I was pleased to find my local branch was still stocked with coffee filters, would have hated to have been unable to make coffee on my return from Cyprus next week.
My local Aldi had about 800 packets of toilet roll for sale today
Are you counting toilet toll in Aldi?
I took a pic!
Life takes us in weird, unexpected places. You’re now photographing bog roll in Aldi.
So what they are saying they are not going to test for Coronavirus either now or later but the assumption now is that people with flu like symptoms now don't have the virus but later they will due to the spread. This means no actual control until the disease is rampant and doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
No that's not what they're saying. They're doing over a thousand tests per day.
It seems countries that are successful at reducing the death rate have three lines of defence. The first line is lots of testing to ensure cases are picked up early. Those then go into quarantine to ensure they don't pass the virus on. The second line of defence is effective separation of those with the virus from those without. The third line is the availability of high quality intensive care for those that are seriously ill.
If our government says we assume those with mild symptoms don't have the Coronavirus we effectively bypass the first line of defence. It also makes the second line much less effective because mild cases are probably just as infectious as serious ones, but these won't be in quarantine. So we are relying on the third line of defence in a system that is likely to be overwhelmed, cf Italy and Hubei.
It may just be that we don't have the resources to test at the required level. Which is disappointing, especially as Korea is testing at ten times the rate we are. We are where we are, I guess. So we fall back on the second line of defence, but we are not really doing that either at the moment. The only form of containment we have in place right now is the government urging people to wash their hands.
I am tempted to say what I think, but I think some people may think of less of me.
So, I will only say Nikki Haley is 95 for GOP nominee.
If Trump succumbs (not necessarily death, but -say- getting seriously sick), then why wouldn't Pence be the nominee?
If the Republican nominee were to die before the election, the rules of the Republican Party authorize the Republican National Committee to fill the vacancy, either by (re)convening a national convention or by having RNC state representatives vote.
Sure.
But wouldn't they choose the sitting Vice President rather that someone else?
It's simply the path of least resistance.
The path of least resistance would heavily depend on what Trump says tweets in his final days.
Had my Mum and Dad's much beloved family pooch put down today. Me and Mum stayed with her, Dad couldn't do it. Not been the best day. Apologies if I've been tetchier than usual.
Lucky, feeling for you. Our 17-year old house cat had a stroke on Friday and is now blind (bilateral retina detachment as a result of ultra high blood pressure). Nursing her through, but thought she was a goner for a while there.
I was pleased to find my local branch was still stocked with coffee filters, would have hated to have been unable to make coffee on my return from Cyprus next week.
My local Aldi had about 800 packets of toilet roll for sale today
Are you counting toilet toll in Aldi?
I took a pic!
Life takes us in weird, unexpected places. You’re now photographing bog roll in Aldi.
I was pleased to find my local branch was still stocked with coffee filters, would have hated to have been unable to make coffee on my return from Cyprus next week.
My local Aldi had about 800 packets of toilet roll for sale today
Are you counting toilet toll in Aldi?
I took a pic!
Life takes us in weird, unexpected places. You’re now photographing bog roll in Aldi.
Strictly speaking I did that about 8 hours ago! But yes, I did it. Probably wouldn't have if it wasn't all over social media that there was a shortage... but then again maybe I would
Fantastic news, who said a year wasn't long enough for negotiations?
Britain has learned a lot and is approaching these negotiations much smarter than they did the WA negotiations under May.
Also showing how true it was that Britain holds the cards. We're the ones who can frame what deal we want and us beating the EU to the punch like this is brilliant.
That's a joke post, right? Negotiation isn't just giving the other side a documnet and saying 'sign there'.
A little bit late on responding but you absolutely want to control the first draft in a negotiation. “Sign here” is a bit cheeky but it’s often used as an ice breaker.
The UK is starting from a baseline that it is comfortable with. That means it is positioning to the EU as not wanting anything.
If the all-Italy shut down does go ahead, are we going to the return of border controls at Menton and across the alpine range?
In lockdown Milan, Malpensa airport, they are just right now boarding the Emirates flight to Dubai. How can you be in lockdown quarantine, self isolation and all the rest of it when you are busy flying virus to all parts of the globe every few minutes?
My wife is a primary school teaching assistant in Tooting. A good friend of a friend of hers has confirmed coronavirus, with pneumonia. He's in his mid 30s.
My wife is understandably concerned, not least that she might have it (asymptomatically) and then give it to the kids, and thus spread it all around Tooting (some might say that's a good thing, but hey).
However, being a good citizen she went into work - but she asked the head, an Aussie lady, if she could wear gloves and a mask, to protect the kids.
The headmistress went loopy and said You're just fear-mongering, so my wife patiently explained exactly why she was a risk (just one person removed from a confirmed case), and then the headteacher said, in these exact words "that's not how viruses work, you can't catch it indirectly, the government said so".
This is a head teacher, who doesn't even know the basics of science, and how disease spreads.
We're fecked.
Similar story with my wife who is a Primary teacher.
Headteacher clueless, teaching assistants in her class are sniping away in the background when my wife is getting the kids to wash their hands. It's just like the flu, over the top etc.
I'm now 60% sure that the coronavirus is actually the Mind Flayer from Stranger Things, and certain posters on here are among the first victims of its final stage mutation.
If anyone tries to persuade you that the only way to defeat the virus involves accompanying them to an abandoned warehouse in the middle of the night, don't go.
I mentioned before that the death rate in "closed" cases is surprisingly consistent at 6% and has been for 2 weeks now as the numbers become more and more statistically significant but I have just come across the Italian figure:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
37% of closed cases have ended in death. That's getting close to Black death levels. Weirdly, their percentage of active cases in a serious condition is much, much lower, below average in fact, at 10%
"getting close to Black Death levels" is not a phrase I ever expected to see on PB. And I for one find it a tad unsettling, but maybe that's just me.
