Tories losing six times as many votes to UKIP as Labour.
Oh no, Labour will be devastated and very afraid, it's a tragedy.
The risk for Labour is not where the *current* UKIP voters came from [they are largely Tories] but where the *future* ones will come from.
UKIP has eaten the Tories C1/C2 support and the NOTAs. Labour C2 is next.
Hardly a terrifying retort to Labour though, is it? 'Look, yes, UKIP have been eating away at us for so long, we're being worn down to the bone, but you just wait, you'll be next to face the plague of a UKIP swarm coming over the horizon'.
Or rather 'Yes, UKIP have rendered us much weaker and are even impacting on our policy formation now, but it could happen to you too, and you won't be laughing then!'.
Labour will be quaking in their boots at such a threat, no doubt.
Am I alone in wanting UKIP to romp to a record vote everywhere, just for the entertainment value of seeing all three main parties reduced to panicked hysteria?
No you're not alone
I tend to be left of centre, but I'd prob vote UKIP at the moment for all sorts of reasons, and good ones.
I'd vote UKIP now, given the chance, in a local election (unless it was Boris). I will definitely vote UKIP at the euros. Not sure about the GE, yet.
I wielded a pencil in their cause this morning. The revolution began in Kingsclere!
Kingsclere, Hampshire?
My folks are just down the road from there - between Manydown & Malshanger
Yes, the polling station is in Hannington village hall. Small world. :-)
Haven't been to the Vine for ages - great place in the summer. Used to spend many happy hours flirting with the remarkably pretty girls in the village when I was younger :-)
"Asked to forecast the party’s prospects in 2015, Mr Wheeler said: “It really is difficult because the Scottish Nats came from virtually nowhere to have a majority in the Scottish Parliament."
*tears of laughter etc.*
The Kippers should really find themselves a somewhat less eccentric treasurer.
Anyone else find it a sad statement about the skills of our politicians that they cannot even come up with decent nonsense answers to predictable questions anymore? I mean, Labour often do surprisingly badly on the old 'If you criticise the Tories for borrowing more than they said they would, would you borrow even more?' question, when some form of standard answer that is not totally crap should be easy enough to craft, and the Tories really fail to convince when they deny trying to tack right (or appear to tack right) to appease UKIPers.
No! I am not Prince Hamlet, nor was meant to be; Am an attendant lord, one that will do To swell a progress, start a scene or two, Advise the prince; no doubt, an easy tool, Deferential, glad to be of use, Politic, cautious, and meticulous; Full of high sentence, but a bit obtuse; At times, indeed, almost ridiculous— Almost, at times, the Fool.
I grow old … I grow old … I shall wear the bottoms of my trousers rolled.
Shall I part my hair behind? Do I dare to eat a peach? I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach. I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each.
Tories losing six times as many votes to UKIP as Labour.
Oh no, Labour will be devastated and very afraid, it's a tragedy.
The risk for Labour is not where the *current* UKIP voters came from [they are largely Tories] but where the *future* ones will come from.
UKIP has eaten the Tories C1/C2 support and the NOTAs. Labour C2 is next.
Hardly a terrifying retort to Labour though, is it? 'Look, yes, UKIP have been eating away at us for so long, we're being worn down to the bone, but you just wait, you'll be next to face the plague of a UKIP swarm coming over the horizon'.
Or rather 'Yes, UKIP have rendered us much weaker and are even impacting on our policy formation now, but it could happen to you too, and you won't be laughing then!'.
Labour will be quaking in their boots at such a threat, no doubt.
But that's the point. They are the equivalent of the farmer laughing at the locusts eating his neighbour's fields.
They should be planning for the future.
To play fantasy politics for a moment: assume that Scotland votes for independence and Labour, as people have suggested, need to realign to the right to compete in a rUK market. It's harder with the UKIP goblin squatting on the WWC/traditionalist turf.
Ken Clarke should be sacked for calling Kippers clowns. It was just the most asinine, condescending bollocks.
And it was terrible politics. Way to insult 3m people.
Time to retire, Ken.
Ken Clarke has a majority in his constituency of 15,000, at a time when his views are wildly out of step with what appears to be the driving force of current conservatism in this country, so why should be bother retiring? His voters still like him a lot even if his party appears to have moved on.
I suspect what you mean and would prefer is that he be retired from front line politics, which is not in his hands to decide (if they'll give you a job, why not take it?).Take it up with Cameron.
