Hannah describing the elephant in the room. Regardless of national % UKIP will split the Tories vote and let Labour in. And with vast swathes of the country switching from blue to purple as shown on Emily Mmmmmmmmmaitless's map, dismissing Labour's +9% as rubbish seems rather silly. Not with the kippers running amok
If UKIP is splitting the Tory vote, you ought to be damned worried if any of that 30%+ starts going back, given that Con and Lab are neck and neck.
Except that isn't the case, as you and I both know. In reality, UKIP is taking votes from Labour too, and in large numbers (yes, they're up on 2009 but that's not saying much).
1. Tories culd win some back, but only if they pledge to hold the referendum without a futile attempt at renegotiation with a pledge to vote out. Otherwise its Shapps Green restating his one line about "only we can give you a referendum" that no kipper voters are listening to. As it doesn't seem remotely likely I'm reasonably confident that UKIP aren't going to melt away. 2. UKIP take votes off us mainly in seats where we can afford to lose the votes like Rotherham. And unlike ex Tory kipper voters who've heard the Tories "please come back" appeal repeatedly, Labour haven't formulated a plea yet never mind had a chance to wear it out. 3. All of the "not good enough" comments are in comparison to 3 party shares rather than the 4 party reality of no. Labour 9% up with gains across the country, Tories 4% down and kippers 12% up all across the country means that % share is even less relevant than ever. Its where you bank the votes that counts.
Of course I'd be delighted with Labour well ahead. But as losing governments on 29% never ever win the forthcoming election allegedly, I'll take what we've got and cheat on the anti-politics Farage machine.
With this Conservative result tonight, its going to get ever more harder to spin that all Ed Miliband and Labour have to do is turn up at the next GE and they will get the keys to No10 with a majority or as the largest party.....
What does that pump out the forecast national GB totals out?
You'd think those figures with Scotland would put Labour ahead of the Tories overall.
Looks like it's gong to finish up:
UKIP 29% Lab 25% Con 24% Green 8% Lib-Dem LOL!
Thanks. If true, that's an impressive rearguard action by the Conservatives.
Bang on the money with that comment. The whole SNP campaign was run on gaining a third MEP with a keep UKIP out of Scotland ticket, Salmond and the SNP Government were desperate to be in a position to spin that they had been immune to any UKIP surge elsewhere in the UK. And they can't blame the only right leaning party in Scotland for that failure as our vote held up strongly despite the UKIP performance.
SNP were praying that UKIP wouldn't win a seat apparently.
It would have helped if the SNP had actually ran a European campaign. I certainly didn't get a Freepost election address from them, and my other Scotland contacts in "the other place" report similar.
Does this result mean that the brakes will be applied to the relentless rush for 'ever closer union', or will the powers that be ignore it and carry on as usual?
davidherdson Blair would have won in 1994 had had he been leader a few months earlier, Brown and Callaghan both lost and Kinnock lost the 1984 euro elections which Thatcher won, but won the 1989 Euro elections, but Major was not leader then but Thatcher in decline
Perhaps he already sat down with the Mess Webley and bottle of whisky?
For any other officer contemplating the honourable way out please remember that it's a .445 calibre so you should put down newspaper first or you'll make a nasty stain in the carpet. Your fellow officers will appreciate details like that. Traditionally it's in the third drawer down in the anteroom desk.
(all metaphorical of course before anyone takes that seriously)
How the hell can it take Tower Hamlets so fucking long to count the votes ?
Can they read English there ?
I'm picturing all the Lab and TH1 bods scowling at each other around a table counting only one stack of votes at a time and everyone checking every one.
Does this result mean that the brakes will be applied to the relentless rush for 'ever closer union', or will the powers that be ignore it and carry on as usual?
The blonde Labour talking head on Sky has just been saying that the solution was More Europe.
If there was an election contest where Nick Griffin and Ed Miliband were the only candidates and Dan said he was voting for Ed, I'd only be certain it was true if Dan showed me his filled in ballot paper before I put it into the ballot box myself.
Joan Crawford and Bette Davis were the best of buddies compared to Dan's loathing for ED.
