politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local election night on PB: Your guide – Harry Hayfield and

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  • tonyhill
    tonyhill Posts: 3
    UKIP gain 6 seats in Hampshire so far including three from Lib Dems in Eastleigh.
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    AveryLP said:

    the real risk to UKIP is the Eurozone imploding.

    And the Eurozone imploding would give the Boy Genius an excuse for missing his fiscal targets!
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    A very disappointing trickle of results so far and presumably there are only a very few more likely to be announced in the early hours so I'm off to bed!
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    MikeL said:

    OK Rod, not criticising you - just saying as one marker it's a good one for Con.

    Quite possibly, but any single result of anything taken in isolation is virtually useless as a predictor.
  • slade
    slade Posts: 2,200
    Result of Sheffield, Fullwood
    LD 2563, Lab 1035, Con 826, UKIP 501, Green 379. (Swing is 9.0% Con to LD)
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    1 UKIP in Gloucestershire... Lydney division
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:

    the real risk to UKIP is the Eurozone imploding.

    And the Eurozone imploding would give the Boy Genius an excuse for missing his fiscal targets!
    Boy George seems to have the targets under control at the moment and also to be on the right side of expectations.

    But anyone looking at Spain will not see any organic solution coming. Especially when no one is willing to pump in the kind of money needed to keep them afloat. Add Italy and France to the list and a real crisis is brewing.

  • Garethofthevale
    Garethofthevale Posts: 503
    UKIP win in Gloucs - Tories down to 4th!

    Update - Drybrook & Lydbrook: Guyton (UKIP):824, Hogan (LABC):713, Gardiner (IND):666, Jones (CON):416, Rhodes (GP):120, Hughes (LIBDEM):74
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Essex

    57 declared. 18 to go

    So far
    Con 34 (33 Held 1 Gain 9 Lost)
    LD 9 (9 Held 2 Lost)
    Lab 7 (2 Held 5 Gained)
    UKIP 3 (3 Gained)
    Green 1 (1 Gained)
    Tendring First 1 (Gained)
    Canvey Island Ind 1 (Held)
    Residents 1 (Held)
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2013
    Rochford West is the Green gain in Essex

    Green gain Welwyn Garden City South in Herts
  • smithersjones2013
    smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    Dorset Approximate Vote Shares 34 out of 45 declarations

    Con 38.93%
    LD 20.87%
    UKIP 18.76%
    Labour 13.57%
    Green 4.48%
    Independent 3.38%

    So much for one nation Labour . 4th in Dorset.......3rd In Lincolshire
  • Garethofthevale
    Garethofthevale Posts: 503
    Have to credit Lincolnshire MP Nick Boles with a sense of humour:

    Message from #LincsCCelections is more development on greenfield sites to house all the gay married immigrant Romanians
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Can we find a safe seat for Tosca Sofia Antonia Cabello-Watson?

    Is there a Covent Garden ward?

  • smithersjones2013
    smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    Three UKIP gains in Somerset

    Chard North
    Minehead
    Yeovil Central
  • tonyhill
    tonyhill Posts: 3
    3 more UKIP gains in Hampshire. LibDems lose two seats to Tories in Winchester.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Greens 38 Con 30 UKIP 21

    UKIP let the Greens in Essex
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    A Green elected in Braintree
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    The Somerset and Eastleigh gains by UKIP are odd in Lib Dem country.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Dorset seats? Previous seats post had 28, but vote shares based on 34.
  • Garethofthevale
    Garethofthevale Posts: 503
    UKIP up to 6 now in Essex. Con should just about hold overall though. Time for bed.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Tories have made a gain in Lincolnshire from the LDs in Nettleham and Saxilby.
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    SeanT said:

    These are stunningly good results for UKIP, on a percentage basis. They are outperforming the most favourable of their polls. Remarkable.

    Prof Curtice: Little doubt #vote2013 confirming UKIP as greatest "threat to established party system... since WWII

    UKIP vote share and seat gains will have more ;lasting political impact in Berlin and Paris than it will in any UK county.

