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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: Local Election Polling Day (May

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  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    UKIP lose seat in Tyneside.

    Did they put it down somewhere and then forget about it?

  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Thanks, AndyJS.
    AndyJS said:

    We have our first full council result from Sunderland:

    Votes:

    Lab: 32,344
    UKIP: 16,961
    Con: 13,571
    Ind: 2,674
    LD: 2,569
    Green: 1,263
    Others: 424

    Percentages:

    Lab: 46.33%
    UKIP: 24.30%
    Con: 19.44%
    Ind: 3.83%
    LD: 3.68%
    Green: 1.81%
    Others: 0.61%

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Lab -2.64%
    UKIP +24.30%
    Con -5.76%
    Ind -0.14%
    LD -14.57%
    Green +1.53%

    Swing, 1.56% from Con to Lab

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Rob

    No you were right. That was the council people on here were claiming UKIP had taken of Labour. Of course nonsense but it shows how hyper excited UKIP supporters are.

    Fact is they are cleaning up the anti Labour vote in Labour heartlands but not winning many seats.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    UKIP lose seat in Tyneside.

    Shocking manners - should always give up your chair for the elderly.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    CON have gained Swindon.

    Anyone know of any councils which have fully declared, apart from Sunderland and South Tyneside.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Curtice: Lab down 15 points on 2012 and a fraction below 2010.

    IOS is still waiting for dawn. She is proving hard to get.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Eek. John Curtice saying Labour's vote might be DOWN on their abysmal 2010 level.
  • ukLibertarianukLibertarian Posts: 16
    edited May 2014
    Putting Hartlepool First take Hart ward,

    UKIP take Seaton Ward.

    Labour hold Foggy Furze
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP go from nothing to 29% in Longbridge.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Who's this Labour loon on Sky?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Based on the results so far betting on UKIP winning most votes in European Elections must be absolutely nailed on.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AndyJS said:

    First result from Birmingham and UKIP just miss out in Longbridge:

    Lab 1669
    Con 1598
    UKIP 1544
    Green 238
    LD 157
    TUSC 55

    They were hoping for 2nd ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    Using their own definition of control prior to election, Swindon wasn't a hold, it was a gain
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Con hold Swindon. goodbye Ed
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Hull so far Lab 6 holds LD 1 hold
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Does Chukka work as a tic tac man?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Conservatives holding Swindon, the fact that Labour can't take that with its 2 marginal seats is a pretty damning verdict on Labour.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    BBC Politics ✔ @BBCPolitics

    #Vote2014 COUNCIL RESULT: Conservatives hold Swindon http://bbc.in/1lYwV19

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Eh_ehm_a_eh: Can't be worse than Chuka surely?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    dr_spyn said:

    Does Chukka work as a tic tac man?

    More tick tock.

  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Emily Thornberry (lab, Islington).
    Isam's cat and I have the same reaction towards Barbara Roache who ironically lost her seat to Lynne Featherstone, Lib Dem bod on BBC.

    Who's this Labour loon on Sky?

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Labour hold Foggy Furze

    A cuddly comfort toy?

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    Using their own definition of control prior to election, Swindon wasn't a hold, it was a gain

    I thought the definition was control based upon last elections results. IE defections etc don't count.

  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552

    Eh_ehm_a_eh: Can't be worse than Chuka surely?


    She's a gibbering fool. Claiming 150 gains would be a good night for Labour.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    The utter collapse of left wing politics is upon us. Tory/UKIP tacit pact sees a landslide
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Graham Stringer just sticking a breadknife into ed miliband's ribs...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    From the BBC Vote 2013 website:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22109690
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Labour mp absolutely giving it to Miliband on BBC... Labour have to offer a referendum he says
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Labour to stick referendum on EU I reckon
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Are we expecting Dan Hedges to make a dramatic 4am intervention?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Lib Dems hold Acocks Green in Bitmingham won by Labour in 2011 and 2012
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Labour MPs b8tchfighting on TV now...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014

    Thanks, AndyJS.

    AndyJS said:

    We have our first full council result from Sunderland:

    Votes:

    Lab: 32,344
    UKIP: 16,961
    Con: 13,571
    Ind: 2,674
    LD: 2,569
    Green: 1,263
    Others: 424

    Percentages:

    Lab: 46.33%
    UKIP: 24.30%
    Con: 19.44%
    Ind: 3.83%
    LD: 3.68%
    Green: 1.81%
    Others: 0.61%

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Lab -2.64%
    UKIP +24.30%
    Con -5.76%
    Ind -0.14%
    LD -14.57%
    Green +1.53%

    Swing, 1.56% from Con to Lab

    Thanks old_labour, my head is already spinning and there are still 64 councils to go tonight...
  • Based on the results so far betting on UKIP winning most votes in European Elections must be absolutely nailed on.

