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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local election night on PB: Your guide – Harry Hayfield and

SystemSystem Posts: 11,889
edited May 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local election night on PB: Your guide – Harry Hayfield and your interactive chart to see what happend last time

Today sees the sternest test for David Cameron out of any local election he has so far had to face. The 2009 local elections were a complete Conservative triumph.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Why are you bringing this up?

    Squirrel!! etcetera.

    LOL

    ;^ )
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    Are those up to date numbers Mike?

    We were just talking about Hampshire County council and the surprising number of lib dems on it. According to the county council site there are 24 lib dems and a green.

    http://www3.hants.gov.uk/yourcountycouncillors.htm

    EDIT - Probably been some local by-elections since then to be fair which would explain it.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,456
    This is a local election for local people! There's nothing for you here!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/clips/p006vm6j/the_league_of_gentlemen_a_local_shop_for_local_people/
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    FPT:

    Detailed descriptions of Cornish electoral divisions can be found at this blog:

    http://catholicleft.blogspot.co.uk/
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    The Tories could lose control of Staffordshire despite holding 49 out of 62 seats. Current composition: Con 49, UKIP 4, LD 4, Lab 3, Ind 2.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Great charts. So I don't need to have 100 windows open at the same time.

    That's for Plato. Mrs Bluebell Wood is busy taking pics of cats in South Shields.

    https://twitter.com/SarahChampionMP/status/330012596570832897/photo/1

    I suppose Labour believe they have won...otherwise they should spend the last few hours in a better way than tweeting this:

    "Just canvassed the best garden ever on #labourdoorstep with @SarahChampionMP & @PaulUpex in South Shields @shieldslabour"
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2013
    The Green is a LD defector
    Mick_Pork said:

    According to the county council site there are 24 lib dems and a green.Probably been some local by-elections since then to be fair which would explain it.

  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Can we have footage of the happy masses rushing back from voting for ed and rejoicing over his sweep into power all over the one nation ?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,438
    Thanks for compiling the data for us - roll on the counts!
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,456
    Sorry for asking the obvious but is South Shields declaring tonight?
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,358
    tim,

    "If we got rid of 10,000 migrants, who would do the work?"

    Typical Tory spin. Of course the farmers are keen on mass immigration, they work hard, are cheap and they don't complain. It makes a lot of financial sense.

    I'm just surprised that you've embraced the dark side of Tory-ism.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,532
    Looks like the BBC aren't doing an election night programme this year, so we won't get to see the 2013 version of Mings Bling or Cowboy Clegg? :(
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    The Green is a LD defector

    Deeply upsetting. Is there no end to the treachery? ;)

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,456
    Have the "like"/"dislike" buttons gone for good?
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Andrea

    What is your estimate of the turnout excluding postal votes in South Shields?

    Great charts. So I don't need to have 100 windows open at the same time.

    That's for Plato. Mrs Bluebell Wood is busy taking pics of cats in South Shields.

    https://twitter.com/SarahChampionMP/status/330012596570832897/photo/1

    I suppose Labour believe they have won...otherwise they should spend the last few hours in a better way than tweeting this:

    "Just canvassed the best garden ever on #labourdoorstep with @SarahChampionMP & @PaulUpex in South Shields @shieldslabour"

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    samsam Posts: 727
    FPT


    @tim


    Tim you are obviously an intelligent person, so I would like you to consider this...

    You may well be right that people want lower crime, higher standards of education, more maternity wards, whatever it may be, and it may be true that mass immigration has improved the UK in all these areas, you obviously know better than I.

    But the point that I, and I think many other anti mass immigration people would argue, is that human beings also value their sense of belonging, and it isnt a factor that stats telling of "improvement" in all areas can brush aside.

    Lets say someone is complaining that their house is drafty, the brickwork is crumbling, and the lawn is untidy, and they could do with sorting it out. "tim" home improvements services overhears this in the pub, and offers his services. He goes to the house, boards up the windows, pebble dashes the brickwork and paves over the lawn. The homeowner fills out a form afterwards admitting that their home is less drafty, the brickwork is no longer crumnbling and the problem with the long grass and bushes has gone.. You think, "Job done", but they are miserable, they dont recognise their home anymore, cant see out of the windows, hate the pebbledashing and they miss their garden..

