politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How are the Dominoes going to fall?
Comments
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Yellow teeth, brown fingers, bad breath, poor skin, pack of 20 in their pocket...Foxy said:
It says history, so they asked the patient.Andy_JS said:
How would they know whether someone was a smoker or not? Surely they don't track and monitor people that intensively in China...Foxy said:
One of the curiosities from China is that victims of Covid there were rarely smokers, despite 52% of Chinese men being smokers.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not necessarily myocarditis, but some other things, I guess one thing we have to be a little bit careful of is did the patients have undiagnosed problems before they got it. I mean 80% of Chinese men smoking (or whatever the % is), you shouldn't really be shocked they already have quite screwed lungs and all the other conditions associated with it.Foxy said:
It's more the myocarditis that concerns me. It seems to feature in a minority with the condition.FrancisUrquhart said:
That are lots of the reports coming out of China. Lots of survivors with significant lung damage, which they don't know how permanent it is.Alistair said:Reas an interesting thread the other day about SARS survivors. Most who survived had long term damage to their lungs and have not fully recovered.
We could well be looking at a massive rise in the number of disabled people after this is all over.
We just don't know what the long term will be yet.
The links here to a Singapore School of Public Health are really excellent for those interested in science rather than rumour.
ubcprez/status/1239990410736357376?s=19
"Smoking Status
Out of 1085 patients with acute respiratory disease due to SARS-CoV-2 in China11, 85% had no
history of smoking, 13% were current smokers, and 2% had smoked in the past. This contrasts
with the known high smoking prevalence in China of 27.7% (52.1% among men and 2.7%
among women) in 2015. "
From the Singapore website that I linked to before.
Smokers who get it get it badly though, with an ods ratio of 14 of dying from it.0 -
Not good at all.Big_G_NorthWales said:546 deaths in Italy today
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Yes, that`s how I see it.kinabalu said:
The employee gets the money, yes, but the employer is saved the money that they would otherwise pay.MaxPB said:No, the employees get the money, it is paid into the PAYE account by HMRC (negative income tax, basically). The company has no control over it. It's actually a difficult system to game or abuse as it's only for existing employees and it's paid via a very secure system.
So an example of how to game it -
A company with white collar staff and enough reserves to ride out the crisis for a while. Pre Sunak they have sent some of their people home to "work". They are technically WFH although in reality the firm can carry on OK without them. They are just doing some emails, some reports, some video meetings, all of that stuff. There is no intention to fire these people atm.
Now, post Sunak. The company designates these WFH people as no longer working from home but on furlough due to the crisis.
The vault is open. Company better off to the tune of £7500 per worker over the 3 months - and for longer if extended.
Perhaps when the detail is known there will be controls to stop this.
Thinking smaller scale, a director of his own ltd company, set up to accommodate only himself/herself as the sole employee, can put himself/herself on furlough and claim the money (whilst possible actually carrying on working to some extent).0 -
I just said that very sentence to the Good Lady.Cyclefree said:I wonder how many of their stores will reopen once this is over.
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I think you will find it is a common affliction (at least I hope so cos I have it). It also includes a fear of high places as there is a desire to be drawn to the edge and jump and also to shout out in a quiet theatre. I have never done the last one and clearly not the other 2 either.malcolmg said:
I can safely say I have never thought of jumping in front of a train, you sound a bit worrying. I have thought of punching a good few but not old ladies.kinabalu said:malcolmg said:Another one bereft of the milk of human kindness, a poor old lady taking her only opportunity of the week to have a minutes chat and you dreaming of beating up the poor old soul.
Not "dream of" - it's more one of those bad "urges" that we all have and fight back.
Like jumping in front of a train. Bet you get that one.0 -
They had a report from an ICU department on Sky yesterday, and they said in 2 weeks only 1 individual has made any progress towards recovery. Every single other patient has either died or in the same state as they were days / weeks ago.
The worst thing is going to be if something really simple does actually massively alter people's trajectory.0 -
Perhaps so. But what I mean is that Sunak's package has made it a no-brainer to close and put your employees on furlough to get the government paying 80% of the wage bill.eristdoof said:I think it is more a function of the John Lewis clientelle being people who take the social distancing seriously, so not going to department stores.
So JL were probably struggling and without the package would have carried on struggling for a while longer. Perhaps closing some stores. Perhaps laying off some staff. Now with the package, they do the obvious. Close down for at least 3 months.
If this is right, next week we will see a lot of this. Businesses closing down that otherwise would have carried on for longer in some fashion. No doubt this is factored into the planning rather than being an unintended consequence, since it seems predictable.1 -
Good morning all. I hope everyone is keeping safe.2
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NY beginning to be overwhelmed:
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/han/advisory/2020/covid-19-03202020.pdf
To preserve PPE for HCW providing medically necessary care for hospitalized patients, the NYC Health Department is directing healthcare facilities to IMMEDIATELY STOP TESTING NON-HOSPITALIZED PATIENTS FOR COVID-19 unless test results will impact the clinical management of the patient. In addition, do not test asymptomatic people, including HCWs or first responders. COVID-19 testing is only indicated for HOSPITALIZED PATIENTS....
