Tim Stanley has a most black-humoured piece in the DT re Lefties version of Righties from the pages of The Guardian...
This made me LOL
"3. Communism wasn’t all bad. Yes, you might have been at daily risk of getting shot for wearing glasses – but at least your corpse was guaranteed a job for life. To quote Seumas Milne,
For all its brutalities and failures, communism in the Soviet Union, eastern Europe and elsewhere delivered rapid industrialisation, mass education, job security and huge advances in social and gender equality. It encompassed genuine idealism and commitment.
A couple of years ago, at Keswick Film Festival, I watched an amateur produced film called "My DDR Teeshirt". The producer was a young man who, around 2005 or so went to Berlin and bought a teeshirt with the DDR emblem on it, not knowing what it was. (Bear with me) However, when he wore it he got some funny looks so decided to find out about the "DDR". He did some research, met some former escapees and some long term residents (including a Brit, who'd taught at East Germany's major university), and came to the conclusion that, horrible though the Communist regime had been in many ways, it wasn't at all difficult to find people who regretted it's demise.
Thanks for that - I had a friend who's kid bought a Che tee shirt and no idea who he was = if he'd known any escaping Cubans - suspect he'd throw it in the bin pronto.
"Escaping Cubans"?!
How do you judge the popularity of Che / Fidel amongst the people of Cuba, dare I ask?
I've been there and asked them. They would be noncommital at first but after they had worked out you weren't a government spy they would be very critical.
(Mick Pork once posted a graph that included 'others'. As I recall, that showed a very strong inverse correlation with UKIP.)
I think it was a yougov but not sure TBH.
You can quite clearly see in all of them where the most significant change across the parties happened. When UKIP rise consistently, labour rise again and the tories start to plummet. It was of course around about the time of Osbrowne's omnishambles budget. Nothing to do with Europe, immigration or welfare.
I think you're wrong about the budget shambles.
YouGov posted an annotated graph today (scroll down on link below)
You can see that the Con line was already reverting to trend before the budget. The distortion was the earlier positive boost from Mr Cameron's EU veto. That unwound shortly before the budget.
Tim Stanley has a most black-humoured piece in the DT re Lefties version of Righties from the pages of The Guardian...
This made me LOL
"3. Communism wasn’t all bad. Yes, you might have been at daily risk of getting shot for wearing glasses – but at least your corpse was guaranteed a job for life. To quote Seumas Milne,
For all its brutalities and failures, communism in the Soviet Union, eastern Europe and elsewhere delivered rapid industrialisation, mass education, job security and huge advances in social and gender equality. It encompassed genuine idealism and commitment.
A couple of years ago, at Keswick Film Festival, I watched an amateur produced film called "My DDR Teeshirt". The producer was a young man who, around 2005 or so went to Berlin and bought a teeshirt with the DDR emblem on it, not knowing what it was. (Bear with me) However, when he wore it he got some funny looks so decided to find out about the "DDR". He did some research, met some former escapees and some long term residents (including a Brit, who'd taught at East Germany's major university), and came to the conclusion that, horrible though the Communist regime had been in many ways, it wasn't at all difficult to find people who regretted it's demise.
Thanks for that - I had a friend who's kid bought a Che tee shirt and no idea who he was = if he'd known any escaping Cubans - suspect he'd throw it in the bin pronto.
"Escaping Cubans"?!
How do you judge the popularity of Che / Fidel amongst the people of Cuba, dare I ask?
I've been there and asked them. They would be noncommital at first but after they had worked out you weren't a government spy they would be very critical.
I'd agree. Been there too, really enjoyed it, really interesting but there again I could leave after two weeks and I was probably carrying the equivalent of several months wages around for the locals in my wallet. The health and literacy achievements are great, but what a price to pay in terms of just about everything else.
IIRC McCarthy reported exact figures from the sample...for ex "Lab 542, Con 342, LD 121" rather than a generic "Labour is doing well on postals"
Postal votes, in the modern mass sense, are sent out too early. They should have a tighter time frame for distribution and return, which would also help with the practice of harvesting.
I know you do. I'd frankly be disappointed if any supporter of UKIP were to admit that something other than Europe or immigration could have such a significant and long lasting effect on the polls, but nonetheless it did.
Competence and more specifically incompetence in Osbrowne's case is what did it. You lose that then don't be surprised that you then trail for months going into years.
You can see that the Con line was already reverting to trend before the budget. The distortion was the earlier positive boost from Mr Cameron's EU veto. That unwound shortly before the budget.
It's interesting but it merely highlights that the flounce bounce was a bounce and nothing long lasting. The Budget shift was. Kippers will say Cam's flounce didn't last because it was a sham but whatever the explanation it clearly didn't shift things as meaningfully as the omnishambles budget did. Nor did Cammie's Cast Iron EU speech of a lifetime. Nor will any amount of speeches and posturing on welfare or immigration. UKIP will be there now to clean up should the tories be dumb enough to keep this going. The good news for UKIP is they just might be that dumb.
