Thank goodness. Heaven knows I thought First Class was a fantastic movie, but I was worried returning to what, from the trailers, seemed a return to the overly Wolverine focused X-men movies, might prove troublesome.
I have similar concerns for GOTG, having to introduce a whole team of unknowns, perhaps focusing too much on one or just spreading itself too thin. We shall see.
Last week I saw a new trailer for Guardians, I think it is going to be a great film.
Now the polls are closed: one thing that startled me in the Scottish Euro ballot paper, apart from the choice of Britain First, BNP and UKIP as well as Tories, was that the Tories described themselves as "Scottish Conservatives – No to independence". The unanswered question of this rather obvious dog-whistle was, independence from whom? London or Brussels?
Apart from wondering if they had perhaps got their polls mixed up, I thought it looked odd in that Euro context - as if the Tories were claiming to be a hard Europhile party. I'm not sure it made much difference, but it couldn't have helped the loss of votes to UKIP.
I arrived home at 8 pm. Dragged a reluctant Mrs out in the drizzle to vote in Acton (ukip want you to abstain). Turn out reasonable -there was a bit of a queue. She voted Lab all the way, and I surprised her by revealing I had voted LD in the Euros (Lab in the locals).
Isn't one school of thought that David M was poised to take on Brown but that Ed M talked him out of it. The rest of course is history.
The problems with that theory are (a) David Miliband is a complete wimp and (b) it does not really explain Darling's frustration and disappointment with David.
Those that didn't do something, anything to rid our country of that lunatic should hold their heads in shame.
Milton Keynes, Rugby, Daventry are excluded because boundary changes mean comparisons can't be made with 2010. I'm still going to enter today's results from those councils, just not include them in the changes columns.
What about Hart? We had an all-out election this year due to "re-districting" and a change in the number of councillors. I got 3 votes.
"...a Dutch exit poll indicated that the anti-Islam, Eurosceptic Freedom Party of Geert Wilders' - which plans to forge an alliance with France's far-right National Front - has fallen well short of its goal of topping the poll."
Milton Keynes, Rugby, Daventry are excluded because boundary changes mean comparisons can't be made with 2010. I'm still going to enter today's results from those councils, just not include them in the changes columns.
What about Hart? We had an all-out election this year due to "re-districting" and a change in the number of councillors. I got 3 votes.
Three Rivers council also has new boundaries and full elections .
RochdalePioneers, amazed someone on here lives so close to me (same Council)!
Sadly didn't check how turnout had been when I went to vote.
Are you south of the rivet? We are plagued be loons who want the likes of Thornaby and Yarm to secede from Stockton and "join Yorkshire". That we're already in Yorkshire (sadly, as a Lancastrian...) its bloody daft.
South of the rivet? Thought shipbuilding on the Tees finished years ago.
Holland "The definitive exit poll from broadcaster Nos confirms that the Liberal democratic party D66 and the Christian Democrats are set to the be the biggest Dutch parties in the European parliament.
The definitive Ipsos poll put the Christian Democrats on 15.2% and D66 on 15.6%, ahead of Geert Wilders’ anti-EU PVV, which went down from 17% to 12.2%. The ruling VVD are up from 11.4% to 12.3% in the poll."
"...a Dutch exit poll indicated that the anti-Islam, Eurosceptic Freedom Party of Geert Wilders' - which plans to forge an alliance with France's far-right National Front - has fallen well short of its goal of topping the poll."
Milton Keynes, Rugby, Daventry are excluded because boundary changes mean comparisons can't be made with 2010. I'm still going to enter today's results from those councils, just not include them in the changes columns.
What about Hart? We had an all-out election this year due to "re-districting" and a change in the number of councillors. I got 3 votes.
It was difficult deciding what to do as far as Hart and also Slough are concerned. In 2010 in Slough every ward apart from Colbrook with Poyle was contested: this time every ward is contested. I decided to leave it in. With Hart 6 wards weren't contested in 2010, this time all are. I should have left it out the comparisons, but I decided to leave it in since it's a pretty small council and it will hardly make any difference to the national shares of the vote, which is, to be honest, what I'm interested in as far as these elections are concerned. But I can still take it out if you think that's a better idea.