Had my Mum and Dad's much beloved family pooch put down today. Me and Mum stayed with her, Dad couldn't do it. Not been the best day. Apologies if I've been tetchier than usual.
Commiserations. It is the loss of a member of the family.
Had my Mum and Dad's much beloved family pooch put down today. Me and Mum stayed with her, Dad couldn't do it. Not been the best day. Apologies if I've been tetchier than usual.
Very difficult day for you all
We have been there multiple times over the years and the sadness is very real
Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.
Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.
You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.
Maybe ponder the degree to which some of your own fragility could contribute to the very panic you worry about. I cannot believe you listened carefully enough to what the CSO and CMO actually said - particularly in response to questions.
I think that that would be giving me an importance that I simply do not have. I take the "fatigue" point. We cannot take the most extreme measures right now. But why are flights from Italy still arriving without people being quarantined? I mean, why is that an acceptable risk?
Really! That too was explained at the press conference. Did you listen to any of it?
I was pleased to find my local branch was still stocked with coffee filters, would have hated to have been unable to make coffee on my return from Cyprus next week.
My local Aldi had about 800 packets of toilet roll for sale today
Are you counting toilet toll in Aldi?
I took a pic!
Life takes us in weird, unexpected places. You’re now photographing bog roll in Aldi.
Had my Mum and Dad's much beloved family pooch put down today. Me and Mum stayed with her, Dad couldn't do it. Not been the best day. Apologies if I've been tetchier than usual.
Lucky, feeling for you. Our 17-year old house cat had a stroke on Friday and is now blind (bilateral retina detachment as a result of ultra high blood pressure). Nursing her through, but thought she was a goner for a while there.
Bless you, that sounds traumatic! Glad you have her for a little longer.
If the all-Italy shut down does go ahead, are we going to the return of border controls at Menton and across the alpine range?
In lockdown Milan, Malpensa airport, they are just right now boarding the Emirates flight to Dubai. How can you be in lockdown quarantine, self isolation and all the rest of it when you are busy flying virus to all parts of the globe every few minutes?
Agreed. I’m talking about Italy’s neighbours. The Italians themselves have proved utter amateurs at organising a lockdown in a virus colony.
My wife is a primary school teaching assistant in Tooting. A good friend of a friend of hers has confirmed coronavirus, with pneumonia. He's in his mid 30s.
My wife is understandably concerned, not least that she might have it (asymptomatically) and then give it to the kids, and thus spread it all around Tooting (some might say that's a good thing, but hey).
However, being a good citizen she went into work - but she asked the head, an Aussie lady, if she could wear gloves and a mask, to protect the kids.
The headmistress went loopy and said You're just fear-mongering, so my wife patiently explained exactly why she was a risk (just one person removed from a confirmed case), and then the headteacher said, in these exact words "that's not how viruses work, you can't catch it indirectly, the government said so".
This is a head teacher, who doesn't even know the basics of science, and how disease spreads.
We're fecked.
Similar story with my wife who is a Primary teacher.
Headteacher clueless, teaching assistants in her class are sniping away in the background when my wife is getting the kids to wash their hands. It's just like the flu, over the top etc.
Washing hands is over the top. In a school.
This disease is a Darwinian test of human intelligence. The thick are going to die, basically. Trouble is, in their stupidity, they endanger the rest of us, too.
Can we assume that you are now self-isolating and no longer planning to move out of London ?
I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.
I was pleased to find my local branch was still stocked with coffee filters, would have hated to have been unable to make coffee on my return from Cyprus next week.
Waitrose was short of toilet paper and strong bread flour last Wednesday, had no problem finding both products in Tesco a mile away. How far it reflects smaller stock level in store, or rise in demand is open to question.
No signs of fist fights or trolley wars over last sun dried foccacia loaf.
Sainsbury was basically fine today in Godalming - cheap pasta and cheap long-life milk sold out, but pay a bit more for posh pasta and organic milk (which you should anyway) and it was there. Some fairly full trolleys but nothing ridiculous.
Had my Mum and Dad's much beloved family pooch put down today. Me and Mum stayed with her, Dad couldn't do it. Not been the best day. Apologies if I've been tetchier than usual.
Likewise. My sympathies.
I am having to take an emotionally wrenching decision, right now, and I have probably been snappier than normal. Apologies.
Albanian wine now that the Macedonian stuff has run out?
I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.
I am not sure. I think it’s a bit tricksy.
As our friend from Tokyo has said;
Wash your hands. Encourage home working, if you can. Avoid large groups, if you can. Get ready for school closures when the virus is significant enough. Do not panic, this is nasty but beatable.
The government should text the above or a version to every mobile phone in the country.
Meanwhile, ban all flights to and from Italy and Iran. Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
Had my Mum and Dad's much beloved family pooch put down today. Me and Mum stayed with her, Dad couldn't do it. Not been the best day. Apologies if I've been tetchier than usual.
Lucky, feeling for you. Our 17-year old house cat had a stroke on Friday and is now blind (bilateral retina detachment as a result of ultra high blood pressure). Nursing her through, but thought she was a goner for a while there.
Bless you, that sounds traumatic! Glad you have her for a little longer.
Thank you. The sudden blindness panicked her for a while, but she has calmed down now, and purrs constantly when held. She lived up to her name - Buffy (the Vet Tech Slayer) - biting a tech at the Vet's who was pilling her.
If the all-Italy shut down does go ahead, are we going to the return of border controls at Menton and across the alpine range?
In lockdown Milan, Malpensa airport, they are just right now boarding the Emirates flight to Dubai. How can you be in lockdown quarantine, self isolation and all the rest of it when you are busy flying virus to all parts of the globe every few minutes?
I doubt there’s many on that plane. UAE are now testing everyone at the airport on arrival and you’ll be quarantined until the negative result comes though.
So tragedy is repeated as farce as we now get to see the Italians race across the porous EU borders to escape the quarantine.
I’m a freedom of movement man in normal times but if I were France, Austria, Switzerland and Slovenia, I’d be closing the border now. Alpine patrols in ski resorts included. Are there enough French cops to double up as border guards at Chamonix etc to control their border?
