This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
No it doesn't. None of them are experts in the relevant field. This is like when that doctor with a vendetta against rugby got a whole load of gender studies doctorates to sign her letter.
Nah the Govt policy is shite. Absolute shite. Everyone's talking about it.
Coronavirus: Scientists say UK virus strategy is 'risking lives'
In an open letter, a group of 229 scientists from UK universities say the government's current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and "risk many more lives than necessary".
In a separate letter to the government, more than 200 behavioural scientists have questioned the government's argument that starting tougher measures too soon would lead to people not sticking to them just at the point that the epidemic is at its height.
If the Government, informed by the opinion of its trusted expert advisers, believes that it is right then it should ignore the letter writers, unless or until it is in possession of evidence to come around to their point of view.
I've just been out tonight and had dinner - evidence of healthy trade where we were, and at all the other establishments located along the walk back home. When this thing comes to the crunch and people may have to exist under Italian-style restrictions then so be it, but right now it's essential that the economy operates in as near normal a fashion as possible, so that more businesses survive this crisis, fewer people find themselves on the dole and less long-term damage is done.
Remember, Governments have always had to balance the cost of protecting life against the cost of maintaining wider society, and will always have to do so. Increased impoverishment also has its consequences in terms of poor health and premature death. The life of the small business owner who throws herself in front of a train having been bankrupted and seen her life's work come to nothing is just as valuable as that of a Covid victim - as is that of a hospital patient who perishes for want of a drug or piece of medical equipment that the taxpayer can no longer afford to purchase because people are too poor.
Economically damaging measures such as mass school closures will need to be taken as this crisis unfolds, but they should only be taken when it is essential to do so and not because somebody writing in a newspaper claims that it is.
Incidentally the reason I know you can fit all that food into a cubic meter is from doing the sums when NoDeal Brexit stockpiling (obviously we still have the majority of that stock pile! ).
When we worked out how much volume all the food was going to take up we had to redo the sums 3 times before going "Yeah, it really is that little space".
This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
Does it...Did you look at those signatures. When they say 200 academics, there are an absolute load of PhD students in unrelated subjects, no offence to them, but they know square root of f##k all about this (and I have a PhD).
Seem to be a lot of mathematicians in there and an astronomer thrown in for good measure. There are also several whose subjects aren't specified (fine art, modern languages, archeology?)
This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
Does it...Did you look at those signatures. When they say 200 academics, there are an absolute load of PhD students in unrelated subjects, no offence to them, but they know square root of f##k all about this (and I have a PhD).
Seem to be a lot of mathematicians in there and an astronomer thrown in for good measure. There are also several whose subjects aren't specified (fine art, modern languages, archeology?)
No wonder the government's strategy is so crap, they don't have astronomers on the advisory panel.
It seems from European countries that release data (Spain / Italy / France - I wish we did the same!) that the % of cases in the ICU is between 4 and 8% approximately (Italy is on the higher end but has been declining over the last few days quite considerably).
I wonder if we are using this sort of number to determine how many infections we can tolerate before imposing lockdown, after which the number of new infections will slow drastically before shrinking? That would be a way to stretch the epidemic without leading to an increased mortality rate here?
Also, note that the new localised data suggests we may have a cluster developing in London and one also in Hampshire (perhaps related to the Basingstoke story that was posted here yesterday?
Yes I get community by community data for infections, hospitalized, icu and treated at home quite frequently. 4 to 8% is about right 15% hospitalized. I’m sure this info is feeding the uk planning. Cluttering is the feder for the bud I’m afraid. Not sure what the critical mass is but once it is reached it starts to take off. .
The government need to get on the blower to the BBC and tell them this shit isn't on. They need to make it crystal clear this isn't 200 experts in the field, it is 200 random people involved in academia across a whole load of fields who have nothing to do with this.
We aren't playing silly political games like the usual crap when a load of charities write to the Guardian saying the government are a load of meanies and we find out that it was a Labour political who phoned up all their mates.
Anyway..when we are all locked in...inevitable now in a matter a couple of weeks and most probably sooner....
How many hits will pbCOM get a day??
I'm locked in. pcCOM is a godsend. Equivalent to the pub. But I find I'm eating and drinking too much. It's just too easy.
It would though be even better if we occasionally, just occasionally, talked about something else.
I keep talking about skiing. I love it. The adrenaline. The edge.
My dislocated shoulder....that was the last time I put on a set of skis....
I'd ski'd beautifully all week (not fallen once)...my last day, I was leaving the cable car and fell really innocuously adjusting my goggles.. 7 years ago....
This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
No it doesn't. None of them are experts in the relevant field. This is like when that doctor with a vendetta against rugby got a whole load of gender studies doctorates to sign her letter.
