I do not see how second-guessing the government on its management of the crisis is helpful right now. We have to trust they’re getting it right. This is not the time for point-scoring.
The Fake News Boris clip is now trending on twitter. This is massively irresponsible.
It is. We need to trust the government on this. If we don’t it can only make matters worse. I think that the people advising UK politicians know what they’re talking about and I cannot imagine our politicians would try to second guess them.
Also, despite not trusting Boris in general i.e. he normally looks through the lens of what is best for him, in this particular extreme case there is no way he isn't listening and simply following their advice. Trump on the other hand...
Trump has deep, deep issues that have turned him into a narcissist incapable of seeing anything outside of what he perceives to be his own very narrow interests. He has no affection for or loyalty to the US or to the American people. Johnson is a lot of things, but he is not that. Trump is almost uniquely unsuited to be running the US at a time like this.
His response to the Cruise ship was very telling. "I like the numbers the way they are, why should I add to my numbers"....
I mean it is one thing talking about some sort of financial deal in those terms, but these are humans.
That comment struck home with me also. It was like keeping score and making sure you got the best result for yourself and just yourself. Sod anyone else.
Treating people's lives like the number of home runs for the Boston Red Sox
CDC to cut by 80 percent efforts to prevent global disease outbreak https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/02/01/cdc-to-cut-by-80-percent-efforts-to-prevent-global-disease-outbreak/ Countries where the CDC is planning to scale back include some of the world’s hot spots for emerging infectious disease, such as China, Pakistan, Haiti, Rwanda and Congo. Last year, when Congo experienced a potentially deadly Ebola outbreak in a remote, forested area, CDC-trained disease detectives and rapid responders helped contain it quickly....
But the saving probably funded the purchase of some extra tanks and missiles and soldiers to assist in the pulling back from foreign military involvements. To govern is to choose.
I would certainly lock down the oldies ASAP. For a 70 year old retiree who spends their days between the golf club, out to restaurants and seeing the grandkids to continue to do this is highly risky.
I know a lot of grand parents do childcare, but we can't have that continuing either.
We have just picked up two of our grandchildren and I am about to make their tea before their Dad/Mum picks them up
If I was the government, I would say the regulations on "numbers of kids per child minder" are out the window, and the government will pay for all kids like your grand children to go to a child minder / after school club etc.
I do not see how second-guessing the government on its management of the crisis is helpful right now. We have to trust they’re getting it right. This is not the time for point-scoring.
The Fake News Boris clip is now trending on twitter. This is massively irresponsible.
It is. We need to trust the government on this. If we don’t it can only make matters worse. I think that the people advising UK politicians know what they’re talking about and I cannot imagine our politicians would try to second guess them.
Also, despite not trusting Boris in general i.e. he normally looks through the lens of what is best for him, in this particular extreme case there is no way he isn't listening and simply following their advice. Trump on the other hand...
Trump has deep, deep issues that have turned him into a narcissist incapable of seeing anything outside of what he perceives to be his own very narrow interests. He has no affection for or loyalty to the US or to the American people. Johnson is a lot of things, but he is not that. Trump is almost uniquely unsuited to be running the US at a time like this.
Henrietta's model is no longer working, and all three versions are too pessimistic.
Her most hopeful model, Model G, predicted that there would be 39,000 cases outside China by March 9. Instead there are 31,000. That's a big difference.
If I had to hazard a guess why, I'd say it is because the Asians have done an unexpectedly good job of containing it: in Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Because we certainly aren't containing it in Western Europe or the USA.
We need to copy the Asians. Now.
Might it possibly instead be that the models were complete nonsense in the first place as pointed out by many people on here who teach or work in statistics and risk on a daily basis?
Henrietta's models are never wrong because she recalibrates them every time some more data comes in. ;-)
That's totally correct for lockdowns in people's homes - never leaving the door.
But pray tell, why would I get fatigue working from home thereby being able to avoid having to get on a train surrounded by coughers? Answer: I won't.
I just want some recommendation from government so I can start organising my meetings from home. Unfortunately I have to wait for widespread transmission for me to get that reassurance.
Likewise those with tickets to Italy needed advice from the government NOT to travel, thereby allowing them to get a refund on their tickets. But the advice has been slow in coming.
It is nonsensical and too much all-or-nothing.
Matt Hancock's statement in the HoC re home working was very jumbled. Pretty much "people need to judge for themselves" - but in many cases employers make the decision not workers, and they may be waiting the advice...
Encouraging working from home may be premature but is at least low-cost compared to eg shutting schools or banning gatherings, so of all the social-distancing measures probably ought to be first-up.
Government advice on travel has been weak (again, "make your own mind up" but not giving much information to base that decision on) and the failure to convey eg self-isolation recommendations to returning travellers at airports is really poor.
I do not see how second-guessing the government on its management of the crisis is helpful right now. We have to trust they’re getting it right. This is not the time for point-scoring.
The Fake News Boris clip is now trending on twitter. This is massively irresponsible.
It is. We need to trust the government on this. If we don’t it can only make matters worse. I think that the people advising UK politicians know what they’re talking about and I cannot imagine our politicians would try to second guess them.
Also, despite not trusting Boris in general i.e. he normally looks through the lens of what is best for him, in this particular extreme case there is no way he isn't listening and simply following their advice. Trump on the other hand...
Trump has deep, deep issues that have turned him into a narcissist incapable of seeing anything outside of what he perceives to be his own very narrow interests. He has no affection for or loyalty to the US or to the American people. Johnson is a lot of things, but he is not that. Trump is almost uniquely unsuited to be running the US at a time like this.
His response to the Cruise ship was very telling. "I like the numbers the way they are, why should I add to my numbers"....
I mean it is one thing talking about some sort of financial deal in those terms, but these are humans.
You can't fault him for a lack of transparency. He says and tweets out loud every self-centred machination that enters his brain.
I do not see how second-guessing the government on its management of the crisis is helpful right now. We have to trust they’re getting it right. This is not the time for point-scoring.
The Fake News Boris clip is now trending on twitter. This is massively irresponsible.
It is. We need to trust the government on this. If we don’t it can only make matters worse. I think that the people advising UK politicians know what they’re talking about and I cannot imagine our politicians would try to second guess them.
Also, despite not trusting Boris in general i.e. he normally looks through the lens of what is best for him, in this particular extreme case there is no way he isn't listening and simply following their advice. Trump on the other hand...
Trump has deep, deep issues that have turned him into a narcissist incapable of seeing anything outside of what he perceives to be his own very narrow interests. He has no affection for or loyalty to the US or to the American people. Johnson is a lot of things, but he is not that. Trump is almost uniquely unsuited to be running the US at a time like this.
His response to the Cruise ship was very telling. "I like the numbers the way they are, why should I add to my numbers"....
I mean it is one thing talking about some sort of financial deal in those terms, but these are humans.
That comment struck home with me also. It was like keeping score and making sure you got the best result for yourself and just yourself. Sod anyone else.