Tim Stanley has a most black-humoured piece in the DT re Lefties version of Righties from the pages of The Guardian...
This made me LOL
"3. Communism wasn’t all bad. Yes, you might have been at daily risk of getting shot for wearing glasses – but at least your corpse was guaranteed a job for life. To quote Seumas Milne,
For all its brutalities and failures, communism in the Soviet Union, eastern Europe and elsewhere delivered rapid industrialisation, mass education, job security and huge advances in social and gender equality. It encompassed genuine idealism and commitment.
A couple of years ago, at Keswick Film Festival, I watched an amateur produced film called "My DDR Teeshirt". The producer was a young man who, around 2005 or so went to Berlin and bought a teeshirt with the DDR emblem on it, not knowing what it was. (Bear with me) However, when he wore it he got some funny looks so decided to find out about the "DDR". He did some research, met some former escapees and some long term residents (including a Brit, who'd taught at East Germany's major university), and came to the conclusion that, horrible though the Communist regime had been in many ways, it wasn't at all difficult to find people who regretted it's demise.
Thanks for that - I had a friend who's kid bought a Che tee shirt and no idea who he was = if he'd known any escaping Cubans - suspect he'd throw it in the bin pronto.
"Escaping Cubans"?!
How do you judge the popularity of Che / Fidel amongst the people of Cuba, dare I ask?
I've been there and asked them. They would be noncommital at first but after they had worked out you weren't a government spy they would be very critical.
Sure. But there is affection for the Government too. After all, Cuba is much better in a lot of ways than some comparable countries.
It's just not a tyrannical Communist caricature, that's my point. It's more complex than Plato's "escaping Cubans".
If you look at the YouGov graph for the period since Eastleigh (ie line 4) Con is flat, Lab is significantly down and UKIP is significantly up. What does that tell us?
Adrian Pearson: Local election turnout levels in South Shields.
So much for UKIP animating people who normally don't vote. Or if they are, not enough for them to move their lazy arses off settees I guess. Unless it's been that low due to a monstrously large stay at home protest from Labour voters, but I think we always knew what the outcome would be, so that's unlikely.
Tim Stanley has a most black-humoured piece in the DT re Lefties version of Righties from the pages of The Guardian...
This made me LOL
"3. Communism wasn’t all bad. Yes, you might have been at daily risk of getting shot for wearing glasses – but at least your corpse was guaranteed a job for life. To quote Seumas Milne,
For all its brutalities and failures, communism in the Soviet Union, eastern Europe and elsewhere delivered rapid industrialisation, mass education, job security and huge advances in social and gender equality. It encompassed genuine idealism and commitment.
A couple of years ago, at Keswick Film Festival, I watched an amateur produced film called "My DDR Teeshirt". The producer was a young man who, around 2005 or so went to Berlin and bought a teeshirt with the DDR emblem on it, not knowing what it was. (Bear with me) However, when he wore it he got some funny looks so decided to find out about the "DDR". He did some research, met some former escapees and some long term residents (including a Brit, who'd taught at East Germany's major university), and came to the conclusion that, horrible though the Communist regime had been in many ways, it wasn't at all difficult to find people who regretted it's demise.
Thanks for that - I had a friend who's kid bought a Che tee shirt and no idea who he was = if he'd known any escaping Cubans - suspect he'd throw it in the bin pronto.
"Escaping Cubans"?!
How do you judge the popularity of Che / Fidel amongst the people of Cuba, dare I ask?
I've been there and asked them. They would be noncommital at first but after they had worked out you weren't a government spy they would be very critical.
Sure. But there is affection for the Government too. After all, Cuba is much better in a lot of ways than some comparable countries.
It's just not a tyrannical Communist caricature, that's my point. It's more complex than Plato's "escaping Cubans".
You are right of course but without a fair election who knows. East German TV was full of hearty types saying they were striving to fulfill the Party's five year plan etc etc yet when they got their first chance the East Germans promptly voted the place out of existence.
Cuba has yet to have its 1989 so we don't know what support for the Govt is. In a fair fight not that much I'd suspect. Not that they are Republicans all eager to vote for Romney either!
How soon before the novelty of the graph toy begins to wear off for people? Exact odds please.
Not for me though, the world of politics needs more charts (they seem to have fallen out of favour a bit), but as UKIP may find out, novelty appeal can wear off quickly sometimes.
I kid UKIPers, I've been most impressed with UKIPs resilience after years of struggle.
How soon before the novelty of the graph toy begins to wear off for people? Exact odds please.
Not for me though, the world of politics needs more charts (they seem to have fallen out of favour a bit)
Not for me. Being able to play with data rather than just snapshots in the thread header really adds to the site and, potentially at least, enrich discussion here.
