Currently positive:: 42.681 (+4.821 net) including UCI 2.857 (+202 net) Deaths: 4.825 (+793) Healed: 6.072 (+943)
So 6557 new cases
Do you know how many tests there were yesterday?
Total this evening is 233,222 It was 206,866 yesterday
Long time lurker, rather nervously typing....
This means the fraction of positive cases has remained constant the last couple of days, right? Also, the number of tests in Lombardy doubled in the last 24h (from 4931 to 9555), meaning the fraction of positive tests there actually fell from 50% to 33%.
JM1?
Nope - afraid not!! Just a boring long time lurker
This means the fraction of positive cases has remained constant the last couple of days, right?
The positive% each day is climbing but not too steeply. Start of the month it was 20%ish, now it's maybe 27%ish (during which period the number of daily tests has increased near ten-fold).
For comparison, the UK figure is maybe around 10% now. Spain's is over 50%.
50% of those tested? The % day on day increase has dropped a bit today for the first time
I have found a packet of unopened spaghetti in the cupboard, use by dated 2014.
At what price should I start the bidding?
I can beat that. I have a packet of Lasagne best by 2006 and another use by 2009. I'm working backwards from one dated 2016 which I cooked and ate two days ago. Delicious.
A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.
That will no doubt cover most scenarios. I'm not saying otherwise. I'm postulating a couple of other scenarios that will probably also occur.
1. A business that would have struggled on for a while without the package decides instead to close now for at least 3 months.
2. A business not struggling that has people WFH due to the crisis re-designates them as being on furlough due to the crisis, thus unlocking the 80%
Yes?
As for 1, sonds plausable, for 2, I don't know what enforcement will look like, but furloughed workers can't perform any work under the guidance that will be supplimented by detail on Monday
I have found a packet of unopened spaghetti in the cupboard, use by dated 2014.
At what price should I start the bidding?
I can beat that. I have a packet of Lasagne best by 2006 and another use by 2009. I'm working backwards from one dated 2016 which I cooked and ate two days ago. Delicious.
I’m amazed by how many are going in the largest supermarkets where social distancing is impossible. Largest shop in town centre where I am is Waitrose. Jam packed. Reasonably sized Tesco Metro two minutes away. Relatively empty and no queues at tills. Some shortages (as there are everywhere) but more than enough to do a decent shop.
That's a very good point and one I've been thinking about. I'm in Central London (epicentre!) and I'm pretty much holed up with one exception - going to an often packed Waitrose.
50% of those tested? The % day on day increase has dropped a bit today for the first time
Yeah, according to El Pais they were at 30k total tests, at least some time before the 18th. Looking a bit closer, I suppose that figure could be 2 or 3 days old, in which case the %positives might be as low as 30%.
Guess that means they are only testing really sick people, perhaps already hospitalised?
From Italy, one big negative out of today's numbers, and two small positives.
The big negative is new cases continue to climb in Lombardy and Veneto, despite those being the earliest places to implement lockdowns. Lombardy saw (if my nunbers are correct, which they may not ne) 3,251 new cases which is 50% above the pace of the last few days. Veneto increased 586 new cases, which is a small increase from 547 the previous day.
The small positives are:
- across all of Italy we continued to see a gentle slowing in the number infected. It increased 14% from the previous day. This has been gradually trending down over the past two weeks from the 30s. But, of course, off much bigger bases each time.
- at least some of the increase in infections is due to the Italians doing much, much more testing. In the last two days, the number tested has risen from (and again excuse my maths here) 17,000 to 33,000. This means the proportion testing positive has gone from 30% to 20%.
I do wonder if total lockdowns have the potential to be counterproductive, at least in the short term. Because it basically ensures that (especially in small flats) whole families/groups living together will be infected whereas before they may have previously had a fair level of distancing and/or non operation of “common” hours etc
Yes, but at least this process is relatively quick.
They've closed the stores because they don't have any customers.
Admitted JLP is not quite like other companies, but they wouldn't keep staff (sorry: "partners") for long if they didn't have the revenue to pay them
It's more like that it's an example of Sunak's policy working.
Maybe they were going to close on Monday with or without the package. That is possible. I did say that JL was only a possible example of what I'm saying.
But you do get my general points, I'm sure -
1. The package will make closing a no-brainer decision for some businesses that otherwise would have struggled on for a while.
2. There is scope for abuse by businesses that are not seriously struggling.
And to be clear, I raise this purely for interest, not because I oppose the package.
A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.
I imagine John Lewis are shifting a lot of staff to Waitrose.
Also, whilst I have great sympathy for the situation many self employed find themselves in, there are companies (most obviously supermarkets) creating jobs that people can apply for. They shouldn’t just expect the Govt to solve everything. God knows what the Govt does if there’s a repeat of what is happening now in winter.
Yes they are. Waitrose Cowbridge on Thursday was being manned largely by staff from John Lewis Cardiff store. Does that mean the part-timers at Waitrose have been let go?
Not happy with Government's self employed response. Too difficult to administer I understand- so we can go hang? Why not a fixed or sliding rate paid directly based on the last completed self- assessment? There will be a lot of tax- paying plumbers, builders and hairdressers going hungry over the next few months. Just a reminder they are predominantly Conservative voters!
I also understand the idea of a fixed income for everyone during the crisis had the kybosh put on it by IDS's intervention. It was a disincentive to work apparantly, and would undermine his super universal credit scheme. What a guy!
As for 1, sonds plausable, for 2, I don't know what enforcement will look like, but furloughed workers can't perform any work under the guidance that will be supplimented by detail on Monday
Right.
So where I see this happening is where the WFHs are white collar types doing stuff that really is not essential or significant value added. Emails, meetings, this and that. You know the sort of job I mean. There are loads of them.
From Italy, one big negative out of today's numbers, and two small positives.
The big negative is new cases continue to climb in Lombardy and Veneto, despite those being the earliest places to implement lockdowns. Lombardy saw (if my nunbers are correct, which they may not ne) 3,251 new cases which is 50% above the pace of the last few days. Veneto increased 586 new cases, which is a small increase from 547 the previous day.
The small positives are:
- across all of Italy we continued to see a gentle slowing in the number infected. It increased 14% from the previous day. This has been gradually trending down over the past two weeks from the 30s. But, of course, off much bigger bases each time.
- at least some of the increase in infections is due to the Italians doing much, much more testing. In the last two days, the number tested has risen from (and again excuse my maths here) 17,000 to 33,000. This means the proportion testing positive has gone from 30% to 20%.
I do wonder if total lockdowns have the potential to be counterproductive, at least in the short term. Because it basically ensures that (especially in small flats) whole families/groups living together will be infected whereas before they may have previously had a fair level of distancing and/or non operation of “common” hours etc
Yes, but at least this process is relatively quick.
But it might explain why numbers keep climbing. In China it’s possible they haven’t found all the bodies yet...
They've closed the stores because they don't have any customers.
Admitted JLP is not quite like other companies, but they wouldn't keep staff (sorry: "partners") for long if they didn't have the revenue to pay them
It's more like that it's an example of Sunak's policy working.
Maybe they were going to close on Monday with or without the package. That is possible. I did say that JL was only a possible example of what I'm saying.
But you do get my general points, I'm sure -
1. The package will make closing a no-brainer decision for some businesses that otherwise would have struggled on for a while.
2. There is scope for abuse by businesses that are not seriously struggling.
And to be clear, I raise this purely for interest, not because I oppose the package.
A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.
I imagine John Lewis are shifting a lot of staff to Waitrose.
Also, whilst I have great sympathy for the situation many self employed find themselves in, there are companies (most obviously supermarkets) creating jobs that people can apply for. They shouldn’t just expect the Govt to solve everything. God knows what the Govt does if there’s a repeat of what is happening now in winter.
Yes they are. Waitrose Cowbridge on Thursday was being manned largely by staff from John Lewis Cardiff store. Does that mean the part-timers at Waitrose have been let go?
Not happy with Government's self employed response. Too difficult to administer I understand- so we can go hang? Why not a fixed or sliding rate paid directly based on the last completed self- assessment? There will be a lot of tax- paying plumbers, builders and hairdressers going hungry over the next few months. Just a reminder they are predominantly Conservative voters!
I also understand the idea of a fixed income for everyone during the crisis had the kybosh put on it by IDS's intervention. It was a disincentive to work apparantly, and would undermine his super universal credit scheme. What a guy!
Link to your final paragraph please or is a random piece of fiction
Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease?
"What we know so far about the coronavirus makes it a unique case for the potential application of a “herd immunity” approach, a strategy viewed as a desirable side effect in the Netherlands, and briefly considered in the United Kingdom."
"The data from South Korea, where tracking the coronavirus has been by far the best to date, indicate that as much as 99 percent of active cases in the general population are “mild” and do not require specific medical treatment."
I also understand the idea of a fixed income for everyone during the crisis had the kybosh put on it by IDS's intervention. It was a disincentive to work apparantly, and would undermine his super universal credit scheme. What a guy!
Also, am I the only one on the UHT milk...that stuff is bloody disgusting on its own...
I don't have a fridge in my attic. Relying on leaving my UHT milk on the roof...
I order UHT milk to make yoghurt with. Because it's been heated more than standard pasteurised milk, you just have to mix a bit of live yoghurt with it, put it in the yoghurt maker overnight, and you're away. Wouldn't drink the stuff on its own if I could help it. Yucky stuff and worse for you than normal pasteurised.
I also understand the idea of a fixed income for everyone during the crisis had the kybosh put on it by IDS's intervention. It was a disincentive to work apparantly, and would undermine his super universal credit scheme. What a guy!
They've closed the stores because they don't have any customers.
Admitted JLP is not quite like other companies, but they wouldn't keep staff (sorry: "partners") for long if they didn't have the revenue to pay them
It's more like that it's an example of Sunak's policy working.
Maybe they were going to close on Monday with or without the package. That is possible. I did say that JL was only a possible example of what I'm saying.
But you do get my general points, I'm sure -
1. The package will make closing a no-brainer decision for some businesses that otherwise would have struggled on for a while.
2. There is scope for abuse by businesses that are not seriously struggling.
And to be clear, I raise this purely for interest, not because I oppose the package.
A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.
I imagine John Lewis are shifting a lot of staff to Waitrose.
Also, whilst I have great sympathy for the situation many self employed find themselves in, there are companies (most obviously supermarkets) creating jobs that people can apply for. They shouldn’t just expect the Govt to solve everything. God knows what the Govt does if there’s a repeat of what is happening now in winter.
Yes they are. Waitrose Cowbridge on Thursday was being manned largely by staff from John Lewis Cardiff store. Does that mean the part-timers at Waitrose have been let go?
Not happy with Government's self employed response. Too difficult to administer I understand- so we can go hang? Why not a fixed or sliding rate paid directly based on the last completed self- assessment? There will be a lot of tax- paying plumbers, builders and hairdressers going hungry over the next few months. Just a reminder they are predominantly Conservative voters!
I also understand the idea of a fixed income for everyone during the crisis had the kybosh put on it by IDS's intervention. It was a disincentive to work apparantly, and would undermine his super universal credit scheme. What a guy!