It has always been a game to him. Everything has always been a game to him. That why 'winning' matters so much.
That's totally correct for lockdowns in people's homes - never leaving the door.
But pray tell, why would I get fatigue working from home thereby being able to avoid having to get on a train surrounded by coughers? Answer: I won't.
I just want some recommendation from government so I can start organising my meetings from home. Unfortunately I have to wait for widespread transmission for me to get that reassurance.
Likewise those with tickets to Italy needed advice from the government NOT to travel, thereby allowing them to get a refund on their tickets. But the advice has been slow in coming.
It is nonsensical and too much all-or-nothing.
Matt Hancock's statement in the HoC re home working was very jumbled. Pretty much "people need to judge for themselves" - but in many cases employers make the decision not workers, and they may be waiting the advice...
Encouraging working from home may be premature but is at least low-cost compared to eg shutting schools or banning gatherings, so of all the social-distancing measures probably ought to be first-up.
Government advice on travel has been weak (again, "make your own mind up" but not giving much information to base that decision on) and the failure to convey eg self-isolation recommendations to returning travellers at airports is really poor.
I do not see how second-guessing the government on its management of the crisis is helpful right now. We have to trust they’re getting it right. This is not the time for point-scoring.
The Fake News Boris clip is now trending on twitter. This is massively irresponsible.
It is. We need to trust the government on this. If we don’t it can only make matters worse. I think that the people advising UK politicians know what they’re talking about and I cannot imagine our politicians would try to second guess them.
I wish I could be as sanguine here in Spain where today´s figures are awful. True not where I live but I would certainly be considering travel restrictions to the costas from the north as Easter approaches. Otherwise the whole country could easily be inundated rapidly. The area I live contains a lot of holiday homes and the populations swell noticeably at holiday times.
The problem in Spain are the layers of national, regional and local responsibilities. They all have to be untied before concerted country-wide action can be taken. At a time like this you have to have central coordination.
This to a certain extent is a similar problem in Germany, because "health is a state matter". There is a national ministry of health, but they can only advise the states, and there is little coordination between hospitals. However the testing and recording of cases is being coordinated by a central organisation the Robert Koch Institute, which is about 1Km away from where I live.
Henrietta's model is no longer working, and all three versions are too pessimistic.
Her most hopeful model, Model G, predicted that there would be 39,000 cases outside China by March 9. Instead there are 31,000. That's a big difference.
If I had to hazard a guess why, I'd say it is because the Asians have done an unexpectedly good job of containing it: in Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Because we certainly aren't containing it in Western Europe or the USA.
We need to copy the Asians. Now.
Might it possibly instead be that the models were complete nonsense in the first place as pointed out by many people on here who teach or work in statistics and risk on a daily basis?
Yep. It was always obvious she was wasting her time and ours.
I jotted down her predictions:
In two weeks four days' time (from today) - a million cases worldwide In four weeks three days' time - ten million In six weeks two days - a hundred million In eight weeks three days - a billion cases
I do not see how second-guessing the government on its management of the crisis is helpful right now. We have to trust they’re getting it right. This is not the time for point-scoring.
The Fake News Boris clip is now trending on twitter. This is massively irresponsible.
It is. We need to trust the government on this. If we don’t it can only make matters worse. I think that the people advising UK politicians know what they’re talking about and I cannot imagine our politicians would try to second guess them.
Also, despite not trusting Boris in general i.e. he normally looks through the lens of what is best for him, in this particular extreme case there is no way he isn't listening and simply following their advice. Trump on the other hand...
Boris has enough self-awareness to understand that on issues like this, managing the crisis well *is* in his own interests, as well as the country's.
I would certainly lock down the oldies ASAP. For a 70 year old retiree who spends their days between the golf club, out to restaurants and seeing the grandkids to continue to do this is highly risky.
I know a lot of grand parents do childcare, but we can't have that continuing either.
We have just picked up two of our grandchildren and I am about to make their tea before their Dad/Mum picks them up
If I was the government, I would say the regulations on "numbers of kids per child minder" are out the window, and the government will pay for all kids like your grand children to go to a child minder / after school club etc.
We need to wait and see and on this crisis I trust the medics advising the government and am content with Boris and Matt Hancock
To be honest I now ignore the more extreme posters who are predicting armageddon and have no professional insight or qualifications in this complex field
At the same time Trump is emblematic of the USA's lack of internal balance, intellectually, psychologically, and socially since the Reagan years.
With all his issues, his celebrity persona was the single most recognisable face of 1980s American capitalism. Particularly on the east coast, he was essentially *the* marketed business face of the 80's.
For years he was beamed every week into everyone's homes on American prime time TV - "The Apprentice" - as a tough and colourful "can do" sort of guy with a GSOH. That is great PR.
Henrietta's model is no longer working, and all three versions are too pessimistic.
Her most hopeful model, Model G, predicted that there would be 39,000 cases outside China by March 9. Instead there are 31,000. That's a big difference.
If I had to hazard a guess why, I'd say it is because the Asians have done an unexpectedly good job of containing it: in Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Because we certainly aren't containing it in Western Europe or the USA.
We need to copy the Asians. Now.
Might it possibly instead be that the models were complete nonsense in the first place as pointed out by many people on here who teach or work in statistics and risk on a daily basis?
Henrietta's models are never wrong because she recalibrates them every time some more data comes in. ;-)
Recalibrating a model as more data becomes available is exactly the right thing to do.
I do not see how second-guessing the government on its management of the crisis is helpful right now. We have to trust they’re getting it right. This is not the time for point-scoring.
Agree with you on not point scoring at this time. I also think whatever policy has to be allowed to work. I think the video clip does have a usefulness in highlighting that the choice isn't between heavy handed intervention and no intervention. There is a spectrum of intervention and the choice of what to do when is ultimately a political choice. The buck stops with Johnson.
I don't have a lot of confidence in the UK government implementing policy for effective intervention compared with some of the Asian countries that have been through this with SARS. That's what's worrying me. I would be a lot more comfortable with a set of processes that people need to follow with a clearly understood objective of containing, delaying or mitigating the epidemic, and where those processes are clearly stated and monitored. Just saying we need to wash our hands a lot doesn't seem adequate for the task.
Henrietta's model is no longer working, and all three versions are too pessimistic.
Her most hopeful model, Model G, predicted that there would be 39,000 cases outside China by March 9. Instead there are 31,000. That's a big difference.
If I had to hazard a guess why, I'd say it is because the Asians have done an unexpectedly good job of containing it: in Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Because we certainly aren't containing it in Western Europe or the USA.
We need to copy the Asians. Now.
Might it possibly instead be that the models were complete nonsense in the first place as pointed out by many people on here who teach or work in statistics and risk on a daily basis?
Henrietta's models are never wrong because she recalibrates them every time some more data comes in. ;-)
Recalibrating a model as more data becomes available is exactly the right thing to do.
Henrietta's model is no longer working, and all three versions are too pessimistic.
Her most hopeful model, Model G, predicted that there would be 39,000 cases outside China by March 9. Instead there are 31,000. That's a big difference.
