UNDERWOOD-FROST, C. 42 % (717) Conservative Down -17.3% HELD PEARSON, C. 25 % (428) UK Independence Party Up +25% ROLLINGS, L.A 22.9 % (392) Liberal Democrat Down -9.5% INDIAN, J. 10.1 % (172) Labour Up +1.7% Electorate: 6168 Turnout: 1709 (27%)
I suspect I'm going to win this prediction contest, and I suspect you suspect the same.
You might be right, James. I might well have completely misjudged Labour's failure to capitalise, even in Northern seats, on government unpopularity at a time of unprecedented strain on the public finances, despite assistance from disgruntled left-leaning ex-LibDems.
If so, it's a quite remarkable development. This is South Shields!!
O'CONNOR, P 41.4 % (571) Liberal Democrat Down 31% HELD DE GAVRILAC, L. 27.4 % (378) UK Independence Party Up 27.4% HANRAHAN, J. 16.1 % (222) Labour & Co-op Up 16.1% PARRY, W.S.R 15.1 % (209) Conservative Down 12.5% Electorate: 7741 Turnout: 1380 (17%)
"If so, it's a quite remarkable development. This is South Shields!!"
Oh for heaven's sake, man. Main opposition parties do have bad by-election results - but what doesn't tend to happen is that the government party is the beneficiary. If the Tories were anywhere even vaguely close in South Shields, then your "this is astonishing!" routine might be a bit more convincing.
Hmm, much as I have no idea what to do about bus passes, some classic idiot logic from Victoria Coren from David Starkey talking about the need to look at welfare really hard. To paraphrase 'So you think cutting bas passes will solve the entire 120 billion pound mess' etc
The classic 'Your proposal does not solve the entire problem/I've found one instance of it not working therefore the entire idea of looking in that direction is pointless' argument. Good to see it's not just politicians who use that bit of pablum.
Victoria Coren's remark about "the need for better creches in Bangladesh" will have to go down as one of the most ludicrously luvvie comments ever made on QT. Starkey was right to call her up on it.
He was certainly permitted to interrupt and interject a great deal, and get second comments to get that opportunity. I think Dimbleby must have been enjoying seeing him draw the increasing ire of the panel, who had to strive to not look really pissed off.
Lincolnshire Nettleham and Saxilby Con Gain From LD
BROCKWAY, J. 43.7 % (1218) Conservative Up 9.7% GAIN THOMPSON, H. 24.4 % (680) UK Independence Party Up 24.4% WHITE, A.M 21 % (586) Liberal Democrat Down 39.5% COOPLAND, R.A 10.9 % (305) Labour Up 5.4% Electorate: 8223 Turnout: 2789 (33%)
WRAY, S 38.7 % (770) Conservative Down 33.1% HELD DAVIS, T. 37.2 % (741) UK Independence Party Up 37.2% KING, J.L 15.1 % (301) Lincolnshire Independents Up 15.1% ROSS, S.L. 7.4 % (147) Labour Down 3.1% BISNAUTHSING, T 1.6 % (32) Liberal Democrat Down 16.1% Electorate: 6924 Turnout: 1991 (28%)
I'm off, and I hope to see many more UKIP gains in the morning, so have fun everyone.
And I found myself almost enjoying Harriet Harman's opening on the NHS about no matter what facts or figures the Tories come out with about the NHS, she remembers the last time they were in control of it....and then I blanked out. Because you see Harriet, I don't remember that, and no-one, pro or con toward the Tories, tends to talk about it without being soul crushingly political, so I really have no idea what it was like so your point becomes lost on me. A good thing only older people vote in numbers, it probably played better with them.
Any remaining idiot pb-ers who underestimate Farage (neil?) should watch him on TW now.
Just got in, SeanT (I think I may be the only person in all of London to leave the pub early to watch local election coverage but I'm already reconciled to being a geek). I stand by everything I have ever posted about Farage. Spending election day in a plane flying above your constituency isnt a sign of a sharp campaigning mind.
o/t what are the odds that the poster who appeared today to ramp (down!) UKIP expectations (only 200 people at a public meeting!!) ever posts again? Was it a reincarnation of Stuart Truth?
WORTH, N. 44.8 % (979) Conservative Down -18.6% HELD FOYSTER, P.C 42 % (918) UK Independence Party Up +42% MAYHEW, D. 9.2 % (200) Labour Up +0.8% WEST, R.M.B 4 % (88) British National Party Down -12.6% Electorate: 7610 Turnout: 2185 (28%)
Any remaining idiot pb-ers who underestimate Farage (neil?) should watch him on TW now.