Link to your final paragraph please or is a random piece of fiction
Independent 2 days ago. Iain Duncan Smith says Don't bring in universal income...it will be a 'disincentive to work'!
They've closed the stores because they don't have any customers.
Admitted JLP is not quite like other companies, but they wouldn't keep staff (sorry: "partners") for long if they didn't have the revenue to pay them
It's more like that it's an example of Sunak's policy working.
Maybe they were going to close on Monday with or without the package. That is possible. I did say that JL was only a possible example of what I'm saying.
But you do get my general points, I'm sure -
1. The package will make closing a no-brainer decision for some businesses that otherwise would have struggled on for a while.
2. There is scope for abuse by businesses that are not seriously struggling.
And to be clear, I raise this purely for interest, not because I oppose the package.
A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.
I imagine John Lewis are shifting a lot of staff to Waitrose.
Also, whilst I have great sympathy for the situation many self employed find themselves in, there are companies (most obviously supermarkets) creating jobs that people can apply for. They shouldn’t just expect the Govt to solve everything. God knows what the Govt does if there’s a repeat of what is happening now in winter.
Yes they are. Waitrose Cowbridge on Thursday was being manned largely by staff from John Lewis Cardiff store. Does that mean the part-timers at Waitrose have been let go?
Not happy with Government's self employed response. Too difficult to administer I understand- so we can go hang? Why not a fixed or sliding rate paid directly based on the last completed self- assessment? There will be a lot of tax- paying plumbers, builders and hairdressers going hungry over the next few months. Just a reminder they are predominantly Conservative voters!
I also understand the idea of a fixed income for everyone during the crisis had the kybosh put on it by IDS's intervention. It was a disincentive to work apparantly, and would undermine his super universal credit scheme. What a guy!
Link to your final paragraph please or is a random piece of fiction
Independent 2 days ago. Iain Duncan Smith says Don't bring in universal income...it will be a 'disincentive to work'!
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
Worth saying "New England Complex Systems Institute" means "Nassim Nicholas Taleb et al". FWIW, Yaneer Bar-Yam is a physicist and Chen Shen is a data scientist. None of the authors have an epidemiology background. This doesn't mean they are all wrong, or even mean that they might not be wrong in an interesting way, but that Imperial paper was written by some of the absolutely top guys in the field so you've got to say something pretty remarkably insightful if you're going to teach them to suck eggs.
I'm being biased here because I hate reading things in a smart-ass know-it-all tone, but I honestly can't see anything in there the Imperial team will get sleepless nights about getting things all wrong. The last line really ticked me off:
Where lives are at stake, it is essential for science to adhere to higher standards.
Immediately followed by a "list of references" that would look pants for a bachelors dissertation, let alone an academic journal article,,,
However, they make structural mistakes in analyzing outbreak response
Think this is a bit of an "all models are wrong, some models are useful" thing. Infectious disease modellers are aware of the pros and cons of larger vs simpler models (there are issues you get from trying to put too many "working parts" in) and often like to compare different models, especially between research groups who have structured their models differently (i.e. made a different set of stuctural assumptions, i.e. made a different set of structural errors...)
There's some bits that make me wonder if the authors are aware of the basics of how infectious disease models work ("They also don't specify whether achieving less than one case (extinction of the virus) is possible in their model" and "They ignore the possibility of superspreader events in gatherings by not including the fat tail distribution of contagion in their model" suggests the authors haven't grasped the difference between deterministic and stochastic models, which have different pros and cons. That the Imperial crew used a deterministic model which won't for technical reasons produce extinction results nor require the full probability distribution of spread events - something which is far harder to estimate than R0 and even that is tricky is enough! - is not a sign the eggheads all flushed their brains down the toilets before writing the research, these trade-offs between deterministic and stochastic models are absolutely well known. "The model they use appears to be in the general class of SIR differential equations used in epidemiology and is therefore not well suited for incorporating real world conditions at fine or large scale" - actually the "local" bit can be handled by including regional compartment, which also allows simulation of flows between regions and effect of regional lockdown, so this is something that could be investigated with a model of Imperial's type).
And then something that caused me to completely scratch my head...
... they consider new infections to be a function of infected fraction and immunity, and not influenced by where in the trajectory of the outbreak they are, distinguishing going up from going down.
What on earth is this criticism? Have I misread it? Or are Taleb and friends saying they think there's a kind of "momentum effect" in the population driving whether exposure to the virus leads to an infection event or a failure to infect? There are very good, and frankly biologically obvious, reasons why you would predict the number of new infections from the fraction who have the disease and are potentially active infectors, and how many of the potential infectees have immunity, as well as the contact rate between these groups. The idea that "momentum" plays a part is ... not in Infectious Disease Modelling 101.
Frankly there's much more I could say about the rest of it, and there's always the chance the authors are geniuses and I'm completely missing something, but I would recommend taking with a pinch of salt. Not even saying their conclusions are wrong, but am saying I don't think this paper should be seen as a more convincing reason to believe them.
They've closed the stores because they don't have any customers.
Admitted JLP is not quite like other companies, but they wouldn't keep staff (sorry: "partners") for long if they didn't have the revenue to pay them
It's more like that it's an example of Sunak's policy working.
Maybe they were going to close on Monday with or without the package. That is possible. I did say that JL was only a possible example of what I'm saying.
But you do get my general points, I'm sure -
1. The package will make closing a no-brainer decision for some businesses that otherwise would have struggled on for a while.
2. There is scope for abuse by businesses that are not seriously struggling.
And to be clear, I raise this purely for interest, not because I oppose the package.
A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.
I imagine John Lewis are shifting a lot of staff to Waitrose.
Also, whilst I have great sympathy for the situation many self employed find themselves in, there are companies (most obviously supermarkets) creating jobs that people can apply for. They shouldn’t just expect the Govt to solve everything. God knows what the Govt does if there’s a repeat of what is happening now in winter.
Yes they are. Waitrose Cowbridge on Thursday was being manned largely by staff from John Lewis Cardiff store. Does that mean the part-timers at Waitrose have been let go?
Not happy with Government's self employed response. Too difficult to administer I understand- so we can go hang? Why not a fixed or sliding rate paid directly based on the last completed self- assessment? There will be a lot of tax- paying plumbers, builders and hairdressers going hungry over the next few months. Just a reminder they are predominantly Conservative voters!
I also understand the idea of a fixed income for everyone during the crisis had the kybosh put on it by IDS's intervention. It was a disincentive to work apparantly, and would undermine his super universal credit scheme. What a guy!
Link to your final paragraph please or is a random piece of fiction
I like to extend general courtesies to your good self. You have accused me of lying! I may appear to be in 'princess' mode but I am genuinely insulted.
They've closed the stores because they don't have any customers.
Admitted JLP is not quite like other companies, but they wouldn't keep staff (sorry: "partners") for long if they didn't have the revenue to pay them
It's more like that it's an example of Sunak's policy working.
Maybe they were going to close on Monday with or without the package. That is possible. I did say that JL was only a possible example of what I'm saying.
But you do get my general points, I'm sure -
1. The package will make closing a no-brainer decision for some businesses that otherwise would have struggled on for a while.
2. There is scope for abuse by businesses that are not seriously struggling.
And to be clear, I raise this purely for interest, not because I oppose the package.
A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.
I imagine John Lewis are shifting a lot of staff to Waitrose.
Also, whilst I have great sympathy for the situation many self employed find themselves in, there are companies (most obviously supermarkets) creating jobs that people can apply for. They shouldn’t just expect the Govt to solve everything. God knows what the Govt does if there’s a repeat of what is happening now in winter.
Yes they are. Waitrose Cowbridge on Thursday was being manned largely by staff from John Lewis Cardiff store. Does that mean the part-timers at Waitrose have been let go?
Not happy with Government's self employed response. Too difficult to administer I understand- so we can go hang? Why not a fixed or sliding rate paid directly based on the last completed self- assessment? There will be a lot of tax- paying plumbers, builders and hairdressers going hungry over the next few months. Just a reminder they are predominantly Conservative voters!
I also understand the idea of a fixed income for everyone during the crisis had the kybosh put on it by IDS's intervention. It was a disincentive to work apparantly, and would undermine his super universal credit scheme. What a guy!
Link to your final paragraph please or is a random piece of fiction
Independent 2 days ago. Iain Duncan Smith says Don't bring in universal income...it will be a 'disincentive to work'!
He has no input in this.
Just a poor accusation with no justification
I have quoted an article look it up! That is what the man believes. He may not be in government, however his views are quite likely taken seriously.
Just done my weekly shop in the big testcos in slough store fairly quiet for a saturday
No pasta Not much canned left except spam No soup No loaves of bread though some pitta, naan etc Meat and fish limited to 3 items though only thing left was about half a shelf of rump steak
All aisles looking fairly threadbare.
However what made me worry a little was I normally get the same cashier as I did today and we chat while checking out. She said when the lorries come in with new stock there is less coming in each day than being sold so each night when they close and restock there is less to buy than the day before
The self-employed are the one group that benefits proportionally less than other groups from the government's action, and would have indeed as mentioned benefitted disproportionately more from the universal incomes policy. The government may have to do more here, and if Ian Duncan-Smith has had any influence on the government's thinking on the subject, I very much hope he won't have any more. His day is gone.
If that’s not a euphemism, I have a bottle of cloves I inherited from my grandfather.
How many times has it been refilled?
Never. I don’t use cloves for anything. It just happens to be part of a rather handsome spice rack which I use and keeping it full looks better than empty.
They've closed the stores because they don't have any customers.
Admitted JLP is not quite like other companies, but they wouldn't keep staff (sorry: "partners") for long if they didn't have the revenue to pay them
It's more like that it's an example of Sunak's policy working.
Maybe they were going to close on Monday with or without the package. That is possible. I did say that JL was only a possible example of what I'm saying.
But you do get my general points, I'm sure -
1. The package will make closing a no-brainer decision for some businesses that otherwise would have struggled on for a while.
2. There is scope for abuse by businesses that are not seriously struggling.
And to be clear, I raise this purely for interest, not because I oppose the package.
A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.
I imagine John Lewis are shifting a lot of staff to Waitrose.
Also, whilst I have great sympathy for the situation many self employed find themselves in, there are companies (most obviously supermarkets) creating jobs that people can apply for. They shouldn’t just expect the Govt to solve everything. God knows what the Govt does if there’s a repeat of what is happening now in winter.
Yes they are. Waitrose Cowbridge on Thursday was being manned largely by staff from John Lewis Cardiff store. Does that mean the part-timers at Waitrose have been let go?
Not happy with Government's self employed response. Too difficult to administer I understand- so we can go hang? Why not a fixed or sliding rate paid directly based on the last completed self- assessment? There will be a lot of tax- paying plumbers, builders and hairdressers going hungry over the next few months. Just a reminder they are predominantly Conservative voters!
I also understand the idea of a fixed income for everyone during the crisis had the kybosh put on it by IDS's intervention. It was a disincentive to work apparantly, and would undermine his super universal credit scheme. What a guy!
Link to your final paragraph please or is a random piece of fiction
Independent 2 days ago. Iain Duncan Smith says Don't bring in universal income...it will be a 'disincentive to work'!
