Reas an interesting thread the other day about SARS survivors. Most who survived had long term damage to their lungs and have not fully recovered.
We could well be looking at a massive rise in the number of disabled people after this is all over.
That are lots of the reports coming out of China. Lots of survivors with significant lung damage, which they don't know how permanent it is.
It's more the myocarditis that concerns me. It seems to feature in a minority with the condition. We just don't know what the long term will be yet.
The links here to a Singapore School of Public Health are really excellent for those interested in science rather than rumour.
ubcprez/status/1239990410736357376?s=19
Not necessarily myocarditis, but some other things, I guess one thing we have to be a little bit careful of is did the patients have undiagnosed problems before they got it. I mean 80% of Chinese men smoking (or whatever the % is), you shouldn't really be shocked they already have quite screwed lungs and all the other conditions associated with it.
One of the curiosities from China is that victims of Covid there were rarely smokers, despite 52% of Chinese men being smokers.
"Smoking Status Out of 1085 patients with acute respiratory disease due to SARS-CoV-2 in China11, 85% had no history of smoking, 13% were current smokers, and 2% had smoked in the past. This contrasts with the known high smoking prevalence in China of 27.7% (52.1% among men and 2.7% among women) in 2015. "
From the Singapore website that I linked to before.
Smokers who get it get it badly though, with an ods ratio of 14 of dying from it.
How would they know whether someone was a smoker or not? Surely they don't track and monitor people that intensively in China...
It says history, so they asked the patient.
Yellow teeth, brown fingers, bad breath, poor skin, pack of 20 in their pocket...
No, the employees get the money, it is paid into the PAYE account by HMRC (negative income tax, basically). The company has no control over it. It's actually a difficult system to game or abuse as it's only for existing employees and it's paid via a very secure system.
The employee gets the money, yes, but the employer is saved the money that they would otherwise pay.
So an example of how to game it -
A company with white collar staff and enough reserves to ride out the crisis for a while. Pre Sunak they have sent some of their people home to "work". They are technically WFH although in reality the firm can carry on OK without them. They are just doing some emails, some reports, some video meetings, all of that stuff. There is no intention to fire these people atm.
Now, post Sunak. The company designates these WFH people as no longer working from home but on furlough due to the crisis.
The vault is open. Company better off to the tune of £7500 per worker over the 3 months - and for longer if extended.
Perhaps when the detail is known there will be controls to stop this.
Yes, that`s how I see it.
Thinking smaller scale, a director of his own ltd company, set up to accommodate only himself/herself as the sole employee, can put himself/herself on furlough and claim the money (whilst possible actually carrying on working to some extent).
Another one bereft of the milk of human kindness, a poor old lady taking her only opportunity of the week to have a minutes chat and you dreaming of beating up the poor old soul.
Not "dream of" - it's more one of those bad "urges" that we all have and fight back.
Like jumping in front of a train. Bet you get that one.
I can safely say I have never thought of jumping in front of a train, you sound a bit worrying. I have thought of punching a good few but not old ladies.
I think you will find it is a common affliction (at least I hope so cos I have it). It also includes a fear of high places as there is a desire to be drawn to the edge and jump and also to shout out in a quiet theatre. I have never done the last one and clearly not the other 2 either.
They had a report from an ICU department on Sky yesterday, and they said in 2 weeks only 1 individual has made any progress towards recovery. Every single other patient has either died or in the same state as they were days / weeks ago.
The worst thing is going to be if something really simple does actually massively alter people's trajectory.
I think it is more a function of the John Lewis clientelle being people who take the social distancing seriously, so not going to department stores.
Perhaps so. But what I mean is that Sunak's package has made it a no-brainer to close and put your employees on furlough to get the government paying 80% of the wage bill.
So JL were probably struggling and without the package would have carried on struggling for a while longer. Perhaps closing some stores. Perhaps laying off some staff. Now with the package, they do the obvious. Close down for at least 3 months.
If this is right, next week we will see a lot of this. Businesses closing down that otherwise would have carried on for longer in some fashion. No doubt this is factored into the planning rather than being an unintended consequence, since it seems predictable.