    You may scoff, but plenty of people feel this way, including many people from immigrant descended families...

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/feb/27/support-poll-support-far-right
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Sorry for asking the obvious but is South Shields declaring tonight?

    Yes according to this article:

    "Polling stations will stay open until 10pm when the count will begin at Temple Park Leisure Centre, with the final count expected at around 3am."

    http://tyneandwear.sky.com/news/article/65640/south-shields-by-election-d-day-who-will-replace-david-miliband
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,385
    These new charts are really brilliant.

    As a Scot I just don't think enough of real interest is reporting tonight. I will wake up and face the carnage in the morning.

    One very minor plus for the tories is that LA results dribbling in the next day tend to escape the attention of all bar the anoraks.

    Silver linings and all that.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,456
    @AndyJS

    Thanks Andy!
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2013
    There are some former MPs standing today. For ex.

    David Barrow (Labour, South Ribble) is standing in Lancashire. It's one of the Preston wards. He should win it. He's already a District Cllr.

    Charlotte Atkins (Labour, Staffs Moorland). She's standing in a difficult ward. She's a District Cllr since 2012 too.

    Richard Younger Ross (LD, Teignbridge) is standing a Con-LD marginal in Devon.

    Labour Lords Leader Baroness Royall is standing in Gloucestershire. I think she's a paperish candidate in a Forest of Dean division.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,456
    tim said:

    @CD13

    I support the free movement of labour within the EU as Thatcher Nd Blair did.
    The protectionists armed with anecdotes are pitiful.

    Whither "BJ4BW"?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,385
    Have we really given up on the like and agree functions because of the childish and petty behaviour of two posters?

    Disappointing.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077
    The Sun finally lets its readers decide who to vote for
    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/4508014/The-Sun-says-NHS-mess.html
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    In the Court of Protection and Family Division of the High Court of Justice tomorrow:
    Before Lord Judge CJ & Sir James Munby P
    For the issue of practical guidance on committal for contempt of court
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    DavidL said:

    Have we really given up on the like and agree functions because of the childish and petty behaviour of two posters?

    Disappointing.

    They kept whining about it. Repeatedly. Place your childish and petty blame elsewhere chum.

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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    @Avery

    On another place, Andy estimated the postals being 40-45% of the total. I thought they can be 50-55%.
    It depend on the overall turnout.

    At GE it was 50%. I think it can go down to 40% which would be around 24-25,000 votes
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Betfair, South Shields:

    Lab 1.01
    UKIP 26
    Con 1000
    LD 1000
    Other 140

    http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.108815447&oldios=safe
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    DavidL said:

    Have we really given up on the like and agree functions because of the childish and petty behaviour of two posters?

    Disappointing.

    It appears that I can't do anything bar Quote you now.

    Really? I'm at a loss if moderators can't cope with a minor single thread spat that I certainly don't give a toss about.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    tim said:

    Welcome to the Triumph Of The Fops.

    A 24 hour lesson in how to get your Master Strategy 100% wrong.


    A veritable PB Tory whine-athon.

    Squirrel! etc. ;^ )
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    RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    I think we might see history in the making tonight with UKIP.
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    RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    p.s. on the thread spat, it was utterly childish from those involved and nearly made me go elsewhere. Grow up.
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "that I certainly don't give a toss about"

    Hmmm. So we noticed. At quite some length.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,638
    Sam, if the weather improves, Tim will attribute it to mass immigration.

    Mass immigration is tim's form of religious fundamentalism.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    GIN1138 said:

    Looks like the BBC aren't doing an election night programme this year, so we won't get to see the 2013 version of Mings Bling or Cowboy Clegg? :(

    Wot?? That's incredibly unlikely.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    I think we might see history in the making tonight with UKIP.

    In the sense of historically good results for them? A fairly safe assumption.

    Everything depends on the scale of course. Good as they will do that's not quite the same as sweeping all before them which I don't think even Farage would claim is on the cards. The Kippers need to adjust their expectations just a trifle if they think every council is going to go purple.

