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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: Local Election Polling Day (May

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  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Swing to Labour is currently running at 3%, with their vote down by 1.2%.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Danny

    Mmm Labour GroundGame fail in Swindon then. Increased votes by a good margin and didn't make the gains.
  • Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    Chukka says Swindon wasn't a target. Lol, dying

    Deciding not to vote Labour anymore feels so good.

    Chuku Umunna and Emily Thornberry FFS

    Essex going purple... thought as much
    Chukka is dreadful. It started me thinking about who Labour OUGHT to elect if Mili loses next year. Maybe Stella Creasy? They'll probably elect Yvette who will only be marginally better.
    Andy Burnham is the only choice. Everyone else in the shadow cabinet are utterly useless.
    Burnham is better than most of them but will always be tarnished by Stafford Hospital
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    LabourList @LabourList

    UKIP have made five gains off Labour in Rotherham so far, including leader and deputy leader of the council http://ow.ly/xan5q #liveblog

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    LDs beaten by UKIP in Edgbaston, despite it being home to hordes of liberal academics at the university.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Final result, Swindon popular votes:

    Con 18,476 (32.99%)
    Lab 17,593 (31.41%)
    UKIP 12,331 (22.02%)
    LD 4,741 (8.46%)
    Green 2,507 (4.48%)
    Ind 347 (0.62%)
    Others 14 (0.02%)

    Changes:

    Con -9.54%
    Lab +0.94%
    UKIP +19.99%
    LD -13.31%
    Green +3.35%
    Ind +0.46%

    Swing, Con to Lab: 5.24%

    Very interesting... Con gain council seats even though thats a 5% swing or so to labour.
    Yes Labour must have got the swings in the wrong places.

    But the main point is the Tories stayed ahead in the popular vote in a town with two marginal seats.
    The Conservative gain was in a split ward with 2 Cobservative and 1 Labour councillor elected in 3rd place in 2012
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    IOS said:

    How many seats have UKIP gained off Labour so far. Not increased vote share. Actual seats.

    So far, I think it's 4 in Rotherham, 2 in Hartlepool.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    IOS said:

    How many seats have UKIP gained off Labour so far. Not increased vote share. Actual seats.


    7 confirmed gains. 3 from Con, 3 from Lab.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Astonishing result if reports are correct: Labour come third in Bartley Green, one of the wards in the Edgbaston constituency:

    Con 2637
    UKIP 1308
    Lab 1108
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    Chukka says Swindon wasn't a target. Lol, dying

    Deciding not to vote Labour anymore feels so good.

    Chuku Umunna and Emily Thornberry FFS

    Essex going purple... thought as much
    Chukka is dreadful. It started me thinking about who Labour OUGHT to elect if Mili loses next year. Maybe Stella Creasy? They'll probably elect Yvette who will only be marginally better.
    Andy Burnham is the only choice. Everyone else in the shadow cabinet are utterly useless.
    Burnham is better than most of them but will always be tarnished by Stafford Hospital
    No-one outside the Westminster bubble is stupid enough to ascribe a systemic failure like that to one individual. If anything, Burnham is probably most known for his Hillsborough campaigning.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky News: Castle Point — Tories lose control.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Chris Mason @ChrisMasonBBC

    Curtice: UKIP have made a gain in Peterborough from Cons. It is now looking highly likely that UKIP are going to make substantial gains

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Ed Miliband struggling to beat Gordon's performance in 2010.

    So far no gain on 2010.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    5.5% Lab -> Con swing since 2012 on results so far
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Sean

    How many seats have declared in Rotherham? Are the wards where there was a specific issue with child protection issues.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Chukka says Swindon wasn't a target. Lol, dying

    Deciding not to vote Labour anymore feels so good.