Nah the Govt policy is shite. Absolute shite. Everyone's talking about it.
Boris will flip flop - has to.
I don't know if he will flip or not but I hope not because it would mean he was ignoring his own scientific advisors just for PR purposes which would be an extremely dangerous thing to do.
This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
No it doesn't. None of them are experts in the relevant field. This is like when that doctor with a vendetta against rugby got a whole load of gender studies doctorates to sign her letter.
Nah the Govt policy is shite. Absolute shite. Everyone's talking about it.
Boris will flip flop - has to.
And your epidemiology credentials are? Of all countries to be with Germany, Iceland, and the UK isn't a bad trio when it come to taking a fact based approach.
This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
Does it...Did you look at those signatures. When they say 200 academics, there are an absolute load of PhD students in unrelated subjects, no offence to them, but they know square root of f##k all about this (and I have a PhD).
Seem to be a lot of mathematicians in there and an astronomer thrown in for good measure. There are also several whose subjects aren't specified (fine art, modern languages, archeology?)
No wonder the government's strategy is so crap, they don't have astronomers on the advisory panel.
The government need to get on the blower to the BBC and tell them this shit isn't on. They need to make it crystal clear this isn't 200 experts in the field, it is 200 random people included in academia across a whole load of fields who have nothing to do with this.
The Beeb just can't fucking help themselves.
They are going to drive us to some draconian press restrictions during this crisis.
This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
Does it...Did you look at those signatures. When they say 200 academics, there are an absolute load of PhD students in unrelated subjects, no offence to them, but they know square root of f##k all about this (and I have a PhD).
Seem to be a lot of mathematicians in there and an astronomer thrown in for good measure. There are also several whose subjects aren't specified (fine art, modern languages, archeology?)
No wonder the government's strategy is so crap, they don't have astronomers on the advisory panel.
I think you mis-typed there, Rob. Surely you meant astrologers?
This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
Does it...Did you look at those signatures. When they say 200 academics, there are an absolute load of PhD students in unrelated subjects, no offence to them, but they know square root of f##k all about this (and I have a PhD).
Seem to be a lot of mathematicians in there and an astronomer thrown in for good measure. There are also several whose subjects aren't specified (fine art, modern languages, archeology?)
No wonder the government's strategy is so crap, they don't have astronomers on the advisory panel.
Nor the astrologers!
Or too many astrologers and not enough astronomers.
This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
Does it...Did you look at those signatures. When they say 200 academics, there are an absolute load of PhD students in unrelated subjects, no offence to them, but they know square root of f##k all about this (and I have a PhD).
Seem to be a lot of mathematicians in there and an astronomer thrown in for good measure. There are also several whose subjects aren't specified (fine art, modern languages, archeology?)
No wonder the government's strategy is so crap, they don't have astronomers on the advisory panel.
Nor the astrologers!
Why haven't the government asked Mystic Meg what she thinks the strategy should be...to be honest, she will probably give just as good as advice as Prof Farage.
This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
Does it...Did you look at those signatures. When they say 200 academics, there are an absolute load of PhD students in unrelated subjects, no offence to them, but they know square root of f##k all about this (and I have a PhD).
Seem to be a lot of mathematicians in there and an astronomer thrown in for good measure. There are also several whose subjects aren't specified (fine art, modern languages, archeology?)
No wonder the government's strategy is so crap, they don't have astronomers on the advisory panel.
I think you mis-typed there, Rob. Surely you meant astrologers?
Na, I was mocking the astronomy professor who thinks they know better than the CMO and their staff on how to handle this crisis.
The government need to get on the blower to the BBC and tell them this shit isn't on. They need to make it crystal clear this isn't 200 experts in the field, it is 200 random people included in academia across a whole load of fields who have nothing to do with this.
The Beeb just can't fucking help themselves.
They are going to drive us to some draconian press restrictions during this crisis.
One's thing for certain the notion that the BBC is an indispensable public service is waning by the day.
The government need to get on the blower to the BBC and tell them this shit isn't on. They need to make it crystal clear this isn't 200 experts in the field, it is 200 random people included in academia across a whole load of fields who have nothing to do with this.
The Beeb just can't fucking help themselves.
They are going to drive us to some draconian press restrictions during this crisis.
Yes, quite a few of these people have less right to comment than I do, and I accept I don’t know enough to contradict the CMO by a long way.
We spent some time picking the most qualified person to be CMO and instead of picking a random astronomer we picked Chris Whitty CB FRCP FFPH FMedSci, formerly Professor of Public and International Health at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and instrumental to the international work to address the Ebola outbreak. Mad, I know.