    Allowing for ticket splitting then surely UKIP must be on 30% plus.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Eh_ehm_a_eh: Can't be worse than Chuka surely?


    She's a gibbering fool. Claiming 150 gains would be a good night for Labour.
    That's the official party line. Chuka did even worse, he claimed it'd be difficult to make any gains as 2010 was a good year for Labour.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Lol, Labour already like rats in a sack
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    Labour mp absolutely giving it to Miliband on BBC... Labour have to offer a referendum he says

    That would be abject surrender from where he has positioned himself.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    I couldn't be happier, the left is dying
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Lib Dems hold Acocks Green in Bitmingham won by Labour in 2011 and 2012

    Which constituency Mark ?

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Lab 62 - UKIP 3

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014
    Where's 'pouter?

    Red on Red incoming. Multiple explosions.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Spot on! And rather than those Libdem to Lab switchers shoring up a Labour win, it appears that its Lab to UKIP switchers which is going to be causing a bigger headache for Ed Miliband tomorrow.

    IOS, we are in the unusual situation where two of the three major parties are in Government. However, rather than the third party, Labour, hoovering up the protest votes against the Govt. of the day, it has so little appeal to voters that the voters have effectively gone off and formed a fourth party to be the new opposition.

    If that counts as an acceptable night, it may be time for bed!

  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    taffys said:

    Graham Stringer just sticking a breadknife into ed miliband's ribs...

    Got time for Graham Stringer - caustic line about Ed not knowing about the price of his shopping! Also he stood up and voted against the Climatic Research Unit with his scientific background. And I think he understands the reality on the ground so much better than a career politician like Chuka.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    BBc and Sky all over the place with their numbers - BBC say 8 councils have declared SKY say 4
    BBC say Labour have 64 seats SKy say 128
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552

    I couldn't be happier, the left is dying

    Not in Scotland.
    But nights like this might just see Scotland give a cheery wave bye bye.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    marke09 said:

    BBc and Sky all over the place with their numbers - BBC say 8 councils have declared SKY say 4
    BBC say Labour have 64 seats SKy say 128

    It depends whether you wait for all the results to be declared, or just enough for one party to be guaranteed a majority.

    Because I'm concentrating on votes I can't finish a council until I have the full results from every ward, which is why Sunderland is the only completed council on my results page.
  • H'Pool: Jesmond looks like it has gone to #ukip. Official announcements shortly
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Britain Elects 2014 ‏@britainelects 6m

    Conservatives HOLD Swindon, apparently a Labour target.

    also gain a seat
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Council by election result Redcar/Cleveland UA Dormanstown LD hold
    LD 753 Lab 741 UKIP 523

    In Redcar Parliamentary seat
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    JackW said:

    Lib Dems hold Acocks Green in Bitmingham won by Labour in 2011 and 2012

    Which constituency Mark ?

    Acocks Green is still Yardley I think.


  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    When will the BBC learn how to present data with plain backgrounds. Must be employing Ed's presentation team.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    I couldn't be happier, the left is dying

    Not in Scotland.
    But nights like this might just see Scotland give a cheery wave bye bye.

    True. But the wise Scots will find the way that works for them
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 6m

    Don't be surprised if after these elections there will be pressure on Labour to offer a referendum on Europe
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    nd I think he understands the reality on the ground so much better than a career politician like Chuka.

    Two senior labour MPs arguing on TV like they were arguing with someone from another party....its amazing what pressure does to people.
  • UKIP have taken Paston and have their first ever seat on Peterborough City Council
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky News - things are very tight in Croydon.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    One of his best ever public outings has to be his appearance on a Scottish BBC QuestionTime. I admit, I was half expecting a political car crash. But Jacob Rees Mogg proved me wrong big time. Not only did he manage to achieve what most Tory MP's failed to do on this programme back then, applause after his contributions, he got some genuine and appreciative laughter of his very dry humour. If I didn't know better, I would swear with a wit that dry, he must surely have some Highland blood in his veins. :)
    RobD said:

    I do enjoy a bit of Mogg.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Rob Wilson ✔ @RobWilson_RDG

    Labour leader of Rotherham has just lost his seat to UKIP.

  • MP for Reading East has confirmed Labour leader of Rotherham Council has lost his seat to Ukip
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Is Ed in danger ?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Lib Dems hold Acocks Green in Bitmingham won by Labour in 2011 and 2012

    Which constituency Mark ?

    Acocks Green is still Yardley I think.


