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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: Local Election Polling Day (May

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  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Interesting tweet quoting Prof Curtice: "John Curtice: "It looks as though it will be another night of substantial Lib Dem losses" Vote down 17, 10 and 9 pts in 3 Sunderland wards".

    But these were wards where the Lib Dems weren't particularly in contention. If the Sunderland figures are typical of LD performance in their mid-range seats, we should get a good dry run of the general election as to whether they can out-perform their national decline where it matters - i.e. where they're strong.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    I am available for virtual CPR.

    saddened said:

    isam said:

    saddened said:

    Any bookies got odds up for which of the kippers on here is going to be first to have a stroke tonight?

    Charming
    Do you not feel that some people are being a little over excited? The way things are going the least that can be expected will be a severe attack of the vapours.
    You're a good and kind man.

  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    AndyJS said:

    Anyone have the other figures for St Michael's apart from Con 1501, Lab 866?

    They are here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wE4PXpoUlawYAqL1jW0flgv5PWCiH-9JwLWj0y_-_Ms/edit#gid=0
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Just doing my job!
    saddened said:

    I am available for virtual CPR.

    saddened said:

    isam said:

    saddened said:

    Any bookies got odds up for which of the kippers on here is going to be first to have a stroke tonight?

    Charming
    Do you not feel that some people are being a little over excited? The way things are going the least that can be expected will be a severe attack of the vapours.
    You're a good and kind man.

  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    After 12 results in #Sunderland, #Lab -2%, #Con -2%, #LibDem -15%, #UKIP +24%, #Green +2%, #BNP -3%, #Ind -4%
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    blimey how brave is Lynne Featherstone.....sitting there whilst the party gets a monstering
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Declaration of Result of Poll
    St Michael`s Ward
    on Thursday, 22 May 2014
    Name of Candidate
    Votes
    Election of a City Councillor for
    P
    Vincent Gray COSTELLO
    UK Independence Party (UK I P)
    606
    Michael DIXON
    The Conservative Party Candidate
    1,501
    Rachel Sara FEATHERSTONE
    Green Party Candidate
    250
    Zafer IQBAL
    Labour Party Candidate
    866
    Andrew WOOD
    Liberal Democrats
    131
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    AndyJS said:

    Anyone have the other figures for St Michael's apart from Con 1501, Lab 866?


    St Michael's (Sunderland)
    CON - 44.8%
    LAB - 25.8%
    UKIP - 18.1%
    GRN - 7.5%
    LDEM - 3.9%
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    saddened said:

    isam said:

    saddened said:

    Any bookies got odds up for which of the kippers on here is going to be first to have a stroke tonight?

    Charming
    Do you not feel that some people are being a little over excited? The way things are going the least that can be expected will be a severe attack of the vapours.
    I haven't really been looking, I've been out.

    Just a bit distasteful to say what you said IMO but free speech and all that I guess

    Chuka pushing lies about ukip on bbc right now.. It's a catching disease
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Never thought I'd be saying this about a Lib Dem, but Lynne Featherstone hits the nail on the head. The main reason for Farage's rise is he actually sounds like a humanbeing and says what he thinks in...simple words, not being relentlessly "on message" parrotting vacuous slogans and playing games for the supposed "centre ground".
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    AndyJS said:

    Anyone have the other figures for St Michael's apart from Con 1501, Lab 866?


    All results declared so far - including st. michael's http://www.sunderland.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=3432
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    Labour were 8% behind the tories last time these seats voted

    So far they're showing 0 swing in Sunderland despite a surge in UKIP which should be hurting the tories more (folk wisdom).

    Looking very very poor for Ed.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014

    Interesting tweet quoting Prof Curtice: "John Curtice: "It looks as though it will be another night of substantial Lib Dem losses" Vote down 17, 10 and 9 pts in 3 Sunderland wards".

    But these were wards where the Lib Dems weren't particularly in contention. If the Sunderland figures are typical of LD performance in their mid-range seats, we should get a good dry run of the general election as to whether they can out-perform their national decline where it matters - i.e. where they're strong.

    Sunderland tells us that there is substantial 'not Labour' vote. It has switched from the Lib Dems to UKIP but hasn't threatened the incumbent.