This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
Does it...Did you look at those signatures. When they say 200 academics, there are an absolute load of PhD students in unrelated subjects, no offence to them, but they know square root of f##k all about this (and I have a PhD).
Seem to be a lot of mathematicians in there and an astronomer thrown in for good measure. There are also several whose subjects aren't specified (fine art, modern languages, archeology?)
No wonder the government's strategy is so crap, they don't have astronomers on the advisory panel.
The government need to get on the blower to the BBC and tell them this shit isn't on. They need to make it crystal clear this isn't 200 experts in the field, it is 200 random people included in academia across a whole load of fields who have nothing to do with this.
The Beeb just can't fucking help themselves.
They are going to drive us to some draconian press restrictions during this crisis.
Yes, quite a few of these people have less right to comment than I do, and I accept I don’t know enough to contradict the CMO by a long way.
We spent some time picking the most qualified person to be CMO and instead of picking a random astronomer we picked Chris Whitty CB FRCP FFPH FMedSci, formerly Professor of Public and International Health at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and instrumental to the international work to address the Ebola outbreak. Mad, I know.
What you don't think we should listen to the random masters student or a lady with a BA? Its like basing public policy on a twitter poll or whatever Piers Morgan has spouted.
This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
Does it...Did you look at those signatures. When they say 200 academics, there are an absolute load of PhD students in unrelated subjects, no offence to them, but they know square root of f##k all about this (and I have a PhD).
Seem to be a lot of mathematicians in there and an astronomer thrown in for good measure. There are also several whose subjects aren't specified (fine art, modern languages, archeology?)
No wonder the government's strategy is so crap, they don't have astronomers on the advisory panel.
I think you mis-typed there, Rob. Surely you meant astrologers?
LoL!! TimT - are you still comfortable with the UK strategy? To me I don't see why it necessarily leads to a worse mortality rate than any other European country.
Not all about mortality rate anyway - economics and freedom issues are also large factors.
BTW what an excellent article (and colourful) map from Mr Meeks. Thank you. Doesn't it all seem a long time ago on some other planet. If the Government's plan for most of us not dying comes off it will be very useful one day. If it doesn't, it is going to be of great use to historians when they try to remember who Boris Johnson was, why he was important, and what the colour blue used to mean in UK politics.
Panic buying is a slippery and dubious concept to identify, and generally more favourable to governments and those organising than individuals. What is irrational at one momemt can be immediately rational the next - I think rather the blanket condemnation of it it might be better for governments or supermarkets to focus on the positive - we everyone at some times might have reasons to buy more, but if we operate a more shared and gradual approach supplies are less likely to run out.
In the end there will be wartime style rationing, and things will calm down. Everyone will get their 1-2 rolls per bottom per week.
It's the few weeks of possible chaos/shortage between now and then that need to be bridged. And I mean chaos
You may well be right. This thing's now about getting ahead of the curve: if you spend too much time feeling guilty about what other people won't be getting because you've got it, you just end up becoming other people yourself. Once the panic buying gets past a certain critical mass, the first wave of them stop looking silly and start looking prescient - and, until the retailers and the Government itself take proper action to restore order, it's very much a case of every household for itself.
I have to be a bit choosy about what I stockpile because we've not got the space in the flat, but if we had a spare room I'd be filling it with at least two months' worth of long shelf life supplies.
Oh, and if everyone thinks it's bad now, wait until the order goes out for every vulnerable sick person and everyone over 70 to go into quarantine at once. It'll be like those scenes when Black Friday first arrived in Britain, or possibly even the 2011 London riots. Fisticuffs are inevitable; outright civil disorder and looting is a distinct possibility.
Yes, I think there will be some disorder, which is one reason I am fairly keen to leave London.
BTW I also have a fairly small flat, but I've just accepted that half the living room is going to be full of tinned sardines and M&S penne for a while. Either we will shift it to a bigger place outside London, or we will eat it here. The problem will solve itself in time.
Accepting all this is part of coping, I reckon.
6 months worth of food can fit into just over a cubic meter if you buy smart and pack well. That's with a shopping list including olives and capers not just boring shit.
A cubic metre is a surprisingly large area.
It is the same as a thousand litres or enough space for the beer from two thousand 500ml bottles.
The equivalent of about five pints a day for a year.
Volume, not area!
Fun fact - a cubic metre of water weighs near enough a (metric) tonne.
Er... precisely a metric tonne surely, given that a gramme was defined as the weight of 1cc of water in 1795?
This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
Does it...Did you look at those signatures. When they say 200 academics, there are an absolute load of PhD students in unrelated subjects, no offence to them, but they know square root of f##k all about this (and I have a PhD).
Seem to be a lot of mathematicians in there and an astronomer thrown in for good measure. There are also several whose subjects aren't specified (fine art, modern languages, archeology?)