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/han/advisory/2020/covid-19-03202020.pdf To preserve PPE for HCW providing medically necessary care for hospitalized patients, the NYC Health Department is directing healthcare facilities to IMMEDIATELY STOP TESTING NON-HOSPITALIZED PATIENTS FOR COVID-19 unless test results will impact the clinical management of the patient. In addition, do not test asymptomatic people, including HCWs or first responders. COVID-19 testing is only indicated for HOSPITALIZED PATIENTS....
They had a report from an ICU department on Sky yesterday, and they said in 2 weeks only 1 individual has made any progress towards recovery. Every single other patient has either died or in the same state as they were days / weeks ago.
The worst thing is going to be if something really simple does actually massively alter people's trajectory.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
This is a possible example of the "gaming" of Sunak's package that I posted about earlier.
JL can place employees "on furlough" and pay 20% of wages instead of 100%.
They can do this even if without the package they were not going to fire people at this point.
That John Lewis decision is going to cost the taxpayer a fortune. Bet they wouldn`t have done that without the Sunak deal.
Kinabalu, I hadn`t realised that companies have to pay the 20%. I assumed that the employee got "just" 80% from the government because it allowed for a 20% income tax deduction. Are you sure?
Will their online service continue? Nothing on their website atm.
Most non-food retailers are likely to close up within the next week or so.
I'm sure it said on the news a little while ago that John Lewis's online offer was to continue as normal. They're presumably just closing the physical stores because footfall has dropped off so much that the sales being made don't come anywhere near to covering costs.
If, as seems logical to assume, other businesses are suffering similar precipitous declines in physical sales then I'm sure you're right and that this will be just the first in a tsunami wave of closures. In a couple of weeks' time you would think that physical retail will consist principally of grocery, pharmacy, takeaway food and places like builders' merchants that mostly or solely sell to tradespeople. In terms of the rest of the High Street you'd think that dentists, opticians and hairdressers will probably keep trading as well, and that'll be about it.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
Very interesting. Korea seems to stand apart from the whole of the rest of the world on the graphs - they must be doing something right.
The crisis is exposing many of the cracked undersides of Britain's public support and infrastructure over many years. Hopefully a silver lining, in a new era of different government support, will be to the put to bed once and for all some of the myths about incomes that have fed the neo-victorian atmosphere on welfare of the last 40 years, which have weakened both the economy and society for very little gain.
"Many food banks said they were finding it impossible to replenish food stocks, even as thousands more people turned to them for help, and others said they had been overwhelmed as hundreds of elderly volunteer regulars were forced to go into self-isolation."
Yes, can we hope to bury 'there is no such thing as society' and 'the market will provide'? But I suppose like the 'The Blessed Margaret' (aka the evil old cow) in the interests of public safety they should be treated as toxic clinical waste and cremated or incinerated.
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/han/advisory/2020/covid-19-03202020.pdf To preserve PPE for HCW providing medically necessary care for hospitalized patients, the NYC Health Department is directing healthcare facilities to IMMEDIATELY STOP TESTING NON-HOSPITALIZED PATIENTS FOR COVID-19 unless test results will impact the clinical management of the patient. In addition, do not test asymptomatic people, including HCWs or first responders. COVID-19 testing is only indicated for HOSPITALIZED PATIENTS....
Similar shortage of PPE to us.
When you stop testing people, that's a serious, serious problem.
Indeed, the one ray of hope with Italy yesterday is that they raised their testing numbers from 17,000 to 24,000. The more people you can catch, especially if they're in jobs where they still have contact with people, the more you can slow CV-19 down.
To be fair, it`s very annoying when in a supermarket queue the till person is engaging in small-talk with the person in front.
That drives me nuts. When it happens - and particularly if the person in front of me doing the chatting is a little old lady - I always have a strong urge to deliver a poleaxing rabbit punch.
To my great credit, however, I have never done so and I'm reasonably confident I never will.
#morethatunites
Another one bereft of the milk of human kindness, a poor old lady taking her only opportunity of the week to have a minutes chat and you dreaming of beating up the poor old soul.
