What fools like Stewart who want to ignore the CMO or CSO advice and shut down schools etc ignore is the Italians did that and it backfired terribly. Why would we ignore our own scientists and follow the failed policies of the Italians?
Think about it. Schools are a good setting for children. Controlled, we know where they are, under the supervision of trained state employees who have the authority to report symptoms. Typically have a nurse on site.
Or we can copy the Italians and send all children out dispersed like some mingling diaspora to be supervised by who knows whom and often at risk grandparents etc.
What an idiotic self defeating policy unless the school knows it has an outbreak which it is legally bound to report.
Some of the Italian measures seem not to have been very rigorously enforced, though. It doesn't seem clear whether some of these are failed measures or half-enacted measures.
Leaking plans for a quarantine to ensure tens of thousands avoided it wasn't a particularly good moment, was it?
And still allowing trains and planes to operate seems pretty stupid too.
5th death in UK too - local hospital to my sister in law.
Jeez, the Italians have gone from 888 to 9172 cases in 10 days.
So doubling about every 3 days. Eeesh.
Our numbers have gone up by 1.5 in last two days.
Recent doubling times = Italy ~3 days UK ~4 days Denmark similar (the UK and Denmark are more culturally similar than either is to Italy.)
All are adjustable downwards by ordering the population to adopt modified habits, like not touching surfaces and then one's mouth (or nose?)
UK govt: just do it. Before 1979, you considered it your duty to keep the population safe and secure. Some MPs, even Tories do still think this is your role.
More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -
'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'
Or they've run out of testing kits. I don't believe for a moment that new infections have almost entirely stopped in China.
No way China would run out of kits. They ramped up total production of masks something crazy in the space of week or two, so absolutely no way they wouldn't be able to do the same with testing kits.
Now are the Chinese massaging the figures, to be able to pronounce the great Chinese state has won the battle, I think that is definitely possible. But if they still have 10,000s of new cases, we would be seeing footage again of chaos.
Am I the only one who has a whole list of things which I used to think where very important and no longer can be bothered to read about? Andrew is certainly on the list.
I am exactly the same.
I actually find some news just laughable now. Like, why should I worry about THIS or THAT, it's so utterly trivial, and boring. Remember when we were all obsessed with Harry and Meghan, or trans rights in toilets, or blah blah blah?
Pfff. It feels like a kind of decadence, now. We were all so comfortable, we just didn't realise.
Remember all that hot air wasted on how bad Brexit was going to be.
Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.
Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.
You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.
I’ve been in these meetings over the years. There is nothing any of us will think of that hasn’t been considered, thought through, and debated. There will be more than one “right answer” in these circumstances, but our answer won’t be wrong. Ask yourself how many current or former public health experts are dissenting. It isn’t many.
The picture is changing very fast. The meeting this morning did not have the information from Italy that we have now. This is hard and I am not really being critical. I expect much bigger announcements on Wednesday.
I don’t disagree with that. Feels a bit like the phoney war.
The chilling thing for me, when I thought about it, was that on these projected numbers we will all have close friends or family who get very sick or die.
Am I the only one who has a whole list of things which I used to think where very important and no longer can be bothered to read about? Andrew is certainly on the list.
I am exactly the same.
I actually find some news just laughable now. Like, why should I worry about THIS or THAT, it's so utterly trivial, and boring. Remember when we were all obsessed with Harry and Meghan, or trans rights in toilets, or blah blah blah?
Pfff. It feels like a kind of decadence, now. We were all so comfortable, we just didn't realise.
Remember all that hot air wasted on how bad Brexit was going to be.
Innocent days .....
But what about the pasty tax and George eating a posh burger...those were the scandalous days.
Fantastic news, who said a year wasn't long enough for negotiations?
Britain has learned a lot and is approaching these negotiations much smarter than they did the WA negotiations under May.
Also showing how true it was that Britain holds the cards. We're the ones who can frame what deal we want and us beating the EU to the punch like this is brilliant.
Dream Dream Dream , all I do is Dream
You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one.
Am I the only one who has a whole list of things which I used to think where very important and no longer can be bothered to read about? Andrew is certainly on the list.
I am exactly the same.
I actually find some news just laughable now. Like, why should I worry about THIS or THAT, it's so utterly trivial, and boring. Remember when we were all obsessed with Harry and Meghan, or trans rights in toilets, or blah blah blah?
Pfff. It feels like a kind of decadence, now. We were all so comfortable, we just didn't realise.
Remember all that hot air wasted on how bad Brexit was going to be.
Jeez, the Italians have gone from 888 to 9172 cases in 10 days.
So doubling about every 3 days. Eeesh.
Our numbers have gone up by 1.5 in last two days.
Recent doubling times = Italy ~3 days UK ~4 days Denmark similar (the UK and Denmark are more culturally similar than either is to Italy.)
All are adjustable downwards by ordering the population to adopt modified habits, like not touching surfaces and then one's mouth (or nose?)
UK govt: just do it. Before 1979, you considered it your duty to keep the population safe and secure. Some MPs, even Tories do still think this is your role.
More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -
'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'
Or they've run out of testing kits. I don't believe for a moment that new infections have almost entirely stopped in China.
The rate of infection per million in SK and Italy is almost 3x the rate in China. SK in particular has done pretty much everything that China did. That is a remarkable difference. The numbers in Wuhan are right up with SK and Italy. The numbers in the other Chinese provinces are ...not. Is it possible that incredibly strong action limited the spread of this virus in this way? Maybe. Likely? No.
Jeez, the Italians have gone from 888 to 9172 cases in 10 days.
So doubling about every 3 days. Eeesh.
Our numbers have gone up by 1.5 in last two days.
Recent doubling times = Italy ~3 days UK ~4 days Denmark similar (the UK and Denmark are more culturally similar than either is to Italy.)
All are adjustable downwards by ordering the population to adopt modified habits, like not touching surfaces and then one's mouth (or nose?)
UK govt: just do it. Before 1979, you considered it your duty to keep the population safe and secure. Some MPs, even Tories do still think this is your role.
More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -
'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'
Or they've run out of testing kits. I don't believe for a moment that new infections have almost entirely stopped in China.
I do. Occam's razor, there's no other evidence they've stopped and the Chinese running out of kits and being unable to produce more seems unlikely.
Is there evidence of ongoing widespread testing in China?
The Chinese have shown an authoritarian and concentrated desire to keep this stamped out so yes I think its reasonable to believe they are doing so.
Fantastic news, who said a year wasn't long enough for negotiations?
Britain has learned a lot and is approaching these negotiations much smarter than they did the WA negotiations under May.
Also showing how true it was that Britain holds the cards. We're the ones who can frame what deal we want and us beating the EU to the punch like this is brilliant.
Dream Dream Dream , all I do is Dream
You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one.
You may say I'm a screamer, but Howard Dean isn't the only one!
Jeez, the Italians have gone from 888 to 9172 cases in 10 days.
So doubling about every 3 days. Eeesh.
Our numbers have gone up by 1.5 in last two days.
Recent doubling times = Italy ~3 days UK ~4 days Denmark similar (the UK and Denmark are more culturally similar than either is to Italy.)
All are adjustable downwards by ordering the population to adopt modified habits, like not touching surfaces and then one's mouth (or nose?)
UK govt: just do it. Before 1979, you considered it your duty to keep the population safe and secure. Some MPs, even Tories do still think this is your role.
More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -
'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'
Or they've run out of testing kits. I don't believe for a moment that new infections have almost entirely stopped in China.