  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    50417 votes cast in North Tyneside. 24623 of them by post.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tosca Sofia's blog:

    http://toscasofia.blogspot.co.uk/
  • smithersjones2013
    smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    Hampshire State Of Play (Seats, Votes, Vote Share)

    Conservative Party 26 83089 36.33%
    Liberal Democrats 13 51274 22.42%
    UKIP 10 56857 24.86%
    Labour Party 2 21518 9.41%
    Independent 1 4691 2.05%
    The Community Campaign 1 2367 1.03%
    Green Party 0 6498 2.84%
    The Labour and Co-operative Party 0 1579 0.69%
    British National Party 0 283 0.12%
    No Party 0 210 0.09%
    Christian Party "Proclaiming Christ's Lordship" 0 191 0.08%
    The Official Monster Raving Loony Party 0 92 0.04%
    Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts 0 79 0.03%
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    AndreaParma_82 said:


    UKIP let the Greens in Essex

    That was the master strategy all along, Andrea ;)
  • smithersjones2013
    smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    Hampshire link

    http://election.hants.gov.uk/hwstate.aspx?id=175&year=2013
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013
    AndyJS said:

    Tosca Sofia's blog:

    http://toscasofia.blogspot.co.uk/

    No Oxford PPE clone here, Andrea.

    23. Went to university for a bit - they gave me a degree in Conflict, Peace and Security.
    Going to college for a bit - they'll give me a Level 2 VRQ in Motor Vehicle Maintenance.
    Qualified boat steerer. Unqualified trainer of felines.

    We need to adopt her and promote her cause!
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Andy

    I expected Tosca Sofia to be more glamorous
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    No results from Skegness yet. Might be good for UKIP, although I don't know much about the electoral history of the area...
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    AveryLP said:

    AndyJS said:

    Tosca Sofia's blog:

    http://toscasofia.blogspot.co.uk/

    No Oxford PPE clone here, Andrea.

    23. Went to university for a bit - they gave me a degree in Conflict, Peace and Security.
    Going to college for a bit - they'll give me a Level 2 VRQ in Motor Vehicle Maintenance.
    Qualified boat steerer. Unqualified trainer of felines.

    We need to promote her cause!
    Witney should be a safe seat with that name !
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    SeanT said:

    These are stunningly good results for UKIP, on a percentage basis. They are outperforming the most favourable of their polls. Remarkable.

    Prof Curtice: Little doubt #vote2013 confirming UKIP as greatest "threat to established party system... since WWII

    In votes, yes. But this is FPTP, where votes are only a distant secondary consideration.

    Encouraging, yes, but 'breaking the mould'? Nah... They're not even doing as well as the SDP...

    Anyone remember them?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    @Andrea

    She's quite good looking by my standards.
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    AveryLP said:


    We need to promote her cause!

    I'm shocked she's not one of ours!

    Clearly the Euro list (or the next euro list) is where we, as her newly self-appointed career consultants should be directing her.
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    50417 votes cast in North Tyneside. 24623 of them by post.

    So many immigrants in North Tyneside ?
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Essex

    Con 37
    Lab 9
    LD 9
    UKIP 7
    Green 1
    Ind/Residents 4

    8 to go
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013
    SeanT said:

    AveryLP said:

    The Somerset and Eastleigh gains by UKIP are odd in Lib Dem country.

    Er, you didn't notice the historic UKIP performance in the Eastleigh by-election, then?

    Derrr.
    I missed that one, Sean!

    What I was hoping to do was to entice Mark Senior out of his book of coins to help explain what is going on in terms of relative swings and local conditions.

    Early results and prima facie, it looks as if the Tories have been better at resisting UKIP in the South West than the Lib Dems.

    Validating this assumption is important as Lib Dem strength in the South and South West is one of the keys to the 2015 election.