So how does this equate with the msm's hoped for UKIP =17% nationally?
Borrowed Mr L. Rahman's calculator?
17% was for the Locals.
UKIP is on 29% in the Euros.
Perhaps they overlooked the number of 3member London wards where UKIP stood (only) one candidate? Surely they couldn't have overlooked its effect on overall voter totals..
So how does this equate with the msm's hoped for UKIP =17% nationally?
Borrowed Mr L. Rahman's calculator?
17% was for the Locals.
UKIP is on 29% in the Euros.
Perhaps they overlooked the number of 3member London wards where UKIP stood (only) one candidate? Surely they couldn't have overlooked its effect on overall voter totals..
Does this result mean that the brakes will be applied to the relentless rush for 'ever closer union', or will the powers that be ignore it and carry on as usual?
So how does this equate with the msm's hoped for UKIP =17% nationally?
Borrowed Mr L. Rahman's calculator?
17% was for the Locals.
UKIP is on 29% in the Euros.
Perhaps they overlooked the number of 3member London wards where UKIP stood (only) one candidate? Surely they couldn't have overlooked its effect on overall voter totals..
Didn't some people on Friday say that there was a poll saying 41% of people planned to vote for a party other than UKIP in the locals but UKIP in the Euros (or something) and thus calculate 29% from the 17% in the locals?
I'm a bit drunk, so hopefully you know what I mean.
SKY given up waiting for Tower Hamlets and gone home an hour early
The saving grace is that it means we get to watch the gorgeous Lukwesa Burak on Sky News. When she followed me on Twitter recently I was over the moon.
So how does this equate with the msm's hoped for UKIP =17% nationally?
Borrowed Mr L. Rahman's calculator?
17% was for the Locals.
UKIP is on 29% in the Euros.
Perhaps they overlooked the number of 3member London wards where UKIP stood (only) one candidate? Surely they couldn't have overlooked its effect on overall voter totals..
Could they?
No - they use highest vote in multi-member wards.
Interesting - got a link, please?
No, sorry - was posted on here sometime on Friday.
I feel I should offer a note of congratulation to the kippers on here. A stunning result. Ridiculously so. I honestly think some sort of tacit deal is almost certain now in the vein of the Labour and Co-operative parties
So how does this equate with the msm's hoped for UKIP =17% nationally?
Borrowed Mr L. Rahman's calculator?
17% was for the Locals.
UKIP is on 29% in the Euros.
Perhaps they overlooked the number of 3member London wards where UKIP stood (only) one candidate? Surely they couldn't have overlooked its effect on overall voter totals..
Could they?
No - they use highest vote in multi-member wards.
Interesting - got a link, please?
No, sorry - was posted on here sometime on Friday.
What would the Tories give for 50,000 NI votes!! Looks like London has saved Eds job
No, Ed is going nowhere whatever happens unfortunately.
No idea. At this stage Andy Burnham would probably work best, but there's no outstanding candidate. However, it's hard to think of many who would be less convincing than Ed. He truly is a liability.
Oh dear. Bogdanor in the "UKIP voters will realise they've been silly and go home to the Tories" camp. I expect much head scratching next year after this doesn't happen.
Whilst there are still some people here I'd just like to express my appreciation to everyone who has posted on PB for an excellent and informative night. The last few result threads have seen the site at its best. Thank you all.
Oh dear. Bogdanor in the "UKIP voters will realise they've been silly and go home to the Tories" camp. I expect much head scratching next year after this doesn't happen.
So you think UKIP will get 29% at the GE?
If so, go to a bookmaker and if you're right you can become a millionaire very easily.
All you are doing is posting what you WANT to happen.
You're just like football fans predicting their team will win or kids cheering on their favourite pop group.
If you really believe what you are posting - go down to the bookies.
So how does this equate with the msm's hoped for UKIP =17% nationally?
Borrowed Mr L. Rahman's calculator?
17% was for the Locals.
UKIP is on 29% in the Euros.
