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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,933
    edited March 2020

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    So what they are saying they are not going to test for Coronavirus either now or later but the assumption now is that people with flu like symptoms now don't have the virus but later they will due to the spread. This means no actual control until the disease is rampant and doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
    No that's not what they're saying. They're doing over a thousand tests per day.
    It seems countries that are successful at reducing the death rate have three lines of defence. The first line is lots of testing to ensure cases are picked up early. Those then go into quarantine to ensure they don't pass the virus on. The second line of defence is effective separation of those with the virus from those without. The third line is the availability of high quality intensive care for those that are seriously ill.

    If our government says we assume those with mild symptoms don't have the Coronavirus we effectively bypass the first line of defence. It also makes the second line much less effective because mild cases are probably just as infectious as serious ones, but these won't be in quarantine. So we are relying on the third line of defence in a system that is likely to be overwhelmed, cf Italy and Hubei.

    It may just be that we don't have the resources to test at the required level. Which is disappointing, especially as Korea is testing at ten times the rate we are. We are where we are, I guess. So we fall back on the second line of defence, but we are not really doing that either at the moment. The only form of containment we have in place right now is the government urging people to wash their hands.

    None of this fills me with confidence.
    Agreed.

    Reported on the radio that they were considering assuming those with mild symptoms might be infected... in a week or two’s time.
    That seems more than a little stupid. The earlier you try to stop the spread, the more effective intervention is likely to be.
    It looks like they are trying to time the peak of the virus for late April/May, which means not stopping a low level of spreading now. The advantage is that it makes a clash of resource demand with flu next winter less likely, as well as allowing the economy to recover in the second half of the year.

    It is risky and a horrible decision to have to make, but trying to fully contain the virus now is also risky and might end up with worse outcomes.
    There saying ‘ten days or so’.
    Trying to time it with that kind of precision seems pointlessly risky.

    And the cost of asking the mildly sick to stay home sooner than that seems minimal.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    edited March 2020
    eadric said:

    JonathanD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

    I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
    I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

    Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
    Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

    This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

    Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

    The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

    I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
    I presume HMG is right now setting up dozens of new ICUs??

    I imagine recruiting the right staff is harder...
    Perhaps we should get building some hospitals. Could we get it done in about a week?

    A comment that I will never ever forget from pb was the Chinese decision to build that hospital being described as a 'dead cat'.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

    I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
    I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

    Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
    Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

    This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

    Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

    The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

    I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
    ICU capacity will of course be a disaster but given the supply constraints of trained staff is one I can understand. You can't have lots of idle staff waiting around for some potential pandemic. However testing and diagnostics should be low cost, highly automated and be capable of ramping up rapidly without requiring large numbers of trained staff. That's where the contingency planning should have gone into, not these too clever by half, reverse psychology government pronouncements.
    Whatever happens the actual tests take 24 hours to complete in a lab according to the CDC. So the turnaround time of 72 hours between swabbing and getting notified of the results is probably not that far off the standard. That is the same lead time as is being quoted in Germany, South Korea and the US.
    24 hours is fine, 96 hours is not. This should have been a predictable problem and should have been planned for. Especially given 'contain' was the first line of defence.

    "Concerns had been expressed that the time taken to get test results back from swabbed patients had slipped in recent weeks from one or two days – PHE’s target – to as much as four days."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/nhs-testing-people-coronavirus-ease-strain-on-phe
    24 hours is just the time to get the actual test done. You have to get the swabs to the testing centre first and then get the results checked and back afterwards. Yes if it slips to 4 days that is bad but you are never going to get it much better than 2 days given the logistics and the actual testing time involved.
    I don't uncritically believe everything I read on the internet but South Korea does seem to be showing how its done.



    "The tests can deliver results within hours, with sensitivity rates of over 90% and are relatively easy to administer.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-04/south-korea-tests-hundreds-of-thousands-to-fight-virus-outbreak
  • I am unconcerned about the risk to my health. I am concerned about the risk to our financial health as Covid-19 rapidly snowballs into large parts of the developed world locking themselves down.

    A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.

    If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.

    Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.

    Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10

    Nonsense. The supermarkets were talking to government today and this is not Boris, this is his medical experts who with respect will know more than yourself

    Indeed, outside of the idiotic Trump most countries are acting on medical advise
    Good news if that's finally happening. It absolutely hadn't happened at the weekend when cretin minsters briefed that it had. Believe me I'm on The Grocer multiple times a day. If it's happening they are reporting it.

    As for medical advice, Italy shuts down travel because risk of spread, the UK let's people slipping out of quarantine zones to wander in unchecked. Doesn't seem like medical advice, more political expediency.

    Unless our CMO and his Italian counterpart have a radical different understanding of how the virus spreads...?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    I am unconcerned about the risk to my health. I am concerned about the risk to our financial health as Covid-19 rapidly snowballs into large parts of the developed world locking themselves down.

    A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.

    If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.

    Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.

    Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10

    Nonsense. The supermarkets were talking to government today and this is not Boris, this is his medical experts who with respect will know more than yourself

    Indeed, outside of the idiotic Trump most countries are acting on medical advise
    Are you claiming to be better informed about the Food Industry than someone who actually works in it?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    eadric said:

    JonathanD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

    I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
    I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

    Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
    Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

    This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

    Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

    The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

    I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
    I presume HMG is right now setting up dozens of new ICUs??

    I imagine recruiting the right staff is harder...
    I assume they’ve got military field hospitals on standby, to provide cover where required.

    Contingency plans for Civ and Mil medics will involve calling up the recently retired or resigned.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

    I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
    I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

    Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
    Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

    This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

    Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

    The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

    I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
    ICU capacity will of course be a disaster but given the supply constraints of trained staff is one I can understand. You can't have lots of idle staff waiting around for some potential pandemic. However testing and diagnostics should be low cost, highly automated and be capable of ramping up rapidly without requiring large numbers of trained staff. That's where the contingency planning should have gone into, not these too clever by half, reverse psychology government pronouncements.
    Whatever happens the actual tests take 24 hours to complete in a lab according to the CDC. So the turnaround time of 72 hours between swabbing and getting notified of the results is probably not that far off the standard. That is the same lead time as is being quoted in Germany, South Korea and the US.
    24 hours is fine, 96 hours is not. This should have been a predictable problem and should have been planned for. Especially given 'contain' was the first line of defence.

    "Concerns had been expressed that the time taken to get test results back from swabbed patients had slipped in recent weeks from one or two days – PHE’s target – to as much as four days."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/nhs-testing-people-coronavirus-ease-strain-on-phe
    24 hours is just the time to get the actual test done. You have to get the swabs to the testing centre first and then get the results checked and back afterwards. Yes if it slips to 4 days that is bad but you are never going to get it much better than 2 days given the logistics and the actual testing time involved.
    I don't uncritically believe everything I read on the internet but South Korea does seem to be showing how its done.



    "The tests can deliver results within hours, with sensitivity rates of over 90% and are relatively easy to administer.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-04/south-korea-tests-hundreds-of-thousands-to-fight-virus-outbreak
    How far over 90%? Because 91, 92% would not be very useful when you're doing that many tests.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I am tempted to say what I think, but I think some people may think of less of me.

    So, I will only say Nikki Haley is 95 for GOP nominee.
    If Trump succumbs (not necessarily death, but -say- getting seriously sick), then why wouldn't Pence be the nominee?
    If the Republican nominee were to die before the election, the rules of the Republican Party authorize the Republican National Committee to fill the vacancy, either by (re)convening a national convention or by having RNC state representatives vote.
    Sure.

    But wouldn't they choose the sitting Vice President rather that someone else?

    It's simply the path of least resistance.
    Make the man who was supposed to stop people dying of the Coronavirus in charge of the nation after he let them man in charge of the nation die of coronavirus?

    I see some PR problems with that.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:

    JonathanD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

    I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
    I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

    Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
    Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

    This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

    Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

    The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

    I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
    I presume HMG is right now setting up dozens of new ICUs??

    I imagine recruiting the right staff is harder...
    I assume they’ve got military field hospitals on standby, to provide cover where required.

    Contingency plans for Civ and Mil medics will involve calling up the recently retired or resigned.
    There was a great article reported in the Guardian on that the other day reporting responses from recently retired medics and nurses.

