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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swing for the moment. How the country shifted at GE2019

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    edited March 2020
    RobD said:

    I heard he was using a magic eight ball.
    http://www.ask8ball.net/

    Boris asks it: How do I defeat coronavirus?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    "Drunk British holidaymakers clash with police armed with batons in Benidorm"

    www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8112691/Drunk-British-holidaymakers-clash-police-armed-batons-Benidorm.html
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited March 2020
    ydoethur said:

    Depends on whether supply chains are disrupted, and for how long.
    Supply chains for toilet paper and soap aren't going to be disrupted for a considerable time, if at all. What you have at the moment and so far is simply periodic crises of demand in out of town supermarkets.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,570

    If the idiotic panic buying continues then yes, definitely
    By definition, that is unlikely to last for long. But these travel restrictions are becoming a worry.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,080
    Pulpstar said:

    Time to ban travel from France.
    As long as they don't ban travel TO France.

    I have a skiing holiday booked for 11 April with my grandchildren in the French Alps with ClubMed. They are still taking bookings so who knows. I booked a year ago.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,858
    edited March 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    "Drunk British holidaymakers clash with police armed with batons in Benidorm"

    www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8112691/Drunk-British-holidaymakers-clash-police-armed-batons-Benidorm.html

    It was a horrifying incident in February half term when I found a Jet2 Holidays coach parked in El Campello. The idea of bringing Benidorm Brits to my lovely Spanish seaside town was ewwwww....

    Happily no Jet2 advertised holiday destinations round there advertised. Phew.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    Barnesian said:

    As long as they don't ban travel TO France.

    I have a skiing holiday booked for 11 April with my grandchildren in the French Alps with ClubMed. They are still taking bookings so who knows. I booked a year ago.
    I think you should prepare yourself for a disappointment tbh.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698
    So while I am allegedly skiving off by working from home, those conscientious types who make it in to the office are actually sat in the traps all morning dropping their guts and stinking the place out.

    Shit before shower is the correct sequence of morning ablutions.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133

    From comparing the figures, one would have to consider that cultural norms on closeness and touching, and maybe also others too, might be playing a part. Looking at the outcomes as a proportion of the cases, Spain and Italy seem to be suffering particularly badly from the disease so far, Britain, Germany and Scandinavia - again, so far - apparently not as badly, and France apparently in the middle.

    These are all obviously only early indications, though, which might all change.
    Let’s hope that standing far apart and shouting at each other works for the US, then?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,609

    You should publish the how-to guide on this, it's probably worth money. Might even be worth seeing if you could sell it freelance to one of the more armageddon-led newspapers...
    I bet you can do much better than that if you choose sufficiently calorie-dense foodstuffs.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited March 2020
    IanB2 said:

    Let’s hope that standing far apart and shouting at each other works for the US, then?
    I dread the US's lack of preparedness in its infrastructure and ideas about public health - let's hope it gets better.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Andy_JS said:

    "Drunk British holidaymakers clash with police armed with batons in Benidorm"

    www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8112691/Drunk-British-holidaymakers-clash-police-armed-batons-Benidorm.html

    Proud to be British! Stop the flights which they are doing we have enough to deal with without them. It probably could have been predicted though
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570

    You should publish the how-to guide on this, it's probably worth money. Might even be worth seeing if you could sell it freelance to one of the more armageddon-led newspapers...
    Mail headline: "Sold-out Saturday"
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    Barnesian said:

    As long as they don't ban travel TO France.

    I have a skiing holiday booked for 11 April with my grandchildren in the French Alps with ClubMed. They are still taking bookings so who knows. I booked a year ago.
    You might want to re-think....Norfolk has no one yet with Coronavius and there is a dry ski slope at Norwich....

    I think you need to think of the 2 hopes for that holiday.....Bob Hope..and ??
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited March 2020
    Letter writing campaigns have started up again,

    Coronavirus: Scientists say UK virus strategy is 'risking lives'

    In an open letter, a group of 229 scientists from UK universities say the government's current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and "risk many more lives than necessary".