    Chuku Umunna and Emily Thornberry FFS

    Essex going purple... thought as much
    Chukka is dreadful. It started me thinking about who Labour OUGHT to elect if Mili loses next year. Maybe Stella Creasy? They'll probably elect Yvette who will only be marginally better.
    Stella Creasey is not the answer for labour... a groovy wannabe londoner who buzzes off the diversity of the stow precisely because she is from manchester

    Jon Cruddas is the answer
    I doubt Cruddas with all his impenetrable waffle about "devolution" would do anything good.
    I like him. \my \\dad is a teacher in \dagenham and says Cruddas is very genuine and involved

    I cant think of anyone else who would make me think of voting Labour again.. maybe Frank Field, but he is too old
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Who is the Marilyn Monroe wannabe on BBC?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP just miss out in Shard End, B'ham:

    Lab 1791
    UKIP 1754
    Lab 446
    Green 301
    BNP 134
    LD 132
    TUSC 48
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Chris Mason @ChrisMasonBBC

    UKIp have taken a seat off the tories on castle point council - leader Pam Challis has lost her seat UKIP reports @bbcessex

  • The UKIP earthquake is in force in Peterborough. They've just taken Orton Longueville from Cons. Rumour is there'll be a 3rd victory soon
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Labour lose Hartlepool

    I thought a monkey in a red rosette would win there.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Castle Point looks like a possible UKIP gain next year.
    Plus UKIP up 27% from 2010 on all key wards so far
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Labour lose Hartlepool


    !!!!!!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    PoliticsHome @politicshome

    The Conservatives have gained two seats from Labour in Birmingham. http://polho.me/1lGRm11

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Chris Mason @ChrisMasonBBC

    Rotherham: out of 16 declarations, UKIP have eight wins

  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour lose Hartlepool

    I thought a monkey in a red rosette would win there.


    French monkey obviously.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Speedy said:

    Castle Point looks like a possible UKIP gain next year.
    Plus UKIP up 27% from 2010 on all key wards so far

    Steady on - turnout will be different.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Acc. to the grauniad Lab holds Hartlepool!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Birmingham Stetchord/Yardley North LD hold majority 1162
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    taffys said:

    Labour lose Hartlepool


    !!!!!!

    taffys said:

    Labour lose Hartlepool


    !!!!!!

    Oh Mandy!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    What a night for Labour!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    IOS said:

    Sean

    How many seats have declared in Rotherham? Are the wards where there was a specific issue with child protection issues.

    I think 8 so far. The Leader and Deputy have both lost, so I imagine there is a link to the child protection issues.
  • Fascinating battle in Rotherham. Ukip now won 9 seats to Labour's 8
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Watch this space on WAK, and expect at least three other Libdems not mentioned in your post to keep their seats next year at the GE.
    hunchman said:

    fitalass said:

    One of his best ever public outings has to be his appearance on a Scottish BBC QuestionTime. I admit, I was half expecting a political car crash. But Jacob Rees Mogg proved me wrong big time. Not only did he manage to achieve what most Tory MP's failed to do on this programme back then, applause after his contributions, he got some genuine and appreciative laughter of his very dry humour. If I didn't know better, I would swear with a wit that dry, he must surely have some Highland blood in his veins. :)

    RobD said:

    I do enjoy a bit of Mogg.

    Was having a look on Electoral Calculus the other day fitalass. Assuming Scotland votes no in September, LibDems forecast to lose all their Scottish MP's apart from Charles Kennedy, Orkney & Shetland and Fife NE. Do you think Aberdeen W and Kincardine is going to go Tory? Or a tossup between them and the SNP?

