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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the results start to come in it’s a great night for UKIP

SystemSystem Posts: 11,698
edited May 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the results start to come in it’s a great night for UKIP

For the Lib Dems, it could be their worst nightmare, as Tim Farron talks about them having zero MEPs, whilst Doncaster North, Ed Miliband’s seat is won by UKIP, David Herdson suggestion from last week isn’t so outlandish now is it?

Read the full story here


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Comments

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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    UKIP First!
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Tory 2nd
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Labour 3rd. Oh how we laughed.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    Its a terrrrrrrrrible night for the lib dems...
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    One of the few things I agreed about with my ex was our love of the NiN song

    The only one
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,979
    Lib Dems 5th !
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Rob Murray ‏@robmurray11 3m
    East Renfrewshire council: @ScotTories 8,044, Labour: 7,623, SNP: 6,564 #EPScot

    CON win in Jim Murphy's seat.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    Seriously, I'm not being trolled when I'm reading that the Tories could push Labour into third?
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    The Lib Dems best chance of a seat is in London right? If they don't get one there despite all those EU citizens voting, it will be ridiculous.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    FPT:

    To use a SeanT phrase, the flatulent pomposities of the political elite are coming back to haunt them tonight.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,001
    Mr. Eagles, possible, but I suspect the reds will get into second.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @journodave: Over 12,000 Ukip votes in Glasgow, more than 10,000 for the Conservatives. #EP2014
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Seriously, I'm not being trolled when I'm reading that the Tories could push Labour into third?

    Neck and Neck.

    What was the london result last time? The way Scotland is going Labour need a big swing in London to cover for it.

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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    Purple dress?? Is toenails colour blind?
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    A bottle of Crimean champagne in one hand, a cigar in the other and Ozric Tentacles on the cd player.

    It's that sort of night.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,979
    Looks like Farage has a new 'assistant'
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    AIFE cost UKIP and won that seat for the greens by the way. Didn't save OFH's tip though.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    I've always said France was a nation of T*ssers.

    Now they've proved it.

    Front national win France.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @camusson: Ukip still on course for European Parliament seat in Scotland after Glasgow result weighs in with huge chunk of votes #EPScot
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,954
    david_herdson said: Wearing party colours is fair enough on election night.

    I never meant to imply it wasn't, but you see the leaders in particular often colour code throughout the year. It's not something they do universally, but when they have all at once done so it looks bloody silly, as if the cliche of their being no difference between them to the point we need a visual cue to remind us, is true.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,954
    hucks67 said: Nick Clegg is going to find it very difficult to stay as leader of the Lib Dems. I expect to see a resignation speech by Clegg middle of next week. Tim Farron should take over in my opinion.

    If he doesn't go soon in response to the last locals failing to stem the tide of losses, and this near total wipeout (or total wipeout) at the Euros, then not even losing his GE seat could shift him I'd say. No LD would really want the trouble of seeing through the final year of this Coalition, but how can they continue on after a series of results too terrible to even laughable spin as ok?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    BTW - Apologies for the lack of prompt analysis so far.

    Was a terrible time for Mike to go to France and for me to go to a gig.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,979
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Seriously, I'm not being trolled when I'm reading that the Tories could push Labour into third?

    The UKIP-Con-Lab tricast is going to be a value loser.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Scotland so far:

    Scottish National Party 307,509
    Labour 274,243
    Conservative 195,422
    UK Independence Party 109,945
    Green 81,662
    Liberal Democrat 72,167
    Britain First 10,720
    British National Party 7,843
    NO2EU 4,893
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    kle4 said:

    david_herdson said: Wearing party colours is fair enough on election night.

    I never meant to imply it wasn't, but you see the leaders in particular often colour code throughout the year. It's not something they do universally, but when they have all at once done so it looks bloody silly, as if the cliche of their being no difference between them to the point we need a visual cue to remind us, is true.

    I like my orange tie.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    Are Tower Hamlets still counting the local elections? Someone send them a few calculators.
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Scotland so far:

    Scottish National Party 307,509
    Labour 274,243
    Conservative 195,422
    UK Independence Party 109,945
    Green 81,662
    Liberal Democrat 72,167
    Britain First 10,720
    British National Party 7,843
    NO2EU 4,893

    Key is UKIP staying at 1/3rd of SNP, no?
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Turns out the eleven jobs associated with the EU that were most at risk were those of Lib Dem MEPs!!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,979
    edited May 2014
    maaarsh said:

    AIFE cost UKIP and won that seat for the greens by the way. Didn't save OFH's tip though.