So easy too. I hate, for example, the ONS website.
Mail's Tim Shipman: Labour sources: they're winning South Shields but Ukip romping on high 20s maybe 30%. Tories collapse to single digits. Lib Dems obliterated
Times' Savage: Senior Labour source: "quietly confident" on South Shields. Vote holding up. Lib Dems looking "particularly bad". Turnout around 40%.
Mail's Chapman: South Shields: Labour expects to hold with reduced vote share in mid-40s. UKIP strong 2nd poss breaking 30%. Tories single figs, LD disaster
SKY's Craig: Labour "quietly confident" in S Shields, their vote "in mid 40s", UKIP "hoovering up" Tories & LibDems "in high 20s, possibly breaking 30".
The thing about South Shields is that because of the lack of polling there's no concrete evidence so speculation inevitably fills the gap as to how the parties are doing.
What is worth remembering however, is that when there was a similar lack of polling in the likes of Bradford West there was still some very clear danger signals in the last day or so from the activists on the ground that a big upset was on the cards. We just haven't seen that in South Shields yet as far as I can see.
=========================================
There are 63,00 potential voters in S Shields and yet a mere 200 showed up to hear the charismatic nigel farage speak ...it doesn't sound like an upset to me ..it just sounds like voter apathy
I was up in Shields 3 times this week and many folks didn't even know there was an election coming up ....UKIP have not even contested the seat since 2001 and yet we are supposed to believe there will be a new party getting 25% of the vote ?
Time to wheel out the 'doesn't matter how many you get in a seat you cannot win under FPTP' arguments.
I know it's true, but sooner or later the fact that LDs get annihilated in strong Labour areas (and anywhere in Scotland) to virtually nothing has to be taken seriously, or they may even struggle to come up with paper candidates for these places eventually!
And if a Labour source goes on about 'quietly confident' in a such a strong hold of a seat, they should be slapped upside the head. As should Ed M when he pulls out the 'shows the country is against the government' boilerplate. Tories would do the same in a by-election they won, but that doesn't make it less irritating - I bet the winning 'speech', such as it is, was constructed from cliche building blocks 5 minutes after David M announced he was standing down.
How soon before the novelty of the graph toy begins to wear off for people? Exact odds please.
Not for me though, the world of politics needs more charts (they seem to have fallen out of favour a bit), but as UKIP may find out, novelty appeal can wear off quickly sometimes.
I kid UKIPers, I've been most impressed with UKIPs resilience after years of struggle.
There are 63,00 potential voters in S Shields and yet a mere 200 showed up to hear the charismatic nigel farage speak ...it doesn't sound like an upset to me ..it just sounds like voter apathy
I was up in Shields 3 times this week and many folks didn't even know there was an election coming up ....UKIP have not even contested the seat since 2001 and yet we are supposed to believe there will be a new party getting 25% of the vote ?
By-elections are by their nature strange beasts. Yet they can unquestionably shift the narrative and highlight changing patterns of voting.
Depends what you mean by upset. UKIP winning would be a massive upset considering how safe a labour seat it is, but even just UKIP doing reasonably well cannot be ignored. That's still real votes and not a mere poll. Even if turnout will have been driven down by it being a labour safe seat on top of an unimpressive little Ed.
If you look at the YouGov graph for the period since Eastleigh (ie line 4) Con is flat, Lab is significantly down and UKIP is significantly up. What does that tell us?
Good spot! Perhaps UKIP have reached the Labour pain territory mentioned by Survation yesterday? Lets hope it shows up in tonight/tomorrow's results. :-)
Tim Stanley has a most black-humoured piece in the DT re Lefties version of Righties from the pages of The Guardian...
This made me LOL
"3. Communism wasn’t all bad. Yes, you might have been at daily risk of getting shot for wearing glasses – but at least your corpse was guaranteed a job for life. To quote Seumas Milne,
For all its brutalities and failures, communism in the Soviet Union, eastern Europe and elsewhere delivered rapid industrialisation, mass education, job security and huge advances in social and gender equality. It encompassed genuine idealism and commitment.
A couple of years ago, at Keswick Film Festival, I watched an amateur produced film called "My DDR Teeshirt". The producer was a young man who, around 2005 or so went to Berlin and bought a teeshirt with the DDR emblem on it, not knowing what it was. (Bear with me) However, when he wore it he got some funny looks so decided to find out about the "DDR". He did some research, met some former escapees and some long term residents (including a Brit, who'd taught at East Germany's major university), and came to the conclusion that, horrible though the Communist regime had been in many ways, it wasn't at all difficult to find people who regretted it's demise.
Thanks for that - I had a friend who's kid bought a Che tee shirt and no idea who he was = if he'd known any escaping Cubans - suspect he'd throw it in the bin pronto.
"Escaping Cubans"?!
How do you judge the popularity of Che / Fidel amongst the people of Cuba, dare I ask?
