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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swing for the moment. How the country shifted at GE2019
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swing for the moment. How the country shifted at GE2019
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42% increase day on day increase.
We are definitely now tracking Italy, Germany etc, in terms of raw numbers. I don't see how we are 3 weeks behind Italy.
If this is the case, then isn't it inevitable that the percentage of positive tests will soar?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/who-urges-countries-to-track-and-trace-every-covid-19-case
That all been said....
"It’s going to be very quickly done...they have made tremendous progress," said the president.
Google's PR team has since clarified that its sister company, Verily Life Sciences, is working on such a tool, but that it is only at the "early stages of development". The tech firm added that while it intended to start testing it in the San Francisco Bay Area soon - possibly at the start of next week - it would take time to expand its provision across the country
Like inviting 15-20 of the top CEOs to stand within a couple of metres of you and shaking each of their hands?
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1238837700943323136?s=20
I may be misunderstanding the intentions of the Government, but if I'm reading them correctly I think they'd rather the schools continued to operate for the duration, even if there aren't enough teachers left and we end up with huge classes being taught in sports and assembly halls. There has to be enormous concern over sending kids home in terms of the impact on the economy, pressure on public services, and the consequences of desperate working families dumping their children on Granny and Grandad when they're meant to be self-isolating.
I think these world leaders are so used to mixing rubbing shoulders and glad handing they are amongst those right at the top of the list needing to change their behaviour. Rutte the Dutch PM was another example earlier in the week too.
Parliament here with everyone packed like sardines is hardly a great example.
Could the conservatives have swung too far? Done a New Labour. Alienated their fiscally responsible heartlands for the promise of the supposed ideal: Further right for social issues and left for a looser hold on public spending.
So the Lib Dems take up the slack in the south as centre ground voters buoyed by the presence of DPP Keir, vote for a close European partnership and less anti migrant rhetoric. And Labour re-invigorated reabsorb the red wall now Corbyn is no longer the figure head.
To me this would be a thing of dreams. A southern, conservative minded voting block that is now alienated by their once fiscally restrained party swinging in the populist wind.
Just what you need when you are locked in for 2 months....LET IT GOOOOOOOOOO, LET IT GOOOOOOOOOO...
Testing people who are home, ill, would mean one of
1) asking them to travel to a testing location.
2) sending people to their home to test them.
3) asking people to draw blood by themselves and post it?
Aside from the odd outlier (notably the pale of Cambridge,) the new Toryland bears more than a passing resemblance to the Danelaw.
My sneaking suspicion is perhaps there will be still community sampling going on, but they don't want to do what America has done and promised everybody who wants a test gets one and then completely overload the system and not be able to test front line staff.
To treat everyone the same would be like a flat rate tax system. I like it!
I know a few of those.
In this situation it is probably a concern of doing a quick and dirty job that will initially break down and a PR disaster. It is a difficult call, but I would be tempted to go for the move fast and break stuff, go hackathon style and get something up asap and then firefight it.
Yes the hot spots drive the numbers London is over 150 I think but not sure if that was based on the new figures.
Attention fake news
It is alleged and quickly spread that the Federal Ministry of Health / the Federal Government would soon announce massive further restrictions on public life. That's not true!
Please help stop it from spreading.
Germany is with us.
We were testing far more than basically the rest of Europe, but now it is dedicated to front line staff and hospitalized.
If this is the correct decision, we know the WHO don't like.
My principal work colleague has lupus, and we're expecting and preparing for her to be sent home and to be gone for months.
Surely “closing schools” doesn’t have to be universal? Could exclude key exam groups?
Vaguely on-topic, in this most febrile of times, it's incredibly dangerous to make bold predictions for four weeks down the road let alone four years.
I'm struck by the LD recovery in central southern England but as Antifrank says, it's from the very low base of 2015 and 2017. That said, I look at Winchester as a probable LD gain next time .
The main relevance of 2019 for the party was to re-position itself as the principal beneficiaries of any collapse in Conservative vote share in 2024 in a small number of seats.
That is a huge call, its massively risky and could be wrong, but it isn't because they were asleep at the wheel. They have been developing this plan from the start of January and I am sure we aren't going to be fully informed of every single move that goes on (like war time).
Impact of that, today, hence a bigger jump in the numbers than would otherwise have been the case.
Company told local news that NHS aren't interested.
**************************
(Edit - I’ve broken the quotes).
They might end up giving out a-levels based on coursework, teacher views, and mock exams I guess. If the exam boards take the decision it makes life easier for Unis, and there are precedents for awarding in that way for sick kids etc.
They are being rolled out to pharmacy staff next week, to provide them with instant testing abilities and then potentially available to the wider public.
So, these tests are still useful because they potentially cut the number of people you infect from four to one or two.
It was presumed that perhaps the Trump announcement caused issues, but they then they briefed the Times and Newsnight, its coming Thursday, and they didn't do it (despite Sturgeon being in the same meeting and coming out and saying it).
It could be a legal issue, could be to do with compensation for all the companies they would put out of business, could be down to trying to enforce this.
Something in the background happened.
Seeing the report on CH4, it is just a prick test and then put into some solution. No real fancy equipment required and didn't look like you had to be a highly trained lab tech to administer it.
Some good news at last.
I can see a longer Easter, but not a lockdown through the whole summer. If it’s so serious that is required, we’re talking about a Catch-22 style situation where such measures would probably not help anyway.
Anyone got a link to the constitution of the Democratic Party?
Mocks are a very poor substitute - it’s not as though all schools even do them any more.
https://twitter.com/catherine5news/status/1238808367512129537
Never mind the fact that this all-devouring Coronavirus monster leaves little time to think about the new trading relationship. There might be no entity with which to negotiate such a thing anyway.
Alastair’s excellent analysis demonstrates once again that if anything the extent of Labour’s disaster has been understated.
If it’s significantly lower than the percentage they are assuming, then the NHS is likely to be overwhelmed several times in the pursuit of herd immunity.
I understand the government‘s belief it needs to opt for this gamble; the alternate strategy is also in its own way something of a gamble, too. What I don’t understand is why they don’t think it needs to be a more informed gamble.
https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1238252717514072066
https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1238262405756583937
If it bounds in the 0.4-0.6% box in organised developed countries, with a MoE, then true cases as of Friday night were probably between 3-5k UK wide.
My guesstimate of 10-15k is probably a tad high. But there will be many more with *cold* type symptoms (that hasn't gone away either) who worry they have the more serious version in reality.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/13/long-term-approach-will-defeat-terrible-disease/
To be fair you’re also right on mocks - mine were dreadful. I didn’t revise because I knew they didn’t matter. Going out was far more important to me. I interpreted a C with no revision as a message I was ok. I was not universally correct...