The rate of infection per million in SK and Italy is almost 3x the rate in China. SK in particular has done pretty much everything that China did. That is a remarkable difference. The numbers in Wuhan are right up with SK and Italy. The numbers in the other Chinese provinces are ...not. Is it possible that incredibly strong action limited the spread of this virus in this way? Maybe. Likely? No.
But we haven't seen similar scenes of overloaded hospitals etc in other regions. Remember the Chinese sent masses of doctors from everywhere else to Wuhan, so if it was kicking off elsewhere they were be short staffed and even worse position.
Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.
Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.
You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.
I’ve been in these meetings over the years. There is nothing any of us will think of that hasn’t been considered, thought through, and debated. There will be more than one “right answer” in these circumstances, but our answer won’t be wrong. Ask yourself how many current or former public health experts are dissenting. It isn’t many.
The picture is changing very fast. The meeting this morning did not have the information from Italy that we have now. This is hard and I am not really being critical. I expect much bigger announcements on Wednesday.
I don’t disagree with that. Feels a bit like the phoney war.
The chilling thing for me, when I thought about it, was that on these projected numbers we will all have close friends or family who get very sick or die.
Indeed. 100k is looking quite seriously optimistic now unless there is a real breakthrough with existing anti-virals. Some positive noises out of China on that.
Am I the only one who has a whole list of things which I used to think where very important and no longer can be bothered to read about? Andrew is certainly on the list.
I am exactly the same.
I actually find some news just laughable now. Like, why should I worry about THIS or THAT, it's so utterly trivial, and boring. Remember when we were all obsessed with Harry and Meghan, or trans rights in toilets, or blah blah blah?
Pfff. It feels like a kind of decadence, now. We were all so comfortable, we just didn't realise.
Remember all that hot air wasted on how bad Brexit was going to be.
Innocent days .....
I thought Brexit real did not start till January 2021, we are still under the EU yoke till then and have to slavishly follow the rules.
Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.
Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.
You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.
I’ve been in these meetings over the years. There is nothing any of us will think of that hasn’t been considered, thought through, and debated. There will be more than one “right answer” in these circumstances, but our answer won’t be wrong. Ask yourself how many current or former public health experts are dissenting. It isn’t many.
The picture is changing very fast. The meeting this morning did not have the information from Italy that we have now. This is hard and I am not really being critical. I expect much bigger announcements on Wednesday.
I don’t disagree with that. Feels a bit like the phoney war.
The chilling thing for me, when I thought about it, was that on these projected numbers we will all have close friends or family who get very sick or die.
I work with a Chinese lady - she has lost family from this back in China.
As was discussed - quite heatedly - on here last night. The Italians are having to choose who to treat.
Triage.
And age is a factor. The younger are more favoured.
“If a person between 80 and 95 years old has severe respiratory failure, it’s likely we will not go ahead. If they have multi-organ failure, with more than two or three vital organs, it means that their mortality rate is 100%,” he added.
Jeez, the Italians have gone from 888 to 9172 cases in 10 days.
So doubling about every 3 days. Eeesh.
Our numbers have gone up by 1.5 in last two days.
Recent doubling times = Italy ~3 days UK ~4 days Denmark similar (the UK and Denmark are more culturally similar than either is to Italy.)
All are adjustable downwards by ordering the population to adopt modified habits, like not touching surfaces and then one's mouth (or nose?)
UK govt: just do it. Before 1979, you considered it your duty to keep the population safe and secure. Some MPs, even Tories do still think this is your role.
More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -
'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'
Or they've run out of testing kits. I don't believe for a moment that new infections have almost entirely stopped in China.
I do. Occam's razor, there's no other evidence they've stopped and the Chinese running out of kits and being unable to produce more seems unlikely.
Is there evidence of ongoing widespread testing in China?
The Chinese have shown an authoritarian and concentrated desire to keep this stamped out so yes I think its reasonable to believe they are doing so.
Jeez, the Italians have gone from 888 to 9172 cases in 10 days.
So doubling about every 3 days. Eeesh.
Our numbers have gone up by 1.5 in last two days.
Recent doubling times = Italy ~3 days UK ~4 days Denmark similar (the UK and Denmark are more culturally similar than either is to Italy.)
All are adjustable downwards by ordering the population to adopt modified habits, like not touching surfaces and then one's mouth (or nose?) .'
In Denmark the citizenship ceremonies for new Danes are being cancelled as you can’t do the legally required handshake which must be [my translation] - ‘without glove, palm against palm’
Yes, we really have a law on handshaking before you can be a citizen - handshaking is v important here but suspect we’ll have to let it go for a while.
As was discussed - quite heatedly - on here last night. The Italians are having to choose who to treat.
Triage.
And age is a factor. The younger are more favoured.
“If a person between 80 and 95 years old has severe respiratory failure, it’s likely we will not go ahead. If they have multi-organ failure, with more than two or three vital organs, it means that their mortality rate is 100%,” he added.
Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.
Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.
You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.
I’ve been in these meetings over the years. There is nothing any of us will think of that hasn’t been considered, thought through, and debated. There will be more than one “right answer” in these circumstances, but our answer won’t be wrong. Ask yourself how many current or former public health experts are dissenting. It isn’t many.
The picture is changing very fast. The meeting this morning did not have the information from Italy that we have now. This is hard and I am not really being critical. I expect much bigger announcements on Wednesday.
I don’t disagree with that. Feels a bit like the phoney war.
The chilling thing for me, when I thought about it, was that on these projected numbers we will all have close friends or family who get very sick or die.
Indeed. 100k is looking quite seriously optimistic now unless there is a real breakthrough with existing anti-virals. Some positive noises out of China on that.
Where does the 100K come from given China has had it for months with a gazillion times the population and they are only just at 3000. Why should it be thousands and thousands times worse in the UK.
Jeez, the Italians have gone from 888 to 9172 cases in 10 days.
So doubling about every 3 days. Eeesh.
Our numbers have gone up by 1.5 in last two days.
Recent doubling times = Italy ~3 days UK ~4 days Denmark similar (the UK and Denmark are more culturally similar than either is to Italy.)
All are adjustable downwards by ordering the population to adopt modified habits, like not touching surfaces and then one's mouth (or nose?)
UK govt: just do it. Before 1979, you considered it your duty to keep the population safe and secure. Some MPs, even Tories do still think this is your role.
More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -
'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'
Or they've run out of testing kits. I don't believe for a moment that new infections have almost entirely stopped in China.
The rate of infection per million in SK and Italy is almost 3x the rate in China. SK in particular has done pretty much everything that China did. That is a remarkable difference. The numbers in Wuhan are right up with SK and Italy. The numbers in the other Chinese provinces are ...not. Is it possible that incredibly strong action limited the spread of this virus in this way? Maybe. Likely? No.
But we haven't seen similar scenes of overloaded hospitals etc in other regions. Remember the Chinese sent masses of doctors from everywhere else to Wuhan, so if it was kicking off elsewhere they were be short staffed and even worse position.
Exactly. Occam's Razor.
Why would they deal with Wuhan only to let it break out elsewhere and cover it up until it becomes like Northern Italy?
Seems like a lifetime since I last posted on here, Been lurking a bit recently though, lots of old names, lots of new names.
Anyway, I just want to back Stewart on the area that affects me mostly, to say that he probably does know the science and seems to be, in at least this regard, ahead of the government.
Initial studies said that children were not much affected by the virus and were not spreading it to any great degree. More recent evidence coming out of China (Shenzhen) has shown that this has changed, however, so that children are most definitely spreading it, likely often without much in the way of symptoms.