If I had to hazard a guess why, I'd say it is because the Asians have done an unexpectedly good job of containing it: in Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Because we certainly aren't containing it in Western Europe or the USA.
We need to copy the Asians. Now.
Might it possibly instead be that the models were complete nonsense in the first place as pointed out by many people on here who teach or work in statistics and risk on a daily basis?
Henrietta's models are never wrong because she recalibrates them every time some more data comes in. ;-)
Recalibrating a model as more data becomes available is exactly the right thing to do.
It wasn't a model. It was a line fitted to match some dots.
I do not see how second-guessing the government on its management of the crisis is helpful right now. We have to trust they’re getting it right. This is not the time for point-scoring.
The Fake News Boris clip is now trending on twitter. This is massively irresponsible.
It is. We need to trust the government on this. If we don’t it can only make matters worse. I think that the people advising UK politicians know what they’re talking about and I cannot imagine our politicians would try to second guess them.
Also, despite not trusting Boris in general i.e. he normally looks through the lens of what is best for him, in this particular extreme case there is no way he isn't listening and simply following their advice. Trump on the other hand...
Trump has deep, deep issues that have turned him into a narcissist incapable of seeing anything outside of what he perceives to be his own very narrow interests. He has no affection for or loyalty to the US or to the American people. Johnson is a lot of things, but he is not that. Trump is almost uniquely unsuited to be running the US at a time like this.
Trump has affection and loyalty to *his version* of the USA, which is not at all grouded in reality
The Americans really really hate "losers". And conversely, really really love "winners". It's probably at least partially why the Iowa and NH races were always so important.
Although not as important this year than we were repeatedly told they were!
Well the US does also love losers who become winners.
South Carolina Democrats are apparently the exception to the rule; else they don't much care for what their Iowa and New Hampshire counterparts think.
Either way, it seems that the rest of he country is fine with anyone who can win one of those three.
Salmond trial - 1 alleged incident Salmond has claimed an alibi, 3 further he has claimed consent. I am not an expert, but that seems like he's on a very sticky wicket - perhaps one of PB's legal beagles could opine.
You really are NOT an expert and I presume any legal beagle will have the sense not to opine given the restrictions.
That comment struck home with me also. It was like keeping score and making sure you got the best result for yourself and just yourself. Sod anyone else.
It was an absolute disgrace. And very telling. It's hard to believe there is anybody left in America with a braincell and a moral compass who can even consider voting for him in November. The bad news is there is. But the good news is that by then there will not be nearly enough of them to re-elect him. IMO he was toast anyway but to the extent that Corona makes that more certain, well, every cloud.
At the same time Trump is emblematic of the USA's lack of internal balance, intellectually, psychologically, and socially since the Reagan years.
With all his issues, his celebrity persona was the single most recognisable face of 1980s American capitalism. Particularly on the east coast, he was essentially *the* marketed business face of the 80's.
For years he was beamed every week into everyone's homes on American prime time TV - "The Apprentice" - as a tough and colourful "can do" sort of guy with a GSOH. That is great PR.
Yes. The "Apprentice's" delusion of macho boss culture is also very influential here. And before that, his photos were a staple of almost every American consumer magazine in the 1980s and 1990's ; a brazenly, laughingly, almost cartoonishly arrogant style that was considered the business zeitgeist.
I do not see how second-guessing the government on its management of the crisis is helpful right now. We have to trust they’re getting it right. This is not the time for point-scoring.
The Fake News Boris clip is now trending on twitter. This is massively irresponsible.
It is. We need to trust the government on this. If we don’t it can only make matters worse. I think that the people advising UK politicians know what they’re talking about and I cannot imagine our politicians would try to second guess them.
Also, despite not trusting Boris in general i.e. he normally looks through the lens of what is best for him, in this particular extreme case there is no way he isn't listening and simply following their advice. Trump on the other hand...
Trump has deep, deep issues that have turned him into a narcissist incapable of seeing anything outside of what he perceives to be his own very narrow interests. He has no affection for or loyalty to the US or to the American people. Johnson is a lot of things, but he is not that. Trump is almost uniquely unsuited to be running the US at a time like this.
Trump has affection and loyalty to *his version* of the USA, which is not at all grouded in reality
In my view he only feels affection and loyalty to his version of himself - the buccaneering, successful businessman and statesman - which is not at all grounded in reality.
Henrietta's model is no longer working, and all three versions are too pessimistic.
Her most hopeful model, Model G, predicted that there would be 39,000 cases outside China by March 9. Instead there are 31,000. That's a big difference.
If I had to hazard a guess why, I'd say it is because the Asians have done an unexpectedly good job of containing it: in Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Because we certainly aren't containing it in Western Europe or the USA.
We need to copy the Asians. Now.
It's because the models were all overfit to the data, and had absolutely none of the judgment they desperately needed overlaid in order to account for differences in testing practices, transmission vectors, reporting habits, etc.
That they no longer work, tells us precisely nothing
I do not see how second-guessing the government on its management of the crisis is helpful right now. We have to trust they’re getting it right. This is not the time for point-scoring.
Agree with you on not point scoring at this time. I also think whatever policy has to be allowed to work. I think the video clip does have a usefulness in highlighting that the choice isn't between heavy handed intervention and no intervention. There is a spectrum of intervention and the choice of what to do when is ultimately a political choice. The buck stops with Johnson.
I don't have a lot of confidence in the UK government implementing policy for effective intervention compared with some of the Asian countries that have been through this with SARS. That's what's worrying me. I would be a lot more comfortable with a set of processes that people need to follow with a clearly understood objective of containing, delaying or mitigating the epidemic, and where those processes are clearly stated and monitored. Just saying we need to wash our hands a lot doesn't seem adequate for the task.
IMO the balance between "take it seriously" and "don't panic" is very difficult to achieve in circumstances like this. Much easier with hindsight.
Most surprising to me is that there seem to be few cases in the London boroughs. You'd have thought that, with the number of visitors and general travel, London would be a real hotspot.
There is something rather odd about the way this virus spreads: it seems extremely contagious in the conditions of conferences and also patient-doctor transmission, and at things like funerals, but (as far as one can tell from the UK tracking) not so much on public transport, shopping or other places which you might have expected would be very significant.
Well, the most obvious thought is this as a key vector: Universal at conferences, similar thing at funerals, rather rare on public transport. (patient-doctor transmission separate, of course, but you can see why that could be on the cards)
Most surprising to me is that there seem to be few cases in the London boroughs. You'd have thought that, with the number of visitors and general travel, London would be a real hotspot.
There is something rather odd about the way this virus spreads: it seems extremely contagious in the conditions of conferences and also patient-doctor transmission, and at things like funerals, but (as far as one can tell from the UK tracking) not so much on public transport, shopping or other places which you might have expected would be very significant.
Well, the most obvious thought is this as a key vector: Universal at conferences, similar thing at funerals, rather rare on public transport. (patient-doctor transmission separate, of course, but you can see why that could be on the cards)
I wonder again about places like Italy / Spain, the old tapas culture.