"...a Dutch exit poll indicated that the anti-Islam, Eurosceptic Freedom Party of Geert Wilders' - which plans to forge an alliance with France's far-right National Front - has fallen well short of its goal of topping the poll."
I thought it was established that exit polls were banned for the Euro elections
The Dutch have a splendid tradition of disregard for that sort of nonsense. There was much euromoaning about their exit polls last time and there will be this time too.
Frank, LAB at 3.4 (3.45 now btw) is not that incredible. Coral have the same price.
I suspect that LAB are going to have serious GOTV woes in parts of GB which are not also voting in council elections. Eg. Scotland.
Does any party do a GOTV operation for the Euros when there aren't simultaneous local elections? Most activists I've met who'd be willing to do GOTV activity at local or general elections are distinctly unmotivated to do likewise for the Europeans.
- "Does any party do a GOTV operation for the Euros when there aren't simultaneous local elections?"
Yes. The Scottish National Party.
Hell yes - we've had teams out all day.
David Herdson's comment - "Most activists I've met who'd be willing to do GOTV activity at local or general elections are distinctly unmotivated to do likewise for the Europeans" - is very telling. It tells us a lot about morale among ordinary Conservative activists. They are dispirited.
GOTV can make a real difference in a particular ward. Across an entire region, not much.
Not true. It got Winnie Ewing elected an MEP umpteen times (I was one of her GOTV workers). And worked a treat for her colleagues Allan Macartney and Ian Hudghton too. I was at the count when Hudghton whipped SLAB at the North East Scotland Euro by-election in 1998 (Labour finished an astonishing 3rd). The looks on the faces of the BBC journalists was a picture to behold. They were utterly horrified. I think that that was the exact moment when I fully realised that the BBC was never, and could never be, impartial. They had a side, and they backed that side in every single underhand way they possibly could. They are still at it.
But that's the point: Winnie Ewing stood in the old Euro-constituencies, which were big but still an order of magnitude smaller than those we have today. You also had someone - a candidate - to act as a focal point for the election.
And to clarify, I know plenty of Tory activists who've been working hard on election day activity today; it's just that their motivation is the council contests, not the Euros. When we've had stand-alone Euros (as we did in 2009 in W Yorks), activity was token, despite confidence being high in the party generally. As Sean says, when the ward has, say, ten thousand electors and the majority might be within a couple of hundred, GOTV makes a visible difference. When the Euro-constituency has five million electors, it's all a bit impersonal.
In NI, we have both local council elections for the new merged councils (going from 26 to 11) and, of course, the Euros.
We have also had the absolute implosion of NI's newest party, the god awfully named NI21 which started as a liberal unionist party under the auspices of two ex UUP MLAs (Basil McCrea & John McCallister). 48 hours before the elections, the two MLAs decided to have a complete separation and the party is on its knees.
Nominally the issue is one about designation in the NI Assembly, the party was designated Unionist then suddenly Basil McCrea decided it should be 'other' promptly hacking off McCallister.
This is just one mere outward symptom of the problem, which is actually Basil McCrea, who has an ego the size of a small province. The man has poor judgement and I suspect is not going to come out of this well. Believe me some serious stories about this guy.
Meanwhile the germ of an idea that had potential, that of a Unionist party for those that didn't want to wear a Sash, has been shat upon.
'although most experts believe they will win a third MEP in the Euros, it will be because Labour is losing support to UKIP rather than the SNP gaining support'
Not sure about that. I'm not entirely convinced by the 'WWC betrayed by Labour turns to UKIP' meme south of the border; it's a bit of a stretch northwards.
Milton Keynes, Rugby, Daventry are excluded because boundary changes mean comparisons can't be made with 2010. I'm still going to enter today's results from those councils, just not include them in the changes columns.
What about Hart? We had an all-out election this year due to "re-districting" and a change in the number of councillors. I got 3 votes.