I also suspect had his asinine, condescending bollocks been directed at some other group, no-one on the right would have give two craps, and would be applauding his forthright views and vast experience right now.
But that's the damn point. His asinine abuse was aimed at the voters who are leaving the Tory party in droves - disaffected rightwingers. The Tory party, as I understand it, is not experiencing a loss in votes from homosexual europhile Notting Hill millionaires.
Clarke is personally charming, I suppose (I never quite liked him as much as some others). But he has been a perverse, disruptive force in Tory politics for two decades, a man who always elevates his own opinions, even when they are clearly wrong, and have been proven wrong, over the interests of his party.
Yes: sack him. But do it nicely.
Why? Do we really want even more politicians to be can't tell them apart, refuses to say anything about anything, always PC, Oxford PPE, lawyerly yes-man?
So Clarke is outspoken and speaks his mind? Good. He always has been and its refreshing to have someone like that rather than just yet another clone.
Technically speaking, Buckingham is the easiest seat for UKIP to gain because that was where Farage stood in 2010. But he's not standing there next time because another candidate has been chosen.
Interesting. Starkey's got the quick-crumbling-in-the-presence-of-women desperate bluster of a man who had a domineering mother. He made that pedestal-ish reference to her which usually means she was hated or feared.
But that's the point. They are the equivalent of the farmer laughing at the locusts eating his neighbour's fields.
They should be planning for the future.
Maybe they should, but if UKIP rise further, will that just cause a fearful LDs to implode even further and provide the extra resistance that Labour and the left need to fight off that swarm? I think they believe it will, and their hatred of the Tories (yes, I say hatred; it may be only rhetoric, but sooner or later the words and tone matter and it's hard to pretend there's nothing real behind it. This applies in the reverse too) is hgih enough I think they'd be happy to not make preperations now in case, working in essence with the Tories against UKIP (mainstream against non-mainstream), they accidentally save the Tory fields as well as their own.
Why? Do we really want even more politicians to be can't tell them apart, refuses to say anything about anything, always PC, Oxford PPE, lawyerly yes-man?
So Clarke is outspoken and speaks his mind? Good. He always has been and its refreshing to have someone like that rather than just yet another clone.
Did you say that when he was chuntering on about 'different types of rape' or when he called Cameron a 'Xenophobe'? What about when Dorries called Dave and George 'Posh boys' . Was that OK?
I wonder if South Shields will be another case of UKIP winning the most votes on polling day but losing because of postal ballots, which is what apparently happened in Eastleigh.
Ken Clarke should be sacked for calling Kippers clowns. It was just the most asinine, condescending bollocks.
And it was terrible politics. Way to insult 3m people.
Time to retire, Ken.
Ken Clarke has a majority in his constituency of 15,000, at a time when his views are wildly out of step with what appears to be the driving force of current conservatism in this country, so why should be bother retiring? His voters still like him a lot even if his party appears to have moved on.
I suspect what you mean and would prefer is that he be retired from front line politics, which is not in his hands to decide (if they'll give you a job, why not take it?).Take it up with Cameron.
I also suspect had his asinine, condescending bollocks been directed at some other group, no-one on the right would have give two craps, and would be applauding his forthright views and vast experience right now.
But that's the damn point. His asinine abuse was aimed at the voters who are leaving the Tory party in droves - disaffected rightwingers. The Tory party, as I understand it, is not experiencing a loss in votes from homosexual europhile Notting Hill millionaires.
Clarke is personally charming, I suppose (I never quite liked him as much as some others). But he has been a perverse, disruptive force in Tory politics for two decades, a man who always elevates his own opinions, even when they are clearly wrong, and have been proven wrong, over the interests of his party.
Yes: sack him. But do it nicely.
Why? Do we really want even more politicians to be can't tell them apart, refuses to say anything about anything, always PC, Oxford PPE, lawyerly yes-man?
So Clarke is outspoken and speaks his mind? Good. He always has been and its refreshing to have someone like that rather than just yet another clone.
Additionally, what's the phrase about betting inside pissing out than outside pissing in? Clarke could be sent to the backbenches, but if he wanted to remain as an MP, and why not even at his age, he'd be a welcome guest on many a political programme and could no doubt tear into many of the lesser politicians of the current party with ease. Even his hated opponents know Clarke is a fairly genial and popular figure, or at the least stands out, and not without quality, and if he wanted to could hurt them directtly instead of indirectly.
I do wonder if he won't stand in 2015 though - the general mood in his party is turning hard against his brand of conservatism, and will he have the desire to keep it up after 45 years in the Commons?
