Rob Ford (England) @robfordmancs 19m Labour up more than 15 points in most ethnically diverse areas, up 6 in least diverse. UKIP up 13 in most white areas, 8 in least white
Yeah that's what I'm saying. There is a second Ukip erm "alternative" party in London with a similar name so the AIFE vote percentage is likely to end up lower in London.
Not sure if that's relevant to any bets.
AIFE over 1.5 bets killed by AIFE spoiler party LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
So how does this equate with the msm's hoped for UKIP =17% nationally?
Borrowed Mr L. Rahman's calculator?
17% was for the Locals.
UKIP is on 29% in the Euros.
Perhaps they overlooked the number of 3member London wards where UKIP stood (only) one candidate? Surely they couldn't have overlooked its effect on overall voter totals..
Could they?
No - they use highest vote in multi-member wards.
Interesting - got a link, please?
No, sorry - was posted on here sometime on Friday.
HYUFD Mark Senior - Depends if they calculate based on total overall result, or highest vote in a multi-member ward. In any case in 2012 the LDs put up a candidate in Cardigan Mwaldan as well as Cardigan Teifi and Llangeitho and Llansantffraid which they did not do in 2008. Although they did not put up a candidate in Aberystwyth Bronglais, Llandyfriog and Trefeurig unlike 2008, overall they contested one more ward net and put up 2 candidates in Aberystwyth Penpercau in 2012 compared to one in 2008
Mark Senior A few of the wards are multi member , the no of candidates is not important , it is the number of wards fought that will effect the voting shares .
Geoff - thanks.
Mr Senior seems confident. Can't myself see how vote share cannot be affected when comparing parties that stand different ratios of candidates in the same wards. Maybe its quantum..
Euro sceptic MPs in marginal constituencies will be 'allowed' to run on a joint party ticket, perhaps? Tories to pull out of Rochdale, Doncaster? It will hapoen
No it won't. The Conservatives won#t pull out of any seats.
Euro sceptic MPs in marginal constituencies will be 'allowed' to run on a joint party ticket, perhaps? Tories to pull out of Rochdale, Doncaster? It will hapoen
No it won't. The Conservatives won#t pull out of any seats.
Yeah, right.
They won't.
Firstly there'd be a party riot if they did. Cameron'd also get a shedload of questions about admitting failure etc.
Secondly they're thinking long term, hoping that UKIP get 0-2 seats at GE2015 and their voters will get disheartened and desert them.
I thought everyone was up in arms about gay marriage?
UKIP grabbing that demographic? Mmm...I dunno. They were very anti-Gay marriage, but not exactly overtly courting the religion vote.
Farage suggested letting Christian refugees from Syria into the country.
Remember, Christians in the UK are being asked for funds to support refugees in Syria (and other places). He also was against the military intervention in Syria, but Miliband thankfully squashed that.
Euro sceptic MPs in marginal constituencies will be 'allowed' to run on a joint party ticket, perhaps? Tories to pull out of Rochdale, Doncaster? It will hapoen
No it won't. The Conservatives won#t pull out of any seats.
Yeah, right.
They won't.
Firstly there'd be a party riot if they did. Cameron'd also get a shedload of questions about admitting failure etc.
Secondly they're thinking long term, hoping that UKIP get 0-2 seats at GE2015 and their voters will get disheartened and desert them.
Tories are a two century old party of government.
David Cameron, sponsor of the UAF, will do whatever it takes (subject to not getting convicted).
Euro sceptic MPs in marginal constituencies will be 'allowed' to run on a joint party ticket, perhaps? Tories to pull out of Rochdale, Doncaster? It will hapoen
No it won't. The Conservatives won#t pull out of any seats.
Yeah, right.
They won't.
Firstly there'd be a party riot if they did. Cameron'd also get a shedload of questions about admitting failure etc.
Secondly they're thinking long term, hoping that UKIP get 0-2 seats at GE2015 and their voters will get disheartened and desert them.
Tories are a two century old party of government.
David Cameron, sponsor of the UAF, will do whatever it takes (subject to not getting convicted).
Euro sceptic MPs in marginal constituencies will be 'allowed' to run on a joint party ticket, perhaps? Tories to pull out of Rochdale, Doncaster? It will hapoen
No it won't. The Conservatives won#t pull out of any seats.
Yeah, right.
