politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: Local Election Polling Day (May
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Interesting tweet quoting Prof Curtice: "John Curtice: "It looks as though it will be another night of substantial Lib Dem losses" Vote down 17, 10 and 9 pts in 3 Sunderland wards".
But these were wards where the Lib Dems weren't particularly in contention. If the Sunderland figures are typical of LD performance in their mid-range seats, we should get a good dry run of the general election as to whether they can out-perform their national decline where it matters - i.e. where they're strong.0 -
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They are here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wE4PXpoUlawYAqL1jW0flgv5PWCiH-9JwLWj0y_-_Ms/edit#gid=0AndyJS said:Anyone have the other figures for St Michael's apart from Con 1501, Lab 866?
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Just doing my job!saddened said:0
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After 12 results in #Sunderland, #Lab -2%, #Con -2%, #LibDem -15%, #UKIP +24%, #Green +2%, #BNP -3%, #Ind -4%0
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blimey how brave is Lynne Featherstone.....sitting there whilst the party gets a monstering0
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Declaration of Result of Poll
St Michael`s Ward
on Thursday, 22 May 2014
Name of Candidate
Votes
Election of a City Councillor for
P
Vincent Gray COSTELLO
UK Independence Party (UK I P)
606
Michael DIXON
The Conservative Party Candidate
1,501
Rachel Sara FEATHERSTONE
Green Party Candidate
250
Zafer IQBAL
Labour Party Candidate
866
Andrew WOOD
Liberal Democrats
1310 -
AndyJS said:
Anyone have the other figures for St Michael's apart from Con 1501, Lab 866?
St Michael's (Sunderland)
CON - 44.8%
LAB - 25.8%
UKIP - 18.1%
GRN - 7.5%
LDEM - 3.9%
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I haven't really been looking, I've been out.saddened said:
Just a bit distasteful to say what you said IMO but free speech and all that I guess
Chuka pushing lies about ukip on bbc right now.. It's a catching disease
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Never thought I'd be saying this about a Lib Dem, but Lynne Featherstone hits the nail on the head. The main reason for Farage's rise is he actually sounds like a humanbeing and says what he thinks in...simple words, not being relentlessly "on message" parrotting vacuous slogans and playing games for the supposed "centre ground".0
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AndyJS said:
Anyone have the other figures for St Michael's apart from Con 1501, Lab 866?
All results declared so far - including st. michael's http://www.sunderland.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=3432
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Labour were 8% behind the tories last time these seats voted
So far they're showing 0 swing in Sunderland despite a surge in UKIP which should be hurting the tories more (folk wisdom).
Looking very very poor for Ed.0 -
Sunderland tells us that there is substantial 'not Labour' vote. It has switched from the Lib Dems to UKIP but hasn't threatened the incumbent.david_herdson said:Interesting tweet quoting Prof Curtice: "John Curtice: "It looks as though it will be another night of substantial Lib Dem losses" Vote down 17, 10 and 9 pts in 3 Sunderland wards".
But these were wards where the Lib Dems weren't particularly in contention. If the Sunderland figures are typical of LD performance in their mid-range seats, we should get a good dry run of the general election as to whether they can out-perform their national decline where it matters - i.e. where they're strong.
The Conservatives have held off the threat from UKIP. Their one loss so far was on a smallish swing to Labour.
Farage is strutting but no one is saluting.
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1501CON 866 LAB 131 LD 606 UKIP 250 GREENAndyJS said:Anyone have the other figures for St Michael's apart from Con 1501, Lab 866?
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Mayor of Sunderland loses seat to independent.0
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UKIP have polled between 608 and 940 votes in every ward in Sunderland so far.0
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Farage is strutting but no one is saluting.
Easy tiger - its very early doors....0 -
Thanks.Eh_ehm_a_eh said:
1501CON 866 LAB 131 LD 606 UKIP 250 GREENAndyJS said:Anyone have the other figures for St Michael's apart from Con 1501, Lab 866?
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Major ramping coming from Hull - this better be good - love to see 2 jags get a bloody nose0
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Rather bemusing to see in Sunderland UKIP up 24% mostly coming from the Lib-Dems (down 15%). They stand for completely different things. On Europe and almost everything else they couldn't be further apart yet I bet some people now voting UKIP voted LD last time. They're protest votes.0
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Britain Elects 2014 @britainelects 32s
#RUMOUR UKIP has GAINED Southchurch in Southend0 -
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According to Vote 2012, UKIP have gained Dannington, Doncaster, with 67%.0
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Quite so. Even with the overblown LD hatred that runs rampant in some areas, I don't think anyone predicted just how much of the LD vote around the country was just soft protest voting.Philip_Thompson said:Rather bemusing to see in Sunderland UKIP up 24% mostly coming from the Lib-Dems (down 15%). They stand for completely different things. On Europe and almost everything else they couldn't be further apart yet I bet some people now voting UKIP voted LD last time. They're protest votes.