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    RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    p.p.s. And don't underestimate the effect of HS2. I have a number of Conservative friends who say they will never vote for them again, and whose allegiance has gone to UKIP.
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    tim said:

    @SeanF

    I'm agreeing with Thatchers position on free movement.
    Many on here "like" the views of MrJones a BNP Aryan supremacist more than they do Thatcher's, thats their problem, not mine.

    The pro mass immigration lobby covered up 1000s of gang rapes so it wouldn't spoil the narrative.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Talking about history in the making....Harriet Harman probably edits the Shield Gazette

    "History could also be made if Labour’s Coun Emma Lewell-Buck takes the seat – she would be the town’s first woman MP."
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Twitter is a great resource tonight - I'm expecting #LE2013 to be a good hashtag to start off with but who knows what will prove popular with the Twitterati
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Interesting set of results today. I disagree with Robert Smithson when he predicts a UKIP win in south shields but obviously its going to be very difficult when the opposition collapses around one party. It might be very tight but Labour should just about cling on.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    If Ukip win in south shields I will be nice to Tim for a month.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    @CD13

    I support the free movement of labour within the EU as Thatcher Nd Blair did.
    The protectionists armed with anecdotes are pitiful.

    The problem is that the benefits are generalised (the economy as a whole is bigger/more efficient) while the costs are specific (wage pressure on the lower-skilled)
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,456
    If UKIP win in South Shields I will eat my railway atlas!

    :)
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,531
    Charles said:

    tim said:

    @CD13

    I support the free movement of labour within the EU as Thatcher Nd Blair did.
    The protectionists armed with anecdotes are pitiful.

    The problem is that the benefits are generalised (the economy as a whole is bigger/more efficient) while the costs are specific (wage pressure on the lower-skilled)
    Charles why on earth do you imagine Labour care about the low paid ?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    @Charles.
    It's called capitalism.
    Ameliorate it through the employment, tax and benefit system, not by adopting a protectionist-xenophobic paranoia

    What a charming lack of sympathy for those less fortunate than yourself.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Mark Ferguson at LabourList:

    "Rumour from South Shields. It's entirely possible that the Lib Dems are trailing the Monster Raving Loony Party":

    https://twitter.com/Markfergusonuk
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,197
    Well, today a day of two firsts.

    First time voting for a particular party and first time I have ever written to a Prime minister.


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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    The thing about South Shields is that because of the lack of polling there's no concrete evidence so speculation inevitably fills the gap as to how the parties are doing.

    What is worth remembering however, is that when there was a similar lack of polling in the likes of Bradford West there was still some very clear danger signals in the last day or so from the activists on the ground that a big upset was on the cards. We just haven't seen that in South Shields yet as far as I can see.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    AndyJS said:

    Mark Ferguson at LabourList:

    "Rumour from South Shields. It's entirely possible that the Lib Dems are trailing the Monster Raving Loony Party":

    https://twitter.com/Markfergusonuk

    I stand corrected.

    LOL

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    hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Do Labour have any local associations or any activists in Cornwall ? Being that it is actually a fairly poor part of the country in terms of income levels, with very high costs of living, you would think that Labour would at least make an effort.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,197

    p.s. on the thread spat, it was utterly childish from those involved and nearly made me go elsewhere. Grow up.

    I cant be arsed to go and check, who were the culprits?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    The only way Labour can lose South Shields is if a lot of their normal supporters walk into the polling station intending to vote Labour and then change to UKIP with pencil in hand. Otherwise the canvassers would surely have picked up on something.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2013
    @IOS

    Even a tight win would be crap (I mean a real tight win, not 4,000 maj). No excuses. Theoretically It's a seat where you should poll 60%. I know you won't but to lose /be too close to call would be being at 40% or lower.
    Because if the Con-LD collapse, top 2 should get 80% of the vote.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Tim Stanley has a most black-humoured piece in the DT re Lefties version of Righties from the pages of The Guardian...

