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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: Local Election Polling Day (May 22nd 2014)

As there are 74 local by-elections being held today it would be impossible to profile them all, so I have chosen the ones that could be rather juicy given the prospect of the expected UKIP flood.

Read the full story here

GeoffM

First!

Charles

First ... Like a Tory

Edit. I'll settle for second place

Stuart_Dickson

Scottish independence: Better Together ignores the youth vote to its cost

... As a student at the University of Edinburgh, I come into contact with the independence debate almost daily, and the positivity and openness of young Yes campaigners present a stark contrast to advocates of the union. "Yes" posters and stickers are plastered across the campus, yet the blue Better Together logo is notably absent. This in a city regarded as a union stronghold. The strong presence of the Yes campaign across social media – 20,000 more followers than Better Together on Twitter if that’s anything to go by - only encourages these young supporters of independence to keep sharing their cause, loud and proud.

... A season of optimism approaches, and if Better Together merely continues to tread water, the Yes campaign will have made decisive gains come September.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10849332/Scottish-independence-Better-Together-ignores-the-youth-vote-to-its-cost.html

Life_ina_market_town

Stuart_Dickson said:

Scottish independence: Better Together ignores the youth vote to its cost

... As a student at the University of Edinburgh, I come into contact with the independence debate almost daily, and the positivity and openness of young Yes campaigners present a stark contrast to advocates of the union.

Utopianism does particularly appeal to the young.

Alanbrooke

Charles said:

First ... Like a Tory

Edit. I'll settle for second place

Tory comes first.

Hope your wife's not a kipper she'll never be satisfied.

steve_garner

Voted in Morley at about 7.30pm. The staff said turnout was pitifully low due to the awful weather here today.

Stuart_Dickson

Sean_F said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

NickPalmer said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

david_herdson said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Frank, LAB at 3.4 (3.45 now btw) is not that incredible. Coral have the same price.

I suspect that LAB are going to have serious GOTV woes in parts of GB which are not also voting in council elections. Eg. Scotland.

Does any party do a GOTV operation for the Euros when there aren't simultaneous local elections? Most activists I've met who'd be willing to do GOTV activity at local or general elections are distinctly unmotivated to do likewise for the Europeans.

- "Does any party do a GOTV operation for the Euros when there aren't simultaneous local elections?"

Yes. The Scottish National Party.

Hell yes - we've had teams out all day.

David Herdson's comment - "Most activists I've met who'd be willing to do GOTV activity at local or general elections are distinctly unmotivated to do likewise for the Europeans" - is very telling. It tells us a lot about morale among ordinary Conservative activists. They are dispirited.

GOTV can make a real difference in a particular ward. Across an entire region, not much.

Not true. It got Winnie Ewing elected an MEP umpteen times (I was one of her GOTV workers). And worked a treat for her colleagues Allan Macartney and Ian Hudghton too. I was at the count when Hudghton whipped SLAB at the North East Scotland Euro by-election in 1998 (Labour finished an astonishing 3rd). The looks on the faces of the BBC journalists was a picture to behold. They were utterly horrified. I think that that was the exact moment when I fully realised that the BBC was never, and could never be, impartial. They had a side, and they backed that side in every single underhand way they possibly could. They are still at it.

http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P2-23731826.html

Sean_F

Stuart_Dickson said:

Scottish independence: Better Together ignores the youth vote to its cost

... As a student at the University of Edinburgh, I come into contact with the independence debate almost daily, and the positivity and openness of young Yes campaigners present a stark contrast to advocates of the union. "Yes" posters and stickers are plastered across the campus, yet the blue Better Together logo is notably absent. This in a city regarded as a union stronghold. The strong presence of the Yes campaign across social media – 20,000 more followers than Better Together on Twitter if that’s anything to go by - only encourages these young supporters of independence to keep sharing their cause, loud and proud.

... A season of optimism approaches, and if Better Together merely continues to tread water, the Yes campaign will have made decisive gains come September.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10849332/Scottish-independence-Better-Together-ignores-the-youth-vote-to-its-cost.html

If the student vote really counted for anything, the Socialist Workers would be a major force.

Alanbrooke

Life_ina_market_town said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Scottish independence: Better Together ignores the youth vote to its cost

... As a student at the University of Edinburgh, I come into contact with the independence debate almost daily, and the positivity and openness of young Yes campaigners present a stark contrast to advocates of the union.

Utopianism does particularly appeal to the young.

anecdotally the under 18s were voting 3:1 in favour of the Union. The red white and blue must still have it's idealistic appeal.

Charles

@Alanbrooke

She's GOP. Out kips the kippers any day...