He has no input in this.
Just a poor accusation with no justification
I have quoted an article look it up! That is what the man believes. He may not be in government, however his views are quite likely taken seriously.
Yes, wasn't he also a mere backbencher when he drove up to Chequers in an open-top sports car, along with the other 'Grand Wizards', to instruct Theresa on Brexit?
They've closed the stores because they don't have any customers.
Admitted JLP is not quite like other companies, but they wouldn't keep staff (sorry: "partners") for long if they didn't have the revenue to pay them
It's more like that it's an example of Sunak's policy working.
Maybe they were going to close on Monday with or without the package. That is possible. I did say that JL was only a possible example of what I'm saying.
But you do get my general points, I'm sure -
1. The package will make closing a no-brainer decision for some businesses that otherwise would have struggled on for a while.
2. There is scope for abuse by businesses that are not seriously struggling.
And to be clear, I raise this purely for interest, not because I oppose the package.
A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.
I imagine John Lewis are shifting a lot of staff to Waitrose.
Also, whilst I have great sympathy for the situation many self employed find themselves in, there are companies (most obviously supermarkets) creating jobs that people can apply for. They shouldn’t just expect the Govt to solve everything. God knows what the Govt does if there’s a repeat of what is happening now in winter.
Yes they are. Waitrose Cowbridge on Thursday was being manned largely by staff from John Lewis Cardiff store. Does that mean the part-timers at Waitrose have been let go?
Not happy with Government's self employed response. Too difficult to administer I understand- so we can go hang? Why not a fixed or sliding rate paid directly based on the last completed self- assessment? There will be a lot of tax- paying plumbers, builders and hairdressers going hungry over the next few months. Just a reminder they are predominantly Conservative voters!
I also understand the idea of a fixed income for everyone during the crisis had the kybosh put on it by IDS's intervention. It was a disincentive to work apparantly, and would undermine his super universal credit scheme. What a guy!
Link to your final paragraph please or is a random piece of fiction
Independent 2 days ago. Iain Duncan Smith says Don't bring in universal income...it will be a 'disincentive to work'!
He has no input in this.
Just a poor accusation with no justification
IDS made an intervention which may or may not have influenced the government, of course he had an input, he is an MP. We will never know. Not sure why you chose to jump down his throat, others get away with a lot worse.
A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.
That will no doubt cover most scenarios. I'm not saying otherwise. I'm postulating a couple of other scenarios that will probably also occur.
1. A business that would have struggled on for a while without the package decides instead to close now for at least 3 months.
2. A business not struggling that has people WFH due to the crisis re-designates them as being on furlough due to the crisis, thus unlocking the 80%
Yes?
As for 1, sonds plausable, for 2, I don't know what enforcement will look like, but furloughed workers can't perform any work under the guidance that will be supplimented by detail on Monday
But can they do training? By work do you mean chargeable activity? Say a company had 500 staff, all busy, pre covid. Now demand has dropped by 70%. They could sack 350 staff, but good staff are hard to find. They could A) share the work around and fill up everyone's time with training, which is better for moral. Or they could send 70% home for the duration and keep 30% fully utilised. Should they be able to claim support in both scenarios?
If that’s not a euphemism, I have a bottle of cloves I inherited from my grandfather.
How many times has it been refilled?
Never. I don’t use cloves for anything. It just happens to be part of a rather handsome spice rack which I use and keeping it full looks better than empty.
You can use them for setting your dog a scent challenge in your garden.
They've closed the stores because they don't have any customers.
Admitted JLP is not quite like other companies, but they wouldn't keep staff (sorry: "partners") for long if they didn't have the revenue to pay them
It's more like that it's an example of Sunak's policy working.
Maybe they were going to close on Monday with or without the package. That is possible. I did say that JL was only a possible example of what I'm saying.
But you do get my general points, I'm sure -
1. The package will make closing a no-brainer decision for some businesses that otherwise would have struggled on for a while.
2. There is scope for abuse by businesses that are not seriously struggling.
And to be clear, I raise this purely for interest, not because I oppose the package.
A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.
I imagine John Lewis are shifting a lot of staff to Waitrose.
Also, whilst I have great sympathy for the situation many self employed find themselves in, there are companies (most obviously supermarkets) creating jobs that people can apply for. They shouldn’t just expect the Govt to solve everything. God knows what the Govt does if there’s a repeat of what is happening now in winter.
Yes they are. Waitrose Cowbridge on Thursday was being manned largely by staff from John Lewis Cardiff store. Does that mean the part-timers at Waitrose have been let go?
Not happy with Government's self employed response. Too difficult to administer I understand- so we can go hang? Why not a fixed or sliding rate paid directly based on the last completed self- assessment? There will be a lot of tax- paying plumbers, builders and hairdressers going hungry over the next few months. Just a reminder they are predominantly Conservative voters!
I also understand the idea of a fixed income for everyone during the crisis had the kybosh put on it by IDS's intervention. It was a disincentive to work apparantly, and would undermine his super universal credit scheme. What a guy!
Link to your final paragraph please or is a random piece of fiction
Independent 2 days ago. Iain Duncan Smith says Don't bring in universal income...it will be a 'disincentive to work'!
He has no input in this.
Just a poor accusation with no justification
He needs shooting for the grief he has caused to millions over the years in any case.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.
The South Korean regime is about:
- having people report symptoms early - testing people in and around those who test positive
Now, I can see that not working in places with no healthcare. And I can see that we lack the testing infrastucture (currently) do do that.
But it doesn't seem to need any societal change.
It requires those people to be traceable and for them to religiously self-isolate.
The traceable issue is the same here as in Korea. They too have ridiculously busy public transport (if anything worse than the tube). Regarding self isolation, surely the simple answer is to make it pay to self isolate.
I think it’s a lot easier to trace people in Korea. Partly because they more or less skipped the PC phase of tech and went straight to mobile phone apps.
I think everyone has a smartphone in the UK.
The idea is fundamentally not that complex.
You get people to report the very earliest symptoms. You get them tested within an hour or reporting in. If they test positive, you contact (and test) the 100 people they've been most likely to be in contact with.
Now, it might be *harder* in the UK. And it certainly requires us to have infrastructure we don't right now. And maybe we might want to have the flexibility to do local lockdowns if necessary.
But it doesn't require any great societal change. It just requires the government to have a large testing organisation with thousands of employees and the ability to do tests very quickly. It also requires that the "base" level of infection is less than 50 or 100 people a day, so that you have the resources to do it.
In my household there are 3 people (adults) and 1 smartphone.
Just heard of the governments "deal" with the private hospitals. I'm surprised it has taken this long. I would have thought the government had the power to requisition, just like they did during the Falklands War.
They've closed the stores because they don't have any customers.
Admitted JLP is not quite like other companies, but they wouldn't keep staff (sorry: "partners") for long if they didn't have the revenue to pay them
It's more like that it's an example of Sunak's policy working.
Maybe they were going to close on Monday with or without the package. That is possible. I did say that JL was only a possible example of what I'm saying.
But you do get my general points, I'm sure -
1. The package will make closing a no-brainer decision for some businesses that otherwise would have struggled on for a while.
2. There is scope for abuse by businesses that are not seriously struggling.
And to be clear, I raise this purely for interest, not because I oppose the package.
A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.
I imagine John Lewis are shifting a lot of staff to Waitrose.
Also, whilst I have great sympathy for the situation many self employed find themselves in, there are companies (most obviously supermarkets) creating jobs that people can apply for. They shouldn’t just expect the Govt to solve everything. God knows what the Govt does if there’s a repeat of what is happening now in winter.
Yes they are. Waitrose Cowbridge on Thursday was being manned largely by staff from John Lewis Cardiff store. Does that mean the part-timers at Waitrose have been let go?
Not happy with Government's self employed response. Too difficult to administer I understand- so we can go hang? Why not a fixed or sliding rate paid directly based on the last completed self- assessment? There will be a lot of tax- paying plumbers, builders and hairdressers going hungry over the next few months. Just a reminder they are predominantly Conservative voters!
I also understand the idea of a fixed income for everyone during the crisis had the kybosh put on it by IDS's intervention. It was a disincentive to work apparantly, and would undermine his super universal credit scheme. What a guy!
Link to your final paragraph please or is a random piece of fiction
Independent 2 days ago. Iain Duncan Smith says Don't bring in universal income...it will be a 'disincentive to work'!
He has no input in this.
Just a poor accusation with no justification
I have quoted an article look it up! That is what the man believes. He may not be in government, however his views are quite likely taken seriously.
Yes, wasn't he also a mere backbencher when he drove up to Chequers in an open-top sports car, along with the other 'Grand Wizards', to instruct Theresa on Brexit?
Yes, of course. Just like that time when he (and Owen Patterson) had their private 'three pairs of eyes' audience with the orange slimeblob when he was in the UK.
They've closed the stores because they don't have any customers.
Admitted JLP is not quite like other companies, but they wouldn't keep staff (sorry: "partners") for long if they didn't have the revenue to pay them
It's more like that it's an example of Sunak's policy working.
Maybe they were going to close on Monday with or without the package. That is possible. I did say that JL was only a possible example of what I'm saying.
But you do get my general points, I'm sure -
1. The package will make closing a no-brainer decision for some businesses that otherwise would have struggled on for a while.
2. There is scope for abuse by businesses that are not seriously struggling.
And to be clear, I raise this purely for interest, not because I oppose the package.
A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.
I imagine John Lewis are shifting a lot of staff to Waitrose.
Also, whilst I have great sympathy for the situation many self employed find themselves in, there are companies (most obviously supermarkets) creating jobs that people can apply for. They shouldn’t just expect the Govt to solve everything. God knows what the Govt does if there’s a repeat of what is happening now in winter.
Yes they are. Waitrose Cowbridge on Thursday was being manned largely by staff from John Lewis Cardiff store. Does that mean the part-timers at Waitrose have been let go?
Not happy with Government's self employed response. Too difficult to administer I understand- so we can go hang? Why not a fixed or sliding rate paid directly based on the last completed self- assessment? There will be a lot of tax- paying plumbers, builders and hairdressers going hungry over the next few months. Just a reminder they are predominantly Conservative voters!
I also understand the idea of a fixed income for everyone during the crisis had the kybosh put on it by IDS's intervention. It was a disincentive to work apparantly, and would undermine his super universal credit scheme. What a guy!
Link to your final paragraph please or is a random piece of fiction
I like to extend general courtesies to your good self. You have accused me of lying! I may appear to be in 'princess' mode but I am genuinely insulted.
Your accusation has no factual base
IDS has no role in this new Boris government who has a chancellor who kept repeating compassion throughout his presentation
It is the insinuation that this government is listening to a backbencher, when this deal was agreed and applauded by the TUC and the CBI
Please explain how Francis O' Grady and Len McCluskey were so wholesome in their praise of the chancellor and this government
Just done my weekly shop in the big testcos in slough store fairly quiet for a saturday
No pasta Not much canned left except spam No soup No loaves of bread though some pitta, naan etc Meat and fish limited to 3 items though only thing left was about half a shelf of rump steak
All aisles looking fairly threadbare.
