Oh, sod it. I'm not staying up for this one - no-one will know anything useful till mid-tomorrow and even that's only locals. #Elections2014
Don't make me revoke your political nerd card.
It's more I have to pace myself.
Over the next few days, I have the locals to report on, a Lord Ashcroft 26,000 respondent marginals poll, a Euro election and a Nine Inch Nails gig.
I better go write some more articles that you have to thoroughly re-format.
I blame wordpress, I've reviewed all your threads, and you've not done an Ed is crap thread yet.
I pride myself on trying to look beyond the obvious.
If you could do a thread on should the parties have theme songs at the next election, if so what? I still think Things Can Only Get Better was a key to the Labour landslide in 1997
Anyone have the full vote figures for those two Sunderland results, as opposed to percentages?
Didn't you post those below - interpolate minor parties from votes you know and percentages?
I need full figures for all candidates, not percentages.
But you already posted the votes for labour and UKIP. If you know the percentages, and you know the absolute for any 1, you know the absolute figure for all others.
Anyone have the full vote figures for those two Sunderland results, as opposed to percentages?
Didn't you post those below - interpolate minor parties from votes you know and percentages?
I need full figures for all candidates, not percentages.
But you already posted the votes for labour and UKIP. If you know the percentages, and you know the absolute for any 1, you know the absolute figure for all others.
eh, then there is rounding and it won't be super precise. My OCD wouldn't abide that!
At first glance the Dunderland result suggests the UKIP effect could be to depress slightly the Labour percentage in their heartlands - does not bode well for their Euro performsnce.
Declaration of Result of Poll St Anne`s Ward on Thursday, 22 May 2014 Name of Candidate Votes Election of a City Councillor for N Tony MORRISSEY The Conservative Party Candidate 299 Caroline Leigh ROBINSON Green Party Candidate 92 Keith SAMME UK Independence Party (UK I P) 702 Tom WRIGHT Labour and Co-operative Party Candidate 1,022
Declaration of Result of Poll Sandhill Ward on Thursday, 22 May 2014 Name of Candidate Votes Election of a City Councillor for R David ALLAN Labour Party Candidate 1,478 Christine Mary REED The Conservative Party Candidate 546 Susan WILSON Liberal Democrats 230
Reading all the anecdotes from the last couple of threads makes it sound like turnout is up a fair bit. That has to mean Labour are most likely to win, no?
Declaration of Result of Poll Hendon Ward on Thursday, 22 May 2014 Name of Candidate Votes Election of a City Councillor for F Pauline Veronica FEATONBY-WARREN UK Independence Party (UK I P) 638 David Anthony LAWSON Green Party Candidate 158 Debbie LORRAINE The Conservative Party Candidate 289 Barbara MCCLENNAN Labour and Co-operative Party Candidate 1,162 Owen Richard TAYLOR Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts 70
At first glance the Dunderland result suggests the UKIP effect could be to depress slightly the Labour percentage in their heartlands - does not bode well for their Euro performsnce.
Especially since any split-ticket effect is unlikely to be tilted towards Labour in the Euros compared with the locals, in fact the reverse.
Bodes well for my Euros bets, where I'm a bit stuffed if Labour come first...
Reading all the anecdotes from the last couple of threads makes it sound like turnout is up a fair bit. That has to mean Labour are most likely to win, no?
UKIP surely. They are the NOTA/DNV party so higher turnout in the Euros would mean they have done well.
Martin Powell, a member of Southport Liberal Democrats, emails to point out that one of descriptions registered by the party to use on ballot papers is "Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats". But, he says, "so toxic is the name Nick Clegg thought to be that in spite of a few of us looking for candidates describing themselves as this on ballot papers nationally, we have been unable to find a single one".
I think that just about every Scot who was in a polling booth voting today and saw "Scottish Conservatives – No to independence" will be very clear on the message it intended to convey despite your smeary spin attempts in that post!
Now the polls are closed: one thing that startled me in the Scottish Euro ballot paper, apart from the choice of Britain First, BNP and UKIP as well as Tories, was that the Tories described themselves as "Scottish Conservatives – No to independence". The unanswered question of this rather obvious dog-whistle was, independence from whom? London or Brussels?
Apart from wondering if they had perhaps got their polls mixed up, I thought it looked odd in that Euro context - as if the Tories were claiming to be a hard Europhile party. I'm not sure it made much difference, but it couldn't have helped the loss of votes to UKIP.