Essentially they are primed to catch it from relatives, go to school, infect others and, before anyone know it, pass it to their own family. Keeping them all at home at least stops the last of those and keeps it within initial families. I hope that findings like this are acted upon before its too late.
Am I the only one who has a whole list of things which I used to think were very important and no longer can be bothered to read about? Andrew is certainly on the list.
I am exactly the same.
I actually find some news just laughable now. Like, why should I worry about THIS or THAT, it's so utterly trivial, and boring. Remember when we were all obsessed with Harry and Meghan, or trans rights in toilets, or blah blah blah?
Pfff. It feels like a kind of decadence, now. We were all so comfortable, we just didn't realise.
Agreed. We'll come back to all that stuff in time, and perhaps appreciate the luxury of doing so.
So what they are saying they are not going to test for Coronavirus either now or later but the assumption now is that people with flu like symptoms now don't have the virus but later they will due to the spread. This means no actual control until the disease is rampant and doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
As was discussed - quite heatedly - on here last night. The Italians are having to choose who to treat.
Triage.
And age is a factor. The younger are more favoured.
“If a person between 80 and 95 years old has severe respiratory failure, it’s likely we will not go ahead. If they have multi-organ failure, with more than two or three vital organs, it means that their mortality rate is 100%,” he added.
I have no issue with the last paragraph. That is clinical sense
And where does it say the younger are more favoured.
Unless you have a link to that I think you should declare it as yet another one of your own, unqualified, opinions
"“It’s a first step, but after a few days, we have to choose. Since there is, unfortunately, a disproportion between hospital resources, resuscitation beds and critically ill patients, not everyone can be intubated,” Salaroli said. “We decide based on age and state of health,” he added."
As was discussed - quite heatedly - on here last night. The Italians are having to choose who to treat.
Triage.
And age is a factor. The younger are more favoured.
“If a person between 80 and 95 years old has severe respiratory failure, it’s likely we will not go ahead. If they have multi-organ failure, with more than two or three vital organs, it means that their mortality rate is 100%,” he added.
Am I the only one who has a whole list of things which I used to think where very important and no longer can be bothered to read about? Andrew is certainly on the list.
I am exactly the same.
I actually find some news just laughable now. Like, why should I worry about THIS or THAT, it's so utterly trivial, and boring. Remember when we were all obsessed with Harry and Meghan, or trans rights in toilets, or blah blah blah?
Pfff. It feels like a kind of decadence, now. We were all so comfortable, we just didn't realise.
Remember all that hot air wasted on how bad Brexit was going to be.
Innocent days .....
But what about the pasty tax and George eating a posh burger...those were the scandalous days.
Indeed the international diplomatic crisis caused by Ed Miliband’s close encounter with a bacon sandwich seems a world away now.
Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.
Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.
You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.
I’ve been in these meetings over the years. There is nothing any of us will think of that hasn’t been considered, thought through, and debated. There will be more than one “right answer” in these circumstances, but our answer won’t be wrong. Ask yourself how many current or former public health experts are dissenting. It isn’t many.
The picture is changing very fast. The meeting this morning did not have the information from Italy that we have now. This is hard and I am not really being critical. I expect much bigger announcements on Wednesday.
I don’t disagree with that. Feels a bit like the phoney war.
The chilling thing for me, when I thought about it, was that on these projected numbers we will all have close friends or family who get very sick or die.
Indeed. 100k is looking quite seriously optimistic now unless there is a real breakthrough with existing anti-virals. Some positive noises out of China on that.
Where does the 100K come from given China has had it for months with a gazillion times the population and they are only just at 3000. Why should it be thousands and thousands times worse in the UK.
Firstly, do we believe the Chinese numbers? Secondly, it was the governments central estimate, at least last week. My understanding is that the assumption was based on a much lower death rate of something like 0.2% with 50m catching it but 90%+ not being particularly affected.
FWIW I think 50m is way too high. And 0.2% is way too low.
Seems like a lifetime since I last posted on here, Been lurking a bit recently though, lots of old names, lots of new names.
Anyway, I just want to back Stewart on the area that affects me mostly, to say that he probably does know the science and seems to be, in at least this regard, ahead of the government.
Initial studies said that children were not much affected by the virus and were not spreading it to any great degree. More recent evidence coming out of China (Shenzhen) has shown that this has changed, however, so that children are most definitely spreading it, likely often without much in the way of symptoms.
Essentially they are primed to catch it from relatives, go to school, infect others and, before anyone know it, pass it to their own family. Keeping them all at home at least stops the last of those and keeps it within initial families. I hope that findings like this are acted upon before its too late.
Different evidence, different interpretations, different trade-offs, different decisions.
As was discussed - quite heatedly - on here last night. The Italians are having to choose who to treat.
Triage.
And age is a factor. The younger are more favoured.
“If a person between 80 and 95 years old has severe respiratory failure, it’s likely we will not go ahead. If they have multi-organ failure, with more than two or three vital organs, it means that their mortality rate is 100%,” he added.
Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.
Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.
You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.
I’ve been in these meetings over the years. There is nothing any of us will think of that hasn’t been considered, thought through, and debated. There will be more than one “right answer” in these circumstances, but our answer won’t be wrong. Ask yourself how many current or former public health experts are dissenting. It isn’t many.
The picture is changing very fast. The meeting this morning did not have the information from Italy that we have now. This is hard and I am not really being critical. I expect much bigger announcements on Wednesday.
I don’t disagree with that. Feels a bit like the phoney war.
The chilling thing for me, when I thought about it, was that on these projected numbers we will all have close friends or family who get very sick or die.
Indeed. 100k is looking quite seriously optimistic now unless there is a real breakthrough with existing anti-virals. Some positive noises out of China on that.
Where does the 100K come from given China has had it for months with a gazillion times the population and they are only just at 3000. Why should it be thousands and thousands times worse in the UK.
Because we cannot enact the same style of high-tech authoritarianism in the West.
What fools like Stewart who want to ignore the CMO or CSO advice and shut down schools etc ignore is the Italians did that and it backfired terribly. Why would we ignore our own scientists and follow the failed policies of the Italians?
Think about it. Schools are a good setting for children. Controlled, we know where they are, under the supervision of trained state employees who have the authority to report symptoms. Typically have a nurse on site.
Or we can copy the Italians and send all children out dispersed like some mingling diaspora to be supervised by who knows whom and often at risk grandparents etc.
What an idiotic self defeating policy unless the school knows it has an outbreak which it is legally bound to report.
Dr David Nabarro, a WHO special envoy on Covid 19, has today said the Government should move from the contain phase to the delay phase.
Stewart has previous experience dealing with Ebola
So what they are saying they are not going to test for Coronavirus either now or later but the assumption now is that people with flu like symptoms now don't have the virus but later they will due to the spread. This means no actual control until the disease is rampant and doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
No that's not what they're saying. They're doing over a thousand tests per day.
As was discussed - quite heatedly - on here last night. The Italians are having to choose who to treat.
Triage.
And age is a factor. The younger are more favoured.
“If a person between 80 and 95 years old has severe respiratory failure, it’s likely we will not go ahead. If they have multi-organ failure, with more than two or three vital organs, it means that their mortality rate is 100%,” he added.
I have no issue with the last paragraph. That is clinical sense
And where does it say the younger are more favoured.