Similar shortage of PPE to us.0 -
I think the people at greatest risk are those amateurs out and about with secateurs....rcs1000 said:Good morning all. I hope everyone is keeping safe.
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Where was this?FrancisUrquhart said:They had a report from an ICU department on Sky yesterday, and they said in 2 weeks only 1 individual has made any progress towards recovery. Every single other patient has either died or in the same state as they were days / weeks ago.
The worst thing is going to be if something really simple does actually massively alter people's trajectory.0 -
Here's an interesting piece of research from the New England Complex Systems Institute on the much quoted Imperial research piece.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
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That John Lewis decision is going to cost the taxpayer a fortune. Bet they wouldn`t have done that without the Sunak deal.kinabalu said:
This is a possible example of the "gaming" of Sunak's package that I posted about earlier.Scott_xP said:
JL can place employees "on furlough" and pay 20% of wages instead of 100%.
They can do this even if without the package they were not going to fire people at this point.
Kinabalu, I hadn`t realised that companies have to pay the 20%. I assumed that the employee got "just" 80% from the government because it allowed for a 20% income tax deduction. Are you sure?0 -
I'm sure it said on the news a little while ago that John Lewis's online offer was to continue as normal. They're presumably just closing the physical stores because footfall has dropped off so much that the sales being made don't come anywhere near to covering costs.felix said:
If, as seems logical to assume, other businesses are suffering similar precipitous declines in physical sales then I'm sure you're right and that this will be just the first in a tsunami wave of closures. In a couple of weeks' time you would think that physical retail will consist principally of grocery, pharmacy, takeaway food and places like builders' merchants that mostly or solely sell to tradespeople. In terms of the rest of the High Street you'd think that dentists, opticians and hairdressers will probably keep trading as well, and that'll be about it.2 -
Very interesting. Korea seems to stand apart from the whole of the rest of the world on the graphs - they must be doing something right.rcs1000 said:Here's an interesting piece of research from the New England Complex Systems Institute on the much quoted Imperial research piece.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.0 -
Yes, can we hope to bury 'there is no such thing as society' and 'the market will provide'? But I suppose like the 'The Blessed Margaret' (aka the evil old cow) in the interests of public safety they should be treated as toxic clinical waste and cremated or incinerated.WhisperingOracle said:The crisis is exposing many of the cracked undersides of Britain's public support and infrastructure over many years. Hopefully a silver lining, in a new era of different government support, will be to the put to bed once and for all some of the myths about incomes that have fed the neo-victorian atmosphere on welfare of the last 40 years, which have weakened both the economy and society for very little gain.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/21/food-banks-plead-with-uk-supermarkets-to-set-aside-supplies-amid-coronavirus-fallout
"Many food banks said they were finding it impossible to replenish food stocks, even as thousands more people turned to them for help, and others said they had been overwhelmed as hundreds of elderly volunteer regulars were forced to go into self-isolation."0 -
To entertain 2 teenage boys for three months I have today ordered a dart board and basketball hoop.
Straws clutching?0 -
When you stop testing people, that's a serious, serious problem.Nigelb said:NY beginning to be overwhelmed:
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/han/advisory/2020/covid-19-03202020.pdf
To preserve PPE for HCW providing medically necessary care for hospitalized patients, the NYC Health Department is directing healthcare facilities to IMMEDIATELY STOP TESTING NON-HOSPITALIZED PATIENTS FOR COVID-19 unless test results will impact the clinical management of the patient. In addition, do not test asymptomatic people, including HCWs or first responders. COVID-19 testing is only indicated for HOSPITALIZED PATIENTS....
Similar shortage of PPE to us.
Indeed, the one ray of hope with Italy yesterday is that they raised their testing numbers from 17,000 to 24,000. The more people you can catch, especially if they're in jobs where they still have contact with people, the more you can slow CV-19 down.0 -
Have you tried spikeball ?Jonathan said:To entertain 2 teenage boys for three months I have today ordered a dart board and basketball hoop.
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Malc, I get your point and agree to some extent. I`m not bereft of kindness. But bear in mind that if one engages in small-talk with the person serving you (in a supermarket or anywhere else) in full knowledge that there is a queue of people waiting to be served this in itself is really impolite behaviour.malcolmg said:
Another one bereft of the milk of human kindness, a poor old lady taking her only opportunity of the week to have a minutes chat and you dreaming of beating up the poor old soul.kinabalu said:
That drives me nuts. When it happens - and particularly if the person in front of me doing the chatting is a little old lady - I always have a strong urge to deliver a poleaxing rabbit punch.Stocky said:To be fair, it`s very annoying when in a supermarket queue the till person is engaging in small-talk with the person in front.
To my great credit, however, I have never done so and I'm reasonably confident I never will.
#morethatunites
So a bit of wrongness on both sides, can we agree?0 -
But the point applies equally to businesses that do not cause the public to travel. It could be any business that is struggling but would not be laying off people right now. For example, the business could have people WFH - OK, now change their designation from WFH Due To Crisis to On Furlough Due To Crisis. That unlocks the 80%.Mortimer said:But the incentive is there to stop non essential travel AND not make redundancies.