No wonder the government's strategy is so crap, they don't have astronomers on the advisory panel.
Coronavirus: Scientists say UK virus strategy is 'risking lives'
In an open letter, a group of 229 scientists from UK universities say the government's current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and "risk many more lives than necessary".
In a separate letter to the government, more than 200 behavioural scientists have questioned the government's argument that starting tougher measures too soon would lead to people not sticking to them just at the point that the epidemic is at its height.
I mean just look what happened in Spain. Closing of schools etc. led to people congregating in parks, restaurants and bars. Probably made things worse in the long run.
The second letter called on the government to reconsider its stance on "behavioural fatigue" and to share the evidence on which it based this stance.
So they haven't seen the evidence the government used, but are saying it is wrong anyway?
It was politically effective in the Brexit Wars. McDonnell started it the other day. I have little doubt these letters are politically orchestrated and motivated
Anyway..when we are all locked in...inevitable now in a matter a couple of weeks and most probably sooner....
How many hits will pbCOM get a day??
I'm locked in. pcCOM is a godsend. Equivalent to the pub. But I find I'm eating and drinking too much. It's just too easy.
It would though be even better if we occasionally, just occasionally, talked about something else.
I keep talking about skiing. I love it. The adrenaline. The edge.
My dislocated shoulder....that was the last time I put on a set of skis....
I'd ski'd beautifully all week (not fallen once)...my last day, I was leaving the cable car and fell really innocuously adjusting my goggles.. 7 years ago....
That's how it happens - when you're not paying attention. On a moguled black you are paying attention.
This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
Does it...Did you look at those signatures. When they say 200 academics, there are an absolute load of PhD students in unrelated subjects, no offence to them, but they know square root of f##k all about this (and I have a PhD).
Seem to be a lot of mathematicians in there and an astronomer thrown in for good measure. There are also several whose subjects aren't specified (fine art, modern languages, archeology?)
No wonder the government's strategy is so crap, they don't have astronomers on the advisory panel.
Panic buying is a slippery and dubious concept to identify, and generally more favourable to governments and those organising than individuals. What is irrational at one momemt can be immediately rational the next - I think rather the blanket condemnation of it it might be better for governments or supermarkets to focus on the positive - we everyone at some times might have reasons to buy more, but if we operate a more shared and gradual approach supplies are less likely to run out.
In the end there will be wartime style rationing, and things will calm down. Everyone will get their 1-2 rolls per bottom per week.
It's the few weeks of possible chaos/shortage between now and then that need to be bridged. And I mean chaos
You may well be right. This thing's now about getting ahead of the curve: if you spend too much time feeling guilty about what other people won't be getting because you've got it, you just end up becoming other people yourself. Once the panic buying gets past a certain critical mass, the first wave of them stop looking silly and start looking prescient - and, until the retailers and the Government itself take proper action to restore order, it's very much a case of every household for itself.
I have to be a bit choosy about what I stockpile because we've not got the space in the flat, but if we had a spare room I'd be filling it with at least two months' worth of long shelf life supplies.
Oh, and if everyone thinks it's bad now, wait until the order goes out for every vulnerable sick person and everyone over 70 to go into quarantine at once. It'll be like those scenes when Black Friday first arrived in Britain, or possibly even the 2011 London riots. Fisticuffs are inevitable; outright civil disorder and looting is a distinct possibility.
Yes, I think there will be some disorder, which is one reason I am fairly keen to leave London.
BTW I also have a fairly small flat, but I've just accepted that half the living room is going to be full of tinned sardines and M&S penne for a while. Either we will shift it to a bigger place outside London, or we will eat it here. The problem will solve itself in time.
Accepting all this is part of coping, I reckon.
6 months worth of food can fit into just over a cubic meter if you buy smart and pack well. That's with a shopping list including olives and capers not just boring shit.
A cubic metre is a surprisingly large area.
It is the same as a thousand litres or enough space for the beer from two thousand 500ml bottles.
The equivalent of about five pints a day for a year.
Volume, not area!
Fun fact - a cubic metre of water weighs near enough a (metric) tonne.
I was going to comment on this, but I was too late...
It seems from European countries that release data (Spain / Italy / France - I wish we did the same!) that the % of cases in the ICU is between 4 and 8% approximately (Italy is on the higher end but has been declining over the last few days quite considerably).
I wonder if we are using this sort of number to determine how many infections we can tolerate before imposing lockdown, after which the number of new infections will slow drastically before shrinking? That would be a way to stretch the epidemic without leading to an increased mortality rate here?
Also, note that the new localised data suggests we may have a cluster developing in London and one also in Hampshire (perhaps related to the Basingstoke story that was posted here yesterday?