Malc, I get your point and agree to some extent. I`m not bereft of kindness. But bear in mind that if one engages in small-talk with the person serving you (in a supermarket or anywhere else) in full knowledge that there is a queue of people waiting to be served this in itself is really impolite behaviour.
So a bit of wrongness on both sides, can we agree?
But the incentive is there to stop non essential travel AND not make redundancies.
Employees travelling to Peter Jones is not essential People wanting a new colander is not essential.
What you call 'gaming' is the system working....
Plus, JL are struggling at the moment. I wouldn't have been surprised if those who were in shops and had less than 2 years under their belt would have been made redundant when shops were closed.
But the point applies equally to businesses that do not cause the public to travel. It could be any business that is struggling but would not be laying off people right now. For example, the business could have people WFH - OK, now change their designation from WFH Due To Crisis to On Furlough Due To Crisis. That unlocks the 80%.
I put "gaming" in inverteds because all of this is probably priced in by the authors of the package.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.
They had a report from an ICU department on Sky yesterday, and they said in 2 weeks only 1 individual has made any progress towards recovery. Every single other patient has either died or in the same state as they were days / weeks ago.
The worst thing is going to be if something really simple does actually massively alter people's trajectory.
But the incentive is there to stop non essential travel AND not make redundancies.
Employees travelling to Peter Jones is not essential People wanting a new colander is not essential.
What you call 'gaming' is the system working....
Plus, JL are struggling at the moment. I wouldn't have been surprised if those who were in shops and had less than 2 years under their belt would have been made redundant when shops were closed.
But the point applies equally to businesses that do not cause the public to travel. It could be any business that is struggling but would not be laying off people right now. For example, the business could have people WFH - OK, now change their designation from WFH Due To Crisis to On Furlough Due To Crisis. That unlocks the 80%.
I put "gaming" in inverteds because all of this is probably priced in by the authors of the package.
Surely protecting struggling businesses is the whole point of the package? I don't see how this is anything but working as intended.
The crisis is exposing many of the cracked undersides of Britain's public support and infrastructure over many years. Hopefully a silver lining, in a new era of different government support, will be to the put to bed once and for all some of the myths about incomes that have fed the neo-victorian atmosphere on welfare of the last 40 years, which have weakened both the economy and society for very little gain.
"Many food banks said they were finding it impossible to replenish food stocks, even as thousands more people turned to them for help, and others said they had been overwhelmed as hundreds of elderly volunteer regulars were forced to go into self-isolation."
Yes, can we hope to bury 'there is no such thing as society' and 'the market will provide'? But I suppose like the 'The Blessed Margaret' (aka the evil old cow) in the interests of public safety they should be treated as toxic clinical waste and cremated or incinerated.
Save your vinegar for cleaning the house - she never said it.
They had a report from an ICU department on Sky yesterday, and they said in 2 weeks only 1 individual has made any progress towards recovery. Every single other patient has either died or in the same state as they were days / weeks ago.
The worst thing is going to be if something really simple does actually massively alter people's trajectory.
Where was this?
Was similar in newspaper article, it was Lombardy, rows and rows of coffins etc
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.
The South Korean regime is about:
- having people report symptoms early - testing people in and around those who test positive
Now, I can see that not working in places with no healthcare. And I can see that we lack the testing infrastucture (currently) do do that.
This is a possible example of the "gaming" of Sunak's package that I posted about earlier.
JL can place employees "on furlough" and pay 20% of wages instead of 100%.
They can do this even if without the package they were not going to fire people at this point.
But the incentive is to stop non essential travel.
Employees travelling to Peter Jones is not essential People wanting a new colander is not essential.
What you call 'gaming' is the system working....
Plus, JL are struggling at the moment. I wouldn't have been surprised if those who were in shops and had less than 2 years under their belt would have been made redundant when shops were closed.
It’s not the travel that needs to be stopped (or not just that) but the gathering of people in close proximity. A JL store is like a pub or restaurant writ large - not much social distancing possible. And if you can get the colander online why travel in?
I wonder how many of their stores will reopen once this is over.