The point is the UK has made the decision to leave and be independent, in fact and not just in name. The point is the UK government is telling businesses NOW to prepare and not in 10 months time with just a few weeks notice. The point is that the government is being clear and transparent with the ambitions and not seeking a "cake and eat it" approach much bemoaned (and rejected by the EU) under May. The point is that we are diverging.
In other words, you are saying the ignoring the most basic of realities is smart. It's a view, as they say, but I accept that you are right that the government is being consistent in its lunacy.
It isn't ignoring realities, it is accepting realities and moving on with them.
The government has made it clear they want a Canada-style deal, the EU is making it clear if we want closer than Canada it will come with extra provisions we don't want so the government is saying "OK, no closer than Canada then". They're systematically removing all the excuses for the EU to mess us around and accepting what reality means. If that means extra paperwork we aren't seeking to avoid that, we are seeking to accept that.
Now if the EU wants to avoid that paperwork, if they think its not necessary and costly, they of course can approach us and suggest to us are we willing to compromise on this and do away with the paperwork? At which point the negotiations would be different, what are the EU prepared to offer to remove that, rather than what are we prepared to offer. If they're prepared to offer no paperwork with no strings attached then I'm sure we can compromise on that if they suggest it.
That's totally correct for lockdowns in people's homes - never leaving the door.
But pray tell, why would I get fatigue working from home thereby being able to avoid having to get on a train surrounded by coughers? Answer: I won't.
I just want some recommendation from government so I can start organising my meetings from home. Unfortunately I have to wait for widespread transmission for me to get that reassurance.
Likewise those with tickets to Italy needed advice from the government NOT to travel, thereby allowing them to get a refund on their tickets. But the advice has been slow in coming.
It is nonsensical and too much all-or-nothing.
I find the government's attitude worrying, too.
Taiwan has a population of 24 million. Their first case was way back in January 21. If their case numbers had grown exponentially, as is happening in Europe, they would now have thousands of afflicted and a disaster on their hands.
Instead, they have 45 cases. Just 45. And not a new case reported for 3 days. They are beating it.
And they did this with drastic early measures: screening incomers, sanitisers everywhere, closing events, travel bans, etc.
Yes there appears to be an underlying fatalism about the approach. We can't stop it so we won't try.. the costs will be too much. The evidence suggests you can control it without necessarily welding people into houses. So why don't we try a bit harder now?
The trade-off between health and social costs is ultimately a value-based decision. Saying it will be informed by 'science' pretends none of these trade-offs are actually the preferences of the decision-makers in the room.
Ends with TP answering “You might say that, I couldn’t possibly comment”, a phrase I had only ever heard before on here
In case you did not already know, it comes from the British version of House of Cards, where it was often said by Francis Urquhart (now a pb poster) to his pet journalist. The book was written by Michael Dobbs, who had been a SpAd to and Chief of Staff under Margaret Thatcher.
Ah ok thanks, I haven’t seen it.
Well written; well acted; worth a watch. Unfortunately it does not seem to be on iplayer. Note there is also an American version.
Users of low dose coated aspirin may be interested to note three packs (normally 80p each) are on sale at £24.56 on eBay. Good to see the wartime spiv culture is alive and kicking.
Asking for a friend whose father is a retired Doctor.
How much do you think an unused prescription pad would go for on eBay?
Not a lot as they are computer generated now.
My uncle got a prison sentence for stealing, and using a perscription pad. His job was aa salesman working for a pharma company selling their products to pharmacies. He somehow managed to sell on the medicines he got using NHS perscriptions, pocketing the money. I presume either the pharmacy, from which he acquuired or to whom he sold, the tablets was in on it and was taking a cut.
That's totally correct for lockdowns in people's homes - never leaving the door.
But pray tell, why would I get fatigue working from home thereby being able to avoid having to get on a train surrounded by coughers? Answer: I won't.
I just want some recommendation from government so I can start organising my meetings from home. Unfortunately I have to wait for widespread transmission for me to get that reassurance.
Likewise those with tickets to Italy needed advice from the government NOT to travel, thereby allowing them to get a refund on their tickets. But the advice has been slow in coming.
It is nonsensical and too much all-or-nothing.
You don't need government advice to work from home. If you're capable of doing so then do so. Its between you and your employer not the government. Many people aren't capable of working from home.
That's totally correct for lockdowns in people's homes - never leaving the door.
But pray tell, why would I get fatigue working from home thereby being able to avoid having to get on a train surrounded by coughers? Answer: I won't.
I just want some recommendation from government so I can start organising my meetings from home. Unfortunately I have to wait for widespread transmission for me to get that reassurance.
Likewise those with tickets to Italy needed advice from the government NOT to travel, thereby allowing them to get a refund on their tickets. But the advice has been slow in coming.
It is nonsensical and too much all-or-nothing.
You don't need government advice to work from home. If you're capable of doing so then do so. Its between you and your employer not the government. Many people aren't capable of working from home.
Ends with TP answering “You might say that, I couldn’t possibly comment”, a phrase I had only ever heard before on here
In case you did not already know, it comes from the British version of House of Cards, where it was often said by Francis Urquhart (now a pb poster) to his pet journalist. The book was written by Michael Dobbs, who had been a SpAd to and Chief of Staff under Margaret Thatcher.
Ah ok thanks, I haven’t seen it.
Well written; well acted; worth a watch. Unfortunately it does not seem to be on iplayer. Note there is also an American version.
You can rent it from Amazon Video for about £1 an episode
Trump has deep, deep issues that have turned him into a narcissist incapable of seeing anything outside of what he perceives to be his own very narrow interests. He has no affection for or loyalty to the US or to the American people. Johnson is a lot of things, but he is not that. Trump is almost uniquely unsuited to be running the US at a time like this.
The truly pathetic thing is that he feels no sense of honour or privilege in his position as holder of the World's highest elected office. He aspires to be somebody like Putin or MBS. An autocrat. A kleptocrat. A "Strong Man". He's palpably incompetent and palpably corrupt. And a hatemonger. So sad for America and its people. He's laughing at them. He's pissing on them. He has contempt for his "base". He's like the dealer on the estate. It's gas-lighting and mass psychological abuse on a scale not seen in any developed nation since the War, let alone the biggest and richest and most powerful of them. It has to stop. Another 4 years of this is - literally - unthinkable.
Henrietta's model is no longer working, and all three versions are too pessimistic.
Her most hopeful model, Model G, predicted that there would be 39,000 cases outside China by March 9. Instead there are 31,000. That's a big difference.
If I had to hazard a guess why, I'd say it is because the Asians have done an unexpectedly good job of containing it: in Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Because we certainly aren't containing it in Western Europe or the USA.
We need to copy the Asians. Now.
Might it possibly instead be that the models were complete nonsense in the first place as pointed out by many people on here who teach or work in statistics and risk on a daily basis?
Yep. It was always obvious she was wasting her time and ours.
