politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders trailing by 22% in Michigan – a state where he beat Hi

FF43 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1237071985928220674

So what they are saying they are not going to test for Coronavirus either now or later but the assumption now is that people with flu like symptoms now don't have the virus but later they will due to the spread. This means no actual control until the disease is rampant and doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

No that's not what they're saying. They're doing over a thousand tests per day.

It seems countries that are successful at reducing the death rate have three lines of defence. The first line is lots of testing to ensure cases are picked up early. Those then go into quarantine to ensure they don't pass the virus on. The second line of defence is effective separation of those with the virus from those without. The third line is the availability of high quality intensive care for those that are seriously ill.

If our government says we assume those with mild symptoms don't have the Coronavirus we effectively bypass the first line of defence. It also makes the second line much less effective because mild cases are probably just as infectious as serious ones, but these won't be in quarantine. So we are relying on the third line of defence in a system that is likely to be overwhelmed, cf Italy and Hubei.

It may just be that we don't have the resources to test at the required level. Which is disappointing, especially as Korea is testing at ten times the rate we are. We are where we are, I guess. So we fall back on the second line of defence, but we are not really doing that either at the moment. The only form of containment we have in place right now is the government urging people to wash their hands.

None of this fills me with confidence.

That's not what they're suggesting!

If the all-Italy shut down does go ahead, are we going to the return of border controls at Menton and across the alpine range?

Luckyguy1983 said:

Had my Mum and Dad's much beloved family pooch put down today. Me and Mum stayed with her, Dad couldn't do it. Not been the best day. Apologies if I've been tetchier than usual.

Lucky, feeling for you. Our 17-year old house cat had a stroke on Friday and is now blind (bilateral retina detachment as a result of ultra high blood pressure). Nursing her through, but thought she was a goner for a while there.

Jonathan said:

isam said:

Jonathan said:

isam said:

JohnLilburne said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/RochdaleHerald/status/1237098813120274435

I was pleased to find my local branch was still stocked with coffee filters, would have hated to have been unable to make coffee on my return from Cyprus next week.

My local Aldi had about 800 packets of toilet roll for sale today

Are you counting toilet toll in Aldi?

I took a pic!

Life takes us in weird, unexpected places. You’re now photographing bog roll in Aldi.

It’s a nicely composed shot to be fair to him.

Jonathan said:

isam said:

Jonathan said:

isam said:

JohnLilburne said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/RochdaleHerald/status/1237098813120274435

I was pleased to find my local branch was still stocked with coffee filters, would have hated to have been unable to make coffee on my return from Cyprus next week.

My local Aldi had about 800 packets of toilet roll for sale today

Are you counting toilet toll in Aldi?

I took a pic!

Life takes us in weird, unexpected places. You’re now photographing bog roll in Aldi.

Strictly speaking I did that about 8 hours ago! But yes, I did it. Probably wouldn't have if it wasn't all over social media that there was a shortage... but then again maybe I would

Anabobazina said:

If the all-Italy shut down does go ahead, are we going to the return of border controls at Menton and across the alpine range?

Cue multiple orgasms for Brexiters if so.

Anabobazina said:

If the all-Italy shut down does go ahead, are we going to the return of border controls at Menton and across the alpine range?

In lockdown Milan, Malpensa airport, they are just right now boarding the Emirates flight to Dubai. How can you be in lockdown quarantine, self isolation and all the rest of it when you are busy flying virus to all parts of the globe every few minutes?

https://twitter.com/marklowen/status/1237116015194058753

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Volunteers paid £3,500 to be infected with coronavirus in UK lab

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/volunteers-paid-3500-infected-coronavirus-17888089#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare

Not enough.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Had my Mum and Dad's much beloved family pooch put down today. Me and Mum stayed with her, Dad couldn't do it. Not been the best day. Apologies if I've been tetchier than usual.

Commiserations. It is the loss of a member of the family.

What was that CV-Map where you could view the time series for teh UK?

Jonathan said:

isam said:

Jonathan said:

isam said:

JohnLilburne said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/RochdaleHerald/status/1237098813120274435

I was pleased to find my local branch was still stocked with coffee filters, would have hated to have been unable to make coffee on my return from Cyprus next week.

My local Aldi had about 800 packets of toilet roll for sale today

Are you counting toilet toll in Aldi?

I took a pic!

Life takes us in weird, unexpected places. You’re now photographing bog roll in Aldi.