Reading all the anecdotes from the last couple of threads makes it sound like turnout is up a fair bit. That has to mean Labour are most likely to win, no?
Depends - on a normal election night this would be good for Labour - tonight it could be all those UKIPPERS
Declaration of Result of Poll Doxford Ward on Thursday, 22 May 2014 Name of Candidate Votes Election of a City Councillor for D Betty GIBSON Labour Party Candidate 1,280 Dominic MCDONOUGH The Conservative Party Candidate 563 Alan Michael David ROBINSON Green Party Candidate 180 Kay ROWHAM UK Independence Party (UK I P) 683
Martin Powell, a member of Southport Liberal Democrats, emails to point out that one of descriptions registered by the party to use on ballot papers is "Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats". But, he says, "so toxic is the name Nick Clegg thought to be that in spite of a few of us looking for candidates describing themselves as this on ballot papers nationally, we have been unable to find a single one".
Reading all the anecdotes from the last couple of threads makes it sound like turnout is up a fair bit. That has to mean Labour are most likely to win, no?
In the Euros?
Nah: this is Farage's night. UKIP is 5% ahead of the field and he's single handed reinvigorated British poltics.
Reading all the anecdotes from the last couple of threads makes it sound like turnout is up a fair bit. That has to mean Labour are most likely to win, no?
In the Euros?
Nah: this is Farage's night. UKIP is 5% ahead of the field and he's single handed reinvigorated British poltics.
Good for you, Nigel.
Shame his nemisis the EU have decided that council results will get all the publicity, and by the time UKIP's big win is announced it will be priced in and downplayed in the media.
Sunderland is my home town and the UKIP scores are very high - in mostly very safe Labour wards - if this is reflected elsewhere it is not great news for Labour.
Declaration of Result of Poll St Chad`s Ward on Thursday, 22 May 2014 Name of Candidate Votes Election of a City Councillor for O Margaret CROSBY Liberal Democrats 90 Gillian GALBRAITH Labour Party Candidate 1,180 Jamie Lee NAST UK Independence Party (UK I P) 610 Keith Charles O`BRIEN The Conservative Party Candidate 1,015
Reading all the anecdotes from the last couple of threads makes it sound like turnout is up a fair bit. That has to mean Labour are most likely to win, no?
In the Euros?
Nah: this is Farage's night. UKIP is 5% ahead of the field and he's single handed reinvigorated British poltics.
Good for you, Nigel.
Shame his nemisis the EU have decided that council results will get all the publicity, and by the time UKIP's big win is announced it will be priced in and downplayed in the media.
I'd rather be front page on Monday morning than lost in the detrius of council results over the next 48 hours
Reading all the anecdotes from the last couple of threads makes it sound like turnout is up a fair bit. That has to mean Labour are most likely to win, no?
In the Euros?
Nah: this is Farage's night. UKIP is 5% ahead of the field and he's single handed reinvigorated British poltics.
Good for you, Nigel.
The 5% ahead was based on low turnout assumptions though, right?
Looks like UKIP are going from nothing to about 25-30% in Sunderland. You'd expect them to do a bit better in the Euro elections, with some people voting Lab in the locals and UKIP in the Euros.
Reading all the anecdotes from the last couple of threads makes it sound like turnout is up a fair bit. That has to mean Labour are most likely to win, no?
In the Euros?
Nah: this is Farage's night. UKIP is 5% ahead of the field and he's single handed reinvigorated British poltics.
Good for you, Nigel.
Shame his nemisis the EU have decided that council results will get all the publicity, and by the time UKIP's big win is announced it will be priced in and downplayed in the media.
I'd rather be front page on Monday morning than lost in the detrius of council results over the next 48 hours
PB will remember the election then, but it will be old news for most people - lots will simply wonder why its front page and believe they heard it earlier, not knowing the count was delayed.
"Ray Finch UKIP @raymondfinch 49m @Helio_Spherical@DanHannanMEP Conservatives only need 9%. Lets hope they only get that. After Mr. Hannan, it is EUphiles all the way."