    What % of transfer from AIFE -> UKIP is that based on, 100% is unrealistic.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,954
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Seriously, I'm not being trolled when I'm reading that the Tories could push Labour into third?

    Not trolled, but apparently London and othes will see Labour through.

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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited May 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've always said France was a nation of T*ssers.

    Now they've proved it.

    Front national win France.

    France and french is great TSE!!!

    FTR - I got a 4 gcse/standard grade (ask Carnyx or Malcy for translation)

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ERSScotland: Even as the count updates, we're still looking at SNP 2, Lab 2, Con 1 and UKIP 1 #epscot
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The North West will be interesting. Labour ought to just edge it there with Liverpool and Manchester.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    currently the combined Tory\UKIP vote in Scotland is 2k votes behind the SNP and ahead of Labour.
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Seriously, I'm not being trolled when I'm reading that the Tories could push Labour into third?

    Not trolled, but apparently London and othes will see Labour through.

    I wasn't convinced by Kellner. London is, however, possibly the exception because of the exceptionally low UKIP % there. Labour gains in e.g. West Midlands likely to be the same as elsewhere IMO.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SamCoatesTimes: We’re not expecting the result from London until 1am, because Tower Hamlets is still, still, counting. h/t labourlist
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Seriously, I'm not being trolled when I'm reading that the Tories could push Labour into third?

    Not trolled, but apparently London and othes will see Labour through.

    Thanks.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've always said France was a nation of T*ssers.

    Now they've proved it.

    Front national win France.

    Proper scumbag racists. It's funny that the EU would always spin the UK voting for a mainstream right wing party as being evidence of our "island mentality" and we should just leave if we can't play again, but now they'll change their tune completely with France voting for actual fascists.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,360
    My guess is that London will yet again help out a very ordinary Labour campaign and get them into second, if only just.

    The SNP are currently 20K short of that third seat. It is looking increasingly unlikely. I don't know how much this can be read across to the Indyref but it is not exactly nationalism rampant. The Unionist parties are going to have a larger share despite the demise of the Scottish Lib Dems.
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Labour third? A lot of twittering suggesting that.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Hague sounding very old and tired tonight.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,208
    Hague does get it.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,954
    corporeal said:

    kle4 said:

    david_herdson said: Wearing party colours is fair enough on election night.

    I never meant to imply it wasn't, but you see the leaders in particular often colour code throughout the year. It's not something they do universally, but when they have all at once done so it looks bloody silly, as if the cliche of their being no difference between them to the point we need a visual cue to remind us, is true.

    I like my orange tie.
    I'm sure it's nice, but when everyone colour codes in identical dark suits and party specific ties, it just makes me think of the terrific debate of the cloned candidates in an episode of Futurama, John Jackson and Jack Johnson. As I said, merely a pet peeve.

    Now, if you wore all Orange on the other hand...
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    TSE

    You are factually wrong UKIP did not win Ed Milibands seat. They won doncaster. Ed Milibands seat voted solidly Labour.

    So yes, David does seem outlandish.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    UNS forecast update after 6 regions

    UKIP 25
    Con 19
    Lab 20 (third in votes)
    LD 0
    Green 3

    Lab now in third again by 0.4% (on UNS)
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,956
    Can we yet say that there are more Tory MPs in Scotland than there are LD MEPs in Brussels?

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,979
    £2 available to lay on Labour most votes at 1000 if anyone has the float...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,954
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Seriously, I'm not being trolled when I'm reading that the Tories could push Labour into third?

    Not trolled, but apparently London and othes will see Labour through.

    Thanks.
    Don't thank me - I am often very wrong!

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: We’re not expecting the result from London until 1am, because Tower Hamlets is still, still, counting. h/t labourlist

    Big surprise. Tower Hamlets council are an absolute disgrace in every way.
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    I did post a GE projection on the last thread - don't know where it has gone.

    Basically I said Con 41%/Lab 27% Con maj about 30
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    RodCrosby said:

    UNS forecast update after 6 regions

    UKIP 25
    Con 19
    Lab 20 (third in votes)
    LD 0
    Green 3

    Lab now in third again by 0.4% (on UNS)

    Looks to me like it will go to the wire. London should help Labour but it's only one region of 12.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: We’re not expecting the result from London until 1am, because Tower Hamlets is still, still, counting. h/t labourlist

    Big surprise. Tower Hamlets council are an absolute disgrace in every way.
    Is there not going to be an investigation into the turnout nearly doubling in one election cycle? The whole postal voting seems an affront to the secret ballot too.
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    EDWEDW Posts: 6
    How soon can Clegg be binned?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,979
    Tower Hamlets is an embarrassment to London.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,299
    Lab 0.54% ahead of Con on BBC running total.