As a minor aside, I wonder if all this exceptional crisis and drama, on the last day before MIchigan, could give Sanders' agenda a lifeline. It's unlikely, but who knows.
I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.
I am not sure. I think it’s a bit tricksy.
As our friend from Tokyo has said;
Wash your hands. Encourage home working, if you can. Avoid large groups, if you can. Get ready for school closures when the virus is significant enough. Do not panic, this is nasty but beatable.
The government should text the above or a version to every mobile phone in the country.
Meanwhile, ban all flights to and from Italy and Iran. Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
I would love to think we could help both those countries. Let's hope that Roche drug is all it's cracked up to be, and really does blunt the worst impacts of the virus. That'll be a significant boost to the medical community fighting this.
I mentioned before that the death rate in "closed" cases is surprisingly consistent at 6% and has been for 2 weeks now as the numbers become more and more statistically significant but I have just come across the Italian figure:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
37% of closed cases have ended in death. That's getting close to Black death levels. Weirdly, their percentage of active cases in a serious condition is much, much lower, below average in fact, at 10%
"getting close to Black Death levels" is not a phrase I ever expected to see on PB. And I for one find it a tad unsettling, but maybe that's just me.
It’s also inaccurate
Well, it is strictly accurate if you look at Italy's resolved CFR. If you look at that of France, this is twice as bad as the Black Death.
But of course we all know (as DavidL knows) that these statistics are warped by the early stage of the disease. We are seeing the first wave of deaths, long before the majority can be classed as "recovered".
That said, Italy's ongoing fatality rate is perturbing. Around 4%, I think.
I mentioned before that the death rate in "closed" cases is surprisingly consistent at 6% and has been for 2 weeks now as the numbers become more and more statistically significant but I have just come across the Italian figure:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
37% of closed cases have ended in death. That's getting close to Black death levels. Weirdly, their percentage of active cases in a serious condition is much, much lower, below average in fact, at 10%
"getting close to Black Death levels" is not a phrase I ever expected to see on PB. And I for one find it a tad unsettling, but maybe that's just me.
It’s also inaccurate
Well, it is strictly accurate if you look at Italy's resolved CFR. If you look at that of France, this is twice as bad as the Black Death.
But of course we all know (as DavidL knows) that these statistics are warped by the early stage of the disease. We are seeing the first wave of deaths, long before the majority can be classed as "recovered".
That said, Italy's ongoing fatality rate is perturbing. Around 4%, I think.
The Black Death stuff is silly.
Yeah, I'm not sure how a minor plague in the 14th century compares to this monster.
So what they are saying they are not going to test for Coronavirus either now or later but the assumption now is that people with flu like symptoms now don't have the virus but later they will due to the spread. This means no actual control until the disease is rampant and doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
No that's not what they're saying. They're doing over a thousand tests per day.
It seems countries that are successful at reducing the death rate have three lines of defence. The first line is lots of testing to ensure cases are picked up early. Those then go into quarantine to ensure they don't pass the virus on. The second line of defence is effective separation of those with the virus from those without. The third line is the availability of high quality intensive care for those that are seriously ill.
If our government says we assume those with mild symptoms don't have the Coronavirus we effectively bypass the first line of defence. It also makes the second line much less effective because mild cases are probably just as infectious as serious ones, but these won't be in quarantine. So we are relying on the third line of defence in a system that is likely to be overwhelmed, cf Italy and Hubei.
It may just be that we don't have the resources to test at the required level. Which is disappointing, especially as Korea is testing at ten times the rate we are. We are where we are, I guess. So we fall back on the second line of defence, but we are not really doing that either at the moment. The only form of containment we have in place right now is the government urging people to wash their hands.
None of this fills me with confidence.
That's not what they're suggesting!
They are implying exactly that. I checked the Public Health England advice. The only recommendation is that those with flu like symptoms should not take part in sporting events. There was no advice on getting the symptoms checked out or staying away from other people outside of sporting events.
More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -
'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'
Yes, people make a big deal of the authoritarian nature of the Chinese response but by and large people *want* to reduce their risk. This is an unusual case where the irrational fear response (scared of an unusual but new risk with, so far, a low base rate) serves the common good (a strong reaction everywhere reduces spread in the crucial few cases where it counts).
What you need is for the government to take a lead. Japan has shut down nearly all events with no coercion, and got millions of people working from home with just a recommendation. People want to do this, but they don't want to look like they're panicking or not taking their jobs seriously.
The countries like Britain that refuse to do the things that are working in east Asia will just end up doing far more disruptive things when the problem is worse.
I just got the slightly sinking feeling we might be having a little bit of reverse psychology played on us.
CMO: you know, we might have tell all mild fevers to self isolate in 10-14 days time. People: Wtaf, do it NOW!! (All exit to self isolate)
8-dimensional chess, that'll be it.
Nope, you're being governed by chancers and bullshitters and they're way out of their depth.
Jeez, the Italians have gone from 888 to 9172 cases in 10 days.
So doubling about every 3 days. Eeesh.
Our numbers have gone up by 1.5 in last two days.
Recent doubling times = Italy ~3 days UK ~4 days Denmark similar (the UK and Denmark are more culturally similar than either is to Italy.)
All are adjustable downwards by ordering the population to adopt modified habits, like not touching surfaces and then one's mouth (or nose?)
UK govt: just do it. Before 1979, you considered it your duty to keep the population safe and secure. Some MPs, even Tories do still think this is your role.
More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -
'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'
Or they've run out of testing kits. I don't believe for a moment that new infections have almost entirely stopped in China.
The rate of infection per million in SK and Italy is almost 3x the rate in China. SK in particular has done pretty much everything that China did. That is a remarkable difference. The numbers in Wuhan are right up with SK and Italy. The numbers in the other Chinese provinces are ...not. Is it possible that incredibly strong action limited the spread of this virus in this way? Maybe. Likely? No.
