Seems a decent Labour result in South Shields in the face of the UKIP surge - compared with Eastleigh, it shows the relatively limited impact on Labour's voters despite what was obviously major Tory tactical voting. Khan did well to save his deposit - what was his campaign about?
Where are people getting their local election results? I'm picking them up here and on the Labour List blog. Pretty startling Labour gains from Lincs to Dorset, and apparently better than 1997 in target seat hastings, perhaps due to this interview with the MP:
Con hold Lincoln Bracebridge which is good for them. Labour hoped to gain it. Maj 2%, UKIP strong third
Perhaps but they have lost 5 other wards in Lincoln. With only one ward left to declare its now Lab 8 Con 1 with one left to declare. Don't fancy the Tory MP's chances much
There are 2 (Tory...at least usually) wards outside the Lincoln City area. They are split among 2 different divisions at county level. However, as you say, Labour should be ahead enough in the City wards. The remaining ward should be Tory. Last year it was the only one they held. So it should end Lab 8 Con 2 instead of Lab 9 Con 1 as in 2012
I think the number across the UK before tonight is about 160 but I could be slightly out. There are a few areas with a number of tough defences but I would expect a small number of net gains by the end of tomorrow.
Ken Clarke should be sacked for calling Kippers clowns. It was just the most asinine, condescending bollocks.
And it was terrible politics. Way to insult 3m people.
Time to retire, Ken.
Generally agreed about Ken Clarke. Local lefties are trying to create the impression the fragrant Ms Soubry will be inheriting Rushcliffe rather than risk losing Broxtowe. Have no idea whether it's true or not.
watching Boots 'n All, they mentioned that the Bradford Bulls had only a 12 month provisional Super League license last year, but now had a full license, but would only get half the £1.2 million league payout.
Leicestershire should be interesting as a bellwhether county - Ukip standing in what seem to be targeted wards - i.e, not mine, Loughborough East which is a fourway between Labour who will win it, LibDem, Conservative and some knobbers standing in some other wards, whose name I can't recall: Trade Union/Socialists for Boredom or whatever, a couple of hundred votes here and there from a few people in purple cord, which I doubt will make a lot of difference. Seem to be declaring tomorrow. From a betting point of view forwards, the Ukip results will be interesting... Don't know if they intend to stand in 2015 and that would throw the game open - local MP Vicki Morgan is very impressive but it wouldn't take much to dislodge her. Labour likely cnadidate looks worthy but dull and local machine these days not impressive - Morgan and co ran them off the road very effectively last go round and their incumbent was a well-liked Labour man. Re tonight: Conservatives defending - I would expect them to take a hit but for them to retain overall control. But this is an odd election...
Is this thread a wum?
1) Leicestershire is not a bellweather county. Never was and never will be.
2) Nicky Morgan is a terrible MP for Loughborough.
She failed to find a resolution to the astra zeneca site. Everytime she talks to a major business about coming to Loughborough they tell her NO. The companies that do want to come to Loughborough are turned away by the tory run council for their ridiculously high rental rates. Nicky is happen to do a photo shoot for school children or local charities but she HAS NEVER put loughborough first ahead of her party. She voted to increase tutition fees and defended the increase that has contributed to students having less money to spend on the high streets which kept many independent retailers open that have now gone bust. She defended her anti-eu vote despite being for it when she was asking for votes in 2010. She thinks a pizza express is more important than loughborough having a REAL bus station for national express and megabus to use. She says she is against the Garendon/Shepshed/Barrow/Ibstock 4 different development projects but she is happy to accept donations from the developers. She promotes mental health problems as her issue but she never discloses that she is in bed with private mental health companies that want bits of the nhs to make a profit.
She is a total scam artist. Born in Surrey and thinks Loughborough is Surrey. Well its not.