    Lots still to come from SE - good for Con.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    DavidL said:

    My guess is that London will yet again help out a very ordinary Labour campaign and get them into second, if only just.

    The SNP are currently 20K short of that third seat. It is looking increasingly unlikely. I don't know how much this can be read across to the Indyref but it is not exactly nationalism rampant. The Unionist parties are going to have a larger share despite the demise of the Scottish Lib Dems.

    UKIP are going to be a bigger headache for Better Together than for Yes Scotland.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,956
    DavidL said:

    My guess is that London will yet again help out a very ordinary Labour campaign and get them into second, if only just.

    The SNP are currently 20K short of that third seat. It is looking increasingly unlikely. I don't know how much this can be read across to the Indyref but it is not exactly nationalism rampant. The Unionist parties are going to have a larger share despite the demise of the Scottish Lib Dems.

    Do SNP plus Greens get over 40%?

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    IOS said:

    TSE

    You are factually wrong UKIP did not win Ed Milibands seat. They won doncaster. Ed Milibands seat voted solidly Labour.

    So yes, David does seem outlandish.

    Thanks, have amended the thread header.

    I still have Head Like A Hole and Hurt still ringing in my head
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,954
    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: We’re not expecting the result from London until 1am, because Tower Hamlets is still, still, counting. h/t labourlist

    Big surprise. Tower Hamlets council are an absolute disgrace in every way.
    I have some colleagues who work at that council, it's an absolute basket case I hear.

    And in that case, I am off for the night.

    Junker for Commission President then?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,979
    UKIP could well go into the same group in the EP as the Conservatives.

    I'm serious about that.
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Tories won London last time, so seems likely that Labour will smash the 7% swing they need to stay on pace - may need to do more given how weak they are in Scotland, but looking like they should get home here.

    Pathetically narrow though.
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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Election-data ‏@election_data 11m

    The Conservatives will beat Labour into 2nd place it seems.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,503
    Socrates said:

    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: We’re not expecting the result from London until 1am, because Tower Hamlets is still, still, counting. h/t labourlist

    Big surprise. Tower Hamlets council are an absolute disgrace in every way.
    Is there not going to be an investigation into the turnout nearly doubling in one election cycle? The whole postal voting seems an affront to the secret ballot too.
    You know the answer to that.
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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Wales result (MEP): LAB - 33.6% (1) UKIP - 32.9% (1) CON - 20.8% (1) PC - 15.0% (1) GRN - 5.4% LDEM - 4.0%
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Sources on SKY saying LD will lose SE seat
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Tower Hamlets mayoral election ought to be held again after allegations of posters inside the polling booths promoting one of the candidates.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,360
    SouthamObserver said:

    DavidL said:

    My guess is that London will yet again help out a very ordinary Labour campaign and get them into second, if only just.

    The SNP are currently 20K short of that third seat. It is looking increasingly unlikely. I don't know how much this can be read across to the Indyref but it is not exactly nationalism rampant. The Unionist parties are going to have a larger share despite the demise of the Scottish Lib Dems.

    Do SNP plus Greens get over 40%?

    No. About 36% at the moment. As I say not unencouraging for a unionist.
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    NIGE!
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,299
    Why doesn't BBC have ANY London results?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,377
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've always said France was a nation of T*ssers.

    .

    Racist!!
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Thrasher thinks LDs have lost their SE seat...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,979
    UKIP won't sit with FN, FN say Jobbik and Golden Dawn are too right wing even for them !
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @skynewsniall: UKIP take the sixth seat
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    SKY currently Con 24.2% v Lab 22.9%......
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,001
    Right, time for bed, as Zebedee said.

    Night everyone.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited May 2014
    OFFICIAL-

    Lib Dems only allowed to talk french from now on.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,127
    Socrates said:

    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: We’re not expecting the result from London until 1am, because Tower Hamlets is still, still, counting. h/t labourlist

    Big surprise. Tower Hamlets council are an absolute disgrace in every way.
    Is there not going to be an investigation into the turnout nearly doubling in one election cycle? The whole postal voting seems an affront to the secret ballot too.
    Embrace your inner multicultural and appreciate how the electoral practices of Bangladesh are enriching British politics.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    TSE

    Every council ward in Eds seat voted Labour. He will win by a landslide!
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,956
    edited May 2014
    DavidL said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    DavidL said:

    My guess is that London will yet again help out a very ordinary Labour campaign and get them into second, if only just.