    Thanks MM

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Chukka says Swindon wasn't a target. Lol, dying
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Cambridge Redbridge...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Full Swindon results (apart from one or two missing candidates):

    http://www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/election_2014/the_candidates/
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    fitalass said:

    One of his best ever public outings has to be his appearance on a Scottish BBC QuestionTime. I admit, I was half expecting a political car crash. But Jacob Rees Mogg proved me wrong big time. Not only did he manage to achieve what most Tory MP's failed to do on this programme back then, applause after his contributions, he got some genuine and appreciative laughter of his very dry humour. If I didn't know better, I would swear with a wit that dry, he must surely have some Highland blood in his veins. :)

    RobD said:

    I do enjoy a bit of Mogg.

    Was having a look on Electoral Calculus the other day fitalass. Assuming Scotland votes no in September, LibDems forecast to lose all their Scottish MP's apart from Charles Kennedy, Orkney & Shetland and Fife NE. Do you think Aberdeen W and Kincardine is going to go Tory? Or a tossup between them and the SNP?

    Chuka saying Labour didn't target Swindon! Who are you kidding when Ed went there?!!!!! LOL
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Redbridge Labour ffs - who is the guy kidding.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Chukka says Swindon wasn't a target. Lol, dying

    Deciding not to vote Labour anymore feels so good.

    Chuku Umunna and Emily Thornberry FFS

    Essex going purple... thought as much
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Chuka is going to have to learn to lie better if he wants to progress in politics. Swindon not a Labour target council? What bollocks!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Labour 5.4/1000 on most votes Betfair now.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Kingston didn't the former LD leader get put away for child porn?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Ed Davey LOL. I will be very happy to see him gone as an MP in 12 months time hopefully for what he is doing over our crazy 20% renewables 2020 EU energy implementation.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    One Nation Labour going backwards in Swindon.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Chukka.
    Wasn't he the future once?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    TGOHF said:

    Is Ed in danger ?

    Looks like Ed Davey might be.

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    isam said:

    Chukka says Swindon wasn't a target. Lol, dying

    Deciding not to vote Labour anymore feels so good.

    Chuku Umunna and Emily Thornberry FFS

    Essex going purple... thought as much
    Not my part of Essex... seems a long way away.
  • James Vincent @BBCJamesVincent · 1m

    Ukip wins Dinnington in #Rotherham takes it from labour
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    AveryLP said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is Ed in danger ?

    Looks like Ed Davey might be.

    As near to conceding before the result as you'll get

    Lib Dems, losing here
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    isam said:

    Chukka says Swindon wasn't a target. Lol, dying

    Deciding not to vote Labour anymore feels so good.

    Chuku Umunna and Emily Thornberry FFS

    Essex going purple... thought as much


    Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick

    John Curtice: Together with UKIP gains in Basildon "it looks as though Essex man has now become UKIP man" #Vote2014


  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It's not surprising that Labour didn't take Swindon - Swindon's economy has been doing well in recent years.

    Sky is reporting that Labour may take Trafford. That would not be surprising either, since Trafford is part of one of the Core Cities, which are Labour's major electoral strongholds.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Grandiose said:

    isam said:

    Chukka says Swindon wasn't a target. Lol, dying

    Deciding not to vote Labour anymore feels so good.

    Chuku Umunna and Emily Thornberry FFS

    Essex going purple... thought as much
    Not my part of Essex... seems a long way away.
    Really? What part are you from?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    UKIP gain 2 each so far in Southend and Castle Point.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    LD hold Sheldon ward on Birmingham council = also in Yardley constituency .
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Final result, Swindon popular votes:

    Con 18,476 (32.99%)
    Lab 17,593 (31.41%)
    UKIP 12,331 (22.02%)
    LD 4,741 (8.46%)
    Green 2,507 (4.48%)
    Ind 347 (0.62%)
    Others 14 (0.02%)

    Changes:

    Con -9.54%
    Lab +0.94%
    UKIP +19.99%
    LD -13.31%
    Green +3.35%
    Ind +0.46%

    Swing, Con to Lab: 5.24%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    Anyone know if Cheshunt South & Theobalds on Broxbourne was a CON hold, that's my last seat missing there.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    isam said:

    Chukka says Swindon wasn't a target. Lol, dying

    Deciding not to vote Labour anymore feels so good.

    Chuku Umunna and Emily Thornberry FFS

    Essex going purple... thought as much


    Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick

    John Curtice: Together with UKIP gains in Basildon "it looks as though Essex man has now become UKIP man" #Vote2014


    College will have to start wearing white shoes.

    Might clash with the OE tie though.

  • isam said:

    Chukka says Swindon wasn't a target. Lol, dying

    Deciding not to vote Labour anymore feels so good.