    The Conservatives have held off the threat from UKIP. Their one loss so far was on a smallish swing to Labour.

    Farage is strutting but no one is saluting.

  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    AndyJS said:

    Anyone have the other figures for St Michael's apart from Con 1501, Lab 866?

    1501CON 866 LAB 131 LD 606 UKIP 250 GREEN
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Mayor of Sunderland loses seat to independent.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP have polled between 608 and 940 votes in every ward in Sunderland so far.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Farage is strutting but no one is saluting.

    Easy tiger - its very early doors....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Anyone have the other figures for St Michael's apart from Con 1501, Lab 866?

    1501CON 866 LAB 131 LD 606 UKIP 250 GREEN
    Thanks.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Britain Elects 2014 ‏@britainelects 3m

    Mannington & Western (Swindon): LAB WIN.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    Major ramping coming from Hull - this better be good - love to see 2 jags get a bloody nose
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Rather bemusing to see in Sunderland UKIP up 24% mostly coming from the Lib-Dems (down 15%). They stand for completely different things. On Europe and almost everything else they couldn't be further apart yet I bet some people now voting UKIP voted LD last time. They're protest votes.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    Britain Elects 2014 ‏@britainelects 32s
    #RUMOUR UKIP has GAINED Southchurch in Southend
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Britain Elects 2014 ‏@britainelects 1m

    #RUMOUR UKIP has GAINED Southchurch in Southend
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    According to Vote 2012, UKIP have gained Dannington, Doncaster, with 67%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Rather bemusing to see in Sunderland UKIP up 24% mostly coming from the Lib-Dems (down 15%). They stand for completely different things. On Europe and almost everything else they couldn't be further apart yet I bet some people now voting UKIP voted LD last time. They're protest votes.

    Quite so. Even with the overblown LD hatred that runs rampant in some areas, I don't think anyone predicted just how much of the LD vote around the country was just soft protest voting.
  • UKIP could be becoming the only true national party tonight. Strong in both city and shire. Oh and Dimbleby seems to be on his last legs.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    AveryLP said:

    Interesting tweet quoting Prof Curtice: "John Curtice: "It looks as though it will be another night of substantial Lib Dem losses" Vote down 17, 10 and 9 pts in 3 Sunderland wards".

    But these were wards where the Lib Dems weren't particularly in contention. If the Sunderland figures are typical of LD performance in their mid-range seats, we should get a good dry run of the general election as to whether they can out-perform their national decline where it matters - i.e. where they're strong.

    Sunderland tells us that there is substantial 'not Labour' vote. It has switched from the Lib Dems to UKIP but hasn't threatened the incumbent.

    The Conservatives have held off the threat from UKIP. Their one loss so far was on a smallish swing to Labour.

    Farage is strutting but no one is saluting.

    If straw clutching was an Olympic sport Avery would be UK captain.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Someone (? Stuart Dickson) tipped UKIP to come top in the NorthEast Euros on Ladbrokes the other day.

    The Sunderland results suggest that it may have been a rather good tip.

    Unless there is a particular local issue?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Will be interesting to see Con and Lab spinning how a UKIP win is really a bigger disaster for the other lot and not themselves, which was a 'good result in the circumstances' no doubt.

    Night all.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    Rather bemusing to see in Sunderland UKIP up 24% mostly coming from the Lib-Dems (down 15%). They stand for completely different things. On Europe and almost everything else they couldn't be further apart yet I bet some people now voting UKIP voted LD last time. They're protest votes.

    median income economic centrist, originally culture war neutral, fed up of Lab, won't vote Con for 80s/90s reasons, turned cultural right over EU immigration
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited May 2014
    marke09 said:

    Britain Elects 2014 ‏@britainelects 1m

    #RUMOUR UKIP has GAINED Southchurch in Southend

    They have not started counting the votes in Southend yet .
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    BBC have Labour going backwards in Swindon.

    Labour 3rd in the Euros at this race.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    BBC
    Tories bullish in Swindon. Labour may go backwards.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP almost win Hetton:

    "Petra Silfverskiold @petra_nep Retweeted by
    Hetton: John Cummings for Labour elected with 1,470, followed by UKIP's John Defty with 1,351 #Elections2014"
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    kle4 said:

    Rather bemusing to see in Sunderland UKIP up 24% mostly coming from the Lib-Dems (down 15%). They stand for completely different things. On Europe and almost everything else they couldn't be further apart yet I bet some people now voting UKIP voted LD last time. They're protest votes.