    There wasn't much 'your country needs you!' spirit therein more like 'on yer bike sunshine'.
  • I am unconcerned about the risk to my health. I am concerned about the risk to our financial health as Covid-19 rapidly snowballs into large parts of the developed world locking themselves down.

    A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.

    If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.

    Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.

    Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10

    Nonsense. The supermarkets were talking to government today and this is not Boris, this is his medical experts who with respect will know more than yourself

    Indeed, outside of the idiotic Trump most countries are acting on medical advise
    Are you claiming to be better informed about the Food Industry than someone who actually works in it?
    Of course not.

    The supermarkets speaking to HMG today was reported on by the media
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,403

    I am unconcerned about the risk to my health. I am concerned about the risk to our financial health as Covid-19 rapidly snowballs into large parts of the developed world locking themselves down.

    A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.

    If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.

    Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.

    Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10

    Nonsense. The supermarkets were talking to government today and this is not Boris, this is his medical experts who with respect will know more than yourself

    Indeed, outside of the idiotic Trump most countries are acting on medical advise
    Good news if that's finally happening. It absolutely hadn't happened at the weekend when cretin minsters briefed that it had. Believe me I'm on The Grocer multiple times a day. If it's happening they are reporting it.

    As for medical advice, Italy shuts down travel because risk of spread, the UK let's people slipping out of quarantine zones to wander in unchecked. Doesn't seem like medical advice, more political expediency.

    Unless our CMO and his Italian counterpart have a radical different understanding of how the virus spreads...?
    George Eustace met with the supermarket executives last Friday - according to the supermarkets themselves quoted in the Guardian. This was the first of what they referred to as 'a string of meetings'.

    The situation is bad. Making stuff up as you are here doesn't help.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846

    Scott_xP said:
    The turd laid by the Crufts winner is better in a crisis than that wazzock
    It certainly had great timing. Had it appeared twenty minutes earlier it would have cost him the trophy.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,403
    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

    I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
    I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

    Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
    Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

    This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

    Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

    The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

    I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
    ICU capacity will of course be a disaster but given the supply constraints of trained staff is one I can understand. You can't have lots of idle staff waiting around for some potential pandemic. However testing and diagnostics should be low cost, highly automated and be capable of ramping up rapidly without requiring large numbers of trained staff. That's where the contingency planning should have gone into, not these too clever by half, reverse psychology government pronouncements.
    Whatever happens the actual tests take 24 hours to complete in a lab according to the CDC. So the turnaround time of 72 hours between swabbing and getting notified of the results is probably not that far off the standard. That is the same lead time as is being quoted in Germany, South Korea and the US.
    24 hours is fine, 96 hours is not. This should have been a predictable problem and should have been planned for. Especially given 'contain' was the first line of defence.

    "Concerns had been expressed that the time taken to get test results back from swabbed patients had slipped in recent weeks from one or two days – PHE’s target – to as much as four days."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/nhs-testing-people-coronavirus-ease-strain-on-phe
    24 hours is just the time to get the actual test done. You have to get the swabs to the testing centre first and then get the results checked and back afterwards. Yes if it slips to 4 days that is bad but you are never going to get it much better than 2 days given the logistics and the actual testing time involved.
    I don't uncritically believe everything I read on the internet but South Korea does seem to be showing how its done.



    "The tests can deliver results within hours, with sensitivity rates of over 90% and are relatively easy to administer.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-04/south-korea-tests-hundreds-of-thousands-to-fight-virus-outbreak
    The Koreans themselves as well as CDC are quoting the same 24 hours for the test to be completed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    Coronavirus has totally overshadowed the death of Ming the Merciless.

    It's inhumanity knows no bounds.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    This is going back a bit. Who was the poster on PB who had a conspiracy theory website? Tried to put my finger on it, but can’t remember. Imagine he’s having a field day at the moment.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644
    eadric said:

    Just spoke to a super successful businessman friend.

    He says his last supplies from Asia are about to dry up, and that's it. After that his business cannot function. There is still demand, but he simply cannot satisfy it.

    How many others are in the same boat?

    Lots.

    The significant lasting impact of this is going to be economic rather than health-related*.

    (*Always recognising that for a small minority the health impact wil be devastating.)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    edited March 2020

    I am unconcerned about the risk to my health. I am concerned about the risk to our financial health as Covid-19 rapidly snowballs into large parts of the developed world locking themselves down.

    A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.

    If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.

    Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.

    Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10

    Nonsense. The supermarkets were talking to government today and this is not Boris, this is his medical experts who with respect will know more than yourself

    Indeed, outside of the idiotic Trump most countries are acting on medical advise
    Are you claiming to be better informed about the Food Industry than someone who actually works in it?
    He doesn't seem that well informed if the supermarkets themselves said they had meetings last week. Just because you work in a sector does not make you omniscient to everything that is going on in said sector.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,798
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    So what they are saying they are not going to test for Coronavirus either now or later but the assumption now is that people with flu like symptoms now don't have the virus but later they will due to the spread. This means no actual control until the disease is rampant and doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
    No that's not what they're saying. They're doing over a thousand tests per day.
    It seems countries that are successful at reducing the death rate have three lines of defence. The first line is lots of testing to ensure cases are picked up early. Those then go into quarantine to ensure they don't pass the virus on. The second line of defence is effective separation of those with the virus from those without. The third line is the availability of high quality intensive care for those that are seriously ill.

    If our government says we assume those with mild symptoms don't have the Coronavirus we effectively bypass the first line of defence. It also makes the second line much less effective because mild cases are probably just as infectious as serious ones, but these won't be in quarantine. So we are relying on the third line of defence in a system that is likely to be overwhelmed, cf Italy and Hubei.

    It may just be that we don't have the resources to test at the required level. Which is disappointing, especially as Korea is testing at ten times the rate we are. We are where we are, I guess. So we fall back on the second line of defence, but we are not really doing that either at the moment. The only form of containment we have in place right now is the government urging people to wash their hands.

    None of this fills me with confidence.
    Agreed.

    Reported on the radio that they were considering assuming those with mild symptoms might be infected... in a week or two’s time.
    That seems more than a little stupid. The earlier you try to stop the spread, the more effective intervention is likely to be.
    It looks like they are trying to time the peak of the virus for late April/May, which means not stopping a low level of spreading now. The advantage is that it makes a clash of resource demand with flu next winter less likely, as well as allowing the economy to recover in the second half of the year.

    It is risky and a horrible decision to have to make, but trying to fully contain the virus now is also risky and might end up with worse outcomes.
    There saying ‘ten days or so’.
    Trying to time it with that kind of precision seems pointlessly risky.

    And the cost of asking the mildly sick to stay home sooner than that seems minimal.
    In a complex scenario, lots of things can "seem" right that arent right. They have obviously considered it and decided on the current path - the scientists seem completely on board. Second guessing them without their level of data, expertise and input from science, health, economists isnt for me.

    If the scientists in charge take a stand against the govt that would be very different, but they were all on the same page at todays conference, with the PM filling in gaps rather than looking like the decision maker.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,280
    UK coronavirus warm spots. Given these are based on no more than about 13 cases per local authority area and some on this list on as few as 2 in a small borough, it would be incorrect to view these as outbreaks, but rather places where the initial outbreaks are looking a little more likely, especially where neighbouring areas appear. It is perfectly possible for 13 cases to be in a closed group who have all been isolated and the infection chain broken:

    >5 cases per 100k residents: Torbay, Kensington and Chelsea
    > 2 per 100k: Brighton & Hove
    >1 per 100k: Devon, Bracknell Forest, Wokingham, Ealing, Hounslow, Hammersmith&Fulham, Westminster, Southwark, Camden, Barnet, Hertfordshire, Liverpool, Trafford, Bury, Oldham, York, Cumbria, Newcastle uT
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,493
    edited March 2020
    Floater said:

    Assume we stopping all flights to / from Italy following tonights lockdown of all of Italy?

    They have just completed boarding for Milan to Stanstead, 21.30 departure time. One of hundreds and hundreds of flights from Italy today carrying the virus to all parts of the globe. Some, but not most, of Milan's flights tomorrow are cancelled. Most are planned to fly as of now. In other news, shaking hands with friends in isolated rural neighbourhoods is frowned upon as deadly dangerous. A proportionate and consistent approach would help.
  • I am unconcerned about the risk to my health. I am concerned about the risk to our financial health as Covid-19 rapidly snowballs into large parts of the developed world locking themselves down.

