Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the results start to come in it’s a great night for UKIP

12467

Comments

  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Ladies and Gentlemen this is something we call a groundbreaker

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0fk6syQ7iY
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Hannan speech very impressive, IMHO. Very good. He's making a better UKIP speech than Farage.

    A very intelligent speech with a clear subtext.

  • Options
    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    corporeal said:

    Polling shows growing support for staying in EU.

    Polling isnt voting...
    No, but it's our best information.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    Polling shows growing support for staying in EU.

    Polling isnt voting...
    No, but it's our best information.
    Errr yes...thats why you have a referendum

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @gabyhinsliff: People moaning about why are we listening to 2nd place @DanHannanMEP ; because he's more interesting than the others. & I disagree with him
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,278
    edited May 2014
    Rochdale Pioneers And North West. UKIP won East and West Midlands, Yorkshire, South East, East and South West
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    Tower Hamlets — probably completely unaware that they're holding up the rest of England in terms of Euro results. Banana republic, allegedly.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,278
    dugierbandier Obama led on leadership and economy in 2008, on leadership in 2012, though behind on economy
  • Options
    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    The. LibDems won their South East seat by only 16 votes.... That was a close call.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Twitter
    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 1m
    Ed Miliband supporter texts me. "God help us all".
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,887
    So the Tories didn't win a single region then? (assuming Labour win London)
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Is Jim Waterson standing in a hole? He must be 4foot 10 and 5 stone wet through.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky News - claiming that An Independence From Europe cost UKIP a third seat in the South East.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821
    AveryLP said:

    Hannan speech very impressive, IMHO. Very good. He's making a better UKIP speech than Farage.

    A very intelligent speech with a clear subtext.

    Yes, he's a very intelligent man.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,278
    Hortence But Blair clearly won the 1994 Euros by comparison
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821
    AndyJS said:

    I alert you that Tower Hamlets have not finished counting the local elections from Thursday...so I am not sure if they will ever finish counting the Euro ballots...

    Yes, they really are a basketcase in every respect.
    A case for primary legislation to put Tower Hamlets under direct rule?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,552
    With London still to come a tory lead of 80K is not going to be enough. But so close...

    Labour must be disappointed about this.
  • Options
    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    Polling shows growing support for staying in EU.

    Polling isnt voting...
    No, but it's our best information.
    Errr yes...thats why you have a referendum

    So what's your point?

    Mine is that UKIP/Hannan are interpreting the election results as a desire to leave the EU, the polling rejects this.

    Your point is what?
  • Options
    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Retweeted by Britain Elects 2014
    Dan Crawford ‏@dancrawford85 19m

    Beginning to think the polls might open for the General Election before Tower Hamlets finishes counting.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    UKIP claiming AIFE cost them a seat in the SW...
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    AndyJS said:

    Sky News - claiming that An Independence From Europe cost UKIP a third seat in the South East.

    South West.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,278
    Fitalass Salmond looking sour on BBC earlier, saying even if Scotland gets a UKIP MEP still a lower UKIP voteshare than rUK
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,322
    AndyJS said:

    Sky News - claiming that An Independence From Europe cost UKIP a third seat in the South East.

    They mean the South West.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,322
    If Con had won that seat in NE instead of Lab then Con would definitely have beaten Lab on seats.
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Labour are going to come 2nd, but now it's all about the rounding - if they're stuck on the same 0dp score as the tories it won't look like 2nd in the graphics.
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Andrew Lilco needs some media training.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,465
    So will Tower Hamlets or the Western Isles declare first (and are these the two most dissimilar councils in the UK?)
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    For me Hannan, Farage and Farron have all been impressive this evening. Labour's spokespeople faded into a uniform, non-descript nothing, Salmond was awful.

    Hung Parliament next year.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,959
    I don't know the figures, but on the BBC map Brighton has turned from Green to Red. Not entirely unexpected, but I'm still unconvinced Lucas can hold on in 2015.
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    For me Hannan, Farage and Farron have all been impressive this evening. Labour's spokespeople faded into a uniform, non-descript nothing, Salmond was awful.

    Hung Parliament next year.

    Agreed.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821
    edited May 2014
    Does anyone have a view on how the final GB vote shares might come out at once London is declared?
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,887
    timmo said:

    The. LibDems won their South East seat by only 16 votes.... That was a close call.