AndyJS

steve_garner said:

Voted in Morley at about 7.30pm. The staff said turnout was pitifully low due to the awful weather here today.

Ed Balls didn't manage to enthuse voters then.

taffys

Papers seem to be tweaking the editorials towards a UKIP win as we head for the close of the polls.

In the Guardian, labour guiding expectations of council seat gains down to 150/200....

GIN1138

taffys said:

In the Guardian, labour guiding expectations of council seat gains down to 150/200....

So that should be about 300-400 when the results come in?

taffys

So that should be about 300-400 when the results come in?

I guess....that's what they were expected to gain, wasn't it?

Danny565

Just voted before... my polling station was deserted. Is it really set to be the highest turnout ever?

JBriskin

[Just voted before... my polling station was deserted. Is it really set to be the highest turnout ever?]

We'll just have to wait and see Danny565

GIN1138

taffys said:

So that should be about 300-400 when the results come in?

I guess....that's what they were expected to gain, wasn't it?

They are expected to make 500 gains by Rallings and Thrasher;

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/04/29/the-2014-rallings-and-thrasher-local-elections-forecasts/

300-400 gains would be disappointing.

What they are spinning (150-200 gains) would be a bit of a disaster, but they always do better than their spin. Well, except when Gordon Brown was running the show and then they always did even worse than their worst expectation management, LOL.

I wonder how many seat losses the Tories are spinning tonight?

AndyJS

Most interesting of the 65 councils to declare tonight:

Cannock Chase, Castle Point, Hull, Hartlepool, Carlisle, Croydon, Eastleigh, Lincoln, Redbridge, Rotherham, Stevenage, Swindon, Worcester, Harlow, Tamworth, Birmingham, Bristol, Gloucester, Haringey, Ipswich, Thurrock, Peterborough, Cambridge, Enfield, Portsmouth, Kingston, Richmond, Hammersmith&Fulham.

Possible Labour/UKIP battles: Hull, Hartlepool, Rotherham.

Con/Lab: Cannock Chase, Carlisle, Croydon, Lincoln, Redbridge, Stevenage, Swindon, Worcester, Harlow, Tamworth, Gloucester, Ipswich, Thurrock, Peterborough, Enfield, Hammersmith&Fulham.

Con/LD: Kingston, Richmond, Portsmouth.

Con/LD/UKIP: Eastleigh.

Lab/LD: Haringey, Cambridge.

Con/UKIP: Castle Point.

Grandiose

Turnout in the Uk has been poor but stable since 1979; across Europe it started high bit has been falling.

Slow and steady wins the race.

RepublicanTory

Just voted in Wingham -Thanet S -and polling station staff said T/O was good even by GE standards.
Strong Kipper area and they have been quite active.

local ex-pit village Aylesham-had more UKIP posters in windows than I have seen anywhere else, although have seen very few posters compared to a GE.

peter_from_putney

That's sorted then - we now know that turnout today was somewhere between "pitifully low" (AndyJS at 9.07pm) and "good even by GE standards" (Republican Tory at 9.20pm). So putting that into hard figures, I'd say somewhere between 25% - 70%.

timmo

AndyJS said:

Most interesting of the 65 councils to declare tonight:

Cannock Chase, Castle Point, Hull, Hartlepool, Carlisle, Croydon, Eastleigh, Lincoln, Redbridge, Rotherham, Stevenage, Swindon, Worcester, Harlow, Tamworth, Birmingham, Bristol, Gloucester, Haringey, Ipswich, Thurrock, Peterborough, Cambridge, Enfield, Portsmouth, Kingston, Richmond, Hammersmith&Fulham.

Possible Labour/UKIP battles: Hull, Hartlepool, Rotherham.

Con/Lab: Cannock Chase, Carlisle, Croydon, Lincoln, Redbridge, Stevenage, Swindon, Worcester, Harlow, Tamworth, Gloucester, Ipswich, Thurrock, Peterborough, Enfield, Hammersmith&Fulham.

Con/LD: Kingston, Richmond, Portsmouth.

Con/LD/UKIP: Eastleigh.

Lab/LD: Haringey, Cambridge.

Con/UKIP: Castle Point.

From what I've been seeing today(or not seeing from the LDs) you should add Sutton to that list!!!

timmo

Sutton is counting overnight whereas Kingston isn't so look at how resilient the LD vote is there.
It could come down to the turnout which is pretty low..

Verulamius

Currently telling in St Albans. Turnout above average for locals.

RepublicanTory

P_f_P
25-70% T/O

If only we could be that precise!!

Garethofthevale

peter_from_putney said:

That's sorted then - we now know that turnout today was somewhere between "pitifully low" AndyJS at 9.07pm) and "good even by GE standards" (Republican Tory at 9.20pm). So putting that into hard figures, I'd say somewhere between 25% - 70%.

