Are there any projections after the initial flurry of results of how many seats UKIP will gain in total, and in particular is this likely to be more or less more or less than 100 seats?
Hampshire with a handful of wards to declare/ Conservatives hold council (seats, votes, vote share)
Conservative Party 41 116417 37.49% Liberal Democrats 16 69413 22.35% UKIP 10 76386 24.60% Labour Party 3 29192 9.40% Independent 1 4691 1.51% The Community Campaign 1 2367 0.76% Green Party 0 9247 2.98% The Labour and Co-operative Party 0 1952 0.63% British National Party 0 283 0.09% No Party 0 210 0.07% Christian Party "Proclaiming Christ's Lordship" 0 191 0.06% Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts 0 117 0.04% The Official Monster Raving Loony Party 0 92 0.03%
Another observation: for a while people have been saying UKIP need an electoral heartland (like the Libs in the southwest) from which they can build, and expand, into other parts of the country.
Seems to me we might be seeing the beginnings of that: UKIP's heartland is eastern England, especially Essex and Lincolnshire.
Intriguingly, this was the heartland of the Cromwellian revolution... and the Peasants' Revolt.
It's also where a lot of the American settlers came from.
Have UKIP already hits the Rallings & Thrasher projection?
........... and in Herts where they appear to have won a great big fat zero. So there are huge disparities in UKIP's strike rate - this presumably reflects in large part the effectiveness or otherwise of their local organisation.
Mike L, without a doubt UKIP is taking the votes of people who voted Labour in 2005. The Tories barely won Borehamwood South in 2005, but held it easily today.
Are there any projections after the initial flurry of results of how many seats UKIP will gain in total, and in particular is this likely to be more or less more or less than 100 seats?
I'm tired and emotional, but haven't UKIP already gained about 40 seats, with about 25%+ of the vote?
If my squiffy addled brain is working right, the majority of counties are reporting tomorrow, so UKIP woud have to do REALLY badly from now on, not to get over the 100 seat mark.
Or maybe I am missing summat?
That would seem to be the case, unless we have already seen their really big gains - although IIRC UKIP are also expected to do well in the East Midlands, which ties in with their success in Lincs.
The 2005 locals were on GE turnout though. Labour voters are lazy but they are supposed to be less lazy midterm while in opposition (and Tory voters should stay at home more). It may depend on the area though. Anyway, it doesn't look good for Labour so far.
Mike L, without a doubt UKIP is taking the votes of people who voted Labour in 2005. The Tories barely won Borehamwood South in 2005, but held it easily today.
With the lack lustre performance of Miliband's Labour party and the retreat by the Lib Dems under insurgent attack, it will probably be fair to name UKIP as the Official Opposition Party as of tomorrow morning.
Labour seem to have so little fight left in them that I expect they'll be relieved to hand over this laurel to Farage and his party without protest.
Apparently there are NO UKIP candidates in the remaining Lincs seats. So the Tories win.
According to Twitter.
Other rumours say UKIP candidates are winning, or nearly winning, in seats where they didn't even bother to campaign, where they never canvassed, where the candidate is on holiday!
An amazing surge.
Not according to the official website. Lincolnshire has a strong independent grouping (8 now) as well and they have picked up another seat. With 4 seats remaining the Tories can only now get 38 out of the 77 seats. Lincolnshire has gone to NOC with UKIP as the second largest party.
Looking at East Sussex only Eastbourne and Hastings have been called yet.
Here are the vote shares for Hastings 9 wards
Lab 42.58% Con 25.22% UKIP 22.85% LD 4.26% Green 5.09%
The Tories have a majority of just under 2,000 in the Hastings and Rye Parliamentary constituency.
These initial results don't look too promising for UKIP in East Sussex and the Greens will surely be disappointed with only gaining 5% of the vote - that wouldn't seem to augur well in terms of their chances of retaining Brighton Pavilion ..... there could be a betting opportunity there where iirc Labour are currently second favourites behind the Greens, but DYOR.
The one Lincolnshire result to come, Deeping St James, is a seat where Labour have a well-known candidate who has been elected before so maybe the Tories will lose that as well.
Other rumours say UKIP candidates are winning, or nearly winning, in seats where they didn't even bother to campaign, where they never canvassed, where the candidate is on holiday!
What sort of insane idiot would go on holiday when there's an election on? Dim thick nincompoops might, but anybody who is even remotely anoraky or psephological like us normal people wouldn't even consider such a thing...
The one Lincolnshire result to come, Deeping St James, is a seat where Labour have a well-known candidate who has been elected before so maybe the Tories will lose that as well.
Deeping St James is in and its a Lab Gain. It's Market and West Deeping that isn't in according to the main site..