However what made me worry a little was I normally get the same cashier as I did today and we chat while checking out. She said when the lorries come in with new stock there is less coming in each day than being sold so each night when they close and restock there is less to buy than the day before
Less coming in than is sold because people are buying more.
When people finally stock up on toilet rolls the supermarkets will be stacking them on the pavements to just take away free.
What's certain is that there are more lemons than ever in the supermarkets.
In response to @MattW’s question re pruning of forsythia.
1. Get some sharp clean secateurs so the cut is a clean one. You don’t want to be tearing at the twigs or branches.
2. No problem with pruning now - or you could wait until it’s finished flowering. The advantage of pruning now is that the stems with flowers you cut off can be put in the house to brighten it. The forsythia will still flower next year. It’s a tough old plant.
3. Lop off all the long extra stems that are sticking out. Then gradually cut down to the height and width you want. Aim to make it a rounded shape - a bit like a rounded arch - so that it looks pleasing to you and so as you pass it there aren’t bits sticking into you or catching. There is no magic to this - just step back every few minutes just to look at it form different angles.
4. The key to this is to remember that all plants will grow up to the light so if you leave the they will just reach for the sky. If untouched this ends up leaving you with lots of flowers at the top and bare branches at the bottom. So by cutting at the top and cutting the shoots heading skywards you force the plant to send out side shoots which will flower and it will look rounder and squatter and fatter so you get a burst of really bright yellow sunshine just where you want it.
5. Cut just above a flower or bud - a nice neat cut and sloping downwards. This minimises the possibility of any infection. Cut right down to the base any stems which look empty or straggly.
Plants are fine with pruning. It generally makes them stronger. Forsythia is as tough as old boots.
How hard can I cut into the old wood to reshape the bush, and what impact will that have?
Thanks
MattW
Next year’s flowers will grow from the new wood that grows this year. So if you cut back hard on the old wood you will sacrifice a lot of this year’s flowers but get a much better shape / bush next year.
If it’s already flowering I would do an initial cut to get a better shape while it is flowering. Then once finished flowering, you can go in hard and cut back a third to a quarter of the stems right back - especially in the centre of the bush to let light and sun in.
If it is really very overgrown, you can just wait until flowering is over and then cut everything right back to 4/5 inches above the ground and you effectively start again with a new small plant, which if you prune regularly will stay a nice shape and size for you.
Daily increase of +26% cases - that growth figure is dropping a little bit, but as per Italy it's going to take a long time to fall to something manageable.
They've closed the stores because they don't have any customers.
Admitted JLP is not quite like other companies, but they wouldn't keep staff (sorry: "partners") for long if they didn't have the revenue to pay them
It's more like that it's an example of Sunak's policy working.
Maybe they were going to close on Monday with or without the package. That is possible. I did say that JL was only a possible example of what I'm saying.
But you do get my general points, I'm sure -
1. The package will make closing a no-brainer decision for some businesses that otherwise would have struggled on for a while.
2. There is scope for abuse by businesses that are not seriously struggling.
And to be clear, I raise this purely for interest, not because I oppose the package.
A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.
I imagine John Lewis are shifting a lot of staff to Waitrose.
Also, whilst I have great sympathy for the situation many self employed find themselves in, there are companies (most obviously supermarkets) creating jobs that people can apply for. They shouldn’t just expect the Govt to solve everything. God knows what the Govt does if there’s a repeat of what is happening now in winter.
Yes they are. Waitrose Cowbridge on Thursday was being manned largely by staff from John Lewis Cardiff store. Does that mean the part-timers at Waitrose have been let go?
Not happy with Government's self employed response. Too difficult to administer I understand- so we can go hang? Why not a fixed or sliding rate paid directly based on the last completed self- assessment? There will be a lot of tax- paying plumbers, builders and hairdressers going hungry over the next few months. Just a reminder they are predominantly Conservative voters!
I also understand the idea of a fixed income for everyone during the crisis had the kybosh put on it by IDS's intervention. It was a disincentive to work apparantly, and would undermine his super universal credit scheme. What a guy!
Link to your final paragraph please or is a random piece of fiction
Independent 2 days ago. Iain Duncan Smith says Don't bring in universal income...it will be a 'disincentive to work'!
He has no input in this.
Just a poor accusation with no justification
He needs shooting for the grief he has caused to millions over the years in any case.
I am no defender of IDS and this government is not remotely like TM's government
Just done my weekly shop in the big testcos in slough store fairly quiet for a saturday
No pasta Not much canned left except spam No soup No loaves of bread though some pitta, naan etc Meat and fish limited to 3 items though only thing left was about half a shelf of rump steak
All aisles looking fairly threadbare.
However what made me worry a little was I normally get the same cashier as I did today and we chat while checking out. She said when the lorries come in with new stock there is less coming in each day than being sold so each night when they close and restock there is less to buy than the day before
Less coming in than is sold because people are buying more.
When people finally stock up on toilet rolls the supermarkets will be stacking them on the pavements to just take away free.
What's certain is that there are more lemons than ever in the supermarkets.
Less of everything not merely toilet rolls she said they are getting about 3/4 of what they order. Now hopefully thats just logistics in terms of they don't have enough lorries to deliver. This however is barer than I have ever seen it especially the fresh meat section. No minced beef, no chicken, no turkey, no lamb, no pork, no duck just a half shelf of steak where they normally have 30 shelves of fresh meat
They've closed the stores because they don't have any customers.
Admitted JLP is not quite like other companies, but they wouldn't keep staff (sorry: "partners") for long if they didn't have the revenue to pay them
It's more like that it's an example of Sunak's policy working.
Maybe they were going to close on Monday with or without the package. That is possible. I did say that JL was only a possible example of what I'm saying.
But you do get my general points, I'm sure -
1. The package will make closing a no-brainer decision for some businesses that otherwise would have struggled on for a while.
2. There is scope for abuse by businesses that are not seriously struggling.
And to be clear, I raise this purely for interest, not because I oppose the package.
A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.
I imagine John Lewis are shifting a lot of staff to Waitrose.
Also, whilst I have great sympathy for the situation many self employed find themselves in, there are companies (most obviously supermarkets) creating jobs that people can apply for. They shouldn’t just expect the Govt to solve everything. God knows what the Govt does if there’s a repeat of what is happening now in winter.
Yes they are. Waitrose Cowbridge on Thursday was being manned largely by staff from John Lewis Cardiff store. Does that mean the part-timers at Waitrose have been let go?
Not happy with Government's self employed response. Too difficult to administer I understand- so we can go hang? Why not a fixed or sliding rate paid directly based on the last completed self- assessment? There will be a lot of tax- paying plumbers, builders and hairdressers going hungry over the next few months. Just a reminder they are predominantly Conservative voters!
I also understand the idea of a fixed income for everyone during the crisis had the kybosh put on it by IDS's intervention. It was a disincentive to work apparantly, and would undermine his super universal credit scheme. What a guy!
Link to your final paragraph please or is a random piece of fiction
I like to extend general courtesies to your good self. You have accused me of lying! I may appear to be in 'princess' mode but I am genuinely insulted.
Your accusation has no factual base
IDS has no role in this new Boris government who has a chancellor who kept repeating compassion throughout his presentation
It is the insinuation that this government is listening to a backbencher, when this deal was agreed and applauded by the TUC and the CBI
Please explain how Francis O' Grady and Len McCluskey were so wholesome in their praise of the chancellor and this government
I couldn't care less what McCluskey or O'Grady think.
I have no criticism of the measures Sunak has implemented except for the total exclusion of me (to date).
People like me could be accomodated if there was a universal fee paid for the duration of the crisis. I am OK I have savings, there are many self-employed people who don't.
Thinking it through, it does feel like there ought to be a way to pay all self employed people some percentage of what they paid as tax in January (capped at some level) as an extraordinary tax refund. The processes are there for that. You’re screwed if you made a loss - but then you either were anyway or you’re reaping what you’ve sowed with clever tax planning.
Frankly there's much more I could say about the rest of it, and there's always the chance the authors are geniuses and I'm completely missing something, but I would recommend taking with a pinch of salt. Not even saying their conclusions are wrong, but am saying I don't think this paper should be seen as a more convincing reason to believe them.
I don't have time to read the current paper, but Taleb and friends seem to enjoy criticizing others, without reflecting on their own approaches. And I agree about the snarky tone being unattractive.
There's plenty of room for different models, but I'm not inclined to believe un-reviewed work unless it's from real experts (and then only provisionally).
They've closed the stores because they don't have any customers.
Admitted JLP is not quite like other companies, but they wouldn't keep staff (sorry: "partners") for long if they didn't have the revenue to pay them
It's more like that it's an example of Sunak's policy working.
Maybe they were going to close on Monday with or without the package. That is possible. I did say that JL was only a possible example of what I'm saying.
But you do get my general points, I'm sure -
1. The package will make closing a no-brainer decision for some businesses that otherwise would have struggled on for a while.
2. There is scope for abuse by businesses that are not seriously struggling.
And to be clear, I raise this purely for interest, not because I oppose the package.
A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.
I imagine John Lewis are shifting a lot of staff to Waitrose.
Also, whilst I have great sympathy for the situation many self employed find themselves in, there are companies (most obviously supermarkets) creating jobs that people can apply for. They shouldn’t just expect the Govt to solve everything. God knows what the Govt does if there’s a repeat of what is happening now in winter.
Yes they are. Waitrose Cowbridge on Thursday was being manned largely by staff from John Lewis Cardiff store. Does that mean the part-timers at Waitrose have been let go?
Not happy with Government's self employed response. Too difficult to administer I understand- so we can go hang? Why not a fixed or sliding rate paid directly based on the last completed self- assessment? There will be a lot of tax- paying plumbers, builders and hairdressers going hungry over the next few months. Just a reminder they are predominantly Conservative voters!
I also understand the idea of a fixed income for everyone during the crisis had the kybosh put on it by IDS's intervention. It was a disincentive to work apparantly, and would undermine his super universal credit scheme. What a guy!
Link to your final paragraph please or is a random piece of fiction
I like to extend general courtesies to your good self. You have accused me of lying! I may appear to be in 'princess' mode but I am genuinely insulted.
Your accusation has no factual base
IDS has no role in this new Boris government who has a chancellor who kept repeating compassion throughout his presentation
It is the insinuation that this government is listening to a backbencher, when this deal was agreed and applauded by the TUC and the CBI
Please explain how Francis O' Grady and Len McCluskey were so wholesome in their praise of the chancellor and this government
I couldn't care less what McCluskey or O'Grady think.
I have no criticism of the measures Sunak has implemented except for the total exclusion of me (to date).
People like me could be accomodated if there was a universal fee paid for the duration of the crisis. I am OK I have savings, there are many self-employed people who don't.
And yes you implied I lied!
You tried to tie IDS into decision making at the highest level in this government without any evidence he had any influence on the decisions being made
Just done my weekly shop in the big testcos in slough store fairly quiet for a saturday
No pasta Not much canned left except spam No soup No loaves of bread though some pitta, naan etc Meat and fish limited to 3 items though only thing left was about half a shelf of rump steak
All aisles looking fairly threadbare.