Employees travelling to Peter Jones is not essential
People wanting a new colander is not essential.
What you call 'gaming' is the system working....
Plus, JL are struggling at the moment. I wouldn't have been surprised if those who were in shops and had less than 2 years under their belt would have been made redundant when shops were closed.
I put "gaming" in inverteds because all of this is probably priced in by the authors of the package.0 -
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.rcs1000 said:Here's an interesting piece of research from the New England Complex Systems Institute on the much quoted Imperial research piece.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.0 -
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-everyone-dies-alone-heartbreak-at-the-italian-hospital-on-the-brink-of-collapse-11961130MarqueeMark said:
Where was this?FrancisUrquhart said:They had a report from an ICU department on Sky yesterday, and they said in 2 weeks only 1 individual has made any progress towards recovery. Every single other patient has either died or in the same state as they were days / weeks ago.
The worst thing is going to be if something really simple does actually massively alter people's trajectory.
Required reading for minimising fuckwits, and everybody else.0 -
Surely protecting struggling businesses is the whole point of the package? I don't see how this is anything but working as intended.kinabalu said:
But the point applies equally to businesses that do not cause the public to travel. It could be any business that is struggling but would not be laying off people right now. For example, the business could have people WFH - OK, now change their designation from WFH Due To Crisis to On Furlough Due To Crisis. That unlocks the 80%.Mortimer said:But the incentive is there to stop non essential travel AND not make redundancies.
Employees travelling to Peter Jones is not essential
People wanting a new colander is not essential.
What you call 'gaming' is the system working....
Plus, JL are struggling at the moment. I wouldn't have been surprised if those who were in shops and had less than 2 years under their belt would have been made redundant when shops were closed.
I put "gaming" in inverteds because all of this is probably priced in by the authors of the package.0 -
Save your vinegar for cleaning the house - she never said it.rural_voter said:
Yes, can we hope to bury 'there is no such thing as society' and 'the market will provide'? But I suppose like the 'The Blessed Margaret' (aka the evil old cow) in the interests of public safety they should be treated as toxic clinical waste and cremated or incinerated.WhisperingOracle said:The crisis is exposing many of the cracked undersides of Britain's public support and infrastructure over many years. Hopefully a silver lining, in a new era of different government support, will be to the put to bed once and for all some of the myths about incomes that have fed the neo-victorian atmosphere on welfare of the last 40 years, which have weakened both the economy and society for very little gain.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/21/food-banks-plead-with-uk-supermarkets-to-set-aside-supplies-amid-coronavirus-fallout
"Many food banks said they were finding it impossible to replenish food stocks, even as thousands more people turned to them for help, and others said they had been overwhelmed as hundreds of elderly volunteer regulars were forced to go into self-isolation."0 -
Was similar in newspaper article, it was Lombardy, rows and rows of coffins etcMarqueeMark said:
Where was this?FrancisUrquhart said:They had a report from an ICU department on Sky yesterday, and they said in 2 weeks only 1 individual has made any progress towards recovery. Every single other patient has either died or in the same state as they were days / weeks ago.
The worst thing is going to be if something really simple does actually massively alter people's trajectory.0 -
So I won't get it but if I do I'm toast.FrancisUrquhart said:Better get down the shops and start bulk buying ciggies...
Need to mull that one over.0 -
I think Italy and Iran are rising less steeply. Could be an indication that they are becoming "saturated".felix said:
Is it me or are some of those curves rising less steeply now?Barnesian said:Today's data. I've added Spain and Iran. Sorry it makes it a bit more cluttered.
Italy reported cases of 47,000 is about 0.1% of the population.
Iran reported cases of 20,000 is about 0.025% of the population.
I think these are at 100 times under reported. The iceberg.0 -
The South Korean regime is about:williamglenn said:
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.rcs1000 said:Here's an interesting piece of research from the New England Complex Systems Institute on the much quoted Imperial research piece.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
- having people report symptoms early
- testing people in and around those who test positive
Now, I can see that not working in places with no healthcare. And I can see that we lack the testing infrastucture (currently) do do that.
But it doesn't seem to need any societal change.0 -
I survived a session with a Stanley knife earlier.MarqueeMark said:
I think the people at greatest risk are those amateurs out and about with secateurs....rcs1000 said:Good morning all. I hope everyone is keeping safe.
I have now adopted the use of a stress ball to avoid touching my face.0 -
Hard to say. Could be an opportunity for a cull by the new management? That said, one would've thought that having an extra-long mega-Christmas in March would've stuffed the coffers of Waitrose to bursting point, so the group as a whole will have some breathing time to think about restructuring at the end of all of this.Cyclefree said:
It’s not the travel that needs to be stopped (or not just that) but the gathering of people in close proximity. A JL store is like a pub or restaurant writ large - not much social distancing possible. And if you can get the colander online why travel in?Mortimer said:
But the incentive is to stop non essential travel.kinabalu said:
This is a possible example of the "gaming" of Sunak's package that I posted about earlier.Scott_xP said:
JL can place employees "on furlough" and pay 20% of wages instead of 100%.
They can do this even if without the package they were not going to fire people at this point.
Employees travelling to Peter Jones is not essential
People wanting a new colander is not essential.
