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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local election night on PB: Your guide – Harry Hayfield and
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local election night on PB: Your guide – Harry Hayfield and your interactive chart to see what happend last time
Today sees the sternest test for David Cameron out of any local election he has so far had to face. The 2009 local elections were a complete Conservative triumph.
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Squirrel!! etcetera.
LOL
;^ )
We were just talking about Hampshire County council and the surprising number of lib dems on it. According to the county council site there are 24 lib dems and a green.
http://www3.hants.gov.uk/yourcountycouncillors.htm
EDIT - Probably been some local by-elections since then to be fair which would explain it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/clips/p006vm6j/the_league_of_gentlemen_a_local_shop_for_local_people/
Detailed descriptions of Cornish electoral divisions can be found at this blog:
http://catholicleft.blogspot.co.uk/
That's for Plato. Mrs Bluebell Wood is busy taking pics of cats in South Shields.
https://twitter.com/SarahChampionMP/status/330012596570832897/photo/1
I suppose Labour believe they have won...otherwise they should spend the last few hours in a better way than tweeting this:
"Just canvassed the best garden ever on #labourdoorstep with @SarahChampionMP & @PaulUpex in South Shields @shieldslabour"
"If we got rid of 10,000 migrants, who would do the work?"
Typical Tory spin. Of course the farmers are keen on mass immigration, they work hard, are cheap and they don't complain. It makes a lot of financial sense.
I'm just surprised that you've embraced the dark side of Tory-ism.
What is your estimate of the turnout excluding postal votes in South Shields?
@tim
Tim you are obviously an intelligent person, so I would like you to consider this...
You may well be right that people want lower crime, higher standards of education, more maternity wards, whatever it may be, and it may be true that mass immigration has improved the UK in all these areas, you obviously know better than I.
But the point that I, and I think many other anti mass immigration people would argue, is that human beings also value their sense of belonging, and it isnt a factor that stats telling of "improvement" in all areas can brush aside.
Lets say someone is complaining that their house is drafty, the brickwork is crumbling, and the lawn is untidy, and they could do with sorting it out. "tim" home improvements services overhears this in the pub, and offers his services. He goes to the house, boards up the windows, pebble dashes the brickwork and paves over the lawn. The homeowner fills out a form afterwards admitting that their home is less drafty, the brickwork is no longer crumnbling and the problem with the long grass and bushes has gone.. You think, "Job done", but they are miserable, they dont recognise their home anymore, cant see out of the windows, hate the pebbledashing and they miss their garden..
You may scoff, but plenty of people feel this way, including many people from immigrant descended families...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/feb/27/support-poll-support-far-right
"Polling stations will stay open until 10pm when the count will begin at Temple Park Leisure Centre, with the final count expected at around 3am."
http://tyneandwear.sky.com/news/article/65640/south-shields-by-election-d-day-who-will-replace-david-miliband
As a Scot I just don't think enough of real interest is reporting tonight. I will wake up and face the carnage in the morning.
One very minor plus for the tories is that LA results dribbling in the next day tend to escape the attention of all bar the anoraks.
Silver linings and all that.
Thanks Andy!
David Barrow (Labour, South Ribble) is standing in Lancashire. It's one of the Preston wards. He should win it. He's already a District Cllr.
Charlotte Atkins (Labour, Staffs Moorland). She's standing in a difficult ward. She's a District Cllr since 2012 too.
Richard Younger Ross (LD, Teignbridge) is standing a Con-LD marginal in Devon.
Labour Lords Leader Baroness Royall is standing in Gloucestershire. I think she's a paperish candidate in a Forest of Dean division.
Disappointing.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/4508014/The-Sun-says-NHS-mess.html
On another place, Andy estimated the postals being 40-45% of the total. I thought they can be 50-55%.
It depend on the overall turnout.
At GE it was 50%. I think it can go down to 40% which would be around 24-25,000 votes
Lab 1.01
UKIP 26
Con 1000
LD 1000
Other 140
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.108815447&oldios=safe
http://playpolitical.typepad.com/all_sorts/2013/05/watch-kelvin-mackenzie-declares-that-its-time-for-a-southern-party.html
Really? I'm at a loss if moderators can't cope with a minor single thread spat that I certainly don't give a toss about.
A veritable PB Tory whine-athon.
Squirrel! etc. ;^ )
Hmmm. So we noticed. At quite some length.
Mass immigration is tim's form of religious fundamentalism.
Everything depends on the scale of course. Good as they will do that's not quite the same as sweeping all before them which I don't think even Farage would claim is on the cards. The Kippers need to adjust their expectations just a trifle if they think every council is going to go purple.
"History could also be made if Labour’s Coun Emma Lewell-Buck takes the seat – she would be the town’s first woman MP."
"Rumour from South Shields. It's entirely possible that the Lib Dems are trailing the Monster Raving Loony Party":
https://twitter.com/Markfergusonuk
First time voting for a particular party and first time I have ever written to a Prime minister.