    Chuka saying Labour didn't target Swindon! Who are you kidding when Ed went there?!!!!! LOL
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    ANOTHER Tory gain from Labour in Birmingham, in Kings Norton.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    LabourList @LabourList

    Labour lose to seats to UKIP in Hartlepool and overall control of the council. http://ow.ly/xanH8

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014

    5.5% Lab -> Con swing since 2012 on results so far

    Swing is currently 3% from Con to Lab compared to 2010.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Booooooo lab hold hartlepool
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Robert Machado @RJMachado06

    Labour lose Hartlepool to No Overall Control. This is turning pretty nasty for @UKLabour

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Michael Heaver ‏@Michael_Heaver 16s

    UKIP have just won seat off of Tory Leader of Thurrock Council! That's three council leaders now.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    General Election @UKELECTIONS2015

    CONSERVATIVES lose SOUTHEND ON SEA

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    WWC Labour going to UKIP and letting in the Tories in Brum?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736


    Robert Machado @RJMachado06

    Labour lose Hartlepool to No Overall Control. This is turning pretty nasty for @UKLabour

    INCORRECT LAB Holds Hartlepool
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Peter Bone gunning for a coupon election
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Utterly stupid, stupid, stupid, Thornberry on Sky
    No wonder Labour are shite.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    fitalass said:

    Watch this space on WAK, and expect at least three other Libdems not mentioned in your post to keep their seats next year at the GE.

    hunchman said:

    fitalass said:

    One of his best ever public outings has to be his appearance on a Scottish BBC QuestionTime. I admit, I was half expecting a political car crash. But Jacob Rees Mogg proved me wrong big time. Not only did he manage to achieve what most Tory MP's failed to do on this programme back then, applause after his contributions, he got some genuine and appreciative laughter of his very dry humour. If I didn't know better, I would swear with a wit that dry, he must surely have some Highland blood in his veins. :)

    RobD said:

    I do enjoy a bit of Mogg.

    Was having a look on Electoral Calculus the other day fitalass. Assuming Scotland votes no in September, LibDems forecast to lose all their Scottish MP's apart from Charles Kennedy, Orkney & Shetland and Fife NE. Do you think Aberdeen W and Kincardine is going to go Tory? Or a tossup between them and the SNP?

    Chuka saying Labour didn't target Swindon! Who are you kidding when Ed went there?!!!!! LOL
    So Roxburgh and Berwickshire, Edinburgh West as the other potential holds?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    LabourList @LabourList

    CORRECTION: BBC now reporting Labour have NOT lost control of Hartlepool. Labour hold

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534


    General Election @UKELECTIONS2015

    CONSERVATIVES lose SOUTHEND ON SEA

    Keep an eye open for what happens in Havering. Expect very big UKIP gains.

  • ukLibertarianukLibertarian Posts: 16
    edited May 2014
    P'Boro: Ukip gain Bretton North (from Con)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Ed's going to stick that referendum on Europe for sure now I reckon.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    hunchman said:

    fitalass said:

    Watch this space on WAK, and expect at least three other Libdems not mentioned in your post to keep their seats next year at the GE.

    hunchman said:

    fitalass said:

    One of his best ever public outings has to be his appearance on a Scottish BBC QuestionTime. I admit, I was half expecting a political car crash. But Jacob Rees Mogg proved me wrong big time. Not only did he manage to achieve what most Tory MP's failed to do on this programme back then, applause after his contributions, he got some genuine and appreciative laughter of his very dry humour. If I didn't know better, I would swear with a wit that dry, he must surely have some Highland blood in his veins. :)

    RobD said:

    I do enjoy a bit of Mogg.

    Was having a look on Electoral Calculus the other day fitalass. Assuming Scotland votes no in September, LibDems forecast to lose all their Scottish MP's apart from Charles Kennedy, Orkney & Shetland and Fife NE. Do you think Aberdeen W and Kincardine is going to go Tory? Or a tossup between them and the SNP?

    Chuka saying Labour didn't target Swindon! Who are you kidding when Ed went there?!!!!! LOL
    So Roxburgh and Berwickshire, Edinburgh West as the other potential holds?
    Roxborough is going blue, as is Dumfries and Galloway.
    Blue Borders is the bet
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    To excited again my UKIP supporting chums.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Sean_F said:


    General Election @UKELECTIONS2015

    CONSERVATIVES lose SOUTHEND ON SEA

    Keep an eye open for what happens in Havering. Expect very big UKIP gains.