What you call 'gaming' is the system working....
Plus, JL are struggling at the moment. I wouldn't have been surprised if those who were in shops and had less than 2 years under their belt would have been made redundant when shops were closed.
I wonder how many of their stores will reopen once this is over.0 -
Maybe we should rethink our position on the EU 800,000?Stocky said:
That John Lewis decision is going to cost the taxpayer a fortune. Bet they wouldn`t have done that without the Sunak deal.kinabalu said:
This is a possible example of the "gaming" of Sunak's package that I posted about earlier.Scott_xP said:
JL can place employees "on furlough" and pay 20% of wages instead of 100%.
They can do this even if without the package they were not going to fire people at this point.
Kinabalu, I hadn`t realised that companies have to pay the 20%. I assumed that the employee got "just" 80% from the government because it allowed for a 20% income tax deduction. Are you sure?0 -
Not all businesses are suffering. Try buying home gym equipment.0
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OK guys,
Much more important than CV-19.
We watched Clueless last night. It's a quarter century old, and Paul Rudd is in it.
And Paul Rudd looks exactly the same age now as then. Is that not creepy? Why has no-one noticed this? Is he some kind of alien?0 -
Yes I was just pulling your chain, some of them take it way over the top, a bit of chit chat whilst sorting out the shopping is fine but in M&S some of them do blether on for ages. I try to keep calm about it but it can get annoying.Stocky said:
Malc, I get your point and agree to some extent. I`m not bereft of kindness. But bear in mind that if one engages in small-talk with the person serving you (in a supermarket or anywhere else) in full knowledge that there is a queue of people waiting to be served this in itself is really impolite behaviour.malcolmg said:
Another one bereft of the milk of human kindness, a poor old lady taking her only opportunity of the week to have a minutes chat and you dreaming of beating up the poor old soul.kinabalu said:
That drives me nuts. When it happens - and particularly if the person in front of me doing the chatting is a little old lady - I always have a strong urge to deliver a poleaxing rabbit punch.Stocky said:To be fair, it`s very annoying when in a supermarket queue the till person is engaging in small-talk with the person in front.
To my great credit, however, I have never done so and I'm reasonably confident I never will.
#morethatunites
So a bit of wrongness on both sides, can we agree?0 -
That makes about 4,000 Covid-19 deaths in Italy so far. For reference the average number of excess deaths from flu in Italy has been about 15,000 a year.Big_G_NorthWales said:546 deaths in Italy today
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285
This article also says: "Italy showed a higher influenza attributable excess mortality compared to other European countries. especially in the elderly."0 -
Could a cohort of people who have tested positive for COVID-19 administer the tests without the need for. PPE. It might make it far faster.1
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It requires those people to be traceable and for them to religiously self-isolate.rcs1000 said:
The South Korean regime is about:williamglenn said:
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.rcs1000 said:Here's an interesting piece of research from the New England Complex Systems Institute on the much quoted Imperial research piece.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
- having people report symptoms early
- testing people in and around those who test positive
Now, I can see that not working in places with no healthcare. And I can see that we lack the testing infrastucture (currently) do do that.
But it doesn't seem to need any societal change.0 -
Phew - I`m glad you are not cross with me - what with your famously irascible nature and all.malcolmg said:
Yes I was just pulling your chain, some of them take it way over the top, a bit of chit chat whilst sorting out the shopping is fine but in M&S some of them do blether on for ages. I try to keep calm about it but it can get annoying.Stocky said:
Malc, I get your point and agree to some extent. I`m not bereft of kindness. But bear in mind that if one engages in small-talk with the person serving you (in a supermarket or anywhere else) in full knowledge that there is a queue of people waiting to be served this in itself is really impolite behaviour.malcolmg said:
Another one bereft of the milk of human kindness, a poor old lady taking her only opportunity of the week to have a minutes chat and you dreaming of beating up the poor old soul.kinabalu said:
That drives me nuts. When it happens - and particularly if the person in front of me doing the chatting is a little old lady - I always have a strong urge to deliver a poleaxing rabbit punch.Stocky said:To be fair, it`s very annoying when in a supermarket queue the till person is engaging in small-talk with the person in front.
To my great credit, however, I have never done so and I'm reasonably confident I never will.
#morethatunites
So a bit of wrongness on both sides, can we agree?0 -
Sheesh.... Poor buggers.malcolmg said:
Was similar in newspaper article, it was Lombardy, rows and rows of coffins etcMarqueeMark said:
Where was this?FrancisUrquhart said:They had a report from an ICU department on Sky yesterday, and they said in 2 weeks only 1 individual has made any progress towards recovery. Every single other patient has either died or in the same state as they were days / weeks ago.
The worst thing is going to be if something really simple does actually massively alter people's trajectory.0 -
Yes the taxpayer is on the hook now rather than the shareholders.kinabalu said:
This is a possible example of the "gaming" of Sunak's package that I posted about earlier.Scott_xP said:
JL can place employees "on furlough" and pay 20% of wages instead of 100%.