It was difficult deciding what to do as far as Hart and also Slough are concerned. In 2010 in Slough every ward apart from Colbrook with Poyle was contested: this time every ward is contested. I decided to leave it in. With Hart 6 wards weren't contested in 2010, this time all are. I should have left it out the comparisons, but I decided to leave it in since it's a pretty small council and it will hardly make any difference to the national shares of the vote, which is, to be honest, what I'm interested in as far as these elections are concerned. But I can still take it out if you think that's a better idea.
It makes more difference in terms of seats than votes, so might as well be left in. Labour are nowhere, and UKIP have more chance in neighbouring Rushmoor where they already have borough councillors and a county councillor. I didn't even consider voting for the UKIP candidate as he's a carpetbagger from Yateley ;-)
In NI, we have both local council elections for the new merged councils (going from 26 to 11) and, of course, the Euros.
We have also had the absolute implosion of NI's newest party, the god awfully named NI21 which started as a liberal unionist party under the auspices of two ex UUP MLAs (Basil McCrea & John McCallister). 48 hours before the elections, the two MLAs decided to have a complete separation and the party is on its knees.
Nominally the issue is one about designation in the NI Assembly, the party was designated Unionist then suddenly Basil McCrea decided it should be 'other' promptly hacking off McCallister.
This is just one mere outward symptom of the problem, which is actually Basil McCrea, who has an ego the size of a small province. The man has poor judgement and I suspect is not going to come out of this well. Believe me some serious stories about this guy.
Meanwhile the germ of an idea that had potential, that of a Unionist party for those that didn't want to wear a Sash, has been shat upon.
Basil Mcrea seems to even more of a muppet than William Mcrea.
Just back from my day at a small rural Polling Station. Turnout was just shy of 30% to which one should add about another 10% of postal votes (assuming a 66% return rate) . So probably overall about 40%. Word is other polling stations in Mid Sussex were about the same. So overall the turnout looks to be higher than predicted.
What was really noticeable is how few young people turned up to vote compared with the locals at the same polling station in May last year. I only saw five voters who appeared to be be under 25. What the significance, if any, of that is I don't know, but it seemed so odd that I thought it worth a mention.
The Tories were very narrowly ahead of Labour in these council elections in 2010, by 32.35% to 31.98%. The general election was held on the same day of course, giving the Tories a 7.3% lead.
It'd be interesting to know what happens to the ~33 councillors who have defected to UKIP. Will they hold their seats, or will the previous party take back control.
The Tories were very narrowly ahead of Labour in these council elections in 2010, by 32.35% to 31.98%. The general election was held on the same day of course, giving the Tories a 7.3% lead.
But that didn't translate into a seat lead, Labour won ~1750 to the Tories ~1550
When I drove through Kidderminster earlier in a thunderstorm UKIP were standing on the verges with their billboards. They look like the only party that really campaigned for these elections.
My gut feel is that UKIP will do very well in the Euros but relatively poorly in the locals, compared with last year. Last year, disgruntled Tories (and there were many because of the gay marriage issue) could show their disgruntlement by voting UKIP in the locals. This time, such disgruntlement as there is (and I think it's reduced amongst Tory supporters, partly because the gay marriage issue has cooled down, and partly because the economy has hotted up) can be expressed with a UKIP vote in the Euros, and if you actually want your local council run efficiently you can still vote Conservative in the locals.
In traditionally Conservative areas where there are no locals, UKIP will do well.
Hence my overall forecast of a split Euros/locals outcome as regards the right.
I don't have so much feel for traditionally Labour-voting areas, but perhaps a similar split-ticket effect can be expected, with the Greens picking up uninspired-by-Ed votes in the Euros.
The Tories were very narrowly ahead of Labour in these council elections in 2010, by 32.35% to 31.98%. The general election was held on the same day of course, giving the Tories a 7.3% lead.
But that didn't translate into a seat lead, Labour won ~1750 to the Tories ~1550
Interesting — I haven't been paying any attention to councils seats won in 2010 so didn't notice that. Reflects the trend that happened in the general election on the same day.