    In a separate letter to the government, more than 200 behavioural scientists have questioned the government's argument that starting tougher measures too soon would lead to people not sticking to them just at the point that the epidemic is at its height.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570

    This looks like BS from someone who should know better. We have been in an 'exponential phase' since Feb 27th at least. The increase has been a straight line against a logarithmic scale since 27th Feb.
    Nah. He's from University of Leeds, the finest educational institution in the known world.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,080
    edited March 2020

    I think you should prepare yourself for a disappointment tbh.
    I am prepared. It's the grandchildren who aren't. Maybe I can arrange something in Virtual Reality with Oculus Quests.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9ZAtePK6gI
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    edited March 2020
    I read Koontz's "Eyes of Darkness" this afternoon...supposedly prescient of the crisis...

    Fucking waste of an afternoon...life is too short to read shit books
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,235

    My step-mum, bless her, once said, ‘Does the Pope shit in the woods?!’

    Cue general hilarity...
    I was once told a drunken story about a French farmer who had a tame black bear and brought it to Mass every Sunday.....
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited March 2020
    Just imagine travelling back three months in time to December and telling yourself that half of Europe would have closed its borders and be in lockdown, thousands of citizens were facing death, the US had banned flights from the UK and that people were fighting in the supermarket aisles over toilet roll.

    You wouldn’t believe it (or assumed No Deal Brexit had happened...)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    Letter writing campaigns have started up again,

    Coronavirus: Scientists say UK virus strategy is 'risking lives'

    In an open letter, a group of 229 scientists from UK universities say the government's current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and "risk many more lives than necessary".

    In a separate letter to the government, more than 200 behavioural scientists have questioned the government's argument that starting tougher measures too soon would lead to people not sticking to them just at the point that the epidemic is at its height.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402

    You can see why the government set up a Ministry of Information in 1918 and 1939. It isn't good for national morale to have the experts disagreeing with each other in public.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    edited March 2020

    Letter writing campaigns have started up again,

    Coronavirus: Scientists say UK virus strategy is 'risking lives'

    In an open letter, a group of 229 scientists from UK universities say the government's current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and "risk many more lives than necessary".

    In a separate letter to the government, more than 200 behavioural scientists have questioned the government's argument that starting tougher measures too soon would lead to people not sticking to them just at the point that the epidemic is at its height.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402

    I mean just look what happened in Spain. Closing of schools etc. led to people congregating in parks, restaurants and bars. Probably made things worse in the long run.


    The second letter called on the government to reconsider its stance on "behavioural fatigue" and to share the evidence on which it based this stance.

    So they haven't seen the evidence the government used, but are saying it is wrong anyway?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531
    Alistair said:

    6 months worth of food can fit into just over a cubic meter if you buy smart and pack well. That's with a shopping list including olives and capers not just boring shit.
    A cubic metre is a surprisingly large area.

    It is the same as a thousand litres or enough space for the beer from two thousand 500ml bottles.

    The equivalent of about five pints a day for a year.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    Letter writing campaigns have started up again,

    Coronavirus: Scientists say UK virus strategy is 'risking lives'

    In an open letter, a group of 229 scientists from UK universities say the government's current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and "risk many more lives than necessary".

    In a separate letter to the government, more than 200 behavioural scientists have questioned the government's argument that starting tougher measures too soon would lead to people not sticking to them just at the point that the epidemic is at its height.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402

    and the first reference in the first letter is from our friend the motivational speaker. You couldn't make it up :D
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303

    A cubic metre is a surprisingly large area.

    It is the same as a thousand litres or enough space for the beer from two thousand 500ml bottles.

    The equivalent of about five pints a day for a year.
    Volume, not area!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    RobD said:

    and the first reference in the first letter is from our friend the motivational speaker. You couldn't make it up :D
    Oh no, not him again.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    edited March 2020
    I've eaten now a full box of Pringles and a pot noodle (large) from my Coronavirus supplies in the last 24 hours..my (Italian) wife is disgusted with me.....