I've been there and asked them. They would be noncommital at first but after they had worked out you weren't a government spy they would be very critical.
Sure. But there is affection for the Government too. After all, Cuba is much better in a lot of ways than some comparable countries.
It's just not a tyrannical Communist caricature, that's my point. It's more complex than Plato's "escaping Cubans".
Well, among the Cuban diaspora that escape to Cuba, Plato is certainly correct that Castro and the communists are highly unpopular.
How soon before the novelty of the graph toy begins to wear off for people? Exact odds please.
Not for me though, the world of politics needs more charts (they seem to have fallen out of favour a bit), but as UKIP may find out, novelty appeal can wear off quickly sometimes.
I kid UKIPers, I've been most impressed with UKIPs resilience after years of struggle.
bbcnickrobinson: Labour say UKIP will beat record ever election performance in South Shields - 30% possible. Lab win. Tories squeezed. Lib Dems squashed
Cue 'in a time of huge unpopularity of both LDs and Con, Lab should have gotten at least 80%! They're the real losers today!' comments. Or the UKIP spin, 'UKIP are the real winners (no matter what we got - hey, it's up from 0 last time)
I can't wait for the county councils, they're at least interesting.
Mail's Tim Shipman: Labour sources: they're winning South Shields but Ukip romping on high 20s maybe 30%. Tories collapse to single digits. Lib Dems obliterated
Times' Savage: Senior Labour source: "quietly confident" on South Shields. Vote holding up. Lib Dems looking "particularly bad". Turnout around 40%.
Mail's Chapman: South Shields: Labour expects to hold with reduced vote share in mid-40s. UKIP strong 2nd poss breaking 30%. Tories single figs, LD disaster
SKY's Craig: Labour "quietly confident" in S Shields, their vote "in mid 40s", UKIP "hoovering up" Tories & LibDems "in high 20s, possibly breaking 30".
If Labour is in the "mid 40s" in vote share it would be either the worst or second worst performance in a constituency they have won in every election since WWII.
The only time Labour's vote share was in the 40s was in 1983 when it fell to 46.5% with the SDP getting 22.7%.
Eh, that joke's a bit of a flop - Farage did it much better when they came much closer to winning in Eastleigh than is likely here. Now it's been done.
Eh, that joke's a bit of a flop - Farage did it much better when they came much closer to winning in Eastleigh than is likely here. Now it's been done.
Eh, that joke's a bit of a flop - Farage did it much better when they came much closer to winning in Eastleigh than is likely here. Now it's been done.
Made me laugh.
Oh it's still funny - just not as funny as it was when the context was more appropriate.
Tomorrows results for localss will be driven by the swings between partiesThere are several options to choose from. National swing ICM May 2009 v April 2013,Con to Lab 9.5%,Con to LD 1.5%,Con to UKIP 7% LD to Lab 8%,.UKIP to Lab 2 %
COMRES May 2013 poll v actual Local 2009 Con to Lab 13.5%,Con to LD 0.5%,Con to UKIP 15.%.LD to Lab 12%,Lab To UKIP 3%,LD to UKIP 15%
YOU GOV May 2013 V Actual Local 2009.Con to Lab 13%,Con to,Lib 0%,Con to UKIP 11%,Lib to Lab 13%,Con to UKIP 11%,UKIP to Lab 2%,Lib TO UKIP 11%.
Eh, that joke's a bit of a flop - Farage did it much better when they came much closer to winning in Eastleigh than is likely here. Now it's been done.
Made me laugh.
Oh it's still funny - just not as funny as it was when the context was more appropriate.
What would be really funny would be a Labour vote share of 42%.
It would be the joke of the century if it happened.
Am I alone in wanting UKIP to romp to a record vote everywhere, just for the entertainment value of seeing all three main parties reduced to panicked hysteria?
Nope. Parties are far too complacent a lot of the time, they need shaking up.
Am I alone in wanting UKIP to romp to a record vote everywhere, just for the entertainment value of seeing all three main parties reduced to panicked hysteria?
No you're not alone
I tend to be left of centre, but I'd prob vote UKIP at the moment for all sorts of reasons, and good ones.
Am I alone in wanting UKIP to romp to a record vote everywhere, just for the entertainment value of seeing all three main parties reduced to panicked hysteria?
Don't know about all three main parties, but the impact on the Tories will certainly be amusing.
Mail's Tim Shipman: Labour sources: they're winning South Shields but Ukip romping on high 20s maybe 30%. Tories collapse to single digits. Lib Dems obliterated
Times' Savage: Senior Labour source: "quietly confident" on South Shields. Vote holding up. Lib Dems looking "particularly bad". Turnout around 40%.
Mail's Chapman: South Shields: Labour expects to hold with reduced vote share in mid-40s. UKIP strong 2nd poss breaking 30%. Tories single figs, LD disaster
SKY's Craig: Labour "quietly confident" in S Shields, their vote "in mid 40s", UKIP "hoovering up" Tories & LibDems "in high 20s, possibly breaking 30".