Entirely possible, though. Their lockdown of Shanghai, when there was a handful of cases there, would be like us (though we’d be able to do it far less effectively) locking down London now. If you stop social mixing almost completely, you stop the virus. At a cost.
I mentioned before that the death rate in "closed" cases is surprisingly consistent at 6% and has been for 2 weeks now as the numbers become more and more statistically significant but I have just come across the Italian figure:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
37% of closed cases have ended in death. That's getting close to Black death levels. Weirdly, their percentage of active cases in a serious condition is much, much lower, below average in fact, at 10%
"getting close to Black Death levels" is not a phrase I ever expected to see on PB. And I for one find it a tad unsettling, but maybe that's just me.
It’s also inaccurate
And most unhelpful.
My next trip to Pakistan, to work on a national infection control approach for CCHF (Crimea Congo Hemorrhaging Fever), has been delayed indefinitely. CCHF has a mortality rate of around 40%. Granted, it has no pandemic potential, but each 'season' it causes grief to the families of those who get it. What is the opportunity cost - not just economic, but also public health - of all the things not being done because of COVID? That is one of the considerations for why we should not be shutting everything down.
The needs of the current crisis need to be balanced against the opportunity costs created by all of the containment and countermeasures.
More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -
'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'
Yes, people make a big deal of the authoritarian nature of the Chinese response but by and large people *want* to reduce their risk. This is an unusual case where the irrational fear response (scared of an unusual but new risk with, so far, a low base rate) serves the common good (a strong reaction everywhere reduces spread in the crucial few cases where it counts).
What you need is for the government to take a lead. Japan has shut down nearly all events with no coercion, and got millions of people working from home with just a recommendation. People want to do this, but they don't want to look like they're panicking or not taking their jobs seriously.
The countries like Britain that refuse to do the things that are working in east Asia will just end up doing far more disruptive things when the problem is worse.
I just got the slightly sinking feeling we might be having a little bit of reverse psychology played on us.
CMO: you know, we might have tell all mild fevers to self isolate in 10-14 days time. People: Wtaf, do it NOW!! (All exit to self isolate)
8-dimensional chess, that'll be it.
Nope, you're being governed by chancers and bullshitters and they're way out of their depth.
They are not chancers there are some serious minds working on this. But I think there is a danger of not being able to see the wood for the trees. The parameters in the model might not be factoring in the fact that the rest of world is doing something quite different to what was expected.
I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.
Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.
This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong
I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.
Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.
This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong
Capacity constraints in diagnostics.
The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.
I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
I mentioned before that the death rate in "closed" cases is surprisingly consistent at 6% and has been for 2 weeks now as the numbers become more and more statistically significant but I have just come across the Italian figure:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
37% of closed cases have ended in death. That's getting close to Black death levels. Weirdly, their percentage of active cases in a serious condition is much, much lower, below average in fact, at 10%
"getting close to Black Death levels" is not a phrase I ever expected to see on PB. And I for one find it a tad unsettling, but maybe that's just me.
It’s also inaccurate
Well, it is strictly accurate if you look at Italy's resolved CFR. If you look at that of France, this is twice as bad as the Black Death.
But of course we all know (as DavidL knows) that these statistics are warped by the early stage of the disease. We are seeing the first wave of deaths, long before the majority can be classed as "recovered".
That said, Italy's ongoing fatality rate is perturbing. Around 4%, I think.
The Black Death stuff is silly.
Yeah, I'm not sure how a minor plague in the 14th century compares to this monster.
More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -
'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'
Yes, people make a big deal of the authoritarian nature of the Chinese response but by and large people *want* to reduce their risk. This is an unusual case where the irrational fear response (scared of an unusual but new risk with, so far, a low base rate) serves the common good (a strong reaction everywhere reduces spread in the crucial few cases where it counts).
What you need is for the government to take a lead. Japan has shut down nearly all events with no coercion, and got millions of people working from home with just a recommendation. People want to do this, but they don't want to look like they're panicking or not taking their jobs seriously.
The countries like Britain that refuse to do the things that are working in east Asia will just end up doing far more disruptive things when the problem is worse.
I just got the slightly sinking feeling we might be having a little bit of reverse psychology played on us.
CMO: you know, we might have tell all mild fevers to self isolate in 10-14 days time. People: Wtaf, do it NOW!! (All exit to self isolate)
I think to some extent Johnson and other western politicians want to be lead by public opinion rather than lead it. So they will wait until the infection or death rate makes a policy unavoidable before they introduce it. As I said earlier, I get the impression Johnson is fine with intervention that people don't notice. He doesn't want intervention that requires people to change their behaviours.
Jeez, the Italians have gone from 888 to 9172 cases in 10 days.
So doubling about every 3 days. Eeesh.
Our numbers have gone up by 1.5 in last two days.
Recent doubling times = Italy ~3 days UK ~4 days Denmark similar (the UK and Denmark are more culturally similar than either is to Italy.)
All are adjustable downwards by ordering the population to adopt modified habits, like not touching surfaces and then one's mouth (or nose?)
UK govt: just do it. Before 1979, you considered it your duty to keep the population safe and secure. Some MPs, even Tories do still think this is your role.
More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -
'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'
Or they've run out of testing kits. I don't believe for a moment that new infections have almost entirely stopped in China.
The rate of infection per million in SK and Italy is almost 3x the rate in China. SK in particular has done pretty much everything that China did. That is a remarkable difference. The numbers in Wuhan are right up with SK and Italy. The numbers in the other Chinese provinces are ...not. Is it possible that incredibly strong action limited the spread of this virus in this way? Maybe. Likely? No.
Entirely possible, though. Their lockdown of Shanghai, when there was a handful of cases there, would be like us (though we’d be able to do it far less effectively) locking down London now. If you stop social mixing almost completely, you stop the virus. At a cost.