Tonight results Labour need to do well in the northern part of the county - leics nw and loughborough - they wont do anything in the south as its just to rural and they dont have the footsoldiers to get a message out. Voter turnout is going to be really low. The city/towns in the north of the county are completely apathetic about politics as nobody is listening and the opposition parties dont have money to invest in areas as they want to fight battles in other counties.
The voting system should be reformed, with postal votes being weighted at 0.5 of a polling booth vote.
Doesnt the electoral system already make it so much tougher for the Tories to win an overall majority than Labour, that would make it impossible for them to win one!
However, as you say, Labour should be ahead enough in the City wards. The remaining ward should be Tory. Last year it was the only one they held. So it should end Lab 8 Con 2 instead of Lab 9 Con 1 as in 2012
How come it was 9-1 in 2012?
All seats are up this year so surely no election in 2012?
Christine talbot - tory councillor in lincolnshire - heard at the count that she would be livid if she lost to UKIP. She survived just.
Someone should point out to christine she doesn't have a divine right to win. People like her contribute to the apathy of our politics. Where's the humility in society?
Up to 11 now in Lincs (Mablethorpe, Louth Marsh, Louth Rural, Spalding E). If this is repeated in other counties then 100 gains will be broken comfortably. Could they get 200?
Con 33% (-14.2%) UKIP 26% (+23.2%) Lab 17.60% (+4.8%) Lincoln Ind 7.40% (+1.9%) LD 7.20% (-17.1%) Ind 4.90% (+3%) Oth 3.70% (-1.5%)
Another big win for UKIP in Boston NE. Could UKIP threaten the Boston and Skegness Tory MP? The've won 4 Boston wards and have also taken 2 Spalding wards (another gain)
Definitely UKIP have a lot of support in and around Boston.
Early days but I think UKIP are certainly heading for more than the 11% that Rallings and Thrasher were predicting...
Indeed. Another staggering triumph for the incompetent fops looks all but assured. The tories should celebrate by banging on about immigration, welfare and Europe again. Farage would be gutted at that prospect.
Con 33% (-14.2%) UKIP 26% (+23.2%) Lab 17.60% (+4.8%) Lincoln Ind 7.40% (+1.9%) LD 7.20% (-17.1%) Ind 4.90% (+3%) Oth 3.70% (-1.5%)
Another big win for UKIP in Boston NE. Could UKIP threaten the Boston and Skegness Tory MP? The've won 4 Boston wards and have also taken 2 Spalding wards (another gain)
Definitely UKIP have a lot of support in and around Boston.
The voting system should be reformed, with postal votes being weighted at 0.5 of a polling booth vote.
Doesnt the electoral system already make it so much tougher for the Tories to win an overall majority than Labour, that would make it impossible for them to win one!
The Tory voter may be older, but the Labour voter is fatter and lazier.
1) Leicestershire is not a bellweather county. Never was and never will be.
2) Nicky Morgan is a terrible MP for Loughborough.
Your opinion. No idea what a wum is... Not been on here for a while as busy with interesting stuff so maybe it's a term I've missed, or a mis-print. Workers United for Marxism (Late)? I was thinking about the Loughborough constituency specifically in the next election, not from a tribal sap point of view but a betting one. Vicki Morgan outgunned Andy Reed and the clp last time round and he was a decent constituency mp although a backbench sap with support for authoritarian New Labour policies. If Ukip stand, they may well give the Labour man his chance - tonight's council elections might give a few pointers on their support generally. Personally - couldn't care less - none of these people inspire me much. Made a few quid on the last election, hope to do so again... Salut...
Up to 11 now in Lincs (Mablethorpe, Louth Marsh, Louth Rural, Spalding E). If this is repeated in other counties then 100 gains will be broken comfortably. Could they get 200?
Up to 11 now in Lincs (Mablethorpe, Louth Marsh, Louth Rural, Spalding E). If this is repeated in other counties then 100 gains will be broken comfortably. Could they get 200?
Might UKIP do much better than average in Lincs due to large number of East European migrants?
