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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swing for the moment. How the country shifted at GE2019

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    I wonder if Brian, the Msc maths student, or the History of Art Post-Doc will give their approval to locking away 70 year olds. It is clear we can't proceed unless they sign this off.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    Probably won’t find out for sure, but I’m almost certain my sister has it.

    Hopefully she only gets mild symptoms.
    Yeah just a cough etc, a colleague has been confirmed as having it. Just got to keep my parents from going anywhere near her.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    With so many flights being cancelled - are Extinction Rebellion behind the virus?

    Climate change and the virus are both symptoms of the same thing, too many people. One provides negative feedback more promptly than the other.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    This is going to change everything, isn’t it?

    Yes. Seismic shift.

    Pre-Corona v. Post-Corona will be different eras.
    While I am not arguing there won't be disruption, but a different era? Was the Spanish flu as transformative?
    Yes. Globalisation is done.
    Globalisation has come full circle.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,373

    Andy_JS said:

    They may have to make exceptions to the 70 rule if they want doctors to come out of retirement to help out.

    In the context of keeping older people away from nasty bugs, recalling them into frontline healthcare settings is a policy that doesn't really make a lot of sense, unless I'm missing something?

    All I can think at the moment is: some retirees are younger; some work might be found that doesn't involve patient contact e.g. manning a telemedicine line?
    I believe the general plan was always to stick the oldie doctors away from the frontline keeping other things running, while everybody else firefights. I think the medical students are the ones they want to throw in there onto the front line.
    Thing is, there are going to be (undiagnosed) people with the virus all through the healthcare system aren't there? Not obvious to me why working anywhere in a healthcare setting (even if you steer clear of intensive care etc) would be safer than a crowded restaurant or similar. Quite the reverse, presumably, although admittedly there would also be more precautions being taken e.g. PPE.
    I agree it is risky.

    It isn't 100% certain they will recall the oldies. They might just stick with throwing in the medical students.
    A non-trivial proportion of the NHS is quite separate from the actual hospitals. Office buildings full of people doing work which keeps the whole thing going.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767

    Was there any change to the UC 5 week payment delay for new claimants mentioned in the budget?

    Quite soon a lot of of companies are going to start laying people off I suspect.

    No. The minister on R4 said there is an advanced payments scheme in place which is "working very well".
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Probably won’t find out for sure, but I’m almost certain my sister has it.

    Hopefully she only gets mild symptoms.
    Yeah just a cough etc, a colleague has been confirmed as having it. Just got to keep my parents from going anywhere near her.
    Good luck, and don't take any chances with your parents.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    How many MPs are 70+?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    How many MPs are 70+?

    A Mr J Corbyn of Islington...how unfortunate he will locked away for 4 months.
  • What is it with no wanting to test?

    Public Health England has ruled out testing frontline NHS staff for coronavirus unless they are admitted to hospital suffering suspected pneumonia or acute respiratory illness.

    Nurses, doctors, paramedics and other frontline staff have been told by NHS officials to self-isolate if they develop any coronavirus symptoms such as a cough or a fever.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8112917/NHS-says-NOT-test-frontline-medics-coronavirus.html

    How many frontline personnel does the NHS have in active duty?
    Number of tests has recently been ramped up to 3k. Is that enough for NHS personnel alone, many will have to tested multiple times?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491

    My folks are both over 70 and taking this entirely unseriously.

    They basically think it's lefties/the younger generation being snowflakes and reacting to it is a bit wet.

    I've tried to tell them in no uncertain terms it's the real deal but they aren't changing their plans, other than stopping going to the gym.

    Start scaring them. Seriously.
    I'm working on them.

    I'd send @eadric round to lose his shit on their doorstep, but my Dad would probably just send him away with a flee in his ear.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    geoffw said:

    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    This is going to change everything, isn’t it?

    Yes. Seismic shift.

    Pre-Corona v. Post-Corona will be different eras.
    While I am not arguing there won't be disruption, but a different era? Was the Spanish flu as transformative?
    Yes. Globalisation is done.
    Globalisation has come full circle.
    Bat soup has a lot to answer for. (No offence intended).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    What is it with no wanting to test?