They won't.
Firstly there'd be a party riot if they did. Cameron'd also get a shedload of questions about admitting failure etc.
Secondly they're thinking long term, hoping that UKIP get 0-2 seats at GE2015 and their voters will get disheartened and desert them.
Tories are a two century old party of government.
David Cameron, sponsor of the UAF, will do whatever it takes (subject to not getting convicted).
Avery may, or may not, peel off..
I don't see a repeat of the 1918 election.
Neither do I. The LD's blew the coupon election with their internal opposition antics in 2011-2.
The 50's sinclair libs however is a different model.
I honestly have no idea how the election is going to go. The Tories' utterly mediocre (albeit not disastrous) performance shows there really is no "feelgood factor" because of the supposed economic recovery. On the other hand, there is clearly very little enthusiasm for Labour outside of London.
The UKIP voters hold the election in their hands -- although I don't expect them to collapse completely, they will probably fade to about 10-12%, so where the rest of those voters go to will decide it. I personally think, contrary to popular belief, Labour have potential to score with a crop of those voters, since a potential anti-business, anti-status quo platform could really resonate with many of the Kippers who are just anti-establishment. That said, I have to wonder whether they will ever be receptive to that message coming from Ed, who, lovely guy though he is, has been irredeemably defined in people's imaginations as a middle-class alien who doesn't understand "normal people". Labour have much to ponder.
Euro sceptic MPs in marginal constituencies will be 'allowed' to run on a joint party ticket, perhaps? Tories to pull out of Rochdale, Doncaster? It will hapoen
No it won't. The Conservatives won#t pull out of any seats.
Yeah, right.
They won't.
Firstly there'd be a party riot if they did. Cameron'd also get a shedload of questions about admitting failure etc.
Secondly they're thinking long term, hoping that UKIP get 0-2 seats at GE2015 and their voters will get disheartened and desert them.
Tories are a two century old party of government.
David Cameron, sponsor of the UAF, will do whatever it takes (subject to not getting convicted).
Avery may, or may not, peel off..
I don't see a repeat of the 1918 election.
Neither do I. The LD's blew the coupon election with their internal opposition antics in 2011-2.
The 50's sinclair libs however is a different model.
The LDs never wanted or would have gone for a coupon election.
By the 50s they'd already long merged in all but name and came after decades of co-operation. That came out of the National Government in the 20s/30s, which was a different situation again.
The Liberal Nationals had a base of MPs to offer. UKIP won't. It's not going to be on the table for at least a couple of elections.
Pulpstar As Danny565 and MikeL have shown the Scottish results are all in apart from Western Islands (which does not count on a Sunday). Official results from Scotland at noon tomorrow, though seems certain UKIP has its first Scottish MEP, night!
Note that the huge pile-up of Lab votes in Tower Hamlets is meaningless as far as GE is concerned as they will all be surplus - ie Lab wins the seats anyway.
If 82% of "An Independence From Europe" voters in London, and 66% of them in the South West, had voted for UKIP instead of AIFE, then UKIP would have won an extra 2 seats and the Green Party would have won 1 instead of 3.
I hope that those AIFE were indeed UKIP supporters who genuinely got confused, and that they were not genuinely wanting to support a splinter party. It serves them right.
I don't think that will hold but it's now a toss-up re who is favourite.
The earthquake is over.
A few tiles have been dislodged from the roof, the extension has collapsed but the structure remains sound. There is no need to move to alternative accommodation.
Pulpstar But also shows Labour losing votes in the Midlands and North to UKIP too, and the rising Green vote could see some leftwing Labour voters defect
John Looney Indeed, should take more care to read over the ballot paper next time, though they still did not stop UKIP coming top
Surbiton Labour did win the 1994 elections convincingly before they took power in 1997 and Blair only took over as leader a month after the vote when he was elected leader. The idea that 'it was Beckett what won it' is farcical, she was simply holding the fort!
I don't think that will hold but it's now a toss-up re who is favourite.
The earthquake is over.
A few tiles have been dislodged from the roof, the extension has collapsed but the structure remains sound. There is no need to move to alternative accommodation.