What is worth remembering however, is that when there was a similar lack of polling in the likes of Bradford West there was still some very clear danger signals in the last day or so from the activists on the ground that a big upset was on the cards. We just haven't seen that in South Shields yet as far as I can see.
LOL
Even a tight win would be crap (I mean a real tight win, not 4,000 maj). No excuses. Theoretically It's a seat where you should poll 60%. I know you won't but to lose /be too close to call would be being at 40% or lower.
Because if the Con-LD collapse, top 2 should get 80% of the vote.
This made me LOL
"3. Communism wasn’t all bad. Yes, you might have been at daily risk of getting shot for wearing glasses – but at least your corpse was guaranteed a job for life. To quote Seumas Milne,
For all its brutalities and failures, communism in the Soviet Union, eastern Europe and elsewhere delivered rapid industrialisation, mass education, job security and huge advances in social and gender equality. It encompassed genuine idealism and commitment.
Now, if a journalist wrote that about Nazism, they’d rightly end up out of a job and living in a van down by the river..." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100214938/revealed-the-five-loopiest-guardian-articles-of-all-time/
http://order-order.com/2013/05/02/labour-edm-stuart-hall-is-icon-with-youth-of-today/
The fops must be skipping in glee at the prospect. ;^ )
What could possibly go wrong?
The producer was a young man who, around 2005 or so went to Berlin and bought a teeshirt with the DDR emblem on it, not knowing what it was. (Bear with me) However, when he wore it he got some funny looks so decided to find out about the "DDR".
He did some research, met some former escapees and some long term residents (including a Brit, who'd taught at East Germany's major university), and came to the conclusion that, horrible though the Communist regime had been in many ways, it wasn't at all difficult to find people who regretted it's demise.
Why the fops seem intent on boosting the kipper vote is their business. Sooner or later the penny is going to drop that they can't pander to them but have to actually beat them by taking them on and winning the policy arguments, instead of pretending the tories are kipper friendly, launching inept press attacks on the kippers or ignoring them. None of it has worked and as we will see tonight seems to have only boosted their appeal.
- Only 44% think women should have a right to divorce
- Only 46% think sons and daughter should have equal inheritance rights
- 79% think homosexuality is morally wrong
- 82% think drinking alcohol is morally wrong
- 88% think a woman should always obey her husband
- Only 45% prefer democracy to a strong leader
- 59% think Western media harms morality
- 55% of Bangladeshis and 89% of Pakistanis believe stoning should be the punishment for adultery
- 44% of Bangladeshis and 76% of Pakistanis believe those leaving Islam should be killed
- Only 34% of Bangladeshis and 45% of Pakistanis believe honour killings are never justified
- Only 10% of Bangladeshis and 3% of Pakistanis would be comfortable with their daughter marrying a Christian
On the more positive side, only a small minority support attacks against civilians and most think women should choose freely whether they wear the veil.
http://www.pewforum.org/uploadedFiles/Topics/Religious_Affiliation/Muslim/worlds-muslims-religion-politics-society-full-report.pdf
In South Shields postal votes alone are said to have it for Labour.
Pearson works for the Journal (a North East paper)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/local-elections/10033191/Local-Elections-Tory-shires-and-Ukip-stand-in-Ed-Milibands-way.html
Anthony's graph is starting to get interesting (I'd say potentially much more interesting than the local elections)
Labour is starting to drop as the Tories are starting to rise.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
Is this the start of swingback?
Who is running the show?
Shapps
Crosby (Who has been brought in to run the show)
Cameron (he is the leader after all!!)
Osborne (he is the master strategist)
Until two of them go. The Tories are always going to struggle
http://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/67069/thread
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
(Mick Pork once posted a graph that included 'others'. As I recall, that showed a very strong inverse correlation with UKIP.)
"She's dragging me into the 20th century, with its meaningless logos and ironic veneration of tyrants."
Could just be the tory candidate trying to impress Cameron but it does sound a particularly eccentric use of resources. Shapps approved no doubt.
How do you judge the popularity of Che / Fidel amongst the people of Cuba, dare I ask?
You can quite clearly see in all of them where the most significant change across the parties happened. When UKIP rise consistently, labour rise again and the tories start to plummet. It was of course around about the time of Osbrowne's omnishambles budget. Nothing to do with Europe, immigration or welfare.
How do you judge the popularity of Che / Fidel amongst the people of Cuba, dare I ask?
How about you hold free elections? or is that a bit too radical for you ?
I vaguely recall my first ever comment on PB.
It was 5 years ago and it was on a Sean Fear Friday thread.
I pointed out that there was increasing disgruntlement among wwc voters in northern England and these voters were there to be won by a party which showed an interest in them.
I suggested that the Conservatives should do so.
Instead the Cameroons chose to go down the paths of metropolitan bigotry and international capitalism.
Your Scoring Guide to South Shields By Election: Labour share of vote
I think that it is sensational and absolutely love it. Once you've got the hang of it it is a great tool to bring numbers alive.
I'd guess last year was pretty serious stuff ..
On Indiana Jones: those films are great, yet they also scared the shit out of me as a kid. It's all PG until the last 5 minutes. Then you see a man's face melt.