Can we change the subject please?

This conversation is absolute toilet.

TimT said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Had my Mum and Dad's much beloved family pooch put down today. Me and Mum stayed with her, Dad couldn't do it. Not been the best day. Apologies if I've been tetchier than usual.

Lucky, feeling for you. Our 17-year old house cat had a stroke on Friday and is now blind (bilateral retina detachment as a result of ultra high blood pressure). Nursing her through, but thought she was a goner for a while there.

Bless you, that sounds traumatic! Glad you have her for a little longer.

Chameleon said:

Extremely worrying twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/status/1236680331706675200
https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/status/1236680333887668225

Quite inspiing, I thought. I know it's an intolerant autocracy. But in warlike crises you need a decisive lead, just as we had in WW2.

algarkirk said:

Anabobazina said:

If the all-Italy shut down does go ahead, are we going to the return of border controls at Menton and across the alpine range?

In lockdown Milan, Malpensa airport, they are just right now boarding the Emirates flight to Dubai. How can you be in lockdown quarantine, self isolation and all the rest of it when you are busy flying virus to all parts of the globe every few minutes?

Agreed. I’m talking about Italy’s neighbours. The Italians themselves have proved utter amateurs at organising a lockdown in a virus colony.

eadric said:

GideonWise said:

eadric said:

A story from the front lines of South London.

My wife is a primary school teaching assistant in Tooting. A good friend of a friend of hers has confirmed coronavirus, with pneumonia. He's in his mid 30s.

My wife is understandably concerned, not least that she might have it (asymptomatically) and then give it to the kids, and thus spread it all around Tooting (some might say that's a good thing, but hey).

However, being a good citizen she went into work - but she asked the head, an Aussie lady, if she could wear gloves and a mask, to protect the kids.

The headmistress went loopy and said You're just fear-mongering, so my wife patiently explained exactly why she was a risk (just one person removed from a confirmed case), and then the headteacher said, in these exact words "that's not how viruses work, you can't catch it indirectly, the government said so".

This is a head teacher, who doesn't even know the basics of science, and how disease spreads.

We're fecked.

Similar story with my wife who is a Primary teacher.

Headteacher clueless, teaching assistants in her class are sniping away in the background when my wife is getting the kids to wash their hands. It's just like the flu, over the top etc.

Washing hands is over the top. In a school.

This disease is a Darwinian test of human intelligence. The thick are going to die, basically. Trouble is, in their stupidity, they endanger the rest of us, too.

Can we assume that you are now self-isolating and no longer planning to move out of London ?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts

I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

eadric said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Had my Mum and Dad's much beloved family pooch put down today. Me and Mum stayed with her, Dad couldn't do it. Not been the best day. Apologies if I've been tetchier than usual.

Likewise. My sympathies.

I am having to take an emotionally wrenching decision, right now, and I have probably been snappier than normal. Apologies.

Albanian wine now that the Macedonian stuff has run out?

Luckyguy1983 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts

I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

I am not sure.
I think it’s a bit tricksy.

As our friend from Tokyo has said;

Wash your hands.
Encourage home working, if you can.
Avoid large groups, if you can.
Get ready for school closures when the virus is significant enough.
Do not panic, this is nasty but beatable.

The government should text the above or a version to every mobile phone in the country.

Meanwhile, ban all flights to and from Italy and Iran.
Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.

algarkirk said:

Anabobazina said:

If the all-Italy shut down does go ahead, are we going to the return of border controls at Menton and across the alpine range?

In lockdown Milan, Malpensa airport, they are just right now boarding the Emirates flight to Dubai. How can you be in lockdown quarantine, self isolation and all the rest of it when you are busy flying virus to all parts of the globe every few minutes?

I doubt there’s many on that plane. UAE are now testing everyone at the airport on arrival and you’ll be quarantined until the negative result comes though.

https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/coronavirus-uae-steps-up-virus-checks-at-airports-and-warns-against-travel-abroad-1.988399

As a minor aside, I wonder if all this exceptional crisis and drama, on the last day before MIchigan, could give Sanders' agenda a lifeline. It's unlikely, but who knows.

eadric said:

Dow Jones now down nearly 8% in a day.

This bear market has no floor, it could easily go below 20,000, over the next weeks.

Suits me. I have £8k cash ready to buy cheap stock.

Gardenwalker said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts

I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

I am not sure.
I think it’s a bit tricksy.