    Is it me, or are the British a bit partial to eating absolute shyte? I think it's genetic...
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited March 2020

    This looks like BS from someone who should know better. We have been in an 'exponential phase' since Feb 27th at least. The increase has been a straight line against a logarithmic scale since 27th Feb.
    Not sure how fair your criticism of the "exponential growth" comment is, bearing in mind the experts are trying to simplify their language to talk to the general public. I think he's trying to get across that we're now on the bit of the epidemic curve (the upside-down U thing that looks vaguely bell-shaped but isn't actually Gaussian) where it's kinked distinctly upwards. Yes, strictly speaking the flatter but rising bit before then is also part of exponential growth (which describes the initial phase of an epidemic well, when almost all people are still susceptible so the net reproduction number is basically the same as R0) but the main point he is trying to convey to the general public is "it's going to continue going up steeply from here", which is what Joe Bloggs thinks "exponential growth" means (rather than consistent daily % changes or a line of constant gradient on a log-scale graph). Effectively, he's saying "from this point on, that exponential growth is biting and is really going to hurt".

    You might think I'm cutting him a bit too much slack and if so fair enough, but he's not trying to apply technically correct terminology so amateur epidemiologists (don't mean that in a negative sense, just literally mean the kind of non-professionals who would nevertheless like to look at a log-scale graph and see where trends are) can keep up with where the professionals are at right now, he's got a different target audience here.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    edited March 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    Oh no, not him again.
    And check out the job titles of those that have signed it

    Professor of Mathematics
    Professor of Applied Mathematics
    Lecturer in Optimisation
    PhD Student in Pure Mathematics (!)...

    There are only two people with epidemiology in their title, and one is a mathematician.

    I think the CMO and his advisors are more well suited to be advising on this than these people.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531
    Thanks to AM for the electoral analysis.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367

    Letter writing campaigns have started up again,

    Coronavirus: Scientists say UK virus strategy is 'risking lives'

    In an open letter, a group of 229 scientists from UK universities say the government's current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and "risk many more lives than necessary".

    In a separate letter to the government, more than 200 behavioural scientists have questioned the government's argument that starting tougher measures too soon would lead to people not sticking to them just at the point that the epidemic is at its height.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402

    I saw an article earlier about the US intelligence community (CIA and DIA NCMI) providing medical intelligence about other countries. I had a hunch such things were going on. It's quite probable that the US, UK and likely other governments have private views about the apparent "success" some other countries are having. The assumption that the public data is meaningful and easily comparable seems to drive a lot of the "you are doing it wrong" clamour, but it's not the only data the decision makers have.
  • tyson said:

    I've eaten now a full box of Pringles and a pot noodle (large) from my Coronavirus supplies in the last 24 hours..my (Italian) wife is disgusted with me.....

    Is it me, or are the British a bit partial to eating absolute shyte? I think it's genetic...

    I'm working on the assumption that restrictions are coming and soon. So take away goodness it is whikst we're still allowed. You want to talk about eating absolute shyte? Up here on Teesside we have the Parmo...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    Barnesian said:

    As long as they don't ban travel TO France.

    I have a skiing holiday booked for 11 April with my grandchildren in the French Alps with ClubMed.
    No, you really don't.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133

    A cubic metre is a surprisingly large area.

    It is the same as a thousand litres or enough space for the beer from two thousand 500ml bottles.

    The equivalent of about five pints a day for a year.
    It is if it’s in the middle of the living room floor. If it’s under the bed or up on some shelves, it’s a lot smaller!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    glw said:

    I saw an article earlier about the US intelligence community (CIA and DIA NCMI) providing medical intelligence about other countries. I had a hunch such things were going on. It's quite probable that the US, UK and likely other governments have private views about the apparent "success" some other countries are having. The assumption that the public data is meaningful and easily comparable seems to drive a lot of the "you are doing it wrong" clamour, but it's not the only data the decision makers have.
    Cough cough China...
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121

    Just imagine travelling back three months in time to December and telling yourself that half of Europe would have closed its borders and be in lockdown, thousands of citizens were facing death, the US had banned flights from the UK and that people were fighting in the supermarket aisles over toilet roll.