They can do this even if without the package they were not going to fire people at this point.1 -
The traceable issue is the same here as in Korea. They too have ridiculously busy public transport (if anything worse than the tube).williamglenn said:
It requires those people to be traceable and for them to religiously self-isolate.rcs1000 said:
The South Korean regime is about:williamglenn said:
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.rcs1000 said:Here's an interesting piece of research from the New England Complex Systems Institute on the much quoted Imperial research piece.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
- having people report symptoms early
- testing people in and around those who test positive
Now, I can see that not working in places with no healthcare. And I can see that we lack the testing infrastucture (currently) do do that.
But it doesn't seem to need any societal change.
Regarding self isolation, surely the simple answer is to make it pay to self isolate.0 -
I think that is overstating the case a little, but he’s certainly aged better than Ms Silverstone.rcs1000 said:OK guys,
Much more important than CV-19.
We watched Clueless last night. It's a quarter century old, and Paul Rudd is in it.
And Paul Rudd looks exactly the same age now as then. Is that not creepy? Why has no-one noticed this? Is he some kind of alien?0 -
Then you create a financial incentive for people who are unable to work to contract the virus.rcs1000 said:
The traceable issue is the same here as in Korea. They too have ridiculously busy public transport (if anything worse than the tube).williamglenn said:
It requires those people to be traceable and for them to religiously self-isolate.rcs1000 said:
The South Korean regime is about:williamglenn said:
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.rcs1000 said:Here's an interesting piece of research from the New England Complex Systems Institute on the much quoted Imperial research piece.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
- having people report symptoms early
- testing people in and around those who test positive
Now, I can see that not working in places with no healthcare. And I can see that we lack the testing infrastucture (currently) do do that.
But it doesn't seem to need any societal change.
Regarding self isolation, surely the simple answer is to make it pay to self isolate.0 -
Exactly the point I'm making. The package will probably trigger a ton of closures of all sorts of businesses who otherwise would probably have struggled on in some fashion for a period. It makes the decision to close for 3 months a no-brainer.Stocky said:That John Lewis decision is going to cost the taxpayer a fortune. Bet they wouldn`t have done that without the Sunak deal.
Kinabalu, I hadn`t realised that companies have to pay the 20%. I assumed that the employee got "just" 80% from the government because it allowed for a 20% income tax deduction. Are you sure?
As for the 20%, AIUI that is optional. The government pays 80% and encourages the company to top it up so the employee loses nothing.1 -
Seems an odd choice of shaving equipment. Glad you’re still in one piece.SandyRentool said:
I survived a session with a Stanley knife earlier.MarqueeMark said:
I think the people at greatest risk are those amateurs out and about with secateurs....rcs1000 said:Good morning all. I hope everyone is keeping safe.
I have now adopted the use of a stress ball to avoid touching my face.0 -
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Not worrying at all:
https://twitter.com/balazscseko/status/12412724471874191370 -
Any good news on all this today? I need some.0
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So, Korea doesn't have people who are unemployable?williamglenn said:
Then you create a financial incentive for people who are unable to work to contract the virus.rcs1000 said:
The traceable issue is the same here as in Korea. They too have ridiculously busy public transport (if anything worse than the tube).williamglenn said:
It requires those people to be traceable and for them to religiously self-isolate.rcs1000 said:
The South Korean regime is about:williamglenn said:
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.rcs1000 said:Here's an interesting piece of research from the New England Complex Systems Institute on the much quoted Imperial research piece.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
- having people report symptoms early
- testing people in and around those who test positive
Now, I can see that not working in places with no healthcare. And I can see that we lack the testing infrastucture (currently) do do that.
But it doesn't seem to need any societal change.
Regarding self isolation, surely the simple answer is to make it pay to self isolate.
And they get - what - two weeks of sick pay. Doesn't seem that much on an incentive. But maybe you know more unemployable people than me.0 -
Stocky said:
Phew - I`m glad you are not cross with me - what with your famously irascible nature and all.malcolmg said:
Yes I was just pulling your chain, some of them take it way over the top, a bit of chit chat whilst sorting out the shopping is fine but in M&S some of them do blether on for ages. I try to keep calm about it but it can get annoying.Stocky said:
Malc, I get your point and agree to some extent. I`m not bereft of kindness. But bear in mind that if one engages in small-talk with the person serving you (in a supermarket or anywhere else) in full knowledge that there is a queue of people waiting to be served this in itself is really impolite behaviour.malcolmg said:
Another one bereft of the milk of human kindness, a poor old lady taking her only opportunity of the week to have a minutes chat and you dreaming of beating up the poor old soul.kinabalu said:
That drives me nuts. When it happens - and particularly if the person in front of me doing the chatting is a little old lady - I always have a strong urge to deliver a poleaxing rabbit punch.Stocky said:To be fair, it`s very annoying when in a supermarket queue the till person is engaging in small-talk with the person in front.
To my great credit, however, I have never done so and I'm reasonably confident I never will.
#morethatunites
So a bit of wrongness on both sides, can we agree?