    And I am far too thick and lazy to get to grips with the details.
  • GeoffM
    GeoffM Posts: 6,071
    AndyJS said:

    She's quite good looking by my standards.

    Agree, I've done worse too. She'll be surprised by the number of hits on her blog overnight. It looks the sort that gets one visit a month from her mum out of loyalty. We'll easily have doubled the yearly traffic stats.

  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    I don't think Labour will make 300 gains,

    But I am tired as it's 3:30 AM here. So I don't know what I am talking about
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Do somerset and Gloucestershire have a live results site?
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @SmithersJones2013

    Ed's One Nation malarkey went down well in Hampshire.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2013
    RobD

    Here's Gloucestershire
    http://glostext.gloucestershire.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=3&V=0&RPID=32414414

    Somerset
    http://www1.somerset.gov.uk/council/election/2013/party.asp
  • smithersjones2013
    smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    UKIP Figures so far

    Lincs 11
    Hants 10
    Essex 7
    Somerset 3
    Gloucs 2

    So that is 33 councillors returned
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    North Tyneside Mayor

    Labour 27,905
    Conservative 18,083
    Lib Dems 4,054

    Lab gain from Con
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    UKIP only on 2 seats in Glos and 3 in Somerset - seat performance seems to vary quite a lot so hard to judge how many total seats they will get.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Thanks. Just trying to summarise the results so far in one place... note that the changes won't be accurate until 100% are reported...

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An6GzfHRNpYQdEhrZ3V5a0VSRWNEM3dyNktCQm1RSlE&usp=sharing

    Excuse the crappy layout :p
  • slade
    slade Posts: 2,200
    Looks like NOC in Somerset. Lib Dems will be disappointed.
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    I see both the parties opposed to the bedroom tax are doing well this morning.
  • smithersjones2013
    smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    Can UKIP exceed the Thrasher and Rallings predictions by the end of the night?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Of course the average Italian is better looking than everyone in the UK apart from the way Kate Moss used to look about 20 years ago.
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:

    What I think tonight is definitely showing is that that there has been a general shift to the right in the UK electorate.

    And a splintering of the right wing vote.
    Wouldn't it be a bifurcation rather than a splintering? The latter implies more than 2 pieces
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Essex

    Con 37
    Lab 9
    LD 9
    UKIP 7
    Green 1
    Ind/Residents 4

    8 to go

    As noted here before, LD's defend their seats better than statistics would project.
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    It looks good to me.
    RobD said:

    Thanks. Just trying to summarise the results so far in one place... note that the changes won't be accurate until 100% are reported...

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An6GzfHRNpYQdEhrZ3V5a0VSRWNEM3dyNktCQm1RSlE&usp=sharing

    Excuse the crappy layout :p

  • GeoffM
    GeoffM Posts: 6,071
    smithersjones2013 said:

    Hampshire link
    http://election.hants.gov.uk/hwstate.aspx?id=175&year=2013

    Many thanks for that link. I was based in Hampshire during my short time living in the UK and I recognise some of the names of those Councillors from 20 years ago. At least a couple I remember must be in their 80's by now. A bit of a trip down memory lane - cheers!
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    BBC reports

    MP Hodge hits cyclist with car door.

    She promises she will be more careful next time
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    old_labour said:

    It looks good to me.

    RobD said:

    Thanks. Just trying to summarise the results so far in one place... note that the changes won't be accurate until 100% are reported...

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An6GzfHRNpYQdEhrZ3V5a0VSRWNEM3dyNktCQm1RSlE&usp=sharing

    Excuse the crappy layout :p

    You need a big screen (I have a 23" monitor so it all fits :p)
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    Has the 'like' option gone? There have been good postings from across the political spectrum on local election thread.
  • smithersjones2013
    smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    @John Zims
    john_zims said:

    @SmithersJones2013

    Ed's One Nation malarkey went down well in Hampshire.