I jotted down her predictions:
In two weeks four days' time (from today) - a million cases worldwide In four weeks three days' time - ten million In six weeks two days - a hundred million In eight weeks three days - a billion cases
Indeed. People think they're clever understanding exponential growth without realising it won't stay exponential growth. "Growth" from low numbers tends to often be meaningless. https://xkcd.com/1102/
I do not see how second-guessing the government on its management of the crisis is helpful right now. We have to trust they’re getting it right. This is not the time for point-scoring.
Agree with you on not point scoring at this time. I also think whatever policy has to be allowed to work. I think the video clip does have a usefulness in highlighting that the choice isn't between heavy handed intervention and no intervention. There is a spectrum of intervention and the choice of what to do when is ultimately a political choice. The buck stops with Johnson.
I don't have a lot of confidence in the UK government implementing policy for effective intervention compared with some of the Asian countries that have been through this with SARS. That's what's worrying me. I would be a lot more comfortable with a set of processes that people need to follow with a clearly understood objective of containing, delaying or mitigating the epidemic, and where those processes are clearly stated and monitored. Just saying we need to wash our hands a lot doesn't seem adequate for the task.
IMO the balance between "take it seriously" and "don't panic" is very difficult to achieve in circumstances like this. Much easier with hindsight.
It's impossible: Some will claim that not going to a football match is panicking and others will claim that anything less than full quarrantine of all people with contact with a positive case is not taking it seriously.
That's totally correct for lockdowns in people's homes - never leaving the door.
But pray tell, why would I get fatigue working from home thereby being able to avoid having to get on a train surrounded by coughers? Answer: I won't.
I just want some recommendation from government so I can start organising my meetings from home. Unfortunately I have to wait for widespread transmission for me to get that reassurance.
Likewise those with tickets to Italy needed advice from the government NOT to travel, thereby allowing them to get a refund on their tickets. But the advice has been slow in coming.
It is nonsensical and too much all-or-nothing.
You don't need government advice to work from home. If you're capable of doing so then do so. Its between you and your employer not the government. Many people aren't capable of working from home.
Most surprising to me is that there seem to be few cases in the London boroughs. You'd have thought that, with the number of visitors and general travel, London would be a real hotspot.
There is something rather odd about the way this virus spreads: it seems extremely contagious in the conditions of conferences and also patient-doctor transmission, and at things like funerals, but (as far as one can tell from the UK tracking) not so much on public transport, shopping or other places which you might have expected would be very significant.
Well, the most obvious thought is this as a key vector: Universal at conferences, similar thing at funerals, rather rare on public transport. (patient-doctor transmission separate, of course, but you can see why that could be on the cards)
Henrietta's model is no longer working, and all three versions are too pessimistic.
Her most hopeful model, Model G, predicted that there would be 39,000 cases outside China by March 9. Instead there are 31,000. That's a big difference.
If I had to hazard a guess why, I'd say it is because the Asians have done an unexpectedly good job of containing it: in Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Because we certainly aren't containing it in Western Europe or the USA.
We need to copy the Asians. Now.
Might it possibly instead be that the models were complete nonsense in the first place as pointed out by many people on here who teach or work in statistics and risk on a daily basis?
Yep. It was always obvious she was wasting her time and ours.
I jotted down her predictions:
In two weeks four days' time (from today) - a million cases worldwide In four weeks three days' time - ten million In six weeks two days - a hundred million In eight weeks three days - a billion cases
Indeed. People think they're clever understanding exponential growth without realising it won't stay exponential growth. "Growth" from low numbers tends to often be meaningless. https://xkcd.com/1102/
She did also fit a logistic model, which is what the prior understanding says is a sensible model. No the problem was extrapolation with out giving any measur of the precision of the models.
I do not see how second-guessing the government on its management of the crisis is helpful right now. We have to trust they’re getting it right. This is not the time for point-scoring.
The Fake News Boris clip is now trending on twitter. This is massively irresponsible.
It is. We need to trust the government on this. If we don’t it can only make matters worse. I think that the people advising UK politicians know what they’re talking about and I cannot imagine our politicians would try to second guess them.
I wish I could be as sanguine here in Spain where today´s figures are awful. True not where I live but I would certainly be considering travel restrictions to the costas from the north as Easter approaches. Otherwise the whole country could easily be inundated rapidly. The area I live contains a lot of holiday homes and the populations swell noticeably at holiday times.
The problem in Spain are the layers of national, regional and local responsibilities. They all have to be untied before concerted country-wide action can be taken. At a time like this you have to have central coordination.
This to a certain extent is a similar problem in Germany, because "health is a state matter". There is a national ministry of health, but they can only advise the states, and there is little coordination between hospitals. However the testing and recording of cases is being coordinated by a central organisation the Robert Koch Institute, which is about 1Km away from where I live.
The RKI is also responsible for issuing guidelines etc for controlling infectious diseases and has proven to be somewhat inadequate, especially in February, with poor guidelines, advice, and too narrow testing criterion. It's nearest equivalent in England is I suppose Public Health England, but Public Health England (which obviously has much wider responsibilities) has an annual budget of 4.5 billion GBP, whereas RKI seems to have around 80 million Euros (for a much larger population).
Doctors here have been dismissive of the RKI to me "It's mostly a bunch of people sitting in offices".
Health is a state matter, but it's even worse as local Gesundsheitsamts, which are a branch of local government, have responsibility in local areas, and as noted, do not coordinate well with hospitals, which are run by various organisations - many by either the Catholic or Evangelical churches. GPs tend to be individual practices, and ambulance services are run by other private organisations - Maltesers, Red Cross, The many University Clinics (=big hospitals) in the big cities are usually the places that should be best equipped to deal with coronavirus cases, but obviously have limited places available.
Towns have set up their own coronavirus hotlines, there is no national coronavirus hotline, although there is a general national phone number which is notoriously difficult to get through to. There are stories of people being given conflicting advice and being sent round in circles.
Press Conference now with the Chief Medical Officer, PM and Chief Science Officer. Hope some of the "shut everything down now" brigade on here tune in and listen to them patiently explaining why its a bad idea and they're not remaining it.
Henrietta's model is no longer working, and all three versions are too pessimistic.
Her most hopeful model, Model G, predicted that there would be 39,000 cases outside China by March 9. Instead there are 31,000. That's a big difference.
If I had to hazard a guess why, I'd say it is because the Asians have done an unexpectedly good job of containing it: in Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Because we certainly aren't containing it in Western Europe or the USA.
We need to copy the Asians. Now.
Might it possibly instead be that the models were complete nonsense in the first place as pointed out by many people on here who teach or work in statistics and risk on a daily basis?
Yep. It was always obvious she was wasting her time and ours.
I jotted down her predictions:
In two weeks four days' time (from today) - a million cases worldwide In four weeks three days' time - ten million In six weeks two days - a hundred million In eight weeks three days - a billion cases
Indeed. People think they're clever understanding exponential growth without realising it won't stay exponential growth. "Growth" from low numbers tends to often be meaningless. https://xkcd.com/1102/
She did also fit a logistic model, which is what the prior understanding says is a sensible model. No the problem was extrapolation with out giving any measur of the precision of the models.