Oooh, sorry. I thought we were referring to the previous by-election. Sorry about that!
We were. That was when they first used Faragasm. Now we have the locals and South Shields it would surely be more apt to use multiple Faragasm?
Actually the Kippers should own Cammie's abuse and refer to it as the "fruitcake and closet racist surge" just to emphasise how wise a move that was from Cammie.
Why? Do we really want even more politicians to be can't tell them apart, refuses to say anything about anything, always PC, Oxford PPE, lawyerly yes-man?
So Clarke is outspoken and speaks his mind? Good. He always has been and its refreshing to have someone like that rather than just yet another clone.
Did you say that when he was chuntering on about 'different types of rape' or when he called Cameron a 'Xenophobe'? What about when Dorries called Dave and George 'Posh boys' . Was that OK? Yes definitely. Wasn't the reaction then something along the lines of "Ken being Ken"?
I'd never want Dorries to be sacked even though I think she represents most of what's wrong with the party - we need to have a big tent that can include both Ken and Nadine.
You can't complain about how tight-lipped and overly careful today's politicians are and then simultaneously demand everyone who says something controversial is sacked.
Why? Do we really want even more politicians to be can't tell them apart, refuses to say anything about anything, always PC, Oxford PPE, lawyerly yes-man?
So Clarke is outspoken and speaks his mind? Good. He always has been and its refreshing to have someone like that rather than just yet another clone.
Did you say that when he was chuntering on about 'different types of rape' or when he called Cameron a 'Xenophobe'? What about when Dorries called Dave and George 'Posh boys' . Was that OK?
Absolutely. I might not agree with it, and some things outspoken people say may end up being outrageous, but they'll lose their jobs, job prospects or seats over that as punishment from the electorate/party bosses if that's the case (and if not, well, the people can decide how much weight to give to crazy/offensive remarks when casting their votes, and that's their right), but you need people pushing boundaries if only to more clearly identify why the reasonable position is, in fact, reasonable, otherwise it's a bunch of boring grey tosspots blandly spouting talking points all the time (the Clarks and Dorries' of the world do that too, but with more panache), characterized only by their crippling lack of caution and fear of saying anything that might upset a focus group somewhere.
Give me more politicians who put their feet in it.
We were. That was when they first used Faragasm. Now we have the locals and South Shields it would be more apt to use multiple Faragasm surely?
Actually the Kippers should own Cammie's abuse and refer to it as the "fruitcake and closet racist surge" just to emphasise how wise a move that was from Cammie.
Indeed, as long as there are multiple events on the same calendar date I think the usage is justified
A 24 hour lesson in how to get your Master Strategy 100% wrong.
So, let's get this straight, tim: You're predicting that this will be a disaster for the fops, compared with the 2009 result for those clever New Labour experts who were in touch with ordinary people, knew exactly what they were doing, and never made any mistakes?
We were. That was when they first used Faragasm. Now we have the locals and South Shields it would be more apt to use multiple Faragasm surely?
Actually the Kippers should own Cammie's abuse and refer to it as the "fruitcake and closet racist surge" just to emphasise how wise a move that was from Cammie.
Indeed, as long as there are multiple events on the same calendar date I think the usage is justified
Whatever the result tomorrow, that all the parties find themselves constantly talking about UKIP and setting the agenda is very successful from their point of view. They most want people talking about them. A bit like David Starkey - great opening designed to draw the whole panel into talking about things on his terms, good debating strategy. Doesn't always pan out, but you still play on his rules, or UKIPs rules.
I should note I'm watching QT about 30 minutes behind.
Ken Clarke should be sacked for calling Kippers clowns. It was just the most asinine, condescending bollocks.
And it was terrible politics. Way to insult 3m people.
Time to retire, Ken.
Ken Clarke has a majority in his constituency of 15,000, at a time when his views are wildly out of step with what appears to be the driving force of current conservatism in this country, so why should be bother retiring? His voters still like him a lot even if his party appears to have moved on.
I suspect what you mean and would prefer is that he be retired from front line politics, which is not in his hands to decide (if they'll give you a job, why not take it?).Take it up with Cameron.
I also suspect had his asinine, condescending bollocks been directed at some other group, no-one on the right would have give two craps, and would be applauding his forthright views and vast experience right now.
But that's the damn point. His asinine abuse was aimed at the voters who are leaving the Tory party in droves - disaffected rightwingers. The Tory party, as I understand it, is not experiencing a loss in votes from homosexual europhile Notting Hill millionaires.