As our friend from Tokyo has said;

Wash your hands.
Encourage home working, if you can.
Avoid large groups, if you can.
Get ready for school closures when the virus is significant enough.
Do not panic, this is nasty but beatable.

The government should text the above or a version to every mobile phone in the country.

Meanwhile, ban all flights to and from Italy and Iran.
Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.

I would love to think we could help both those countries. Let's hope that Roche drug is all it's cracked up to be, and really does blunt the worst impacts of the virus. That'll be a significant boost to the medical community fighting this.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"Trump to get coronavirus" sounds like PaddyPower's next market, to be honest (probably something pathetic like 2/1)

Avoid novelty bets unless the bookie is offering both sides of it!

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1237071985928220674

So what they are saying they are not going to test for Coronavirus either now or later but the assumption now is that people with flu like symptoms now don't have the virus but later they will due to the spread. This means no actual control until the disease is rampant and doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

No that's not what they're saying. They're doing over a thousand tests per day.

It seems countries that are successful at reducing the death rate have three lines of defence. The first line is lots of testing to ensure cases are picked up early. Those then go into quarantine to ensure they don't pass the virus on. The second line of defence is effective separation of those with the virus from those without. The third line is the availability of high quality intensive care for those that are seriously ill.

If our government says we assume those with mild symptoms don't have the Coronavirus we effectively bypass the first line of defence. It also makes the second line much less effective because mild cases are probably just as infectious as serious ones, but these won't be in quarantine. So we are relying on the third line of defence in a system that is likely to be overwhelmed, cf Italy and Hubei.

It may just be that we don't have the resources to test at the required level. Which is disappointing, especially as Korea is testing at ten times the rate we are. We are where we are, I guess. So we fall back on the second line of defence, but we are not really doing that either at the moment. The only form of containment we have in place right now is the government urging people to wash their hands.

None of this fills me with confidence.

That's not what they're suggesting!

They are implying exactly that. I checked the Public Health England advice. The only recommendation is that those with flu like symptoms should not take part in sporting events. There was no advice on getting the symptoms checked out or staying away from other people outside of sporting events.

DavidL said:

RobD said:

rural_voter said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

Andrew said:

Jeez, the Italians have gone from 888 to 9172 cases in 10 days.

So doubling about every 3 days. Eeesh.

Our numbers have gone up by 1.5 in last two days.

Recent doubling times =
Italy ~3 days
UK ~4 days
Denmark similar
(the UK and Denmark are more culturally similar than either is to Italy.)

All are adjustable downwards by ordering the population to adopt modified habits, like not touching surfaces and then one's mouth (or nose?)

UK govt: just do it. Before 1979, you considered it your duty to keep the population safe and secure. Some MPs, even Tories do still think this is your role.


More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -

'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'

Or they've run out of testing kits. I don't believe for a moment that new infections have almost entirely stopped in China.

The rate of infection per million in SK and Italy is almost 3x the rate in China. SK in particular has done pretty much everything that China did. That is a remarkable difference. The numbers in Wuhan are right up with SK and Italy. The numbers in the other Chinese provinces are ...not. Is it possible that incredibly strong action limited the spread of this virus in this way? Maybe. Likely? No.

Entirely possible, though.
Their lockdown of Shanghai, when there was a handful of cases there, would be like us (though we’d be able to do it far less effectively) locking down London now.
If you stop social mixing almost completely, you stop the virus. At a cost.

Charles said:

eadric said:

DavidL said:

I mentioned before that the death rate in "closed" cases is surprisingly consistent at 6% and has been for 2 weeks now as the numbers become more and more statistically significant but I have just come across the Italian figure:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

37% of closed cases have ended in death. That's getting close to Black death levels. Weirdly, their percentage of active cases in a serious condition is much, much lower, below average in fact, at 10%

"getting close to Black Death levels" is not a phrase I ever expected to see on PB. And I for one find it a tad unsettling, but maybe that's just me.

It’s also inaccurate

And most unhelpful.

My next trip to Pakistan, to work on a national infection control approach for CCHF (Crimea Congo Hemorrhaging Fever), has been delayed indefinitely. CCHF has a mortality rate of around 40%. Granted, it has no pandemic potential, but each 'season' it causes grief to the families of those who get it. What is the opportunity cost - not just economic, but also public health - of all the things not being done because of COVID? That is one of the considerations for why we should not be shutting everything down.