I suspect there will be massive variation depending on whether there are locals or not. Here in the Vale of White Horse it seems to be pretty low (no locals)

Pulpstar

Danny565 said:

Just voted before... my polling station was deserted. Is it really set to be the highest turnout ever?

Abysmal turnout here in Killamarsh, very safe labour, no locals

Charles

peter_from_putney said:

That's sorted then - we now know that turnout today was somewhere between "pitifully low" AndyJS at 9.07pm) and "good even by GE standards" (Republican Tory at 9.20pm). So putting that into hard figures, I'd say somewhere between 25% - 70%.

That's bang in line with NickPalmer's estimate on the last thread...

AndyJS

It wasn't me who commented on turnout, although my polling station was deserted as usual.

Richard_Tyndall

How soon after polls close would we normally expect to get turnout figures in Euro/Locals ?

AndyJS

timmo said:

AndyJS said:

Most interesting of the 65 councils to declare tonight:

Cannock Chase, Castle Point, Hull, Hartlepool, Carlisle, Croydon, Eastleigh, Lincoln, Redbridge, Rotherham, Stevenage, Swindon, Worcester, Harlow, Tamworth, Birmingham, Bristol, Gloucester, Haringey, Ipswich, Thurrock, Peterborough, Cambridge, Enfield, Portsmouth, Kingston, Richmond, Hammersmith&Fulham.

Possible Labour/UKIP battles: Hull, Hartlepool, Rotherham.

Con/Lab: Cannock Chase, Carlisle, Croydon, Lincoln, Redbridge, Stevenage, Swindon, Worcester, Harlow, Tamworth, Gloucester, Ipswich, Thurrock, Peterborough, Enfield, Hammersmith&Fulham.

Con/LD: Kingston, Richmond, Portsmouth.

Con/LD/UKIP: Eastleigh.

Lab/LD: Haringey, Cambridge.

Con/UKIP: Castle Point.

From what I've been seeing today(or not seeing from the LDs) you should add Sutton to that list!!!

Sutton has been a LD stronghold since 1986. Difficult to believe they might be in trouble there.

According to the PA list Kingston is declaring at 6am. Is that incorrect information?

Cityunslicker

who-cares-re-turnout-its-all-apostal-vote-fixing-conspriacy-ain't-it?

so say losing parties come 9am tomorrow...

corporeal

I can report that at least 1 person voted Lib Dem in Wales.

Stark_Dawning

A friend of mine is working as a polling clerk in the Cotswolds - turnout moribund apparently.

AndyJS

Richard_Tyndall said:

How soon after polls close would we normally expect to get turnout figures in Euro/Locals ?

Broxbourne are expected to be the first to declare at 2345, so you'd expect turnout figures by about 2230-2245.

AveryLP

Stark_Dawning said:

A friend of mine is working as a polling clerk in the Cotswolds - turnout moribund apparently.

Not too many Putin supporters in the Cotswolds.

AndyJS

Turnout will be 35-40%. It always is.

RepublicanTory

We don't have Local elections here which is why the surprise that T/O was reasonably good.

By the way I didn't say it was the same as a GE-merely good compared to a GE ie close to not half of.
But the weather has been pretty good and it is a small village and a short walk for most so there isn't much of an excuse to get out and vote!!

peter_from_putney

AndyJS said:

It wasn't me who commented on turnout, although my polling station was deserted as usual.

Sorry Andy - I should have quoted Steve Garner instead of you.

AndyJS

I will be attempting to do a running totals spreadsheet as the results come in, although it may be difficult if councils are rubbish at putting the results online speedily.

RepublicanTory

AndyJS said:

Turnout will be 35-40%. It always is.

This campaign certainly seems to have generated more coverage than usual for the Euros-it will be interesting to see if that impacts on T/O?

shadsy

Anyone remember this point 5 years ago? James Purnell resigned as the polls closed, and the betting markets went into meltdown, convinced Brown was finished and a 2009 General election would result.

kle4

RepublicanTory said:

AndyJS said:

Turnout will be 35-40%. It always is.

This campaign certainly seems to have generated more coverage than usual for the Euros-it will be interesting to see if that impacts on T/O?

Hopefully so. It may be a European election, but it should still get a higher turnout than in the past, and if it hasn't happened this time, when will it?*

*Besides a referendum on IN/OUT

AndyJS

Labour may be a little concerned about the possibility of low turnouts in Wales (and maybe Scotland) where there aren't any local elections taking place. Of course they'll win the most votes in places like Rhondda and Merthyr Tydfil, but if turnout is only 20% it won't do much for their national share.