There seem to be very few cases in the Midlands. Just 2 in Birmingham for example out of population of 1.14 million according to this page. (Not sure when the last update was).
Anyway..when we are all locked in...inevitable now in a matter a couple of weeks and most probably sooner....
How many hits will pbCOM get a day??
I'm locked in. pcCOM is a godsend. Equivalent to the pub. But I find I'm eating and drinking too much. It's just too easy.
It would though be even better if we occasionally, just occasionally, talked about something else.
I keep talking about skiing. I love it. The adrenaline. The edge.
My dislocated shoulder....that was the last time I put on a set of skis....
I'd ski'd beautifully all week (not fallen once)...my last day, I was leaving the cable car and fell really innocuously adjusting my goggles.. 7 years ago....
I did the same in France. Last run of the day, dropped my ski pole, turned to see where it had gone and twisted my left knee tearing the cartilage. I got pulled down the mountain in one of those orange body bags. The doctor who treated me was dead good looking I remember.
A few years later I damaged the same knee in a cycling accident, though this time more seriously - ripping the cruciate ligament.
Ski-ing is great fun. I loved it when I went regularly. I wish I had started when younger, though.
While I am not arguing there won't be disruption, but a different era? Was the Spanish flu as transformative?
Difficult to tell because it came at the end of WW1. So certainly there was a massive cultural change over that period but it is difficult to know whether it could be ascribed to the flu or the war.
Mind you, we lost 80,000 in Britain to Hing Kong flu over a few months in 1968 and I don't think there was any real social change ascribed to that outbreak.
It seems from European countries that release data (Spain / Italy / France - I wish we did the same!) that the % of cases in the ICU is between 4 and 8% approximately (Italy is on the higher end but has been declining over the last few days quite considerably).
I wonder if we are using this sort of number to determine how many infections we can tolerate before imposing lockdown, after which the number of new infections will slow drastically before shrinking? That would be a way to stretch the epidemic without leading to an increased mortality rate here?
Also, note that the new localised data suggests we may have a cluster developing in London and one also in Hampshire (perhaps related to the Basingstoke story that was posted here yesterday?
There seem to be very few cases in the Midlands. Just 2 in Birmingham for example out of population of 1.14 million according to this page. (Not sure when the last update was).
Second letter is the same, half are PhD students and also include people who just have a BA.
I’d be much more interested to hear from the scientists making decisions in other countries on the UK plan. At least then you are comparing like with like.
This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
Oh my, the counter argument wings in - 800 Women's Institutes have now written a letter to the PM saying "Stay the distance. Oh, and here's some loganbrry jam."
They have equal weight.
Well, actually, with the jam, the WI letter is heavier.
Panic buying is a slippery and dubious concept to identify, and generally more favourable to governments and those organising than individuals. What is irrational at one momemt can be immediately rational the next - I think rather the blanket condemnation of it it might be better for governments or supermarkets to focus on the positive - we everyone at some times might have reasons to buy more, but if we operate a more shared and gradual approach supplies are less likely to run out.
In the end there will be wartime style rationing, and things will calm down. Everyone will get their 1-2 rolls per bottom per week.
It's the few weeks of possible chaos/shortage between now and then that need to be bridged. And I mean chaos
You may well be right. This thing's now about getting ahead of the curve: if you spend too much time feeling guilty about what other people won't be getting because you've got it, you just end up becoming other people yourself. Once the panic buying gets past a certain critical mass, the first wave of them stop looking silly and start looking prescient - and, until the retailers and the Government itself take proper action to restore order, it's very much a case of every household for itself.
I have to be a bit choosy about what I stockpile because we've not got the space in the flat, but if we had a spare room I'd be filling it with at least two months' worth of long shelf life supplies.
Oh, and if everyone thinks it's bad now, wait until the order goes out for every vulnerable sick person and everyone over 70 to go into quarantine at once. It'll be like those scenes when Black Friday first arrived in Britain, or possibly even the 2011 London riots. Fisticuffs are inevitable; outright civil disorder and looting is a distinct possibility.
Yes, I think there will be some disorder, which is one reason I am fairly keen to leave London.
BTW I also have a fairly small flat, but I've just accepted that half the living room is going to be full of tinned sardines and M&S penne for a while. Either we will shift it to a bigger place outside London, or we will eat it here. The problem will solve itself in time.
Accepting all this is part of coping, I reckon.
6 months worth of food can fit into just over a cubic meter if you buy smart and pack well. That's with a shopping list including olives and capers not just boring shit.
A cubic metre is a surprisingly large area.
It is the same as a thousand litres or enough space for the beer from two thousand 500ml bottles.
The equivalent of about five pints a day for a year.