    Public Health England has ruled out testing frontline NHS staff for coronavirus unless they are admitted to hospital suffering suspected pneumonia or acute respiratory illness.

    Nurses, doctors, paramedics and other frontline staff have been told by NHS officials to self-isolate if they develop any coronavirus symptoms such as a cough or a fever.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8112917/NHS-says-NOT-test-frontline-medics-coronavirus.html

    How many frontline personnel does the NHS have in active duty?
    Number of tests has recently been ramped up to 3k. Is that enough for NHS personnel alone, many will have to tested multiple times?
    Wasn't it 5000 tests today?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    OllyT said:

    Barnesian said:

    algarkirk said:

    If this story is true it moves things on quite a bit.

    People over 70 in strict isolation at home - that's a joke!!

    If the policy in the UK is to allow the virus to spread in order to get herd immunity then surely it makes sense to isolate those most at risk of dying.

    The way things are going by April 11 the only you will be getting to France to go skiing is swimming the Channel and walking the rest of the way. With everything countries have on their plates right now granddads travelling to France to go skiing in the thick of it does sound a tad selfish to me.
    No one is going anywhere in the next four months other than their corner shop and local pharmacy.

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    Barnesian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I hope age isn't the only determinant. Some 70 year olds are in better health than 55 year olds.
    I'm a 77 year old skier. No way will I stay in solitary confinement for four months! Now what could I do to deserve that? Bog roll mugger?
    That's the spirit! We'll tunnel our way out.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,709
    Andy_JS said:

    geoffw said:

    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    This is going to change everything, isn’t it?

    Yes. Seismic shift.

    Pre-Corona v. Post-Corona will be different eras.
    While I am not arguing there won't be disruption, but a different era? Was the Spanish flu as transformative?
    Yes. Globalisation is done.
    Globalisation has come full circle.
    Bat soup has a lot to answer for. (No offence intended).
    Chaos theory has a new wing-flapping poster child. “A bat flaps its wings in Wuhan...”
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    RobD said:

    My folks are both over 70 and taking this entirely unseriously.

    They basically think it's lefties/the younger generation being snowflakes and reacting to it is a bit wet.

    I've tried to tell them in no uncertain terms it's the real deal but they aren't changing their plans, other than stopping going to the gym.

    Even only cutting out the gym is probably a huge reduction in risk for them.
    Yes, it's definitely something.

    From my wife's WhatsApp their reaction is pretty typical of their generation.

    None of my friends parents are worrying either.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    A new delivery of bog roll has been made available on a new thread...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    "Darkest day yet"

    They really need to get some perspective. It's going to get A LOT worse.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    OllyT said:


    If the policy in the UK is to allow the virus to spread in order to get herd immunity then surely it makes sense to isolate those most at risk of dying.

    Are we clear thst creating herd immunity is actually the policy? It seems like one of the boffins mentioned it but the people involved in making the model seem saying this is just an inevitable outcome, rather than the goal. Then a bunch of people who *support* the government seem to be jumping on it because it gives them a way to claim the delay and confusion was part of a cunning and brilliant expert plan, rather than the British getting knocked on their arses like everybody else without recent SARS experience.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    OllyT said:

    Barnesian said:

    algarkirk said:

    If this story is true it moves things on quite a bit.

    People over 70 in strict isolation at home - that's a joke!!

    If the policy in the UK is to allow the virus to spread in order to get herd immunity then surely it makes sense to isolate those most at risk of dying.

    The way things are going by April 11 the only you will be getting to France to go skiing is swimming the Channel and walking the rest of the way. With everything countries have on their plates right now granddads travelling to France to go skiing in the thick of it does sound a tad selfish to me.
    People over 70 are going to die anyway. They've had the bulk of their lives. No-one wants to end up dribbling their last years in a care home in Weston-Super-Mare. When you're old you should take risks and live for the moment. What the hell.

    I think this "protect the old by locking them up" is plain bonkers.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,709
    “Safeguards introduced after Dr Harald Shipman will also be suspended”
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    What is it with no wanting to test?

    Public Health England has ruled out testing frontline NHS staff for coronavirus unless they are admitted to hospital suffering suspected pneumonia or acute respiratory illness.