Clarke is personally charming, I suppose (I never quite liked him as much as some others). But he has been a perverse, disruptive force in Tory politics for two decades, a man who always elevates his own opinions, even when they are clearly wrong, and have been proven wrong, over the interests of his party.
Yes: sack him. But do it nicely.
Why? Do we really want even more politicians to be can't tell them apart, refuses to say anything about anything, always PC, Oxford PPE, lawyerly yes-man?
So Clarke is outspoken and speaks his mind? Good. He always has been and its refreshing to have someone like that rather than just yet another clone.
He should be sacked for the simple reason that comments like his - i.e. calling kippers "clowns" - are losing the next election for the Tories.
Send him to the backbenches where he can chunter away, and trot out his europhile shtick, somewhat less conspicuously. No one seeks to silence him, they just need to stop him damaging Conservative electoral prospects.
But if Clarke is already a chuntering fool, why are his comments so seriously taken as to be damaging? Because he's a minister without portfolio? We know from whenever an ex-Labour or ex-Tory minister attacks their current leadership that not being in the current governmental clique will not prevent their words being used by party opponents as if they were still in their heydey.
Ken Clarke should be sacked for calling Kippers clowns. It was just the most asinine, condescending bollocks.
And it was terrible politics. Way to insult 3m people.
Time to retire, Ken.
Ken Clarke has a majority in his constituency of 15,000, at a time when his views are wildly out of step with what appears to be the driving force of current conservatism in this country, so why should be bother retiring? His voters still like him a lot even if his party appears to have moved on.
I suspect what you mean and would prefer is that he be retired from front line politics, which is not in his hands to decide (if they'll give you a job, why not take it?).Take it up with Cameron.
I also suspect had his asinine, condescending bollocks been directed at some other group, no-one on the right would have give two craps, and would be applauding his forthright views and vast experience right now.
But that's the damn point. His asinine abuse was aimed at the voters who are leaving the Tory party in droves - disaffected rightwingers. The Tory party, as I understand it, is not experiencing a loss in votes from homosexual europhile Notting Hill millionaires.
Clarke is personally charming, I suppose (I never quite liked him as much as some others). But he has been a perverse, disruptive force in Tory politics for two decades, a man who always elevates his own opinions, even when they are clearly wrong, and have been proven wrong, over the interests of his party.
Yes: sack him. But do it nicely.
Why? Do we really want even more politicians to be can't tell them apart, refuses to say anything about anything, always PC, Oxford PPE, lawyerly yes-man?
So Clarke is outspoken and speaks his mind? Good. He always has been and its refreshing to have someone like that rather than just yet another clone.
He should be sacked for the simple reason that comments like his - i.e. calling kippers "clowns" - are losing the next election for the Tories.
Send him to the backbenches where he can chunter away, and trot out his europhile shtick, somewhat less conspicuously. No one seeks to silence him, they just need to stop him damaging Conservative electoral prospects.
Really that's causing it? How big of a swing has happened since Clarke made that comment? Which opinion polls changed from that?
The Tories are down since last year's budget, since the economies in the doldrums and the mid-term blues have set in.
As far as "Attack Dog" politics what Clarke said barely rates on the scale. The Tories need to work to improve the economy and as the election approaches turn 2-barrels definitely on Labour and potentially UKIP and the Lib-Dems. Not cosy up to them.
If the hints from South Shields prove to be true, it's a very bad result for Labour, with only a small swing in their favour, and the swingback calculus suggests we could be heading for neck and neck in the national popular vote next time.
Or the Tories might still snatch it. I guess in that case we might not have quite heard the last of electoral reform...
PR^2 - the system that lets the Tories win when they get the most votes...
SHORE, R 33.7 % (760) Liberal Democrat Down -27.7% HELD THOMPSON, M 26.5 % (597) Conservative Down -12.1% SPENCER, S.C 26.4 % (596) Lincolnshire Independents Up +26.4% JACKSON, D.B 13.4 % (301) Labour Up +13.4% Electorate: 8615 Turnout: 2254 (26%)
Not much to stay up for tonight, S Shields clear Lab hold with strong UKIP showing and most counts tomorrow anyway. Will probably catch up on the few overnights in the morning and then can follow the results as they come in on the BBC website on and off during the day, will be clear by tomorrow evening which way the wind has blown. Night all! Will also watch tonight's QT tomorrow on iplayer, Starkey looks great value
Are we supposed to take seriously all of these NHS workers who are in favour of the NHS gravy train as if their opinion is impartial? Because it obviously isn't.