    I live there and dont know anyone who isnt voting UKIP
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Andy Smith @ColonelAndy

    @simplysimontfa @UKIP Thankfully the Establishment parties' smear campaign against UKIP does not seem to have worked very well

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    If UKIP are denied the EU election by AIFE, imagine how many angry UKIP voters there will be riled up for 2015
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    We've had 12 out of 40 results from Birmingham so far, the biggest local authority in Europe.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @BBCPolitics: From @ChrisMasonBBC: Ukip loses only seat on Hastings borough council. Conservative gain http://t.co/V4MgCFWjxm
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Tyke

    To be honest I think all it did was give UKIP publicity. I would add this was a Tory led charge.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    isam said:

    If UKIP are denied the EU election by AIFE, imagine how many angry UKIP voters there will be riled up for 2015

    They won't be denied by AIFE but by cretins that can't read a ballot paper
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Dan Hodges is enjoying himself on Twitter:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    BBC's current total show no net Labour gains at all.
  • ukLibertarianukLibertarian Posts: 16
    edited May 2014
    Ten UKIP seats in Rotherham
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    If UKIP are denied the EU election by AIFE, imagine how many angry UKIP voters there will be riled up for 2015

    They won't be denied by AIFE but by cretins that can't read a ballot paper
    Yes, lets see how they react to the press telling them that
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Labour currently on a net loss of one councillor!
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Curtice was saying that 80 UKIP gains would be a fantastic result. They're already on 36. Staggering performance.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited May 2014
    isam said:

    Sean_F said:


    General Election @UKELECTIONS2015

    CONSERVATIVES lose SOUTHEND ON SEA

    Keep an eye open for what happens in Havering. Expect very big UKIP gains.

    I live there and dont know anyone who isnt voting UKIP
    Anecdotal:

    My three closest work colleagues all leaning towards UKIP. One couldn't vote as she is on holiday (In Great Yarmouth !), one wasn't sure if he'd vote - other was nailed on.

    Not 3 definite voters, but the sentiment is there....

    This is in Sheffield btw - UKIP gains in Rotherham, seem to be a truly national phenomenom.

    UKIP have the big mo.

    Still reckon Con hold Newark though Labour surely don't have a prayer there (Not that they ever had)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    UKIP are up 6 in Southend, 4 in Basildon and Castle Point, 2 in Thurrock.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    isam said:

    If UKIP are denied the EU election by AIFE, imagine how many angry UKIP voters there will be riled up for 2015

    They won't be denied by AIFE but by cretins that can't read a ballot paper
    Indeed - stupidity is no defence.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    AndyJS said:

    Dan Hodges is enjoying himself on Twitter:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges

    Blimey

    He is exactly like the anti Kippers on here... never admit when they are wrong
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Labour not doing well in marginals in West Midllands. More tea with your toast Mr Miliband?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Chris Mason @ChrisMasonBBC

    Curtice: Tories make 2 gains from Lab in Birmingham as a result of the Lab vote falling more heavily than the Con vote in wake of UKIP

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    isam said:

    isam said:

    If UKIP are denied the EU election by AIFE, imagine how many angry UKIP voters there will be riled up for 2015

    They won't be denied by AIFE but by cretins that can't read a ballot paper
    Yes, lets see how they react to the press telling them that
    Well, quite. Cretins never like it being pointed out to them!
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    BBC
    Basildon heading towards NOC due to Ukip gains.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    AveryLP said:

    Labour currently on a net loss of one councillor!

    Make that 2....

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dan Hodges is enjoying himself on Twitter:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges

    Blimey

    He is exactly like the anti Kippers on here... never admit when they are wrong
    The general election's the test, isam. And we're still talking possibly no seats, possibly one, possibly two.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    marke09 said:

    Rob Wilson ‏@RobWilson_RDG 13m

    Labour leader of Rotherham has just lost his seat to UKIP.

    suffer the little children to come unto me
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Curtice was saying that 80 UKIP gains would be a fantastic result. They're already on 36. Staggering performance.