Hard to say. Could be an opportunity for a cull by the new management? That said, one would've thought that having an extra-long mega-Christmas in March would've stuffed the coffers of Waitrose to bursting point, so the group as a whole will have some breathing time to think about restructuring at the end of all of this.
This is a possible example of the "gaming" of Sunak's package that I posted about earlier.
JL can place employees "on furlough" and pay 20% of wages instead of 100%.
They can do this even if without the package they were not going to fire people at this point.
That John Lewis decision is going to cost the taxpayer a fortune. Bet they wouldn`t have done that without the Sunak deal.
Kinabalu, I hadn`t realised that companies have to pay the 20%. I assumed that the employee got "just" 80% from the government because it allowed for a 20% income tax deduction. Are you sure?
Maybe we should rethink our position on the EU 800,000?
To be fair, it`s very annoying when in a supermarket queue the till person is engaging in small-talk with the person in front.
That drives me nuts. When it happens - and particularly if the person in front of me doing the chatting is a little old lady - I always have a strong urge to deliver a poleaxing rabbit punch.
To my great credit, however, I have never done so and I'm reasonably confident I never will.
#morethatunites
Another one bereft of the milk of human kindness, a poor old lady taking her only opportunity of the week to have a minutes chat and you dreaming of beating up the poor old soul.
Malc, I get your point and agree to some extent. I`m not bereft of kindness. But bear in mind that if one engages in small-talk with the person serving you (in a supermarket or anywhere else) in full knowledge that there is a queue of people waiting to be served this in itself is really impolite behaviour.
So a bit of wrongness on both sides, can we agree?
Yes I was just pulling your chain, some of them take it way over the top, a bit of chit chat whilst sorting out the shopping is fine but in M&S some of them do blether on for ages. I try to keep calm about it but it can get annoying.
That makes about 4,000 Covid-19 deaths in Italy so far. For reference the average number of excess deaths from flu in Italy has been about 15,000 a year.
This article also says: "Italy showed a higher influenza attributable excess mortality compared to other European countries. especially in the elderly."
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.
The South Korean regime is about:
- having people report symptoms early - testing people in and around those who test positive
Now, I can see that not working in places with no healthcare. And I can see that we lack the testing infrastucture (currently) do do that.
But it doesn't seem to need any societal change.
It requires those people to be traceable and for them to religiously self-isolate.
To be fair, it`s very annoying when in a supermarket queue the till person is engaging in small-talk with the person in front.
That drives me nuts. When it happens - and particularly if the person in front of me doing the chatting is a little old lady - I always have a strong urge to deliver a poleaxing rabbit punch.
To my great credit, however, I have never done so and I'm reasonably confident I never will.
#morethatunites
Another one bereft of the milk of human kindness, a poor old lady taking her only opportunity of the week to have a minutes chat and you dreaming of beating up the poor old soul.
Malc, I get your point and agree to some extent. I`m not bereft of kindness. But bear in mind that if one engages in small-talk with the person serving you (in a supermarket or anywhere else) in full knowledge that there is a queue of people waiting to be served this in itself is really impolite behaviour.
So a bit of wrongness on both sides, can we agree?
Yes I was just pulling your chain, some of them take it way over the top, a bit of chit chat whilst sorting out the shopping is fine but in M&S some of them do blether on for ages. I try to keep calm about it but it can get annoying.
Phew - I`m glad you are not cross with me - what with your famously irascible nature and all.
They had a report from an ICU department on Sky yesterday, and they said in 2 weeks only 1 individual has made any progress towards recovery. Every single other patient has either died or in the same state as they were days / weeks ago.
The worst thing is going to be if something really simple does actually massively alter people's trajectory.
Where was this?
Was similar in newspaper article, it was Lombardy, rows and rows of coffins etc
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.
The South Korean regime is about:
- having people report symptoms early - testing people in and around those who test positive
Now, I can see that not working in places with no healthcare. And I can see that we lack the testing infrastucture (currently) do do that.
But it doesn't seem to need any societal change.
It requires those people to be traceable and for them to religiously self-isolate.