Also worth noting that trying to appease UKIP hasn't stopped defections, in fact talking about doing it only makes the effect increase (and the leadership clearly have no intention of completely changing course as such people demand), so Clarke's type of comment really was probably very little harm, and might well have cheered up a few people at least because at least he was fighting back against UKIP rather than rolling over and offering themselves up for a belly rub if UKIPers will just come back home.
The fear of many Tories has made them lose their guts when it comes ti UKIP. Ridicule may not work, or even be appropriate, but it has more dignity than the barely disguised bootlicking attempts from some in the locals trying to stave off the threat I've seen.
Are we supposed to take seriously all of these NHS workers who are in favour of the NHS gravy train as if their opinion is impartial? Because it obviously isn't.
I know, she lost quite a lot of credibility when she said "all of my family work for the NHS". Yeah, they are probably getting paid those huge salaries!
"He should be sacked for the simple reason that comments like his - i.e. calling kippers "clowns" - are losing the next election for the Tories. "
Camerons comments were worse he can't sack anyone without being a hypocrite.
And who's decision was it to promote a load of Etonians and mates the week before the elections guaranteeing Chumocracy coverage which is a gift to Farage.
Why are you so obsessed with schools? Shouldn't the best person for the job get it rather than ignoring good people just because they went to a good school?
Maybe if Labour hadn't closed so many Grammar Schools that many of the previous generations politicians came through then we wouldn't be finding so many from these schools now.
Merely enjoying the predictable hysteria they will provoke. I prefer 'fruitcake and closet racist surge' term myself. Wait till the tories start banging on about Europe again for added hilarity.
Looks like the Tories are monumentally failing to win seats they ought to be taking from the LDs in Lincolnshire because of a big increase in the UKIP vote.
Dont get me started on NHS workers after my wifes experience today,. She is a nurse but she was supposed to be having an operation in another hospital today (a hysterectomy) . Despite being prepped and ready to go at 11am, she was told 6 hours later at 5 pm that the surgeon did not have time to carry out her operation and that she would have to go home. She has been in agony for the past 6 months which is the reason for the operation. She pleaded to be kept in overnight and have the operation tomorrow but was told she would have to wait for a phone call. At no time during the day was she given any information and the nurses spent their day hanging round the nurses station. She had had nothing to eat or drink for over 16 hours and the nurses never even bothered to give her any maintenance fluids. I have never been so angry and I am lucky I never saw the surgeon this evening as I would be in trouble with the police. The staff at the Royal South Hants Hospital in Southampton treated my wife with disdain today and watching those NHS workers on QT blame politicians had me shouting at the TV. Those who dont think the NHS needs reforming are clueless
Ken Clarke should be sacked for calling Kippers clowns. It was just the most asinine, condescending bollocks.
And it was terrible politics. Way to insult 3m people.
Time to retire, Ken.
Ken Clarke has a majority in his constituency of 15,000, at a time when his views are wildly out of step with what appears to be the driving force of current conservatism in this country, so why should be bother retiring? His voters still like him a lot even if his party appears to have moved on.
I suspect what you mean and would prefer is that he be retired from front line politics, which is not in his hands to decide (if they'll give you a job, why not take it?).Take it up with Cameron.
I also suspect had his asinine, condescending bollocks been directed at some other group, no-one on the right would have give two craps, and would be applauding his forthright views and vast experience right now.
But that's the damn point. His asinine abuse was aimed at the voters who are leaving the Tory party in droves - disaffected rightwingers. The Tory party, as I understand it, is not experiencing a loss in votes from homosexual europhile Notting Hill millionaires.
Clarke is personally charming, I suppose (I never quite liked him as much as some others). But he has been a perverse, disruptive force in Tory politics for two decades, a man who always elevates his own opinions, even when they are clearly wrong, and have been proven wrong, over the interests of his party.
Yes: sack him. But do it nicely.
Why? Do we really want even more politicians to be can't tell them apart, refuses to say anything about anything, always PC, Oxford PPE, lawyerly yes-man?
So Clarke is outspoken and speaks his mind? Good. He always has been and its refreshing to have someone like that rather than just yet another clone.
He should be sacked for the simple reason that comments like his - i.e. calling kippers "clowns" - are losing the next election for the Tories.