    Looking good for Euro votes.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Croydon man Winston McKenzie telling David Dimbleby why Croydon is a dump...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Grandiose said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dan Hodges is enjoying himself on Twitter:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges

    Blimey

    He is exactly like the anti Kippers on here... never admit when they are wrong
    The general election's the test, isam. And we're still talking possibly no seats, possibly one, possibly two.
    Dear oh law
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    UKIP candidates are well different...
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    The Croydon Ukip guy, Winston Whathisname is in full flow on the BBC.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Wow.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    UKIP moron on BBC alert
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    TGOHF said:

    @BBCPolitics: From @ChrisMasonBBC: Ukip loses only seat on Hastings borough council. Conservative gain http://t.co/V4MgCFWjxm

    It wasn't our tattooed porn star was it?

    He was the one Kipper loon I hoped would win!
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    If you are reading this on friday. Just watch Iplayer at this time....
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Winston Mckenzie, I think he holds a record for most different. parties he's stood as a candidate for.

    (Lib Dem, Labour, Conservative, UKIP, Veritas, and more I think).
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    After contemplating and digesting these results most carefully I offer to my fellow PBers my most considered opinion :

    Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister

    .................................................................

    Good Night ....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Labour still have four quarters of economic growth and a politically engineered vote-buying budget coming down the pike at them too....
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Winston McKenzie is a complete loon.
  • UKIP Winston: "The UKIP Fox is in the house and feathers are flying" lol
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    I hope enough Labour voters have got out of bed to win the Euros in London.

    Getting slightly worried about that bet !
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    UKIP so far have won 1 in 7 seats declared.
    I wonder if Labour will end the day with not much of a gain in number of seats.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I think he might be a little too much for the Loonies.
    corporeal said:

    Winston Mckenzie, I think he holds a record for most different. parties he's stood as a candidate for.

    (Lib Dem, Labour, Conservative, UKIP, Veritas, and more I think).

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    The three seats I had in mind were not mentioned in your post.
    hunchman said:

    fitalass said:

    Watch this space on WAK, and expect at least three other Libdems not mentioned in your post to keep their seats next year at the GE.

    hunchman said:

    fitalass said:

    One of his best ever public outings has to be his appearance on a Scottish BBC QuestionTime. I admit, I was half expecting a political car crash. But Jacob Rees Mogg proved me wrong big time. Not only did he manage to achieve what most Tory MP's failed to do on this programme back then, applause after his contributions, he got some genuine and appreciative laughter of his very dry humour. If I didn't know better, I would swear with a wit that dry, he must surely have some Highland blood in his veins. :)

    RobD said:

    I do enjoy a bit of Mogg.

    Was having a look on Electoral Calculus the other day fitalass. Assuming Scotland votes no in September, LibDems forecast to lose all their Scottish MP's apart from Charles Kennedy, Orkney & Shetland and Fife NE. Do you think Aberdeen W and Kincardine is going to go Tory? Or a tossup between them and the SNP?

    Chuka saying Labour didn't target Swindon! Who are you kidding when Ed went there?!!!!! LOL
    So Roxburgh and Berwickshire, Edinburgh West as the other potential holds?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Simon Richards @simplysimontfa

    If these elections were a trial, you'd say that, after being prosecuted for the most heinous crimes, the jury has found UKIP not guilty

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014
    McLeod ‏@TerenceMcleod 4m

    #BBCElections Essex turning UKIP. They were the original Londoners before mass immigration.
    Expand

    Emily Thorberry.. is she a Labour poster on here??? Sounds like one
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    O Flynn just absolutey ripped Thornberry on Sky
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    looking like a bad night for Labour - almost like a kind of 'crossover result':))
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Either that or buckie has started a marketing offensive in Croydon.
    AveryLP said:

    Winston McKenzie is a complete loon.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'm concentrating on Birmingham, Cannock Chase and Hastings at the moment, in case anyone's wondering about the spreadsheets.
This discussion has been closed.