    Nurses, doctors, paramedics and other frontline staff have been told by NHS officials to self-isolate if they develop any coronavirus symptoms such as a cough or a fever.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8112917/NHS-says-NOT-test-frontline-medics-coronavirus.html

    How many frontline personnel does the NHS have in active duty?
    Number of tests has recently been ramped up to 3k. Is that enough for NHS personnel alone, many will have to tested multiple times?
    Wasn't it 5000 tests today?
    It feels to me like the working assumption is starting to be “it’s late March, if you have a cough and a fever you have it”.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    “Safeguards introduced after Dr Harald Shipman will also be suspended”
    The stuff about needing post-mortems? Grim, but makes sense.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604

    My folks are both over 70 and taking this entirely unseriously.

    They basically think it's lefties/the younger generation being snowflakes and reacting to it is a bit wet.

    I've tried to tell them in no uncertain terms it's the real deal but they aren't changing their plans, other than stopping going to the gym.

    Start scaring them. Seriously.
    I'm working on them.

    I'd send @eadric round to lose his shit on their doorstep, but my Dad would probably just send him away with a flee in his ear.
    Good for your dad. I assume your parents are adults and can think for themselves.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604

    RobD said:

    My folks are both over 70 and taking this entirely unseriously.

    They basically think it's lefties/the younger generation being snowflakes and reacting to it is a bit wet.

    I've tried to tell them in no uncertain terms it's the real deal but they aren't changing their plans, other than stopping going to the gym.

    Even only cutting out the gym is probably a huge reduction in risk for them.
    Yes, it's definitely something.

    From my wife's WhatsApp their reaction is pretty typical of their generation.

    None of my friends parents are worrying either.
    It's their children that are the problem.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    OllyT said:


    If the policy in the UK is to allow the virus to spread in order to get herd immunity then surely it makes sense to isolate those most at risk of dying.

    Are we clear thst creating herd immunity is actually the policy? It seems like one of the boffins mentioned it but the people involved in making the model seem saying this is just an inevitable outcome, rather than the goal. Then a bunch of people who *support* the government seem to be jumping on it because it gives them a way to claim the delay and confusion was part of a cunning and brilliant expert plan, rather than the British getting knocked on their arses like everybody else without recent SARS experience.
    Edmund do you think there is a Brit, or a Japanese national living in Britain, sat on a Japanese forum ripping into the Japanese response?

    There is something quite distasteful with the tone of that post IMO.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Barnesian said:

    OllyT said:

    Barnesian said:

    algarkirk said:

    If this story is true it moves things on quite a bit.

    People over 70 in strict isolation at home - that's a joke!!

    If the policy in the UK is to allow the virus to spread in order to get herd immunity then surely it makes sense to isolate those most at risk of dying.

    The way things are going by April 11 the only you will be getting to France to go skiing is swimming the Channel and walking the rest of the way. With everything countries have on their plates right now granddads travelling to France to go skiing in the thick of it does sound a tad selfish to me.
    People over 70 are going to die anyway. They've had the bulk of their lives. No-one wants to end up dribbling their last years in a care home in Weston-Super-Mare. When you're old you should take risks and live for the moment. What the hell.

    I think this "protect the old by locking them up" is plain bonkers.
    So go out and enjoy life but don't expect to get significant treatment if you fall ill.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Barnesian said:

    My folks are both over 70 and taking this entirely unseriously.

    They basically think it's lefties/the younger generation being snowflakes and reacting to it is a bit wet.

    I've tried to tell them in no uncertain terms it's the real deal but they aren't changing their plans, other than stopping going to the gym.

    Start scaring them. Seriously.
    I'm working on them.

    I'd send @eadric round to lose his shit on their doorstep, but my Dad would probably just send him away with a flee in his ear.
    Good for your dad. I assume your parents are adults and can think for themselves.
    Yes. My job is to make the risks clear to them.

    I've been equally clear I'm not visiting them again for the foreseeable unless I'm 100% convinced it's safe, and we're totally clean.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    RobD said:

    "Darkest day yet"

    They really need to get some perspective. It's going to get A LOT worse.
    Not really wishing to defend the MoS scarmongering but doesn't the word "yet" address your point?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767

    Barnesian said:

    My folks are both over 70 and taking this entirely unseriously.