Perhaps they overlooked the number of 3member London wards where UKIP stood (only) one candidate? Surely they couldn't have overlooked its effect on overall voter totals..
Could they?
No - they use highest vote in multi-member wards.
Interesting - got a link, please?
No, sorry - was posted on here sometime on Friday.
Euro sceptic MPs in marginal constituencies will be 'allowed' to run on a joint party ticket, perhaps? Tories to pull out of Rochdale, Doncaster? It will hapoen
Oh dear. Bogdanor in the "UKIP voters will realise they've been silly and go home to the Tories" camp. I expect much head scratching next year after this doesn't happen.
So you think UKIP will get 29% at the GE?
If so, go to a bookmaker and if you're right you can become a millionaire very easily.
All you are doing is posting what you WANT to happen.
You're just like football fans predicting their team will win or kids cheering on their favourite pop group.
If you really believe what you are posting - go down to the bookies.
I tell you this, and I say it as a die-hard left-libertarian who hates UKIP's policies: it's getting increasingly difficult to see how the LDs can be odds on to beat UKIP in votes in 2015. Maybe the LDs will pick up loads of votes, but so far they really really aren't recovering even as the Tories do.
Oh dear. Bogdanor in the "UKIP voters will realise they've been silly and go home to the Tories" camp. I expect much head scratching next year after this doesn't happen.
So you think UKIP will get 29% at the GE?
If so, go to a bookmaker and if you're right you can become a millionaire very easily.
All you are doing is posting what you WANT to happen.
You're just like football fans predicting their team will win or kids cheering on their favourite pop group.
If you really believe what you are posting - go down to the bookies.
I tell you this, and I say it as a die-hard left-libertarian who hates UKIP's policies: it's getting increasingly difficult to see how the LDs can be odds on to beat UKIP in votes in 2015. Maybe the LDs will pick up loads of votes, but so far they really really aren't recovering even as the Tories do.
I think it's a close call. If I had to bet on it I would say:
I remember Tory leadership in 1975 where it was assumed that Whitelaw had it in the bag and that Maggie was mocked by many until 78/79 where it was thought she had no chance of winning the next GE.
Obama and Attlee were no hopers in their various ways, Salmond could never win an overall majority under the Scottish PR system.
The only certainty about politics is that there are none.
What would the Tories give for 50,000 NI votes!! Looks like London has saved Eds job
No, Ed is going nowhere whatever happens unfortunately.
No idea. At this stage Andy Burnham would probably work best, but there's no outstanding candidate. However, it's hard to think of many who would be less convincing than Ed. He truly is a liability.
Dadge As Farage said, Cameron will not do a deal with UKIP as he considers them 'the lower orders', unlike Clegg who is descended from Russian aristocracy
he has been useless at holding the Tories feet to the fire on what is an issue that is normally a strength for Labour and a weakness for the Conservative Party.
Oh dear. Bogdanor in the "UKIP voters will realise they've been silly and go home to the Tories" camp. I expect much head scratching next year after this doesn't happen.
So you think UKIP will get 29% at the GE?
If so, go to a bookmaker and if you're right you can become a millionaire very easily.
All you are doing is posting what you WANT to happen.
You're just like football fans predicting their team will win or kids cheering on their favourite pop group.
If you really believe what you are posting - go down to the bookies.
I tell you this, and I say it as a die-hard left-libertarian who hates UKIP's policies: it's getting increasingly difficult to see how the LDs can be odds on to beat UKIP in votes in 2015. Maybe the LDs will pick up loads of votes, but so far they really really aren't recovering even as the Tories do.
I think it's a close call. If I had to bet on it I would say:
LD 12, UKIP 9
I agree it's still fairly close, but as time goes on and the LDs actually underperform their polling and expectations I'm starting to wonder if they'll really get double figures at the next election. And if they don't I'd make UKIP slim favourites, not 2.38 outsiders,
So how does this equate with the msm's hoped for UKIP =17% nationally?
Borrowed Mr L. Rahman's calculator?
17% was for the Locals.
UKIP is on 29% in the Euros.