Send him to the backbenches where he can chunter away, and trot out his europhile shtick, somewhat less conspicuously. No one seeks to silence him, they just need to stop him damaging Conservative electoral prospects.
But if Clarke is already a chuntering fool, why are his comments so seriously taken as to be damaging? Because he's a minister without portfolio? We know from whenever an ex-Labour or ex-Tory minister attacks their current leadership that not being in the current governmental clique will not prevent their words being used by party opponents as if they were still in their heydey.
Oh please, you're not an idiot. Clarke's stupid "clown" remarks have now been thrown at Hague, and Cameron and every other Tory grandee. Prolonging the pain and attenuating the damage.
If he was just an old cigar-smoking pensioner on the backbenches no one would care, and his idiotic remarks would be ignored. However he remains a minister, and a perceived big beast, so his stupidities get traction.
Yes, Cameron was equally stupid with his fruitcake comments, however he is prime minister and therefore pretty much unsackable.
This is nothing to do with free speech or vibrant opinions - it's basic politics. Clarke has made it just that little bit harder for the Tories to win the GE, and he's done it for no good reason at all. Get rid.
I concede as ex-minister he would be easier to ignore than as an actual minister, but I think you are willfully ignoring the huge significance political wonks like ourselves at least, give to ex-ministers' remarks all the time when it suits our political agenda.
Fundamentally though, I think we agree that the issue is that if he is a liability to the party nationally, he has to be pushed to be got rid of, as he has little reason to jump, so his not being gone if he is a problem is Cameron's fault for not having the balls to do so.
If it really true that Labour are down to 40-something percent in South Shields, then that is a mega disaster for them with few precedents in modern times, except for the quite exceptional case of Bradford West. This is one of the safest Labour seats in the country, and Labour are in opposition, for heaven's sake. It's one thing losing vote share when you're in government (as the LibDems and the Tories did in Eastleigh), but mid-term oppositions are supposed to gain support, not lose it.
I find this rumour hard to believe, but we shall see.
If it really true that Labour are down to 40-something percent in South Shields, then that is a mega disaster for them with few precedents in modern times, except for the quite exceptional case of Bradford West. This is one of the safest Labour seats in the country, and Labour are in opposition, for heaven's sake. It's one thing losing vote share when you're in government (as the LibDems and the Tories did in Eastleigh), but mid-term oppositions are supposed to gain support, not lose it.
I find this rumour hard to believe, but we shall see.
It's not compatible with a 5,000 majority on a turnout of around 25,000.
Hmm, much as I have no idea what to do about bus passes, some classic idiot logic from Victoria Coren from David Starkey talking about the need to look at welfare really hard. To paraphrase 'So you think cutting bas passes will solve the entire 120 billion pound mess' etc
The classic 'Your proposal does not solve the entire problem/I've found one instance of it not working therefore the entire idea of looking in that direction is pointless' argument. Good to see it's not just politicians who use that bit of pablum.
HOUGH, J.D 40.6 % (1002) Labour Up +4.6% HELD MAKINSON-SANDERS, J. 26.4 % (651) Independent Up +26.4% AXTON, D. 17.2 % (424) UK Independence Party Up +17.2% TURNER, D.M 15.8 % (390) Conservative Down -12%
I cannot quite recall the last QT that was so dominated by them responding to one panellist, not even previous Starkey appearences. Maybe the Griffin one. Gotta love it.
"I find this rumour hard to believe, but we shall see."
Forget the transparent expectations game, Richard, you're among friends.
My bets are on UKIP to get less than 30%, and I've said repeatedly that I expect Labour to get over 55%. Certainly anything less than 55% would be a very poor result for them, and anything less than 50% spectacularly poor for a mid-term by-election as opposition.
"My bets are on UKIP to get less than 30%, and I've said I expect Labour to get over 55%. Certainly anything less than 55% would be a spectacularly poor result for them.
What's your prediction?"
Well under 55% for Labour.
I suspect I'm going to win this prediction contest, and I suspect you suspect the same.
DODDS, S.R 46.9 % (857) Labour Up +32.5% GAIN WATSON, P.F 29.2 % (534) Conservative Down -22.7% BEECHAM, M. 15.2 % (278) UK Independence Party Up +15.2% SIMPSON, D.A 6.5 % (118) Lincolnshire Independents Up +6.5% DOBBY, D. 2.3 % (42) Liberal Democrat Down -18.3%
Comments
The rise of a Poujadist party is an existential threat to the cosy political establishment.