    You wouldn’t believe it (or assumed No Deal Brexit had happened...)

    I posted yesterday....if China had noticed that small cluster of elderly patients suffering from a strange strain of pneumonia in Wuhen towards the end of November, and taken simple steps of isolation, and checking and isolating wider contracts....Covid 19 might have just made it on page 6 on the world section of the Guardian with a couple of paras....
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    Volume, not area!
    Fun fact - a cubic metre of water weighs near enough a (metric) tonne.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Genuine question for any of our medical folks: are oxygen concentrators worthwhile or not?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    Cough cough China...
    That's quite a cough you have there..... time for your isolation.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121

    I'm working on the assumption that restrictions are coming and soon. So take away goodness it is whikst we're still allowed. You want to talk about eating absolute shyte? Up here on Teesside we have the Parmo...
    What's a Parmo?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    This might be another reason why the UK is now deemphasizing testing for epidemiological controls, and reserving it for treatment:

    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0299_article

    Basically, from this article, it appears we can be infected simultaneously with both flu and COVID, and that in theses cases nasopharyngeal swab and sputum samples can repeatedly test negative for COVID, while after admission to ICU bronchial lavage and sputum samples test positive.

    I don't know precisely what this means in terms of what is going on with the two viruses, but perhaps a co-infection with flu is crowding COVID out from replicating in the upper respiratory tract. Be interesting to find out more on this.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    edited March 2020
    tyson said:

    What's a Parmo?
    A little slice of heart attack heaven.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parmo
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572

    Cough cough China...
    Sorry, that's 14 days self-isolation.....
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    If the idiotic panic buying continues then yes, definitely
    We are pretty much under orders to be prepared to self-isolate, which necessarily entails people who shop every couple of days laying in 7 x normal shops in one go. This is prudent, rational, public-spirited and inevitable. What data do you have on how shopping of this sort compares in volume with idiotic panic buying?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550

    Sorry, that's 14 days self-isolation.....
    Good job I have 1000 bog rolls then :-)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    edited March 2020

    Fun fact - a cubic metre of water weighs near enough a (metric) tonne.
    Er... precisely a metric tonne surely, given that a gramme was defined as the weight of 1cc of water in 1795?

    http://smdsi.quartier-rural.org/histoire/18germ_3.htm
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121

    A little slice of heart attack heaven.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parmo

    That is fucking disgusting.......with a capital D and yuck....
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,080

    No, you really don't.....
    I do. My Italian skiing holiday was cut short last week.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,688

    If they find the culprit, surely a case for trial by the Master of the Rolls?
    Unless he made a Kleenex escape.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    glw said:

    I saw an article earlier about the US intelligence community (CIA and DIA NCMI) providing medical intelligence about other countries. I had a hunch such things were going on. It's quite probable that the US, UK and likely other governments have private views about the apparent "success" some other countries are having. The assumption that the public data is meaningful and easily comparable seems to drive a lot of the "you are doing it wrong" clamour, but it's not the only data the decision makers have.
    Indeed. At this stage, it would be foolish to treat any of the data coming from anywhere with high confidence.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,080

    Fun fact - a cubic metre of water weighs near enough a (metric) tonne.
    Exactly a tonne at 4C.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698

    I'm working on the assumption that restrictions are coming and soon. So take away goodness it is whikst we're still allowed. You want to talk about eating absolute shyte? Up here on Teesside we have the Parmo...
    The only good thing about Teesside!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    Fun fact - a cubic metre of water weighs near enough a (metric) tonne.
    In theory I think it is supposed to weigh exactly a metric tonne. That is how it was designed.