Volume, not area!
Fun fact - a cubic metre of water weighs near enough a (metric) tonne.
I was going to comment on this, but I was too late...
This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
Does it...Did you look at those signatures. When they say 200 academics, there are an absolute load of PhD students in unrelated subjects, no offence to them, but they know square root of f##k all about this (and I have a PhD).
I'm actually quite annoyed the BBC didn't make this clear. I got the impression it was going to be 200+ doctors or professors of medicine.
This is really irresponsible of the BBC. Again these aren't normal times.
I am quite happy for the WHO to chime in, but to have 50+ PhDs in maths and physics be used for political points scoring (and have the nation even further doubting the strategy).
In fact looking through, the vast vast majority are PhD or Post Doc in unrelated fields.
Edit - They have included MSc students !!!
This is bloody worse than the fake news Newsnight scoreboard.
I've seen how these things are done. It's basically just a round Robin email. Do you want to sign a letter to the government? People who reply get their name added to the list. I remember the last one regarding Brexit.
This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
No it doesn't. None of them are experts in the relevant field. This is like when that doctor with a vendetta against rugby got a whole load of gender studies doctorates to sign her letter.
Nah the Govt policy is shite. Absolute shite. Everyone's talking about it.
Boris will flip flop - has to.
And your epidemiology credentials are? Of all countries to be with Germany, Iceland, and the UK isn't a bad trio when it come to taking a fact based approach.
Three months ago Mysticrose was predicting the election result on the basis of a tweet of a Brixton polling station.
France has reported a total of 4,499 confirmed coronavirus cases – up from 3,661 on Friday, according to official figures.
Time to ban travel from France.
As long as they don't ban travel TO France.
I have a skiing holiday booked for 11 April with my grandchildren in the French Alps with ClubMed.
No, you really don't.....
I do. My Italian skiing holiday was cut short last week.
Nice one Barnesian - which resort? I`m thinking about a late ski trip with my daughter. I`ve been looking at Norway - never been there.
La Plagne 2100. Last week it was Corvara.
I love La Plagne. Been before? I like the big mountain feel you get there. And the views across to Courcheval. Good move staying at 2100 for a late break.
This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
Does it...Did you look at those signatures. When they say 200 academics, there are an absolute load of PhD students in unrelated subjects, no offence to them, but they know square root of f##k all about this (and I have a PhD).
I'm actually quite annoyed the BBC didn't make this clear. I got the impression it was going to be 200+ doctors or professors of medicine.
This is really irresponsible of the BBC. Again these aren't normal times.
I am quite happy for the WHO to chime in, but to have 50+ PhDs in maths and physics be used for political points scoring (and have the nation even further doubting the strategy).
In fact looking through, the vast vast majority are PhD or Post Doc in unrelated fields.
Edit - They have included MSc students !!!
This is bloody worse than the fake news Newsnight scoreboard.
I've seen how these things are done. It's basically just a round Robin email. Do you want to sign a letter to the government? People who reply get their name added to the list. I remember the last one regarding Brexit.
It is clearly that. The vast majority of are from Queen Mary University and massively weighted towards particular departments such as Maths.
Stop the strategy everybody, a lab tech has signed a letter saying they have this all wrong....
Normally I don't really give a shit they have done this and sent it to the Guardian, but this isn't normal times.
This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
Does it...Did you look at those signatures. When they say 200 academics, there are an absolute load of PhD students in unrelated subjects, no offence to them, but they know square root of f##k all about this (and I have a PhD).
Seem to be a lot of mathematicians in there and an astronomer thrown in for good measure. There are also several whose subjects aren't specified (fine art, modern languages, archeology?)
No wonder the government's strategy is so crap, they don't have astronomers on the advisory panel.
While I am not arguing there won't be disruption, but a different era? Was the Spanish flu as transformative?
Difficult to tell because it came at the end of WW1. So certainly there was a massive cultural change over that period but it is difficult to know whether it could be ascribed to the flu or the war.
Mind you, we lost 80,000 in Britain to Hing Kong flu over a few months in 1968 and I don't think there was any real social change ascribed to that outbreak.
This is less about the sheer death toll, though, and much more about the economic dislocation and radical changes to our way of living. Experiences of work (work-from-home really is likely to get a boost, the daily commute and new train lines might start looking quite out-of-date), our technical optimism about the future dented, the psychological effect for millions of people of long isolation, greater awareness of hygiene, social fragility and our own mortality, the way it will change relationships especially with those who enter the "cocoon" stage ... and I'm not even sure I've hit all the important ones!
This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
Does it...Did you look at those signatures. When they say 200 academics, there are an absolute load of PhD students in unrelated subjects, no offence to them, but they know square root of f##k all about this (and I have a PhD).