They shut down the Shanghai region. That’s a population equivalent to the UK and an area equal to the SE, East Anglia and London. The love being shown to totalitarian dictatorships here is unsurprising but pretty dispiriting. Fascinating though in the hypocrisy that’s on display.
This disease is a Darwinian test of human intelligence. The thick are going to die, basically. Trouble is, in their stupidity, they endanger the rest of us, too.
The other Darwinian angle to this is that it shows there's some survival logic to people's fear responses that still applies in the modern world. Be scared of new things, be scared of things you can't see, be scared threats even if they have a low base rate. These are all individually irrational, but they can stop a disease killing the tribe.
History has shown France is rubbish at closing their borders, heck they'll have surrendered and will be collaborating with the coronavirus this time next week.
So what they are saying they are not going to test for Coronavirus either now or later but the assumption now is that people with flu like symptoms now don't have the virus but later they will due to the spread. This means no actual control until the disease is rampant and doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
No that's not what they're saying. They're doing over a thousand tests per day.
It seems countries that are successful at reducing the death rate have three lines of defence. The first line is lots of testing to ensure cases are picked up early. Those then go into quarantine to ensure they don't pass the virus on. The second line of defence is effective separation of those with the virus from those without. The third line is the availability of high quality intensive care for those that are seriously ill.
If our government says we assume those with mild symptoms don't have the Coronavirus we effectively bypass the first line of defence. It also makes the second line much less effective because mild cases are probably just as infectious as serious ones, but these won't be in quarantine. So we are relying on the third line of defence in a system that is likely to be overwhelmed, cf Italy and Hubei.
It may just be that we don't have the resources to test at the required level. Which is disappointing, especially as Korea is testing at ten times the rate we are. We are where we are, I guess. So we fall back on the second line of defence, but we are not really doing that either at the moment. The only form of containment we have in place right now is the government urging people to wash their hands.
None of this fills me with confidence.
That's not what they're suggesting!
They are implying exactly that. I checked the Public Health England advice. The only recommendation is that those with flu like symptoms should not take part in sporting events. There was no advice on getting the symptoms checked out or staying away from other people outside of sporting events.
No, if you have certain symptoms you should call 111.
If you don't but have other ones you should self-isolate.
That's not the same as saying that they're abandoning testing.
I am unconcerned about the risk to my health. I am concerned about the risk to our financial health as Covid-19 rapidly snowballs into large parts of the developed world locking themselves down.
A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.
If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.
Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.
Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10
So what they are saying they are not going to test for Coronavirus either now or later but the assumption now is that people with flu like symptoms now don't have the virus but later they will due to the spread. This means no actual control until the disease is rampant and doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
No that's not what they're saying. They're doing over a thousand tests per day.
It seems countries that are successful at reducing the death rate have three lines of defence. The first line is lots of testing to ensure cases are picked up early. Those then go into quarantine to ensure they don't pass the virus on. The second line of defence is effective separation of those with the virus from those without. The third line is the availability of high quality intensive care for those that are seriously ill.
If our government says we assume those with mild symptoms don't have the Coronavirus we effectively bypass the first line of defence. It also makes the second line much less effective because mild cases are probably just as infectious as serious ones, but these won't be in quarantine. So we are relying on the third line of defence in a system that is likely to be overwhelmed, cf Italy and Hubei.
It may just be that we don't have the resources to test at the required level. Which is disappointing, especially as Korea is testing at ten times the rate we are. We are where we are, I guess. So we fall back on the second line of defence, but we are not really doing that either at the moment. The only form of containment we have in place right now is the government urging people to wash their hands.
None of this fills me with confidence.
Agreed.
Reported on the radio that they were considering assuming those with mild symptoms might be infected... in a week or two’s time. That seems more than a little stupid. The earlier you try to stop the spread, the more effective intervention is likely to be.
History has shown France is rubbish at closing their borders, heck they'll have surrendered and will be collaborating with the coronavirus this time next week.
We better go sink its navy to stop the virus getting here.....
I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.
Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.
This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong
Capacity constraints in diagnostics.
The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.
I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
ICU capacity will of course be a disaster but given the supply constraints of trained staff is one I can understand. You can't have lots of idle staff waiting around for some potential pandemic. However testing and diagnostics should be low cost, highly automated and be capable of ramping up rapidly without requiring large numbers of trained staff. That's where the contingency planning should have gone into, not these too clever by half, reverse psychology government pronouncements.
So what they are saying they are not going to test for Coronavirus either now or later but the assumption now is that people with flu like symptoms now don't have the virus but later they will due to the spread. This means no actual control until the disease is rampant and doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
No that's not what they're saying. They're doing over a thousand tests per day.
It seems countries that are successful at reducing the death rate have three lines of defence. The first line is lots of testing to ensure cases are picked up early. Those then go into quarantine to ensure they don't pass the virus on. The second line of defence is effective separation of those with the virus from those without. The third line is the availability of high quality intensive care for those that are seriously ill.
If our government says we assume those with mild symptoms don't have the Coronavirus we effectively bypass the first line of defence. It also makes the second line much less effective because mild cases are probably just as infectious as serious ones, but these won't be in quarantine. So we are relying on the third line of defence in a system that is likely to be overwhelmed, cf Italy and Hubei.
It may just be that we don't have the resources to test at the required level. Which is disappointing, especially as Korea is testing at ten times the rate we are. We are where we are, I guess. So we fall back on the second line of defence, but we are not really doing that either at the moment. The only form of containment we have in place right now is the government urging people to wash their hands.
None of this fills me with confidence.
That's not what they're suggesting!
They are implying exactly that. I checked the Public Health England advice. The only recommendation is that those with flu like symptoms should not take part in sporting events. There was no advice on getting the symptoms checked out or staying away from other people outside of sporting events.
No, if you have certain symptoms you should call 111.
If you don't but have other ones you should self-isolate.
That's not the same as saying that they're abandoning testing.
Here in Wales we have an online checker and advise app
I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.
Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.
This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong
Capacity constraints in diagnostics.
The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.