Perhaps they overlooked the number of 3member London wards where UKIP stood (only) one candidate? Surely they couldn't have overlooked its effect on overall voter totals..
Could they?
No - they use highest vote in multi-member wards.
Interesting - got a link, please?
No, sorry - was posted on here sometime on Friday.
HYUFD Mark Senior - Depends if they calculate based on total overall result, or highest vote in a multi-member ward. In any case in 2012 the LDs put up a candidate in Cardigan Mwaldan as well as Cardigan Teifi and Llangeitho and Llansantffraid which they did not do in 2008. Although they did not put up a candidate in Aberystwyth Bronglais, Llandyfriog and Trefeurig unlike 2008, overall they contested one more ward net and put up 2 candidates in Aberystwyth Penpercau in 2012 compared to one in 2008
Mark Senior A few of the wards are multi member , the no of candidates is not important , it is the number of wards fought that will effect the voting shares .
Dadge As Farage said, Cameron will not do a deal with UKIP as he considers them 'the lower orders', unlike Clegg who is descended from Russian aristocracy
Necessity is the mutha of invention. He is, first and foremost, a career politician with nowhere to go but into history. He is not ready to yet do so. Q.E.D
Dadge As Farage said, Cameron will not do a deal with UKIP as he considers them 'the lower orders', unlike Clegg who is descended from Russian aristocracy
Necessity is the mutha of invention. He is, first and foremost, a career politician with nowhere to go but into history. He is not ready to yet do so. Q.E.D
A Con/Kip pact would harm both parties, neither will agree to one.
With this Conservative result tonight, its going to get ever more harder to spin that all Ed Miliband and Labour have to do is turn up at the next GE and they will get the keys to No10 with a majority or as the largest party.....
What does that pump out the forecast national GB totals out?
You'd think those figures with Scotland would put Labour ahead of the Tories overall.
Looks like it's gong to finish up:
UKIP 29% Lab 25% Con 24% Green 8% Lib-Dem LOL!
Thanks. If true, that's an impressive rearguard action by the Conservatives.
Bang on the money with that comment. The whole SNP campaign was run on gaining a third MEP with a keep UKIP out of Scotland ticket, Salmond and the SNP Government were desperate to be in a position to spin that they had been immune to any UKIP surge elsewhere in the UK. And they can't blame the only right leaning party in Scotland for that failure as our vote held up strongly despite the UKIP performance.
SNP were praying that UKIP wouldn't win a seat apparently.
It would have helped if the SNP had actually ran a European campaign. I certainly didn't get a Freepost election address from them, and my other Scotland contacts in "the other place" report similar.
Yeah that's what I'm saying. There is a second Ukip erm "alternative" party in London with a similar name so the AIFE vote percentage is likely to end up lower in London.
Euro sceptic MPs in marginal constituencies will be 'allowed' to run on a joint party ticket, perhaps? Tories to pull out of Rochdale, Doncaster? It will hapoen
No it won't. The Conservatives won#t pull out of any seats.
Comments
Lab 33
Con 24
UKIP 20
Green 9
LD 6
Lab now 3,000 behind Con in whole of UK with approx 50% (?) of London to come.
Scotland will be declaring in the morning. London will hopefully be declaring in forty-five minutes...
2. UKIP take votes off us mainly in seats where we can afford to lose the votes like Rotherham. And unlike ex Tory kipper voters who've heard the Tories "please come back" appeal repeatedly, Labour haven't formulated a plea yet never mind had a chance to wear it out.
3. All of the "not good enough" comments are in comparison to 3 party shares rather than the 4 party reality of no. Labour 9% up with gains across the country, Tories 4% down and kippers 12% up all across the country means that % share is even less relevant than ever. Its where you bank the votes that counts.
Of course I'd be delighted with Labour well ahead. But as losing governments on 29% never ever win the forthcoming election allegedly, I'll take what we've got and cheat on the anti-politics Farage machine.
So how does this equate with the msm's hoped for UKIP =17% nationally?
Borrowed Mr L. Rahman's calculator?
Perhaps your loyalties are misplaced?