    A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.

    If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.

    Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.

    Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10

    Nonsense. The supermarkets were talking to government today and this is not Boris, this is his medical experts who with respect will know more than yourself

    Indeed, outside of the idiotic Trump most countries are acting on medical advise
    Good news if that's finally happening. It absolutely hadn't happened at the weekend when cretin minsters briefed that it had. Believe me I'm on The Grocer multiple times a day. If it's happening they are reporting it.

    As for medical advice, Italy shuts down travel because risk of spread, the UK let's people slipping out of quarantine zones to wander in unchecked. Doesn't seem like medical advice, more political expediency.

    Unless our CMO and his Italian counterpart have a radical different understanding of how the virus spreads...?
    I agree that it had not happened over the weekend but it was reported today by the media

    I do accept that this is not an easy crisis to manage but with Italy closing it borders tonight further measures will have to be put in place
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

    I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
    I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

    Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
    Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

    This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

    Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

    The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

    I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
    ICU capacity will of course be a disaster but given the supply constraints of trained staff is one I can understand. You can't have lots of idle staff waiting around for some potential pandemic. However testing and diagnostics should be low cost, highly automated and be capable of ramping up rapidly without requiring large numbers of trained staff. That's where the contingency planning should have gone into, not these too clever by half, reverse psychology government pronouncements.
    Whatever happens the actual tests take 24 hours to complete in a lab according to the CDC. So the turnaround time of 72 hours between swabbing and getting notified of the results is probably not that far off the standard. That is the same lead time as is being quoted in Germany, South Korea and the US.
    24 hours is fine, 96 hours is not. This should have been a predictable problem and should have been planned for. Especially given 'contain' was the first line of defence.

    "Concerns had been expressed that the time taken to get test results back from swabbed patients had slipped in recent weeks from one or two days – PHE’s target – to as much as four days."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/nhs-testing-people-coronavirus-ease-strain-on-phe
    24 hours is just the time to get the actual test done. You have to get the swabs to the testing centre first and then get the results checked and back afterwards. Yes if it slips to 4 days that is bad but you are never going to get it much better than 2 days given the logistics and the actual testing time involved.
    I don't uncritically believe everything I read on the internet but South Korea does seem to be showing how its done.



    "The tests can deliver results within hours, with sensitivity rates of over 90% and are relatively easy to administer.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-04/south-korea-tests-hundreds-of-thousands-to-fight-virus-outbreak
    The Koreans themselves as well as CDC are quoting the same 24 hours for the test to be completed.
    Could be wrong but it sounds like the Koreans might be using a range of different modalities for testing. Perhaps relying on the PCR gold-standard test for high risk cases, whilst relying on this quicker but less-sensitive test for screening.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,556

    Coronavirus has totally overshadowed the death of Ming the Merciless.

    It's inhumanity knows no bounds.

    Max has finished his game of chess.

    I was surprised that he was only 90.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited March 2020
    The Guardian are now reporting the restrictions on truck drivers that deliver food are being altered.

    It is clear lots of things are going on behind the scenes.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Jonathan said:

    This is going back a bit. Who was the poster on PB who had a conspiracy theory website? Tried to put my finger on it, but can’t remember. Imagine he’s having a field day at the moment.

    I dare say all streets lead to Finchley Road.
  • I am unconcerned about the risk to my health. I am concerned about the risk to our financial health as Covid-19 rapidly snowballs into large parts of the developed world locking themselves down.

    A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.

    If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.

    Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.

    Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10

    Nonsense. The supermarkets were talking to government today and this is not Boris, this is his medical experts who with respect will know more than yourself

    Indeed, outside of the idiotic Trump most countries are acting on medical advise
    Good news if that's finally happening. It absolutely hadn't happened at the weekend when cretin minsters briefed that it had. Believe me I'm on The Grocer multiple times a day. If it's happening they are reporting it.

    As for medical advice, Italy shuts down travel because risk of spread, the UK let's people slipping out of quarantine zones to wander in unchecked. Doesn't seem like medical advice, more political expediency.

    Unless our CMO and his Italian counterpart have a radical different understanding of how the virus spreads...?
    I agree that it had not happened over the weekend but it was reported today by the media

    I do accept that this is not an easy crisis to manage but with Italy closing it borders tonight further measures will have to be put in place
    From The Grocer: "A supplier source added: “The fact that this is the first meeting of the group is very surprising considering how long this has been going on. I have read reports that the government has been working closely with the industry on planning for this crisis but that is certainly not the case as far as we are concerned.”

    On the bright side this is a warm up for no deal at the end of the year.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    A second Oxford University student has tested positive, the institution has said.

    Universities really do need to get shut down. Unlike schools there is no real downside.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,403
    edited March 2020

    I am unconcerned about the risk to my health. I am concerned about the risk to our financial health as Covid-19 rapidly snowballs into large parts of the developed world locking themselves down.

    A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.

    If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.

    Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.

    Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10

    Nonsense. The supermarkets were talking to government today and this is not Boris, this is his medical experts who with respect will know more than yourself

    Indeed, outside of the idiotic Trump most countries are acting on medical advise
    Good news if that's finally happening. It absolutely hadn't happened at the weekend when cretin minsters briefed that it had. Believe me I'm on The Grocer multiple times a day. If it's happening they are reporting it.

    As for medical advice, Italy shuts down travel because risk of spread, the UK let's people slipping out of quarantine zones to wander in unchecked. Doesn't seem like medical advice, more political expediency.

    Unless our CMO and his Italian counterpart have a radical different understanding of how the virus spreads...?
    I agree that it had not happened over the weekend but it was reported today by the media

    I do accept that this is not an easy crisis to manage but with Italy closing it borders tonight further measures will have to be put in place
    It happened last Friday according to the Supermarket Executives. They were bemoaning the fact that Hancock had claimed there had been meetings earlier in the week but were pleased they happened on Friday. The claim that "It absolutely hadn't happened at the weekend" is at best inaccurate and at worst purposefully misleading.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,556

    I am unconcerned about the risk to my health. I am concerned about the risk to our financial health as Covid-19 rapidly snowballs into large parts of the developed world locking themselves down.

    A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.

    If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.

    Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.

    Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10

    Nonsense. The supermarkets were talking to government today and this is not Boris, this is his medical experts who with respect will know more than yourself

    Indeed, outside of the idiotic Trump most countries are acting on medical advise
    Good news if that's finally happening. It absolutely hadn't happened at the weekend when cretin minsters briefed that it had. Believe me I'm on The Grocer multiple times a day. If it's happening they are reporting it.

    As for medical advice, Italy shuts down travel because risk of spread, the UK let's people slipping out of quarantine zones to wander in unchecked. Doesn't seem like medical advice, more political expediency.

    Unless our CMO and his Italian counterpart have a radical different understanding of how the virus spreads...?
    George Eustace met with the supermarket executives last Friday - according to the supermarkets themselves quoted in the Guardian. This was the first of what they referred to as 'a string of meetings'.

    The situation is bad. Making stuff up as you are here doesn't help.
    The government is relaxing restrictions on delivery hours for shops to make sure shops remain stocked with basic items amid stockpiling concerns.

    The environment department, Defra said it would work with local councils to increase the frequency of deliveries.

    Environment Secretary George Eustice said by allowing night-time deliveries, stock would be able to move more quickly from warehouses to shelves.

    Deliveries are currently restricted overnight to avoid disturbing locals.

    The temporary measures have been brought in after a meeting on Friday between leading supermarkets and Mr Eustice. It saw firms call for help from the government to deal with increased demand from customers amid the coronavirus outbreak.

    Mr Eustice said: "We have listened to our leading supermarkets and representatives from across the industry, and we are taking action to support their preparations."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51800046
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,493
    edited March 2020

    A second Oxford University student has tested positive, the institution has said.

    Universities really do need to get shut down. Unlike schools there is no real downside.

    A second Oxford University student has tested positive, the institution has said.

    Universities really do need to get shut down. Unlike schools there is no real downside.

    Quite. How would you tell?