Unless you have a link to that I think you should declare it as yet another one of your own, unqualified, opinions
"“It’s a first step, but after a few days, we have to choose. Since there is, unfortunately, a disproportion between hospital resources, resuscitation beds and critically ill patients, not everyone can be intubated,” Salaroli said. “We decide based on age and state of health,” he added."
And the choice could be against a very sick young person and an elderly one with better survival chances
It is not just age but state of health
And having lost my sister under a DNR the attempts to prove that the elderly are someway expendable is totally unnecessary and lacks compassion
What fools like Stewart who want to ignore the CMO or CSO advice and shut down schools etc ignore is the Italians did that and it backfired terribly. Why would we ignore our own scientists and follow the failed policies of the Italians?
Think about it. Schools are a good setting for children. Controlled, we know where they are, under the supervision of trained state employees who have the authority to report symptoms. Typically have a nurse on site.
Or we can copy the Italians and send all children out dispersed like some mingling diaspora to be supervised by who knows whom and often at risk grandparents etc.
What an idiotic self defeating policy unless the school knows it has an outbreak which it is legally bound to report.
Dr David Nabarro, a WHO special envoy on Covid 19, has today said the Government should move from the contain phase to the delay phase.
Stewart has previous experience dealing with Ebola
Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.
Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.
You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.
I’ve been in these meetings over the years. There is nothing any of us will think of that hasn’t been considered, thought through, and debated. There will be more than one “right answer” in these circumstances, but our answer won’t be wrong. Ask yourself how many current or former public health experts are dissenting. It isn’t many.
The picture is changing very fast. The meeting this morning did not have the information from Italy that we have now. This is hard and I am not really being critical. I expect much bigger announcements on Wednesday.
I don’t disagree with that. Feels a bit like the phoney war.
The chilling thing for me, when I thought about it, was that on these projected numbers we will all have close friends or family who get very sick or die.
Indeed. 100k is looking quite seriously optimistic now unless there is a real breakthrough with existing anti-virals. Some positive noises out of China on that.
Where does the 100K come from given China has had it for months with a gazillion times the population and they are only just at 3000. Why should it be thousands and thousands times worse in the UK.
Firstly, do we believe the Chinese numbers? Secondly, it was the governments central estimate, at least last week. My understanding is that the assumption was based on a much lower death rate of something like 0.2% with 50m catching it but 90%+ not being particularly affected.
FWIW I think 50m is way too high. And 0.2% is way too low.
Just seems so way off kilter with all the places that have had it so far, sounds like they have got some egg head to produce a huge formula and then used the output of that willy nilly. What we see so far just does not seem to realistically support it in any way.
Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.
Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.
You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.
I’ve been in these meetings over the years. There is nothing any of us will think of that hasn’t been considered, thought through, and debated. There will be more than one “right answer” in these circumstances, but our answer won’t be wrong. Ask yourself how many current or former public health experts are dissenting. It isn’t many.
The picture is changing very fast. The meeting this morning did not have the information from Italy that we have now. This is hard and I am not really being critical. I expect much bigger announcements on Wednesday.
I don’t disagree with that. Feels a bit like the phoney war.
The chilling thing for me, when I thought about it, was that on these projected numbers we will all have close friends or family who get very sick or die.
Indeed. 100k is looking quite seriously optimistic now unless there is a real breakthrough with existing anti-virals. Some positive noises out of China on that.
Where does the 100K come from given China has had it for months with a gazillion times the population and they are only just at 3000. Why should it be thousands and thousands times worse in the UK.
Firstly, do we believe the Chinese numbers? Secondly, it was the governments central estimate, at least last week. My understanding is that the assumption was based on a much lower death rate of something like 0.2% with 50m catching it but 90%+ not being particularly affected.
FWIW I think 50m is way too high. And 0.2% is way too low.
I agree. If this becomes a big outbreak times the latter figure by a factor of 25. Halve to fifth the former figure.
Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.
Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.
You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.
I’ve been in these meetings over the years. There is nothing any of us will think of that hasn’t been considered, thought through, and debated. There will be more than one “right answer” in these circumstances, but our answer won’t be wrong. Ask yourself how many current or former public health experts are dissenting. It isn’t many.
The picture is changing very fast. The meeting this morning did not have the information from Italy that we have now. This is hard and I am not really being critical. I expect much bigger announcements on Wednesday.
I don’t disagree with that. Feels a bit like the phoney war.
The chilling thing for me, when I thought about it, was that on these projected numbers we will all have close friends or family who get very sick or die.
Indeed. 100k is looking quite seriously optimistic now unless there is a real breakthrough with existing anti-virals. Some positive noises out of China on that.
Where does the 100K come from given China has had it for months with a gazillion times the population and they are only just at 3000. Why should it be thousands and thousands times worse in the UK.
Because we cannot enact the same style of high-tech authoritarianism in the West.
I wonder if it’s not inconceivable that Hillary overtakes Sanders in the betting later this week.
I really don't like Hillary, she irritates me in a way I cannot define.
But if were an American given the choice of Trump, Biden, Sanders - or Hillary, I'd jump at the chance of a first female president.
She is sane, boring, averagely competent, and centrist, and is not quite as likely to die as Sanders or Biden. All quite appealing right now, I'd have thought.
However Sanders could have had a unique opportunity to shift America's healthcare, with the once-in-50-years pressure from outside Congress that comes from a national crisis. All water under the bridge now I expect, as a centrist Democrat will only practise limited mitigation rather than solution of the American healthcare problem.
Seems like a lifetime since I last posted on here, Been lurking a bit recently though, lots of old names, lots of new names.
Anyway, I just want to back Stewart on the area that affects me mostly, to say that he probably does know the science and seems to be, in at least this regard, ahead of the government.
Initial studies said that children were not much affected by the virus and were not spreading it to any great degree. More recent evidence coming out of China (Shenzhen) has shown that this has changed, however, so that children are most definitely spreading it, likely often without much in the way of symptoms.
Essentially they are primed to catch it from relatives, go to school, infect others and, before anyone know it, pass it to their own family. Keeping them all at home at least stops the last of those and keeps it within initial families. I hope that findings like this are acted upon before its too late.
Welcome back Paul. A new old name here.
Yep, children appear to be the ultimate asymptomatic carrier.
What fools like Stewart who want to ignore the CMO or CSO advice and shut down schools etc ignore is the Italians did that and it backfired terribly. Why would we ignore our own scientists and follow the failed policies of the Italians?
Think about it. Schools are a good setting for children. Controlled, we know where they are, under the supervision of trained state employees who have the authority to report symptoms. Typically have a nurse on site.
Or we can copy the Italians and send all children out dispersed like some mingling diaspora to be supervised by who knows whom and often at risk grandparents etc.
What an idiotic self defeating policy unless the school knows it has an outbreak which it is legally bound to report.
Dr David Nabarro, a WHO special envoy on Covid 19, has today said the Government should move from the contain phase to the delay phase.
Stewart has previous experience dealing with Ebola
I wonder if it’s not inconceivable that Hillary overtakes Sanders in the betting later this week.
I really don't like Hillary, she irritates me in a way I cannot define.
But if were an American given the choice of Trump, Biden, Sanders - or Hillary, I'd jump at the chance of a first female president.
She is sane, boring, averagely competent, and centrist, and is not quite as likely to die as Sanders or Biden. All quite appealing right now, I'd have thought.
However Sanders could have had a unique opportunity to shift America's healthcare. All water under the bridge now I expect, as a centrist Democrat will only practise limited mitigation rather than solution of the American healthcare problem.