Seant, you are absolutely bang on the money with that analysis. The fact that this generation of young Scots have all grown up under devolution, is I think, really now showing that it has worked as a deterrent to Independence most successfully with this age group. On a personal level, all three of my children will be able to vote in the Indy Ref in September, and none of them were old enough to vote at the last GE! It has long been 2 votes No and 1 vote Yes. But now the son that was strongly leaning Yes is having serious second thoughts about voting Yes as he has decided that what he would really like to do after Uni, is to follow his Granddad and Uncle into the UK based military Regiment they both served in. He is also dating a fellow student, a lovely lassie from London which may also be a factor.
Scottish independence: Better Together ignores the youth vote to its cost
... As a student at the University of Edinburgh, I come into contact with the independence debate almost daily, and the positivity and openness of young Yes campaigners present a stark contrast to advocates of the union. "Yes" posters and stickers are plastered across the campus, yet the blue Better Together logo is notably absent. This in a city regarded as a union stronghold. The strong presence of the Yes campaign across social media – 20,000 more followers than Better Together on Twitter if that’s anything to go by - only encourages these young supporters of independence to keep sharing their cause, loud and proud.
... A season of optimism approaches, and if Better Together merely continues to tread water, the Yes campaign will have made decisive gains come September.
And yet all the polls, and many of the campus votes, show that youth/teenage voters are at best ambivalent about Separatism, and at worst actively hostile. They see opportunities in the wider UK that would be absent in a narrow independent Scotland.
In NI, we have both local council elections for the new merged councils (going from 26 to 11) and, of course, the Euros.
We have also had the absolute implosion of NI's newest party, the god awfully named NI21 which started as a liberal unionist party under the auspices of two ex UUP MLAs (Basil McCrea & John McCallister). 48 hours before the elections, the two MLAs decided to have a complete separation and the party is on its knees.
Nominally the issue is one about designation in the NI Assembly, the party was designated Unionist then suddenly Basil McCrea decided it should be 'other' promptly hacking off McCallister.
This is just one mere outward symptom of the problem, which is actually Basil McCrea, who has an ego the size of a small province. The man has poor judgement and I suspect is not going to come out of this well. Believe me some serious stories about this guy.
Meanwhile the germ of an idea that had potential, that of a Unionist party for those that didn't want to wear a Sash, has been shat upon.
Basil Mcrea seems to even more of a muppet than William Mcrea.
Without going into detail, I know McCrea from way back. He does have that good talking, I want to break the mould stuff going on so I can see why politics fitted him. Reality is the man has mixed with some interesting types in the past, has an out of check ego and actually isn't that smart. He's a lucky man some of the past hasnt come out.
He deserves all thats coming.
PS The Singing Nun is no dozer and, in some ways, quite a nice guy.
Just back from a very hectic GOTV.Libel threats in play,people losing it,as you do at the end of an intense period of campaigning,the stress radiating from a really tremendous old-fashioned battle taking its toll.Seeing some of the candidates are fit to drop is very heartening because it is hard work winning highly competitive contests My advice to all those whose brain is about to explode is to go somewhere and lay on a beach for a week but I thank them all for renewing my faith in democracy and the democratic process. Overall,a very encouraging rehearsal and,just as a rough guess, turnout could hit 40%,a success of sorts.It's been a very busy day.
Jeremy Browne sounding like a very right-wing LD on Question Time.
Seems like a good sort most of the time does Browne, from the bits I read at any rate. I'd feel much more inclined to identify more strongly with the LDs if they had more of his type, though their 2010 voters and even their remaining base would not I suspect.
I saw that story break on a large screen TV in Tescos. David Miliband must have curled up in a ball in the corner of a darkened room somewhere sucking his thumb.
Anyone remember this point 5 years ago? James Purnell resigned as the polls closed, and the betting markets went into meltdown, convinced Brown was finished and a 2009 General election would result.
Ed Miliband has come under attack from his front bench over fears that Labour will be beaten into second place in the European elections.
Anger is growing among senior party figures who believe that a “lacklustre” campaign failed to tackle the threat from Ukip, underplayed the party’s position on immigration, and was out of touch with people on the street. Doubts were also growing over Mr Miliband’s image after a series of interviews and disastrous photographs.