However what made me worry a little was I normally get the same cashier as I did today and we chat while checking out. She said when the lorries come in with new stock there is less coming in each day than being sold so each night when they close and restock there is less to buy than the day before
Less coming in than is sold because people are buying more.
When people finally stock up on toilet rolls the supermarkets will be stacking them on the pavements to just take away free.
What's certain is that there are more lemons than ever in the supermarkets.
Less of everything not merely toilet rolls she said they are getting about 3/4 of what they order. Now hopefully thats just logistics in terms of they don't have enough lorries to deliver. This however is barer than I have ever seen it especially the fresh meat section. No minced beef, no chicken, no turkey, no lamb, no pork, no duck just a half shelf of steak where they normally have 30 shelves of fresh meat
People must have been stocking freezers ?
The local Sainsbury’s was a great deal less hectic this morning, FWIW, and I am consciously buying only day to day now.
Just done my weekly shop in the big testcos in slough store fairly quiet for a saturday
No pasta Not much canned left except spam No soup No loaves of bread though some pitta, naan etc Meat and fish limited to 3 items though only thing left was about half a shelf of rump steak
All aisles looking fairly threadbare.
However what made me worry a little was I normally get the same cashier as I did today and we chat while checking out. She said when the lorries come in with new stock there is less coming in each day than being sold so each night when they close and restock there is less to buy than the day before
Less coming in than is sold because people are buying more.
When people finally stock up on toilet rolls the supermarkets will be stacking them on the pavements to just take away free.
What's certain is that there are more lemons than ever in the supermarkets.
Less of everything not merely toilet rolls she said they are getting about 3/4 of what they order. Now hopefully thats just logistics in terms of they don't have enough lorries to deliver. This however is barer than I have ever seen it especially the fresh meat section. No minced beef, no chicken, no turkey, no lamb, no pork, no duck just a half shelf of steak where they normally have 30 shelves of fresh meat
People didn't get hungrier. All the food being hoarded will mean people that have it need to shop less. They'll have messed up and be throwing away far more, but that's the sort of slack that the systems can cope with.
They've closed the stores because they don't have any customers.
Admitted JLP is not quite like other companies, but they wouldn't keep staff (sorry: "partners") for long if they didn't have the revenue to pay them
It's more like that it's an example of Sunak's policy working.
Maybe they were going to close on Monday with or without the package. That is possible. I did say that JL was only a possible example of what I'm saying.
But you do get my general points, I'm sure -
1. The package will make closing a no-brainer decision for some businesses that otherwise would have struggled on for a while.
2. There is scope for abuse by businesses that are not seriously struggling.
And to be clear, I raise this purely for interest, not because I oppose the package.
A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.
I imagine John Lewis are shifting a lot of staff to Waitrose.
Also, whilst I have great sympathy for the situation many self employed find themselves in, there are companies (most obviously supermarkets) creating jobs that people can apply for. They shouldn’t just expect the Govt to solve everything. God knows what the Govt does if there’s a repeat of what is happening now in winter.
Yes they are. Waitrose Cowbridge on Thursday was being manned largely by staff from John Lewis Cardiff store. Does that mean the part-timers at Waitrose have been let go?
Not happy with Government's self employed response. Too difficult to administer I understand- so we can go hang? Why not a fixed or sliding rate paid directly based on the last completed self- assessment? There will be a lot of tax- paying plumbers, builders and hairdressers going hungry over the next few months. Just a reminder they are predominantly Conservative voters!
I also understand the idea of a fixed income for everyone during the crisis had the kybosh put on it by IDS's intervention. It was a disincentive to work apparantly, and would undermine his super universal credit scheme. What a guy!
Link to your final paragraph please or is a random piece of fiction
I like to extend general courtesies to your good self. You have accused me of lying! I may appear to be in 'princess' mode but I am genuinely insulted.
Your accusation has no factual base
IDS has no role in this new Boris government who has a chancellor who kept repeating compassion throughout his presentation
It is the insinuation that this government is listening to a backbencher, when this deal was agreed and applauded by the TUC and the CBI
Please explain how Francis O' Grady and Len McCluskey were so wholesome in their praise of the chancellor and this government
I couldn't care less what McCluskey or O'Grady think.
I have no criticism of the measures Sunak has implemented except for the total exclusion of me (to date).
People like me could be accomodated if there was a universal fee paid for the duration of the crisis. I am OK I have savings, there are many self-employed people who don't.
And yes you implied I lied!
You tried to tie IDS into decision making at the highest level in this government without any evidence he had any influence on the decisions being made
I am not accusing you of lying
The government are indicating that it would be difficult to compensate self- employed people like me in a similar manner to how they are compensating employed people. Some universal payment system for everyone costing no more than the current system outlined by Sunak (except Sunak is currently excluding the self-employed) would be fine.
I repeat IDS believes that system disincentivises work. He was quoted as saying so in the Independent. I will bet my boots he has Boris' ear. Maybe he is right, and lazy lowlife scum like me should get out and take one of the many fabulous new opportunities offered by the supermarkets. Indeed maybe I will try!
Just done my weekly shop in the big testcos in slough store fairly quiet for a saturday
No pasta Not much canned left except spam No soup No loaves of bread though some pitta, naan etc Meat and fish limited to 3 items though only thing left was about half a shelf of rump steak
All aisles looking fairly threadbare.
However what made me worry a little was I normally get the same cashier as I did today and we chat while checking out. She said when the lorries come in with new stock there is less coming in each day than being sold so each night when they close and restock there is less to buy than the day before
Less coming in than is sold because people are buying more.
When people finally stock up on toilet rolls the supermarkets will be stacking them on the pavements to just take away free.
What's certain is that there are more lemons than ever in the supermarkets.
Less of everything not merely toilet rolls she said they are getting about 3/4 of what they order. Now hopefully thats just logistics in terms of they don't have enough lorries to deliver. This however is barer than I have ever seen it especially the fresh meat section. No minced beef, no chicken, no turkey, no lamb, no pork, no duck just a half shelf of steak where they normally have 30 shelves of fresh meat
People must have been stocking freezers ?
The local Sainsbury’s was a great deal less hectic this morning, FWIW, and I am consciously buying only day to day now.
Report in the paper today of a man pushing a supermarket trolley overloaded with toilet rolls and hand santisers being accosted by a very irate customer
After the customer had finished his rant, the man enquired if it would be alright, that as he works here, if he could continue stocking the shelves !!!!!!!!!!!
As of 9am on 21 March 2020, 72,818 people have been tested in the UK, of which 67,800 were confirmed negative and 5,018 were confirmed positive.
As of 9am, 233 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
1,100 new cases.. bad news...
I make it 1,035 new cases but still not great.
A slight gleam of hope is that yesterday there was 2355 tests which confirmed 714 cases or about 30%. Today there was 5842 which confirmed 1034 or around 17%.
Just done my weekly shop in the big testcos in slough store fairly quiet for a saturday
No pasta Not much canned left except spam No soup No loaves of bread though some pitta, naan etc Meat and fish limited to 3 items though only thing left was about half a shelf of rump steak
All aisles looking fairly threadbare.
However what made me worry a little was I normally get the same cashier as I did today and we chat while checking out. She said when the lorries come in with new stock there is less coming in each day than being sold so each night when they close and restock there is less to buy than the day before
Less coming in than is sold because people are buying more.
When people finally stock up on toilet rolls the supermarkets will be stacking them on the pavements to just take away free.
What's certain is that there are more lemons than ever in the supermarkets.
Less of everything not merely toilet rolls she said they are getting about 3/4 of what they order. Now hopefully thats just logistics in terms of they don't have enough lorries to deliver. This however is barer than I have ever seen it especially the fresh meat section. No minced beef, no chicken, no turkey, no lamb, no pork, no duck just a half shelf of steak where they normally have 30 shelves of fresh meat
This data is a bit out of date but 1st week of March order were typically 100% up on previous week for key items.
A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.
That will no doubt cover most scenarios. I'm not saying otherwise. I'm postulating a couple of other scenarios that will probably also occur.
1. A business that would have struggled on for a while without the package decides instead to close now for at least 3 months.
2. A business not struggling that has people WFH due to the crisis re-designates them as being on furlough due to the crisis, thus unlocking the 80%
Unless you view the drop in gross profit as being temporary (which doesn't work as you define as "struggling for a while") then it would make sense to continue operating
2. In practice this doesn't work, because it would need all staff to accept that they would be complicit in breaking the law (I assume) by falsely claiming. In order for this to work you would need to share the benefit of the 80%. This would show up in next month's PAYE unless you pay then cash in hand, in which case you are getting into a whole different level of criminality.
Just done my weekly shop in the big testcos in slough store fairly quiet for a saturday
No pasta Not much canned left except spam No soup No loaves of bread though some pitta, naan etc Meat and fish limited to 3 items though only thing left was about half a shelf of rump steak
All aisles looking fairly threadbare.
However what made me worry a little was I normally get the same cashier as I did today and we chat while checking out. She said when the lorries come in with new stock there is less coming in each day than being sold so each night when they close and restock there is less to buy than the day before
Less coming in than is sold because people are buying more.
When people finally stock up on toilet rolls the supermarkets will be stacking them on the pavements to just take away free.
What's certain is that there are more lemons than ever in the supermarkets.
Less of everything not merely toilet rolls she said they are getting about 3/4 of what they order. Now hopefully thats just logistics in terms of they don't have enough lorries to deliver. This however is barer than I have ever seen it especially the fresh meat section. No minced beef, no chicken, no turkey, no lamb, no pork, no duck just a half shelf of steak where they normally have 30 shelves of fresh meat
People must have been stocking freezers ?
The local Sainsbury’s was a great deal less hectic this morning, FWIW, and I am consciously buying only day to day now.
Not just stocking freezers but buying new ones and filling them. That's what I did. We usually shop day to day and had a small counter top freezer for the odd item which is usually plenty. But when you need to be ready to isolate a family of 4 for 2 weeks it's nowhere near enough so I did what I consider to be the responsible thing and now have enough food to last us 2 weeks.
Just done my weekly shop in the big testcos in slough store fairly quiet for a saturday
No pasta Not much canned left except spam No soup No loaves of bread though some pitta, naan etc Meat and fish limited to 3 items though only thing left was about half a shelf of rump steak
All aisles looking fairly threadbare.
However what made me worry a little was I normally get the same cashier as I did today and we chat while checking out. She said when the lorries come in with new stock there is less coming in each day than being sold so each night when they close and restock there is less to buy than the day before
Less coming in than is sold because people are buying more.
When people finally stock up on toilet rolls the supermarkets will be stacking them on the pavements to just take away free.
What's certain is that there are more lemons than ever in the supermarkets.
Less of everything not merely toilet rolls she said they are getting about 3/4 of what they order. Now hopefully thats just logistics in terms of they don't have enough lorries to deliver. This however is barer than I have ever seen it especially the fresh meat section. No minced beef, no chicken, no turkey, no lamb, no pork, no duck just a half shelf of steak where they normally have 30 shelves of fresh meat
People must have been stocking freezers ?