One of the problems.
Another big fail was assuming the world outside of China was a homogeneous block.
An homogeneous block? I digress.
One fairly simple refinement would have been to model Europe, SE Asia, Asia Other, N America and RoW separately.
The point is the UK has made the decision to leave and be independent, in fact and not just in name. The point is the UK government is telling businesses NOW to prepare and not in 10 months time with just a few weeks notice. The point is that the government is being clear and transparent with the ambitions and not seeking a "cake and eat it" approach much bemoaned (and rejected by the EU) under May. The point is that we are diverging.
In other words, you are saying the ignoring the most basic of realities is smart. It's a view, as they say, but I accept that you are right that the government is being consistent in its lunacy.
It isn't ignoring realities, it is accepting realities and moving on with them.
The government has made it clear they want a Canada-style deal, the EU is making it clear if we want closer than Canada it will come with extra provisions we don't want so the government is saying "OK, no closer than Canada then". They're systematically removing all the excuses for the EU to mess us around and accepting what reality means. If that means extra paperwork we aren't seeking to avoid that, we are seeking to accept that.
Now if the EU wants to avoid that paperwork, if they think its not necessary and costly, they of course can approach us and suggest to us are we willing to compromise on this and do away with the paperwork? At which point the negotiations would be different, what are the EU prepared to offer to remove that, rather than what are we prepared to offer. If they're prepared to offer no paperwork with no strings attached then I'm sure we can compromise on that if they suggest it.
The EU will happily accept the paperwork - by making things more difficult to export from the UK international firms are more likely to pick the EU (market 230m) rather than the (UK 60m) when it comes to future investments..
And the thing is that Nissan and co won't be that badly affected but a smaller parts manufacturer / exporter on the other hand....
I'm just about to go to a meeting with someone who is organising a September holiday in Northern Italy for us. Seems a bit surreal!
I think you got the tense wrong there....WAS organising a September holiday.
It seems highly unlikely we will be through this by September unless the summer months really do have a massive effect on the virus.
I have now mentally set in for the next 6 months that normal life will be suspended.
Yep - I have cancelled 2 holidays and the only reason I haven't cancelled the 3rd is I have another 6 weeks before I lose more money - so will wait just in case things work out better than expected.
That's totally correct for lockdowns in people's homes - never leaving the door.
But pray tell, why would I get fatigue working from home thereby being able to avoid having to get on a train surrounded by coughers? Answer: I won't.
I just want some recommendation from government so I can start organising my meetings from home. Unfortunately I have to wait for widespread transmission for me to get that reassurance.
Likewise those with tickets to Italy needed advice from the government NOT to travel, thereby allowing them to get a refund on their tickets. But the advice has been slow in coming.
It is nonsensical and too much all-or-nothing.
You don't need government advice to work from home. If you're capable of doing so then do so. Its between you and your employer not the government. Many people aren't capable of working from home.
You don't think some sort of official advice will be helpful to people in his position then?
“I thought to myself, ‘Why is Bloomberg in a pro-Sanders district?’” said James, who asked us not to use his real name because he is not authorized to discuss his campaign work.
He pulled his car into the parking lot of the local campaign office and walked inside. A week later, he was collecting his first paycheck for his work on the campaign.
Throughout Bloomberg’s 101-day campaign for president, the former New York mayor spent more than $500 million. Part of that money was spent paying a campaign outreach firm, Grindstone Field Solutions, to hire hundreds of “deputy field organizers” to campaign through phone calls, texts and social media posts, many of them teenagers like James.
The money was good: On average, James said he did about 10 hours of work a week, and on some days he wouldn’t do any work at all. But he got paid $83 per day regardless of how much work he did, which he said surprised him.
“I also work as a tutor and I get paid minimum wage, so I’m used to long hours and low pay,” he said. “I was severely overpaid for what I actually did. Maybe I just don’t understand how adult work culture works.”...
Most surprising to me is that there seem to be few cases in the London boroughs. You'd have thought that, with the number of visitors and general travel, London would be a real hotspot.
There is something rather odd about the way this virus spreads: it seems extremely contagious in the conditions of conferences and also patient-doctor transmission, and at things like funerals, but (as far as one can tell from the UK tracking) not so much on public transport, shopping or other places which you might have expected would be very significant.
Well, the most obvious thought is this as a key vector: Universal at conferences, similar thing at funerals, rather rare on public transport. (patient-doctor transmission separate, of course, but you can see why that could be on the cards)
Indeed. As I posted earlier...
If the person with coronavirus at CPAC was infectious, a lot of major figures on the right of politics could come down with it soon.
That's totally correct for lockdowns in people's homes - never leaving the door.
But pray tell, why would I get fatigue working from home thereby being able to avoid having to get on a train surrounded by coughers? Answer: I won't.
I just want some recommendation from government so I can start organising my meetings from home. Unfortunately I have to wait for widespread transmission for me to get that reassurance.
Likewise those with tickets to Italy needed advice from the government NOT to travel, thereby allowing them to get a refund on their tickets. But the advice has been slow in coming.
It is nonsensical and too much all-or-nothing.
You don't need government advice to work from home. If you're capable of doing so then do so. Its between you and your employer not the government. Many people aren't capable of working from home.
You don't think some sort of official advice will be helpful to people in his position then?
No. And I think the government advice needs to be tailored to what the scientific advice suggests works for the country as a whole, not one individuals personal desires that aren't scientifically backed.
I do not see how second-guessing the government on its management of the crisis is helpful right now. We have to trust they’re getting it right. This is not the time for point-scoring.
The Fake News Boris clip is now trending on twitter. This is massively irresponsible.
It is. We need to trust the government on this. If we don’t it can only make matters worse. I think that the people advising UK politicians know what they’re talking about and I cannot imagine our politicians would try to second guess them.
I wish I could be as sanguine here in Spain where today´s figures are awful. True not where I live but I would certainly be considering travel restrictions to the costas from the north as Easter approaches. Otherwise the whole country could easily be inundated rapidly. The area I live contains a lot of holiday homes and the populations swell noticeably at holiday times.
The problem in Spain are the layers of national, regional and local responsibilities. They all have to be untied before concerted country-wide action can be taken. At a time like this you have to have central coordination.
This to a certain extent is a similar problem in Germany, because "health is a state matter". There is a national ministry of health, but they can only advise the states, and there is little coordination between hospitals. However the testing and recording of cases is being coordinated by a central organisation the Robert Koch Institute, which is about 1Km away from where I live.
The RKI is also responsible for issuing guidelines etc for controlling infectious diseases and has proven to be somewhat inadequate, especially in February, with poor guidelines, advice, and too narrow testing criterion. It's nearest equivalent in England is I suppose Public Health England, but Public Health England (which obviously has much wider responsibilities) has an annual budget of 4.5 billion GBP, whereas RKI seems to have around 80 million Euros (for a much larger population).