    Well I've done a quick sample of the Somerset wards as well and except where Labour won the odd seat it looks as if they are down in 4th place there as well. I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of tomorrow Labour are the fourth party of the Southern counties

  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Has Somerset council got smaller? It says there are 48 declared and 7 to declare = 55, not 58 as before?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Stroud - crucial marginal seat:

    Lab 8125
    Con 8109
    LD 1760
    Grn 4543
    UKIP 2327.
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    Gloucestershire's site is the best because you can also view the results in map mode.
    GeoffM said:

    smithersjones2013 said:

    Hampshire link
    http://election.hants.gov.uk/hwstate.aspx?id=175&year=2013

    Many thanks for that link. I was based in Hampshire during my short time living in the UK and I recognise some of the names of those Councillors from 20 years ago. At least a couple I remember must be in their 80's by now. A bit of a trip down memory lane - cheers!
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    UKIP have a seat in Dorset!
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    old_labour said:

    I see both the parties opposed to the bedroom tax are doing well this morning.

    Perhaps they should get into bed together and rent the spare room.

  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    yes, the boundary commission got rid of 3 Somerset Cllrs.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Somerset = Boundary changes, 3 less seats. See BBC summary:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21828547
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    old_labour said:

    Has the 'like' option gone? There have been good postings from across the political spectrum on local election thread.

    Both the like and agree buttons have gone for me.

  • GeoffM
    GeoffM Posts: 6,071
    old_labour said:

    Has the 'like' option gone? There have been good postings from across the political spectrum on local election thread.

    When it's quiet, the devil makes work for idle typists, Mr. Labour. Bring along an election night and everybody enjoys it and remembers why we are really here!

  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    Why are the Tories getting hammered in Gloucs ?
  • smithersjones2013
    smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    Dorset Tories hold ward by two votes

    St. Leonards and St. Ives ED - Voting Complete - Turnout: 38.51% (2370 Votes between
    Conservative 1118 (47.17%)
    UKIP 1116 (47.09%)
    Labour 136 (5.74%)

    Labour tactical voting next time around?
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Stroud - Lab only need 1.1% swing to win at GE.

    Brilliant result for Con.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2013
    The new mayor of North Tyneside is already 70+ year old

    And she's no Tosca

    https://www.facebook.com/normaformayor
  • slade
    slade Posts: 2,200
    Interesting situation in Gloucestershire - Lib-Lab coalition?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    MikeL said:

    Somerset = Boundary changes, 3 less seats. See BBC summary:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21828547

    Bugger me. My change values will be inaccurate for boundary changes then. You can't complain, I slapped this together in 10 mins :p
  • smithersjones2013
    smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    Dorset
    UKIP Gain From Con Ferndown
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    old_labour said:

    Gloucestershire's site is the best because you can also view the results in map mode.

    GeoffM said:

    smithersjones2013 said:

    Hampshire link
    http://election.hants.gov.uk/hwstate.aspx?id=175&year=2013

    Many thanks for that link. I was based in Hampshire during my short time living in the UK and I recognise some of the names of those Councillors from 20 years ago. At least a couple I remember must be in their 80's by now. A bit of a trip down memory lane - cheers!
    Also Essex - http://www.akserps.com/aksessex/election/2013/console/

    And Northamptonshire http://www.northamptonshire.gov.uk/election2013/

    ooh and Lincolnshire - http://www.lincolnshire.gov.uk/local-democracy/about-your-county-councillor/elections/election-results/
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Particularly annoyed about the Dorset site - I have to add the values in each district together!!
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Rob - don't worry - you can't really amend in any way - just accept changes won't sum quite to zero. But changes are small so OK.
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    The new mayor of North Tyneside is already 70+ year old

    And she's no Tosca

    https://www.facebook.com/normaformayor

    If she does three terms she could move to Rome and apply for the Italian Presidency.

  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @RobD

    Great spread sheet.
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    Thanks for those links.
    RobD said:

    old_labour said:

    Gloucestershire's site is the best because you can also view the results in map mode.