I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
ICU capacity will of course be a disaster but given the supply constraints of trained staff is one I can understand. You can't have lots of idle staff waiting around for some potential pandemic. However testing and diagnostics should be low cost, highly automated and be capable of ramping up rapidly without requiring large numbers of trained staff. That's where the contingency planning should have gone into, not these too clever by half, reverse psychology government pronouncements.
Whatever happens the actual tests take 24 hours to complete in a lab according to the CDC. So the turnaround time of 72 hours between swabbing and getting notified of the results is probably not that far off the standard. That is the same lead time as is being quoted in Germany, South Korea and the US.
I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.
Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.
This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong
Capacity constraints in diagnostics.
The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.
I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
ICU capacity will of course be a disaster but given the supply constraints of trained staff is one I can understand. You can't have lots of idle staff waiting around for some potential pandemic. However testing and diagnostics should be low cost, highly automated and be capable of ramping up rapidly without requiring large numbers of trained staff. That's where the contingency planning should have gone into, not these too clever by half, reverse psychology government pronouncements.
It requires skilled technicians so has similar capacity issues. However, I hope we have sent an envoy to SOK to see if we can learn anything.
From my own interactions with health care professionals, the idea that the NHS is well prepared is just fanciful.
Assume we stopping all flights to / from Italy following tonights lockdown of all of Italy?
I assumed things like that earlier with the press conference, but apparently not. It seems odd *not* to be doing that if another country is entirely locking itself down, and you're claiming to be able to micro-manage the situation at home well enough to stagger the spread of the outbreak, really.
This disease is a Darwinian test of human intelligence. The thick are going to die, basically. Trouble is, in their stupidity, they endanger the rest of us, too.
The other Darwinian angle to this is that it shows there's some survival logic to people's fear responses that still applies in the modern world. Be scared of new things, be scared of things you can't see, be scared threats even if they have a low base rate. These are all individually irrational, but they can stop a disease killing the tribe.
For it to be a Darwinian test of our intelligence, there'd have to be natural selection (i.e. death/survival) based on behaviours indicated by intelligent analysis. But this virus is not killing on that basis - it's killing based on age (thereby having no evolutionary impact as 80-year olds have already procreated if there were going to, and would not be procreating even if they survive) and on existing serious medical condition - not on failure to adopt intelligence-derived behaviours.
I am unconcerned about the risk to my health. I am concerned about the risk to our financial health as Covid-19 rapidly snowballs into large parts of the developed world locking themselves down.
A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.
If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.
Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.
Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10
Nonsense. The supermarkets were talking to government today and this is not Boris, this is his medical experts who with respect will know more than yourself
Indeed, outside of the idiotic Trump most countries are acting on medical advise
History has shown France is rubbish at closing their borders, heck they'll have surrendered and will be collaborating with the coronavirus this time next week.
We better go sink its navy to stop the virus getting here.....
No finer way to honour the year of the 80th anniversary of the Royal Navy's stunning performance at Mers-el-Kébir.
I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.
Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.
This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong
Capacity constraints in diagnostics.
The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.
I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
ICU capacity will of course be a disaster but given the supply constraints of trained staff is one I can understand. You can't have lots of idle staff waiting around for some potential pandemic. However testing and diagnostics should be low cost, highly automated and be capable of ramping up rapidly without requiring large numbers of trained staff. That's where the contingency planning should have gone into, not these too clever by half, reverse psychology government pronouncements.
Whatever happens the actual tests take 24 hours to complete in a lab according to the CDC. So the turnaround time of 72 hours between swabbing and getting notified of the results is probably not that far off the standard. That is the same lead time as is being quoted in Germany, South Korea and the US.
24 hours is fine, 96 hours is not. This should have been a predictable problem and should have been planned for. Especially given 'contain' was the first line of defence.
"Concerns had been expressed that the time taken to get test results back from swabbed patients had slipped in recent weeks from one or two days – PHE’s target – to as much as four days."
I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.
Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.
This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong
Capacity constraints in diagnostics.
The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.
I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
ICU capacity will of course be a disaster but given the supply constraints of trained staff is one I can understand. You can't have lots of idle staff waiting around for some potential pandemic. However testing and diagnostics should be low cost, highly automated and be capable of ramping up rapidly without requiring large numbers of trained staff. That's where the contingency planning should have gone into, not these too clever by half, reverse psychology government pronouncements.
The advantages of a centralised system are things like national testing programmes and co-ordinated responses from central government, but against that is a lack of spare capacity in the system. This is the UK system
In Germany (or the USA), they have loads of ICU beds, but very poor co-ordination and multiple levels of bureaucracy between the national public health team and the patient on the ground.
My wife is a primary school teaching assistant in Tooting. A good friend of a friend of hers has confirmed coronavirus, with pneumonia. He's in his mid 30s.
My wife is understandably concerned, not least that she might have it (asymptomatically) and then give it to the kids, and thus spread it all around Tooting (some might say that's a good thing, but hey).
However, being a good citizen she went into work - but she asked the head, an Aussie lady, if she could wear gloves and a mask, to protect the kids.
The headmistress went loopy and said You're just fear-mongering, so my wife patiently explained exactly why she was a risk (just one person removed from a confirmed case), and then the headteacher said, in these exact words "that's not how viruses work, you can't catch it indirectly, the government said so".
This is a head teacher, who doesn't even know the basics of science, and how disease spreads.
We're fecked.
Similar story with my wife who is a Primary teacher.
Headteacher clueless, teaching assistants in her class are sniping away in the background when my wife is getting the kids to wash their hands. It's just like the flu, over the top etc.
Washing hands is over the top. In a school.
In contrast, my wife’s Primary ran out of soap today...
So what they are saying they are not going to test for Coronavirus either now or later but the assumption now is that people with flu like symptoms now don't have the virus but later they will due to the spread. This means no actual control until the disease is rampant and doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
No that's not what they're saying. They're doing over a thousand tests per day.