This news coming at the same time as the Tories are solidly beaten by UKIP in the Euro will surely force Cameron to act. People in wealthy metropolitan circles think of immigration as this difficult issue that flares up now and again, but they forget about it when the newspapers aren't running with it for a while. But as long as half a million people turn up in this country every year, it's going to continue to drive people's politics. Most people in this country actually quite like British culture, and they can tell it's getting diluted year on year. Any Conservative party that doesn't get a grip on this will just do poorer and poorer.
Reading all the anecdotes from the last couple of threads makes it sound like turnout is up a fair bit. That has to mean Labour are most likely to win, no?
In the Euros?
Nah: this is Farage's night. UKIP is 5% ahead of the field and he's single handed reinvigorated British poltics.
Good for you, Nigel.
The 5% ahead was based on low turnout assumptions though, right?
No. Nigel Farage has gotten people voting again. He's gotten people caring again. He's making people argue and discuss politics in a way that hasn't happened since 1997.
RochdalePioneers, amazed someone on here lives so close to me (same Council)!
Sadly didn't check how turnout had been when I went to vote.
Are you south of the rivet? We are plagued be loons who want the likes of Thornaby and Yarm to secede from Stockton and "join Yorkshire". That we're already in Yorkshire (sadly, as a Lancastrian...) its bloody daft.
"....Bodes well for my Euros bets, where I'm a bit stuffed if Labour come first."
So you and I are in the same boat tonite, Richard!
Don't know about you but I am already beginning to feel fairly relaxed. In fact I might even turn in now and let others sweat over the results till the wee small hours.
Declaration of Result of Poll St Chad`s Ward on Thursday, 22 May 2014 Name of Candidate Votes Election of a City Councillor for O Margaret CROSBY Liberal Democrats 90 Gillian GALBRAITH Labour Party Candidate 1,180 Jamie Lee NAST UK Independence Party (UK I P) 610 Keith Charles O`BRIEN The Conservative Party Candidate 1,015
"TomFowdy @Tom_Fowdy #UKIP are possibly close to winning their first seat in #Sunderland with a mega close tie and continual recounts for the hetton ward!"
"....Bodes well for my Euros bets, where I'm a bit stuffed if Labour come first."
So you and I are in the same boat tonite, Richard!
Don't know about you but I am already beginning to feel fairly relaxed. In fact I might even turn in now and let others sweat over the results till the wee small hours.
Nite all.
Yes, I'm going to bed. I shall sleep soundly. G'night.
"TomFowdy @Tom_Fowdy #UKIP are possibly close to winning their first seat in #Sunderland with a mega close tie and continual recounts for the hetton ward!"
twitter.com/Tom_Fowdy/status/469607099375566850
if Con had scrapped postal votes Lab would be getting slaughtered tonight
Looks like UKIP are going from nothing to about 25-30% in Sunderland. You'd expect them to do a bit better in the Euro elections, with some people voting Lab in the locals and UKIP in the Euros.
Remember ComRes marginals for NE (Stockton South) with a sample of 32: UKIP 36% ,CON 33%, LAB 24%, LD 2%. Ted Strike(r) is going to land that seat it seems on the UKIP airport.
Declaration of Result of Poll St Michael`s Ward on Thursday, 22 May 2014 Name of Candidate Votes Election of a City Councillor for P Vincent Gray COSTELLO UK Independence Party (UK I P) 606 Michael DIXON The Conservative Party Candidate 1,501 Rachel Sara FEATHERSTONE Green Party Candidate 250 Zafer IQBAL Labour Party Candidate 866 Andrew WOOD Liberal Democrats 131
MineForNothing @minefornothing 9m Rumour that UKIP has taken Hull
That is impossible even if they won every single seat
Indeed - and a good example of why Twitter is only a useful source of information if those posting are reliable and know what they're talking about.
Of course, they might mean UKIP has finished first in Hull, or is on track to win most seats in this round. Or maybe it's just a rumour with no great foundation.
I'm going to be at one of the Northern Ireland council counts tomorrow morning. I don't know how many on here have experience of a STV count but it can be quite exciting as candidates are eliminated and transfers and vote management makes the difference in deciding the latter seats. Last time the final council seat in my area was decided by a half vote surplus.
In NI, we have both local council elections for the new merged councils (going from 26 to 11) and, of course, the Euros.
We have also had the absolute implosion of NI's newest party, the god awfully named NI21 which started as a liberal unionist party under the auspices of two ex UUP MLAs (Basil McCrea & John McCallister). 48 hours before the elections, the two MLAs decided to have a complete separation and the party is on its knees.