Just got in, SeanT (I think I may be the only person in all of London to leave the pub early to watch local election coverage but I'm already reconciled to being a geek). I stand by everything I have ever posted about Farage. Spending election day in a plane flying above your constituency isnt a sign of a sharp campaigning mind.
That doesn't mean what SeanT said is untrue - Farage could be both a bit of a crap campaigner and even organizer, but his talents like elsewhere. UKIP needs a talented workhorse behind the scenes to fully exploit those talents with the electorate.
Pathetic. Dead in any Labour area for generations. People cannot defend it even on the basis that it doesn't matter where you finish in FPTP, because the idea is at some point you can build yourself to a point to challenge for a seat, and they have to start from scratch in every heavy Labour area of the country.
Ken Clarke should be sacked for calling Kippers clowns. It was just the most asinine, condescending bollocks.
And it was terrible politics. Way to insult 3m people.
Time to retire, Ken.
Ken Clarke has a majority in his constituency of 15,000, at a time when his views are wildly out of step with what appears to be the driving force of current conservatism in this country, so why should be bother retiring? His voters still like him a lot even if his party appears to have moved on.
I suspect what you mean and would prefer is that he be retired from front line politics, which is not in his hands to decide (if they'll give you a job, why not take it?).Take it up with Cameron.
I also suspect had his asinine, condescending bollocks been directed at some other group, no-one on the right would have give two craps, and would be applauding his forthright views and vast experience right now.
But that's the damn point. His asinine abuse was aimed at the voters who are leaving the Tory party in droves - disaffected rightwingers. The Tory party, as I understand it, is not experiencing a loss in votes from homosexual europhile Notting Hill millionaires.
Clarke is personally charming, I suppose (I never quite liked him as much as some others). But he has been a perverse, disruptive force in Tory politics for two decades, a man who always elevates his own opinions, even when they are clearly wrong, and have been proven wrong, over the interests of his party.
Yes: sack him. But do it nicely.
Why? Do we really want even more politicians to be can't tell them apart, refuses to say anything about anything, always PC, Oxford PPE, lawyerly yes-man?
So Clarke is outspoken and speaks his mind? Good. He always has been and its refreshing to have someone like that rather than just yet another clone.
He should be sacked for the simple reason that comments like his - i.e. calling kippers "clowns" - are losing the next election for the Tories.
Send him to the backbenches where he can chunter away, and trot out his europhile shtick, somewhat less conspicuously. No one seeks to silence him, they just need to stop him damaging Conservative electoral prospects.
But if Clarke is already a chuntering fool, why are his comments so seriously taken as to be damaging? Because he's a minister without portfolio? We know from whenever an ex-Labour or ex-Tory minister attacks their current leadership that not being in the current governmental clique will not prevent their words being used by party opponents as if they were still in their heydey.
Oh please, you're not an idiot. Clarke's stupid "clown" remarks have now been thrown at Hague, and Cameron and every other Tory grandee. Prolonging the pain and intensifying the damage.
If he was just an old cigar-smoking pensioner on the backbenches no one would care, and his idiotic remarks would be ignored. However he remains a minister, and a perceived big beast, so his stupidities get traction.
Nah, think you are being naive.
Just look at the way David Blunkett or Charles Clarke or John Reid get thrown at the current Labour leadership.
Mischievous media mavens making their mark will disinter "Tory grandee" and "one nation Tory" Ken Clarke to be the voice of 'reasonable Conservativism' vs. the 'extremist' current leadership
Neebody knaas whatits like heer in Sheels .. what with the bedroom tax an aal the uther .... I promise I won't let you down ... Y'know aam the first wumen that's ever been elected for South Sheels ..
As for meself, I'd select Karen Allen rather than that porky social worker with the really red lipstick ...
Another near miss for UKIP in Lincolns Market Rasen Wolds
KEIMACH, B. 31.7 % (573) Conservative Down 19.1% HELD RANBY, M.J 29.5 % (534) UK Independence Party Up 29.5% GRANGER, G.E.D 19.6 % (355) Liberal Democrat Down 29.6% GOODALL, L. 11 % (199) Labour Up 11% WISEMAN, G. 8.2 % (149) Independent Up 8.2%
Lincolnshire Spalding West - Independent Gain from Con
NEWTON, A.M 36.9 % (866) Lincolnshire Independents Up 36.9% GAIN SHEFFIELD, J. 33.3 % (782) UK Independence Party Up 33.3% JOHNSON, H.R 21.5 % (506) Conservative Down 23.9% OSBORN, K.M 6.5 % (153) Labour Down 1.6% Electorate: 8488 Turnout: 2349 (27%)
o/t what are the odds that the poster who appeared today to ramp (down!) UKIP expectations (only 200 people at a public meeting!!) ever posts again? Was it a reincarnation of Stuart Truth?