The local Sainsbury’s was a great deal less hectic this morning, FWIW, and I am consciously buying only day to day now.
They've closed the stores because they don't have any customers.
Admitted JLP is not quite like other companies, but they wouldn't keep staff (sorry: "partners") for long if they didn't have the revenue to pay them
It's more like that it's an example of Sunak's policy working.
Maybe they were going to close on Monday with or without the package. That is possible. I did say that JL was only a possible example of what I'm saying.
But you do get my general points, I'm sure -
1. The package will make closing a no-brainer decision for some businesses that otherwise would have struggled on for a while.
2. There is scope for abuse by businesses that are not seriously struggling.
And to be clear, I raise this purely for interest, not because I oppose the package.
A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.
I imagine John Lewis are shifting a lot of staff to Waitrose.
Also, whilst I have great sympathy for the situation many self employed find themselves in, there are companies (most obviously supermarkets) creating jobs that people can apply for. They shouldn’t just expect the Govt to solve everything. God knows what the Govt does if there’s a repeat of what is happening now in winter.
Yes they are. Waitrose Cowbridge on Thursday was being manned largely by staff from John Lewis Cardiff store. Does that mean the part-timers at Waitrose have been let go?
Not happy with Government's self employed response. Too difficult to administer I understand- so we can go hang? Why not a fixed or sliding rate paid directly based on the last completed self- assessment? There will be a lot of tax- paying plumbers, builders and hairdressers going hungry over the next few months. Just a reminder they are predominantly Conservative voters!
I also understand the idea of a fixed income for everyone during the crisis had the kybosh put on it by IDS's intervention. It was a disincentive to work apparantly, and would undermine his super universal credit scheme. What a guy!
Link to your final paragraph please or is a random piece of fiction
I like to extend general courtesies to your good self. You have accused me of lying! I may appear to be in 'princess' mode but I am genuinely insulted.
Your accusation has no factual base
IDS has no role in this new Boris government who has a chancellor who kept repeating compassion throughout his presentation
It is the insinuation that this government is listening to a backbencher, when this deal was agreed and applauded by the TUC and the CBI
Please explain how Francis O' Grady and Len McCluskey were so wholesome in their praise of the chancellor and this government
I couldn't care less what McCluskey or O'Grady think.
I have no criticism of the measures Sunak has implemented except for the total exclusion of me (to date).
People like me could be accomodated if there was a universal fee paid for the duration of the crisis. I am OK I have savings, there are many self-employed people who don't.
And yes you implied I lied!
You tried to tie IDS into decision making at the highest level in this government without any evidence he had any influence on the decisions being made
I am not accusing you of lying
The government are indicating that it would be difficult to compensate self- employed people like me in a similar manner to how they are compensating employed people. Some universal payment system for everyone costing no more than the current system outlined by Sunak (except Sunak is currently excluding the self-employed) would be fine.
I repeat IDS believes that system disincentivises work. He was quoted as saying so in the Independent. I will bet my boots he has Boris' ear. Maybe he is right, and lazy lowlife scum like me should get out and take one of the many fabulous new opportunities offered by the supermarkets. Indeed maybe I will try!
I really think your last paragraph is hyperbole and you have no evidence that Boris or Rishi are listening to him.
I do have sympathy for the self employed and hope that next week the issue will be addressed.
This is a huge crisis and every issue cannot be resolved just at a flick of a switch.
Let us see what comes along from either the Treasury or HMRC next week
Just done my weekly shop in the big testcos in slough store fairly quiet for a saturday
No pasta Not much canned left except spam No soup No loaves of bread though some pitta, naan etc Meat and fish limited to 3 items though only thing left was about half a shelf of rump steak
All aisles looking fairly threadbare.
However what made me worry a little was I normally get the same cashier as I did today and we chat while checking out. She said when the lorries come in with new stock there is less coming in each day than being sold so each night when they close and restock there is less to buy than the day before
Less coming in than is sold because people are buying more.
When people finally stock up on toilet rolls the supermarkets will be stacking them on the pavements to just take away free.
What's certain is that there are more lemons than ever in the supermarkets.
Less of everything not merely toilet rolls she said they are getting about 3/4 of what they order. Now hopefully thats just logistics in terms of they don't have enough lorries to deliver. This however is barer than I have ever seen it especially the fresh meat section. No minced beef, no chicken, no turkey, no lamb, no pork, no duck just a half shelf of steak where they normally have 30 shelves of fresh meat
This data is a bit out of date but 1st week of March order were typically 100% up on previous week for key items.
Some big bonuses on the way to the boardrooms of Britain's supermarkets!
Also, am I the only one on the UHT milk...that stuff is bloody disgusting on its own...
I don't have a fridge in my attic. Relying on leaving my UHT milk on the roof...
I order UHT milk to make yoghurt with. Because it's been heated more than standard pasteurised milk, you just have to mix a bit of live yoghurt with it, put it in the yoghurt maker overnight, and you're away. Wouldn't drink the stuff on its own if I could help it. Yucky stuff and worse for you than normal pasteurised.
I only have it in coffee. The alternative is powdered milk. I have no good choices right now..
As of 9am on 21 March 2020, 72,818 people have been tested in the UK, of which 67,800 were confirmed negative and 5,018 were confirmed positive.
As of 9am, 233 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
233 is exactly the same as Italy's death toll on March 7th, two weeks ago. On the same day, they had 5,061 confirmed cases.
They had 5,061 active cases on 7 March (total - (deaths + recoveries) but the total cumulative number of positive tests on that date was was 5,883. The rate of increase on that day in Italy, 27%, has not been equalled or exceeded since - although that may be down to more testing. In all our neighbouring countries the rate of increase has peaked at 25 % or so when they got to the 5k - 10k cases mark.
As I have said ad nauseum on here, we're a different country, and we don't know what is round the corner. A day at a time.
Just done my weekly shop in the big testcos in slough store fairly quiet for a saturday
No pasta Not much canned left except spam No soup No loaves of bread though some pitta, naan etc Meat and fish limited to 3 items though only thing left was about half a shelf of rump steak
All aisles looking fairly threadbare.
However what made me worry a little was I normally get the same cashier as I did today and we chat while checking out. She said when the lorries come in with new stock there is less coming in each day than being sold so each night when they close and restock there is less to buy than the day before
Less coming in than is sold because people are buying more.
When people finally stock up on toilet rolls the supermarkets will be stacking them on the pavements to just take away free.
What's certain is that there are more lemons than ever in the supermarkets.
Less of everything not merely toilet rolls she said they are getting about 3/4 of what they order. Now hopefully thats just logistics in terms of they don't have enough lorries to deliver. This however is barer than I have ever seen it especially the fresh meat section. No minced beef, no chicken, no turkey, no lamb, no pork, no duck just a half shelf of steak where they normally have 30 shelves of fresh meat
People must have been stocking freezers ?
The local Sainsbury’s was a great deal less hectic this morning, FWIW, and I am consciously buying only day to day now.
Report in the paper today of a man pushing a supermarket trolley overloaded with toilet rolls and hand santisers being accosted by a very irate customer
After the customer had finished his rant, the man enquired if it would be alright, that as he works here, if he could continue stocking the shelves !!!!!!!!!!!
Just done my weekly shop in the big testcos in slough store fairly quiet for a saturday
No pasta Not much canned left except spam No soup No loaves of bread though some pitta, naan etc Meat and fish limited to 3 items though only thing left was about half a shelf of rump steak
All aisles looking fairly threadbare.
However what made me worry a little was I normally get the same cashier as I did today and we chat while checking out. She said when the lorries come in with new stock there is less coming in each day than being sold so each night when they close and restock there is less to buy than the day before
Less coming in than is sold because people are buying more.
When people finally stock up on toilet rolls the supermarkets will be stacking them on the pavements to just take away free.
What's certain is that there are more lemons than ever in the supermarkets.
Less of everything not merely toilet rolls she said they are getting about 3/4 of what they order. Now hopefully thats just logistics in terms of they don't have enough lorries to deliver. This however is barer than I have ever seen it especially the fresh meat section. No minced beef, no chicken, no turkey, no lamb, no pork, no duck just a half shelf of steak where they normally have 30 shelves of fresh meat
People must have been stocking freezers ?
The local Sainsbury’s was a great deal less hectic this morning, FWIW, and I am consciously buying only day to day now.
Report in the paper today of a man pushing a supermarket trolley overloaded with toilet rolls and hand santisers being accosted by a very irate customer
After the customer had finished his rant, the man enquired if it would be alright, that as he works here, if he could continue stocking the shelves !!!!!!!!!!!
If that’s not a euphemism, I have a bottle of cloves I inherited from my grandfather.
How many times has it been refilled?
Never. I don’t use cloves for anything. It just happens to be part of a rather handsome spice rack which I use and keeping it full looks better than empty.
Just done my weekly shop in the big testcos in slough store fairly quiet for a saturday
No pasta Not much canned left except spam No soup No loaves of bread though some pitta, naan etc Meat and fish limited to 3 items though only thing left was about half a shelf of rump steak
All aisles looking fairly threadbare.
However what made me worry a little was I normally get the same cashier as I did today and we chat while checking out. She said when the lorries come in with new stock there is less coming in each day than being sold so each night when they close and restock there is less to buy than the day before
Less coming in than is sold because people are buying more.
When people finally stock up on toilet rolls the supermarkets will be stacking them on the pavements to just take away free.
What's certain is that there are more lemons than ever in the supermarkets.
Less of everything not merely toilet rolls she said they are getting about 3/4 of what they order. Now hopefully thats just logistics in terms of they don't have enough lorries to deliver. This however is barer than I have ever seen it especially the fresh meat section. No minced beef, no chicken, no turkey, no lamb, no pork, no duck just a half shelf of steak where they normally have 30 shelves of fresh meat
People must have been stocking freezers ?
The local Sainsbury’s was a great deal less hectic this morning, FWIW, and I am consciously buying only day to day now.
Why? That looks like a risk maximising strategy.
Some of us have no choice but more or less shop a few days at a time, no freezer and no room to put one and only a half height fridge
The government are indicating that it would be difficult to compensate self- employed people like me in a similar manner to how they are compensating employed people. Some universal payment system for everyone costing no more than the current system outlined by Sunak (except Sunak is currently excluding the self-employed) would be fine.
I repeat IDS believes that system disincentivises work. He was quoted as saying so in the Independent. I will bet my boots he has Boris' ear. Maybe he is right, and lazy lowlife scum like me should get out and take one of the many fabulous new opportunities offered by the supermarkets. Indeed maybe I will try!
I really think your last paragraph is hyperbole and you have no evidence that Boris or Rishi are listening to him.
I do have sympathy for the self employed and hope that next week the issue will be addressed.
This is a huge crisis and every issue cannot be resolved just at a flick of a switch.
Let us see what comes along from either the Treasury or HMRC next week
If Mr Pete wishes to give whatever's said a spin despite his reservations then that's full marks from me.
They've closed the stores because they don't have any customers.
Admitted JLP is not quite like other companies, but they wouldn't keep staff (sorry: "partners") for long if they didn't have the revenue to pay them
It's more like that it's an example of Sunak's policy working.