    Chuku Umunna and Emily Thornberry FFS

    Essex going purple... thought as much
    Chukka is dreadful. It started me thinking about who Labour OUGHT to elect if Mili loses next year. Maybe Stella Creasy? They'll probably elect Yvette who will only be marginally better.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Rob Wilson ‏@RobWilson_RDG 13m

    Labour leader of Rotherham has just lost his seat to UKIP.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    AndyJS said:

    Final result, Swindon popular votes:

    Con 18,476 (32.99%)
    Lab 17,593 (31.41%)
    UKIP 12,331 (22.02%)
    LD 4,741 (8.46%)
    Green 2,507 (4.48%)
    Ind 347 (0.62%)
    Others 14 (0.02%)

    Changes:

    Con -9.54%
    Lab +0.94%
    UKIP +19.99%
    LD -13.31%
    Green +3.35%
    Ind +0.46%

    Swing, Con to Lab: 5.24%

    Very interesting... Con gain council seats even though thats a 5% swing or so to labour.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Lib Dems, losing here

    It's been written here ad nauseam that the lib dems would do better in Lib dem/con in the south fights than in the country as a whole.

    How does that assertion look now??
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    How many seats have UKIP gained off Labour so far. Not increased vote share. Actual seats.
  • ukLibertarianukLibertarian Posts: 16
    edited May 2014
    Overall Results so far (Councillors)......

    UKIP +9
    LABOUR +3
    CONSERVATIVES -10
    LIBDEMS -3
    OTHERS +1
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    isam said:

    Chukka says Swindon wasn't a target. Lol, dying

    Deciding not to vote Labour anymore feels so good.

    Chuku Umunna and Emily Thornberry FFS

    Essex going purple... thought as much
    Chukka is dreadful. It started me thinking about who Labour OUGHT to elect if Mili loses next year. Maybe Stella Creasy? They'll probably elect Yvette who will only be marginally better.
    Andy Burnham is the only choice. Everyone else in the shadow cabinet are utterly useless.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories have GAINED Kingstanding from Labour compared to 2010.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    IOS said:

    How many seats have UKIP gained off Labour so far. Not increased vote share. Actual seats.

    This is why I made my sheet, so we can see who gained off who. Trying to update as quick as I can...

    http://goo.gl/4AJwpD
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Final result, Swindon popular votes:

    Con 18,476 (32.99%)
    Lab 17,593 (31.41%)
    UKIP 12,331 (22.02%)
    LD 4,741 (8.46%)
    Green 2,507 (4.48%)
    Ind 347 (0.62%)
    Others 14 (0.02%)

    Changes:

    Con -9.54%
    Lab +0.94%
    UKIP +19.99%
    LD -13.31%
    Green +3.35%
    Ind +0.46%

    Swing, Con to Lab: 5.24%

    Very interesting... Con gain council seats even though thats a 5% swing or so to labour.
    Yes Labour must have got the swings in the wrong places.

    But the main point is the Tories stayed ahead in the popular vote in a town with two marginal seats.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Chukka says Swindon wasn't a target. Lol, dying

    Deciding not to vote Labour anymore feels so good.

    Chuku Umunna and Emily Thornberry FFS

    Essex going purple... thought as much
    Chukka is dreadful. It started me thinking about who Labour OUGHT to elect if Mili loses next year. Maybe Stella Creasy? They'll probably elect Yvette who will only be marginally better.
    Stella Creasey is not the answer for labour... a groovy wannabe londoner who buzzes off the diversity of the stow precisely because she is from manchester

    Jon Cruddas is the answer
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Final result, Swindon popular votes:

    Con 18,476 (32.99%)
    Lab 17,593 (31.41%)
    UKIP 12,331 (22.02%)
    LD 4,741 (8.46%)
    Green 2,507 (4.48%)
    Ind 347 (0.62%)
    Others 14 (0.02%)

    Changes:

    Con -9.54%
    Lab +0.94%
    UKIP +19.99%
    LD -13.31%
    Green +3.35%
    Ind +0.46%

    Swing, Con to Lab: 5.24%

    Hmph, those vote %s aren't quite as abysmal as I was fearing for Labour.
  • BBC WM 95.6 @bbcwm · 2m

    UKIP win in Hawks Green, Cannock
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Chukka says Swindon wasn't a target. Lol, dying

    Deciding not to vote Labour anymore feels so good.

    Chuku Umunna and Emily Thornberry FFS

    Essex going purple... thought as much
    Chukka is dreadful. It started me thinking about who Labour OUGHT to elect if Mili loses next year. Maybe Stella Creasy? They'll probably elect Yvette who will only be marginally better.
    Stella Creasey is not the answer for labour... a groovy wannabe londoner who buzzes off the diversity of the stow precisely because she is from manchester

    Jon Cruddas is the answer
    I doubt Cruddas with all his impenetrable waffle about "devolution" would do anything good.
This discussion has been closed.