    Quite so. Even with the overblown LD hatred that runs rampant in some areas, I don't think anyone predicted just how much of the LD vote around the country was just soft protest voting.
    Worth remembering that these seats were last fought in 2010, when the Lib Dems won strong support in many council seats off the back of Clegg's performance in the GE, in seats they hadn't previously challenged in, so there'd probably have been some falling off even if the national VI figures were the same as then, just because of the nature of the 25% or so who vote at a GE but not a local.
  • Sean_F said:

    According to Vote 2012, UKIP have gained Dannington, Doncaster, with 67%.

    Apparently this is a hoax and Doncaster is counting tomorrow
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014
    AndyJS said:

    UKIP almost win Hetton:

    "Petra Silfverskiold @petra_nep Retweeted by
    Hetton: John Cummings for Labour elected with 1,470, followed by UKIP's John Defty with 1,351 #Elections2014"

    It is a sad spectacle. Like an old man trying to relive lost glories. So nearly there.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    A purple bar has now appeared on the seat change graph!

    http://goo.gl/4AJwpD
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Starting to look like a bad night for Labour. I think Ed really might be toast with a 3rd place in the Euros and/or the locals (possibly both).
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Chuka claiming Labour's vote in 2010 is a high water mark. Who is he trying to kid? Pathetic!
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Southcoates East (Hull):
    UKIP GAIN
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    BBC
    Tories bullish in Swindon. Labour may go backwards.

    Places like Swindon, Crawley, Harlow, Stevenage tend to move in the same direction.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour expecting to lose control of Great Yarmouth tomorrow due to UKIP surge.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    Southcoates East (Hull):
    UKIP GAIN
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Sean_F said:

    According to Vote 2012, UKIP have gained Dannington, Doncaster, with 67%.

    Does such a ward exist? In any case, isn't Doncaster counting tomorrow?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I wish Sunderland council would update this page, it's been stuck for about 10 minutes:

    http://www.sunderland.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=3432
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Nigel Farage's appeal lies in his "sounding like a human being", Lib Dem minister Lynne Featherstone says http://bbc.co.uk/vote2014
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    AveryLP said:

    AndyJS said:

    UKIP almost win Hetton:

    "Petra Silfverskiold @petra_nep Retweeted by
    Hetton: John Cummings for Labour elected with 1,470, followed by UKIP's John Defty with 1,351 #Elections2014"

    It is a sad spectacle. Like an old man trying to relive lost glories. So nearly there.

    Keep clutching Avery
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,789
    Sean_F said:

    According to Vote 2012, UKIP have gained Dannington, Doncaster, with 67%.

    My condolences on your loss Sean.

    But I have to say:

    There's no such place as Dannington, Doncaster

    Doncaster is counting tomorrow.

    I think it would be for the best if people only give actual results and not this repetition of tweets from fantasists.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,709

    Sean_F said:

    According to Vote 2012, UKIP have gained Dannington, Doncaster, with 67%.

    Does such a ward exist? In any case, isn't Doncaster counting tomorrow?
    Well, even the Guardian is reporting it though will investigate further.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Good God Are UKIP really going to come 1st inNE??
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Danny565 said:

    Starting to look like a bad night for Labour. I think Ed really might be toast with a 3rd place in the Euros and/or the locals (possibly both).

    It is too late to toast him, Danny.

    You'll have to learn to digest soggy bread.

  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    I'm going to step out for a while. Catch up with you fanatics later.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Strange posts on here. Just wait for the results!

    UKIP need seats not increased vote shares where Labour and Conservatives win.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Having fought them tooth and nail in the past I must admit to suffering from the old stereotype of the L/Ds as a "resilient" group who would withstand most of the hits.Hence,a 4-1 bet on them getting the one.
    This could be their worst nightmare.
    Just how secure will Clegg be on Sunday night?I suggest he will be at his most vulnerable which is exactly the time for,possibly Vince,aided and abetted by 2 previous of their leaders who have both been shafted themselves,to do his Brutus impression.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    BBC confirm the UKIP Hull gain
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    AveryLP said:

    Danny565 said:

    Starting to look like a bad night for Labour. I think Ed really might be toast with a 3rd place in the Euros and/or the locals (possibly both).