The traceable issue is the same here as in Korea. They too have ridiculously busy public transport (if anything worse than the tube). Regarding self isolation, surely the simple answer is to make it pay to self isolate.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.
The South Korean regime is about:
- having people report symptoms early - testing people in and around those who test positive
Now, I can see that not working in places with no healthcare. And I can see that we lack the testing infrastucture (currently) do do that.
But it doesn't seem to need any societal change.
It requires those people to be traceable and for them to religiously self-isolate.
The traceable issue is the same here as in Korea. They too have ridiculously busy public transport (if anything worse than the tube). Regarding self isolation, surely the simple answer is to make it pay to self isolate.
Then you create a financial incentive for people who are unable to work to contract the virus.
That John Lewis decision is going to cost the taxpayer a fortune. Bet they wouldn`t have done that without the Sunak deal.
Kinabalu, I hadn`t realised that companies have to pay the 20%. I assumed that the employee got "just" 80% from the government because it allowed for a 20% income tax deduction. Are you sure?
Exactly the point I'm making. The package will probably trigger a ton of closures of all sorts of businesses who otherwise would probably have struggled on in some fashion for a period. It makes the decision to close for 3 months a no-brainer.
As for the 20%, AIUI that is optional. The government pays 80% and encourages the company to top it up so the employee loses nothing.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.
The South Korean regime is about:
- having people report symptoms early - testing people in and around those who test positive
Now, I can see that not working in places with no healthcare. And I can see that we lack the testing infrastucture (currently) do do that.
But it doesn't seem to need any societal change.
It requires those people to be traceable and for them to religiously self-isolate.
The traceable issue is the same here as in Korea. They too have ridiculously busy public transport (if anything worse than the tube). Regarding self isolation, surely the simple answer is to make it pay to self isolate.
Then you create a financial incentive for people who are unable to work to contract the virus.
So, Korea doesn't have people who are unemployable?
And they get - what - two weeks of sick pay. Doesn't seem that much on an incentive. But maybe you know more unemployable people than me.
To be fair, it`s very annoying when in a supermarket queue the till person is engaging in small-talk with the person in front.
That drives me nuts. When it happens - and particularly if the person in front of me doing the chatting is a little old lady - I always have a strong urge to deliver a poleaxing rabbit punch.
To my great credit, however, I have never done so and I'm reasonably confident I never will.
#morethatunites
Another one bereft of the milk of human kindness, a poor old lady taking her only opportunity of the week to have a minutes chat and you dreaming of beating up the poor old soul.
Malc, I get your point and agree to some extent. I`m not bereft of kindness. But bear in mind that if one engages in small-talk with the person serving you (in a supermarket or anywhere else) in full knowledge that there is a queue of people waiting to be served this in itself is really impolite behaviour.
So a bit of wrongness on both sides, can we agree?
Yes I was just pulling your chain, some of them take it way over the top, a bit of chit chat whilst sorting out the shopping is fine but in M&S some of them do blether on for ages. I try to keep calm about it but it can get annoying.
Phew - I`m glad you are not cross with me - what with your famously irascible nature and all.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.
The South Korean regime is about:
- having people report symptoms early - testing people in and around those who test positive
Now, I can see that not working in places with no healthcare. And I can see that we lack the testing infrastucture (currently) do do that.
But it doesn't seem to need any societal change.
It requires those people to be traceable and for them to religiously self-isolate.
The traceable issue is the same here as in Korea. They too have ridiculously busy public transport (if anything worse than the tube). Regarding self isolation, surely the simple answer is to make it pay to self isolate.
I think it’s a lot easier to trace people in Korea. Partly because they more or less skipped the PC phase of tech and went straight to mobile phone apps.
They had a report from an ICU department on Sky yesterday, and they said in 2 weeks only 1 individual has made any progress towards recovery. Every single other patient has either died or in the same state as they were days / weeks ago.
The worst thing is going to be if something really simple does actually massively alter people's trajectory.
Where was this?
Was similar in newspaper article, it was Lombardy, rows and rows of coffins etc
Sheesh.... Poor buggers.
sounded grim , and no family service etc , it was straight to crematorium, previously no family allowed in whilst ill etc.