That might be the case. Have been looking at Gloucs which has none for UKIP so far although suggesting they have won in Lydney. Maybe I'll revise that forecast down to 150 gains.
What I think tonight is definitely showing is that that there has been a general shift to the right in the UK electorate.
And a splintering of the right wing vote.
Not sure that matters at the council level.
Is UKIP control of Lincolnshire going to cause the county to make a unilateral declaration of independence from the EU?
I suspect all it will mean is that more council decisions are made in the pub rather than the council chamber, to the horror of serious conservatives and the delight of the kippers.
Perhaps a Pullman car will now be introduced on Eastern lines?
[p.s. I know UKIP won't win overall contol but the point stands...]
What I think tonight is definitely showing is that that there has been a general shift to the right in the UK electorate.
And a splintering of the right wing vote.
Not sure that matters at the council level.
Is UKIP control of Lincolnshire going to cause the county to make a unilateral declaration of independence from the EU?
I suspect all it will mean is that more council decisions are made in the pub rather than the council chamber, to the horror of serious conservatives and the delight of the kippers.
Perhaps a Pullman car will now be introduced on Eastern lines?
Oh dear. So sour so soon ..Go and have a pint with Uncle Ken. He'll cheer you up!
Lab only need 6.6% swing to win it at GE. For Con to hold it in midterm is a very good result.
Rod said Lab might get 4% swing in 2015. If they can't get 6.6% now, are they really likely to get 4% in 2015?
Apples and pears. My analysis is of parliamentary by-elections only. FWIW, there is a bloke in Oxford who analyses council elections, and up to and including the 2012 results he doesn't think Labour are going to make it in 2015...
What I think tonight is definitely showing is that that there has been a general shift to the right in the UK electorate.
And a splintering of the right wing vote.
Not sure that matters at the council level.
Is UKIP control of Lincolnshire going to cause the county to make a unilateral declaration of independence from the EU?
I suspect all it will mean is that more council decisions are made in the pub rather than the council chamber, to the horror of serious conservatives and the delight of the kippers.
Perhaps a Pullman car will now be introduced on Eastern lines?
Oh dear. So sour so soon ..Go and have a pint with Uncle Ken. He'll cheer you up!
Not sour at all, Mr. 2013.
On the contrary, I am as gruntled as a pig in a field of clover.
Unless i'm missing something if Labour got 50% in South Shields and that tweet (maybe inaccurate) said they were almost there just on postal votes then the difference in their percentage of the postal votes and their percentage of the walk-in votes must be huge.
Comments
Where are people getting their local election results? I'm picking them up here and on the Labour List blog. Pretty startling Labour gains from Lincs to Dorset, and apparently better than 1997 in target seat hastings, perhaps due to this interview with the MP:
http://labourlist.org/2013/04/what-not-to-say-in-an-interview-a-quick-guide-for-mps/
3 more for UKIP in Boston Fishtoft, Boston East and Spalding South
This info is from Lincs CC Twitter.
@smithersjones
There are 2 (Tory...at least usually) wards outside the Lincoln City area. They are split among 2 different divisions at county level.
However, as you say, Labour should be ahead enough in the City wards. The remaining ward should be Tory. Last year it was the only one they held. So it should end Lab 8 Con 2 instead of Lab 9 Con 1 as in 2012
Lab gain back Letchworth North West from Con. As exepected (10% maj in 2009)
On a less contentious note, kerching! for the Paddypower Labour over 42% bets - good spot by, I think Richard N?
UKIP 675
Con 313
Ind 164
Linc Ind 156
ergo, maybe a 4% swing to Labour in 2015?
watching Boots 'n All, they mentioned that the Bradford Bulls had only a 12 month provisional Super League license last year, but now had a full license, but would only get half the £1.2 million league payout.
Why?
Council now Con 19, Labour 10, UKIP 7, Indies 4, LD 3.