    The original definition of 1g was the mass of 1ml of water. This was the standard until 1799 when it was abandoned because of course the density of water changes with temperature. But whilst they changed the definition they didn't change the relationship.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Er... precisely a metric tonne surely, given that a gramme was defined as the weight of 1cc of water in 1795?

    http://smdsi.quartier-rural.org/histoire/18germ_3.htm
    Only if it's pure water, and unbottled.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531

    A little slice of heart attack heaven.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parmo
    The Hull alternative is the pattie - deep fried potato served with chips.

    https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/43aa3b/hull-patties-are-the-deep-fried-potato-snack-everyone-should-know-about
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    Anyway..when we are all locked in...inevitable now in a matter a couple of weeks and most probably sooner....

    How many hits will pbCOM get a day??
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    tyson said:

    I've eaten now a full box of Pringles and a pot noodle (large) from my Coronavirus supplies in the last 24 hours..my (Italian) wife is disgusted with me.....

    Is it me, or are the British a bit partial to eating absolute shyte? I think it's genetic...


    This made me laugh. Thanks, tyson.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121

    The Hull alternative is the pattie - deep fried potato served with chips.

    https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/43aa3b/hull-patties-are-the-deep-fried-potato-snack-everyone-should-know-about
    Lots of pubs/restaurants cheat by deep frying potatoes and calling them roasties
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    NYT:

    "France announced on Saturday the closing of all “non-indispensable” businesses as of midnight, including restaurants, bars, and movie theaters.

    Prime Minister Édouard Philippe said the only exceptions would be grocery stores, drugstores, banks, gas stations, and tobacconists where the French buy official government payment coupons."

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531
    TimT said:

    This might be another reason why the UK is now deemphasizing testing for epidemiological controls, and reserving it for treatment:

    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0299_article

    Basically, from this article, it appears we can be infected simultaneously with both flu and COVID, and that in theses cases nasopharyngeal swab and sputum samples can repeatedly test negative for COVID, while after admission to ICU bronchial lavage and sputum samples test positive.

    I don't know precisely what this means in terms of what is going on with the two viruses, but perhaps a co-infection with flu is crowding COVID out from replicating in the upper respiratory tract. Be interesting to find out more on this.

    Keep posting, you're one of the most knowledgeable and thoughtful PBers.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,080
    tyson said:

    Anyway..when we are all locked in...inevitable now in a matter a couple of weeks and most probably sooner....

    How many hits will pbCOM get a day??

    I'm locked in. pcCOM is a godsend. Equivalent to the pub. But I find I'm eating and drinking too much. It's just too easy.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592

    The Hull alternative is the pattie - deep fried potato served with chips.

    https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/43aa3b/hull-patties-are-the-deep-fried-potato-snack-everyone-should-know-about
    So a chip, served with chips?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited March 2020
    It might be healthier to wash your bottom with water rather than use toilet paper. Do we have any experts on this?
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    RobD said:

    and the first reference in the first letter is from our friend the motivational speaker. You couldn't make it up :D

    If anyone can excuse my hero-worship of WJE or tolerate a dose of Tomas Pueyo, motivational speaker and marketing guy, then skip 10 mins into this.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C98FmoZVbjs

    Incidentally the Express clearly didn't see the contest like I did - 'Want to kill 200k people?' Expert left face in hands as he crushes UK's coronavirus plan...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    .
    It would have more (any) weight if more than one of them was actually an epidemiologist. Instead, you have professors of pure mathematics and astronomy. Perhaps the CMO and his team know slightly more about what is happening than these people?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    No, you really don't.....
    Yes he does. Darwin awards are earned, not given away with the rations.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Keep posting, you're one of the most knowledgeable and thoughtful PBers.
    We are fortunate to have timT I read every post.