The needs of the current crisis need to be balanced against the opportunity costs created by all of the containment and countermeasures.

Gardenwalker said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts

I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.

Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

JonathanD said:

Gardenwalker said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts

I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.

Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.

Pro_Rata said:

edmundintokyo said:

rural_voter said:

More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -

'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'

Yes, people make a big deal of the authoritarian nature of the Chinese response but by and large people *want* to reduce their risk. This is an unusual case where the irrational fear response (scared of an unusual but new risk with, so far, a low base rate) serves the common good (a strong reaction everywhere reduces spread in the crucial few cases where it counts).

What you need is for the government to take a lead. Japan has shut down nearly all events with no coercion, and got millions of people working from home with just a recommendation. People want to do this, but they don't want to look like they're panicking or not taking their jobs seriously.

The countries like Britain that refuse to do the things that are working in east Asia will just end up doing far more disruptive things when the problem is worse.

I just got the slightly sinking feeling we might be having a little bit of reverse psychology played on us.

CMO: you know, we might have tell all mild fevers to self isolate in 10-14 days time.
People: Wtaf, do it NOW!! (All exit to self isolate)

I think to some extent Johnson and other western politicians want to be lead by public opinion rather than lead it. So they will wait until the infection or death rate makes a policy unavoidable before they introduce it. As I said earlier, I get the impression Johnson is fine with intervention that people don't notice. He doesn't want intervention that requires people to change their behaviours.

Gardenwalker said:

Anabobazina said:

eadric said:

GideonWise said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/marklowen/status/1237116015194058753

So tragedy is repeated as farce as we now get to see the Italians race across the porous EU borders to escape the quarantine.

How do you quarantine an entire country which has open borders????!!!

The ramifications of this are mind-boggling. I wouldn't like to be a customs officer at the Brenner Pass, right this minute.

San Marino hastily throwing up barbed wire.

San Marino actually has the worst infection rate per capita in the world; 51 cases and rising steeply.

Oh! Apologies.

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

RobD said:

rural_voter said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

Andrew said:

Jeez, the Italians have gone from 888 to 9172 cases in 10 days.

So doubling about every 3 days. Eeesh.

Our numbers have gone up by 1.5 in last two days.

Recent doubling times =
Italy ~3 days
UK ~4 days
Denmark similar
(the UK and Denmark are more culturally similar than either is to Italy.)

All are adjustable downwards by ordering the population to adopt modified habits, like not touching surfaces and then one's mouth (or nose?)

UK govt: just do it. Before 1979, you considered it your duty to keep the population safe and secure. Some MPs, even Tories do still think this is your role.


More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -

'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'

Or they've run out of testing kits. I don't believe for a moment that new infections have almost entirely stopped in China.

The rate of infection per million in SK and Italy is almost 3x the rate in China. SK in particular has done pretty much everything that China did. That is a remarkable difference. The numbers in Wuhan are right up with SK and Italy. The numbers in the other Chinese provinces are ...not. Is it possible that incredibly strong action limited the spread of this virus in this way? Maybe. Likely? No.

Entirely possible, though.
Their lockdown of Shanghai, when there was a handful of cases there, would be like us (though we’d be able to do it far less effectively) locking down London now.
If you stop social mixing almost completely, you stop the virus. At a cost.

They shut down the Shanghai region. That’s a population equivalent to the UK and an area equal to the SE, East Anglia and London. The love being shown to totalitarian dictatorships here is unsurprising but pretty dispiriting. Fascinating though in the hypocrisy that’s on display.

MarqueeMark said:

This time next week, France closing its borders?

History has shown France is rubbish at closing their borders, heck they'll have surrendered and will be collaborating with the coronavirus this time next week.

...

I am unconcerned about the risk to my health. I am concerned about the risk to our financial health as Covid-19 rapidly snowballs into large parts of the developed world locking themselves down.

A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.

If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.

Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.

Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

This time next week, France closing its borders?

History has shown France is rubbish at closing their borders, heck they'll have surrendered and will be collaborating with the coronavirus this time next week.

We better go sink its navy to stop the virus getting here.....

Casino_Royale said:

Just ordered my new commuting outfit.

I assume the stick is for beating away infected peasants who try and sit in the seat next to you?

JonathanD said:

GideonWise said:

JonathanD said:

Gardenwalker said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts

I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.

Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.