    This made me LOL

    "3. Communism wasn’t all bad. Yes, you might have been at daily risk of getting shot for wearing glasses – but at least your corpse was guaranteed a job for life. To quote Seumas Milne,

    For all its brutalities and failures, communism in the Soviet Union, eastern Europe and elsewhere delivered rapid industrialisation, mass education, job security and huge advances in social and gender equality. It encompassed genuine idealism and commitment.

    Now, if a journalist wrote that about Nazism, they’d rightly end up out of a job and living in a van down by the river..." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100214938/revealed-the-five-loopiest-guardian-articles-of-all-time/
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,438
    Plato said:

    Tim Stanley has a most black-humoured piece in the DT re Lefties version of Righties from the pages of The Guardian...

    This made me LOL

    "3. Communism wasn’t all bad. Yes, you might have been at daily risk of getting shot for wearing glasses – but at least your corpse was guaranteed a job for life. To quote Seumas Milne,

    For all its brutalities and failures, communism in the Soviet Union, eastern Europe and elsewhere delivered rapid industrialisation, mass education, job security and huge advances in social and gender equality. It encompassed genuine idealism and commitment.

    Now, if a journalist wrote that about Nazism, they’d rightly end up out of a job and living in a van down by the river..." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100214938/revealed-the-five-loopiest-guardian-articles-of-all-time/

    Surprised they managed to whittle it down to only five contenders!
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2013
    It seems North Tyneside mayoral contest will be counted tonight too.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,438
    tim said:


    I assume you wrote to him telling him he was a fool for opposing AV?

    The Tories' UKIP problem shows why they should have supported AV
    Those now calling for a Tory-UKIP pact should consider how AV could have prevented a divided right.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/05/tories-ukip-problem-shows-why-they-should-have-supported-av

    So they were opposed on principle, rather than supporting it purely for party political gains?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077
    According to Guido Stuart Hall was a Labour member until 10 years ago
    http://order-order.com/2013/05/02/labour-edm-stuart-hall-is-icon-with-youth-of-today/
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    The is helpful.
    Boris Johnson: laws would 'ram home message' on EU referendum

    David Cameron should "ram home the message" that he will call an EU referendum by swiftly enshrining his promise in law, Boris Johnson has said.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10033306/Boris-Johnson-laws-would-ram-home-message-on-EU-referendum.html
    Looks like the tories are going to bang on about Europe yet again.

    The fops must be skipping in glee at the prospect. ;^ )

    What could possibly go wrong?

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077
    AndyJS - When that happened to Owen it killed the SDP. Combined with being beaten by UKIP in the Council elections, the Eastleigh honeymoon will be over for Clegg
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    RuralistaRuralista Posts: 2
    Here in Witney, Cameron's constituency, our nominally safe Tory division has been completely leaflet-bombed by the Tory candidate. I've never seen anything like it. Moderate LibDem presence, nothing from UKIP at all.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,574
    Plato said:

    Tim Stanley has a most black-humoured piece in the DT re Lefties version of Righties from the pages of The Guardian...

    This made me LOL

    "3. Communism wasn’t all bad. Yes, you might have been at daily risk of getting shot for wearing glasses – but at least your corpse was guaranteed a job for life. To quote Seumas Milne,

    For all its brutalities and failures, communism in the Soviet Union, eastern Europe and elsewhere delivered rapid industrialisation, mass education, job security and huge advances in social and gender equality. It encompassed genuine idealism and commitment.

    Now, if a journalist wrote that about Nazism, they’d rightly end up out of a job and living in a van down by the river..." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100214938/revealed-the-five-loopiest-guardian-articles-of-all-time/

    A couple of years ago, at Keswick Film Festival, I watched an amateur produced film called "My DDR Teeshirt".
    The producer was a young man who, around 2005 or so went to Berlin and bought a teeshirt with the DDR emblem on it, not knowing what it was. (Bear with me) However, when he wore it he got some funny looks so decided to find out about the "DDR".
    He did some research, met some former escapees and some long term residents (including a Brit, who'd taught at East Germany's major university), and came to the conclusion that, horrible though the Communist regime had been in many ways, it wasn't at all difficult to find people who regretted it's demise.