If Labour is in the "mid 40s" in vote share it would be either the worst or second worst performance in a constituency they have won in every election since WWII.
The only time Labour's vote share was in the 40s was in 1983 when it fell to 46.5% with the SDP getting 22.7%.
The Conservatives are losing six times as many voters to UKIP as the Labour Party, an exclusive poll for The Times suggests.
The YouGov findings, which will alarm the Tory high command, compare votes cast in 2010 with voting intentions now and show that for every one Labour voter switching to UKIP there are six Tories. The analysis shows that of those who voted Conservative in 2010, 73 per cent would still vote Tory, 6 per cent Labour, 2 per cent Liberal Democrat and 18 per cent UKIP.
......
Labour’s vote is holding up well, with 88 per cent of those voting for the party in 2010 still intending to vote the same way, 2 per cent switching to the Liberal Democrats and 4 per cent going to UKIP. The Lib Dem vote is changing most with 11 per cent switching to the Tories, 34 per cent going to Labour and 8 per cent going to UKIP.
The pollsters analysed the voting intentions of almost 30,000 people, of whom 9,287 voted Tory, 7,488 Labour and 6,675 Liberal Democrat in 2010.
...
• YouGov questioned 30,000 voters for The Times between April 1 and 13
Am I alone in wanting UKIP to romp to a record vote everywhere, just for the entertainment value of seeing all three main parties reduced to panicked hysteria?
Am I alone in wanting UKIP to romp to a record vote everywhere, just for the entertainment value of seeing all three main parties reduced to panicked hysteria?
No you're not alone
I tend to be left of centre, but I'd prob vote UKIP at the moment for all sorts of reasons, and good ones.
I'd vote UKIP now, given the chance, in a local election (unless it was Boris). I will definitely vote UKIP at the euros. Not sure about the GE, yet.
I wielded a pencil in their cause this morning. The revolution began in Kingsclere!
Am I alone in wanting UKIP to romp to a record vote everywhere, just for the entertainment value of seeing all three main parties reduced to panicked hysteria?
Don't know about all three main parties, but the impact on the Tories will certainly be amusing.
May day?
Possibly. The level of Tory panic in many places simply in the run up to the elections has been crazy. In places with virtually no Labour, the LDs 40 points behind and no sitting UKIP members, there have been election leaflets setting aside serious space to pleading people not to vote UKIP.
The lack of composure seems significant, as it suggests a great many Tories will flip their sh*t tomorrow if things are anywhere close to what they fear, despite trying to prepare themselves for it.
Cannock Chase is counting tonight, even though Staffordshire as a whole won't be finished until tomorrow. And I assume Tamworth will also be counting tonight.
(I know about Cannock because the BBC's Midlands Today programme just had a live report from the count).
Tim Stanley has a most black-humoured piece in the DT re Lefties version of Righties from the pages of The Guardian...
This made me LOL
"3. Communism wasn’t all bad. Yes, you might have been at daily risk of getting shot for wearing glasses – but at least your corpse was guaranteed a job for life. To quote Seumas Milne,
For all its brutalities and failures, communism in the Soviet Union, eastern Europe and elsewhere delivered rapid industrialisation, mass education, job security and huge advances in social and gender equality. It encompassed genuine idealism and commitment.
A couple of years ago, at Keswick Film Festival, I watched an amateur produced film called "My DDR Teeshirt". The producer was a young man who, around 2005 or so went to Berlin and bought a teeshirt with the DDR emblem on it, not knowing what it was. (Bear with me) However, when he wore it he got some funny looks so decided to find out about the "DDR". He did some research, met some former escapees and some long term residents (including a Brit, who'd taught at East Germany's major university), and came to the conclusion that, horrible though the Communist regime had been in many ways, it wasn't at all difficult to find people who regretted it's demise.
Thanks for that - I had a friend who's kid bought a Che tee shirt and no idea who he was = if he'd known any escaping Cubans - suspect he'd throw it in the bin pronto.
"Escaping Cubans"?!
How do you judge the popularity of Che / Fidel amongst the people of Cuba, dare I ask?
I've been there and asked them. They would be noncommital at first but after they had worked out you weren't a government spy they would be very critical.
Sure. But there is affection for the Government too. After all, Cuba is much better in a lot of ways than some comparable countries.
It's just not a tyrannical Communist caricature, that's my point. It's more complex than Plato's "escaping Cubans".
Well, among the Cuban diaspora that escape to Cuba, Plato is certainly correct that Castro and the communists are highly unpopular.
FWIW, my Cuban friends in SoCal sent monthly food parcels to their family that didn't make it out. That's not a good sign in terms of a healthy, functioning economy.