Wonder if UKIP would consider a deal with Labour if it ends up NOC?
UKIP 636
Con 635
Lab 630
Why has the paradise, which is Boston, Lincolnshire, proved such fertile territory for UKIP?
Labour get back Grantham South from third place.
However, I think Labour will make less gains in Lincolns than 2009's losses as UKIP gained Boston seats that used to be Labour in the past.
1) Leicestershire is not a bellweather county. Never was and never will be.
2) Nicky Morgan is a terrible MP for Loughborough.
She failed to find a resolution to the astra zeneca site. Everytime she talks to a major business about coming to Loughborough they tell her NO. The companies that do want to come to Loughborough are turned away by the tory run council for their ridiculously high rental rates. Nicky is happen to do a photo shoot for school children or local charities but she HAS NEVER put loughborough first ahead of her party. She voted to increase tutition fees and defended the increase that has contributed to students having less money to spend on the high streets which kept many independent retailers open that have now gone bust. She defended her anti-eu vote despite being for it when she was asking for votes in 2010. She thinks a pizza express is more important than loughborough having a REAL bus station for national express and megabus to use. She says she is against the Garendon/Shepshed/Barrow/Ibstock 4 different development projects but she is happy to accept donations from the developers. She promotes mental health problems as her issue but she never discloses that she is in bed with private mental health companies that want bits of the nhs to make a profit.
She is a total scam artist. Born in Surrey and thinks Loughborough is Surrey. Well its not.
Tonight results
Labour need to do well in the northern part of the county - leics nw and loughborough - they wont do anything in the south as its just to rural and they dont have the footsoldiers to get a message out. Voter turnout is going to be really low. The city/towns in the north of the county are completely apathetic about politics as nobody is listening and the opposition parties dont have money to invest in areas as they want to fight battles in other counties.
Well, she will have more time for Morley and Outwood...maybe
All seats are up this year so surely no election in 2012?
'Pretty startling Labour gains from Lincs to Dorset'
No need for the ramping it's so transparent.
Sorry, I meant in the City Council. The Linciln City Council wards have similar boundaries of the County Divisions.
We're looking at 200+ gains aren't we?
Someone should point out to christine she doesn't have a divine right to win. People like her contribute to the apathy of our politics. Where's the humility in society?
Con 33% (-14.2%)
UKIP 26% (+23.2%)
Lab 17.60% (+4.8%)
Lincoln Ind 7.40% (+1.9%)
LD 7.20% (-17.1%)
Ind 4.90% (+3%)
Oth 3.70% (-1.5%)
Another big win for UKIP in Boston NE. Could UKIP threaten the Boston and Skegness Tory MP? The've won 4 Boston wards and have also taken 2 Spalding wards (another gain)
Definitely UKIP have a lot of support in and around Boston.
The tories should celebrate by banging on about immigration, welfare and Europe again.
Farage would be gutted at that prospect.
Amington
Sheree Peaple (Lab) - 1043
Jeremy Oates (Cons) - 842
John Mills (UKIP) - 791
Marguerite Stockdale (Lib Dems) - 60
Bolebridge
Carol Dean (Lab) - 1124
Mick Oates (Cons) - 752
Chris Booth (UKIP)- 730
Jenny Pinkett (Lib Dems) - 103
Perrycrofts
Ben Adams (Cons) - 1032
Andy Whiles (Lab) - 970
Stephen French (UKIP) - 754
Tony Harvey (Lib Dems)- 146
Eddie Jones (Green) - 100
Stonydelph
Chris Cooke (Independent) - 734
Pauline Hinks (Lab) - 707
Andrew James (Cons) - 480
Lisa Crane (Green) - 106
Penny Bennion (Lib Dems) - 39
Watling North
Brian Jenkins (Lab) - 1122
Steven Claymore (Cons) - 1102
Simon Johnson (Green) - 199
Christel Roe - 79
Watling South
Michael Greatorex (Cons) - 1414
Darryl Dean (Lab) - 1117
Roger Gwynedd Jones (Lib Dems) - 185
Wilnecote By-election (Borough election)
Joan Jenkins (Lab) - 890
Alex Farrell (Cons) - 873
Roger Gwynedd Jones (Lib Dems) - 87
http://www.thisistamworth.co.uk/LIVE-Staffordshire-County-Council-election/story-18872292-detail/story.html#ixzz2SBVIFHgv
Is this thread a wum?