It seems countries that are successful at reducing the death rate have three lines of defence. The first line is lots of testing to ensure cases are picked up early. Those then go into quarantine to ensure they don't pass the virus on. The second line of defence is effective separation of those with the virus from those without. The third line is the availability of high quality intensive care for those that are seriously ill.
If our government says we assume those with mild symptoms don't have the Coronavirus we effectively bypass the first line of defence. It also makes the second line much less effective because mild cases are probably just as infectious as serious ones, but these won't be in quarantine. So we are relying on the third line of defence in a system that is likely to be overwhelmed, cf Italy and Hubei.
It may just be that we don't have the resources to test at the required level. Which is disappointing, especially as Korea is testing at ten times the rate we are. We are where we are, I guess. So we fall back on the second line of defence, but we are not really doing that either at the moment. The only form of containment we have in place right now is the government urging people to wash their hands.
None of this fills me with confidence.
That's not what they're suggesting!
They are implying exactly that. I checked the Public Health England advice. The only recommendation is that those with flu like symptoms should not take part in sporting events. There was no advice on getting the symptoms checked out or staying away from other people outside of sporting events.
No, if you have certain symptoms you should call 111.
If you don't but have other ones you should self-isolate.
That's not the same as saying that they're abandoning testing.
Calling 111 is general advice for anyone feeling ill. Self isolation for other symptoms is explicitly not current advice - see the Tweet from Public Health England in this thread. I never suggested they have abandoned testing. I suggested they aren't using it comprehensively for everyone with potential symptoms. Which means it's not an effective line of defence. If people are also not self-isolating as a precaution, the second line of defence falls as well.
So what they are saying they are not going to test for Coronavirus either now or later but the assumption now is that people with flu like symptoms now don't have the virus but later they will due to the spread. This means no actual control until the disease is rampant and doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
No that's not what they're saying. They're doing over a thousand tests per day.
It seems countries that are successful at reducing the death rate have three lines of defence. The first line is lots of testing to ensure cases are picked up early. Those then go into quarantine to ensure they don't pass the virus on. The second line of defence is effective separation of those with the virus from those without. The third line is the availability of high quality intensive care for those that are seriously ill.
If our government says we assume those with mild symptoms don't have the Coronavirus we effectively bypass the first line of defence. It also makes the second line much less effective because mild cases are probably just as infectious as serious ones, but these won't be in quarantine. So we are relying on the third line of defence in a system that is likely to be overwhelmed, cf Italy and Hubei.
It may just be that we don't have the resources to test at the required level. Which is disappointing, especially as Korea is testing at ten times the rate we are. We are where we are, I guess. So we fall back on the second line of defence, but we are not really doing that either at the moment. The only form of containment we have in place right now is the government urging people to wash their hands.
None of this fills me with confidence.
Agreed.
Reported on the radio that they were considering assuming those with mild symptoms might be infected... in a week or two’s time. That seems more than a little stupid. The earlier you try to stop the spread, the more effective intervention is likely to be.
It looks like they are trying to time the peak of the virus for late April/May, which means not stopping a low level of spreading now. The advantage is that it makes a clash of resource demand with flu next winter less likely, as well as allowing the economy to recover in the second half of the year.
It is risky and a horrible decision to have to make, but trying to fully contain the virus now is also risky and might end up with worse outcomes.
History has shown France is rubbish at closing their borders, heck they'll have surrendered and will be collaborating with the coronavirus this time next week.
We better go sink its navy to stop the virus getting here.....
I am unconcerned about the risk to my health. I am concerned about the risk to our financial health as Covid-19 rapidly snowballs into large parts of the developed world locking themselves down.
A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.
If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.
Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.
Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10
Nonsense. The supermarkets were talking to government today and this is not Boris, this is his medical experts who with respect will know more than yourself
Indeed, outside of the idiotic Trump most countries are acting on medical advise
FWIW, I do not think that solely medical advice should be driving responses.
We need to look at the total impact of proposed actions - not just the positive impacts on the crisis, but all the negative impacts of the countermeasures. Medical experts are not experts in those other aspects. We need them, but we need others in the mix too to decide the totality of governments' responses.
Assume we stopping all flights to / from Italy following tonights lockdown of all of Italy?
I assumed things like that earlier with the press conference, but apparently not. It seems odd *not* to be doing that if another country is entirely locking itself down, and you're claiming to be able to micro-manage the situation at home, really.
The ban has only just been announced and hours after the press conference
I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.
Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.
This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong
Capacity constraints in diagnostics.
The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.
I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
ICU capacity will of course be a disaster but given the supply constraints of trained staff is one I can understand. You can't have lots of idle staff waiting around for some potential pandemic. However testing and diagnostics should be low cost, highly automated and be capable of ramping up rapidly without requiring large numbers of trained staff. That's where the contingency planning should have gone into, not these too clever by half, reverse psychology government pronouncements.
Whatever happens the actual tests take 24 hours to complete in a lab according to the CDC. So the turnaround time of 72 hours between swabbing and getting notified of the results is probably not that far off the standard. That is the same lead time as is being quoted in Germany, South Korea and the US.
24 hours is fine, 96 hours is not. This should have been a predictable problem and should have been planned for. Especially given 'contain' was the first line of defence.
"Concerns had been expressed that the time taken to get test results back from swabbed patients had slipped in recent weeks from one or two days – PHE’s target – to as much as four days."
24 hours is just the time to get the actual test done. You have to get the swabs to the testing centre first and then get the results checked and back afterwards. Yes if it slips to 4 days that is bad but you are never going to get it much better than 2 days given the logistics and the actual testing time involved.
Jeez, the Italians have gone from 888 to 9172 cases in 10 days.
So doubling about every 3 days. Eeesh.
Our numbers have gone up by 1.5 in last two days.
Recent doubling times = Italy ~3 days UK ~4 days Denmark similar (the UK and Denmark are more culturally similar than either is to Italy.)