    The SNP are currently 20K short of that third seat. It is looking increasingly unlikely. I don't know how much this can be read across to the Indyref but it is not exactly nationalism rampant. The Unionist parties are going to have a larger share despite the demise of the Scottish Lib Dems.

    Do SNP plus Greens get over 40%?

    No. About 36% at the moment. As I say not unencouraging for a unionist.

    There's certainly no tidal wave for the nationalist parties, is there?

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,979
    RodCrosby said:

    Thrasher thinks LDs have lost their SE seat...

    Bollocks - seems I overestimated the Lib Dems ! And lost a fiver on them !

    Truly incredible though.
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    marke09 said:

    Election-data ‏@election_data 11m

    The Conservatives will beat Labour into 2nd place it seems.

    Though they then tweeted later that they had meant "it seems?".
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,293
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    IOS said:

    TSE

    You are factually wrong UKIP did not win Ed Milibands seat. They won doncaster. Ed Milibands seat voted solidly Labour.

    So yes, David does seem outlandish.

    Thanks, have amended the thread header.

    I still have Head Like A Hole and Hurt still ringing in my head
    Did Trent dedicate them to Nick Clegg and his Party of In?

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,979
    Where's @Marksenior Hope he hasn't done too much money on his Lib Dem seat bets !
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    East Dunbartonshire - SNP: 8,134 votes, Labour: 7,475, Conservatives: 5,401

    That is Jo Swinson's seat.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,299
    Lab 0.68% ahead of Con with NOTHING from London.

    Surely that means Lab must beat Con.
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've always said France was a nation of T*ssers.

    Now they've proved it.

    Front national win France.

    Marine le Pen is a very different politician to her (undoubtedly unsavoury) father. She could be the Gerry Adams/Alex Salmond that leads a reprehensible and downright nasty party into respectable government.

    We have seen the same process dozens of times, elsewhere.
    Marine is the acceptable face of a deeply unacceptable party.
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    RepublicanToryRepublicanTory Posts: 563
    Pulpstar said:

    Tower Hamlets is an embarrassment to London.

    The current Postal Voting system is an embarrassment to the UK
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @michaelsavage: If the Tories come second, it will embarrass the pollsters, as well as Labour..!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,979
    AndyJS said:

    The Tower Hamlets mayoral election ought to be held again after allegations of posters inside the polling booths promoting one of the candidates.

    I'll back Lutfur again if they do.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Pulpstar said:

    Where's @Marksenior Hope he hasn't done too much money on his Lib Dem seat bets !

    I think he put his mortgage on more that 2 LD MEPs.

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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,503
    Nigel spot-on in his analysis of the impact of UKIP's win on the UK domestic political scene.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    RochdalePioneers said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    IOS said:

    TSE

    You are factually wrong UKIP did not win Ed Milibands seat. They won doncaster. Ed Milibands seat voted solidly Labour.

    So yes, David does seem outlandish.

    Thanks, have amended the thread header.

    I still have Head Like A Hole and Hurt still ringing in my head
    Did Trent dedicate them to Nick Clegg and his Party of In?

    MEPs: Something I Can Never Have,
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    MarqueeMark said:

    SKY currently Con 24.2% v Lab 22.9%......

    I make it 24.3% to 23.9%...

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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,127
    IOS said:

    TSE

    You are factually wrong UKIP did not win Ed Milibands seat. They won doncaster. Ed Milibands seat voted solidly Labour.

    So yes, David does seem outlandish.

    Indeed. EdM's tireless constituency work ensures a guaranteed Labour vote in his constituency.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Michael Thrasher on Sky News - the last time a party other than Con and Lab topped the poll in a national election was the 1906 Liberal landslide, with Henry Campbell-Bannerman as PM.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,884
    Why do people think there is any chance whatsoever of Labour finishing 3rd?

    IMHO Lab will be circa 26% and Con 22 or 23%
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    If Labour do finish third, the morning thread will be delayed for a while.

    I will have a damaged a rib laughing.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,956
    Farage is very good. There's no denying that.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: Ed Miliband should step down as Labour leader… says the Liverpool Echo http://t.co/FN0t73TXbh
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Glasgow result
    Labour: 45,676, SNP: 37,820, Greens: 15,359, UKIP: 12,638, Conservatives: 10,985, Lib Dems: 3,830.
This discussion has been closed.