Seem to be a lot of mathematicians in there and an astronomer thrown in for good measure. There are also several whose subjects aren't specified (fine art, modern languages, archeology?)
No wonder the government's strategy is so crap, they don't have astronomers on the advisory panel.
This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
Does it...Did you look at those signatures. When they say 200 academics, there are an absolute load of PhD students in unrelated subjects, no offence to them, but they know square root of f##k all about this (and I have a PhD).
Seem to be a lot of mathematicians in there and an astronomer thrown in for good measure. There are also several whose subjects aren't specified (fine art, modern languages, archeology?)
No wonder the government's strategy is so crap, they don't have astronomers on the advisory panel.
France has reported a total of 4,499 confirmed coronavirus cases – up from 3,661 on Friday, according to official figures.
Time to ban travel from France.
As long as they don't ban travel TO France.
I have a skiing holiday booked for 11 April with my grandchildren in the French Alps with ClubMed.
No, you really don't.....
I do. My Italian skiing holiday was cut short last week.
Nice one Barnesian - which resort? I`m thinking about a late ski trip with my daughter. I`ve been looking at Norway - never been there.
La Plagne 2100. Last week it was Corvara.
I love La Plagne. Been before? I like the big mountain feel you get there. And the views across to Courcheval. Good move staying at 2100 for a late break.
I hope age isn't the only determinant. Some 70 year olds are in better health than 55 year olds.
I wouldn`t take much notice of this link. The article says "could" not "will". And "instructed by the government" not "made illegal to leave your home".
My dad would be furious if they legally enforced this. He`d rather risk catching the virus.
If this story is true it moves things on quite a bit.
People over 70 in strict isolation at home - that's a joke!!
Why? They are the most at risk group.
It would be better to take health into account as well as just age, but I can understand why that's not feasible because there isn't time to assess people.
This kind-of blows apart the UK Government strategy
Does it...Did you look at those signatures. When they say 200 academics, there are an absolute load of PhD students in unrelated subjects, no offence to them, but they know square root of f##k all about this (and I have a PhD).
Seem to be a lot of mathematicians in there and an astronomer thrown in for good measure. There are also several whose subjects aren't specified (fine art, modern languages, archeology?)
No wonder the government's strategy is so crap, they don't have astronomers on the advisory panel.
I hope age isn't the only determinant. Some 70 year olds are in better health than 55 year olds.
I wouldn`t take much notice of this link. The article says "could" not "will". And "instructed by the government" not "made illegal to leave your home".
My dad would be furious if they legally enforced this. He`d rather risk catching the virus.
I suspect they aren't going to have police roaming the streets with orders to shoot any old biddies seen trying to get their pension. I think it's more likely it's more budging from the behavioural group. If you get them all to go out less frequently, and many to stay inside almost permanently, the transmission can be significantly reduced.
It does seem like either this was the plan all along or they have taken on board Hunt's sensible suggestions like the care home ring fencing and running schools with skeleton staff to ensure front line workers can still go and do their jobs.
While I am not arguing there won't be disruption, but a different era? Was the Spanish flu as transformative?
Difficult to tell because it came at the end of WW1. So certainly there was a massive cultural change over that period but it is difficult to know whether it could be ascribed to the flu or the war.
Mind you, we lost 80,000 in Britain to Hing Kong flu over a few months in 1968 and I don't think there was any real social change ascribed to that outbreak.
This is less about the sheer death toll, though, and much more about the economic dislocation and radical changes to our way of living. Experiences of work (work-from-home really is likely to get a boost, the daily commute and new train lines might start looking quite out-of-date), our technical optimism about the future dented, the psychological effect for millions of people of long isolation, greater awareness of hygiene, social fragility and our own mortality, the way it will change relationships especially with those who enter the "cocoon" stage ... and I'm not even sure I've hit all the important ones!
The deepest, longest recession any of us have ever experienced.
Funny how quickly us Westerners have come to see loo roll as something necessary and universal when so few of us were using it, what, 100 years ago?
I certainly wasn't using it 100 years ago.
Ha! Wonder about my grandparents/great-grandparents. I remember the look on my mum's face as she reminisced about when her parents built an inside toilet so she didn't have to go to the outdoor privy, and a proper bath so she no longer had to spend Friday evenings as "last in" to the dirty water in the metal tub in the back yard ... that and running hot water.... sheer joy that such progress could come to pass!
A generation or two before, did they find toilet roll as just a curious novelty and not noticeably more comfortable than the previous setup? Or a blessing and convenience? (Whoever used to wash the rags presumably probably did.)
France has reported a total of 4,499 confirmed coronavirus cases – up from 3,661 on Friday, according to official figures.