Labour could go the way of Hannibal.
Or rather 'Yes, UKIP have rendered us much weaker and are even impacting on our policy formation now, but it could happen to you too, and you won't be laughing then!'.
Labour will be quaking in their boots at such a threat, no doubt.
Lab 1418 Ind 1124 UKIP 302 Con 111 LD 55
turnout 33.3%
2012 Ind 1697 Lab 1496 LD 74
The Indy this year was the husband of sitting Indy
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10034251/Exclusive-Ukip-could-have-10-MPs-and-a-minister-after-2015-says-Stuart-Wheeler.html
Out of interest, does anyone know which constituencies require the smallest swings to UKIP for UKIP to win them?
Liberal Democrats hold Fulwood, Sheffield.
Middlesbrough - Pallister Ward
Lab 608 UKIP 262 Cons 29 LD 27 Lab hold
*tears of laughter etc.*
The Kippers should really find themselves a somewhat less eccentric treasurer.
The UKIP anthem:
No! I am not Prince Hamlet, nor was meant to be;
Am an attendant lord, one that will do
To swell a progress, start a scene or two,
Advise the prince; no doubt, an easy tool,
Deferential, glad to be of use,
Politic, cautious, and meticulous;
Full of high sentence, but a bit obtuse;
At times, indeed, almost ridiculous—
Almost, at times, the Fool.
I grow old … I grow old …
I shall wear the bottoms of my trousers rolled.
Shall I part my hair behind? Do I dare to eat a peach?
I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach.
I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each.
I do not think that they will sing to me.
Re your poll alert.
These figures are very similar to those found in the YouGov daily polls. In today's YouGov for 2010 voters:
Cons would vote:
Cons 77%; Lab 4%; LD 1%; UKIP: 16%
LAB would vote:
Cons 4%; LB 87%; LD 2%; UKIP 4%
LD would vote:
Cons: 8%; LB 34%; LD 41% UKIP 8%
They should be planning for the future.
To play fantasy politics for a moment: assume that Scotland votes for independence and Labour, as people have suggested, need to realign to the right to compete in a rUK market. It's harder with the UKIP goblin squatting on the WWC/traditionalist turf.
Lab 1329 Tory 612 Green 345 Lab hold
Labour held Risca East in Wales
Lab 529 Ind 299 Ind 209 Plaid 119 Con 36
Labour 281 Lib Dem 143 Independent 66 Con 44 PC 34 Lab hold
So Clarke is outspoken and speaks his mind? Good. He always has been and its refreshing to have someone like that rather than just yet another clone.
But that's the point. They are the equivalent of the farmer laughing at the locusts eating his neighbour's fields.
They should be planning for the future.
Maybe they should, but if UKIP rise further, will that just cause a fearful LDs to implode even further and provide the extra resistance that Labour and the left need to fight off that swarm? I think they believe it will, and their hatred of the Tories (yes, I say hatred; it may be only rhetoric, but sooner or later the words and tone matter and it's hard to pretend there's nothing real behind it. This applies in the reverse too) is hgih enough I think they'd be happy to not make preperations now in case, working in essence with the Tories against UKIP (mainstream against non-mainstream), they accidentally save the Tory fields as well as their own.
I do wonder if he won't stand in 2015 though - the general mood in his party is turning hard against his brand of conservatism, and will he have the desire to keep it up after 45 years in the Commons?
That would be 24,873 votes using the 2010 electorate of 63,289
Actually the Kippers should own Cammie's abuse and refer to it as the "fruitcake and closet racist surge" just to emphasise how wise a move that was from Cammie.
Hykeham Forum
LD 609 Con 558 UKIP 504 Lab 257
LD hold
LD -11.4
Con +1
UKIP +11.7
Lab +5.7
Yes definitely. Wasn't the reaction then something along the lines of "Ken being Ken"?
I'd never want Dorries to be sacked even though I think she represents most of what's wrong with the party - we need to have a big tent that can include both Ken and Nadine.
You can't complain about how tight-lipped and overly careful today's politicians are and then simultaneously demand everyone who says something controversial is sacked.
Absolutely. I might not agree with it, and some things outspoken people say may end up being outrageous, but they'll lose their jobs, job prospects or seats over that as punishment from the electorate/party bosses if that's the case (and if not, well, the people can decide how much weight to give to crazy/offensive remarks when casting their votes, and that's their right), but you need people pushing boundaries if only to more clearly identify why the reasonable position is, in fact, reasonable, otherwise it's a bunch of boring grey tosspots blandly spouting talking points all the time (the Clarks and Dorries' of the world do that too, but with more panache), characterized only by their crippling lack of caution and fear of saying anything that might upset a focus group somewhere.