Scott_P

@Sun_Politics: You/Gov Sun poll for GE2015 -Tories and Labour neck-and-neck: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%

TheScreamingEagles

@Sun_Politics: You/Gov Sun poll for GE2015 -Tories and Labour neck-and-neck: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%

MikeL

Here's some drama to start the night!

You/Gov Sun poll for GE2015 -Tories and Labour neck-and-neck: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%

kle4

corporeal said:

I can report that at least 1 person voted Lib Dem in Wales.

Excellent. Now just need to confirm one vote in Scotland, and they can count it a good night by remaining a true national party with appeal in all sections of Britain.

maaarsh

all square on 34% with yougov.

AndyJS

TheScreamingEagles said:

@Sun_Politics: You/Gov Sun poll for GE2015 -Tories and Labour neck-and-neck: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%

That's useful, having it neck-and-neck in the polls, for comparison with the local election shares.

TOPPING

I still get a(n albeit small) frisson of excitement when I get my polling card. The State has put its trust in me and I will accept that burden with grace and determination. For the moment, and especially when I am inside that plywood booth with its various dos and donts pasted up in front of me, I am in charge.

The fact that so many people get those cards and say to themselves "meh" I find very curious and disappointing.

JBriskin

Wow - that is a blast from the past Shadsy - I admit I can barely remember (genuinely)

TheScreamingEagles

It pissed it down in Sheffield today, particularly between 4pm and 6pm.

Turnout is reported to be better than expected, and the Lib Dems really were active in Dore.

NickPalmer

OK, going to the verification in 10 minutes after which I guess I need to be in purdah. No reason to spin anything with the real results coming, but my impression (not a party view, just my personal gleanings):

1. High turnout in middle-class "Guardian" areas - turnout over 50% in our strongest ward of that type. Turnout also highiish in strong Tory wards - who knows for whom though?
2. Council election level turnout in CDE wards.
3. UK should be first in the East Midlands (only needs a 7% swing from Tories), Labour ahead of Tories by a modest margin. The scores last time: Con 30.2, Lab 16.9, UKIP 16.4. So wild guesstimate UKIP 30, Lab 24, Con 22, which would produce the Lab+1 UKIP +1 Con -1 LD -1 result I suggested on the last thread. That would be a roughly 7.5% swing from Con to Lab. If the estimates are a bit out, the Tories could hold on to their 2nd seat. I don't think the LDs or Greens are in contention.

I've never experienced a Euro election with so much voter interest - lots of voters today were really engaged, which in 1999/2004/2009 they really were not. I think I'll win my bet on turnout with DavidL.

TheScreamingEagles

shadsy said:

Anyone remember this point 5 years ago? James Purnell resigned as the polls closed, and the betting markets went into meltdown, convinced Brown was finished and a 2009 General election would result.

Also there were rumours that David Miliband has resigned as well.

foxinsoxuk

Was that the night that David Miliband chickened out, after not getting his brothers backing.

5 years is a very long time in politics...

JBriskin said:

Wow - that is a blast from the past Shadsy - I admit I can barely remember (genuinely)

AndyJS

You've got 1 second left to vote.

AndyJS

Sky News have cameras at the Croydon count.

TheScreamingEagles

Also, I wouldn't read too much into the fact that today's YouGov has the parties level, will likely mean bugger all when it comes to how people voted in the Locals and Euros, cause of differential turnout.

AndyJS

O/T:

Apparently tourists have been ordered off Thai streets at night-time. Won't do much for business.

kle4

TOPPING said:

I still get a(n albeit small) frisson of excitement when I get my polling card. The State has put its trust in me and I will accept that burden with grace and determination. For the moment, and especially when I am inside that plywood booth with its various dos and donts pasted up in front of me, I am in charge.

The fact that so many people get those cards and say to themselves "meh" I find very curious and disappointing.

That so many people would mock your even minute excitement is also very disappointing. Granted, normal people do not care as much about politics as people willing to leave comments on a political blog, but it still irks me at moments such as during today, when an acqaintance grew quite heated in almost anger during a discussion (which I did not instigate) about whether or not those involved had ever voted. It wasn't even as though they were just blind furious at the political class, that at least I could understand, it was actually contempt for anyone who chose to vote at all for any reason.

I too will admit to being a sad b*stard who felt a soupcon of excitement at receivint my polling card.

corporeal

foxinsoxuk said:

Was that the night that David Miliband chickened out, after not getting his brothers backing.

5 years is a very long time in politics...

JBriskin said:

Wow - that is a blast from the past Shadsy - I admit I can barely remember (genuinely)

Foxy, diplomacy messages, Quick!