    GeoffM said:

    smithersjones2013 said:

    Hampshire link
    http://election.hants.gov.uk/hwstate.aspx?id=175&year=2013

    Many thanks for that link. I was based in Hampshire during my short time living in the UK and I recognise some of the names of those Councillors from 20 years ago. At least a couple I remember must be in their 80's by now. A bit of a trip down memory lane - cheers!
    Also Essex - http://www.akserps.com/aksessex/election/2013/console/

    And Northamptonshire http://www.northamptonshire.gov.uk/election2013/

    ooh and Lincolnshire - http://www.lincolnshire.gov.uk/local-democracy/about-your-county-councillor/elections/election-results/
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    john_zims said:

    @RobD

    Great spread sheet.

    No prob. I wonder how hard it would be for PB to have its own election results page to best the BBC. We could have people assigned to each council to add results for each ward etc...
  • smithersjones2013
    smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    UKIP 4 more gains in Lincolnshire. Take both Skegness Wards
  • JamesKelly
    JamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    God - ITV Tyne Tees website tells its readers that the North Tyneside mayor is elected by a "PR system called supplementary vote".
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Tories need to win 7 of the 9 remaining seats in Lincolnshire to retain control.
  • smithersjones2013
    smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    UKIP already at 38 seats
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited May 2013
    I agree with this tweet

    Mark Wallace ‏@wallaceme 17m
    The BBC has completely abdicated its responsibility to deliver "public service broadcasting" tonight. #vote2013
  • smithersjones2013
    smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    Conservatives need seven of the last 8 seats in Lincolnshire to retain control of council. UKIP now on 16 seats and have taken most of the Lincolnshire East coast. Boston & Skegness Constituency must be a target in 2015.
  • Milk76
    Milk76 Posts: 1
    Somerset Council seats in the Westminster Constituency of Taunton Deane (Jeremy Browne MP)

    2013 Lib Dem 7 Con 2 Lab 1 Ind 1 (1 less seat due to boundary changes)

    2009 Lib Dem 6 Con 5 Lab 1
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    old_labour said:

    I agree with this tweet

    Mark Wallace ‏@wallaceme 17m
    The BBC has completely abdicated its responsibility to deliver "public service broadcasting" tonight. #vote2013

    PB is always the place to be for elections and breaking news/big events.

  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Can anyone access the Essex site? It's unavailable for me
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    CON hold Hampshire ;)
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2013
    Essex

    Con 41
    Lab 9
    LD 9
    UKIP 8
    Green 2
    Others 4

    1 seat (Tendring Rural East) to be reported
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    The new mayor of North Tyneside is already 70+ year old

    And she's no Tosca

    https://www.facebook.com/normaformayor

    Wayne Rooney might like her?
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Yes, I can get into Essex but it just gives each seat separately - no totals.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    It looks like the Cons will hold Hertfordshire fairly easily. They held their seats in St. Albans. They lost Borehamwood North to Labour, but held South comfortably, which Labour should have won back. I think UKIP did almost as much harm to Lab as to Con in South. Conservative 6 out of 7 in Hertsmere with UKIP second in 5.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Third recount in Tendring Rural East
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    Like.
    Charles said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    The new mayor of North Tyneside is already 70+ year old

    And she's no Tosca

    https://www.facebook.com/normaformayor

    Wayne Rooney might like her?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Essex

    Con 41
    Lab 9
    LD 9
    UKIP 8
    Green 2
    Others 4

    1 seat (Tendring Rural East) to be reported

    Thanks. You don't happen to know which councils have boundary changes. Just wanted to add a column to my sheet so the numbers make sense. From the numbers you just gave, it would suggest Essex lost 1.
  • smithersjones2013
    smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    Approximate vote shares for Dorset (all results in)

    Con 41.63%
    UKIP 24.94%
    LD 19.79%
    Lab 13.19%
    Green 3.96%
    Independent 2.43%
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Tories must win all remaining seats (5) in Lincolnshire to hold.
This discussion has been closed.

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