Pretty meaningless without the results from Lincs, which is the big story of the night! So far it looks like UKIP have won around 50 seats and appear very likely to smash through the 100 net gains level.
Later today, I think one should expect to see strong results for UKIP in Devon, Staffordshire, Kent, Norfolk, Suffolk, and Cambridgeshire.
The big unknown is whether they can do well enough in places like Derbyshire and Lancashire to prevent Labour from winning overall control. They did get big votes, however, in by-elections in Leeds and Sheffield.
Pretty meaningless without the results from Lincs, which is the big story of the night! So far it looks like UKIP have won around 50 seats and appear very likely to smash through the 100 net gains level.
Indeed the quality of the news coverage all round (internet and all) this time is pretty appalling. I'm sure it wasn't anywhere near this bad in 2009?
I reckoned that UKIP have hit 40 seats including the Lincolnshire ones (the others must be independents / greens etc ). Currently they have won more seats than Labour.
Pretty meaningless without the results from Lincs, which is the big story of the night! So far it looks like UKIP have won around 50 seats and appear very likely to smash through the 100 net gains level.
Indeed the quality of the news coverage all round (internet and all) this time is pretty appalling. I'm sure it wasn't anywhere near this bad in 2009?
I reckoned that UKIP have hit 40 seats including the Lincolnshire ones (the others must be independents / greens etc ). Currently they have won more seats than Labour.
In 2009 the election coverage was much better because we had the Euro elections as well and so the BBC were running a proper election programme.
Pretty meaningless without the results from Lincs, which is the big story of the night! So far it looks like UKIP have won around 50 seats and appear very likely to smash through the 100 net gains level.
Indeed the quality of the news coverage all round (internet and all) this time is pretty appalling. I'm sure it wasn't anywhere near this bad in 2009?
I reckoned that UKIP have hit 40 seats including the Lincolnshire ones (the others must be independents / greens etc ). Currently they have won more seats than Labour.
In 2009 the election coverage was much better because we had the Euro elections as well and so the BBC were running a proper election programme.
Of course I forgot about that. Its late! Still I think this is a pretty poor show all round.
Pretty meaningless without the results from Lincs, which is the big story of the night! So far it looks like UKIP have won around 50 seats and appear very likely to smash through the 100 net gains level.
Indeed the quality of the news coverage all round (internet and all) this time is pretty appalling. I'm sure it wasn't anywhere near this bad in 2009?
I reckoned that UKIP have hit 40 seats including the Lincolnshire ones (the others must be independents / greens etc ). Currently they have won more seats than Labour.
In 2009 the election coverage was much better because we had the Euro elections as well and so the BBC were running a proper election programme.
Of course I forgot about that. Its late! Still I think this is a pretty poor show all round.
At the very least the BBC should be running a comprehensive results service on Radio 4 or Radio 5. It's disgraceful that they aren't especially when one considers their huge output of rubbish/meaningless programmes.
Pretty meaningless without the results from Lincs, which is the big story of the night! So far it looks like UKIP have won around 50 seats and appear very likely to smash through the 100 net gains level.
Indeed the quality of the news coverage all round (internet and all) this time is pretty appalling. I'm sure it wasn't anywhere near this bad in 2009?
I reckoned that UKIP have hit 40 seats including the Lincolnshire ones (the others must be independents / greens etc ). Currently they have won more seats than Labour.
In 2009 the election coverage was much better because we had the Euro elections as well and so the BBC were running a proper election programme.
Of course I forgot about that. Its late! Still I think this is a pretty poor show all round.
At the very least the BBC should be running a comprehensive results service on Radio 4 or Radio 5. It's disgraceful that they aren't especially when one considers their huge output of rubbish/meaningless programmes.
I particularly enjoy the fact that our elections have immediate effect, unlike in America where it is 2 months(!) between election and the new administration coming in. Some of my American friends were quite shocked to hear that a defeated PM gets chucked out of office the following morning!
UKIP polled 24.4% in Lincolnshire but they didn't contest 16 of the 77 divisions.
They actually polled 30.7% in the seats they were contesting: 39,380 votes out of 128,329.
I presume that when Rallings & Thrasher make their national projection they take into account the fact that parties don't contest every seat.
If this is correct then the 30.7% figure is more important than the 24.4% percentage in terms of the national projection, (of course taking into account the fact that Lincolnshire is one of UKIP's best areas.)
Could be a similar story in the locals - UKIP make the gains Labour fail to as the Lib Dems get murdered....the big two overshadowed by triumph and disaster for UKIP and the Lib Dems
I think you missed my point, which is to show how similar the Labour retention level was in the two constituencies.
In other words, if we have another by-election in the north-east soon, and Labour polled 20,000 votes there in the general election, it would probably indicate they were on course for 13,200 votes.