A public option rather than Medicare for all is probably the best solution, the former closer to German public insurance healthcare rather than UK taxpayer funded single payer NHS
Oh, and by the way, politicians, covering your statements disagreeing with the Chief Medical Officer with a political slogan doesn’t go down well. I thought Rory was more sensible than that.
I agree. If he access to some modelling or data to support his contention, then fine.
Otherwise he is a prat.
There’s not an awful lot of references to modelling or scientific data in his statement, just a statement that he thinks the government are wrong and the political decisions need to be different to what the government scientists have been saying today.
Twat.
Sometimes opposition politicians need to understand that there are times when the usual adversarial politics need to suspended. This is one of those times.
Edit: that applies to Farage too, he also seems to be trying to make political capital from a national emergency.
There is a science to the modelling and to the effectiveness of the interventions. But when you are trading off health versus social costs it is fundamentally a value judgement. One group of decision-makers might make one judgement, another could come to a different conclusion.
Of course, but so far in the U.K. the scientists and the ministers are speaking from the same page, at the same press conferences.
Media looking for a sensational story and opposition politicians determined to oppose government with no evidence, both risk undermining the strategy of the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Scientific Officer.
I have no doubt that things will escalate in the coming days, but it appears that the vast majority of UK cases so far are returners from areas of prevalent infection, rather than people who have acquired the virus locally in the U.K.
Yes you are right regarding the press pack.
But my point is that there are bits that are science which include modelling the epidemiology of the virus and the likely effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions. You might also consider the plotting of costs a science.
The ultimate decision depends on the values of the decision-makers presented with the evidence and how they choose to make a trade-off. There can also be differences in interpretation of the evidence. Scrutiny of this process is appropriate particularly if the preferences of those decision-makers does not align with wider society.
It’s of course fair to disagree with decisions made by politicians (although it seems clear that the politicians in the UK are being very much led by the scientists) - but, at a time of genuine crisis, that criticism needs to be done in much more constructive manner than has been displayed by Mr Stewart and Mr Farage today.
If we had an Ed Miliband opposition leader today, if would have made sense for the PM to involve him in the process, meetings and press conferences, presenting a united front on this issue and seeking to de-politicise it.
That’s a lot more difficult when we have Corbyn, who’s standing down, and a leadership election to replace him in the background, alongside lots of other high-profile elections in May.
Seems like a lifetime since I last posted on here, Been lurking a bit recently though, lots of old names, lots of new names.
Anyway, I just want to back Stewart on the area that affects me mostly, to say that he probably does know the science and seems to be, in at least this regard, ahead of the government.
Initial studies said that children were not much affected by the virus and were not spreading it to any great degree. More recent evidence coming out of China (Shenzhen) has shown that this has changed, however, so that children are most definitely spreading it, likely often without much in the way of symptoms.
Essentially they are primed to catch it from relatives, go to school, infect others and, before anyone know it, pass it to their own family. Keeping them all at home at least stops the last of those and keeps it within initial families. I hope that findings like this are acted upon before its too late.
Welcome back. Anyone who has kids knows what a breeding ground for disease school playgrounds are. I picked up a nasty cold/cough from my son only last month.
I wonder if it’s not inconceivable that Hillary overtakes Sanders in the betting later this week.
I really don't like Hillary, she irritates me in a way I cannot define.
But if were an American given the choice of Trump, Biden, Sanders - or Hillary, I'd jump at the chance of a first female president.
She is sane, boring, averagely competent, and centrist, and is not quite as likely to die as Sanders or Biden. All quite appealing right now, I'd have thought.
However Sanders could have had a unique opportunity to shift America's healthcare. All water under the bridge now I expect, as a centrist Democrat will only practise limited mitigation rather than solution of the American healthcare problem.
A public option rather than Medicare for all is probably the best solution, the former closer to German public insurance healthcare rather thsn UK taxpayer funder single payer NHS
I doubt that the Democrats under Hilary, Biden or Buttigieg will even pass that.
Seems like a lifetime since I last posted on here, Been lurking a bit recently though, lots of old names, lots of new names.
Anyway, I just want to back Stewart on the area that affects me mostly, to say that he probably does know the science and seems to be, in at least this regard, ahead of the government.
Initial studies said that children were not much affected by the virus and were not spreading it to any great degree. More recent evidence coming out of China (Shenzhen) has shown that this has changed, however, so that children are most definitely spreading it, likely often without much in the way of symptoms.
Essentially they are primed to catch it from relatives, go to school, infect others and, before anyone know it, pass it to their own family. Keeping them all at home at least stops the last of those and keeps it within initial families. I hope that findings like this are acted upon before its too late.
Different evidence, different interpretations, different trade-offs, different decisions.
Exactly. There is nothing that can be called ‘the science’, given that what we know is rapidly changing. Anything the government is doing is based on what they, or Whitty, has chosen to believe at this point in time.
I wonder if it’s not inconceivable that Hillary overtakes Sanders in the betting later this week.
Trump would have a field day if the Democrats are so inept the best candidate they can produce is the candidate he beat 4 years ago, Biden also has charisma which Hillary did not
Seems like a lifetime since I last posted on here, Been lurking a bit recently though, lots of old names, lots of new names.
Anyway, I just want to back Stewart on the area that affects me mostly, to say that he probably does know the science and seems to be, in at least this regard, ahead of the government.
Initial studies said that children were not much affected by the virus and were not spreading it to any great degree. More recent evidence coming out of China (Shenzhen) has shown that this has changed, however, so that children are most definitely spreading it, likely often without much in the way of symptoms.
Essentially they are primed to catch it from relatives, go to school, infect others and, before anyone know it, pass it to their own family. Keeping them all at home at least stops the last of those and keeps it within initial families. I hope that findings like this are acted upon before its too late.
Different evidence, different interpretations, different trade-offs, different decisions.
Exactly. There is nothing that can be called ‘the science’, given that what we know is rapidly changing. Anything the government is doing is based on what they, or Whitty, has chosen to believe at this point in time.
Deaths are skyrocketing. Things seem to be ramping up, we're at start of the slope.
I believe the number of new cases in France, today, was actually a little lower.
Still shooting up - but lower. Maybe the first sign of containment working?
We must hope so.
Or France tightening their testing criteria to no longer test mild cases?
Congrats! You have officially taken over my position as PB's Coronavirus Pessimist-in-Residence. Enjoy the role: it comes with much criticism, but at least you get to laugh, darkly, at the flailing Don't Panickers, as they finally succumb to reality.
There's no reason to laugh at them, even if they're wrong. And I strongly believe them to be wrong.
I wonder if it’s not inconceivable that Hillary overtakes Sanders in the betting later this week.
Trump would have a field day if the Democrats are so inept the best candidate they can produce is the candidate he beat 4 years ago, Biden also has charisma which Hillary did not
Am I the only one who has a whole list of things which I used to think where very important and no longer can be bothered to read about? Andrew is certainly on the list.
'Prince Andrew has now completely closed the door'?
At least somebody's taking self-isolation seriously...
I wonder if it’s not inconceivable that Hillary overtakes Sanders in the betting later this week.
Trump would have a field day if the Democrats are so inept the best candidate they can produce is the candidate he beat 4 years ago, Biden also has charisma which Hillary did not
Deaths are skyrocketing. Things seem to be ramping up, we're at start of the slope.
I believe the number of new cases in France, today, was actually a little lower.
Still shooting up - but lower. Maybe the first sign of containment working?
We must hope so.
The number of deaths indicates infections a week or two ago. Could be deceptive.