That makes about 4,000 Covid-19 deaths in Italy so far. For reference the average number of excess deaths from flu in Italy has been about 15,000 a year.
This article also says: "Italy showed a higher influenza attributable excess mortality compared to other European countries. especially in the elderly."
Regarding panic buying, it occurs to me that it might not necessarily be caused by some people buying large quantities of the same items. If a shop has 500 packets of pasta you only need a relatively small number of people in a densely-populated area to buy two or three packets for it to run out, even if no-one selfishly buys 10 packets.
I don't think people make a lot of pasta in normal times. They are panic buying before they think they ought to be making it.
But the incentive is there to stop non essential travel AND not make redundancies.
Employees travelling to Peter Jones is not essential People wanting a new colander is not essential.
What you call 'gaming' is the system working....
Plus, JL are struggling at the moment. I wouldn't have been surprised if those who were in shops and had less than 2 years under their belt would have been made redundant when shops were closed.
But the point applies equally to businesses that do not cause the public to travel. It could be any business that is struggling but would not be laying off people right now. For example, the business could have people WFH - OK, now change their designation from WFH Due To Crisis to On Furlough Due To Crisis. That unlocks the 80%.
I put "gaming" in inverteds because all of this is probably priced in by the authors of the package.
Surely protecting struggling businesses is the whole point of the package? I don't see how this is anything but working as intended.
Indeed. IMO anyone worried about biz gaming the system doesn't understand the likely economic implications of this current crisis.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.
The South Korean regime is about:
- having people report symptoms early - testing people in and around those who test positive
Now, I can see that not working in places with no healthcare. And I can see that we lack the testing infrastucture (currently) do do that.
But it doesn't seem to need any societal change.
It requires those people to be traceable and for them to religiously self-isolate.
The traceable issue is the same here as in Korea. They too have ridiculously busy public transport (if anything worse than the tube). Regarding self isolation, surely the simple answer is to make it pay to self isolate.
I think it’s a lot easier to trace people in Korea. Partly because they more or less skipped the PC phase of tech and went straight to mobile phone apps.
I think everyone has a smartphone in the UK.
The idea is fundamentally not that complex.
You get people to report the very earliest symptoms. You get them tested within an hour or reporting in. If they test positive, you contact (and test) the 100 people they've been most likely to be in contact with.
Now, it might be *harder* in the UK. And it certainly requires us to have infrastructure we don't right now. And maybe we might want to have the flexibility to do local lockdowns if necessary.
But it doesn't require any great societal change. It just requires the government to have a large testing organisation with thousands of employees and the ability to do tests very quickly. It also requires that the "base" level of infection is less than 50 or 100 people a day, so that you have the resources to do it.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.
The South Korean regime is about:
- having people report symptoms early - testing people in and around those who test positive
Now, I can see that not working in places with no healthcare. And I can see that we lack the testing infrastucture (currently) do do that.
But it doesn't seem to need any societal change.
It requires those people to be traceable and for them to religiously self-isolate.
The traceable issue is the same here as in Korea. They too have ridiculously busy public transport (if anything worse than the tube). Regarding self isolation, surely the simple answer is to make it pay to self isolate.
Then you create a financial incentive for people who are unable to work to contract the virus.
So, Korea doesn't have people who are unemployable?
And they get - what - two weeks of sick pay. Doesn't seem that much on an incentive. But maybe you know more unemployable people than me.
How would it work in a place like California where undocumented migrants do much of the work like cleaning, gardening, home improvements, etc?
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.
The South Korean regime is about:
- having people report symptoms early - testing people in and around those who test positive
Now, I can see that not working in places with no healthcare. And I can see that we lack the testing infrastucture (currently) do do that.
But it doesn't seem to need any societal change.
It requires those people to be traceable and for them to religiously self-isolate.
The traceable issue is the same here as in Korea. They too have ridiculously busy public transport (if anything worse than the tube). Regarding self isolation, surely the simple answer is to make it pay to self isolate.
Then you create a financial incentive for people who are unable to work to contract the virus.