    No 16,000. LD 187,000 Labour 342,000. So they were 187000 - (342000 / 2 ) ahead of the second labour candidate.
    In fact the "last" MEP was actually UKIP's 4th - the LDs had just a little more than a quarter of UKIP's vote.

  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    If the final result is indeed UKIP 29, Lab 24, Con 24, LibDem 7 then none of the polls have really distinguished themselves, although most within the margin of error
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,278
    Danny Alexander Looking shellshocked on BBC, admits an awful night apart from 1 SE MEP
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Hortence But Blair clearly won the 1994 Euros by comparison


    No, Margaret Beckett did.

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    I alert you that Tower Hamlets have not finished counting the local elections from Thursday...so I am not sure if they will ever finish counting the Euro ballots...

    Yes, they really are a basketcase in every respect.
    A case for primary legislation to put Tower Hamlets under direct rule?
    We can only hope.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,796
    Can't be fussed to stay up for London. Green seat must be nailed-on, but what about the LDs?

    Night all...
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821
    maaarsh said:

    For me Hannan, Farage and Farron have all been impressive this evening. Labour's spokespeople faded into a uniform, non-descript nothing, Salmond was awful.

    Hung Parliament next year.

    Agreed.
    Double agreed. I think that's spot on.

    Danny Alexander doing the 1000yd stare right now..
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    AndyJS said:

    Sky News - claiming that An Independence From Europe cost UKIP a third seat in the South East.

    Bond, James Bond, to the rescue.

  • Options
    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Projections from Ity

    PD 41.8%
    5 Stars 21.6
    Forza Italia 16.3
    Lega 6
    Alfano/UDC 4.1
    Tsipras 4.1
    Brothers of Italy 3.4%

    Threshold is at 4%, so 2 lists on the edge
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    maaarsh said:

    Andrew Lilco needs some media training.

    Why so, maaarsh?
    I didn't see him tonight but he usually comes across okay-ish on tv when I've seen him do wonkish economics interviews.

  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,887

    Speedy said:

    So the only regions that UKIP have not won are Scotland, Wales (by a few thousand) and London.

    And the north east!

    And the North West!

  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,199
    Are the BBC genuinely going to go thru this whole broadcast and not mention Northern Ireland once?
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,322
    edited May 2014
    BBC now has a few London numbers.

    Lab 31
    UKIP 19
    Con 18
    LD 12
    Green 11

    Don't know which boroughs the above relate to.
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    GeoffM said:

    maaarsh said:

    Andrew Lilco needs some media training.

    Why so, maaarsh?
    I didn't see him tonight but he usually comes across okay-ish on tv when I've seen him do wonkish economics interviews.

    Nervous, verbose, jittery. Surprising given his prose.
  • Options
    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Danny looks like he's about to cry.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Nuttall on Sky...
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Projections from Ity

    PD 41.8%
    5 Stars 21.6
    Forza Italia 16.3
    Lega 6
    Alfano/UDC 4.1
    Tsipras 4.1
    Brothers of Italy 3.4%

    Threshold is at 4%, so 2 lists on the edge

    That's a good result for Italy, is it not Andrea?

    Comedians in retreat.

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Does anyone have the current total votes in the areas declared so far?
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    PinkNews ‏@pinknews 25m
    Openly gay UKIP MEP elected in Scotland http://p.ink.cx/S7l8o8
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    Well, another sterling performance from PB this evening. Top class work one and all.

    A great win for UKIP, not bad for the Tories, pretty poor for Labour, abysmal for the LDs. But we'll all read too much into this vote. What matters for the GE is where the UKIP votes go and how the no-shows on Thursday swing come next May.
  • Options
    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    peter kellner saying no opposition who is behind on leadership ratings AND economy ratings has ever gone on to form a government. i.e. Ed is toast!

    Until Obama the US never had a black president, and has never had a woman president.

    They used to say no team bottom of the English premier league at Christmas could survive..

    straws and clutching methinks !
    not really, I'm not impressed with Ed or the current Labour party. just think these kind of predictions are pretty worthless.

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    Danny Alexander Looking shellshocked on BBC, admits an awful night apart from 1 SE MEP

    The LDs have won a seat in the SE because it is such a large region with more seats than elsewhere. (I think this is correct but would welcome corrections).
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    For me Hannan, Farage and Farron have all been impressive this evening. Labour's spokespeople faded into a uniform, non-descript nothing, Salmond was awful.

    Hung Parliament next year.