Similarly, for tests I would wait for Wednesdays figures. These are 48 hours to be complete, and the number of tests reduces markedly at Le Weekend as it does here.
No need for either panic or euphoria, what is needed is stoic endurance and fortitude.
I mentioned before that the death rate in "closed" cases is surprisingly consistent at 6% and has been for 2 weeks now as the numbers become more and more statistically significant but I have just come across the Italian figure:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
37% of closed cases have ended in death. That's getting close to Black death levels. Weirdly, their percentage of active cases in a serious condition is much, much lower, below average in fact, at 10%
If you look at France, which has a better health service, and if you examine THEIR closed cases, then this disease has a mortality rate of 64%, making it TWICE AS DEADLY AS THE BLACK DEATH.
So I think you should stop underplaying this disease, David. This is not "just like the Black Death", it's much worse than that.
I wonder if it’s not inconceivable that Hillary overtakes Sanders in the betting later this week.
I really don't like Hillary, she irritates me in a way I cannot define.
But if were an American given the choice of Trump, Biden, Sanders - or Hillary, I'd jump at the chance of a first female president.
She is sane, boring, averagely competent, and centrist, and is not quite as likely to die as Sanders or Biden. All quite appealing right now, I'd have thought.
However Sanders could have had a unique opportunity to shift America's healthcare. All water under the bridge now I expect, as a centrist Democrat will only practise limited mitigation rather than solution of the American healthcare problem.
A public option rather than Medicare for all is probably the best solution, the former closer to German public insurance healthcare rather thsn UK taxpayer funder single payer NHS
I doubt that the Democrats under Hilary, Biden or Buttigieg will even pass that.
Deaths are skyrocketing. Things seem to be ramping up, we're at start of the slope.
I believe the number of new cases in France, today, was actually a little lower.
Still shooting up - but lower. Maybe the first sign of containment working?
We must hope so.
Or France tightening their testing criteria to no longer test mild cases?
Congrats! You have officially taken over my position as PB's Coronavirus Pessimist-in-Residence. Enjoy the role: it comes with much criticism, but at least you get to laugh, darkly, at the flailing Don't Panickers, as they finally succumb to reality.
I have to say, even by your standards, this is quite an overreaction to France's cases not soaring, which is likely largely the case because of the weekend. Regardless, their neighbours to the south, east, and north are all increasing rapidly, so even if they have somehow contained this it won't last for long. Bar a few nations, this isn't a war that can be won on a national level.
You're emotionally swinging like a possessed pendulum.
I wonder if it’s not inconceivable that Hillary overtakes Sanders in the betting later this week.
I really don't like Hillary, she irritates me in a way I cannot define.
But if were an American given the choice of Trump, Biden, Sanders - or Hillary, I'd jump at the chance of a first female president.
She is sane, boring, averagely competent, and centrist, and is not quite as likely to die as Sanders or Biden. All quite appealing right now, I'd have thought.
However Sanders could have had a unique opportunity to shift America's healthcare. All water under the bridge now I expect, as a centrist Democrat will only practise limited mitigation rather than solution of the American healthcare problem.
A public option rather than Medicare for all is probably the best solution, the former closer to German public insurance healthcare rather thsn UK taxpayer funder single payer NHS
I doubt that the Democrats under Hilary, Biden or Buttigieg will even pass that.
Without an external movement to match the crisis like Sanders', I expect the vested interests to reassert themselves - even in this crisis. The corrupting of the american political system by special interests runs incredibly deep.
Deaths are skyrocketing. Things seem to be ramping up, we're at start of the slope.
I believe the number of new cases in France, today, was actually a little lower.
Still shooting up - but lower. Maybe the first sign of containment working?
We must hope so.
Or France tightening their testing criteria to no longer test mild cases?
Congrats! You have officially taken over my position as PB's Coronavirus Pessimist-in-Residence. Enjoy the role: it comes with much criticism, but at least you get to laugh, darkly, at the flailing Don't Panickers, as they finally succumb to reality.
Whilst I appreciate there is some humour intended in this post, what you've actually been is utterly, unconstructively ghoulish. However the Coronavirus situation turns out, nobody here will have been helped one tiny bit by your histrionic oeuvre.
Seems like a lifetime since I last posted on here, Been lurking a bit recently though, lots of old names, lots of new names.
Anyway, I just want to back Stewart on the area that affects me mostly, to say that he probably does know the science and seems to be, in at least this regard, ahead of the government.
Initial studies said that children were not much affected by the virus and were not spreading it to any great degree. More recent evidence coming out of China (Shenzhen) has shown that this has changed, however, so that children are most definitely spreading it, likely often without much in the way of symptoms.
Essentially they are primed to catch it from relatives, go to school, infect others and, before anyone know it, pass it to their own family. Keeping them all at home at least stops the last of those and keeps it within initial families. I hope that findings like this are acted upon before its too late.
Different evidence, different interpretations, different trade-offs, different decisions.
Exactly. There is nothing that can be called ‘the science’, given that what we know is rapidly changing. Anything the government is doing is based on what they, or Whitty, has chosen to believe at this point in time.
I take ACE inhibitors for hypertension (have done for maybe fifteen years), unfortunately the ACE2 receptors are the ones that appear to be the entry point for that virus. Having that condition is making me pretty nervous at the moment (my blood pressure is often controlled but rising over the last month or so).
I wonder if it’s not inconceivable that Hillary overtakes Sanders in the betting later this week.
Trump would have a field day if the Democrats are so inept the best candidate they can produce is the candidate he beat 4 years ago, Biden also has charisma which Hillary did not
Michelle Obama is also down to 60/1.
The market is simply nuts.
If you treat it as a two horse race, it’s 6% under-round If you treat it as a four horse race (despite the fact that the two First Ladies are already non-runners), it’s still 1.5% under-round.
No-one else is layable apart from the occasional 1000 that pops up.
The market still thinks there’s a reasonable chance of Convention shenanigans (remember that this market should pay out in June, not November).
That takes the resolved Case Fatality Ratio up to 71%. Fully 7 out of 10 are dying. Which makes the Black Death look like a mild sniffle.
HOWEVER, look at their critical case percentage: just 2% are in ICU.
What the F is going on? How can this virus vary so much from country to country, or is it just a matter of different health systems using different criteria?
The resolved CFR sounds like an extremely dubious statistic. Those who have a bad bout die quickly and hence resolve quickly. Most will take 14-days if not more to 'recover'. Hence the statistic is totally biased in the short-term towards fatalities.
Deaths are skyrocketing. Things seem to be ramping up, we're at start of the slope.
I believe the number of new cases in France, today, was actually a little lower.
Still shooting up - but lower. Maybe the first sign of containment working?
We must hope so.
Or France tightening their testing criteria to no longer test mild cases?
Congrats! You have officially taken over my position as PB's Coronavirus Pessimist-in-Residence. Enjoy the role: it comes with much criticism, but at least you get to laugh, darkly, at the flailing Don't Panickers, as they finally succumb to reality.
I am not a flailing dont panicker.
I accept the gravity of the issue but your constant negative posts do your cause no good and I accept the reality of the crisis but not your doom and gloom
Am I the only one who has a whole list of things which I used to think where very important and no longer can be bothered to read about? Andrew is certainly on the list.
'Prince Andrew has now completely closed the door'?
At least somebody's taking self-isolation seriously...
We need to offer Trump a ‘prisoner exchange’ between Andrew and Anne Sacoolas.
That takes the resolved Case Fatality Ratio up to 71%. Fully 7 out of 10 are dying. Which makes the Black Death look like a mild sniffle.