Doctors here have been dismissive of the RKI to me "It's mostly a bunch of people sitting in offices".
Health is a state matter, but it's even worse as local Gesundsheitsamts, which are a branch of local government, have responsibility in local areas, and as noted, do not coordinate well with hospitals, which are run by various organisations - many by either the Catholic or Evangelical churches. GPs tend to be individual practices, and ambulance services are run by other private organisations - Maltesers, Red Cross, The many University Clinics (=big hospitals) in the big cities are usually the places that should be best equipped to deal with coronavirus cases, but obviously have limited places available.
Towns have set up their own coronavirus hotlines, there is no national coronavirus hotline, although there is a general national phone number which is notoriously difficult to get through to. There are stories of people being given conflicting advice and being sent round in circles.
Very well explained. I don't think that the average German realises how much of a problem this is. The quality of treatment here is very good, but this tends to hide the some very real problems and a very uncoordinated and splintered system is one of them.
Yes. The "Apprentice's" delusion of macho boss culture is also very influential here. And before that, his photos were a staple of almost every American consumer magazine in the 1980s and 1990's ; a brazenly, laughingly, almost cartoonishly arrogant style that was considered the business zeitgeist.
Very much so. When listening to the vox pops of people voting for him it was striking how much of it was along the lines of -
"I love it that he's not a politician. He's a businessman who knows how to run things. OK, so he can be a bit crude and stuff, but so what, he's gonna get things done. It's what we need."
Whereas ironically his biggest weakness is that he is almost comically out of his depth in the White House. Real estate (from inherited money), branding, reality TV, this is absolute child's play compared to top tier government and geopolitics.
But the plebs don't realize that and were thus fooled by him.
The point is the UK has made the decision to leave and be independent, in fact and not just in name. The point is the UK government is telling businesses NOW to prepare and not in 10 months time with just a few weeks notice. Theh point is that the government is being clear and transparent with the ambitions and not seeking a "cake and eat it" approach much bemoaned (and rejected by the EU) under May. The point is that we are diverging.
In other words, you are saying the ignoring the most basic of realities is smart. It's a view, as they say, but I accept that you are right that the government is being consistent in its lunacy.
It isn't ignoring realities, it is accepting realities and moving on with them.
The government has made it clear they want a Canada-style deal, the EU is making it clear if we want closer than Canada it will come with extra provisions we don't want so the government is saying "OK, no closer than Canada then". They're systematically removing all the excuses for the EU to mess us around and accepting what reality means. If that means extra paperwork we aren't seeking to avoid that, we are seeking to accept that.
Now if the EU wants to avoid that paperwork, if they think its not necessary and costly, they of course can approach us and suggest to us are we willing to compromise on this and do away with the paperwork? At which point the negotiations would be different, what are the EU prepared to offer to remove that, rather than what are we prepared to offer. If they're prepared to offer no paperwork with no strings attached then I'm sure we can compromise on that if they suggest it.
The EU will happily accept the paperwork - by making things more difficult to export from the UK international firms are more likely to pick the EU (market 230m) rather than the (UK 60m) when it comes to future investments..
And the thing is that Nissan and co won't be that badly affected but a smaller parts manufacturer / exporter on the other hand....
If the paperwork gets accepted then both parties are happy with what the government is proposing and that's a good thing. We're the ones on the front foot proposing what we want - and hopefully sooner rather than later businesses will know what adjustments they need to make going forwards.
Because it would be ineffectual, because it would be unsustainable, because once they say that they want to sustain it until the end of the epidemic. Plus the winter cold and flu season is coming to an end so at the moment if you said it then a significant portion of the country with a cold would be affected - whereas in a couple of weeks the proportion with colds will be much lower.
I do not see how second-guessing the government on its management of the crisis is helpful right now. We have to trust they’re getting it right. This is not the time for point-scoring.
The Fake News Boris clip is now trending on twitter. This is massively irresponsible.
It is. We need to trust the government on this. If we don’t it can only make matters worse. I think that the people advising UK politicians know what they’re talking about and I cannot imagine our politicians would try to second guess them.
I wish I could be as sanguine here in Spain where today´s figures are awful. True not where I live but I would certainly be considering travel restrictions to the costas from the north as Easter approaches. Otherwise the whole country could easily be inundated rapidly. The area I live contains a lot of holiday homes and the populations swell noticeably at holiday times.
The problem in Spain are the layers of national, regional and local responsibilities. They all have to be untied before concerted country-wide action can be taken. At a time like this you have to have central coordination.
This to a certain extent is a similar problem in Germany, because "health is a state matter". There is a national ministry of health, but they can only advise the states, and there is little coordination between hospitals. However the testing and recording of cases is being coordinated by a central organisation the Robert Koch Institute, which is about 1Km away from where I live.
The RKI is also responsible for issuing guidelines etc for controlling infectious diseases and has proven to be somewhat inadequate, especially in February, with poor guidelines, advice, and too narrow testing criterion. It's nearest equivalent in England is I suppose Public Health England, but Public Health England (which obviously has much wider responsibilities) has an annual budget of 4.5 billion GBP, whereas RKI seems to have around 80 million Euros (for a much larger population).
Doctors here have been dismissive of the RKI to me "It's mostly a bunch of people sitting in offices".
Health is a state matter, but it's even worse as local Gesundsheitsamts, which are a branch of local government, have responsibility in local areas, and as noted, do not coordinate well with hospitals, which are run by various organisations - many by either the Catholic or Evangelical churches. GPs tend to be individual practices, and ambulance services are run by other private organisations - Maltesers, Red Cross, The many University Clinics (=big hospitals) in the big cities are usually the places that should be best equipped to deal with coronavirus cases, but obviously have limited places available.
Towns have set up their own coronavirus hotlines, there is no national coronavirus hotline, although there is a general national phone number which is notoriously difficult to get through to. There are stories of people being given conflicting advice and being sent round in circles.
Very well explained. I don't think that the average German realises how much of a problem this is. The quality of treatment here is very good, but this tends to hide the some very real problems and a very uncoordinated and splintered system is one of them.
Both centralised and decentralised systems have their distinct advantages and disadvantages to them. I think both the nature and level of worry is distributed as unevenly throughout Germany as it is in the UK.
Gesundsheitsamts - Hah what a word for health office. Gesundheit !
That is a normal length word! The health secretary is Bundesgesundheitsminister. You could consider it odd that in English we do not (usually) combine two or more nouns when used for one object but keep a space between each of the original words.
What for me was the "AHA moment" was realising that unlike in English you are not expected to pronounce each word as quickly as possible. An 8 syllable word should be pronounced as 8 syllables
I do not see how second-guessing the government on its management of the crisis is helpful right now. We have to trust they’re getting it right. This is not the time for point-scoring.
The Fake News Boris clip is now trending on twitter. This is massively irresponsible.