Nominally the issue is one about designation in the NI Assembly, the party was designated Unionist then suddenly Basil McCrea decided it should be 'other' promptly hacking off McCallister.
This is just one mere outward symptom of the problem, which is actually Basil McCrea, who has an ego the size of a small province. The man has poor judgement and I suspect is not going to come out of this well. Believe me some serious stories about this guy.
Meanwhile the germ of an idea that had potential, that of a Unionist party for those that didn't want to wear a Sash, has been shat upon.
That's a real shame. I sat next to McCallister at dinner a couple off years back and really liked what he was trying to do
Declaration of Result of Poll Washington Central Ward on Thursday, 22 May 2014 Name of Candidate Votes Election of a City Councillor for V Anne GRIFFIN Liberal Democrats 137 Marjorie MATTHEWS The Conservative Party Candidate 343 Erland Max Howard POLDEN UK Independence Party (UK I P) 939 Linda WILLIAMS Labour Party Candidate 1,624
"TomFowdy @Tom_Fowdy #UKIP are possibly close to winning their first seat in #Sunderland with a mega close tie and continual recounts for the hetton ward!"
twitter.com/Tom_Fowdy/status/469607099375566850
I've had enough of rumours, give me results for a change.
Any bookies got odds up for which of the kippers on here is going to be first to have a stroke tonight?
Charming
Do you not feel that some people are being a little over excited? The way things are going the least that can be expected will be a severe attack of the vapours.
Any bookies got odds up for which of the kippers on here is going to be first to have a stroke tonight?
Charming
Do you not feel that some people are being a little over excited? The way things are going the least that can be expected will be a severe attack of the vapours.
Comments
Zero.
Battle in the North East
Pallion, Sunderland: Lab 1047, UKIP 659
St Anne's, Sunderland: Lab 1022, UKIP 702
Expand
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGZMVENacEVqMUI0bWZaQk13c041S3c&usp=drive_web#gid=0
and my compilation of seats:
http://goo.gl/4AJwpD
Lab 49.0%
Con 25.2%
LD 18.2%
Ind 4.0%
BNP 3.3%
Green 0.3%
#RUMOUR that UKIP have won two seats in Woking.
Sandhill (Sunderland) Result: LAB - 65.6% CON - 24.2% LDEM - 10.2%
George Eaton @georgeeaton
Lib Dems (3.1%) beaten by Greens (4.8%) in Sunderland Pallion.
Hendon (Sunderland) Result:
LAB - 53.8%
UKIP - 29.6%
CON - 13.4%
TUSC - 3.2%
So UKIP getting 30+% in first two results. Very encouraging.Isn't anyone voting for the LDs?
Just Mike Smithson and some other Dodos
St Anne`s Ward
on Thursday, 22 May 2014
Name of Candidate
Votes
Election of a City Councillor for
N
Tony MORRISSEY
The Conservative Party Candidate
299
Caroline Leigh ROBINSON
Green Party Candidate
92
Keith SAMME
UK Independence Party (UK I P)
702
Tom WRIGHT
Labour and Co-operative Party Candidate
1,022
Sandhill Ward
on Thursday, 22 May 2014
Name of Candidate
Votes
Election of a City Councillor for
R
David ALLAN
Labour Party Candidate
1,478
Christine Mary REED
The Conservative Party Candidate
546
Susan WILSON
Liberal Democrats
230
Hendon Ward
on Thursday, 22 May 2014
Name of Candidate
Votes
Election of a City Councillor for
F
Pauline Veronica FEATONBY-WARREN
UK Independence Party (UK I P)
638
David Anthony LAWSON
Green Party Candidate
158
Debbie LORRAINE
The Conservative Party Candidate
289
Barbara MCCLENNAN
Labour and Co-operative Party Candidate
1,162
Owen Richard TAYLOR
Trade Unionists and Socialists Against
Cuts
70
Hendon (Sunderland) Result: LAB - 53.8% UKIP - 29.6% CON - 13.4% TUSC - 3.2%
Bodes well for my Euros bets, where I'm a bit stuffed if Labour come first...
Anyone else?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/may/22/local-election-results-2014-live#block-537e78e9e4b020b0f5edac0e
Is Farage PM yet ?