TheScreamingEagles

Oh and X-Men: Days of Future Past rocked, and there's an extra scene right after all the credits.

anotherDave

NickPalmer said:

OK, going to the verification in 10 minutes after which I guess I need to be in purdah. No reason to spin anything with the real results coming, but my impression (not a party view, just my personal gleanings):

1. High turnout in middle-class "Guardian" areas - turnout over 50% in our strongest ward of that type. Turnout also highiish in strong Tory wards - who knows for whom though?
2. Council election level turnout in CDE wards.
3. UK should be first in the East Midlands (only needs a 7% swing from Tories), Labour ahead of Tories by a modest margin. The scores last time: Con 30.2, Lab 16.9, UKIP 16.4. So wild guesstimate UKIP 30, Lab 24, Con 22, which would produce the Lab+1 UKIP +1 Con -1 LD -1 result I suggested on the last thread. That would be a roughly 7.5% swing from Con to Lab. If the estimates are a bit out, the Tories could hold on to their 2nd seat. I don't think the LDs or Greens are in contention.

I've never experienced a Euro election with so much voter interest - lots of voters today were really engaged, which in 1999/2004/2009 they really were not. I think I'll win my bet on turnout with DavidL.

You say the anti-UKIP vote was super-strong, then predict UKIP to win by 6 points.

??

corporeal

kle4 said:

corporeal said:

I can report that at least 1 person voted Lib Dem in Wales.

Excellent. Now just need to confirm one vote in Scotland, and they can count it a good night by remaining a true national party with appeal in all sections of Britain.

Given I hear we have a candidate from Gibraltar we'll even be appealing on the territories.

Charles

kle4 said:

TOPPING said:

I still get a(n albeit small) frisson of excitement when I get my polling card. The State has put its trust in me and I will accept that burden with grace and determination. For the moment, and especially when I am inside that plywood booth with its various dos and donts pasted up in front of me, I am in charge.

The fact that so many people get those cards and say to themselves "meh" I find very curious and disappointing.

That so many people would mock your even minute excitement is also very disappointing. Granted, normal people do not care as much about politics as people willing to leave comments on a political blog, but it still irks me at moments such as during today, when an acqaintance grew quite heated in almost anger during a discussion (which I did not instigate) about whether or not those involved had ever voted. It wasn't even as though they were just blind furious at the political class, that at least I could understand, it was actually contempt for anyone who chose to vote at all for any reason.

I too will admit to being a sad b*stard who felt a soupcon of excitement at receivint my polling card.

Overheard on the Tube this evening two old ladies laughing about voting for UKIP. But were struggling - of the view that no one worth voting for, but didn't like ukip

JBriskin

foxinsoxuk said:

Was that the night that David Miliband chickened out, after not getting his brothers backing.

5 years is a very long time in politics...

JBriskin said:

Wow - that is a blast from the past Shadsy - I admit I can barely remember (genuinely)

From the TV it just looked like he resigned because he was anti-brown - I don't know anything else.

corporeal

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh and X-Men: Days of Future Past rocked, and there's an extra scene right after all the credits.

TSE, article that may interest you.

http://grantland.com/features/comic-book-movies-marvel-x-men-batman-dc-comics/

kle4

I find the phenomenom of lower turnout in crap weather truly a bit surprising, even considering human nature. Either you care about voting or your don't. If you don't care enough to the point that a shower will dissuade you from bothering, it seems like such a person would not have cared enough in the first place, and yet apparently that is not the case, and many people care enough to contribute to the chaotic mess that is democracy, but only if it's sunny out. Curious.

RochdalePioneers

After all day in that London AND my train back leaving 13 late AND getting held behind slower trains in front AND running in Darlington back to the car AND doing *cough* 70mph down the A66, I was absolutely positively definitely the last to vote in my Thornaby polling station at 21:54. Turnout there was 10%.....

nigel4england

anotherDave said:

NickPalmer said:

OK, going to the verification in 10 minutes after which I guess I need to be in purdah. No reason to spin anything with the real results coming, but my impression (not a party view, just my personal gleanings):

1. High turnout in middle-class "Guardian" areas - turnout over 50% in our strongest ward of that type. Turnout also highiish in strong Tory wards - who knows for whom though?
2. Council election level turnout in CDE wards.
3. UK should be first in the East Midlands (only needs a 7% swing from Tories), Labour ahead of Tories by a modest margin. The scores last time: Con 30.2, Lab 16.9, UKIP 16.4. So wild guesstimate UKIP 30, Lab 24, Con 22, which would produce the Lab+1 UKIP +1 Con -1 LD -1 result I suggested on the last thread. That would be a roughly 7.5% swing from Con to Lab. If the estimates are a bit out, the Tories could hold on to their 2nd seat. I don't think the LDs or Greens are in contention.