    Why exactly does seasonal influenza die out with season change Tim?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
    It really doesn't.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698

    Er... precisely a metric tonne surely, given that a gramme was defined as the weight of 1cc of water in 1795?

    http://smdsi.quartier-rural.org/histoire/18germ_3.htm
    Depends on the salinity.
  • The only good thing about Teesside!
    I totally get the smoggieland tag - but that pollution is jobs. And the Cleveland Hills are beautiful, as is Saltburn. Though at the moment we are in full research mode about a move to northern Aberdeenshire. Having been up to visit my brother and his family after their move up from Bury I'm sold on the start again somewhere better idea. And CV19 destroying all before it might provide the excuse to do it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    What city/region?
    Central London. US intelligence attaché is on the board ex officio
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Barnesian said:

    I'm locked in. pcCOM is a godsend. Equivalent to the pub. But I find I'm eating and drinking too much. It's just too easy.
    It would though be even better if we occasionally, just occasionally, talked about something else.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited March 2020

    This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
    Does it...Did you look at those signatures. When they say 200 academics, there are an absolute load of PhD students in unrelated subjects, no offence to them, but they know square root of f##k all about this (and I have a PhD).
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,080
    So Trump has had a test for covid-19 and the result will be known "in a day or two". What odds he's positive? I'd say 5/1 against. It'll make a difference to the betting if he is.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    Cyclefree said:

    It would though be even better if we occasionally, just occasionally, talked about something else.
    Wanna go back to Brexit? ;)
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
    No it doesn't. None of them are experts in the relevant field. This is like when that doctor with a vendetta against rugby got a whole load of gender studies doctorates to sign her letter.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    Does it...Did you look at those signatures. When they say 200 academics, there are an absolute load of PhD students in unrelated subjects, no offence to them, but they know square root of f##k all about this (and I have a PhD).
    I'm actually quite annoyed the BBC didn't make this clear. I got the impression it was going to be 200+ doctors or professors of medicine.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited March 2020

    A cubic metre is a surprisingly large area.

    It is the same as a thousand litres or enough space for the beer from two thousand 500ml bottles.

    The equivalent of about five pints a day for a year.
    Exactly, the trick is a cubic meter is fucking huge. Of course unless you have you meals planned out for 4 of those 6 months it wouldn't be practical to store in the most compact form as there's not way to 'dig in' to the middle of the cube to retrieve some bourbon biscuits when you want a wee snack.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Either that or we are just a bit further behind on the timeline.
    Amnog is shit.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531
    maaarsh said:

    So a chip, served with chips?
    More like a giant hash brown served with chips.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    Barnesian said:

    I'm locked in. pcCOM is a godsend. Equivalent to the pub. But I find I'm eating and drinking too much. It's just too easy.
    Same here...boredom munching.....I read a Koontz novel this afternoon which was a waste of time

    I am getting inundated with calls from my Italian connections...most think the UK have gone bonkers with this herd thinking....

    But...my friends (and in law family) in flats...the trend of congregating on the balconies and singing is really touching....
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    egg said:

    We are fortunate to have timT I read every post.

    Why exactly does seasonal influenza die out with season change Tim?
    At least two factors:
    1. The virus survives best outside the body within a temperature and humidity range.
    2. Human behavioural patterns - more crowding together inside in winter - affecting transmission
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    RobD said:

    .

    It would have more (any) weight if more than one of them was actually an epidemiologist. Instead, you have professors of pure mathematics and astronomy. Perhaps the CMO and his team know slightly more about what is happening than these people?
    They really should be ashamed of themselves. If any of them are remotely qualified they will be able to raise any relevant points in private. This sort of grandstanding crap in the middle of a crisis can only achieve an increase in anxiety for plenty of people who could do without it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited March 2020
    RobD said:

    I'm actually quite annoyed the BBC didn't make this clear. I got the impression it was going to be 200+ doctors or professors of medicine.
    This is really irresponsible of the BBC. Again these aren't normal times.

    I am quite happy for the WHO to chime in, but to have 50+ PhDs in maths and physics be used for political points scoring (and have the nation even further doubting the strategy).

    In fact looking through, the vast vast majority are PhD or Post Doc in unrelated fields.

    Edit - They have included MSc students !!!