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,403

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

    I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
    I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

    Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
    Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

    This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

    Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

    The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

    I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
    ICU capacity will of course be a disaster but given the supply constraints of trained staff is one I can understand. You can't have lots of idle staff waiting around for some potential pandemic. However testing and diagnostics should be low cost, highly automated and be capable of ramping up rapidly without requiring large numbers of trained staff. That's where the contingency planning should have gone into, not these too clever by half, reverse psychology government pronouncements.
    Whatever happens the actual tests take 24 hours to complete in a lab according to the CDC. So the turnaround time of 72 hours between swabbing and getting notified of the results is probably not that far off the standard. That is the same lead time as is being quoted in Germany, South Korea and the US.
    24 hours is fine, 96 hours is not. This should have been a predictable problem and should have been planned for. Especially given 'contain' was the first line of defence.

    "Concerns had been expressed that the time taken to get test results back from swabbed patients had slipped in recent weeks from one or two days – PHE’s target – to as much as four days."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/nhs-testing-people-coronavirus-ease-strain-on-phe
    24 hours is just the time to get the actual test done. You have to get the swabs to the testing centre first and then get the results checked and back afterwards. Yes if it slips to 4 days that is bad but you are never going to get it much better than 2 days given the logistics and the actual testing time involved.
    I don't uncritically believe everything I read on the internet but South Korea does seem to be showing how its done.



    "The tests can deliver results within hours, with sensitivity rates of over 90% and are relatively easy to administer.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-04/south-korea-tests-hundreds-of-thousands-to-fight-virus-outbreak
    The Koreans themselves as well as CDC are quoting the same 24 hours for the test to be completed.
    Could be wrong but it sounds like the Koreans might be using a range of different modalities for testing. Perhaps relying on the PCR gold-standard test for high risk cases, whilst relying on this quicker but less-sensitive test for screening.
    Would make sense and account for the differing claims.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    Has Italy closed its borders or not?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    Right, my mother in law just rang to ask if I would like her to order us extra loo roll. I am not sure I handled the conversation well. Not really prepared for that.
  • .
    Jonathan said:

    This is going back a bit. Who was the poster on PB who had a conspiracy theory website? Tried to put my finger on it, but can’t remember. Imagine he’s having a field day at the moment.

    Wasn't it something like Tap?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

    I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
    I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

    Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
    Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

    This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

    Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

    The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

    I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
    ICU capacity will of course be a disaster but given the supply constraints of trained staff is one I can understand. You can't have lots of idle staff waiting around for some potential pandemic. However testing and diagnostics should be low cost, highly automated and be capable of ramping up rapidly without requiring large numbers of trained staff. That's where the contingency planning should have gone into, not these too clever by half, reverse psychology government pronouncements.
    Whatever happens the actual tests take 24 hours to complete in a lab according to the CDC. So the turnaround time of 72 hours between swabbing and getting notified of the results is probably not that far off the standard. That is the same lead time as is being quoted in Germany, South Korea and the US.
    24 hours is fine, 96 hours is not. This should have been a predictable problem and should have been planned for. Especially given 'contain' was the first line of defence.

    "Concerns had been expressed that the time taken to get test results back from swabbed patients had slipped in recent weeks from one or two days – PHE’s target – to as much as four days."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/nhs-testing-people-coronavirus-ease-strain-on-phe
    24 hours is just the time to get the actual test done. You have to get the swabs to the testing centre first and then get the results checked and back afterwards. Yes if it slips to 4 days that is bad but you are never going to get it much better than 2 days given the logistics and the actual testing time involved.
    I don't uncritically believe everything I read on the internet but South Korea does seem to be showing how its done.



    "The tests can deliver results within hours, with sensitivity rates of over 90% and are relatively easy to administer.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-04/south-korea-tests-hundreds-of-thousands-to-fight-virus-outbreak
    Hours for results is what Maryland public health are saying now that they can be done in state.

    Commercial labs, once their processes are validated, have the capacity to scale this massively.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited March 2020
    algarkirk said:

    A second Oxford University student has tested positive, the institution has said.

    Universities really do need to get shut down. Unlike schools there is no real downside.

    A second Oxford University student has tested positive, the institution has said.

    Universities really do need to get shut down. Unlike schools there is no real downside.

    Quite. How would you tell?

    I actually meant for teaching, obviously not certain research. But 70+ are already on strike until Easter holidays anyway and as I reported yesterday, WHC is now being recommended at a leading institution.

    I would send the kids home now, rather wait another 3 weeks, where the germ factory does it business, then they go home taking it with them.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    A second Oxford University student has tested positive, the institution has said.

    Universities really do need to get shut down. Unlike schools there is no real downside.

    Hilary term anyhow ends 14th March. Just five days to go.
  • My point on food supplies is simple. The government is going to have to start locking chunks of the UK down. If it wants to keep people from really panicking it might want to consider how food will appear on shelves in such circumstances.

    And with respect, a minister having a PR meeting that produces no ideas of substance is not working a plan.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644

    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:

    JonathanD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

    I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
    I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

    Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
    Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

    This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

    Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

    The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

    I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
    I presume HMG is right now setting up dozens of new ICUs??

    I imagine recruiting the right staff is harder...
    I assume they’ve got military field hospitals on standby, to provide cover where required.

    Contingency plans for Civ and Mil medics will involve calling up the recently retired or resigned.
    There was a great article reported in the Guardian on that the other day reporting responses from recently retired medics and nurses.

    There wasn't much 'your country needs you!' spirit therein more like 'on yer bike sunshine'.
    I think there will be plenty of retired medics who will get involved if asked - most after all went into their profession with a public service ethos.

    Of course it won't be hard for any paper to find a few of the "on yer bike" persuasion to quote.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    My point on food supplies is simple. The government is going to have to start locking chunks of the UK down. If it wants to keep people from really panicking it might want to consider how food will appear on shelves in such circumstances.

    And with respect, a minister having a PR meeting that produces no ideas of substance is not working a plan.

    At least you've backtracked from your claim that there have been no meetings at all. That's a start.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509

    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:

    JonathanD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

    I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
    I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

    Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
    Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

    This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

    Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

    The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

    I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
    I presume HMG is right now setting up dozens of new ICUs??

    I imagine recruiting the right staff is harder...
    I assume they’ve got military field hospitals on standby, to provide cover where required.

    Contingency plans for Civ and Mil medics will involve calling up the recently retired or resigned.
    There was a great article reported in the Guardian on that the other day reporting responses from recently retired medics and nurses.

    There wasn't much 'your country needs you!' spirit therein more like 'on yer bike sunshine'.
    What a grateful attitude from the caring professionals.

    Civil Contingencies Act it is then, let’s hope they enjoy conscription.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    I am unconcerned about the risk to my health. I am concerned about the risk to our financial health as Covid-19 rapidly snowballs into large parts of the developed world locking themselves down.

    A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.

    If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.

    Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.

    Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10

    Nonsense. The supermarkets were talking to government today and this is not Boris, this is his medical experts who with respect will know more than yourself

    Indeed, outside of the idiotic Trump most countries are acting on medical advise
    Good news if that's finally happening. It absolutely hadn't happened at the weekend when cretin minsters briefed that it had. Believe me I'm on The Grocer multiple times a day. If it's happening they are reporting it.

    As for medical advice, Italy shuts down travel because risk of spread, the UK let's people slipping out of quarantine zones to wander in unchecked. Doesn't seem like medical advice, more political expediency.

    Unless our CMO and his Italian counterpart have a radical different understanding of how the virus spreads...?
    I agree that it had not happened over the weekend but it was reported today by the media

    I do accept that this is not an easy crisis to manage but with Italy closing it borders tonight further measures will have to be put in place
    From The Grocer: "A supplier source added: “The fact that this is the first meeting of the group is very surprising considering how long this has been going on. I have read reports that the government has been working closely with the industry on planning for this crisis but that is certainly not the case as far as we are concerned.”

    On the bright side this is a warm up for no deal at the end of the year.
    Won’t happen now. I’m expecting the transition period to be extended indefinitely. Too much going on at the moment and the government won’t want to face that lest a relapse of the virus next winter.
  • Jonathan said:

    Right, my mother in law just rang to ask if I would like her to order us extra loo roll. I am not sure I handled the conversation well. Not really prepared for that.

    She can *order* it. Whether there is stock in their pick stores is another question.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,933
    A headline of marvellous ambiguity....