Commentaries at this point risk looking silly tomorrow, but in case it's helpful, some impressions from the front. I've been in Beestion North all day, a Lib/Lab seat in Broxtowe (Notts) with a strongly entrenched LD councillor. Neither the Tories nor UKIP put out any leaflets at all, even though the division used to be Tory, and the LibDem pitched for a Tory tactical vote. We think the Labour share will be well up but we'll be surprised if we win.
More generally, the feeling is that Notts is touch and go - Labour has (we think) swept most of the working-class north, ejecting most of the independents, but we think the LibDems have defended their 9 seats skilfully by ignoring nearly everything else, while we went for rebuilding the Labour vote in the Parliamentary marginals across the board and I think we'll be the largest party but not necessarily in absolute control. The Tory/UKIP split is hard to read, but we've not seen evidence of a big UKIP breakthrough anywhere in the county.
We found the middle-class Labour vote extremely solid (plus lots of LibDems promising support at the GE, which is the traditional Broxtowe centre-left pattern), the working-class vote less so - not a lot of UKIP but lots of personal votes for the LibDem and a good chunk of abstention.
Am I alone in wanting UKIP to romp to a record vote everywhere, just for the entertainment value of seeing all three main parties reduced to panicked hysteria?
Don't know about all three main parties, but the impact on the Tories will certainly be amusing.
May day?
Possibly. The level of Tory panic in many places simply in the run up to the elections has been crazy. In places with virtually no Labour, the LDs 40 points behind and no sitting UKIP members, there have been election leaflets setting aside serious space to pleading people not to vote UKIP.
The lack of composure seems significant, as it suggests a great many Tories will flip their sh*t tomorrow if things are anywhere close to what they fear, despite trying to prepare themselves for it.
If UKIP can secure a local government base, it will take years for the other parties to get rid of them. If at all.
For the Tories it must be especially worrying, because the Reform Party of Canada showed that things can change very quickly.
I didn't vote today, as there was no one worthy of my support. Instead, I spent a glorious day repairing what seemed like a million miles of sheep fencing around a neighbours land, watching a flight of Apaches lazily flying circuits around the village. Just had a barbie and some beers, and might just sit back and watch the fun of spin and counter spin. My view is that British politics is like Alien vs Predator. Whoever wins, we lose!
Am I alone in wanting UKIP to romp to a record vote everywhere, just for the entertainment value of seeing all three main parties reduced to panicked hysteria?
No you're not alone
I tend to be left of centre, but I'd prob vote UKIP at the moment for all sorts of reasons, and good ones.
I'd vote UKIP now, given the chance, in a local election (unless it was Boris). I will definitely vote UKIP at the euros. Not sure about the GE, yet.
I wielded a pencil in their cause this morning. The revolution began in Kingsclere!
Kingsclere, Hampshire?
My folks are just down the road from there - between Manydown & Malshanger
Usually I give QT a complete miss these days, but Starkey's opening comments means I'll watch for a bit!
UKIP around 30% is pretty good going in South Shields. I certainly sense a real 'screw you' mood in the country right now, with the prospect for a plague on all your houses election a la February 1974 right now. The whole Westminster village has become so pathetically detached from reality, its comical to watch it all really.
Confirmation that Tamworth is counting tonight, another crucial marginal seat:
"Tamworth Council @TamworthCouncil: Polling stations have now closed. Now awaiting ballot boxes to arrive for verification. #sccelection #tamelections"
Am I alone in wanting UKIP to romp to a record vote everywhere, just for the entertainment value of seeing all three main parties reduced to panicked hysteria?
No you're not alone
I tend to be left of centre, but I'd prob vote UKIP at the moment for all sorts of reasons, and good ones.
I'd vote UKIP now, given the chance, in a local election (unless it was Boris). I will definitely vote UKIP at the euros. Not sure about the GE, yet.
I wielded a pencil in their cause this morning. The revolution began in Kingsclere!
Kingsclere, Hampshire?
My folks are just down the road from there - between Manydown & Malshanger
Yes, the polling station is in Hannington village hall. Small world. :-)
Ken Clarke should be sacked for calling Kippers clowns. It was just the most asinine, condescending bollocks.
And it was terrible politics. Way to insult 3m people.
Time to retire, Ken.
Ken Clarke has a majority in his constituency of 15,000, at a time when his views are wildly out of step with what appears to be the driving force of current conservatism in this country, so why should be bother retiring? His voters still like him a lot even if his party appears to have moved on.
I suspect what you mean and would prefer is that he be retired from front line politics, which is not in his hands to decide (if they'll give you a job, why not take it?).Take it up with Cameron.
I also suspect had his asinine, condescending bollocks been directed at some other group, no-one on the right would have give two craps, and would be applauding his forthright views and vast experience right now.
Exclusive: Ukip could have 10 MPs and a minister after 2015, says Stuart Wheeler
The United Kingdom Independence Party could have as many as 10 MPs after the next election and help to form a Coalition in the event of a hung Parliament, according to the party’s treasurer.