ICU capacity will of course be a disaster but given the supply constraints of trained staff is one I can understand. You can't have lots of idle staff waiting around for some potential pandemic. However testing and diagnostics should be low cost, highly automated and be capable of ramping up rapidly without requiring large numbers of trained staff. That's where the contingency planning should have gone into, not these too clever by half, reverse psychology government pronouncements.

Whatever happens the actual tests take 24 hours to complete in a lab according to the CDC. So the turnaround time of 72 hours between swabbing and getting notified of the results is probably not that far off the standard. That is the same lead time as is being quoted in Germany, South Korea and the US.

RobD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Just ordered my new commuting outfit.

I assume the stick is for beating away infected peasants who try and sit in the seat next to you?

Yes. I had some scallywag cough over me today.

I gave him a tut and stare so hard I basically publicly suckerpunched him.

edmundintokyo said:

eadric said:

This disease is a Darwinian test of human intelligence. The thick are going to die, basically. Trouble is, in their stupidity, they endanger the rest of us, too.

The other Darwinian angle to this is that it shows there's some survival logic to people's fear responses that still applies in the modern world. Be scared of new things, be scared of things you can't see, be scared threats even if they have a low base rate. These are all individually irrational, but they can stop a disease killing the tribe.

For it to be a Darwinian test of our intelligence, there'd have to be natural selection (i.e. death/survival) based on behaviours indicated by intelligent analysis. But this virus is not killing on that basis - it's killing based on age (thereby having no evolutionary impact as 80-year olds have already procreated if there were going to, and would not be procreating even if they survive) and on existing serious medical condition - not on failure to adopt intelligence-derived behaviours.

RochdalePioneers said:

I am unconcerned about the risk to my health. I am concerned about the risk to our financial health as Covid-19 rapidly snowballs into large parts of the developed world locking themselves down.

A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.

If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.

Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.

Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10

Nonsense. The supermarkets were talking to government today and this is not Boris, this is his medical experts who with respect will know more than yourself

Indeed, outside of the idiotic Trump most countries are acting on medical advise

Richard_Tyndall said:

JonathanD said:

GideonWise said:

JonathanD said:

Gardenwalker said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts

I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.

Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.

ICU capacity will of course be a disaster but given the supply constraints of trained staff is one I can understand. You can't have lots of idle staff waiting around for some potential pandemic. However testing and diagnostics should be low cost, highly automated and be capable of ramping up rapidly without requiring large numbers of trained staff. That's where the contingency planning should have gone into, not these too clever by half, reverse psychology government pronouncements.

Whatever happens the actual tests take 24 hours to complete in a lab according to the CDC. So the turnaround time of 72 hours between swabbing and getting notified of the results is probably not that far off the standard. That is the same lead time as is being quoted in Germany, South Korea and the US.

24 hours is fine, 96 hours is not. This should have been a predictable problem and should have been planned for. Especially given 'contain' was the first line of defence.

"Concerns had been expressed that the time taken to get test results back from swabbed patients had slipped in recent weeks from one or two days – PHE’s target – to as much as four days."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/nhs-testing-people-coronavirus-ease-strain-on-phe

GideonWise said:

eadric said:

A story from the front lines of South London.

My wife is a primary school teaching assistant in Tooting. A good friend of a friend of hers has confirmed coronavirus, with pneumonia. He's in his mid 30s.

My wife is understandably concerned, not least that she might have it (asymptomatically) and then give it to the kids, and thus spread it all around Tooting (some might say that's a good thing, but hey).

However, being a good citizen she went into work - but she asked the head, an Aussie lady, if she could wear gloves and a mask, to protect the kids.

The headmistress went loopy and said You're just fear-mongering, so my wife patiently explained exactly why she was a risk (just one person removed from a confirmed case), and then the headteacher said, in these exact words "that's not how viruses work, you can't catch it indirectly, the government said so".

This is a head teacher, who doesn't even know the basics of science, and how disease spreads.

We're fecked.

Similar story with my wife who is a Primary teacher.

Headteacher clueless, teaching assistants in her class are sniping away in the background when my wife is getting the kids to wash their hands. It's just like the flu, over the top etc.

Washing hands is over the top. In a school.

In contrast, my wife’s Primary ran out of soap today...

Nigelb said:

FF43 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1237071985928220674

So what they are saying they are not going to test for Coronavirus either now or later but the assumption now is that people with flu like symptoms now don't have the virus but later they will due to the spread. This means no actual control until the disease is rampant and doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

No that's not what they're saying. They're doing over a thousand tests per day.