    They basically think it's lefties/the younger generation being snowflakes and reacting to it is a bit wet.

    I've tried to tell them in no uncertain terms it's the real deal but they aren't changing their plans, other than stopping going to the gym.

    Start scaring them. Seriously.
    I'm working on them.

    I'd send @eadric round to lose his shit on their doorstep, but my Dad would probably just send him away with a flee in his ear.
    Good for your dad. I assume your parents are adults and can think for themselves.
    Yes. My job is to make the risks clear to them.

    I've been equally clear I'm not visiting them again for the foreseeable unless I'm 100% convinced it's safe, and we're totally clean.
    Having similar conversations with family.

    Are PBers like me and @eadric and the Chief Scientist the only people in UK taking this seriously?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    RobD said:

    "Darkest day yet"

    They really need to get some perspective. It's going to get A LOT worse.
    Quite possibly until Monday. And pretty much every day thereafter for about 4 months.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767

    Barnesian said:

    OllyT said:

    Barnesian said:

    algarkirk said:

    If this story is true it moves things on quite a bit.

    People over 70 in strict isolation at home - that's a joke!!

    If the policy in the UK is to allow the virus to spread in order to get herd immunity then surely it makes sense to isolate those most at risk of dying.

    The way things are going by April 11 the only you will be getting to France to go skiing is swimming the Channel and walking the rest of the way. With everything countries have on their plates right now granddads travelling to France to go skiing in the thick of it does sound a tad selfish to me.
    People over 70 are going to die anyway. They've had the bulk of their lives. No-one wants to end up dribbling their last years in a care home in Weston-Super-Mare. When you're old you should take risks and live for the moment. What the hell.

    I think this "protect the old by locking them up" is plain bonkers.
    So go out and enjoy life but don't expect to get significant treatment if you fall ill.
    We could do deal. They sign a document to say 'forget me in the corridor of A&E', don't give me a precious ventilator etc etc.

  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    Barnesian said:

    OllyT said:

    Barnesian said:

    algarkirk said:

    If this story is true it moves things on quite a bit.

    People over 70 in strict isolation at home - that's a joke!!

    If the policy in the UK is to allow the virus to spread in order to get herd immunity then surely it makes sense to isolate those most at risk of dying.

    The way things are going by April 11 the only you will be getting to France to go skiing is swimming the Channel and walking the rest of the way. With everything countries have on their plates right now granddads travelling to France to go skiing in the thick of it does sound a tad selfish to me.
    People over 70 are going to die anyway. They've had the bulk of their lives. No-one wants to end up dribbling their last years in a care home in Weston-Super-Mare. When you're old you should take risks and live for the moment. What the hell.

    I think this "protect the old by locking them up" is plain bonkers.
    So go out and enjoy life but don't expect to get significant treatment if you fall ill.
    We could do deal. They sign a document to say 'forget me in the corridor of A&E', don't give me a precious ventilator etc etc.

    They don't need to, the decision will be made for them.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    OllyT said:


    If the policy in the UK is to allow the virus to spread in order to get herd immunity then surely it makes sense to isolate those most at risk of dying.

    Are we clear thst creating herd immunity is actually the policy? It seems like one of the boffins mentioned it but the people involved in making the model seem saying this is just an inevitable outcome, rather than the goal. Then a bunch of people who *support* the government seem to be jumping on it because it gives them a way to claim the delay and confusion was part of a cunning and brilliant expert plan, rather than the British getting knocked on their arses like everybody else without recent SARS experience.
    Edmund do you think there is a Brit, or a Japanese national living in Britain, sat on a Japanese forum ripping into the Japanese response?

    There is something quite distasteful with the tone of that post IMO.
    A bloke on 5 live now saying same about herd

    Experiment UK Govt letter
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Here’s a mad idea.

    Pay airlines to use grounded planes and empty airports as Covid 19 triage/isolation centres. Aircrews are good at looking after people, planes have beds. AI reports can move large numbers of people around securely. Lots of catering capacity.
This discussion has been closed.