It wasn't a political point I was making, but a psephological one. You're seeing spin where none existed.
When BBC say "after 7 councils" they mean result of 7 councils is in (ie who controls). But they don't input councillor numbers until all seats are declared. So councillor numbers are actually after 6 councils.
Comments
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An6GzfHRNpYQdEhrZ3V5a0VSRWNEM3dyNktCQm1RSlE&usp=sharing
If there is a council that is reporting that I'm obviously missing, let me know.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21828547
UKIP: 1,077
Con: 1,007
Lab: 258
Ind: 153
Ind: 108
http://www.lincolnshire.gov.uk/ElectionsResultsDetail.aspx
Essex
2005 13 seats
2009 1
2013 9
Dorset
4
0
5
Somerset (boundary changes)
4
0
3 so far
Hampshire
4
1
3 so far
East Sussex
5
4
7 so far
Gloucestershire (boundary changes, -13 seat overall)
12
4
9 so far
Hertfordshire
16
3
12 so far
Lincolnshire
19
4
11 so far
Conservative Party 41 116417 37.49%
Liberal Democrats 16 69413 22.35%
UKIP 10 76386 24.60%
Labour Party 3 29192 9.40%
Independent 1 4691 1.51%
The Community Campaign 1 2367 0.76%
Green Party 0 9247 2.98%
The Labour and Co-operative Party 0 1952 0.63%
British National Party 0 283 0.09%
No Party 0 210 0.07%
Christian Party "Proclaiming Christ's Lordship" 0 191 0.06%
Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts 0 117 0.04%
The Official Monster Raving Loony Party 0 92 0.03%
Essex is still at 75. There's confusion on the Council Website because they say 74 declared but it adds up to 73
Boundary changes in Gloucester, Somerset, Staffordshire, Cumbria, Derbyshire, Oxfordshire, Surrey and Buckinghamshire
Lincs 16
Hampshire 10
Essex 8
Somerset 3
Gloucester 2
Dorset 1
Total 40
Have UKIP already hits the Rallings & Thrasher projection?
UKIP 1,112
Con 1,097
Lab 298
I wonder if UKIP could become the largest party on any council.
Bourne Castle
Deeping St James
Market & West Deeping
Stamford N
Stamford W
Good night....
Lab led popular vote by only 3% in 2005 GE. To do worse than that today would be a disastrous result.
Is UKIP harming Lab more than Con?
Con 54,608 (35.8%)
UKIP 39,289 (25.8%)
Lab 28,126 (18.4%)
Linc Inds 15,017 (9.8%)
LD 6,649 (4.4%)
BNP 435 (0.3%)
TUSC 323 (0.2%)
Others/Inds 8,124 (5.3%)
Con win 45 seats, down only 6.
Labour voters are lazy but they are supposed to be less lazy midterm while in opposition (and Tory voters should stay at home more).
It may depend on the area though. Anyway, it doesn't look good for Labour so far.
And with this, I really go now.
The Tories have just lost Bourne Castle to the Lincolnshire Independents by 77 votes.
Unless I am very much mistaken I think that means UKIP will be striking a deal with the Tories to run Lincolnshire tomorrow.
Labour seem to have so little fight left in them that I expect they'll be relieved to hand over this laurel to Farage and his party without protest.
http://www.lincolnshire.gov.uk/ElectionsResultsHome.aspx
That said the Tories can choose whoever they like to form a coalition with as they only need another one seat to form the council.
Con 573
UKIP 534
LD 355
Lab 199
Ind 149
Here are the vote shares for Hastings 9 wards
Lab 42.58%
Con 25.22%
UKIP 22.85%
LD 4.26%
Green 5.09%
The Tories have a majority of just under 2,000 in the Hastings and Rye Parliamentary constituency.
Eh .... isn't Essex also?
The 2009 result was:
Con 846
LD 596
Green 464
Candidates this time: Con, Lab, LD, Green.
At the moment I have:
Dorset
East Sussex
Essex
Gloucestershire
Hampshire
Hertfordshire
Lincolnshire
Somerset
And I think Northamptonshire is counting tonight, although no update on their website as of yet.
In Staffordshire, Cannock Chase, Tamworth and most of South Staffs have counted tonight.
So far I can't get hold of the detailed Cannock Chase results which is frustrating.
Con -42
Lab +22
LD -14
Oth +34
http://news.sky.com/story/1086321/county-council-elections-first-results-in
2013 seats so far: Con 247, Lab 60 - ratio 4.1 : 1
Obviously very crude at this stage but Lab appear to be making pretty minimal progress.
Yes, that was me.
Bad result for Labour in Tamworth, one of the seats they need for a decent majority.