It seems countries that are successful at reducing the death rate have three lines of defence. The first line is lots of testing to ensure cases are picked up early. Those then go into quarantine to ensure they don't pass the virus on. The second line of defence is effective separation of those with the virus from those without. The third line is the availability of high quality intensive care for those that are seriously ill.

If our government says we assume those with mild symptoms don't have the Coronavirus we effectively bypass the first line of defence. It also makes the second line much less effective because mild cases are probably just as infectious as serious ones, but these won't be in quarantine. So we are relying on the third line of defence in a system that is likely to be overwhelmed, cf Italy and Hubei.

It may just be that we don't have the resources to test at the required level. Which is disappointing, especially as Korea is testing at ten times the rate we are. We are where we are, I guess. So we fall back on the second line of defence, but we are not really doing that either at the moment. The only form of containment we have in place right now is the government urging people to wash their hands.

None of this fills me with confidence.

Agreed.

Reported on the radio that they were considering assuming those with mild symptoms might be infected... in a week or two’s time.
That seems more than a little stupid. The earlier you try to stop the spread, the more effective intervention is likely to be.

It looks like they are trying to time the peak of the virus for late April/May, which means not stopping a low level of spreading now. The advantage is that it makes a clash of resource demand with flu next winter less likely, as well as allowing the economy to recover in the second half of the year.

It is risky and a horrible decision to have to make, but trying to fully contain the virus now is also risky and might end up with worse outcomes.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I am unconcerned about the risk to my health. I am concerned about the risk to our financial health as Covid-19 rapidly snowballs into large parts of the developed world locking themselves down.

A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.

If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.

Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.

Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10

Nonsense. The supermarkets were talking to government today and this is not Boris, this is his medical experts who with respect will know more than yourself

Indeed, outside of the idiotic Trump most countries are acting on medical advise

FWIW, I do not think that solely medical advice should be driving responses.

We need to look at the total impact of proposed actions - not just the positive impacts on the crisis, but all the negative impacts of the countermeasures. Medical experts are not experts in those other aspects. We need them, but we need others in the mix too to decide the totality of governments' responses.

JonathanD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

JonathanD said:

GideonWise said:

JonathanD said:

Gardenwalker said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts

I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.

Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.

ICU capacity will of course be a disaster but given the supply constraints of trained staff is one I can understand. You can't have lots of idle staff waiting around for some potential pandemic. However testing and diagnostics should be low cost, highly automated and be capable of ramping up rapidly without requiring large numbers of trained staff. That's where the contingency planning should have gone into, not these too clever by half, reverse psychology government pronouncements.

Whatever happens the actual tests take 24 hours to complete in a lab according to the CDC. So the turnaround time of 72 hours between swabbing and getting notified of the results is probably not that far off the standard. That is the same lead time as is being quoted in Germany, South Korea and the US.

24 hours is fine, 96 hours is not. This should have been a predictable problem and should have been planned for. Especially given 'contain' was the first line of defence.

"Concerns had been expressed that the time taken to get test results back from swabbed patients had slipped in recent weeks from one or two days – PHE’s target – to as much as four days."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/nhs-testing-people-coronavirus-ease-strain-on-phe

24 hours is just the time to get the actual test done. You have to get the swabs to the testing centre first and then get the results checked and back afterwards. Yes if it slips to 4 days that is bad but you are never going to get it much better than 2 days given the logistics and the actual testing time involved.

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1237120808616628226

Interesting one - phone companies in India are playing an automated public health announcement at the start of all calls:

https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/08/telecom-operators-in-india-warn-people-of-coronavirus-outbreak-share-tips/

TimT said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I am unconcerned about the risk to my health. I am concerned about the risk to our financial health as Covid-19 rapidly snowballs into large parts of the developed world locking themselves down.

A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.

If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.

Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.

Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10

Nonsense. The supermarkets were talking to government today and this is not Boris, this is his medical experts who with respect will know more than yourself

Indeed, outside of the idiotic Trump most countries are acting on medical advise

FWIW, I do not think that solely medical advice should be driving responses.

We need to look at the total impact of proposed actions - not just the positive impacts on the crisis, but all the negative impacts of the countermeasures. Medical experts are not experts in those other aspects. We need them, but we need others in the mix too to decide the totality of governments' responses.

Fair comment but the wider position will be advised by experts on civil contingencies