    Agree with that. Glad you included Farron on that list. Thought he was measured and gave a good response.

  • Options
    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Oh Southam you are to much of a spurs supporter. Always on the negative
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,278
    Member of LD executive Michael Todd on BBC now calling for Clegg to go
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,322
    edited May 2014
    London latest:

    Lab 32
    Con 24
    UKIP 17
    Green 10
    LD 9
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    I think UKIP have won 5 regions out of a possible 9 (excluding NI).
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,953
    Feel sorry for Danny! Looks crushed.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821
    Danny Alexander has a face like a slapped arse.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,278
    edited May 2014
    Hortence I think it was quite clear by then Blair was going to win the leadership election, but either way Labour won the Euros as a marker for its general election victory in 1997
  • Options
    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Southam

    With Scotland and London to come it looks like the Tories will finish third in a national election for the first time in their history.
  • Options
    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    viewcode said:

    Are the BBC genuinely going to go thru this whole broadcast and not mention Northern Ireland once?

    Their heart is in Brussels.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Nuttall downplaying UKIP's chances in "Niewirk"...
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,953
    edited May 2014
    Glass of whisky and a revolver on it's way to Clegg?

    (metaphorically speaking of course ;) )
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821
    MikeL said:

    London latest:

    Lab 32
    Con 24
    UKIP 17
    Green 10
    LD 9

    What does that pump out the forecast national GB totals out?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,447
    Beaker following the spin line of "great job by Clegg". Yes, losing 41% of councillors this time and 92% of MEPs is such a triumph
  • Options
    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    AndyJS said:

    Farage looking different tonight somehow. Bigger stature.

    'Cos he's wearing a suit instead of yellow trousers?

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    MikeL said:

    London latest:

    Lab 32
    Con 24
    UKIP 17
    Green 10
    LD 9

    What does that pump out the forecast national GB totals out?
    You'd think those figures with Scotland would put Labour ahead of the Tories overall.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,953
    AndyJS said:
    That's what smoking and drinking does to you! ;)

  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    MikeK said:

    PinkNews ‏@pinknews 25m
    Openly gay UKIP MEP elected in Scotland http://p.ink.cx/S7l8o8

    That's an interesting volte face.
    They tweeted a couple of days ago that a UKIP MEP in Scotland would set back the LGBT "cause"
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014
    Carola said:

    Havent read the link... does it show UKIP would not win tonight as OGH predicted?

    Dont tell me we won despite the snide move????
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    MikeL said:

    London latest:

    Lab 32
    Con 24
    UKIP 17
    Green 10
    LD 9

    Sounds like Labour are certain to come second in the PV then...

    Meh!
  • Options
    HortenceWitheringHortenceWithering Posts: 145
    edited May 2014
    HYUFD said:

    Hortence I think it was quite clear by then Blair was going to win the leadership election, but either way Labour won the Euros as a marker for its general election victory in 1997

    Margaret Beckett was the acting leader of the Labour Party at the time of the 1994 European Elections.

    William Hague won the 1999 European Elections as a marker for his general election victory in 2001. Oh wait.....er......
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    The media seems to be obsessed with printing photos of Farage looking like a braying horse. I think they must think it will decrease Farage's support but the opposite could be true:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10855972/Ukip-storms-European-elections.html
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,322

    MikeL said:

    London latest:

    Lab 32
    Con 24
    UKIP 17
    Green 10
    LD 9

    What does that pump out the forecast national GB totals out?
    Don't know.

    However I think very, very unlikely Lab gets 2 more seats than Con in London.

    So I DECLARE: Con and Lab will tie on seats.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,278
    Nick Robinson UKIP gone up by 13% in 75%+ white areas, only 10% in less white areas
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,953
    AndyJS said:

    MikeL said:

    London latest:

    Lab 32
    Con 24
    UKIP 17
    Green 10
    LD 9

    What does that pump out the forecast national GB totals out?
    You'd think those figures with Scotland would put Labour ahead of the Tories overall.
    Looks like it's gong to finish up:

    UKIP 29% Lab 25% Con 24% Green 8% Lib-Dem LOL!