    “ Republicans who came in contact with Trump self-quarantine”
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/09/doug-collins-trump-self-quarantine-124523
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605

    .

    Jonathan said:

    This is going back a bit. Who was the poster on PB who had a conspiracy theory website? Tried to put my finger on it, but can’t remember. Imagine he’s having a field day at the moment.

    Wasn't it something like Tap?
    It was, thanks! I got confused with Tabman and thought it was “the tab“. So close. That was driving me crazy.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited March 2020
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:

    JonathanD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

    I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
    I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

    Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
    Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

    This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

    Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

    The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

    I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
    I presume HMG is right now setting up dozens of new ICUs??

    I imagine recruiting the right staff is harder...
    I assume they’ve got military field hospitals on standby, to provide cover where required.

    Contingency plans for Civ and Mil medics will involve calling up the recently retired or resigned.
    There was a great article reported in the Guardian on that the other day reporting responses from recently retired medics and nurses.

    There wasn't much 'your country needs you!' spirit therein more like 'on yer bike sunshine'.
    What a grateful attitude from the caring professionals.

    Civil Contingencies Act it is then, let’s hope they enjoy conscription.
    This attitude is generally a response to the under-funding of the NHS over most of the last decade, and the sense of their needs having been ignored. Medical education is in crisis, for instance - many teaching hospitals have unprecedentedly given up on the crucial training grand rounds because of staff pressures, according to a close relative of mine in the NHS.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited March 2020

    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:

    JonathanD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

    I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
    I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

    Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
    Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

    This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

    Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

    The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

    I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
    I presume HMG is right now setting up dozens of new ICUs??

    I imagine recruiting the right staff is harder...
    I assume they’ve got military field hospitals on standby, to provide cover where required.

    Contingency plans for Civ and Mil medics will involve calling up the recently retired or resigned.
    There was a great article reported in the Guardian on that the other day reporting responses from recently retired medics and nurses.

    There wasn't much 'your country needs you!' spirit therein more like 'on yer bike sunshine'.
    I think there will be plenty of retired medics who will get involved if asked - most after all went into their profession with a public service ethos.

    Of course it won't be hard for any paper to find a few of the "on yer bike" persuasion to quote.
    I found some of the press approach to the PM press conference really poor and uncomfortable. They used it to try and score silly political points as if it was normal times, and questioning the experts, constantly claiming what about Italy, what about...

    What we need at the moment is for the press to trust the experts and help amplify the messages.

    We also had a blue check mark journo spreading a heavily edited clip of Boris, taking his words out of context, again to try and make him look bad.

    This is a war. This isn't about trying to slam Bonking Boris because of Brexit or whatever you don't like about him (and I am no fan).
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    edited March 2020

    Jonathan said:

    Right, my mother in law just rang to ask if I would like her to order us extra loo roll. I am not sure I handled the conversation well. Not really prepared for that.

    She can *order* it. Whether there is stock in their pick stores is another question.
    I‘ve just downloaded some and printed it out. Swipe right, wipe left.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644
    Anyone know why there is a huge discrepancy between the reported US cases on WHO (213) and Worldometer (624)?

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200309-sitrep-49-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=70dabe61_2

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:

    JonathanD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

    I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
    I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

    Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
    Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

    This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

    Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

    The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

    I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
    I presume HMG is right now setting up dozens of new ICUs??

    I imagine recruiting the right staff is harder...
    I assume they’ve got military field hospitals on standby, to provide cover where required.

    Contingency plans for Civ and Mil medics will involve calling up the recently retired or resigned.
    There was a great article reported in the Guardian on that the other day reporting responses from recently retired medics and nurses.

    There wasn't much 'your country needs you!' spirit therein more like 'on yer bike sunshine'.
    What a grateful attitude from the caring professionals.

    Civil Contingencies Act it is then, let’s hope they enjoy conscription.
    The attitude is generally a response to the under-funding of the NHS in most of the last decade.
    These are the same doctors and nurses who will be drawing their generous NHS pensions?
  • I am unconcerned about the risk to my health. I am concerned about the risk to our financial health as Covid-19 rapidly snowballs into large parts of the developed world locking themselves down.

    A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.

    If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.

    Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.

    Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10

    Nonsense. The supermarkets were talking to government today and this is not Boris, this is his medical experts who with respect will know more than yourself

    Indeed, outside of the idiotic Trump most countries are acting on medical advise
    Good news if that's finally happening. It absolutely hadn't happened at the weekend when cretin minsters briefed that it had. Believe me I'm on The Grocer multiple times a day. If it's happening they are reporting it.

    As for medical advice, Italy shuts down travel because risk of spread, the UK let's people slipping out of quarantine zones to wander in unchecked. Doesn't seem like medical advice, more political expediency.

    Unless our CMO and his Italian counterpart have a radical different understanding of how the virus spreads...?
    I agree that it had not happened over the weekend but it was reported today by the media

    I do accept that this is not an easy crisis to manage but with Italy closing it borders tonight further measures will have to be put in place
    It happened last Friday according to the Supermarket Executives. They were bemoaning the fact that Hancock had claimed there had been meetings earlier in the week but were pleased they happened on Friday. The claim that "It absolutely hadn't happened at the weekend" is at best inaccurate and at worst purposefully misleading.
    Minister Eustace says "“Our retailers have well-established contingency plans in place and are taking all the necessary steps to ensure consumers have the food and supplies they need. I will continue to work closely with them over the coming days and weeks on this.”

    Mr Tyndall would you like to tell everyone what these well established contingency plans are...?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    When was that Irish General Election?

    https://twitter.com/IrishTimes/status/1237132574515814400
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,280
    Good lord, I've done that UK / England thing.
    Pro_Rata said:

    UK coronavirus warm spots. Given these are based on no more than about 13 cases per local authority area and some on this list on as few as 2 in a small borough, it would be incorrect to view these as outbreaks, but rather places where the initial outbreaks are looking a little more likely, especially where neighbouring areas appear. It is perfectly possible for 13 cases to be in a closed group who have all been isolated and the infection chain broken:

    >5 cases per 100k residents: Torbay, Kensington and Chelsea
    > 2 per 100k: Brighton & Hove
    >1 per 100k: Devon, Bracknell Forest, Wokingham, Ealing, Hounslow, Hammersmith&Fulham, Westminster, Southwark, Camden, Barnet, Hertfordshire, Liverpool, Trafford, Bury, Oldham, York, Cumbria, Newcastle uT

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    edited March 2020
    Jonathan said:

    .

    Jonathan said:

    This is going back a bit. Who was the poster on PB who had a conspiracy theory website? Tried to put my finger on it, but can’t remember. Imagine he’s having a field day at the moment.

    Wasn't it something like Tap?
    It was, thanks! I got confused with Tabman and thought it was “the tab“. So close. That was driving me crazy.
    Full handle was Tapestry I believe.

    Hunchman did his fair share of shifts too.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    The Culture Secretary in France tested positive to coronavirus.

    5 MPs are positive too: Michèle Victory (PS), Sylvie Tolmont (PS), Guillaume Vuilletet (LREM), Elisabeth Toutut-Picard (LREM), and Jean-Luc Reitzer (LR).
    Reitzer apparently in serious conditions.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    dr_spyn said:
    He's still hanging on despite coming third?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,702

    Coronavirus has totally overshadowed the death of Ming the Merciless.

    It's inhumanity knows no bounds.

    Max has finished his game of chess.

    I was surprised that he was only 90.
    He seemed quite ancient even at the beginning of his cinematic career in the 50s.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813

    Jonathan said:

    .

    Jonathan said:

    This is going back a bit. Who was the poster on PB who had a conspiracy theory website? Tried to put my finger on it, but can’t remember. Imagine he’s having a field day at the moment.

    Wasn't it something like Tap?
    It was, thanks! I got confused with Tabman and thought it was “the tab“. So close. That was driving me crazy.
    Hunchman did his fair share of shifts too.
    The good old days when we used to chuckle of the great conspiracy of 788-790 Finchley Road.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    RobD said:

    My point on food supplies is simple. The government is going to have to start locking chunks of the UK down. If it wants to keep people from really panicking it might want to consider how food will appear on shelves in such circumstances.

    And with respect, a minister having a PR meeting that produces no ideas of substance is not working a plan.