All are adjustable downwards by ordering the population to adopt modified habits, like not touching surfaces and then one's mouth (or nose?)
UK govt: just do it. Before 1979, you considered it your duty to keep the population safe and secure. Some MPs, even Tories do still think this is your role.
More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -
'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'
Or they've run out of testing kits. I don't believe for a moment that new infections have almost entirely stopped in China.
The rate of infection per million in SK and Italy is almost 3x the rate in China. SK in particular has done pretty much everything that China did. That is a remarkable difference. The numbers in Wuhan are right up with SK and Italy. The numbers in the other Chinese provinces are ...not. Is it possible that incredibly strong action limited the spread of this virus in this way? Maybe. Likely? No.
Entirely possible, though. Their lockdown of Shanghai, when there was a handful of cases there, would be like us (though we’d be able to do it far less effectively) locking down London now. If you stop social mixing almost completely, you stop the virus. At a cost.
They shut down the Shanghai region. That’s a population equivalent to the UK and an area equal to the SE, East Anglia and London. The love being shown to totalitarian dictatorships here is unsurprising but pretty dispiriting. Fascinating though in the hypocrisy that’s on display.
This is nothing to do with love for totalitarianism. I was merely pointing out their claim to have got it under control is credible.
Would I rather out government were able to do what they did ? No.
Fascinating the lack of comprehension on display...
Assume we stopping all flights to / from Italy following tonights lockdown of all of Italy?
I assumed things like that earlier with the press conference, but apparently not. It seems odd *not* to be doing that if another country is entirely locking itself down, and you're claiming to be able to micro-manage the situation at home, really.
The ban has only just been announced and hours after the press conference
However the terrible figures from Italy came in earlier in the day.
I don't think the government is doing too badly so far, but I'm not at all sure its management has been exemplary so far either.
I am unconcerned about the risk to my health. I am concerned about the risk to our financial health as Covid-19 rapidly snowballs into large parts of the developed world locking themselves down.
A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.
If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.
Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.
Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10
Nonsense. The supermarkets were talking to government today and this is not Boris, this is his medical experts who with respect will know more than yourself
Indeed, outside of the idiotic Trump most countries are acting on medical advise
FWIW, I do not think that solely medical advice should be driving responses.
We need to look at the total impact of proposed actions - not just the positive impacts on the crisis, but all the negative impacts of the countermeasures. Medical experts are not experts in those other aspects. We need them, but we need others in the mix too to decide the totality of governments' responses.
Fair comment but the wider position will be advised by experts on civil contingencies
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781
The UK is starting from a baseline that it is comfortable with. That means it is positioning to the EU as not wanting anything.
Headteacher clueless, teaching assistants in her class are sniping away in the background when my wife is getting the kids to wash their hands. It's just like the flu, over the top etc.
Washing hands is over the top. In a school.
If anyone tries to persuade you that the only way to defeat the virus involves accompanying them to an abandoned warehouse in the middle of the night, don't go.
We have been there multiple times over the years and the sadness is very real
This conversation is absolute toilet.
I think it’s a bit tricksy.
As our friend from Tokyo has said;
Wash your hands.
Encourage home working, if you can.
Avoid large groups, if you can.
Get ready for school closures when the virus is significant enough.
Do not panic, this is nasty but beatable.
The government should text the above or a version to every mobile phone in the country.
Meanwhile, ban all flights to and from Italy and Iran.
Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/coronavirus-uae-steps-up-virus-checks-at-airports-and-warns-against-travel-abroad-1.988399
Nope, you're being governed by chancers and bullshitters and they're way out of their depth.
Their lockdown of Shanghai, when there was a handful of cases there, would be like us (though we’d be able to do it far less effectively) locking down London now.
If you stop social mixing almost completely, you stop the virus. At a cost.
And most unhelpful.
My next trip to Pakistan, to work on a national infection control approach for CCHF (Crimea Congo Hemorrhaging Fever), has been delayed indefinitely. CCHF has a mortality rate of around 40%. Granted, it has no pandemic potential, but each 'season' it causes grief to the families of those who get it. What is the opportunity cost - not just economic, but also public health - of all the things not being done because of COVID? That is one of the considerations for why we should not be shutting everything down.
The needs of the current crisis need to be balanced against the opportunity costs created by all of the containment and countermeasures.
This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong
Is not Barnesian in Italy at the moment?
My recollection is he is in South Tirol.
How does the restriction apply to tourists?
The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.
I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
If you don't but have other ones you should self-isolate.
That's not the same as saying that they're abandoning testing.
A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.
If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.
Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.
Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10
Reported on the radio that they were considering assuming those with mild symptoms might be infected... in a week or two’s time.
That seems more than a little stupid. The earlier you try to stop the spread, the more effective intervention is likely to be.
From my own interactions with health care professionals, the idea that the NHS is well prepared is just fanciful.
I gave him a tut and stare so hard I basically publicly suckerpunched him.
Indeed, outside of the idiotic Trump most countries are acting on medical advise
"Concerns had been expressed that the time taken to get test results back from swabbed patients had slipped in recent weeks from one or two days – PHE’s target – to as much as four days."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/nhs-testing-people-coronavirus-ease-strain-on-phe
In Germany (or the USA), they have loads of ICU beds, but very poor co-ordination and multiple levels of bureaucracy between the national public health team and the patient on the ground.
It is risky and a horrible decision to have to make, but trying to fully contain the virus now is also risky and might end up with worse outcomes.
We need to look at the total impact of proposed actions - not just the positive impacts on the crisis, but all the negative impacts of the countermeasures. Medical experts are not experts in those other aspects. We need them, but we need others in the mix too to decide the totality of governments' responses.
I was merely pointing out their claim to have got it under control is credible.
Would I rather out government were able to do what they did ? No.
Fascinating the lack of comprehension on display...
I don't think the government is doing too badly so far, but I'm not at all sure its management has been exemplary so far either.
https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/08/telecom-operators-in-india-warn-people-of-coronavirus-outbreak-share-tips/