I am a big teddy bear really 1 -
I think it’s a lot easier to trace people in Korea.rcs1000 said:
The traceable issue is the same here as in Korea. They too have ridiculously busy public transport (if anything worse than the tube).williamglenn said:
It requires those people to be traceable and for them to religiously self-isolate.rcs1000 said:
The South Korean regime is about:williamglenn said:
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.rcs1000 said:Here's an interesting piece of research from the New England Complex Systems Institute on the much quoted Imperial research piece.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
- having people report symptoms early
- testing people in and around those who test positive
Now, I can see that not working in places with no healthcare. And I can see that we lack the testing infrastucture (currently) do do that.
But it doesn't seem to need any societal change.
Regarding self isolation, surely the simple answer is to make it pay to self isolate.
Partly because they more or less skipped the PC phase of tech and went straight to mobile phone apps.
0 -
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Well, she is a vegan.Nigelb said:
I think that is overstating the case a little, but he’s certainly aged better than Ms Silverstone.rcs1000 said:OK guys,
Much more important than CV-19.
We watched Clueless last night. It's a quarter century old, and Paul Rudd is in it.
And Paul Rudd looks exactly the same age now as then. Is that not creepy? Why has no-one noticed this? Is he some kind of alien?0 -
I’m sure that will never be extended. Nothing to worry about.Gabs3 said:Not worrying at all:
https://twitter.com/balazscseko/status/12412724471874191370 -
Paul Rudd and Keanu Reeves are both in pacts with the devil.Nigelb said:
I think that is overstating the case a little, but he’s certainly aged better than Ms Silverstone.rcs1000 said:OK guys,
Much more important than CV-19.
We watched Clueless last night. It's a quarter century old, and Paul Rudd is in it.
And Paul Rudd looks exactly the same age now as then. Is that not creepy? Why has no-one noticed this? Is he some kind of alien?0 -
https://twitter.com/vulture/status/315211827200008192?s=20rcs1000 said:OK guys,
Much more important than CV-19.
We watched Clueless last night. It's a quarter century old, and Paul Rudd is in it.
And Paul Rudd looks exactly the same age now as then. Is that not creepy? Why has no-one noticed this? Is he some kind of alien?0 -
0
-
BTW, are official Italian numbers out? The Wikipedia page with all the details on it is not updated yet.
Deaths, while horrendous, are also a trailing indicator. I'm more interested in:
(a) infections by region
(b) number of tests being adminsitered
0 -
That is right in principle and (probably) also right for the majority of cases. However there is room for abuse. Example -RobD said:Surely protecting struggling businesses is the whole point of the package? I don't see how this is anything but working as intended.
Company with staff WFH that has a balance sheet strong enough to ride this out for quite some time.
Change the status of those staff from WFH (due to crisis) to On Furlough (due to crisis).
80% please.0 -
sounded grim , and no family service etc , it was straight to crematorium, previously no family allowed in whilst ill etc.MarqueeMark said:
Sheesh.... Poor buggers.malcolmg said:
Was similar in newspaper article, it was Lombardy, rows and rows of coffins etcMarqueeMark said:
Where was this?FrancisUrquhart said:They had a report from an ICU department on Sky yesterday, and they said in 2 weeks only 1 individual has made any progress towards recovery. Every single other patient has either died or in the same state as they were days / weeks ago.
The worst thing is going to be if something really simple does actually massively alter people's trajectory.0 -
BrilliantScott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/vulture/status/315211827200008192?s=20rcs1000 said:OK guys,
Much more important than CV-19.
We watched Clueless last night. It's a quarter century old, and Paul Rudd is in it.
And Paul Rudd looks exactly the same age now as then. Is that not creepy? Why has no-one noticed this? Is he some kind of alien?0 -
Just ordered a Peloton! I'm told it will arrive April 2nd. I won't be shocked if it doesn't...AlastairMeeks said:Not all businesses are suffering. Try buying home gym equipment.
0 -
I don't have a fridge in my attic. Relying on leaving my UHT milk on the roof...FrancisUrquhart said:Also, am I the only one on the UHT milk...that stuff is bloody disgusting on its own...
0 -
Thanks, that answers a query I raised earlier.Barnesian said:
That makes about 4,000 Covid-19 deaths in Italy so far. For reference the average number of excess deaths from flu in Italy has been about 15,000 a year.Big_G_NorthWales said:546 deaths in Italy today
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285
This article also says: "Italy showed a higher influenza attributable excess mortality compared to other European countries. especially in the elderly."0 -
Just as well they have a selfless humanitarian running the show.Gallowgate said:
I’m sure that will never be extended. Nothing to worry about.Gabs3 said:Not worrying at all:
https://twitter.com/balazscseko/status/12412724471874191370 -
We've got 8 fantastic days of weather ahead. Plenty of time to grab a few cold drinks and sunbathe.rottenborough said:Any good news on all this today? I need some.
0 -
I don't think people make a lot of pasta in normal times. They are panic buying before they think they ought to be making it.Andy_JS said:Regarding panic buying, it occurs to me that it might not necessarily be caused by some people buying large quantities of the same items. If a shop has 500 packets of pasta you only need a relatively small number of people in a densely-populated area to buy two or three packets for it to run out, even if no-one selfishly buys 10 packets.