    At least you've backtracked from your claim that there have been no meetings at all. That's a start.
    Ministers claimed they had meetings with supermarkets when none had taken place. Not that such fibs matter hugely in the scheme of things but you seem to take such a patronising tone with our friend from Rochdale..
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited March 2020
    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:

    JonathanD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

    I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
    I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

    Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
    Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

    This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

    Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

    The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

    I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
    I presume HMG is right now setting up dozens of new ICUs??

    I imagine recruiting the right staff is harder...
    I assume they’ve got military field hospitals on standby, to provide cover where required.

    Contingency plans for Civ and Mil medics will involve calling up the recently retired or resigned.
    There was a great article reported in the Guardian on that the other day reporting responses from recently retired medics and nurses.

    There wasn't much 'your country needs you!' spirit therein more like 'on yer bike sunshine'.
    What a grateful attitude from the caring professionals.

    Civil Contingencies Act it is then, let’s hope they enjoy conscription.
    The attitude is generally a response to the under-funding of the NHS in most of the last decade.
    These are the same doctors and nurses who will be drawing their generous NHS pensions?
    ...and who were heavily over-worked and often stretched to their emotional and physical limit over the last 10 years. Whatever their salaries, standards have fallen because of this in some areas.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,346
    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

    I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
    I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

    Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
    Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

    This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

    Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

    The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

    I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
    ICU capacity will of course be a disaster but given the supply constraints of trained staff is one I can understand. You can't have lots of idle staff waiting around for some potential pandemic. However testing and diagnostics should be low cost, highly automated and be capable of ramping up rapidly without requiring large numbers of trained staff. That's where the contingency planning should have gone into, not these too clever by half, reverse psychology government pronouncements.
    As I understand it, intensive care could be avoided if we had more treatments to combat the worst effects of the virus. These are the drugs currently in the works for Coronavirus: https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/analysis/coronavirus-mers-cov-drugs/

    Realistically, a new vaccine is unlikely to be developed in time to zap the outbreak and everything to return to usual. BUT drugs that are already on the market for other conditions have a lot of potential. The earliest to complete its trials looks like the end of May though?

    So my question is, how much flexibility is there to use a drug licensed for use against, say, Aids, in cases of Coronavirus? Could a point be stretched due to special circumstances? Could patients sign on as part of a trial to access these therapies? The usual systems surely need review...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846

    Anyone know why there is a huge discrepancy between the reported US cases on WHO (213) and Worldometer (624)?

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200309-sitrep-49-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=70dabe61_2

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    We did this yesterday. It’s timing
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    Its War Time, it really is...

    Government could suspend competition rules and let supermarkets deliver to their rivals' customers in round-the-clock slots if coronavirus crisis hits supply

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8091947/Coronavirus-Government-allow-round-clock-supermarket-home-delivery.html
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,403
    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    My point on food supplies is simple. The government is going to have to start locking chunks of the UK down. If it wants to keep people from really panicking it might want to consider how food will appear on shelves in such circumstances.

    And with respect, a minister having a PR meeting that produces no ideas of substance is not working a plan.

    At least you've backtracked from your claim that there have been no meetings at all. That's a start.
    Ministers claimed they had meetings with supermarkets when none had taken place. Not that such fibs matter hugely in the scheme of things but you seem to take such a patronising tone with our friend from Rochdale..
    Rochdale said he knew for a fact that no meetings had taken place at least until today. He was wrong.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    That's totally correct for lockdowns in people's homes - never leaving the door.

    But pray tell, why would I get fatigue working from home thereby being able to avoid having to get on a train surrounded by coughers? Answer: I won't.

    I just want some recommendation from government so I can start organising my meetings from home. Unfortunately I have to wait for widespread transmission for me to get that reassurance.

    Likewise those with tickets to Italy needed advice from the government NOT to travel, thereby allowing them to get a refund on their tickets. But the advice has been slow in coming.

    It is nonsensical and too much all-or-nothing.

    You don't need government advice to work from home. If you're capable of doing so then do so. Its between you and your employer not the government. Many people aren't capable of working from home.
    You don't think some sort of official advice will be helpful to people in his position then?
    Exactly we need the government to say it because otherwise most employers simply won't want to start implementing those measures. We are still not allowed to work from home and it is already far worse in France than the UK so far. Too many senior people in denial. Lions led by ostriches as it were.

    While it's true that many can't work from home, even for those that must go into work it is an advantage for others to stay home, fewer people around means less risk of spreading it.
    Well this is it. I already work at home 4 days a week, so it would barely make a difference to me. But some people work for backward employers who don’t allow it unless they are told to do it. It is this group for whom government advice would be very useful.

    You point about reducing total numbers by asking those who have the facility to do so to wfh is spot on of course.
    We have explicitly not made that request. Guidance has been once people start WFH they will be there for the duration
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644

    Has Italy closed its borders or not?

    Looking at Flightradar24.com there still appear to be flights into Milan for example but not much heading out. Those active flights that are shown could now be empty of course, just returning planes to their base.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,764
    Sandpit said:

    Interesting one - phone companies in India are playing an automated public health announcement at the start of all calls:

    https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/08/telecom-operators-in-india-warn-people-of-coronavirus-outbreak-share-tips/

    47 cases in India
    16 in Pakistan
    3 in Bangladesh
    1 in Nepal
    1 in Sri Lanka
    4 in Maldives
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    FTSE now back to 2012 levels.
  • RobD said:

    My point on food supplies is simple. The government is going to have to start locking chunks of the UK down. If it wants to keep people from really panicking it might want to consider how food will appear on shelves in such circumstances.

    And with respect, a minister having a PR meeting that produces no ideas of substance is not working a plan.

    At least you've backtracked from your claim that there have been no meetings at all. That's a start.
    I missed the meeting that moved nothing onwards. None of the points I made have been answered. Tesco getting permission to deliver stuff to store overnight is exactly my point.

    When it's lockdown who will drive these trucks. Who will load these trucks. Who will shift the stuff from warehouses to the trucks. Who will make the stuff on these trucks. Who will ship the stuff from suppliers to manufacturers etc etc etc.

    There is no "well-established contingency plan". Supermarkets LAST WEEK were asking about disruption of stuff from China as if that matters now. They request our support in making more to supply more stuff faster. Great. How?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,403

    I am unconcerned about the risk to my health. I am concerned about the risk to our financial health as Covid-19 rapidly snowballs into large parts of the developed world locking themselves down.

    A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.

    If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.

    Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.

    Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10

    Nonsense. The supermarkets were talking to government today and this is not Boris, this is his medical experts who with respect will know more than yourself

    Indeed, outside of the idiotic Trump most countries are acting on medical advise
    Good news if that's finally happening. It absolutely hadn't happened at the weekend when cretin minsters briefed that it had. Believe me I'm on The Grocer multiple times a day. If it's happening they are reporting it.

    As for medical advice, Italy shuts down travel because risk of spread, the UK let's people slipping out of quarantine zones to wander in unchecked. Doesn't seem like medical advice, more political expediency.

    Unless our CMO and his Italian counterpart have a radical different understanding of how the virus spreads...?
    I agree that it had not happened over the weekend but it was reported today by the media

    I do accept that this is not an easy crisis to manage but with Italy closing it borders tonight further measures will have to be put in place
    It happened last Friday according to the Supermarket Executives. They were bemoaning the fact that Hancock had claimed there had been meetings earlier in the week but were pleased they happened on Friday. The claim that "It absolutely hadn't happened at the weekend" is at best inaccurate and at worst purposefully misleading.
    Minister Eustace says "“Our retailers have well-established contingency plans in place and are taking all the necessary steps to ensure consumers have the food and supplies they need. I will continue to work closely with them over the coming days and weeks on this.”

    Mr Tyndall would you like to tell everyone what these well established contingency plans are...?
    I have no idea, nor is it my job to know.

    But clearly the claim you made that the meeting did not take place was not correct and the fact you are still making that claim makes it look like an outright lie designed to undermine the Government.

    Would you like to tell everyone why you lied?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:

    JonathanD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

    I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
    I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

    Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
    Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

    This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

    Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

    The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

    I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
    I presume HMG is right now setting up dozens of new ICUs??

    I imagine recruiting the right staff is harder...
    I assume they’ve got military field hospitals on standby, to provide cover where required.