One leading Labour figure told The Times: “The narrative around Ed Miliband, because it’s the truth, is that he looks weird, sounds weird, is weird.”
What position on immigration? That they criticise mass immigration in theory but don't do a damn thing in practice? I've yet to hear a single actual policy from Labour on how they are going to reduce it.
Ed Miliband has come under attack from his front bench over fears that Labour will be beaten into second place in the European elections.
Anger is growing among senior party figures who believe that a “lacklustre” campaign failed to tackle the threat from Ukip, underplayed the party’s position on immigration, and was out of touch with people on the street. Doubts were also growing over Mr Miliband’s image after a series of interviews and disastrous photographs.
One leading Labour figure told The Times: “The narrative around Ed Miliband, because it’s the truth, is that he looks weird, sounds weird, is weird.”
What position on immigration? That they criticise mass immigration in theory but don't do a damn thing in practice? I've yet to hear a single actual policy from Labour on how they are going to reduce it.
Comments
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFBKVmJGYkhwYTRFeGpVZlg2bTRIZUE&usp=drive_web#gid=0
Corporeal ta for the link.
Apart from wondering if they had perhaps got their polls mixed up, I thought it looked odd in that Euro context - as if the Tories were claiming to be a hard Europhile party. I'm not sure it made much difference, but it couldn't have helped the loss of votes to UKIP.
;-)
Those that didn't do something, anything to rid our country of that lunatic should hold their heads in shame.
France - @IfopOpinion #EP2014 poll:
FN 23.5%
UMP 22%
PS 16.5%
EELV 10%
UDI-MoDem 9.5%
FdG 8%
http://www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/clips/p006vm6j/the_league_of_gentlemen_a_local_shop_for_local_people/
"The definitive exit poll from broadcaster Nos confirms that the Liberal democratic party D66 and the Christian Democrats are set to the be the biggest Dutch parties in the European parliament.
The definitive Ipsos poll put the Christian Democrats on 15.2% and D66 on 15.6%, ahead of Geert Wilders’ anti-EU PVV, which went down from 17% to 12.2%. The ruling VVD are up from 11.4% to 12.3% in the poll."
- See more at: http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2014/05/definitive_poll_confirms_d66_a.php#sthash.MbTzhULV.dpuf
Any publication of vote counts is banned by EU regulation.
Any UK exit poll is banned by UK law (exit polls not allowed for elections prior to close of all polls).
Dutch law allows such exit polls, so they're having one.
As I understand it at least.
There was much euromoaning about their exit polls last time and there will be this time too.
And to clarify, I know plenty of Tory activists who've been working hard on election day activity today; it's just that their motivation is the council contests, not the Euros. When we've had stand-alone Euros (as we did in 2009 in W Yorks), activity was token, despite confidence being high in the party generally. As Sean says, when the ward has, say, ten thousand electors and the majority might be within a couple of hundred, GOTV makes a visible difference. When the Euro-constituency has five million electors, it's all a bit impersonal.
We have also had the absolute implosion of NI's newest party, the god awfully named NI21 which started as a liberal unionist party under the auspices of two ex UUP MLAs (Basil McCrea & John McCallister). 48 hours before the elections, the two MLAs decided to have a complete separation and the party is on its knees.
Nominally the issue is one about designation in the NI Assembly, the party was designated Unionist then suddenly Basil McCrea decided it should be 'other' promptly hacking off McCallister.
This is just one mere outward symptom of the problem, which is actually Basil McCrea, who has an ego the size of a small province. The man has poor judgement and I suspect is not going to come out of this well. Believe me some serious stories about this guy.
Meanwhile the germ of an idea that had potential, that of a Unionist party for those that didn't want to wear a Sash, has been shat upon.
*teenage boys who had a sky box in the 90s will understand the reference.
http://www.cannockchasedc.gov.uk/info/100004/council_and_democracy/1243/district_elections_may_2014
Not sure about that.