Comments
YouGov posted an annotated graph today (scroll down on link below)
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/05/02/local-elections-and-question-ukip/
You can see that the Con line was already reverting to trend before the budget. The distortion was the earlier positive boost from Mr Cameron's EU veto. That unwound shortly before the budget.
In absence of the necessary button.. *like*
It's given me a brilliant graph for an upcoming Ed is Crap thread.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-11621053
She is a qualified solicitor who forgot the basics of electoral law. Quite a few PBers and journalists spotted the tweet.
Competence and more specifically incompetence in Osbrowne's case is what did it.
You lose that then don't be surprised that you then trail for months going into years. It's interesting but it merely highlights that the flounce bounce was a bounce and nothing long lasting. The Budget shift was. Kippers will say Cam's flounce didn't last because it was a sham but whatever the explanation it clearly didn't shift things as meaningfully as the omnishambles budget did. Nor did Cammie's Cast Iron EU speech of a lifetime. Nor will any amount of speeches and posturing on welfare or immigration. UKIP will be there now to clean up should the tories be dumb enough to keep this going. The good news for UKIP is they just might be that dumb.
https://twitter.com/jmalexander1982/status/330056486669660160/photo/1
It's just not a tyrannical Communist caricature, that's my point. It's more complex than Plato's "escaping Cubans".
(Andrea: in 2012 locals it was 6/7k by person and 14k by post)
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/05/02/local-elections-and-question-ukip/
Cuba has yet to have its 1989 so we don't know what support for the Govt is. In a fair fight not that much I'd suspect. Not that they are Republicans all eager to vote for Romney either!
Not for me though, the world of politics needs more charts (they seem to have fallen out of favour a bit), but as UKIP may find out, novelty appeal can wear off quickly sometimes.
I kid UKIPers, I've been most impressed with UKIPs resilience after years of struggle.
Wouldn't it save on paper and teller costs just to reuse the 2010 postal counts?
Labour in South Shields says its vote share in mid-40s, UKIP reach 30 %, Tories fall from 21 % in 2010 to single figs. Libs obliterated.
So easy too. I hate, for example, the ONS website.
Times' Savage: Senior Labour source: "quietly confident" on South Shields. Vote holding up. Lib Dems looking "particularly bad". Turnout around 40%.
Mail's Chapman: South Shields: Labour expects to hold with reduced vote share in mid-40s. UKIP strong 2nd poss breaking 30%. Tories single figs, LD disaster
SKY's Craig: Labour "quietly confident" in S Shields, their vote "in mid 40s", UKIP "hoovering up" Tories & LibDems "in high 20s, possibly breaking 30".
There are 63,00 potential voters in S Shields and yet a mere 200 showed up to hear the charismatic nigel farage speak ...it doesn't sound like an upset to me ..it just sounds like voter apathy
I was up in Shields 3 times this week and many folks didn't even know there was an election coming up ....UKIP have not even contested the seat since 2001 and yet we are supposed to believe there will be a new party getting 25% of the vote ?
I know it's true, but sooner or later the fact that LDs get annihilated in strong Labour areas (and anywhere in Scotland) to virtually nothing has to be taken seriously, or they may even struggle to come up with paper candidates for these places eventually!
And if a Labour source goes on about 'quietly confident' in a such a strong hold of a seat, they should be slapped upside the head. As should Ed M when he pulls out the 'shows the country is against the government' boilerplate. Tories would do the same in a by-election they won, but that doesn't make it less irritating - I bet the winning 'speech', such as it is, was constructed from cliche building blocks 5 minutes after David M announced he was standing down.
We should root for UKIP at 30.1% because of Mike's bet
Depends what you mean by upset. UKIP winning would be a massive upset considering how safe a labour seat it is, but even just UKIP doing reasonably well cannot be ignored. That's still real votes and not a mere poll. Even if turnout will have been driven down by it being a labour safe seat on top of an unimpressive little Ed.
Fingers crossed
Job Done.
That Graph is worthless without a UKIP input.
[Puts on hat constructed from tinfoil, sticky tape and the tormented souls of the dead]
http://www.thisisleicestershire.co.uk/Leicestershire-County-Councillor-Rob-Fraser-joins/story-18324974-detail/story.html
Interestingly both are near the HS2 line proposed to pass through Leics without stopping. Not much support for it here.
https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/330067732617900033
I can't wait for the county councils, they're at least interesting.
'Sure. But there is affection for the Government too. After all, Cuba is much better in a lot of ways than some comparable countries.'
And the evidence to support that claim?
Am worried that in South Shields the Tories have split the UKIP vote and let Labour in."
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/330068379484450816
The only time Labour's vote share was in the 40s was in 1983 when it fell to 46.5% with the SDP getting 22.7%.