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UKIP could be becoming the only true national party tonight. Strong in both city and shire. Oh and Dimbleby seems to be on his last legs.0
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If straw clutching was an Olympic sport Avery would be UK captain.AveryLP said:
Sunderland tells us that there is substantial 'not Labour' vote. It has switched from the Lib Dems to UKIP but hasn't threatened the incumbent.david_herdson said:Interesting tweet quoting Prof Curtice: "John Curtice: "It looks as though it will be another night of substantial Lib Dem losses" Vote down 17, 10 and 9 pts in 3 Sunderland wards".
But these were wards where the Lib Dems weren't particularly in contention. If the Sunderland figures are typical of LD performance in their mid-range seats, we should get a good dry run of the general election as to whether they can out-perform their national decline where it matters - i.e. where they're strong.
The Conservatives have held off the threat from UKIP. Their one loss so far was on a smallish swing to Labour.
Farage is strutting but no one is saluting.0 -
Someone (? Stuart Dickson) tipped UKIP to come top in the NorthEast Euros on Ladbrokes the other day.
The Sunderland results suggest that it may have been a rather good tip.
Unless there is a particular local issue?
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Will be interesting to see Con and Lab spinning how a UKIP win is really a bigger disaster for the other lot and not themselves, which was a 'good result in the circumstances' no doubt.
Night all.0 -
median income economic centrist, originally culture war neutral, fed up of Lab, won't vote Con for 80s/90s reasons, turned cultural right over EU immigrationPhilip_Thompson said:Rather bemusing to see in Sunderland UKIP up 24% mostly coming from the Lib-Dems (down 15%). They stand for completely different things. On Europe and almost everything else they couldn't be further apart yet I bet some people now voting UKIP voted LD last time. They're protest votes.
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They have not started counting the votes in Southend yet .marke09 said:Britain Elects 2014 @britainelects 1m
#RUMOUR UKIP has GAINED Southchurch in Southend0 -
BBC have Labour going backwards in Swindon.
Labour 3rd in the Euros at this race.0 -
BBC
Tories bullish in Swindon. Labour may go backwards.0 -
UKIP almost win Hetton:
"Petra Silfverskiold @petra_nep Retweeted by
Hetton: John Cummings for Labour elected with 1,470, followed by UKIP's John Defty with 1,351 #Elections2014"0 -
Worth remembering that these seats were last fought in 2010, when the Lib Dems won strong support in many council seats off the back of Clegg's performance in the GE, in seats they hadn't previously challenged in, so there'd probably have been some falling off even if the national VI figures were the same as then, just because of the nature of the 25% or so who vote at a GE but not a local.kle4 said:
Quite so. Even with the overblown LD hatred that runs rampant in some areas, I don't think anyone predicted just how much of the LD vote around the country was just soft protest voting.Philip_Thompson said:Rather bemusing to see in Sunderland UKIP up 24% mostly coming from the Lib-Dems (down 15%). They stand for completely different things. On Europe and almost everything else they couldn't be further apart yet I bet some people now voting UKIP voted LD last time. They're protest votes.
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Here's the District Councils spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFRlQ250bWgzS2JQZDRxcjVfa0lOdmc&usp=sheets_web#gid=00 -
Apparently this is a hoax and Doncaster is counting tomorrowSean_F said:According to Vote 2012, UKIP have gained Dannington, Doncaster, with 67%.
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It is a sad spectacle. Like an old man trying to relive lost glories. So nearly there.AndyJS said:UKIP almost win Hetton:
"Petra Silfverskiold @petra_nep Retweeted by
Hetton: John Cummings for Labour elected with 1,470, followed by UKIP's John Defty with 1,351 #Elections2014"
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Starting to look like a bad night for Labour. I think Ed really might be toast with a 3rd place in the Euros and/or the locals (possibly both).0
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Chuka claiming Labour's vote in 2010 is a high water mark. Who is he trying to kid? Pathetic!0
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Southcoates East (Hull):
UKIP GAIN0 -
Places like Swindon, Crawley, Harlow, Stevenage tend to move in the same direction.old_labour said:BBC
Tories bullish in Swindon. Labour may go backwards.0 -
Labour expecting to lose control of Great Yarmouth tomorrow due to UKIP surge.0
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Southcoates East (Hull):
UKIP GAIN0 -
Does such a ward exist? In any case, isn't Doncaster counting tomorrow?Sean_F said:According to Vote 2012, UKIP have gained Dannington, Doncaster, with 67%.