For any other officer contemplating the honourable way out please remember that it's a .445 calibre so you should put down newspaper first or you'll make a nasty stain in the carpet. Your fellow officers will appreciate details like that. Traditionally it's in the third drawer down in the anteroom desk.
(all metaphorical of course before anyone takes that seriously)
UKIP is on 29% in the Euros.
NoOffenceAlan The SNP were pushing hard to take it
And there are 7 LD MPs in London!
Thanks Rod. Well, at least it'll keep Ed in position for the requisite 11 months.
Joan Crawford and Bette Davis were the best of buddies compared to Dan's loathing for ED.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-27566080
Could they?
Glenda Jackson and Myra Hindley's mother need to set up a support group.
I'm a bit drunk, so hopefully you know what I mean.
I honestly think some sort of tacit deal is almost certain now in the vein of the Labour and Co-operative parties
Lab 33
Con 24
UKIP 20
Green 9
LD 6
Lab now 12,000 ahead in total across UK.
Lab 3.15
Con 4.0
NOM 2.28
Where's a bookmaker when you need one?
***washes out mouth with sugar soap***
And a party which tolerates public abuse of its opponents on the sole grounds of their race, nationality or religion is not a party I want in power.
If the people elect such a party, I will simply return to living outside the UK.
(lolz)
A bit like David Cameron promising his referendum.
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu-regions/E15000007
Not even replacing EdM will save them in 2015.
Popular votes:
Con 39,302 (39.01%)
Lab 36,213 (35.95%)
Green 11,310 (11.23%)
LD 8,115 (8.06%)
UKIP 4,433 (4.40%)
Changes since 2010 locals:
Con -1.82%
Lab +5.72%
Green +5.02%
LD -11.56%
UKIP +4.40%
If so, go to a bookmaker and if you're right you can become a millionaire very easily.
All you are doing is posting what you WANT to happen.
You're just like football fans predicting their team will win or kids cheering on their favourite pop group.
If you really believe what you are posting - go down to the bookies.
Veracity?
PP 26% (-16.2%) 16 seats (-8) (EPP)
PSOE 23% (-15.8%) 14 (-9) (S&D)
IU-ICV 10% (+6.3%) 6 (+4) ( 5 GUE-NGL, 1 Greens/EFA)
PODEMOS 7.95% 5 (+5)!!! (GUE-NGL)
UPyD 6.5% (+3.6%) 4 (+3) (NI)
CiU+PNV+CC 5.45% (+0.35%) 3 (nc) (2 ALDE, 1 EPP)
ERC 4.1% 2 (+1) (Greens/EFA)
Cs 3.2% 2 (+2) (NI)
EHBildu+BNG 2.1% 1 (+1) (?)
Compromís+Equo 1.9% 1 (+1) (Greens/EFA)
I have no skin in this particular game.
Tories to pull out of Rochdale, Doncaster?
It will hapoen
LD 12, UKIP 9
Obama and Attlee were no hopers in their various ways, Salmond could never win an overall majority under the Scottish PR system.
The only certainty about politics is that there are none.
I thought everyone was up in arms about gay marriage?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu-regions/E15000007
1.23% UK EPP
1.16% AIFE
Whole UK - AIFE 1.51%.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/447/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-hung-parliament-maintains-its-favourite-status-in-the-gener/p1
HYUFD
Mark Senior - Depends if they calculate based on total overall result, or highest vote in a multi-member ward. In any case in 2012 the LDs put up a candidate in Cardigan Mwaldan as well as Cardigan Teifi and Llangeitho and Llansantffraid which they did not do in 2008. Although they did not put up a candidate in Aberystwyth Bronglais, Llandyfriog and Trefeurig unlike 2008, overall they contested one more ward net and put up 2 candidates in Aberystwyth Penpercau in 2012 compared to one in 2008
Mark Senior
A few of the wards are multi member , the no of candidates is not important , it is the number of wards fought that will effect the voting shares .
He is, first and foremost, a career politician with nowhere to go but into history. He is not ready to yet do so.
Q.E.D
Which ones lol...
Not sure if that's relevant to any bets.