I've never experienced a Euro election with so much voter interest - lots of voters today were really engaged, which in 1999/2004/2009 they really were not. I think I'll win my bet on turnout with DavidL.

You say the anti-UKIP vote was super-strong, then predict UKIP to win by 6 points.

??

He's Labour, they don't do economics

kle4

corporeal said:

kle4 said:

corporeal said:

I can report that at least 1 person voted Lib Dem in Wales.

Excellent. Now just need to confirm one vote in Scotland, and they can count it a good night by remaining a true national party with appeal in all sections of Britain.

Given I hear we have a candidate from Gibraltar we'll even be appealing on the territories.

Well, with having an MEP previously (still? we shall see) representing SW and Gibraltar, it seems only right some Gibraltarians should choose to stand for them. I do wonder how our parties match up with those on Gibraltar.

MarqueeMark

Well, polls are closed - that was the earthquake.

Did the earth move for you?

Stark_Dawning

TheScreamingEagles said:

shadsy said:

Anyone remember this point 5 years ago? James Purnell resigned as the polls closed, and the betting markets went into meltdown, convinced Brown was finished and a 2009 General election would result.

Also there were rumours that David Miliband has resigned as well.

Quite justifiably rumours though. Wasn't the understanding amongst the plotters that Purnell would jump first and D Miliband would be seconds behind? Miliband must look back now and realize that that one moment when he froze was to shape the rest of his life.

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh and X-Men: Days of Future Past rocked.

Thank goodness. Heaven knows I thought First Class was a fantastic movie, but I was worried returning to what, from the trailers, seemed a return to the overly Wolverine focused X-men movies, might prove troublesome.

I have similar concerns for GOTG, having to introduce a whole team of unknowns, perhaps focusing too much on one or just spreading itself too thin. We shall see.

MrJones

shadsy said:

Anyone remember this point 5 years ago? James Purnell resigned as the polls closed, and the betting markets went into meltdown, convinced Brown was finished and a 2009 General election would result.

Purnell had the best chance of emulating Blair imo so the other Miliband not resigning nuked Purnell's chances.

RobD

Annoyingly the BBC have decided not to publish their seat totals for each council up for election.

MikeK

What do the BBC know that we don't? Nick Robertson looks like he expects the worst. The worst that is for the Lab/Lib/Con party.

AndyJS

2014 local elections, summary / running totals spreadsheet, (focusing on votes rather than seats):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGZMVENacEVqMUI0bWZaQk13c041S3c&usp=drive_web#gid=0

Towards the bottom right you can see the votes cast in 2010 in each council.

GeoffM

kle4 said:

corporeal said:

kle4 said:

corporeal said:

I can report that at least 1 person voted Lib Dem in Wales.

Excellent. Now just need to confirm one vote in Scotland, and they can count it a good night by remaining a true national party with appeal in all sections of Britain.

Given I hear we have a candidate from Gibraltar we'll even be appealing on the territories.

Well, with having an MEP previously (still? we shall see) representing SW and Gibraltar, it seems only right some Gibraltarians should choose to stand for them. I do wonder how our parties match up with those on Gibraltar.

kle4 I gave a locals view of the matchup on the previous thread. Let me dig it out in a second.

There is indeed a LibDem candidate from Gib. Lyanna Armstrong-Emery. She used to be head of the Gib Green Party but closed it down, founded a local Friends of the Earth pressure group instead and rejoined the LibDems. She stood for the Greens in the last Euros but, IIRC under a Reform Party banner or similar.

Her husband is a good friend of mine, an Englishman and ex maths teacher. After their divorce he returned to the UK where, true to his roots, he stood as a Green council candidate in the Hove area last year.

stjohn

Isn't one school of thought that David M was poised to take on Brown but that Ed M talked him out of it. The rest of course is history.

anotherDave

MikeK said:

What do the BBC know that we don't? Nick Robertson looks like he expects the worst. The worst that is for the Lab/Lib/Con party.

If UKIP do well tonight, the BBC is going to be must-watch telly all week. :-)

fitalass

Condolences to you, your wife and the family on your sad loss.

Sean_F said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Scottish independence: Better Together ignores the youth vote to its cost

... As a student at the University of Edinburgh, I come into contact with the independence debate almost daily, and the positivity and openness of young Yes campaigners present a stark contrast to advocates of the union. "Yes" posters and stickers are plastered across the campus, yet the blue Better Together logo is notably absent. This in a city regarded as a union stronghold. The strong presence of the Yes campaign across social media – 20,000 more followers than Better Together on Twitter if that’s anything to go by - only encourages these young supporters of independence to keep sharing their cause, loud and proud.