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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    tim said:

    @MickPork

    I doubt Dave is up for any "ramming" on Europe as the Lib Dems might decide to ram his 50p tax cut and a mansion tax where the saddle usually goes.

    It's obvious posturing. All the more surprising that gullible tory eurosceptics keep falling for it but they do seem to. Boris knows perfectly well that it won't get on the books so he's putting some posturing in himself and having a dig at Cammie and his Cast Iron Lisbon Pledge while he does so. The BOOers also know they can use the locals as an excuse and are unlikely to stay quiet for much longer.

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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    SeanT said:

    I'd be interested to know what you think Tories SHOULD 'bang on about'?

    Gay marriage, perhaps?

    That worked SO well.

    Welfare and immigration because THAT worked SO well too.

    Why the fops seem intent on boosting the kipper vote is their business. Sooner or later the penny is going to drop that they can't pander to them but have to actually beat them by taking them on and winning the policy arguments, instead of pretending the tories are kipper friendly, launching inept press attacks on the kippers or ignoring them. None of it has worked and as we will see tonight seems to have only boosted their appeal.

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077
    Point of information, my parents' home is in Tunbridge Wells North and it actually has a Tory councillor, indeed all the TW County Council seats are Tory. Tunbridge Wells East was LD in the nineties, and the LDs almost retook it in a recent by-election. The local UKIP leader and councillor Victor Webb is standing in Tunbridge Wells West
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2013
    Pew's just done a huge report into the views of Muslims globally. It makes for very interesting reading. In South Asia, from where large numbers migrate to the UK, for instance...

    - Only 44% think women should have a right to divorce
    - Only 46% think sons and daughter should have equal inheritance rights
    - 79% think homosexuality is morally wrong
    - 82% think drinking alcohol is morally wrong
    - 88% think a woman should always obey her husband
    - Only 45% prefer democracy to a strong leader
    - 59% think Western media harms morality
    - 55% of Bangladeshis and 89% of Pakistanis believe stoning should be the punishment for adultery
    - 44% of Bangladeshis and 76% of Pakistanis believe those leaving Islam should be killed
    - Only 34% of Bangladeshis and 45% of Pakistanis believe honour killings are never justified
    - Only 10% of Bangladeshis and 3% of Pakistanis would be comfortable with their daughter marrying a Christian

    On the more positive side, only a small minority support attacks against civilians and most think women should choose freely whether they wear the veil.

    http://www.pewforum.org/uploadedFiles/Topics/Religious_Affiliation/Muslim/worlds-muslims-religion-politics-society-full-report.pdf

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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Adrian Pearson ‏@Adrian_Pearson ora
    In South Shields postal votes alone are said to have it for Labour.

    Pearson works for the Journal (a North East paper)
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077
    Kent is also not the safest County Council for the Tories in the land, indeed it was NOC in the nineties. Buckinghamshire is the safest as it is the only county council which stayed Tory in the Major years!
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    "According to Professor John Curtice, from the University of Strathclyde, a third of Mr Farage’s support comes from voters who refused to back any of the three main parties in 2010."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/local-elections/10033191/Local-Elections-Tory-shires-and-Ukip-stand-in-Ed-Milibands-way.html
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    RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    HYUFD said:

    Kent is also not the safest County Council for the Tories in the land, indeed it was NOC in the nineties. Buckinghamshire is the safest as it is the only county council which stayed Tory in the Major years!

    And through the heart of which HS2 is set to run ...

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,532
    edited May 2013

    Anthony's graph is starting to get interesting (I'd say potentially much more interesting than the local elections)


    Labour is starting to drop as the Tories are starting to rise.


    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2


    Is this the start of swingback?

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077
    Socrates - At least LD councillors losing their seats can console themselves they were not standing in Pakistan!
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Ruralista said:

    Here in Witney, Cameron's constituency, our nominally safe Tory division has been completely leaflet-bombed by the Tory candidate. I've never seen anything like it. Moderate LibDem presence, nothing from UKIP at all.

    That is odd. Panic?

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077
    Ricardohos - True, but the Tories will still almost certainly hold on, albeit with a strong UKIP vote
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    The reason why the Tories cannot deal with UKIP is because they have to many chiefs.