Now, now Neil. I hope you realise that Seth O Logue's hilarious Romney ramping was second only to stuarttruth for comedy value. Good to see he's turned over a new leaf with no more incompetent attempts at expectations management.
RENSHAW, J. 46.6 % (964) Labour Up 11.1% GAIN WILLIAMS, A. 24.5 % (506) Conservative Down 16.6% WHITE, L.S 22.6 % (467) UK Independence Party Up 22.6% THOMAS, E.C 4 % (82) Liberal Democrat Down 19.3% WOODHALL, E.J 2.3 % (48) Trade Unionists & Socialist Against Cuts Up 2.3% Electorate: 7703 Turnout: 2067 (26%)
MURRAY, N 40.5 % (628) Labour Up 16% GAIN RIDDICK, M 27.3 % (424) Conservative Down 15.8% SMITH, M.D 23.2 % (360) UK Independence Party Up 23.2% HARDING-PRICE, D 6.8 % (106) Liberal Democrat Down 12.2% MUMBY, S. 2.2 % (34) Trade Unionists & Socialist Against Cuts Up 2.2% Electorate: 6764 Turnout: 1552 (22%)
RENSHAW, R.A 44.3 % (634) Labour Up 10% GAIN BARHAM, M. 23.2 % (332) Conservative Down 15.8% WARDE, E.E 20.4 % (292) UK Independence Party Up 20.4% HARDING-PRICE, C.M 6.7 % (96) Liberal Democrat Down 20% PARKER, N. 5.3 % (76) Trade Unionists & Socialist Against Cuts Up 5.3% Electorate: 6346 Turnout: 1430 (22%)
Leicestershire should be interesting as a bellwhether county - Ukip standing in what seem to be targeted wards - i.e, not mine, Loughborough East which is a fourway between Labour who will win it, LibDem, Conservative and some knobbers standing in some other wards, whose name I can't recall: Trade Union/Socialists for Boredom or whatever, a couple of hundred votes here and there from a few people in purple cord, which I doubt will make a lot of difference. Seem to be declaring tomorrow. From a betting point of view forwards, the Ukip results will be interesting... Don't know if they intend to stand in 2015 and that would throw the game open - local MP Vicki Morgan is very impressive but it wouldn't take much to dislodge her. Labour likely cnadidate looks worthy but dull and local machine these days not impressive - Morgan and co ran them off the road very effectively last go round and their incumbent was a well-liked Labour man. Re tonight: Conservatives defending - I would expect them to take a hit but for them to retain overall control. But this is an odd election...
Yes, this is an appalling result for Labour. We have a Tory-led government delivering an age of austerity, the only other Leftist party is also in government and Labour get their worst ever result in their spiritual home. Labour should have been notching up 75% minimum at this stage. Miliband is lucky UKIP were about to get the disaffected Labour vote - otherwise the Tories could have been snapping at Labour's heels!
At least Clegg can hold his head high and placate the nervous lib dem activists and MPs by proudly proclaiming "We beat the monster raving loony candidate!" Stirring stuff indeed.
RANSOME, F.E.E 45.8 % (826) UK Independence Party Up 20.6% GAIN BEDFORD, P 40.4 % (730) Conservative Down 14.6% GLEESON, P.M 13.8 % (249) Labour Up 4.1% Electorate: 5796 Turnout: 1805 (31%)
Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage 66% turnout in South Shields is postal voting. It is a total disgrace: postal votes must be scrapped. Despite this handicap @UKIP has gone from 0% to 24%
And in other news, Jeffrey Archer could still be Prime Minister one day.
Must you ignore the sage advice of Seth O Logue? As he would be first to tell you (his humble and self-effacing demeanor prevents it) Seth thinks Andrew Lansley could still be Prime Minister one day.
While that is true, past performances have not been that different:
Green vote share in 1989 Euros - 15% (3rd place in a FPTP election) UKIP vote share in 2009 Euros - 16.5% (2nd place in a PR election)
My best guess (but it's difficult to tell and this stage so I could well be wrong) is that the Greens will finish the night / tomorrow with more councillors across the UK than UKIP.
Comments
A super terrible Lab result in 2009 or a terrible Con one today?