Here is the table of vote shares for Labour:
Obliterated is what Hannibal did to Saguntum. Or to the army of Flaminius. Or to the double sized army that Varro and Aemilius commanded.
http://www.lincolnshire.gov.uk/election-results/115878.article
National swing ICM May 2009 v April 2013,Con to Lab 9.5%,Con to LD 1.5%,Con to UKIP 7%
LD to Lab 8%,.UKIP to Lab 2 %
COMRES May 2013 poll v actual Local 2009 Con to Lab 13.5%,Con to LD 0.5%,Con to UKIP 15.%.LD to Lab 12%,Lab To UKIP 3%,LD to UKIP 15%
YOU GOV May 2013 V Actual Local 2009.Con to Lab 13%,Con to,Lib 0%,Con to UKIP 11%,Lib to Lab 13%,Con to UKIP 11%,UKIP to Lab 2%,Lib TO UKIP 11%.
So who will be right?
It would be the joke of the century if it happened.
You and Dan Hodges would get on great, Avery. Bet Dan's already got a whole folder of pre-written articles ready to launch.
I tend to be left of centre, but I'd prob vote UKIP at the moment for all sorts of reasons, and good ones.
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/enjoined
May day?
Anyway, I'm off. I hope the counts are early and the bets are green.
This after Clegg boldly proclaimed the worst was over.
With predictive powers like that he could almost be a PB Tory.
The Conservatives are losing six times as many voters to UKIP as the Labour Party, an exclusive poll for The Times suggests.
The YouGov findings, which will alarm the Tory high command, compare votes cast in 2010 with voting intentions now and show that for every one Labour voter switching to UKIP there are six Tories. The analysis shows that of those who voted Conservative in 2010, 73 per cent would still vote Tory, 6 per cent Labour, 2 per cent Liberal Democrat and 18 per cent UKIP.
......
Labour’s vote is holding up well, with 88 per cent of those voting for the party in 2010 still intending to vote the same way, 2 per cent switching to the Liberal Democrats and 4 per cent going to UKIP. The Lib Dem vote is changing most with 11 per cent switching to the Tories, 34 per cent going to Labour and 8 per cent going to UKIP.
The pollsters analysed the voting intentions of almost 30,000 people, of whom 9,287 voted Tory, 7,488 Labour and 6,675 Liberal Democrat in 2010.
...
• YouGov questioned 30,000 voters for The Times between April 1 and 13
The lack of composure seems significant, as it suggests a great many Tories will flip their sh*t tomorrow if things are anywhere close to what they fear, despite trying to prepare themselves for it.
(I know about Cannock because the BBC's Midlands Today programme just had a live report from the count).
More generally, the feeling is that Notts is touch and go - Labour has (we think) swept most of the working-class north, ejecting most of the independents, but we think the LibDems have defended their 9 seats skilfully by ignoring nearly everything else, while we went for rebuilding the Labour vote in the Parliamentary marginals across the board and I think we'll be the largest party but not necessarily in absolute control. The Tory/UKIP split is hard to read, but we've not seen evidence of a big UKIP breakthrough anywhere in the county.
We found the middle-class Labour vote extremely solid (plus lots of LibDems promising support at the GE, which is the traditional Broxtowe centre-left pattern), the working-class vote less so - not a lot of UKIP but lots of personal votes for the LibDem and a good chunk of abstention.
For the Tories it must be especially worrying, because the Reform Party of Canada showed that things can change very quickly.
My view is that British politics is like Alien vs Predator. Whoever wins, we lose!
https://twitter.com/search?q=cannock chase&src=typd
Cannock Chase is an absolute must-win for Labour and Ed Miliband.
My folks are just down the road from there - between Manydown & Malshanger
UKIP around 30% is pretty good going in South Shields. I certainly sense a real 'screw you' mood in the country right now, with the prospect for a plague on all your houses election a la February 1974 right now. The whole Westminster village has become so pathetically detached from reality, its comical to watch it all really.
"Tamworth Council @TamworthCouncil: Polling stations have now closed. Now awaiting ballot boxes to arrive for verification. #sccelection #tamelections"
https://twitter.com/search?q=#sccelection&src=hash
Sunderland MB, Houghton
Lab hold
At least we can count on Sunderland for counting fast
UKIP has eaten the Tories C1/C2 support and the NOTAs. Labour C2 is next.
I suspect what you mean and would prefer is that he be retired from front line politics, which is not in his hands to decide (if they'll give you a job, why not take it?).Take it up with Cameron.
I also suspect had his asinine, condescending bollocks been directed at some other group, no-one on the right would have give two craps, and would be applauding his forthright views and vast experience right now.
The United Kingdom Independence Party could have as many as 10 MPs after the next election and help to form a Coalition in the event of a hung Parliament, according to the party’s treasurer.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10034251/Exclusive-Ukip-could-have-10-MPs-and-a-minister-after-2015-says-Stuart-Wheeler.html