    It is too late to toast him, Danny.

    You'll have to learn to digest soggy bread.

    NO - toast sandwich with bacon and tomato ketchup.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    AndyJS said:

    I wish Sunderland council would update this page, it's been stuck for about 10 minutes:

    http://www.sunderland.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=3432

    Agreed. Can't seem to see where that IND gain came from. I think the Mayors seat is Millfield, but can't seem to confirm the result.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    AndyJS said:

    UKIP almost win Hetton:

    "Petra Silfverskiold @petra_nep Retweeted by
    Hetton: John Cummings for Labour elected with 1,470, followed by UKIP's John Defty with 1,351 #Elections2014"

    It is a sad spectacle. Like an old man trying to relive lost glories. So nearly there.

    Keep clutching Avery
    That was rather my message, Nigel.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    BREAKING NEWS:

    Tories have GAINED St Peter's ward in Sunderland from Labour.

    Labour won this ward in 2010, on the same day as the general election.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    maaarsh said:

    Southcoates East (Hull):
    UKIP GAIN

    If true that would be astonishing , Labour got 88% of the vote in this ward in 2012 . No results have been announced for this council yet
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Labour LOSE seat to Tories.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    AndyJS said:

    BREAKING NEWS:

    Tories have GAINED St Peter's ward in Sunderland from Labour.

    Labour won this ward in 2010, on the same day as the general election.

    Avery salutes Cameron.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Ian Lavery MP ‏@IanLaveryMP 6m

    I've never experienced any political show as biased in my entire life as the BBC tonight. Anti Labour pro UKIP. The BBC simply love UKIP."

    https://twitter.com/IanLaveryMP
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    Priory Vale (Swindon) Result:
    CON - 50.9%
    UKIP - 21.4%
    LAB - 21.2%
    LDEM - 6.5%


    So that radio appearance went, err, well?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Peter Henley @BBCPeterH

    Labour Group leader in Portsmouth @John_Ferrett says UKIP are causing "mayhem" in Portsmouth pic.twitter.com/Otxq8XTBmh

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Election night is exciting.

    I missed the best one in 2010, being away running a teaching course. Shall book Friday off next year.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    AndyJS said:

    "Ian Lavery MP ‏@IanLaveryMP 6m

    I've never experienced any political show as biased in my entire life as the BBC tonight. Anti Labour pro UKIP. The BBC simply love UKIP."

    https://twitter.com/IanLaveryMP

    Oh, that'll make some UKIP heads explode.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour majority of 74 in St Peter's in 2010 turned into a 89 vote win for the Tories in 2014.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    IOS said:

    Strange posts on here. Just wait for the results!

    UKIP need seats not increased vote shares where Labour and Conservatives win.

    How do you think the ground war is going?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Sky news finger on the pulse seats 0/0/0/0/0
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Looks like UKIP in Sunderland are hitting Labour harder than the Tories, allowing the Tories to win a seat.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    LabourList @LabourList

    BBC reporting that Labour will lose Great Yarmouth council tomorrow. That's another important marginal #liveblog http://ow.ly/xahaM

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033

    Sky news finger on the pulse seats 0/0/0/0/0

    PB is the place to be!
  • toontoontoontoon Posts: 14
    @GazetteMatt is reporting that UKIP have taken at least four seats in Thurrock. South Essex seems to be delivering for UKIP this evening.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Early days, but looking very bad for Labour so far.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    AndyJS said:

    Labour majority of 74 in St Peter's in 2010 turned into a 89 vote win for the Tories in 2014.

    Any idea of the Swing? Did UKIP hit Labour Harder than Tories?

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Saddened

    Well. Wait and see the full election results. UKIP are just collecting the anti Labour vote under their banner. Won't stop Labour winning northern marginals. We need to look at the marginals.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    saddened said:

    IOS said:

    Strange posts on here. Just wait for the results!

    UKIP need seats not increased vote shares where Labour and Conservatives win.