So, Korea doesn't have people who are unemployable?
And they get - what - two weeks of sick pay. Doesn't seem that much on an incentive. But maybe you know more unemployable people than me.
How would it work in a place like California where undocumented migrants do much of the work like cleaning, gardening, home improvements, etc?
Thinking smaller scale, a director of his own ltd company, set up to accommodate only himself/herself as the sole employee, can put himself/herself on furlough and claim the money (whilst possible actually carrying on working to some extent).
Yes. But I think that previous payroll history would be key. So he could only claim 80% of what he had been paying himself, not 80% of what he suddenly decides he ought to be paying himself (or only started paying himself about now, having learnt of the package). Because if it's the latter it's a Rogues Charter.
Not all businesses are suffering. Try buying home gym equipment.
Just ordered a Peloton! I'm told it will arrive April 2nd. I won't be shocked if it doesn't...
Is that the one where you get stung for 40 quid a month so you can pretend you are cycling with a bunch of freaks and some whiny bint prattles on in a high pitched squeaky voice
Regarding panic buying, it occurs to me that it might not necessarily be caused by some people buying large quantities of the same items. If a shop has 500 packets of pasta you only need a relatively small number of people in a densely-populated area to buy two or three packets for it to run out, even if no-one selfishly buys 10 packets.
I don't think people make a lot of pasta in normal times. They are panic buying before they think they ought to be making it.
That's not chilling. That's common sense. They're going to be working flat out in extremely challenging conditions and witnessing a lot of suffering. While they're in it, they'll probably be coping. They will need a lot of support during it but more so afterwards.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
You also need a population that will be able comply with this. South Korea doesn't have the number of undocumented people the US does, for example.
The South Korean regime is about:
- having people report symptoms early - testing people in and around those who test positive
Now, I can see that not working in places with no healthcare. And I can see that we lack the testing infrastucture (currently) do do that.
But it doesn't seem to need any societal change.
It requires those people to be traceable and for them to religiously self-isolate.
The traceable issue is the same here as in Korea. They too have ridiculously busy public transport (if anything worse than the tube). Regarding self isolation, surely the simple answer is to make it pay to self isolate.
I think it’s a lot easier to trace people in Korea. Partly because they more or less skipped the PC phase of tech and went straight to mobile phone apps.
I think everyone has a smartphone in the UK.
The idea is fundamentally not that complex.
You get people to report the very earliest symptoms. You get them tested within an hour or reporting in. If they test positive, you contact (and test) the 100 people they've been most likely to be in contact with.
Now, it might be *harder* in the UK. And it certainly requires us to have infrastructure we don't right now. And maybe we might want to have the flexibility to do local lockdowns if necessary.
But it doesn't require any great societal change. It just requires the government to have a large testing organisation with thousands of employees and the ability to do tests very quickly. It also requires that the "base" level of infection is less than 50 or 100 people a day, so that you have the resources to do it.
Health officials in New York City and Los Angeles County are signaling a change in local strategy when it comes to coronavirus testing, recommending that doctors avoid testing patients except in cases where a test result would significantly change the course of treatment.
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Thinking smaller scale, a director of his own ltd company, set up to accommodate only himself/herself as the sole employee, can put himself/herself on furlough and claim the money (whilst possible actually carrying on working to some extent).
The worst thing is going to be if something really simple does actually massively alter people's trajectory.
So JL were probably struggling and without the package would have carried on struggling for a while longer. Perhaps closing some stores. Perhaps laying off some staff. Now with the package, they do the obvious. Close down for at least 3 months.
If this is right, next week we will see a lot of this. Businesses closing down that otherwise would have carried on for longer in some fashion. No doubt this is factored into the planning rather than being an unintended consequence, since it seems predictable.
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/han/advisory/2020/covid-19-03202020.pdf
To preserve PPE for HCW providing medically necessary care for hospitalized patients, the NYC Health Department is directing healthcare facilities to IMMEDIATELY STOP TESTING NON-HOSPITALIZED PATIENTS FOR COVID-19 unless test results will impact the clinical management of the patient. In addition, do not test asymptomatic people, including HCWs or first responders. COVID-19 testing is only indicated for HOSPITALIZED PATIENTS....