Give me more politicians who put their feet in it.
I should note I'm watching QT about 30 minutes behind.
I predicted 7,500
We will blame someone else
The Tories are down since last year's budget, since the economies in the doldrums and the mid-term blues have set in.
As far as "Attack Dog" politics what Clarke said barely rates on the scale. The Tories need to work to improve the economy and as the election approaches turn 2-barrels definitely on Labour and potentially UKIP and the Lib-Dems. Not cosy up to them.
Or the Tories might still snatch it. I guess in that case we might not have quite heard the last of electoral reform...
PR^2 - the system that lets the Tories win when they get the most votes...
Another LD hold
7.2% majority
LD -27.7 Con -12.1 Ind 26.4 from nowhere Lab 13.4 from nowhere
Lincolnshire North Kesteven
SHORE, R 33.7 % (760)
Liberal Democrat Down -27.7% HELD
THOMPSON, M 26.5 % (597)
Conservative Down -12.1%
SPENCER, S.C 26.4 % (596)
Lincolnshire Independents Up +26.4%
JACKSON, D.B 13.4 % (301)
Labour Up +13.4%
Electorate: 8615
Turnout: 2254 (26%)
Ukip take 26% (+12) in first county result of night in Lincs
The fear of many Tories has made them lose their guts when it comes ti UKIP. Ridicule may not work, or even be appropriate, but it has more dignity than the barely disguised bootlicking attempts from some in the locals trying to stave off the threat I've seen.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/05/02/bob-diamond-libor_n_3201649.html
Maybe if Labour hadn't closed so many Grammar Schools that many of the previous generations politicians came through then we wouldn't be finding so many from these schools now.
Lab hold. UKIP second
http://www.election.demon.co.uk/Marylebone High Street declaration.mp4
2012 result LD 2144 Con 1331 Lab 1026 Green 731 UKIP 318
LD hold but big swing to UKip.
http://www.lincolnshire.gov.uk/ElectionsResultsDetail.aspx
Those who dont think the NHS needs reforming are clueless
Fundamentally though, I think we agree that the issue is that if he is a liability to the party nationally, he has to be pushed to be got rid of, as he has little reason to jump, so his not being gone if he is a problem is Cameron's fault for not having the balls to do so.
I find this rumour hard to believe, but we shall see.
The classic 'Your proposal does not solve the entire problem/I've found one instance of it not working therefore the entire idea of looking in that direction is pointless' argument. Good to see it's not just politicians who use that bit of pablum.
LD 1000 Lab 636 Con 346 Green 179
2009 LD 1336 Con 757 Lab 434
http://labourlist.org/2013/05/county-council-elections-and-south-shields-by-election-liveblog/
UKIP win Filton
UKIP 338, lab 233, independent 185, cons 151. Keith Briffett elected
HOUGH, J.D 40.6 % (1002)
Labour Up +4.6% HELD
MAKINSON-SANDERS, J. 26.4 % (651)
Independent Up +26.4%
AXTON, D. 17.2 % (424)
UK Independence Party Up +17.2%
TURNER, D.M 15.8 % (390)
Conservative Down -12%
Presumably the Libdem has gone Independent
Forget the transparent expectations game, Richard, you're among friends.
Lab 40.6 (+4.6) Ind 26.4 (+26.4) UKIP 17.2 (+17.2) Con 15.8 (-12)
Labour hold
Could be the story - big increases but not quite enough to get elected.
What's your prediction?
2009 Con 1381 LD 672 Lab 633 Green 498
It needs to be up at 60% just to be a par performance.
Lab +32 Con -22
What's your prediction?"
Well under 55% for Labour.
I suspect I'm going to win this prediction contest, and I suspect you suspect the same.
Louth North Lab Gain from Con
DODDS, S.R 46.9 % (857)
Labour Up +32.5% GAIN
WATSON, P.F 29.2 % (534)
Conservative Down -22.7%
BEECHAM, M. 15.2 % (278)
UK Independence Party Up +15.2%
SIMPSON, D.A 6.5 % (118)
Lincolnshire Independents Up +6.5%
DOBBY, D. 2.3 % (42)
Liberal Democrat Down -18.3%
UKIP gain Gainsborough Hill from LD
Con hold Scotter Rural