Time to ban travel from France.
As long as they don't ban travel TO France.
I have a skiing holiday booked for 11 April with my grandchildren in the French Alps with ClubMed.
No, you really don't.....
I do. My Italian skiing holiday was cut short last week.
Nice one Barnesian - which resort? I`m thinking about a late ski trip with my daughter. I`ve been looking at Norway - never been there.
La Plagne 2100. Last week it was Corvara.
I love La Plagne. Been before? I like the big mountain feel you get there. And the views across to Courcheval. Good move staying at 2100 for a late break.
I've been seven times. There's a glacier as well.
The glacier is awesome. Great wide run down from the top. Some good off piste in La Plagne too. I`ve had a couple of good breaks there, staying in Champagny en Vanoise. The run down to Champagny late in the season would be slushy though. Stay up high.
If you have a hire car it`s an easy 20 min drive to Courcheval for added variety.
I hope age isn't the only determinant. Some 70 year olds are in better health than 55 year olds.
I wouldn`t take much notice of this link. The article says "could" not "will". And "instructed by the government" not "made illegal to leave your home".
My dad would be furious if they legally enforced this. He`d rather risk catching the virus.
Question is, what are the sanctions on those who say "sod off?"
This is Britain. There would be serious tutting. That should send them zimmer-framing it back home to their Reader's Digest Tricky Sudoku Vol 87.....
Comments
I've just been out tonight and had dinner - evidence of healthy trade where we were, and at all the other establishments located along the walk back home. When this thing comes to the crunch and people may have to exist under Italian-style restrictions then so be it, but right now it's essential that the economy operates in as near normal a fashion as possible, so that more businesses survive this crisis, fewer people find themselves on the dole and less long-term damage is done.
Remember, Governments have always had to balance the cost of protecting life against the cost of maintaining wider society, and will always have to do so. Increased impoverishment also has its consequences in terms of poor health and premature death. The life of the small business owner who throws herself in front of a train having been bankrupted and seen her life's work come to nothing is just as valuable as that of a Covid victim - as is that of a hospital patient who perishes for want of a drug or piece of medical equipment that the taxpayer can no longer afford to purchase because people are too poor.
Economically damaging measures such as mass school closures will need to be taken as this crisis unfolds, but they should only be taken when it is essential to do so and not because somebody writing in a newspaper claims that it is.
When we worked out how much volume all the food was going to take up we had to redo the sums 3 times before going "Yeah, it really is that little space".
We aren't playing silly political games like the usual crap when a load of charities write to the Guardian saying the government are a load of meanies and we find out that it was a Labour political who phoned up all their mates.
I'd ski'd beautifully all week (not fallen once)...my last day, I was leaving the cable car and fell really innocuously adjusting my goggles.. 7 years ago....
They are going to drive us to some draconian press restrictions during this crisis.
We spent some time picking the most qualified person to be CMO and instead of picking a random astronomer we picked Chris Whitty CB FRCP FFPH FMedSci, formerly Professor of Public and International Health at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and instrumental to the international work to address the Ebola outbreak. Mad, I know.
Pre-Corona v. Post-Corona will be different eras.
Funny how quickly us Westerners have come to see loo roll as something necessary and universal when so few of us were using it, what, 100 years ago?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/51692901
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
A few years later I damaged the same knee in a cycling accident, though this time more seriously - ripping the cruciate ligament.
Ski-ing is great fun. I loved it when I went regularly. I wish I had started when younger, though.
https://twitter.com/communistbops/status/1238929625734053888?s=21
Mind you, we lost 80,000 in Britain to Hing Kong flu over a few months in 1968 and I don't think there was any real social change ascribed to that outbreak.
I'm really pleased my fathers care home has told my brother he can't visit.
It's tough but we have to protect the older generation as best we can
They have equal weight.
Well, actually, with the jam, the WI letter is heavier.
Stop the strategy everybody, a lab tech has signed a letter saying they have this all wrong....
Normally I don't really give a shit they have done this and sent it to the Guardian, but this isn't normal times.
This hermit-thinker thing is working for you!
My dad would be furious if they legally enforced this. He`d rather risk catching the virus.
Other measures already being planned include:
"emergency manufacture by several companies of respirators that would be necessary to keep alive those who become acutely ill;"
I would sort of hope they were doing that already....
A generation or two before, did they find toilet roll as just a curious novelty and not noticeably more comfortable than the previous setup? Or a blessing and convenience? (Whoever used to wash the rags presumably probably did.)
If you have a hire car it`s an easy 20 min drive to Courcheval for added variety.
This is Britain. There would be serious tutting. That should send them zimmer-framing it back home to their Reader's Digest Tricky Sudoku Vol 87.....