Doxford Ward
on Thursday, 22 May 2014
Name of Candidate
Votes
Election of a City Councillor for
D
Betty GIBSON
Labour Party Candidate
1,280
Dominic MCDONOUGH
The Conservative Party Candidate
563
Alan Michael David ROBINSON
Green Party Candidate
180
Kay ROWHAM
UK Independence Party (UK I P)
683
Nah: this is Farage's night. UKIP is 5% ahead of the field and he's single handed reinvigorated British poltics.
Good for you, Nigel.
St Chad's (Sunderland) Result: LAB - 40.8% CON - 35.1% UKIP - 21.1% LDEM - 3.1%
St Chad's (Sunderland) Result:
LAB - 40.8%
CON - 35.1%
UKIP - 21.1%
LDEM - 3.1%
I have the feeling you'll be enjoying some sweet dreams.
St Chad`s Ward
on Thursday, 22 May 2014
Name of Candidate
Votes
Election of a City Councillor for
O
Margaret CROSBY
Liberal Democrats
90
Gillian GALBRAITH
Labour Party Candidate
1,180
Jamie Lee NAST
UK Independence Party (UK I P)
610
Keith Charles O`BRIEN
The Conservative Party Candidate
1,015
Rumour that UKIP has taken Hull
@Helio_Spherical @DanHannanMEP Conservatives only need 9%. Lets hope they only get that. After Mr. Hannan, it is EUphiles all the way."
twitter.com/raymondfinch/status/469595205063417856
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/477557/Conservatives-failing-in-bid-to-cut-migration-as-it-RISES-20-per-cent
This news coming at the same time as the Tories are solidly beaten by UKIP in the Euro will surely force Cameron to act. People in wealthy metropolitan circles think of immigration as this difficult issue that flares up now and again, but they forget about it when the newspapers aren't running with it for a while. But as long as half a million people turn up in this country every year, it's going to continue to drive people's politics. Most people in this country actually quite like British culture, and they can tell it's getting diluted year on year. Any Conservative party that doesn't get a grip on this will just do poorer and poorer.
KIppers by 5 in the Euros.
#RUMOUR that UKIP have won seats on Kingston (London) Council. UKIP candidate says he will pass out if true.
#RUMOUR that UKIP have won seats on Kingston (London) Council. UKIP candidate says he will pass out if true.
"....Bodes well for my Euros bets, where I'm a bit stuffed if Labour come first."
So you and I are in the same boat tonite, Richard!
Don't know about you but I am already beginning to feel fairly relaxed. In fact I might even turn in now and let others sweat over the results till the wee small hours.
Nite all.
It is beginning to look good for my Euro Trifactor UKIP/Con/Lab at 16/1
Thanks Shadsy!
@Tom_Fowdy
#UKIP are possibly close to winning their first seat in #Sunderland with a mega close tie and continual recounts for the hetton ward!"
twitter.com/Tom_Fowdy/status/469607099375566850
Barnes (Sunderland) Result: LAB - 41.1% CON - 37.3% UKIP - 17.6% LDEM - 4.0%
@LadPolitics: Joey Barton on #bbcqt next week? I feel a range of special bets are called for.
Lab 48%
Con 24%
UKIP 22%
Green 3%
LD 3%
Ted Strike(r) is going to land that seat it seems on the UKIP airport.
St Michael`s Ward
on Thursday, 22 May 2014
Name of Candidate
Votes
Election of a City Councillor for
P
Vincent Gray COSTELLO
UK Independence Party (UK I P)
606
Michael DIXON
The Conservative Party Candidate
1,501
Rachel Sara FEATHERSTONE
Green Party Candidate
250
Zafer IQBAL
Labour Party Candidate
866
Andrew WOOD
Liberal Democrats
131
Of course, they might mean UKIP has finished first in Hull, or is on track to win most seats in this round. Or maybe it's just a rumour with no great foundation.
Washington Central Ward
on Thursday, 22 May 2014
Name of Candidate
Votes
Election of a City Councillor for
V
Anne GRIFFIN
Liberal Democrats
137
Marjorie MATTHEWS
The Conservative Party Candidate
343
Erland Max Howard POLDEN
UK Independence Party (UK I P)
939
Linda WILLIAMS
Labour Party Candidate
1,624
St Michael's (Sunderland) CON - 44.8% LAB - 25.8% UKIP - 18.1% GRN - 7.5% LDEM - 3.9%
I think you'll find that was a comfortable Con hold