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I wish Sunderland council would update this page, it's been stuck for about 10 minutes:
http://www.sunderland.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=34320 -
Nigel Farage's appeal lies in his "sounding like a human being", Lib Dem minister Lynne Featherstone says http://bbc.co.uk/vote20140
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Keep clutching AveryAveryLP said:
It is a sad spectacle. Like an old man trying to relive lost glories. So nearly there.AndyJS said:UKIP almost win Hetton:
"Petra Silfverskiold @petra_nep Retweeted by
Hetton: John Cummings for Labour elected with 1,470, followed by UKIP's John Defty with 1,351 #Elections2014"0 -
My condolences on your loss Sean.Sean_F said:According to Vote 2012, UKIP have gained Dannington, Doncaster, with 67%.
But I have to say:
There's no such place as Dannington, Doncaster
Doncaster is counting tomorrow.
I think it would be for the best if people only give actual results and not this repetition of tweets from fantasists.
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Well, even the Guardian is reporting it though will investigate further.david_herdson said:
Does such a ward exist? In any case, isn't Doncaster counting tomorrow?Sean_F said:According to Vote 2012, UKIP have gained Dannington, Doncaster, with 67%.
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Good God Are UKIP really going to come 1st inNE??0
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I'm going to step out for a while. Catch up with you fanatics later.0
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Strange posts on here. Just wait for the results!
UKIP need seats not increased vote shares where Labour and Conservatives win.0 -
Having fought them tooth and nail in the past I must admit to suffering from the old stereotype of the L/Ds as a "resilient" group who would withstand most of the hits.Hence,a 4-1 bet on them getting the one.
This could be their worst nightmare.
Just how secure will Clegg be on Sunday night?I suggest he will be at his most vulnerable which is exactly the time for,possibly Vince,aided and abetted by 2 previous of their leaders who have both been shafted themselves,to do his Brutus impression.0 -
BBC confirm the UKIP Hull gain0
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NO - toast sandwich with bacon and tomato ketchup.AveryLP said:
It is too late to toast him, Danny.Danny565 said:Starting to look like a bad night for Labour. I think Ed really might be toast with a 3rd place in the Euros and/or the locals (possibly both).
You'll have to learn to digest soggy bread.
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Agreed. Can't seem to see where that IND gain came from. I think the Mayors seat is Millfield, but can't seem to confirm the result.AndyJS said:I wish Sunderland council would update this page, it's been stuck for about 10 minutes:
http://www.sunderland.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=34320 -
That was rather my message, Nigel.nigel4england said:
Keep clutching AveryAveryLP said:
It is a sad spectacle. Like an old man trying to relive lost glories. So nearly there.AndyJS said:UKIP almost win Hetton:
"Petra Silfverskiold @petra_nep Retweeted by
Hetton: John Cummings for Labour elected with 1,470, followed by UKIP's John Defty with 1,351 #Elections2014"
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BREAKING NEWS:
Tories have GAINED St Peter's ward in Sunderland from Labour.
Labour won this ward in 2010, on the same day as the general election.0 -
If true that would be astonishing , Labour got 88% of the vote in this ward in 2012 . No results have been announced for this council yetmaaarsh said:Southcoates East (Hull):
UKIP GAIN0 -
Labour LOSE seat to Tories.0
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"Ian Lavery MP @IanLaveryMP 6m
I've never experienced any political show as biased in my entire life as the BBC tonight. Anti Labour pro UKIP. The BBC simply love UKIP."
https://twitter.com/IanLaveryMP0 -
Priory Vale (Swindon) Result:
CON - 50.9%
UKIP - 21.4%
LAB - 21.2%
LDEM - 6.5%
So that radio appearance went, err, well?0 -
Peter Henley @BBCPeterH
Labour Group leader in Portsmouth @John_Ferrett says UKIP are causing "mayhem" in Portsmouth pic.twitter.com/Otxq8XTBmh
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Election night is exciting.