I think UKIP will have a slightly disappointing election in the south but much better in the Midlands, North and East Anglia.
Conservative 43 82441 39.8 -6.2
Green 0 8748 4.2 -2.9
Labour 12 44760 21.6 +7.7
Liberal Democrat 10 28701 13.9 -13.2
Other 0 41556 20.1 +15.1
Lab 862
Con 511
Green 136
LD 91
It seems seems silly lumping in UKIP with 'Ratepayers' and the like.
Conservative 35 Seats -26
UK Independence Party 16 Seats +16
Labour 10 Seats +6
Lincolnshire Independents 8 Seats +4
Liberal Democrat 3 Seats -2
Independent 2 Seats +1
The big unknown is whether they can do well enough in places like Derbyshire and Lancashire to prevent Labour from winning overall control. They did get big votes, however, in by-elections in Leeds and Sheffield.
I reckoned that UKIP have hit 40 seats including the Lincolnshire ones (the others must be independents / greens etc ). Currently they have won more seats than Labour.
Con 165
Lab 30
LD 70
UKIP 26
Green 3
Others 12
Con -42
Lab +22
LD -13
UKIP +26
Green +2
Others +5
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21240025
Just heard that Market and West Deeping are recounting. It’s 04:32am :-/"
https://twitter.com/search?q=market and west deeping&src=typd
2009 result, Market & West Deeping:
Con 1,421 (58.7%)
Green 474 (19.6%)
Ind 286 (11.8%)
LD 238 (9.8%)
Candidates this time: Con, Lab, LD, Lincolnshire Independent.
Ciao!
Even on Lincolnshire, they should be able to form an administration quite easily.
East Sussex looks as though it'll be lost, however.
C 36
Lab 12
Lib 3
UKIP 16
IND 10
Con 868
Linc Inds 851
Lab 205
LD 30
Clear Labour not making up even their 2009 losses in councils declared so far: Essex, Lincolnshire, Somerset, Hertforshire all down on 2005.
Con 58,119 (36.1%)
UKIP 39,380 (24.4%)
Lab 29,919 (18.6%)
Linc Inds 16,816 (10.4%)
LD 7,082 (4.4%)
Others 9,793 (6.1%)
Electorate: 551,106
Total votes: 161,109
Turnout: 29.2%
Seats:
Con 36
UKIP 16
Lab 12
Linc Inds 8
LD 3
Ind 2
Con short by 3 of majority.
Change in share of vote:
Con -10.5%
UKIP +21.2%
Lab +6.0%
LD -14.6%
Linc Inds +1.3%
Ind -0.3%
Others -3.2%
Change in seats:
Con -25
UKIP +16
Lab +6
LD -2
Linc Ind +4
Others +1
They actually polled 30.7% in the seats they were contesting: 39,380 votes out of 128,329.
I presume that when Rallings & Thrasher make their national projection they take into account the fact that parties don't contest every seat.
If this is correct then the 30.7% figure is more important than the 24.4% percentage in terms of the national projection, (of course taking into account the fact that Lincolnshire is one of UKIP's best areas.)
eg in Lincs: Con 36, down 24.
Con -66
LD -15
Lab +30
UKIP +42
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21240025
'UKIP joy and Lib Dem woe overshadow Labour success in South Shields by-election'
http://www.itv.com/news/2013-05-03/ukip-joy-and-lib-dem-woe-overshadow-labour-success-in-south-shields-by-election/
Could be a similar story in the locals - UKIP make the gains Labour fail to as the Lib Dems get murdered....the big two overshadowed by triumph and disaster for UKIP and the Lib Dems
2010 GE: 15,351
2012 by-election: 10,201
Retention level: 66.45%
South Shields, Labour vote:
2010 GE: 18,995
2013 by-election: 12,493
Retention level: 65.77%
"Back UKIP at Evens to Take 50 Seats"
http://order-order.com/2013/04/30/back-ukip-at-evens-to-take-50-seats/
They've already won 42 seats...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21240025
Councillors:
Con 201
LD 73
Lab 42
UKIP 42
Ind 20
Green 3
Others 2
Changes:
Con -66
LD -15
Lab +30
UKIP +42
Ind +6
Green +2
Others +1
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21240025
Really, can we leave spinning like that to other sites?
I think you missed my point, which is to show how similar the Labour retention level was in the two constituencies.
In other words, if we have another by-election in the north-east soon, and Labour polled 20,000 votes there in the general election, it would probably indicate they were on course for 13,200 votes.
It wasn't a political point I was making, but a psephological one. You're seeing spin where none existed.
When BBC say "after 7 councils" they mean result of 7 councils is in (ie who controls). But they don't input councillor numbers until all seats are declared. So councillor numbers are actually after 6 councils.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-22371200