    Contingency plans for Civ and Mil medics will involve calling up the recently retired or resigned.
    There was a great article reported in the Guardian on that the other day reporting responses from recently retired medics and nurses.

    There wasn't much 'your country needs you!' spirit therein more like 'on yer bike sunshine'.
    I think there will be plenty of retired medics who will get involved if asked - most after all went into their profession with a public service ethos.

    Of course it won't be hard for any paper to find a few of the "on yer bike" persuasion to quote.
    I found some of the press approach to the PM press conference really poor and uncomfortable. They used it to try and score silly political points as if it was normal times, and questioning the experts, constantly claiming what about Italy, what about...

    What we need at the moment is for the press to trust the experts and help amplify the messages.

    We also had a blue check mark journo spreading a heavily edited clip of Boris, taking his words out of context, again to try and make him look bad.

    This is a war. This isn't about trying to slam Bonking Boris because of Brexit or whatever you don't like about him (and I am no fan).
    Agree on all this. I’m crying out for dispassionate media coverage with serious expert commentary. I searched TV and radio today and was very disappointed throughout (BBC TV, Sky, R4, R5).

    Will give Newsnight a blast tonight, more in hope than expectation.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    RobD said:

    My point on food supplies is simple. The government is going to have to start locking chunks of the UK down. If it wants to keep people from really panicking it might want to consider how food will appear on shelves in such circumstances.

    And with respect, a minister having a PR meeting that produces no ideas of substance is not working a plan.

    At least you've backtracked from your claim that there have been no meetings at all. That's a start.
    I missed the meeting that moved nothing onwards. None of the points I made have been answered. Tesco getting permission to deliver stuff to store overnight is exactly my point.

    When it's lockdown who will drive these trucks. Who will load these trucks. Who will shift the stuff from warehouses to the trucks. Who will make the stuff on these trucks. Who will ship the stuff from suppliers to manufacturers etc etc etc.

    There is no "well-established contingency plan". Supermarkets LAST WEEK were asking about disruption of stuff from China as if that matters now. They request our support in making more to supply more stuff faster. Great. How?
    Perhaps they are discussing these things, and you aren't as well informed or connected as you seem to think?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Jonathan said:

    .

    Jonathan said:

    This is going back a bit. Who was the poster on PB who had a conspiracy theory website? Tried to put my finger on it, but can’t remember. Imagine he’s having a field day at the moment.

    Wasn't it something like Tap?
    It was, thanks! I got confused with Tabman and thought it was “the tab“. So close. That was driving me crazy.
    Hunchman did his fair share of shifts too.
    The good old days when we used to chuckle of the great conspiracy of 788-790 Finchley Road.
    More innocent days.
  • I am unconcerned about the risk to my health. I am concerned about the risk to our financial health as Covid-19 rapidly snowballs into large parts of the developed world locking themselves down.

    A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.

    If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.

    Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.

    Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10

    Nonsense. The supermarkets were talking to government today and this is not Boris, this is his medical experts who with respect will know more than yourself

    Indeed, outside of the idiotic Trump most countries are acting on medical advise
    Good news if that's finally happening. It absolutely hadn't happened at the weekend when cretin minsters briefed that it had. Believe me I'm on The Grocer multiple times a day. If it's happening they are reporting it.

    As for medical advice, Italy shuts down travel because risk of spread, the UK let's people slipping out of quarantine zones to wander in unchecked. Doesn't seem like medical advice, more political expediency.

    Unless our CMO and his Italian counterpart have a radical different understanding of how the virus spreads...?
    I agree that it had not happened over the weekend but it was reported today by the media

    I do accept that this is not an easy crisis to manage but with Italy closing it borders tonight further measures will have to be put in place
    It happened last Friday according to the Supermarket Executives. They were bemoaning the fact that Hancock had claimed there had been meetings earlier in the week but were pleased they happened on Friday. The claim that "It absolutely hadn't happened at the weekend" is at best inaccurate and at worst purposefully misleading.
    Minister Eustace says "“Our retailers have well-established contingency plans in place and are taking all the necessary steps to ensure consumers have the food and supplies they need. I will continue to work closely with them over the coming days and weeks on this.”

    Mr Tyndall would you like to tell everyone what these well established contingency plans are...?
    I have no idea, nor is it my job to know.

    But clearly the claim you made that the meeting did not take place was not correct and the fact you are still making that claim makes it look like an outright lie designed to undermine the Government.

    Would you like to tell everyone why you lied?
    Bravo. That's the key point
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:

    JonathanD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

    I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
    I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

    Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
    Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

    This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

    Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

    The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

    I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
    I presume HMG is right now setting up dozens of new ICUs??

    I imagine recruiting the right staff is harder...
    I assume they’ve got military field hospitals on standby, to provide cover where required.

    Contingency plans for Civ and Mil medics will involve calling up the recently retired or resigned.
    There was a great article reported in the Guardian on that the other day reporting responses from recently retired medics and nurses.

    There wasn't much 'your country needs you!' spirit therein more like 'on yer bike sunshine'.
    What a grateful attitude from the caring professionals.

    Civil Contingencies Act it is then, let’s hope they enjoy conscription.
    This attitude is generally a response to the under-funding of the NHS over most of the last decade, and the sense of their needs having been ignored. Medical education is in crisis, for instance - many teaching hospitals have unprecedentedly given up on the crucial training grand rounds because of staff pressures, according to a close relative of mine in the NHS.
    I’m sure that, when presented with a genuine medical crisis, most would step up irrespective of how much they dislike the system.

    Many of them will be in receipt of substantial pensions, and many more will have abandoned their careers for family reasons well before they’ve paid their debt to those who trained them.

    If push comes to shove, the government will have them kidnapped, so the choice they will have is to do it either voluntarily or involuntarily!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Flights will continue to land and trains continue to run.

    Not sure our Italian friends have really grasped the concept of a lockdown.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,403

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:

    JonathanD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

    I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
    I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

    Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
    Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

    This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

    Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

    The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

    I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
    I presume HMG is right now setting up dozens of new ICUs??

    I imagine recruiting the right staff is harder...
    I assume they’ve got military field hospitals on standby, to provide cover where required.

    Contingency plans for Civ and Mil medics will involve calling up the recently retired or resigned.
    There was a great article reported in the Guardian on that the other day reporting responses from recently retired medics and nurses.

    There wasn't much 'your country needs you!' spirit therein more like 'on yer bike sunshine'.
    What a grateful attitude from the caring professionals.

    Civil Contingencies Act it is then, let’s hope they enjoy conscription.
    This attitude is generally a response to the under-funding of the NHS over most of the last decade, and the sense of their needs having been ignored. Medical education is in crisis, for instance - many teaching hospitals have unprecedentedly given up on the crucial training grand rounds because of staff pressures, according to a close relative of mine in the NHS.
    Actually a lot of it might be in response to the fact they retired early because of the stupid policy of stopping pension contributions long before they stopped work but still expecting them to pay in for no return.

    But whatever the gripes you would expect people to have some sort of sense of duty where these sorts of crisis are concerned.

    But I don't think a few responses in the Guardian should be taken as being indicative of the whole, or even a fraction, of the retired medical community.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited March 2020
    Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

    I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

    Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?
  • NEW THREAD

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,403

    I am unconcerned about the risk to my health. I am concerned about the risk to our financial health as Covid-19 rapidly snowballs into large parts of the developed world locking themselves down.

    A word from the food industry - who so far hasn't been consulted by lying ministers about any kind of plans. It's fine saying work from home when that gets here. It's fine saying cut down on travel when that gets here. It's fine saying "stop panic buying Hummus" already. But sales are up across the board on everything. Orders have tripled overnight on some of our lines which aren't exactly as core as dried pasta and bog rolls.

    If you want stuff in the supermarkets to panic buy that means stuff imported from Europe and elsewhere. That means stuff processed and packed and transported and manufactured and transported and shipped and put on shelf.

    Millions of us are literally essential workers and this is before we get Italian style lock downs. With the money markets dropping through the floor and "go home" advice it won't be long before companies get into big trouble. And that means no things to buy in Waitrose.