0 -
Indeed. IMO anyone worried about biz gaming the system doesn't understand the likely economic implications of this current crisis.RobD said:
Surely protecting struggling businesses is the whole point of the package? I don't see how this is anything but working as intended.kinabalu said:
But the point applies equally to businesses that do not cause the public to travel. It could be any business that is struggling but would not be laying off people right now. For example, the business could have people WFH - OK, now change their designation from WFH Due To Crisis to On Furlough Due To Crisis. That unlocks the 80%.Mortimer said:But the incentive is there to stop non essential travel AND not make redundancies.
Employees travelling to Peter Jones is not essential
People wanting a new colander is not essential.
What you call 'gaming' is the system working....
Plus, JL are struggling at the moment. I wouldn't have been surprised if those who were in shops and had less than 2 years under their belt would have been made redundant when shops were closed.
I put "gaming" in inverteds because all of this is probably priced in by the authors of the package.0 -
Will this weather kill this evil virus? Here's hoping.Chameleon said:
We've got 8 fantastic days of weather ahead. Plenty of time to grab a few cold drinks and sunbathe.rottenborough said:Any good news on all this today? I need some.
0 -
I think everyone has a smartphone in the UK.Nigelb said:
I think it’s a lot easier to trace people in Korea.rcs1000 said:
The traceable issue is the same here as in Korea. They too have ridiculously busy public transport (if anything worse than the tube).williamglenn said:
It requires those people to be traceable and for them to religiously self-isolate.rcs1000 said:
The South Korean regime is about:williamglenn said:
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.rcs1000 said:Here's an interesting piece of research from the New England Complex Systems Institute on the much quoted Imperial research piece.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
- having people report symptoms early
- testing people in and around those who test positive
Now, I can see that not working in places with no healthcare. And I can see that we lack the testing infrastucture (currently) do do that.
But it doesn't seem to need any societal change.
Regarding self isolation, surely the simple answer is to make it pay to self isolate.
Partly because they more or less skipped the PC phase of tech and went straight to mobile phone apps.
The idea is fundamentally not that complex.
You get people to report the very earliest symptoms. You get them tested within an hour or reporting in. If they test positive, you contact (and test) the 100 people they've been most likely to be in contact with.
Now, it might be *harder* in the UK. And it certainly requires us to have infrastructure we don't right now. And maybe we might want to have the flexibility to do local lockdowns if necessary.
But it doesn't require any great societal change. It just requires the government to have a large testing organisation with thousands of employees and the ability to do tests very quickly. It also requires that the "base" level of infection is less than 50 or 100 people a day, so that you have the resources to do it.0 -
The magazine owned by those tax evading weirdos suddenly has a conscience?rottenborough said:1 -
The USA numbers are getting pretty scary now - they're about a week out from having more cases than even China.0
-
How would it work in a place like California where undocumented migrants do much of the work like cleaning, gardening, home improvements, etc?rcs1000 said:
So, Korea doesn't have people who are unemployable?williamglenn said:
Then you create a financial incentive for people who are unable to work to contract the virus.rcs1000 said:
The traceable issue is the same here as in Korea. They too have ridiculously busy public transport (if anything worse than the tube).williamglenn said:
It requires those people to be traceable and for them to religiously self-isolate.rcs1000 said:
The South Korean regime is about:williamglenn said:
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.rcs1000 said:Here's an interesting piece of research from the New England Complex Systems Institute on the much quoted Imperial research piece.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
- having people report symptoms early
- testing people in and around those who test positive
Now, I can see that not working in places with no healthcare. And I can see that we lack the testing infrastucture (currently) do do that.
But it doesn't seem to need any societal change.
Regarding self isolation, surely the simple answer is to make it pay to self isolate.
And they get - what - two weeks of sick pay. Doesn't seem that much on an incentive. But maybe you know more unemployable people than me.0 -
0
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Covid-19 has caused the Martians to put their invasion plans on hold.....rottenborough said:Any good news on all this today? I need some.
4 -
Now is not the time.IanB2 said:
The magazine owned by those tax evading weirdos suddenly has a conscience?rottenborough said:0 -
It would be much harder to implement in the US.williamglenn said:
How would it work in a place like California where undocumented migrants do much of the work like cleaning, gardening, home improvements, etc?rcs1000 said:
So, Korea doesn't have people who are unemployable?williamglenn said:
Then you create a financial incentive for people who are unable to work to contract the virus.rcs1000 said:
The traceable issue is the same here as in Korea. They too have ridiculously busy public transport (if anything worse than the tube).williamglenn said:
It requires those people to be traceable and for them to religiously self-isolate.rcs1000 said:
The South Korean regime is about:williamglenn said:
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.rcs1000 said:Here's an interesting piece of research from the New England Complex Systems Institute on the much quoted Imperial research piece.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
- having people report symptoms early
- testing people in and around those who test positive
Now, I can see that not working in places with no healthcare. And I can see that we lack the testing infrastucture (currently) do do that.
But it doesn't seem to need any societal change.
Regarding self isolation, surely the simple answer is to make it pay to self isolate.
And they get - what - two weeks of sick pay. Doesn't seem that much on an incentive. But maybe you know more unemployable people than me.0 -
Yes. But I think that previous payroll history would be key. So he could only claim 80% of what he had been paying himself, not 80% of what he suddenly decides he ought to be paying himself (or only started paying himself about now, having learnt of the package). Because if it's the latter it's a Rogues Charter.Stocky said:Yes, that`s how I see it.