I'm not entirely convinced by the 'WWC betrayed by Labour turns to UKIP' meme south of the border; it's a bit of a stretch northwards.
http://www.lbhf.gov.uk/Directory/Council_and_Democracy/Democracy_and_Elections/Electoral_services/Useful_links/187532_Council_Election_May_2014.asp - Hammersmith and Fulham results.
Now at the count in Basingstoke. It has been a long day and, to deal plainly, I fear it will not be our best result.
twitter.com/UKELECTIONS2015/status/469591644606824448
What was really noticeable is how few young people turned up to vote compared with the locals at the same polling station in May last year. I only saw five voters who appeared to be be under 25. What the significance, if any, of that is I don't know, but it seemed so odd that I thought it worth a mention.
The Conservatives have held Basildon for ten years. Reports say it is likely that they will lose their majority tonight.
Holderness in Hull is rumoured to be seeing a surprise result from UKIP.
http://www.hertfordshiremercury.co.uk/Hoddesdon-and-Broxbourne/Elections-2014-LIVE-20140522220933.htm?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed
In traditionally Conservative areas where there are no locals, UKIP will do well.
Hence my overall forecast of a split Euros/locals outcome as regards the right.
I don't have so much feel for traditionally Labour-voting areas, but perhaps a similar split-ticket effect can be expected, with the Greens picking up uninspired-by-Ed votes in the Euros.
Salmond, Johnson, Farage - People believe in them.
Omits Clegg. Telling...
Apparently one polling station nearly ran out of slips in Hoddesdon today. Sounds like a reasonable turnout across board #mercelections"
Rob Marchant @rob_marchant 42s
Oh, sod it. I'm not staying up for this one - no-one will know anything useful till mid-tomorrow and even that's only locals. #Elections2014
A breath of fresh air , he is not!
Carlisle count looking a little messy. pic.twitter.com/SRdIbEoT2J
FIRST RESULT:
Pallion (Sunderland)
LAB WIN
FIRST RESULT: Pallion (Sunderland) LAB WIN
Pallion (Sunderland) Result: LAB - 47.8% UKIP - 30.1% CON - 14.3% GRN - 4.8% LDEM - 3.1%
St Anne's (Sunderland) Result: LAB - 48.3% UKIP - 33.2% CON - 14.1% GRN - 4.35
He deserves all thats coming.
PS The Singing Nun is no dozer and, in some ways, quite a nice guy.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dHR0LWkxX1E5d0Fqd0hDd0Vid0RHUkE&usp=drive_web#gid=0
Over the next few days, I have the locals to report on, a Lord Ashcroft 26,000 respondent marginals poll, a Euro election and a Nine Inch Nails gig.
http://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/news-live
St Anne's, Sunderland: Lab 1022, UKIP 702
Turnout:
Pallion: 30%
St Anne's: 25%
3 things I learnt today. Euro ballot paper has cost Ukip. Tory ground operation better than Labour thought. Douglas A needs a tin helmet.
St Anne's (Sunderland) Result:
LAB - 48.3%
UKIP - 33.2%
CON - 14.1%
GRN - 4.35
So UKIP getting 30+% in first two results. Very encouraging.
Lab saved by the bell.
My advice to all those whose brain is about to explode is to go somewhere and lay on a beach for a week but I thank them all for renewing my faith in democracy and the democratic process.
Overall,a very encouraging rehearsal and,just as a rough guess, turnout could hit 40%,a success of sorts.It's been a very busy day.
#RUMOURMILL
#UKIP storming it in Broxbourne
Not that I expect it to have great effect.
emily m @maitlis
Early indicators. First two wards in in Sunderland. UKIP 30 percent share of vote from nowhere. This is prime labour heartland. #vote2014
What position on immigration? That they criticise mass immigration in theory but don't do a damn thing in practice? I've yet to hear a single actual policy from Labour on how they are going to reduce it.
What position on immigration? That they criticise mass immigration in theory but don't do a damn thing in practice? I've yet to hear a single actual policy from Labour on how they are going to reduce it.
She stood as a candidate in Manchester in 2001.