    How do you think the ground war is going?
    Rain stopped play. Con gain from Lab on Duckworth-Lewis calculation.

  • Former Lord Mayor Dave Gemmell has conceded in Southcoates East in Hull - gone to Ukip
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Michael Heaver @Michael_Heaver

    UKIP have so far gained a seat in Hull and Basildon

  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    SKY News is usually pretty good at election time but tonight they are very slow - have only had 1 tweet about Sunderland since 10pm and the onscreen ticker shows 1 council have declared but with no seats won
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    oh and as i go and post the seats ticker gets up dated
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour only confident of 2 seats in Hull apparently.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Socrates said:

    Lead story on the Express tomorrow:

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/477557/Conservatives-failing-in-bid-to-cut-migration-as-it-RISES-20-per-cent

    This news coming at the same time as the Tories are solidly beaten by UKIP in the Euro will surely force Cameron to act. People in wealthy metropolitan circles think of immigration as this difficult issue that flares up now and again, but they forget about it when the newspapers aren't running with it for a while. But as long as half a million people turn up in this country every year, it's going to continue to drive people's politics. Most people in this country actually quite like British culture, and they can tell it's getting diluted year on year. Any Conservative party that doesn't get a grip on this will just do poorer and poorer.

    Even if EU rules permitted changes to immigration from the EU, the LibDems and Labour would not vote for change. You need the votes in parliament even to defy the EU. For non-EU immigration the rules have been tightened significantly. How many of these are students?

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    weejonnie said:

    AndyJS said:

    Labour majority of 74 in St Peter's in 2010 turned into a 89 vote win for the Tories in 2014.

    Any idea of the Swing? Did UKIP hit Labour Harder than Tories?

    I can't get hold of the figures for the other parties apart from Con and Lab, frustratingly.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    edited May 2014
    IOS said:

    Saddened

    Well. Wait and see the full election results. UKIP are just collecting the anti Labour vote under their banner. Won't stop Labour winning northern marginals. We need to look at the marginals.

    That's a change of tone, not as confident as normal. But as you say we'll see. I expect a certain Mr Hodges will be penning a column as we speak.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Peter Henley @BBCPeterH

    Rumours that former Lib Dem MP Mike Hancock has lost his council seat to UKIP in Portsmouth pic.twitter.com/kvTyd3sf9q

  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591

    maaarsh said:

    Southcoates East (Hull):
    UKIP GAIN

    If true that would be astonishing , Labour got 88% of the vote in this ward in 2012 . No results have been announced for this council yet
    Well the incumbent has conceded.

    I don't doubt your rapid reaction fire fighting of dodgy twitter rumours is valuable, but wouldn't the time be better spent working out why your party is steadily dying as a viable electoral force?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Labour insider in Hull saying they could only guarantee winning 2 of the 21 seats up tonight.

    Wow. Simply wow. Labour being punished for taking its WWC vote for granted for decades?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Labour have all but conceded the council to UKIP
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624


    Peter Henley @BBCPeterH

    Rumours that former Lib Dem MP Mike Hancock has lost his council seat to UKIP in Portsmouth pic.twitter.com/kvTyd3sf9q

    Good.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Seats so far Lab 63, Tory 8 or if your watching fatty Boulton its still nil nil LOL
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    OK may have to stop doing seat-by-seat updates for a bit. May switch to just updating when a council declares later on.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534


    Peter Henley @BBCPeterH

    Rumours that former Lib Dem MP Mike Hancock has lost his council seat to UKIP in Portsmouth pic.twitter.com/kvTyd3sf9q

    Wouldn't that be a pity?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    MikeK said:

    Labour have all but conceded the council to UKIP

    Which one?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Saddend

    The official score is 24 Lab - UKIP 1 We know that UKIP are going to make around 100 gains tonight. Some will be from Labour, more will be from the Tories. In a FPTP system that makes Labour the winner.

    But lets see how UKIP do in places like Rotherham which they have gone hell for leather for.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    Hull was a Labour stronghold in the Thatcher landslide of 1983: votes then were Lab 60,341; Con 40,585; Alliance 33,128.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Early days, but looking very bad for Labour so far.

    What about the pollsters having labour on 35% plus for 2015....blimey....Yougov etc....
This discussion has been closed.