Thinking smaller scale, a director of his own ltd company, set up to accommodate only himself/herself as the sole employee, can put himself/herself on furlough and claim the money (whilst possible actually carrying on working to some extent).0 -
Is that the one where you get stung for 40 quid a month so you can pretend you are cycling with a bunch of freaks and some whiny bint prattles on in a high pitched squeaky voiceMortimer said:
Just ordered a Peloton! I'm told it will arrive April 2nd. I won't be shocked if it doesn't...AlastairMeeks said:Not all businesses are suffering. Try buying home gym equipment.
2 -
Eh?rottenborough said:A chilling tweet...
https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1241402681161179142
"Staff will receive free burials when it's over" would be a lot more chilling.
At least it assumes staff will be alive at the end of this process.3 -
546 deaths in Lombardy alone since yesterday.
Italian national update will be devasting0 -
Barstewards we eat it often and cannot get any.FF43 said:
I don't think people make a lot of pasta in normal times. They are panic buying before they think they ought to be making it.Andy_JS said:Regarding panic buying, it occurs to me that it might not necessarily be caused by some people buying large quantities of the same items. If a shop has 500 packets of pasta you only need a relatively small number of people in a densely-populated area to buy two or three packets for it to run out, even if no-one selfishly buys 10 packets.
0 -
Ample supply of pineapple pizzas reported through the country.rottenborough said:Any good news on all this today? I need some.
2 -
I thought you were talking about the Guardian for a momentIanB2 said:
The magazine owned by those tax evading weirdos suddenly has a conscience?rottenborough said:0 -
Bit like stock market at some point it will happen and they then forget they have been whinging about it for 10 years.rottenborough said:0 -
Asda hasd stock of most things just now and nicely empty of peopleRobD said:
Ample supply of pineapple pizzas reported through the country.rottenborough said:Any good news on all this today? I need some.
0 -
That's not chilling. That's common sense. They're going to be working flat out in extremely challenging conditions and witnessing a lot of suffering. While they're in it, they'll probably be coping. They will need a lot of support during it but more so afterwards.rottenborough said:A chilling tweet...
https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1241402681161179142
1 -
You're starting to sound a bit like HYUFD, lately.rcs1000 said:
Eh?rottenborough said:A chilling tweet...
https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1241402681161179142
"Staff will receive free burials when it's over" would be a lot more chilling.
At least it assumes staff will be alive at the end of this process.0 -
It truly is appalling.AndreaParma_82 said:546 deaths in Lombardy alone since yesterday.
Italian national update will be devasting
Stay safe3 -
Take that back right now!!!!! :-)matthiasfromhamburg said:
You're starting to sound a bit like HYUFD, lately.rcs1000 said:
Eh?rottenborough said:A chilling tweet...
https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1241402681161179142
"Staff will receive free burials when it's over" would be a lot more chilling.
At least it assumes staff will be alive at the end of this process.0 -
Agreed. It’s simply that Korea had a lot of those systems already available for government to use.rcs1000 said:
I think everyone has a smartphone in the UK.Nigelb said:
I think it’s a lot easier to trace people in Korea.rcs1000 said:
The traceable issue is the same here as in Korea. They too have ridiculously busy public transport (if anything worse than the tube).williamglenn said:
It requires those people to be traceable and for them to religiously self-isolate.rcs1000 said:
The South Korean regime is about:williamglenn said:
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.rcs1000 said:Here's an interesting piece of research from the New England Complex Systems Institute on the much quoted Imperial research piece.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
- having people report symptoms early
- testing people in and around those who test positive
Now, I can see that not working in places with no healthcare. And I can see that we lack the testing infrastucture (currently) do do that.
But it doesn't seem to need any societal change.
Regarding self isolation, surely the simple answer is to make it pay to self isolate.
Partly because they more or less skipped the PC phase of tech and went straight to mobile phone apps.
The idea is fundamentally not that complex.
You get people to report the very earliest symptoms. You get them tested within an hour or reporting in. If they test positive, you contact (and test) the 100 people they've been most likely to be in contact with.
Now, it might be *harder* in the UK. And it certainly requires us to have infrastructure we don't right now. And maybe we might want to have the flexibility to do local lockdowns if necessary.
But it doesn't require any great societal change. It just requires the government to have a large testing organisation with thousands of employees and the ability to do tests very quickly. It also requires that the "base" level of infection is less than 50 or 100 people a day, so that you have the resources to do it.
And lacked the sort of privacy laws which prevented it happening without legislation; further, had ready made systems in place thanks to their experience of SARS -
https://www.lawfareblog.com/lessons-america-how-south-korean-authorities-used-law-fight-coronavirus
Yes, we could do this stuff, but at the moment, we’ve just been scrambling to keep pace with events.0 -
Health officials in New York City and Los Angeles County are signaling a change in local strategy when it comes to coronavirus testing, recommending that doctors avoid testing patients except in cases where a test result would significantly change the course of treatment.0
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Very sensible.rottenborough said:J Lewis not about staffing costs:
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/12413957556901355520