    Does this government have any clue what it's doing? Does it bollocks. People have been able to walk on all day from Italy without a glance. An egregious dereliction of duty from Number 10

    Nonsense. The supermarkets were talking to government today and this is not Boris, this is his medical experts who with respect will know more than yourself

    Indeed, outside of the idiotic Trump most countries are acting on medical advise
    Good news if that's finally happening. It absolutely hadn't happened at the weekend when cretin minsters briefed that it had. Believe me I'm on The Grocer multiple times a day. If it's happening they are reporting it.

    As for medical advice, Italy shuts down travel because risk of spread, the UK let's people slipping out of quarantine zones to wander in unchecked. Doesn't seem like medical advice, more political expediency.

    Unless our CMO and his Italian counterpart have a radical different understanding of how the virus spreads...?
    I agree that it had not happened over the weekend but it was reported today by the media

    I do accept that this is not an easy crisis to manage but with Italy closing it borders tonight further measures will have to be put in place
    It happened last Friday according to the Supermarket Executives. They were bemoaning the fact that Hancock had claimed there had been meetings earlier in the week but were pleased they happened on Friday. The claim that "It absolutely hadn't happened at the weekend" is at best inaccurate and at worst purposefully misleading.
    Minister Eustace says "“Our retailers have well-established contingency plans in place and are taking all the necessary steps to ensure consumers have the food and supplies they need. I will continue to work closely with them over the coming days and weeks on this.”

    Mr Tyndall would you like to tell everyone what these well established contingency plans are...?
    I have no idea, nor is it my job to know.

    But clearly the claim you made that the meeting did not take place was not correct and the fact you are still making that claim makes it look like an outright lie designed to undermine the Government.

    Would you like to tell everyone why you lied?
    Bravo. That's the key point
    Since it was the point I originally picked you up on, in this exchange, yes it is.

    Still not willing to admit you were making stuff up for political point scoring?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Charles said:

    That's totally correct for lockdowns in people's homes - never leaving the door.

    But pray tell, why would I get fatigue working from home thereby being able to avoid having to get on a train surrounded by coughers? Answer: I won't.

    I just want some recommendation from government so I can start organising my meetings from home. Unfortunately I have to wait for widespread transmission for me to get that reassurance.

    Likewise those with tickets to Italy needed advice from the government NOT to travel, thereby allowing them to get a refund on their tickets. But the advice has been slow in coming.

    It is nonsensical and too much all-or-nothing.

    You don't need government advice to work from home. If you're capable of doing so then do so. Its between you and your employer not the government. Many people aren't capable of working from home.
    You don't think some sort of official advice will be helpful to people in his position then?
    Exactly we need the government to say it because otherwise most employers simply won't want to start implementing those measures. We are still not allowed to work from home and it is already far worse in France than the UK so far. Too many senior people in denial. Lions led by ostriches as it were.

    While it's true that many can't work from home, even for those that must go into work it is an advantage for others to stay home, fewer people around means less risk of spreading it.
    Well this is it. I already work at home 4 days a week, so it would barely make a difference to me. But some people work for backward employers who don’t allow it unless they are told to do it. It is this group for whom government advice would be very useful.

    You point about reducing total numbers by asking those who have the facility to do so to wfh is spot on of course.
    We have explicitly not made that request. Guidance has been once people start WFH they will be there for the duration
    Not sure I understand your post. Have you offered your employees the option of WFH or do you already offer it?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

    I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

    Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

    The media should be the last to know, right before us.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509

    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:

    JonathanD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it just me, or does Boris look worried?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781

    I am sure he is but so far he is doing fine, especially sharing his platform with 2 experts
    I agree. And actually I think the 'phased' approach (only today the advice on handshakes, next week potentially the staying at home if you're sniffly) is purposeful and clever.

    Testing process and turnaround should be on a war production footing.
    Extraordinary that after several months of notice the UK is only able to test at a rate of a 1000 a day and even at that low rate has a delay of 4 days in getting results out.

    This is surely a basic bit of contingency planning that has gone wrong

    Capacity constraints in diagnostics.

    The serious trouble will be the ICU beds.

    I fear our diagnostics are in better shape than our ICU capacity.
    I presume HMG is right now setting up dozens of new ICUs??

    I imagine recruiting the right staff is harder...
    I assume they’ve got military field hospitals on standby, to provide cover where required.

    Contingency plans for Civ and Mil medics will involve calling up the recently retired or resigned.
    There was a great article reported in the Guardian on that the other day reporting responses from recently retired medics and nurses.

    There wasn't much 'your country needs you!' spirit therein more like 'on yer bike sunshine'.
    I think there will be plenty of retired medics who will get involved if asked - most after all went into their profession with a public service ethos.

    Of course it won't be hard for any paper to find a few of the "on yer bike" persuasion to quote.
    I found some of the press approach to the PM press conference really poor and uncomfortable. They used it to try and score silly political points as if it was normal times, and questioning the experts, constantly claiming what about Italy, what about...

    What we need at the moment is for the press to trust the experts and help amplify the messages.

    We also had a blue check mark journo spreading a heavily edited clip of Boris, taking his words out of context, again to try and make him look bad.

    This is a war. This isn't about trying to slam Bonking Boris because of Brexit or whatever you don't like about him (and I am no fan).
    Most of the Lobby have never lived through a genuine crisis before, that’s the problem.

    Twitter hasn’t, either.

    ALL the front pages tomorrow need to be cleared for the government message, exactly as it’s written.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,556

    RobD said:

    My point on food supplies is simple. The government is going to have to start locking chunks of the UK down. If it wants to keep people from really panicking it might want to consider how food will appear on shelves in such circumstances.

    And with respect, a minister having a PR meeting that produces no ideas of substance is not working a plan.

    At least you've backtracked from your claim that there have been no meetings at all. That's a start.
    I missed the meeting that moved nothing onwards. None of the points I made have been answered. Tesco getting permission to deliver stuff to store overnight is exactly my point.

    When it's lockdown who will drive these trucks. Who will load these trucks. Who will shift the stuff from warehouses to the trucks. Who will make the stuff on these trucks. Who will ship the stuff from suppliers to manufacturers etc etc etc.

    There is no "well-established contingency plan". Supermarkets LAST WEEK were asking about disruption of stuff from China as if that matters now. They request our support in making more to supply more stuff faster. Great. How?
    Why do you assume there will be that sort of lockdown ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,764
    Jonathan said:

    Right, my mother in law just rang to ask if I would like her to order us extra loo roll. I am not sure I handled the conversation well. Not really prepared for that.

    "Is there a good recipe for cooking toilet roll?"
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    My point on food supplies is simple. The government is going to have to start locking chunks of the UK down. If it wants to keep people from really panicking it might want to consider how food will appear on shelves in such circumstances.

    And with respect, a minister having a PR meeting that produces no ideas of substance is not working a plan.

    At least you've backtracked from your claim that there have been no meetings at all. That's a start.
    I missed the meeting that moved nothing onwards. None of the points I made have been answered. Tesco getting permission to deliver stuff to store overnight is exactly my point.

    When it's lockdown who will drive these trucks. Who will load these trucks. Who will shift the stuff from warehouses to the trucks. Who will make the stuff on these trucks. Who will ship the stuff from suppliers to manufacturers etc etc etc.

    There is no "well-established contingency plan". Supermarkets LAST WEEK were asking about disruption of stuff from China as if that matters now. They request our support in making more to supply more stuff faster. Great. How?
    Perhaps they are discussing these things, and you aren't as well informed or connected as you seem to think?
    They're certainly discussing. His point seems to be that 'discussions' have so far not lead to the 'workable plans' which the Government have nonetheless already announced to be in place, at the 'suppliers'.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509

    Sandpit said:

    Interesting one - phone companies in India are playing an automated public health announcement at the start of all calls:

    https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/08/telecom-operators-in-india-warn-people-of-coronavirus-outbreak-share-tips/

    47 cases in India
    16 in Pakistan
    3 in Bangladesh
    1 in Nepal
    1 in Sri Lanka
    4 in Maldives
    India, the next Iran. Discuss.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    TGOHF666 said:
    Am I the only one who has a whole list of things which I used to think where very important and no longer can be bothered to read about? Andrew is certainly on the list.
    'Prince Andrew has now completely closed the door'?

    At least somebody's taking self-isolation seriously...
    To be fair to him I wouldn’t voluntarily travel to NYC right now, especially as his parents are in their 90s
This discussion has been closed.