HOWEVER, look at their critical case percentage: just 2% are in ICU.
What the F is going on? How can this virus vary so much from country to country, or is it just a matter of different health systems using different criteria?
Deaths are skyrocketing. Things seem to be ramping up, we're at start of the slope.
I believe the number of new cases in France, today, was actually a little lower.
Still shooting up - but lower. Maybe the first sign of containment working?
We must hope so.
Or France tightening their testing criteria to no longer test mild cases?
Congrats! You have officially taken over my position as PB's Coronavirus Pessimist-in-Residence. Enjoy the role: it comes with much criticism, but at least you get to laugh, darkly, at the flailing Don't Panickers, as they finally succumb to reality.
I have to say, even by your standards, this is quite an overreaction to France's cases not soaring, which is likely largely the case because of the weekend. Regardless, their neighbours to the south, east, and north are all increasing rapidly, so even if they have somehow contained this it won't last for long. Bar a few nations, this isn't a war that can be won on a national level.
But that's actually not true. Quite a few nations have mastered this (so far). All of them in Asia.
This bitch of a bug can be beat, even on a national level. We just need to wise up. Quickly!
Boris Johnson going from saying "handshaking is fine, ho ho ho" (clearly stupid and wrong) to saying "er, handshaking is probably not wise" (obviously correct) does not entirely fill me with confidence.
"My friends, as I have discovered myself, there are never disasters, only opportunities. And, indeed, opportunities for fresh disasters!"
Deaths are skyrocketing. Things seem to be ramping up, we're at start of the slope.
I believe the number of new cases in France, today, was actually a little lower.
Still shooting up - but lower. Maybe the first sign of containment working?
We must hope so.
The number of deaths indicates infections a week or two ago. Could be deceptive.
Similarly, for tests I would wait for Wednesdays figures. These are 48 hours to be complete, and the number of tests reduces markedly at Le Weekend as it does here.
No need for either panic or euphoria, what is needed is stoic endurance and fortitude.
Well said Foxy and you are qualified unlike the doom and gloom merchants
There seems to be some scope creep (woke creep?) on the anointed days at the moment.
International Women’s Day now seems to go on for a full week (with all companies noisily proclaim their celebration of it, including mine) and Pride now doesn’t seem far off being a year round thing now with universal flags, lanyards and events.
Of course, it’s impossible to criticise without seeming like a bigot so I wonder if (like how the Iowa caucus ended up where it did, with state after state trying to outbid each other to be first in the nomination race) we’ll simply end up with it all being the new status quo.
Head of New York airports tests positive. When it starts hitting senior officials Goverment members and ministers will start treating this seriously on a personal level, as they will probably all be in meetings together.
I mentioned before that the death rate in "closed" cases is surprisingly consistent at 6% and has been for 2 weeks now as the numbers become more and more statistically significant but I have just come across the Italian figure:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
37% of closed cases have ended in death. That's getting close to Black death levels. Weirdly, their percentage of active cases in a serious condition is much, much lower, below average in fact, at 10%
If you look at France, which has a better health service, and if you examine THEIR closed cases, then this disease has a mortality rate of 64%, making it TWICE AS DEADLY AS THE BLACK DEATH.
So I think you should stop underplaying this disease, David. This is not "just like the Black Death", it's much worse than that.
Seems like a lifetime since I last posted on here, Been lurking a bit recently though, lots of old names, lots of new names.
Anyway, I just want to back Stewart on the area that affects me mostly, to say that he probably does know the science and seems to be, in at least this regard, ahead of the government.
Initial studies said that children were not much affected by the virus and were not spreading it to any great degree. More recent evidence coming out of China (Shenzhen) has shown that this has changed, however, so that children are most definitely spreading it, likely often without much in the way of symptoms.
Essentially they are primed to catch it from relatives, go to school, infect others and, before anyone know it, pass it to their own family. Keeping them all at home at least stops the last of those and keeps it within initial families. I hope that findings like this are acted upon before its too late.
Different evidence, different interpretations, different trade-offs, different decisions.
Exactly. There is nothing that can be called ‘the science’, given that what we know is rapidly changing. Anything the government is doing is based on what they, or Whitty, has chosen to believe at this point in time.
That is not correct. Yours is a fundamentally medievalist and anti-scientific outlook.
The modelling of epidemics is a mature science. It is much easier than modelling climate change, for example.
There is an abundance of data in a number of countries. The data are constraining.
So, it is not true that the government, or Whitty, have just "chosen to believe [something] at this point in time."
Head of New York airports tests positive. When it starts hitting senior officials Goverment members and ministers will start treating this seriously on a personal level, as they will probably all be in meetings together.
He works in my office building. It's being closed tomorrow for a deep clean and we've all been told to WFH tomorrow. (I'm already doing so under our "WFH if you feel concerned" as I'm in multiple higher-risk groups.
There seems to be some scope creep (woke creep?) on the anointed days at the moment.
International Women’s Day now seems to go on for a full week (with all companies noisily proclaim their celebration of it, including mine) and Pride now doesn’t seem far off being a year round thing now with universal flags, lanyards and events.
Of course, it’s impossible to criticise without seeming like a bigot so I wonder if (like how the Iowa caucus ended up where it did, with state after state trying to outbid each other to be first in the nomination race) we’ll simply end up with it all being the new status quo.
There seems to be some scope creep (woke creep?) on the anointed days at the moment.
International Women’s Day now seems to go on for a full week (with all companies noisily proclaim their celebration of it, including mine) and Pride now doesn’t seem far off being a year round thing now with universal flags, lanyards and events.
Of course, it’s impossible to criticise without seeming like a bigot so I wonder if (like how the Iowa caucus ended up where it did, with state after state trying to outbid each other to be first in the nomination race) we’ll simply end up with it all being the new status quo.
There seems to be some scope creep (woke creep?) on the anointed days at the moment.
International Women’s Day now seems to go on for a full week (with all companies noisily proclaim their celebration of it, including mine) and Pride now doesn’t seem far off being a year round thing now with universal flags, lanyards and events.
Of course, it’s impossible to criticise without seeming like a bigot so I wonder if (like how the Iowa caucus ended up where it did, with state after state trying to outbid each other to be first in the nomination race) we’ll simply end up with it all being the new status quo.
My son’s school has had its Poppy Day mural up since October.
Am I the only one who has a whole list of things which I used to think where very important and no longer can be bothered to read about? Andrew is certainly on the list.
'Prince Andrew has now completely closed the door'?
At least somebody's taking self-isolation seriously...
We need to offer Trump a ‘prisoner exchange’ between Andrew and Anne Sacoolas.
Anne Sacoolas is apparently a top espionage operative, so presumably valuable to the USA despite her serious alleged criminality.
He seems to have acted entirely in keeping with his known character, I'm not sure why they would be surprised. He's not some ruthlessly controlled man playing at being an uncontrolled man.
Deaths are skyrocketing. Things seem to be ramping up, we're at start of the slope.
I believe the number of new cases in France, today, was actually a little lower.
Still shooting up - but lower. Maybe the first sign of containment working?
We must hope so.
Or France tightening their testing criteria to no longer test mild cases?
Congrats! You have officially taken over my position as PB's Coronavirus Pessimist-in-Residence. Enjoy the role: it comes with much criticism, but at least you get to laugh, darkly, at the flailing Don't Panickers, as they finally succumb to reality.
Whilst I appreciate there is some humour intended in this post, what you've actually been is utterly, unconstructively ghoulish. However the Coronavirus situation turns out, nobody here will have been helped one tiny bit by your histrionic oeuvre.