I missed the best one in 2010, being away running a teaching course. Shall book Friday off next year.0 -
Oh, that'll make some UKIP heads explode.AndyJS said:"Ian Lavery MP @IanLaveryMP 6m
I've never experienced any political show as biased in my entire life as the BBC tonight. Anti Labour pro UKIP. The BBC simply love UKIP."
https://twitter.com/IanLaveryMP0 -
Labour majority of 74 in St Peter's in 2010 turned into a 89 vote win for the Tories in 2014.0
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Sky news finger on the pulse seats 0/0/0/0/00
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Looks like UKIP in Sunderland are hitting Labour harder than the Tories, allowing the Tories to win a seat.0
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LabourList @LabourList
BBC reporting that Labour will lose Great Yarmouth council tomorrow. That's another important marginal #liveblog http://ow.ly/xahaM
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PB is the place to be!bigjohnowls said:Sky news finger on the pulse seats 0/0/0/0/0
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@GazetteMatt is reporting that UKIP have taken at least four seats in Thurrock. South Essex seems to be delivering for UKIP this evening.0
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Early days, but looking very bad for Labour so far.0
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Saddened
Well. Wait and see the full election results. UKIP are just collecting the anti Labour vote under their banner. Won't stop Labour winning northern marginals. We need to look at the marginals.
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Former Lord Mayor Dave Gemmell has conceded in Southcoates East in Hull - gone to Ukip0
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SKY News is usually pretty good at election time but tonight they are very slow - have only had 1 tweet about Sunderland since 10pm and the onscreen ticker shows 1 council have declared but with no seats won0
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oh and as i go and post the seats ticker gets up dated0
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Labour only confident of 2 seats in Hull apparently.0
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Even if EU rules permitted changes to immigration from the EU, the LibDems and Labour would not vote for change. You need the votes in parliament even to defy the EU. For non-EU immigration the rules have been tightened significantly. How many of these are students?Socrates said:Lead story on the Express tomorrow:
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/477557/Conservatives-failing-in-bid-to-cut-migration-as-it-RISES-20-per-cent
This news coming at the same time as the Tories are solidly beaten by UKIP in the Euro will surely force Cameron to act. People in wealthy metropolitan circles think of immigration as this difficult issue that flares up now and again, but they forget about it when the newspapers aren't running with it for a while. But as long as half a million people turn up in this country every year, it's going to continue to drive people's politics. Most people in this country actually quite like British culture, and they can tell it's getting diluted year on year. Any Conservative party that doesn't get a grip on this will just do poorer and poorer.
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That's a change of tone, not as confident as normal. But as you say we'll see. I expect a certain Mr Hodges will be penning a column as we speak.IOS said:Saddened
Well. Wait and see the full election results. UKIP are just collecting the anti Labour vote under their banner. Won't stop Labour winning northern marginals. We need to look at the marginals.0 -
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Peter Henley @BBCPeterH
Rumours that former Lib Dem MP Mike Hancock has lost his council seat to UKIP in Portsmouth pic.twitter.com/kvTyd3sf9q
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Well the incumbent has conceded.MarkSenior said:
If true that would be astonishing , Labour got 88% of the vote in this ward in 2012 . No results have been announced for this council yetmaaarsh said:Southcoates East (Hull):
UKIP GAIN
I don't doubt your rapid reaction fire fighting of dodgy twitter rumours is valuable, but wouldn't the time be better spent working out why your party is steadily dying as a viable electoral force?0 -
Labour insider in Hull saying they could only guarantee winning 2 of the 21 seats up tonight.
Wow. Simply wow. Labour being punished for taking its WWC vote for granted for decades?0 -
Labour have all but conceded the council to UKIP0
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Good.Tykejohnno said:
Peter Henley @BBCPeterH
Rumours that former Lib Dem MP Mike Hancock has lost his council seat to UKIP in Portsmouth pic.twitter.com/kvTyd3sf9q0 -
Seats so far Lab 63, Tory 8 or if your watching fatty Boulton its still nil nil LOL0
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OK may have to stop doing seat-by-seat updates for a bit. May switch to just updating when a council declares later on.0
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Wouldn't that be a pity?Tykejohnno said:
Peter Henley @BBCPeterH
Rumours that former Lib Dem MP Mike Hancock has lost his council seat to UKIP in Portsmouth pic.twitter.com/kvTyd3sf9q0 -
Which one?MikeK said:Labour have all but conceded the council to UKIP
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Saddend
The official score is 24 Lab - UKIP 1 We know that UKIP are going to make around 100 gains tonight. Some will be from Labour, more will be from the Tories. In a FPTP system that makes Labour the winner.
But lets see how UKIP do in places like Rotherham which they have gone hell for leather for.0 -
Hull was a Labour stronghold in the Thatcher landslide of 1983: votes then were Lab 60,341; Con 40,585; Alliance 33,128.0
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Early days, but looking very bad for Labour so far.
What about the pollsters having labour on 35% plus for 2015....blimey....Yougov etc....0