Maybe they were going to close on Monday with or without the package. That is possible. I did say that JL was only a possible example of what I'm saying.
But you do get my general points, I'm sure -
1. The package will make closing a no-brainer decision for some businesses that otherwise would have struggled on for a while.
2. There is scope for abuse by businesses that are not seriously struggling.
And to be clear, I raise this purely for interest, not because I oppose the package.
A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.
I imagine John Lewis are shifting a lot of staff to Waitrose.
Also, whilst I have great sympathy for the situation many self employed find themselves in, there are companies (most obviously supermarkets) creating jobs that people can apply for. They shouldn’t just expect the Govt to solve everything. God knows what the Govt does if there’s a repeat of what is happening now in winter.
Yes they are. Waitrose Cowbridge on Thursday was being manned largely by staff from John Lewis Cardiff store. Does that mean the part-timers at Waitrose have been let go?
Not happy with Government's self employed response. Too difficult to administer I understand- so we can go hang? Why not a fixed or sliding rate paid directly based on the last completed self- assessment? There will be a lot of tax- paying plumbers, builders and hairdressers going hungry over the next few months. Just a reminder they are predominantly Conservative voters!
I also understand the idea of a fixed income for everyone during the crisis had the kybosh put on it by IDS's intervention. It was a disincentive to work apparantly, and would undermine his super universal credit scheme. What a guy!
Link to your final paragraph please or is a random piece of fiction
I like to extend general courtesies to your good self. You have accused me of lying! I may appear to be in 'princess' mode but I am genuinely insulted.
Your accusation has no factual base
IDS has no role in this new Boris government who has a chancellor who kept repeating compassion throughout his presentation
It is the insinuation that this government is listening to a backbencher, when this deal was agreed and applauded by the TUC and the CBI
Please explain how Francis O' Grady and Len McCluskey were so wholesome in their praise of the chancellor and this government
I couldn't care less what McCluskey or O'Grady think.
I have no criticism of the measures Sunak has implemented except for the total exclusion of me (to date).
People like me could be accomodated if there was a universal fee paid for the duration of the crisis. I am OK I have savings, there are many self-employed people who don't.
And yes you implied I lied!
You tried to tie IDS into decision making at the highest level in this government without any evidence he had any influence on the decisions being made
I am not accusing you of lying
The government are indicating that it would be difficult to compensate self- employed people like me in a similar manner to how they are compensating employed people. Some universal payment system for everyone costing no more than the current system outlined by Sunak (except Sunak is currently excluding the self-employed) would be fine.
I repeat IDS believes that system disincentivises work. He was quoted as saying so in the Independent. I will bet my boots he has Boris' ear. Maybe he is right, and lazy lowlife scum like me should get out and take one of the many fabulous new opportunities offered by the supermarkets. Indeed maybe I will try!
I really think your last paragraph is hyperbole and you have no evidence that Boris or Rishi are listening to him.
I do have sympathy for the self employed and hope that next week the issue will be addressed.
This is a huge crisis and every issue cannot be resolved just at a flick of a switch.
Let us see what comes along from either the Treasury or HMRC next week
But it could have been resolved with a flick of a switch! A simpler system could have been adopted by government to accomodate everyone. Iain Duncan Smith however thinks one of those systems at least disincentivises people, and he has said so.
As for hyperbole, you are quite right- but the reality applies, and if I am left high and dry, I will find something as I don't feel I should be spending what I have saved for my retirement when everyone else is being looked after. And before someone explains I have alread been showered with jam by the government, yes I am aware our tax payments have been deferred to January from July,
As of 9am on 21 March 2020, 72,818 people have been tested in the UK, of which 67,800 were confirmed negative and 5,018 were confirmed positive.
As of 9am, 233 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
233 is exactly the same as Italy's death toll on March 7th, two weeks ago. On the same day, they had 5,061 confirmed cases.
They had 5,061 active cases on 7 March (total - (deaths + recoveries) but the total cumulative number of positive tests on that date was was 5,883. The rate of increase on that day in Italy, 27%, has not been equalled or exceeded since - although that may be down to more testing. In all our neighbouring countries the rate of increase has peaked at 25 % or so when they got to the 5k - 10k cases mark.
As I have said ad nauseum on here, we're a different country, and we don't know what is round the corner. A day at a time.
Very wise! Also, note that two weeks ago, Italy had taken fewer preventative measures (e.g., all the handwashing / work from home stuff really should have an effect here) and had also performed a lot fewer tests. But yes, let's see what happens.
As of 9am on 21 March 2020, 72,818 people have been tested in the UK, of which 67,800 were confirmed negative and 5,018 were confirmed positive.
As of 9am, 233 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
1,100 new cases.. bad news...
I make it 1,035 new cases but still not great.
A slight gleam of hope is that yesterday there was 2355 tests which confirmed 714 cases or about 30%. Today there was 5842 which confirmed 1034 or around 17%.
Or perhaps they are just getting less choosy about who they test.
If that’s not a euphemism, I have a bottle of cloves I inherited from my grandfather.
How many times has it been refilled?
Never. I don’t use cloves for anything. It just happens to be part of a rather handsome spice rack which I use and keeping it full looks better than empty.
Mulled wine? You are missing out!
Could be an option. Or apple pies - but I prefer blackberries with my apple pies.
They've closed the stores because they don't have any customers.
Admitted JLP is not quite like other companies, but they wouldn't keep staff (sorry: "partners") for long if they didn't have the revenue to pay them
It's more like that it's an example of Sunak's policy working.
Maybe they were going to close on Monday with or without the package. That is possible. I did say that JL was only a possible example of what I'm saying.
But you do get my general points, I'm sure -
1. The package will make closing a no-brainer decision for some businesses that otherwise would have struggled on for a while.
2. There is scope for abuse by businesses that are not seriously struggling.
And to be clear, I raise this purely for interest, not because I oppose the package.
A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.
I imagine John Lewis are shifting a lot of staff to Waitrose.
Also, whilst I have great sympathy for the situation many self employed find themselves in, there are companies (most obviously supermarkets) creating jobs that people can apply for. They shouldn’t just expect the Govt to solve everything. God knows what the Govt does if there’s a repeat of what is happening now in winter.
Yes they are. Waitrose Cowbridge on Thursday was being manned largely by staff from John Lewis Cardiff store. Does that mean the part-timers at Waitrose have been let go?
Not happy with Government's self employed response. Too difficult to administer I understand- so we can go hang? Why not a fixed or sliding rate paid directly based on the last completed self- assessment? There will be a lot of tax- paying plumbers, builders and hairdressers going hungry over the next few months. Just a reminder they are predominantly Conservative voters!
I also understand the idea of a fixed income for everyone during the crisis had the kybosh put on it by IDS's intervention. It was a disincentive to work apparantly, and would undermine his super universal credit scheme. What a guy!
Link to your final paragraph please or is a random piece of fiction
I like to extend general courtesies to your good self. You have accused me of lying! I may appear to be in 'princess' mode but I am genuinely insulted.
Your accusation has no factual base
IDS has no role in this new Boris government who has a chancellor who kept repeating compassion throughout his presentation
It is the insinuation that this government is listening to a backbencher, when this deal was agreed and applauded by the TUC and the CBI
Please explain how Francis O' Grady and Len McCluskey were so wholesome in their praise of the chancellor and this government
I couldn't care less what McCluskey or O'Grady think.
I have no criticism of the measures Sunak has implemented except for the total exclusion of me (to date).
People like me could be accomodated if there was a universal fee paid for the duration of the crisis. I am OK I have savings, there are many self-employed people who don't.
And yes you implied I lied!
You tried to tie IDS into decision making at the highest level in this government without any evidence he had any influence on the decisions being made
I am not accusing you of lying
The government are indicating that it would be difficult to compensate self- employed people like me in a similar manner to how they are compensating employed people. Some universal payment system for everyone costing no more than the current system outlined by Sunak (except Sunak is currently excluding the self-employed) would be fine.
I repeat IDS believes that system disincentivises work. He was quoted as saying so in the Independent. I will bet my boots he has Boris' ear. Maybe he is right, and lazy lowlife scum like me should get out and take one of the many fabulous new opportunities offered by the supermarkets. Indeed maybe I will try!
I really think your last paragraph is hyperbole and you have no evidence that Boris or Rishi are listening to him.
I do have sympathy for the self employed and hope that next week the issue will be addressed.
This is a huge crisis and every issue cannot be resolved just at a flick of a switch.
Let us see what comes along from either the Treasury or HMRC next week
But it could have been resolved with a flick of a switch! A simpler system could have been adopted by government to accomodate everyone. Iain Duncan Smith however thinks one of those systems at least disincentivises people, and he has said so.
As for hyperbole, you are quite right- but the reality applies, and if I am left high and dry, I will find something as I don't feel I should be spending what I have saved for my retirement when everyone else is being looked after. And before someone explains I have alread been showered with jam by the government, yes I am aware our tax payments have been deferred to January from July,
Also, am I the only one on the UHT milk...that stuff is bloody disgusting on its own...
I don't have a fridge in my attic. Relying on leaving my UHT milk on the roof...
I order UHT milk to make yoghurt with. Because it's been heated more than standard pasteurised milk, you just have to mix a bit of live yoghurt with it, put it in the yoghurt maker overnight, and you're away. Wouldn't drink the stuff on its own if I could help it. Yucky stuff and worse for you than normal pasteurised.
I only have it in coffee. The alternative is powdered milk. I have no good choices right now..
Tea tastes better unspoiled by milk. Or sugar. Or anything, really.
They've closed the stores because they don't have any customers.
Admitted JLP is not quite like other companies, but they wouldn't keep staff (sorry: "partners") for long if they didn't have the revenue to pay them
It's more like that it's an example of Sunak's policy working.
Maybe they were going to close on Monday with or without the package. That is possible. I did say that JL was only a possible example of what I'm saying.
But you do get my general points, I'm sure -
1. The package will make closing a no-brainer decision for some businesses that otherwise would have struggled on for a while.
2. There is scope for abuse by businesses that are not seriously struggling.
And to be clear, I raise this purely for interest, not because I oppose the package.
A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.
I imagine John Lewis are shifting a lot of staff to Waitrose.
Also, whilst I have great sympathy for the situation many self employed find themselves in, there are companies (most obviously supermarkets) creating jobs that people can apply for. They shouldn’t just expect the Govt to solve everything. God knows what the Govt does if there’s a repeat of what is happening now in winter.
Yes they are. Waitrose Cowbridge on Thursday was being manned largely by staff from John Lewis Cardiff store. Does that mean the part-timers at Waitrose have been let go?
Not happy with Government's self employed response. Too difficult to administer I understand- so we can go hang? Why not a fixed or sliding rate paid directly based on the last completed self- assessment? There will be a lot of tax- paying plumbers, builders and hairdressers going hungry over the next few months. Just a reminder they are predominantly Conservative voters!
I also understand the idea of a fixed income for everyone during the crisis had the kybosh put on it by IDS's intervention. It was a disincentive to work apparantly, and would undermine his super universal credit scheme. What a guy!