... A season of optimism approaches, and if Better Together merely continues to tread water, the Yes campaign will have made decisive gains come September.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10849332/Scottish-independence-Better-Together-ignores-the-youth-vote-to-its-cost.html

If the student vote really counted for anything, the Socialist Workers would be a major force.

RobD

AndyJS said:

2014 local elections, summary / running totals spreadsheet, (focusing on votes rather than seats):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGZMVENacEVqMUI0bWZaQk13c041S3c&usp=drive_web#gid=0

Towards the bottom right you can see the votes cast in 2010 in each council.

And to piggy-back on this, one for seats instead of votes! PB is being spoilt with data today!

http://goo.gl/4AJwpD

DavidL

I remain quietly confident Nick. Being where there are locals gives a false impression.

kle4

GeoffM said:

kle4 said:

corporeal said:

kle4 said:

corporeal said:

I can report that at least 1 person voted Lib Dem in Wales.

Excellent. Now just need to confirm one vote in Scotland, and they can count it a good night by remaining a true national party with appeal in all sections of Britain.

Given I hear we have a candidate from Gibraltar we'll even be appealing on the territories.

Well, with having an MEP previously (still? we shall see) representing SW and Gibraltar, it seems only right some Gibraltarians should choose to stand for them. I do wonder how our parties match up with those on Gibraltar.

kle4 I gave a locals view of the matchup on the previous thread. Let me dig it out in a second.

There is indeed a LibDem candidate from Gib. Lyanna Armstrong-Emery. She used to be head of the Gib Green Party but closed it down, founded a local Friends of the Earth pressure group instead and rejoined the LibDems. She stood for the Greens in the last Euros but, IIRC under a Reform Party banner or similar.

Her husband is a good friend of mine, an Englishman and ex maths teacher. After their divorce he returned to the UK where, true to his roots, he stood as a Green council candidate in the Hove area last year.

Many thanks - I've only just got in from work, so have missed all the excitement no doubt.

Freggles

RochdalePioneers, amazed someone on here lives so close to me (same Council)!

Sadly didn't check how turnout had been when I went to vote.

Edin_Rokz

Stuart_Dickson said:

Sean_F said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

NickPalmer said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

david_herdson said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Frank, LAB at 3.4 (3.45 now btw) is not that incredible. Coral have the same price.

I suspect that LAB are going to have serious GOTV woes in parts of GB which are not also voting in council elections. Eg. Scotland.

Does any party do a GOTV operation for the Euros when there aren't simultaneous local elections? Most activists I've met who'd be willing to do GOTV activity at local or general elections are distinctly unmotivated to do likewise for the Europeans.

- "Does any party do a GOTV operation for the Euros when there aren't simultaneous local elections?"

Yes. The Scottish National Party.

Hell yes - we've had teams out all day.

David Herdson's comment - "Most activists I've met who'd be willing to do GOTV activity at local or general elections are distinctly unmotivated to do likewise for the Europeans" - is very telling. It tells us a lot about morale among ordinary Conservative activists. They are dispirited.

GOTV can make a real difference in a particular ward. Across an entire region, not much.

Not true. It got Winnie Ewing elected an MEP umpteen times (I was one of her GOTV workers). And worked a treat for her colleagues Allan Macartney and Ian Hudghton too. I was at the count when Hudghton whipped SLAB at the North East Scotland Euro by-election in 1998 (Labour finished an astonishing 3rd). The looks on the faces of the BBC journalists was a picture to behold. They were utterly horrified. I think that that was the exact moment when I fully realised that the BBC was never, and could never be, impartial. They had a side, and they backed that side in every single underhand way they possibly could. They are still at it.

http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P2-23731826.html

Er! I take it you are going to be Alec Neil's Election Agent?

AndyJS

Any rumours yet from party workers?

AndyJS

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

2014 local elections, summary / running totals spreadsheet, (focusing on votes rather than seats):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGZMVENacEVqMUI0bWZaQk13c041S3c&usp=drive_web#gid=0

Towards the bottom right you can see the votes cast in 2010 in each council.

And to piggy-back on this, one for seats instead of votes! PB is being spoilt with data today!

http://goo.gl/4AJwpD

Nice work — glad we didn't do the same thing!

fitalass

Telegraph - SNP student leader in racism row for calling David Cameron an English t***

Stuart_Dickson said:

Scottish independence: Better Together ignores the youth vote to its cost

... As a student at the University of Edinburgh, I come into contact with the independence debate almost daily, and the positivity and openness of young Yes campaigners present a stark contrast to advocates of the union.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10849332/Scottish-independence-Better-Together-ignores-the-youth-vote-to-its-cost.html

GeoffM

kle4 said:

Many thanks - I've only just got in from work, so have missed all the excitement no doubt.