1) Leicestershire is not a bellweather county. Never was and never will be.
2) Nicky Morgan is a terrible MP for Loughborough.
Your opinion. No idea what a wum is... Not been on here for a while as busy with interesting stuff so maybe it's a term I've missed, or a mis-print. Workers United for Marxism (Late)?
I was thinking about the Loughborough constituency specifically in the next election, not from a tribal sap point of view but a betting one. Vicki Morgan outgunned Andy Reed and the clp last time round and he was a decent constituency mp although a backbench sap with support for authoritarian New Labour policies. If Ukip stand, they may well give the Labour man his chance - tonight's council elections might give a few pointers on their support generally. Personally - couldn't care less - none of these people inspire me much. Made a few quid on the last election, hope to do so again... Salut...
Brian Jenkins (Lab) - 1122
Another former MP I missed earlier
Might UKIP do much better than average in Lincs due to large number of East European migrants?
This is something that SeanT has argued in a number of posts inciting much frothing from the usual lefties.
Looks like Sean has been vindicated.
They're going to fail to win the most votes in the crucial Tamworth marginal constituency.
In the borough of Tamworth they've only beaten the Tories by 461 votes.
When the rural votes are added tomorrow the Tories will certainly be ahead.
Tamworth borough votes:
Lab 6,083
Con 5,622
UKIP 2,275
Others 813
LD 533
Green 405
Tamworth is probably the weakest part of Staffordshire for UKIP so I wouldn't read too much into it.
UKIP taking down tory footsoldiers in tory safe seats preventing reinforcements into marginals for the 2015 campaign.
FOOTSOLDEIRS WIN RACES.
Lab only need 6.6% swing to win it at GE. For Con to hold it in midterm is a very good result.
Rod said Lab might get 4% swing in 2015. If they can't get 6.6% now, are they really likely to get 4% in 2015?
They polled about 27% of the vote in those 3 seats.
Is UKIP control of Lincolnshire going to cause the county to make a unilateral declaration of independence from the EU?
I suspect all it will mean is that more council decisions are made in the pub rather than the council chamber, to the horror of serious conservatives and the delight of the kippers.
Perhaps a Pullman car will now be introduced on Eastern lines?
[p.s. I know UKIP won't win overall contol but the point stands...]
MODERATED
But I suspect these elections are time out for the electorate and that the protest will pass.
Ok, I just wanted to post that name
"As Labour and UKIP make gains, the Tories have been wiped out in Basildon town."
http://labourlist.org/2013/05/county-council-elections-and-south-shields-by-election-liveblog/
Where is Scarpia when we need him?
I thought of you when I saw Tosca Sofia Antonia!
FWIW, there is a bloke in Oxford who analyses council elections, and up to and including the 2012 results he doesn't think Labour are going to make it in 2015...
But who seriously thinks UKIP wont advance on 2010 and that adds to the Tories' difficulties.
On the contrary, I am as gruntled as a pig in a field of clover.
Con 22 33% (-14.3%)
UKIP 11 27% (+24.2%)
Lab 11 17.40% (+4.9%)
Lincoln Ind 4 7.80% (+2.2%)
LD 3 6.00% (-16.7%)
Ind 5.20% (+2.4%)
Oth 3.40% (-2.8%)
When a crisis gets serious the serious politicians and parties engage and displace the outside frontrunners. A bit like what happened in NI,