  • Options
    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Beaker following the spin line of "great job by Clegg". Yes, losing 41% of councillors this time and 92% of MEPs is such a triumph

    The party collectively signed off on the coalition. I went, I was there.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited May 2014
    Wasn't it Margaret Beckett who was the temporary Leader of Labour party during 1994 when Labour last won the Euro election? Tony Blair had yet to be elected as Labour Leader at this point.
    HYUFD said:

    Hortence But Blair clearly won the 1994 Euros by comparison

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    London results being held up by what is being described as a "big turnout" in Tower Hamlets, whatever that might mean. I can't possibly imagine what they're referring to.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821
    >50% turnout in Tower Hamlets?? Hmm.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Dimbleby - "A shambles in Tower Hamlets holding everything up."

    Well said, sir.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,322
    London latest (400,000 votes counted):

    Lab 37
    Con 22
    UKIP 15
    Green 10
    LD 8
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    Tower Hamlets have given up, they're all in the canteen watching David Dimbleby, watching them.

    Waiting for Godot.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    MikeL said:

    London latest:

    Lab 32
    Con 24
    UKIP 17
    Green 10
    LD 9

    What does that pump out the forecast national GB totals out?
    You'd think those figures with Scotland would put Labour ahead of the Tories overall.
    Looks like it's gong to finish up:

    UKIP 29% Lab 25% Con 24% Green 8% Lib-Dem LOL!

    Am I missing something? Even though Labour will do well in London, are the Tories not over performing versus UNS in Scotland? Will that not tip the scales back to the blue camp?

  • Options
    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    isam said:

    Carola said:

    Havent read the link... does it show UKIP would not win tonight as OGH predicted?

    Dont tell me we won despite the snide move????
    Sounds like Ukip might have lost more votes through spoiled votes - people voting for AIFE then realising it was wrong, scrubbing it out and then putting a second cross for Ukip - than actual AIFE votes.

    So the difference in lost votes might actually be a lot bigger than it seems.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    London declaration expected at 2am...
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,158
    So we're been kept waiting by one set of religious nutters in the Western Isles and another set of religious nutters in Tower Hamlets.

    Night everyone.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    maaarsh said:

    GeoffM said:

    maaarsh said:

    Andrew Lilco needs some media training.

    Why so, maaarsh?
    I didn't see him tonight but he usually comes across okay-ish on tv when I've seen him do wonkish economics interviews.

    Nervous, verbose, jittery. Surprising given his prose.
    Thanks for the reply, appreciated. Yes, I'm more familiar with his writing and soft-ball technical economics interviews in the depths of Sky City reports. Never seen him perform in a bear-pit environment.

  • Options
    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Northern Ireland doesn't count until Monday and given the local council results will be pretty much as you were.

    The Conservatives are standing in NI for this Euro election., Be well lucky to grab 10k first preferences.
  • Options
    is that right about Margaret Beckett? Cos thats a great pub quiz question: Name the last Labour leader to win a Euro election?
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,322
    London latest (550,000 votes counted):

    Lab 33
    Con 25
    UKIP 17
    Green 10
    LD 7
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,447
    corporeal said:

    Beaker following the spin line of "great job by Clegg". Yes, losing 41% of councillors this time and 92% of MEPs is such a triumph

    The party collectively signed off on the coalition. I went, I was there.
    And that may have been the right decision at the time. Now that it has literally gutted your party at council level do you agree with the cabal that Clegg should hold on so you can lose a third or more of your councillors running next year, or pull the plug and save something you can rebuild from?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:

    London declaration expected at 2am...

    2am next Thursday, perhaps.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,322
    All Scotland votes are IN the BBC total (except Western Isles).

    Con lead Lab by 80,000 excluding London.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,953
    edited May 2014

    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    MikeL said:

    London latest:

    Lab 32
    Con 24
    UKIP 17
    Green 10
    LD 9

    What does that pump out the forecast national GB totals out?
    You'd think those figures with Scotland would put Labour ahead of the Tories overall.
    Looks like it's gong to finish up:

    UKIP 29% Lab 25% Con 24% Green 8% Lib-Dem LOL!

    Am I missing something? Even though Labour will do well in London, are the Tories not over performing versus UNS in Scotland? Will that not tip the scales back to the blue camp?

    Not sure. The way everyone has been going on about London saving Ed's bacon I just assumed London would get Lab over the line ahead of Con.

    In any case there's really nothing in it and yet again we see Ed Milliband is one of the most ineffective Leaders Of The Opposition in living memory...
  • Options
    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    >50% turnout in Tower Hamlets?? Hmm.

    If Lab didn't have postal votes as a cushion Cerise would be running for the airport as we speak.
This discussion has been closed.