    Who is running the show?


    Shapps

    Crosby (Who has been brought in to run the show)

    Cameron (he is the leader after all!!)

    Osborne (he is the master strategist)



    Until two of them go. The Tories are always going to struggle
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Plato said:

    Tim Stanley has a most black-humoured piece in the DT re Lefties version of Righties from the pages of The Guardian...

    This made me LOL

    "3. Communism wasn’t all bad. Yes, you might have been at daily risk of getting shot for wearing glasses – but at least your corpse was guaranteed a job for life. To quote Seumas Milne,

    For all its brutalities and failures, communism in the Soviet Union, eastern Europe and elsewhere delivered rapid industrialisation, mass education, job security and huge advances in social and gender equality. It encompassed genuine idealism and commitment.

    Now, if a journalist wrote that about Nazism, they’d rightly end up out of a job and living in a ivan down by the river..." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100214938/revealed-the-five-loopiest-guardian-articles-of-all-time/

    A couple of years ago, at Keswick Film Festival, I watched an amateur produced film called "My DDR Teeshirt".
    The producer was a young man who, around 2005 or so went to Berlin and bought a teeshirt with the DDR emblem on it, not knowing what it was. (Bear with me) However, when he wore it he got some funny looks so decided to find out about the "DDR".
    He did some research, met some former escapees and some long term residents (including a Brit, who'd taught at East Germany's major university), and came to the conclusion that, horrible though the Communist regime had been in many ways, it wasn't at all difficult to find people who regretted it's demise.


    Thanks for that - I had a friend who's kid bought a Che tee shirt and no idea who he was = if he'd known any escaping Cubans - suspect he'd throw it in the bin pronto.
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    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Comment on Vanilla: there is a great deal of repetition when reading all the "replies" which makes trawling through the site tedious (made worse by tim's repetitive copy and paste comments). The reply function on discus is easier to follow but seems to attract frequent frothers. The agree/disagree functions were a useful short-form for comment but rather too mild in some cases. The addition of "bollox" would have been nice.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    The list of the 118 local by-elections

    http://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/67069/thread
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2013
    GIN1138 said:


    Anthony's graph is starting to get interesting (I'd say potentially much more interesting than the local elections)

    Labour is starting to drop as the Tories are starting to rise.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    Is this the start of swingback?

    The wikipedia one includes UKIP. The LD vs UKIP line battle is much more exciting than the Lab vs Tory line battle!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary

    (Mick Pork once posted a graph that included 'others'. As I recall, that showed a very strong inverse correlation with UKIP.)

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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,438
    Plato said:


    Thanks for that - I had a friend who's kid bought a Che tee shirt and no idea who he was = if he'd known any escaping Cubans - suspect he'd throw it in the bin pronto.

    Reminds me of that bit from Peep Show where David Mitchell's character is being forced to buy trendy clothes by his then gf

    "She's dragging me into the 20th century, with its meaningless logos and ironic veneration of tyrants."
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,531
    IOS said:

    The reason why the Tories cannot deal with UKIP is because they have to many chiefs.

    Who is running the show?


    Shapps

    Crosby (Who has been brought in to run the show)

    Cameron (he is the leader after all!!)

    Osborne (he is the master strategist)



    Until two of them go. The Tories are always going to struggle

    Tories have four and Labour only have one Ed Balls
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077
    Plato - As Churchill said 'capitalism is unequal distribution of blessings, communism equal distribution of misery'. Certainly communism did provide some measure of security, which is why I am not an out and out capitalist, but even someone on benefits is better off in terms of income than the average citizen of the GDR!
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    Ruralista said:

    Here in Witney, Cameron's constituency, our nominally safe Tory division has been completely leaflet-bombed by the Tory candidate. I've never seen anything like it. Moderate LibDem presence, nothing from UKIP at all.

    That is odd. Panic?


    Could just be the tory candidate trying to impress Cameron but it does sound a particularly eccentric use of resources. Shapps approved no doubt. ;)
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    carlcarl Posts: 750
    Plato said:

    Plato said:

    Tim Stanley has a most black-humoured piece in the DT re Lefties version of Righties from the pages of The Guardian...