Not strictly true. I believe I helped Ishmael to offload his shares some time before the Crash. About five weeks ago. When I told you all exactly what was going to happen, and predicted that this story would dominate the news for the next year.
You said the same pointless adolescent know-nothing shit to me then, as well, and you then went back to arguing about care home wage structure. So it's all good. Carry on.
Absolutely true - 7 February, looking at the contract notes. And I don't usually do that sort of thing, I am a buy and hold, can't time the market kinda guy, so it took a seriously well argued and cogent case to make me do it.
all my Danish colleagues are now moving past coronaviruspanik jokes to taking things more seriously - the thing that shook most people out of complacency was the handshake advice I think- a real shock to the system
Getting a bit scary financially now, I have liquidated my peer to peer lending, Zopa and Ratesetter, both are unprotected, although they do have reserve plans in place. I took a small loss, but the cash is now in a protected account. I took the view that if this gets serious then many borrowers will be unable to repay and the reserve fund arrangements will be inadequate. Who knows, but I feel a bit safer now, also stopped my SIPP drawdown, I do not need it, so I will leave it to recover for my children, no point in selling shares at such a low.
There seems to be some scope creep (woke creep?) on the anointed days at the moment.
International Women’s Day now seems to go on for a full week (with all companies noisily proclaim their celebration of it, including mine) and Pride now doesn’t seem far off being a year round thing now with universal flags, lanyards and events.
Of course, it’s impossible to criticise without seeming like a bigot so I wonder if (like how the Iowa caucus ended up where it did, with state after state trying to outbid each other to be first in the nomination race) we’ll simply end up with it all being the new status quo.
Year round equality.
The horror.
Congratulations on missing (wilfully) the point entirely, and entirely predictably.
For your comment to be true it would need to be the case that equality only happened on those two days, and didn’t happen on any other day of the year.
That is palpably not the case. Almost all companies now have very well developed diversity and equality policies, and it’s now also the law, so what these events do to “advance” either cause is marginal. Instead they are basically about people and companies grandstanding to earn a bit of kudos.
The trouble is that when you grandstand constantly it ceases to become grandstanding at all: it just becomes meaningless and background noise.
Comments
5th death in UK too - local hospital to my sister in law.
Now are the Chinese massaging the figures, to be able to pronounce the great Chinese state has won the battle, I think that is definitely possible. But if they still have 10,000s of new cases, we would be seeing footage again of chaos.
Innocent days .....
The chilling thing for me, when I thought about it, was that on these projected numbers we will all have close friends or family who get very sick or die.
And where does it say the younger are more favoured.
Unless you have a link to that I think you should declare it as yet another one of your own, unqualified, opinions
Yes, we really have a law on handshaking before you can be a citizen - handshaking is v important here but suspect we’ll have to let it go for a while.
428 / 11 Spain
Why would they deal with Wuhan only to let it break out elsewhere and cover it up until it becomes like Northern Italy?
Anyway, I just want to back Stewart on the area that affects me mostly, to say that he probably does know the science and seems to be, in at least this regard, ahead of the government.
Initial studies said that children were not much affected by the virus and were not spreading it to any great degree. More recent evidence coming out of China (Shenzhen) has shown that this has changed, however, so that children are most definitely spreading it, likely often without much in the way of symptoms.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0239_article
Essentially they are primed to catch it from relatives, go to school, infect others and, before anyone know it, pass it to their own family. Keeping them all at home at least stops the last of those and keeps it within initial families. I hope that findings like this are acted upon before its too late.
FWIW I think 50m is way too high. And 0.2% is way too low.
Stewart has previous experience dealing with Ebola
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-coronavirus-aggressive-action-stop-spreading-a4382176.html
However, containment really only started in earnest a week ago, and was stepped up again this weekend.
Therefore IF measures are successful we ought to see a levelling off toward the end of this week.
With numbers seeking to double every three days, we might expect Italy to plateau around 30,000 cases - this is best case, of course.
I pray the containment measures are successful.
Not just for Italy, but for all our sakes.
It is not just age but state of health
And having lost my sister under a DNR the attempts to prove that the elderly are someway expendable is totally unnecessary and lacks compassion
What we see so far just does not seem to realistically support it in any way.
Yep, children appear to be the ultimate asymptomatic carrier.
If we had an Ed Miliband opposition leader today, if would have made sense for the PM to involve him in the process, meetings and press conferences, presenting a united front on this issue and seeking to de-politicise it.
That’s a lot more difficult when we have Corbyn, who’s standing down, and a leadership election to replace him in the background, alongside lots of other high-profile elections in May.
Neither in Project Fear nor on the Bus.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00660-x
And I strongly believe them to be wrong.
The market is simply nuts.
At least somebody's taking self-isolation seriously...
Similarly, for tests I would wait for Wednesdays figures. These are 48 hours to be complete, and the number of tests reduces markedly at Le Weekend as it does here.
No need for either panic or euphoria, what is needed is stoic endurance and fortitude.
You're emotionally swinging like a possessed pendulum.
A young Asian lass.
Westminster was still full of groups of young foreigners. Which is....bold.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1237074354279768064?s=20
If you treat it as a four horse race (despite the fact that the two First Ladies are already non-runners), it’s still 1.5% under-round.
No-one else is layable apart from the occasional 1000 that pops up.
The market still thinks there’s a reasonable chance of Convention shenanigans (remember that this market should pay out in June, not November).
I accept the gravity of the issue but your constant negative posts do your cause no good and I accept the reality of the crisis but not your doom and gloom
Especially as you have no medical qualifications
International Women’s Day now seems to go on for a full week (with all companies noisily proclaim their celebration of it, including mine) and Pride now doesn’t seem far off being a year round thing now with universal flags, lanyards and events.
Of course, it’s impossible to criticise without seeming like a bigot so I wonder if (like how the Iowa caucus ended up where it did, with state after state trying to outbid each other to be first in the nomination race) we’ll simply end up with it all being the new status quo.
The modelling of epidemics is a mature science. It is much easier than modelling climate change, for example.
There is an abundance of data in a number of countries. The data are constraining.
So, it is not true that the government, or Whitty, have just "chosen to believe [something] at this point in time."
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1237093123878260738
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51809818
We had the golden opportunity: the fortress island the Brexiteers dreamed of and they didn't seize their moment.
The horror.
Remind me why we want to keep Andrew?
A comparable trade off?
The general public are never going to take this seriously, if the usual political backbiting continues in the background.
I took the view that if this gets serious then many borrowers will be unable to repay and the reserve fund arrangements will be inadequate.
Who knows, but I feel a bit safer now, also stopped my SIPP drawdown, I do not need it, so I will leave it to recover for my children, no point in selling shares at such a low.
Hertfordshire: 13 (+5)
Devon excl. Torbay: 12 (+2)
Brighton: 8 (+1)
Hampshire: 8 (+6!!)
K&C: 8 (+2)
Torbay: 7 (+3).
Devon is very clearly the big hotspot in the UK right now.
For your comment to be true it would need to be the case that equality only happened on those two days, and didn’t happen on any other day of the year.
That is palpably not the case. Almost all companies now have very well developed diversity and equality policies, and it’s now also the law, so what these events do to “advance” either cause is marginal. Instead they are basically about people and companies grandstanding to earn a bit of kudos.
The trouble is that when you grandstand constantly it ceases to become grandstanding at all: it just becomes meaningless and background noise.
And doesn’t change a thing.