UNDERWOOD-FROST, C. 42 % (717)
Conservative Down -17.3% HELD
PEARSON, C. 25 % (428)
UK Independence Party Up +25%
ROLLINGS, L.A 22.9 % (392)
Liberal Democrat Down -9.5%
INDIAN, J. 10.1 % (172)
Labour Up +1.7%
Electorate: 6168
Turnout: 1709 (27%)
http://www.lincolnshire.gov.uk/ElectionsResultsDetail.aspx
Con 39.4 UKIP 34.6
If so, it's a quite remarkable development. This is South Shields!!
Labour believe 50% for them and 26 for UKIP
"Mark: Further to my last update, looks like the Lib Dems will be on 2% in South Shields – losing their deposit…"
O'CONNOR, P 41.4 % (571)
Liberal Democrat Down 31% HELD
DE GAVRILAC, L. 27.4 % (378)
UK Independence Party Up 27.4%
HANRAHAN, J. 16.1 % (222)
Labour & Co-op Up 16.1%
PARRY, W.S.R 15.1 % (209)
Conservative Down 12.5%
Electorate: 7741
Turnout: 1380 (17%)
Oh for heaven's sake, man. Main opposition parties do have bad by-election results - but what doesn't tend to happen is that the government party is the beneficiary. If the Tories were anywhere even vaguely close in South Shields, then your "this is astonishing!" routine might be a bit more convincing.
http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=count+von+count&hl=en&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=yPGCUcrqBeqG0AW764GwAg&ved=0CDoQsAQ&biw=1366&bih=538
Nettleham and Saxilby Con Gain From LD
BROCKWAY, J. 43.7 % (1218)
Conservative Up 9.7% GAIN
THOMPSON, H. 24.4 % (680)
UK Independence Party Up 24.4%
WHITE, A.M 21 % (586)
Liberal Democrat Down 39.5%
COOPLAND, R.A 10.9 % (305)
Labour Up 5.4%
Electorate: 8223
Turnout: 2789 (33%)
But since they won 72% last time it didn't stop them winning again.
Con Just Hold From UKIP
WRAY, S 38.7 % (770)
Conservative Down 33.1% HELD
DAVIS, T. 37.2 % (741)
UK Independence Party Up 37.2%
KING, J.L 15.1 % (301)
Lincolnshire Independents Up 15.1%
ROSS, S.L. 7.4 % (147)
Labour Down 3.1%
BISNAUTHSING, T 1.6 % (32)
Liberal Democrat Down 16.1%
Electorate: 6924
Turnout: 1991 (28%)
Lodmoor LD hold
And I found myself almost enjoying Harriet Harman's opening on the NHS about no matter what facts or figures the Tories come out with about the NHS, she remembers the last time they were in control of it....and then I blanked out. Because you see Harriet, I don't remember that, and no-one, pro or con toward the Tories, tends to talk about it without being soul crushingly political, so I really have no idea what it was like so your point becomes lost on me. A good thing only older people vote in numbers, it probably played better with them.
https://twitter.com/BBCRichardMoss/status/330097783774265345/photo/1
Con 33% (-10.4%)
UKIP 20.2% (+17.6%)
Lab 19.1% (+7.8%)
LD 15.3% (-18.4%)
Other 12.2% (+3.2%)
WORTH, N. 44.8 % (979)
Conservative Down -18.6% HELD
FOYSTER, P.C 42 % (918)
UK Independence Party Up +42%
MAYHEW, D. 9.2 % (200)
Labour Up +0.8%
WEST, R.M.B 4 % (88)
British National Party Down -12.6%
Electorate: 7610
Turnout: 2185 (28%)
To be fair, at least FPTP is the one antiquated thing about Britain that UKIP actually wants to change.
Lab 501 UKIP 475 LD 400 Con 379 Green 241
UKIP 5,988
Con 2,857
Khan 1,331
Ind socialist 750
BNP 711
LD 352
Loony 197
Ind 57
Just look at the way David Blunkett or Charles Clarke or John Reid get thrown at the current Labour leadership.
Mischievous media mavens making their mark will disinter "Tory grandee" and "one nation Tory" Ken Clarke to be the voice of 'reasonable Conservativism' vs. the 'extremist' current leadership
Is that in Dorset South - could we see a Lib Dem collapse and strong UKIP vote hand that constituency back to Labour?
Oh dear! Oh dear!
Oh dear! Oh dear! Oh dear!
UKIP 24.2
Con 11.5
Khan 5.3
Soc 3
BNP 2.8
LD 1.7
Loony 0.8
Ind 0.2
As for meself, I'd select Karen Allen rather than that porky social worker with the really red lipstick ...
Lab 50.51%
UKIP 24.21%
Con 11.55%
Ind 5.38%
Ind socialist 3.03%
BNP 2.87%
LD 1.42%
Loony 0.80%
Ind 0.23%
I was wrong LD 7th
Saved deposti for Khan.