Similar shortage of PPE to us.
In summary: they believe that - so long as you've invested heavily in testing infrastucrture - then you can follow the Korean model after cases have been dramatically reduced via lockdown.
If they are correct, then one would expect to see normal life return by mid-June.
Kinabalu, I hadn`t realised that companies have to pay the 20%. I assumed that the employee got "just" 80% from the government because it allowed for a 20% income tax deduction. Are you sure?
If, as seems logical to assume, other businesses are suffering similar precipitous declines in physical sales then I'm sure you're right and that this will be just the first in a tsunami wave of closures. In a couple of weeks' time you would think that physical retail will consist principally of grocery, pharmacy, takeaway food and places like builders' merchants that mostly or solely sell to tradespeople. In terms of the rest of the High Street you'd think that dentists, opticians and hairdressers will probably keep trading as well, and that'll be about it.
Straws clutching?
Indeed, the one ray of hope with Italy yesterday is that they raised their testing numbers from 17,000 to 24,000. The more people you can catch, especially if they're in jobs where they still have contact with people, the more you can slow CV-19 down.
So a bit of wrongness on both sides, can we agree?
I put "gaming" in inverteds because all of this is probably priced in by the authors of the package.
Required reading for minimising fuckwits, and everybody else.
Need to mull that one over.
Italy reported cases of 47,000 is about 0.1% of the population.
Iran reported cases of 20,000 is about 0.025% of the population.
I think these are at 100 times under reported. The iceberg.
- having people report symptoms early
- testing people in and around those who test positive
Now, I can see that not working in places with no healthcare. And I can see that we lack the testing infrastucture (currently) do do that.
But it doesn't seem to need any societal change.
I have now adopted the use of a stress ball to avoid touching my face.
Much more important than CV-19.
We watched Clueless last night. It's a quarter century old, and Paul Rudd is in it.
And Paul Rudd looks exactly the same age now as then. Is that not creepy? Why has no-one noticed this? Is he some kind of alien?
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285
This article also says: "Italy showed a higher influenza attributable excess mortality compared to other European countries. especially in the elderly."
Regarding self isolation, surely the simple answer is to make it pay to self isolate.
As for the 20%, AIUI that is optional. The government pays 80% and encourages the company to top it up so the employee loses nothing.
https://twitter.com/balazscseko/status/1241272447187419137
And they get - what - two weeks of sick pay. Doesn't seem that much on an incentive. But maybe you know more unemployable people than me.
Partly because they more or less skipped the PC phase of tech and went straight to mobile phone apps.
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1241395755690135552
Deaths, while horrendous, are also a trailing indicator. I'm more interested in:
(a) infections by region
(b) number of tests being adminsitered
Company with staff WFH that has a balance sheet strong enough to ride this out for quite some time.
Change the status of those staff from WFH (due to crisis) to On Furlough (due to crisis).
80% please.
The idea is fundamentally not that complex.
You get people to report the very earliest symptoms. You get them tested within an hour or reporting in. If they test positive, you contact (and test) the 100 people they've been most likely to be in contact with.
Now, it might be *harder* in the UK. And it certainly requires us to have infrastructure we don't right now. And maybe we might want to have the flexibility to do local lockdowns if necessary.
But it doesn't require any great societal change. It just requires the government to have a large testing organisation with thousands of employees and the ability to do tests very quickly. It also requires that the "base" level of infection is less than 50 or 100 people a day, so that you have the resources to do it.
https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1241402681161179142
"Staff will receive free burials when it's over" would be a lot more chilling.
At least it assumes staff will be alive at the end of this process.
Italian national update will be devasting
Stay safe
And lacked the sort of privacy laws which prevented it happening without legislation; further, had ready made systems in place thanks to their experience of SARS -
https://www.lawfareblog.com/lessons-america-how-south-korean-authorities-used-law-fight-coronavirus
Yes, we could do this stuff, but at the moment, we’ve just been scrambling to keep pace with events.