    This is bloody worse than the fake news Newsnight scoreboard.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    edited March 2020
    maaarsh said:

    They really should be ashamed of themselves. If any of them are remotely qualified they will be able to raise any relevant points in private. This sort of grandstanding crap in the middle of a crisis can only achieve an increase in anxiety for plenty of people who could do without it.
    Agreed entirely. Bad enough having people spout bollocks on twitter, but this is on another level.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,080
    Cyclefree said:

    It would though be even better if we occasionally, just occasionally, talked about something else.
    I keep talking about skiing. I love it. The adrenaline. The edge.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited March 2020

    In theory I think it is supposed to weigh exactly a metric tonne. That is how it was designed.

    The original definition of 1g was the mass of 1ml of water. This was the standard until 1799 when it was abandoned because of course the density of water changes with temperature. But whilst they changed the definition they didn't change the relationship.
    Yes, great summary Richard, hence my "near enough". A lot of non-technical people are very surprised at how much what seems a fairly small volume of water weighs... unless they're into aquariums!
    Barnesian said:

    Exactly a tonne at 4C.

    Actually not quite! Water has a density of 0.999972ish g/cm³ at 3.984 °C (can't find a source with more decimal places than that...)

    So accurate within 30 parts per million which is still pretty good. Like I said, "near enough"!

    Thanks all for the replies. May the grand tradition of pedantry on PB.com stay with us and give us many sources of merry distractions through the trying times ahead :smile:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    Depends on the salinity.
    Water, as in pure H2O, has no salinity.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    Barnesian said:

    I keep talking about skiing. I love it. The adrenaline. The edge.
    And that's just waiting to see if you can go.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    TimT said:


    This made me laugh. Thanks, tyson.
    I am now on the boiled sweet supplies.....

    Seriously, it is shocking how quickly I can overwhelmingly reverse years of reasonably good dietary habits....
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531
    Cyclefree said:

    It would though be even better if we occasionally, just occasionally, talked about something else.
    How about some PB reminiscing.

    Does anyone have a favourite anecdote from the SeanT collective ?

    I liked 'farmy farm' which related to Gordon Brown's supposed toy farm hobby.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    This is really irresponsible of the BBC. Again these aren't normal times.

    I am quite happy for the WHO to chime in, but to have 50+ PhDs in maths and physics be used for political points scoring (and have the nation even further doubting the strategy).

    In fact looking through, the vast vast majority are PhD or Post Doc in unrelated fields.

    Edit - They have included MSc students !!!
    MSc students? Bugger off Chris Whitty, now the real experts have arrived.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    Andy_JS said:

    You can see why the government set up a Ministry of Information in 1918 and 1939. It isn't good for national morale to have the experts disagreeing with each other in public.
    Interesting letter, and for all I know they are right. But it seems clear that a number of epidemiologists sympathise with the Government's advisers line. The letter is a bit coy about two key things: what sort of distancing measures and for how long; and are they sure this thing can be controlled better by their method and that a lot fewer will die in the long run? Personally I am not persuaded and think Whitty and Vallance may be on the right lines.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited March 2020
    Second letter is the same, half are PhD students and also include people who just have a BA.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Chameleon said:

    No it doesn't. None of them are experts in the relevant field. This is like when that doctor with a vendetta against rugby got a whole load of gender studies doctorates to sign her letter.
    Nah the Govt policy is shite. Absolute shite. Everyone's talking about it.

    Boris will flip flop - has to.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    At this rate there are going to be enormous numbers of companies going bust all over the developed world. Not just little ones like bars, the airlines too. Which will create a massive economic problem as swathes of people find themselves unable to pay for food if they can find any in the shops.

    Which government is going to launch a universal basic income first...?

    The advantage of having our own currency is we can print money to bail them out
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Barnesian said:

    So Trump has had a test for covid-19 and the result will be known "in a day or two". What odds he's positive? I'd say 5/1 against. It'll make a difference to the betting if he is.

    He looked better today tbh.
This discussion has been closed.