*puts on Canadian accent*
It's another terrrr-ible night for the Conservatives.
Market Rasen Wolds
KEIMACH, B. 31.7 % (573)
Conservative Down 19.1% HELD
RANBY, M.J 29.5 % (534)
UK Independence Party Up 29.5%
GRANGER, G.E.D 19.6 % (355)
Liberal Democrat Down 29.6%
GOODALL, L. 11 % (199)
Labour Up 11%
WISEMAN, G. 8.2 % (149)
Independent Up 8.2%
That's how I felt when the Pope was elected.
-----------------
2013 50.5%
-----------------
2010 52.0%
1964 55.1%
1951 56.0%
1974 56.4%
1950 56.5%
1979 57.1%
1987 57.9%
1959 58.0%
1945 59.4%
1955 59.6%
1992 59.8%
1970 60.2%
2005 60.5%
2001 63.2%
1966 64.7%
1997 71.4%
A disastrous performance by a disastrous candidate.
Second worse performance by Labour since WWII.
The 1.4% for the LDs is one of the lowest for a major party on record, and their lowest share in a by-election since 1948.
This time in Spalding West
Ind gain from Con who droped to third
Lab 460 UKIP 418 Ind 356 Con 222 LD 138 Green 64
2010 = 52.0%
NEWTON, A.M 36.9 % (866)
Lincolnshire Independents Up 36.9% GAIN
SHEFFIELD, J. 33.3 % (782)
UK Independence Party Up 33.3%
JOHNSON, H.R 21.5 % (506)
Conservative Down 23.9%
OSBORN, K.M 6.5 % (153)
Labour Down 1.6%
Electorate: 8488
Turnout: 2349 (27%)
Lab 40.5% + 16
Con 27.3 -15.8
UKIP 23.2 from nowhere
LD 6.8 -12.8
TUSC 2.2
RENSHAW, J. 46.6 % (964)
Labour Up 11.1% GAIN
WILLIAMS, A. 24.5 % (506)
Conservative Down 16.6%
WHITE, L.S 22.6 % (467)
UK Independence Party Up 22.6%
THOMAS, E.C 4 % (82)
Liberal Democrat Down 19.3%
WOODHALL, E.J 2.3 % (48)
Trade Unionists & Socialist Against Cuts Up 2.3%
Electorate: 7703
Turnout: 2067 (26%)
Now corrected.
MURRAY, N 40.5 % (628)
Labour Up 16% GAIN
RIDDICK, M 27.3 % (424)
Conservative Down 15.8%
SMITH, M.D 23.2 % (360)
UK Independence Party Up 23.2%
HARDING-PRICE, D 6.8 % (106)
Liberal Democrat Down 12.2%
MUMBY, S. 2.2 % (34)
Trade Unionists & Socialist Against Cuts Up 2.2%
Electorate: 6764
Turnout: 1552 (22%)
I would have been inclined to agree, save for the fact that the Labour vote is down.
RENSHAW, R.A 44.3 % (634)
Labour Up 10% GAIN
BARHAM, M. 23.2 % (332)
Conservative Down 15.8%
WARDE, E.E 20.4 % (292)
UK Independence Party Up 20.4%
HARDING-PRICE, C.M 6.7 % (96)
Liberal Democrat Down 20%
PARKER, N. 5.3 % (76)
Trade Unionists & Socialist Against Cuts Up 5.3%
Electorate: 6346
Turnout: 1430 (22%)
or just
LD votes to Ukip
or
just confused
And in other news, Jeffrey Archer could still be Prime Minister one day.
RANSOME, F.E.E 45.8 % (826)
UK Independence Party Up 20.6% GAIN
BEDFORD, P 40.4 % (730)
Conservative Down 14.6%
GLEESON, P.M 13.8 % (249)
Labour Up 4.1%
Electorate: 5796
Turnout: 1805 (31%)
66% turnout in South Shields is postal voting. It is a total disgrace: postal votes must be scrapped.
Despite this handicap @UKIP has gone from 0% to 24%
It is a different matter nationally of course.
Old Stevenage
Broadwater
St Nicholas
gained by Lab in Herts. All exepected gains.
Green vote share in 1989 Euros - 15% (3rd place in a FPTP election)
UKIP vote share in 2009 Euros - 16.5% (2nd place in a PR election)
My best guess (but it's difficult to tell and this stage so I could well be wrong) is that the Greens will finish the night / tomorrow with more councillors across the UK than UKIP.
UK Independence Party Up 20.6% GAIN'
Is that the guy's name? No, Ken Clarke had no case at all.