    This made me LOL

    "3. Communism wasn’t all bad. Yes, you might have been at daily risk of getting shot for wearing glasses – but at least your corpse was guaranteed a job for life. To quote Seumas Milne,

    For all its brutalities and failures, communism in the Soviet Union, eastern Europe and elsewhere delivered rapid industrialisation, mass education, job security and huge advances in social and gender equality. It encompassed genuine idealism and commitment.

    Now, if a journalist wrote that about Nazism, they’d rightly end up out of a job and living in a ivan down by the river..." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100214938/revealed-the-five-loopiest-guardian-articles-of-all-time/

    A couple of years ago, at Keswick Film Festival, I watched an amateur produced film called "My DDR Teeshirt".
    The producer was a young man who, around 2005 or so went to Berlin and bought a teeshirt with the DDR emblem on it, not knowing what it was. (Bear with me) However, when he wore it he got some funny looks so decided to find out about the "DDR".
    He did some research, met some former escapees and some long term residents (including a Brit, who'd taught at East Germany's major university), and came to the conclusion that, horrible though the Communist regime had been in many ways, it wasn't at all difficult to find people who regretted it's demise.


    Thanks for that - I had a friend who's kid bought a Che tee shirt and no idea who he was = if he'd known any escaping Cubans - suspect he'd throw it in the bin pronto.
    "Escaping Cubans"?!

    How do you judge the popularity of Che / Fidel amongst the people of Cuba, dare I ask?
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited May 2013

    Plato said:

    Tim Stanley has a most black-humoured piece in the DT re Lefties version of Righties from the pages of The Guardian...

    This made me LOL

    "3. Communism wasn’t all bad. Yes, you might have been at daily risk of getting shot for wearing glasses – but at least your corpse was guaranteed a job for life. To quote Seumas Milne,

    For all its brutalities and failures, communism in the Soviet Union, eastern Europe and elsewhere delivered rapid industrialisation, mass education, job security and huge advances in social and gender equality. It encompassed genuine idealism and commitment.

    Now, if a journalist wrote that about Nazism, they’d rightly end up out of a job and living in a van down by the river..." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100214938/revealed-the-five-loopiest-guardian-articles-of-all-time/

    A couple of years ago, at Keswick Film Festival, I watched an amateur produced film called "My DDR Teeshirt".
    The producer was a young man who, around 2005 or so went to Berlin and bought a teeshirt with the DDR emblem on it, not knowing what it was. (Bear with me) However, when he wore it he got some funny looks so decided to find out about the "DDR".
    He did some research, met some former escapees and some long term residents (including a Brit, who'd taught at East Germany's major university), and came to the conclusion that, horrible though the Communist regime had been in many ways, it wasn't at all difficult to find people who regretted it's demise.


    I think die Linke ( the "Lefts" ) got nearly 12% last time round in the German GE. They trace a major part of their lineage back to the SED (socialist unity party ie communist) of the GDR (which is DDR in German). So I suppose a fair few of them are "ostalgic". Barking mind, if they are, but there you go.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    carl said:

    Plato said:

    Plato said:

    Tim Stanley has a most black-humoured piece in the DT re Lefties version of Righties from the pages of The Guardian...

    This made me LOL

    "3. Communism wasn’t all bad. Yes, you might have been at daily risk of getting shot for wearing glasses – but at least your corpse was guaranteed a job for life. To quote Seumas Milne,

    For all its brutalities and failures, communism in the Soviet Union, eastern Europe and elsewhere delivered rapid industrialisation, mass education, job security and huge advances in social and gender equality. It encompassed genuine idealism and commitment.

    Now, if a journalist wrote that about Nazism, they’d rightly end up out of a job and living in a ivan down by the river..." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100214938/revealed-the-five-loopiest-guardian-articles-of-all-time/

    A couple of years ago, at Keswick Film Festival, I watched an amateur produced film called "My DDR Teeshirt".
    The producer was a young man who, around 2005 or so went to Berlin and bought a teeshirt with the DDR emblem on it, not knowing what it was. (Bear with me) However, when he wore it he got some funny looks so decided to find out about the "DDR".
    He did some research, met some former escapees and some long term residents (including a Brit, who'd taught at East Germany's major university), and came to the conclusion that, horrible though the Communist regime had been in many ways, it wasn't at all difficult to find people who regretted it's demise.