After a large earthquake, there are generally aftershocks, and the probability of another large one occurring is dramatically increased. (your bulletin from the Pacific Ring of Fire)
Comments
Labour up more than 15 points in most ethnically diverse areas, up 6 in least diverse. UKIP up 13 in most white areas, 8 in least white
Mr Senior seems confident. Can't myself see how vote share cannot be affected when comparing parties that stand different ratios of candidates in the same wards. Maybe its quantum..
Lab up 5 points in areas with fewest students, up 11 points in areas with most students
Some stats while we wait: #UKIP up 16 points on 2009 in areas with fewest uni grads, up 8 in areas with most
Coming back tomorrow.
LD vote in Euro 2014 barely higher than BNP vote in 2009.
CON NOW FAVOURITES
Labour claiming they have 50% of the vote in London. Might win 4 seats.
Yeah, right.
Lab has 33% in London with approx. 50% counted.
That implies 67% in the rest - would seem extraordinary.
http://moderngov.kingston.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=69&RPID=13540084
Firstly there'd be a party riot if they did. Cameron'd also get a shedload of questions about admitting failure etc.
Secondly they're thinking long term, hoping that UKIP get 0-2 seats at GE2015 and their voters will get disheartened and desert them.
Remember, Christians in the UK are being asked for funds to support refugees in Syria (and other places). He also was against the military intervention in Syria, but Miliband thankfully squashed that.
David Cameron, sponsor of the UAF, will do whatever it takes (subject to not getting convicted).
Avery may, or may not, peel off..
AIFE 26675
AW 21092
BNP 19246
CPA 23702
CUP 6951
CON 495639
ED 10142
EP 10712
Green 196419
Lab 806959
LD 148013
NHA 23215
UKIP 371133
Lab 4 seats
But Nick Robinson was wrong!
http://moderngov.towerhamlets.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=99&RPID=4276753
The 50's sinclair libs however is a different model.
The UKIP voters hold the election in their hands -- although I don't expect them to collapse completely, they will probably fade to about 10-12%, so where the rest of those voters go to will decide it. I personally think, contrary to popular belief, Labour have potential to score with a crop of those voters, since a potential anti-business, anti-status quo platform could really resonate with many of the Kippers who are just anti-establishment. That said, I have to wonder whether they will ever be receptive to that message coming from Ed, who, lovely guy though he is, has been irredeemably defined in people's imaginations as a middle-class alien who doesn't understand "normal people". Labour have much to ponder.
What are the forecasts for Scotland ?
What were the percentages?
Not very convincing for next year.
With Scotland to come, they're on 6.87%:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/vote2014
Labour 4,018,804 25.40 (+9.67) 18 +7
Conservative 3,787,644 23.94 (-3.80) 18 -7
Green 1,244,475 7.87 (-0.75) 3 +1
Liberal Democrat 1,087,390 6.87 (-6.88) 1 -9
UKIP Line bets at 27.5 are going to depend on the Western Isles...
By the 50s they'd already long merged in all but name and came after decades of co-operation. That came out of the National Government in the 20s/30s, which was a different situation again.
The Liberal Nationals had a base of MPs to offer. UKIP won't. It's not going to be on the table for at least a couple of elections.
So it will also depend whether bets are on UK or GB.
Con matched at 1.88 for most seats at GE.
I don't think that will hold but it's now a toss-up re who is favourite.
I hope that those AIFE were indeed UKIP supporters who genuinely got confused, and that they were not genuinely wanting to support a splinter party. It serves them right.
a) Labour voters switch to Green a fair bit in the Euros
b) Labour voters don't get out of bed when its only the Euros at stake.
c) UKIP's vote is far less from the Conservatives than it was previously.
A few tiles have been dislodged from the roof, the extension has collapsed but the structure remains sound. There is no need to move to alternative accommodation.
The surplus which Con will get from UKIP returners is at least as much as the surplus Lab will get from Green returners.
Also Lab vote is becoming less efficient with huge vote surpluses piling up in safe seats in Inner London.
John Looney Indeed, should take more care to read over the ballot paper next time, though they still did not stop UKIP coming top
Surbiton Labour did win the 1994 elections convincingly before they took power in 1997 and Blair only took over as leader a month after the vote when he was elected leader. The idea that 'it was Beckett what won it' is farcical, she was simply holding the fort!
UKIP are going to have to walk the walk at a couple of general elections first.
Number of ballot papers issued - 83403
Number of ballot papers rejected - 3327
That's a lot of rejections - shows they are checking them.