Link to your final paragraph please or is a random piece of fiction
I like to extend general courtesies to your good self. You have accused me of lying! I may appear to be in 'princess' mode but I am genuinely insulted.
Your accusation has no factual base
IDS has no role in this new Boris government who has a chancellor who kept repeating compassion throughout his presentation
It is the insinuation that this government is listening to a backbencher, when this deal was agreed and applauded by the TUC and the CBI
Please explain how Francis O' Grady and Len McCluskey were so wholesome in their praise of the chancellor and this government
I couldn't care less what McCluskey or O'Grady think.
I have no criticism of the measures Sunak has implemented except for the total exclusion of me (to date).
People like me could be accomodated if there was a universal fee paid for the duration of the crisis. I am OK I have savings, there are many self-employed people who don't.
And yes you implied I lied!
You tried to tie IDS into decision making at the highest level in this government without any evidence he had any influence on the decisions being made
I am not accusing you of lying
The government are indicating that it would be difficult to compensate self- employed people like me in a similar manner to how they are compensating employed people. Some universal payment system for everyone costing no more than the current system outlined by Sunak (except Sunak is currently excluding the self-employed) would be fine.
I repeat IDS believes that system disincentivises work. He was quoted as saying so in the Independent. I will bet my boots he has Boris' ear. Maybe he is right, and lazy lowlife scum like me should get out and take one of the many fabulous new opportunities offered by the supermarkets. Indeed maybe I will try!
I really think your last paragraph is hyperbole and you have no evidence that Boris or Rishi are listening to him.
I do have sympathy for the self employed and hope that next week the issue will be addressed.
This is a huge crisis and every issue cannot be resolved just at a flick of a switch.
Let us see what comes along from either the Treasury or HMRC next week
But it could have been resolved with a flick of a switch! A simpler system could have been adopted by government to accomodate everyone. Iain Duncan Smith however thinks one of those systems at least disincentivises people, and he has said so.
As for hyperbole. you are quite right- but the reality applies, and if I am left high and dry, I will find something as I don't feel I should be spending what I have saved for my retirement when everyone else is being looked after. And before someone explains I have alread been showered with jam by the government. yes I am aware our tax payments have been deferred to January from July,
Time to take a break from PB perhaps.
No please do not do that.
I really do not want you or anyone left high and dry.
I reject IDS heartless nonsense and maybe that is why I am odds with HYUFD so much
We all need to show compassion and understanding and I do believe in Boris, Rishi and others we have that. IDS is yesterdays news
Also, am I the only one on the UHT milk...that stuff is bloody disgusting on its own...
I don't have a fridge in my attic. Relying on leaving my UHT milk on the roof...
I order UHT milk to make yoghurt with. Because it's been heated more than standard pasteurised milk, you just have to mix a bit of live yoghurt with it, put it in the yoghurt maker overnight, and you're away. Wouldn't drink the stuff on its own if I could help it. Yucky stuff and worse for you than normal pasteurised.
I only have it in coffee. The alternative is powdered milk. I have no good choices right now..
Tea tastes better unspoiled by milk. Or sugar. Or anything, really.
Comments
https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/waitrose-limits-food-sales-to-people-with-detached-houses-20200319194656
Nope - afraid not!! Just a boring long time lurker
The positive% each day is climbing but not too steeply. Start of the month it was 20%ish, now it's maybe 27%ish (during which period the number of daily tests has increased near ten-fold).
For comparison, the UK figure is maybe around 10% now. Spain's is over 50%.
50% of those tested? The % day on day increase has dropped a bit today for the first time
They'll go fucking wild for it in Islington.....
Definitely a Lib Dem.
I must try to scout out some other options.
Guess that means they are only testing really sick people, perhaps already hospitalised?
Not happy with Government's self employed response. Too difficult to administer I understand- so we can go hang? Why not a fixed or sliding rate paid directly based on the last completed self- assessment? There will be a lot of tax- paying plumbers, builders and hairdressers going hungry over the next few months. Just a reminder they are predominantly Conservative voters!
I also understand the idea of a fixed income for everyone during the crisis had the kybosh put on it by IDS's intervention. It was a disincentive to work apparantly, and would undermine his super universal credit scheme. What a guy!
So where I see this happening is where the WFHs are white collar types doing stuff that really is not essential or significant value added. Emails, meetings, this and that. You know the sort of job I mean. There are loads of them.
Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease?
"What we know so far about the coronavirus makes it a unique case for the potential application of a “herd immunity” approach, a strategy viewed as a desirable side effect in the Netherlands, and briefly considered in the United Kingdom."
"The data from South Korea, where tracking the coronavirus has been by far the best to date, indicate that as much as 99 percent of active cases in the general population are “mild” and do not require specific medical treatment."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
Just a poor accusation with no justification
I'm being biased here because I hate reading things in a smart-ass know-it-all tone, but I honestly can't see anything in there the Imperial team will get sleepless nights about getting things all wrong. The last line really ticked me off:
Where lives are at stake, it is essential for science to adhere to higher standards.
Immediately followed by a "list of references" that would look pants for a bachelors dissertation, let alone an academic journal article,,,
However, they make structural mistakes in analyzing outbreak response
Think this is a bit of an "all models are wrong, some models are useful" thing. Infectious disease modellers are aware of the pros and cons of larger vs simpler models (there are issues you get from trying to put too many "working parts" in) and often like to compare different models, especially between research groups who have structured their models differently (i.e. made a different set of stuctural assumptions, i.e. made a different set of structural errors...)
There's some bits that make me wonder if the authors are aware of the basics of how infectious disease models work ("They also don't specify whether achieving less than one case (extinction of the virus) is possible in their model" and "They ignore the possibility of superspreader events in gatherings by not including the fat tail distribution of contagion in their model" suggests the authors haven't grasped the difference between deterministic and stochastic models, which have different pros and cons. That the Imperial crew used a deterministic model which won't for technical reasons produce extinction results nor require the full probability distribution of spread events - something which is far harder to estimate than R0 and even that is tricky is enough! - is not a sign the eggheads all flushed their brains down the toilets before writing the research, these trade-offs between deterministic and stochastic models are absolutely well known. "The model they use appears to be in the general class of SIR differential equations used in epidemiology and is therefore not well suited for incorporating real world conditions at fine or large scale" - actually the "local" bit can be handled by including regional compartment, which also allows simulation of flows between regions and effect of regional lockdown, so this is something that could be investigated with a model of Imperial's type).
And then something that caused me to completely scratch my head...
... they consider new infections to be a function of infected fraction and immunity, and not influenced by where in the trajectory of the outbreak they are, distinguishing going up from going down.
What on earth is this criticism? Have I misread it? Or are Taleb and friends saying they think there's a kind of "momentum effect" in the population driving whether exposure to the virus leads to an infection event or a failure to infect? There are very good, and frankly biologically obvious, reasons why you would predict the number of new infections from the fraction who have the disease and are potentially active infectors, and how many of the potential infectees have immunity, as well as the contact rate between these groups. The idea that "momentum" plays a part is ... not in Infectious Disease Modelling 101.
Frankly there's much more I could say about the rest of it, and there's always the chance the authors are geniuses and I'm completely missing something, but I would recommend taking with a pinch of salt. Not even saying their conclusions are wrong, but am saying I don't think this paper should be seen as a more convincing reason to believe them.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1241425168746065927?s=20
Just done my weekly shop in the big testcos in slough
store fairly quiet for a saturday
No pasta
Not much canned left except spam
No soup
No loaves of bread though some pitta, naan etc
Meat and fish limited to 3 items though only thing left was about half a shelf of rump steak
All aisles looking fairly threadbare.
However what made me worry a little was I normally get the same cashier as I did today and we chat while checking out. She said when the lorries come in with new stock there is less coming in each day than being sold so each night when they close and restock there is less to buy than the day before
Or
Should they be able to claim support in both scenarios?
As of 9am, 233 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
IDS has no role in this new Boris government who has a chancellor who kept repeating compassion throughout his presentation
It is the insinuation that this government is listening to a backbencher, when this deal was agreed and applauded by the TUC and the CBI
Please explain how Francis O' Grady and Len McCluskey were so wholesome in their praise of the chancellor and this government
When people finally stock up on toilet rolls the supermarkets will be stacking them on the pavements to just take away free.
What's certain is that there are more lemons than ever in the supermarkets.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1241306241676312577
Daily increase of +26% cases - that growth figure is dropping a little bit, but as per Italy it's going to take a long time to fall to something manageable.
67,800 negative.
5,018 positive (+1,035).
As of 9am, 233 (+56 compared to 1pm) patients who tested positive for coronavirus have sadly died.
The digital dashboard will be updated later today.
I have no criticism of the measures Sunak has implemented except for the total exclusion of me (to date).
People like me could be accomodated if there was a universal fee paid for the duration of the crisis. I am OK I have savings, there are many self-employed people who don't.
And yes you implied I lied!
There's plenty of room for different models, but I'm not inclined to believe un-reviewed work unless it's from real experts (and then only provisionally).
--AS
I am not accusing you of lying
The local Sainsbury’s was a great deal less hectic this morning, FWIW, and I am consciously buying only day to day now.
Just buy what you need of what's there.
I repeat IDS believes that system disincentivises work. He was quoted as saying so in the Independent. I will bet my boots he has Boris' ear. Maybe he is right, and lazy lowlife scum like me should get out and take one of the many fabulous new opportunities offered by the supermarkets. Indeed maybe I will try!
After the customer had finished his rant, the man enquired if it would be alright, that as he works here, if he could continue stocking the shelves !!!!!!!!!!!
Today there was 5842 which confirmed 1034 or around 17%.
πᾶν κράτος ὠγύγιον...
* Gross profit - fixed costs - staff costs < 0 - fixed costs
* Gross profit - staff costs < 0
Unless you view the drop in gross profit as being temporary (which doesn't work as you define as "struggling for a while") then it would make sense to continue operating
2. In practice this doesn't work, because it would need all staff to accept that they would be complicit in breaking the law (I assume) by falsely claiming. In order for this to work you would need to share the benefit of the 80%. This would show up in next month's PAYE unless you pay then cash in hand, in which case you are getting into a whole different level of criminality.
I do have sympathy for the self employed and hope that next week the issue will be addressed.
This is a huge crisis and every issue cannot be resolved just at a flick of a switch.
Let us see what comes along from either the Treasury or HMRC next week
As I have said ad nauseum on here, we're a different country, and we don't know what is round the corner. A day at a time.
As for hyperbole, you are quite right- but the reality applies, and if I am left high and dry, I will find something as I don't feel I should be spending what I have saved for my retirement when everyone else is being looked after. And before someone explains I have alread been showered with jam by the government, yes I am aware our tax payments have been deferred to January from July,
Time to take a break from PB perhaps.
I have small Latin and less Greek.
All this ancient power...'
It's from Sophocles' Philoctetes.
I was just tickled by the idea of inheriting a special bequest of a bottle of cloves!
I really do not want you or anyone left high and dry.
I reject IDS heartless nonsense and maybe that is why I am odds with HYUFD so much
We all need to show compassion and understanding and I do believe in Boris, Rishi and others we have that. IDS is yesterdays news
I really am hopeful you will see help next week