    Thanks for that - I had a friend who's kid bought a Che tee shirt and no idea who he was = if he'd known any escaping Cubans - suspect he'd throw it in the bin pronto.
    "Escaping Cubans"?!

    How do you judge the popularity of Che / Fidel amongst the people of Cuba, dare I ask?
    The shark infested waters that surround Cuba, may have a bearing on people's ability to express a contrary opinion.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    (Mick Pork once posted a graph that included 'others'. As I recall, that showed a very strong inverse correlation with UKIP.)

    I think it was a yougov but not sure TBH.

    You can quite clearly see in all of them where the most significant change across the parties happened. When UKIP rise consistently, labour rise again and the tories start to plummet. It was of course around about the time of Osbrowne's omnishambles budget. Nothing to do with Europe, immigration or welfare.

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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,531
    edited May 2013
    @carl


    How do you judge the popularity of Che / Fidel amongst the people of Cuba, dare I ask?



    How about you hold free elections? or is that a bit too radical for you ?
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    SeanT said:

    FFS. The face of Jurgen Habermas, noted German sociologist, is actually MELTING.

    http://tinyurl.com/d4roz8y

    ????

    You must ask Plato to show you her snake bite photo.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,456
    SeanT said:

    FFS. The face of Jurgen Habermas, noted German sociologist, is actually MELTING.

    http://tinyurl.com/d4roz8y

    ????

    Ah, so was he the Nazi in "Raiders of the Lost Ark"?

    :)
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,719
    Re wwc support for UKIP.

    I vaguely recall my first ever comment on PB.

    It was 5 years ago and it was on a Sean Fear Friday thread.

    I pointed out that there was increasing disgruntlement among wwc voters in northern England and these voters were there to be won by a party which showed an interest in them.

    I suggested that the Conservatives should do so.

    Instead the Cameroons chose to go down the paths of metropolitan bigotry and international capitalism.

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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013
    Ladies and Gentlemen

    Your Scoring Guide to South Shields By Election: Labour share of vote
    75% up           Hole in One, Drinks all round
    70% to 74% Eagle
    65% to 69% Birdie
    --------------------------------------
    60% to 64% Par
    --------------------------------------
    55% to 59% Bogey
    50% to 54% Double Bogey
    49% down Miliband loses PGA card
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Thanks for the comments on the "graph toy"

    I think that it is sensational and absolutely love it. Once you've got the hang of it it is a great tool to bring numbers alive.



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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Ladies and Gentlemen

    Your Scoring Guide to South Shields By Election: Labour share of vote


    75% up   inept spin

    70% to 74% inept spin
    65% to 69% inept spin
    --------------------------------------
    60% to 64% inept spin
    --------------------------------------
    55% to 59% inept spin
    50% to 54% inept spin
    49% down inept spin
    Fixed your expectations management for you Seth, ;)
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Speaking of TO - now we are on Vanilla - how does traffic this evening compare?

    I'd guess last year was pretty serious stuff ..
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    tim said:

    @anotherricherd

    Dave thinks the WWC is the workmens lavatory at his prep school.

    It is a shock that you do Dave the honour of suggesting he thinks. What has he done to shoot up in your estimation?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,238
    The graph toy is indeed splendid.

    On Indiana Jones: those films are great, yet they also scared the shit out of me as a kid. It's all PG until the last 5 minutes. Then you see a man's face melt.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,438

    Thanks for the comments on the "graph toy"

    I think that it is sensational and absolutely love it. Once you've got the hang of it it is a great tool to bring numbers alive.

    Can it do pie charts, line graphs? We want more!!

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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Thanks for the comments on the "graph toy"

    I think that it is sensational and absolutely love it. Once you've got the hang of it it is a great tool to bring numbers alive.



    It's very good but I don't understand why it needs the scroll up/down instead of just taking all the space it needs in the header.

This discussion has been closed.