No problem kle4. I hope this from the last thread gives some background on the Gibraltar matchup as you and @corporeal were discussing. Apologies (sort of) for the LibDem digs in it

GeoffM said:

Pulpstar said:

Aha just seen - part of the SW region.

I'm going to go out on a limb here GeoffM and reckon UKIP might just beat the Lib Dems ^_~

@Pulpstar and @Casino_Royale

Politics here is a bit strange. The government is a coalition of Socialist Labour (formally affiliated with UK Labour) and Liberal (formally affiliated with the LibDems) with the Social Democrats in opposition (informally close to the Conservatives)

The Conservatives and UKIP have local branches but are only politically active at EU election times and for social gatherings.

UKIP will always struggle here because we remember the Spanish only opened the border at Margaret Thatcher's insistence when the Spanish wanted to join the EU. The fear is that Euroscepticism will cause real on-the-ground problems here from the Spanish. However the Conservatives have always been our strongest supporters.

We also remember Jack Straw and Blair trying to hand us over to Spain without a referendum so UK Labour struggle too with those of us of a certain era.

The LibDem MEP Graham Watson is a pain though. For some unknown reason the local newspaper, in the fashion of a grey squirrel, has crawled up his rectal passage and nests in there only emerging in the summer to gather nuts and berries. He now has name recognition far beyond his limited intelligence and abilities - and therefore unthinking votes.

So it'll be Conservative and then LibDem, Labour, UKIP I would estimate.

RobD

AndyJS said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

2014 local elections, summary / running totals spreadsheet, (focusing on votes rather than seats):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGZMVENacEVqMUI0bWZaQk13c041S3c&usp=drive_web#gid=0

Towards the bottom right you can see the votes cast in 2010 in each council.

And to piggy-back on this, one for seats instead of votes! PB is being spoilt with data today!

http://goo.gl/4AJwpD

Nice work — glad we didn't do the same thing!

PB does need to help us out with council declarations though, so we know what to update when. Hopefully I won't be too busy that this won't be too slow.. Oh, and I was hoping to update the seat totals to make it consistent with the BBC, but they decided not to publish their values, so it'll probably be out by a few dozen seats.

AndyJS

Milton Keynes, Rugby, Daventry are excluded because boundary changes mean comparisons can't be made with 2010. I'm still going to enter today's results from those councils, just not include them in the changes columns.

Scott_P

Ed Miliband has come under attack from his front bench over fears that Labour will be beaten into second place in the European elections.

Anger is growing among senior party figures who believe that a “lacklustre” campaign failed to tackle the threat from Ukip, underplayed the party’s position on immigration, and was out of touch with people on the street.
Doubts were also growing over Mr Miliband’s image after a series of interviews and disastrous photographs.

One leading Labour figure told The Times: “The narrative around Ed Miliband, because it’s the truth, is that he looks weird, sounds weird, is weird.”

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4097882.ece

anotherDave

"...a Dutch exit poll indicated that the anti-Islam, Eurosceptic Freedom Party of Geert Wilders' - which plans to forge an alliance with France's far-right National Front - has fallen well short of its goal of topping the poll."

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-eu-election-netherlands-20140522,0,2062772.story

MrJones

stjohn said:

Isn't one school of thought that David M was poised to take on Brown but that Ed M talked him out of it. The rest of course is history.

The theory being the other Miliband hung back in the end through lack of bottle. Although getting rid of Purnell as a rival might have been a consolation prize.

RochdalePioneers

Freggles said:

RochdalePioneers, amazed someone on here lives so close to me (same Council)!

Sadly didn't check how turnout had been when I went to vote.

Are you south of the rivet? We are plagued be loons who want the likes of Thornaby and Yarm to secede from Stockton and "join Yorkshire". That we're already in Yorkshire (sadly, as a Lancastrian...) its bloody daft.

foxinsoxuk

That is what I understood too.

It would explain the frostiness

stjohn said:

Isn't one school of thought that David M was poised to take on Brown but that Ed M talked him out of it. The rest of course is history.

DavidL

Scott_P said:

Ed Miliband has come under attack from his front bench over fears that Labour will be beaten into second place in the European elections.

Anger is growing among senior party figures who believe that a “lacklustre” campaign failed to tackle the threat from Ukip, underplayed the party’s position on immigration, and was out of touch with people on the street.
Doubts were also growing over Mr Miliband’s image after a series of interviews and disastrous photographs.

One leading Labour figure told The Times: “The narrative around Ed Miliband, because it’s the truth, is that he looks weird, sounds weird, is weird.”

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4097882.ece

That teller looks very familiar. Are we sure he is impartial ?