It is. We need to trust the government on this. If we don’t it can only make matters worse. I think that the people advising UK politicians know what they’re talking about and I cannot imagine our politicians would try to second guess them.
I wish I could be as sanguine here in Spain where today´s figures are awful. True not where I live but I would certainly be considering travel restrictions to the costas from the north as Easter approaches. Otherwise the whole country could easily be inundated rapidly. The area I live contains a lot of holiday homes and the populations swell noticeably at holiday times.
The problem in Spain are the layers of national, regional and local responsibilities. They all have to be untied before concerted country-wide action can be taken. At a time like this you have to have central coordination.
This to a certain extent is a similar problem in Germany, because "health is a state matter". There is a national ministry of health, but they can only advise the states, and there is little coordination between hospitals. However the testing and recording of cases is being coordinated by a central organisation the Robert Koch Institute, which is about 1Km away from where I live.
The RKI is also responsible for issuing guidelines etc for controlling infectious diseases and has proven to be somewhat inadequate, especially in February, with poor guidelines, advice, and too narrow testing criterion. It's nearest equivalent in England is I suppose Public Health England, but Public Health England (which obviously has much wider responsibilities) has an annual budget of 4.5 billion GBP, whereas RKI seems to have around 80 million Euros (for a much larger population).
Doctors here have been dismissive of the RKI to me "It's mostly a bunch of people sitting in offices".
Health is a state matter, but it's even worse as local Gesundsheitsamts, which are a branch of local government, have responsibility in local areas, and as noted, do not coordinate well with hospitals, which are run by various organisations - many by either the Catholic or Evangelical churches. GPs tend to be individual practices, and ambulance services are run by other private organisations - Maltesers, Red Cross, The many University Clinics (=big hospitals) in the big cities are usually the places that should be best equipped to deal with coronavirus cases, but obviously have limited places available.
Towns have set up their own coronavirus hotlines, there is no national coronavirus hotline, although there is a general national phone number which is notoriously difficult to get through to. There are stories of people being given conflicting advice and being sent round in circles.
Very well explained. I don't think that the average German realises how much of a problem this is. The quality of treatment here is very good, but this tends to hide the some very real problems and a very uncoordinated and splintered system is one of them.
Yes, as a Brit who lived in Germany for 10 years, this was very apparent to me. Although medical treatment in Germany is well-funded, with shiny equipment and little to no wait for treatment, its organisation is massively bureaucratic compared to the run-on-a-shoestring but monolithic NHS. This is perhaps one reason why Germany is struggling to contain the epidemic, but is excellent at treating those that have it while, in the UK, the opposite is likely to be the case.
On Topic : Biden is a better politician than Hillary - she has very poor skills in elective politics. So he (and the people round him) has done the underlying spadework, relentlessly. The momentum building behind him, as the moderate candidate, is being utilised.
Still saying its not very important compared to washing hands.
I told you his earlier advice was bollocks and yet you were determined to believe it. You have a strange, touchingly naive faith in the infallibility of this government.
Not infallibility of government. Just put more faith in science than blowhards.
They said at the time it would likely change soon and now it has, it was never said they'd never change that. It makes sense to roll out advice and important as they're saying to introduce things that are sustainable.
I do not see how second-guessing the government on its management of the crisis is helpful right now. We have to trust they’re getting it right. This is not the time for point-scoring.
The Fake News Boris clip is now trending on twitter. This is massively irresponsible.
It is. We need to trust the government on this. If we don’t it can only make matters worse. I think that the people advising UK politicians know what they’re talking about and I cannot imagine our politicians would try to second guess them.
I wish I could be as sanguine here in Spain where today´s figures are awful. True not where I live but I would certainly be considering travel restrictions to the costas from the north as Easter approaches. Otherwise the whole country could easily be inundated rapidly. The area I live contains a lot of holiday homes and the populations swell noticeably at holiday times.
The problem in Spain are the layers of national, regional and local responsibilities. They all have to be untied before concerted country-wide action can be taken. At a time like this you have to have central coordination.
This to a certain extent is a similar problem in Germany, because "health is a state matter". There is a national ministry of health, but they can only advise the states, and there is little coordination between hospitals. However the testing and recording of cases is being coordinated by a central organisation the Robert Koch Institute, which is about 1Km away from where I live.
The RKI is also responsible for issuing guidelines etc for controlling infectious diseases and has proven to be somewhat inadequate, especially in February, with poor guidelines, advice, and too narrow testing criterion. It's nearest equivalent in England is I suppose Public Health England, but Public Health England (which obviously has much wider responsibilities) has an annual budget of 4.5 billion GBP, whereas RKI seems to have around 80 million Euros (for a much larger population).
Doctors here have been dismissive of the RKI to me "It's mostly a bunch of people sitting in offices".
Health is a state matter, but it's even worse as local Gesundsheitsamts, which are a branch of local government, have responsibility in local areas, and as noted, do not coordinate well with hospitals, which are run by various organisations - many by either the Catholic or Evangelical churches. GPs tend to be individual practices, and ambulance services are run by other private organisations - Maltesers, Red Cross, The many University Clinics (=big hospitals) in the big cities are usually the places that should be best equipped to deal with coronavirus cases, but obviously have limited places available.
Towns have set up their own coronavirus hotlines, there is no national coronavirus hotline, although there is a general national phone number which is notoriously difficult to get through to. There are stories of people being given conflicting advice and being sent round in circles.
Very well explained. I don't think that the average German realises how much of a problem this is. The quality of treatment here is very good, but this tends to hide the some very real problems and a very uncoordinated and splintered system is one of them.
Both centralised and decentralised systems have their distinct advantages and disadvantages to them.
I agree. However, I think that many more people in Britain are aware of the positves and negatives of the British system are than Germans are of the German system.
On Topic : Biden is a better politician than Hillary - she has very poor skills in elective politics. So he (and the people round him) has done the underlying spadework, relentlessly. The momentum building behind him, as the moderate candidate, is being utilised.
Is it fair to say that in the US organising the electoral support team is a much more important characteristic of the candidate than in the UK, where this responsibility lies more with the party?
Still saying its not very important compared to washing hands.
I told you his earlier advice was bollocks and yet you were determined to believe it. You have a strange, touchingly naive faith in the infallibility of this government.
He claimed this morning that the NHS was well placed versus other countries to handle an ICU bed shortage. When questioned specifically why that was the case he said because the 'NHS is well funded'.
He's basically just a party apparatchik. I don't understand why he has any credibility on this site.
Comments
Encouraging working from home may be premature but is at least low-cost compared to eg shutting schools or banning gatherings, so of all the social-distancing measures probably ought to be first-up.
Government advice on travel has been weak (again, "make your own mind up" but not giving much information to base that decision on) and the failure to convey eg self-isolation recommendations to returning travellers at airports is really poor.
I jotted down her predictions:
In two weeks four days' time (from today) - a million cases worldwide
In four weeks three days' time - ten million
In six weeks two days - a hundred million
In eight weeks three days - a billion cases
To be honest I now ignore the more extreme posters who are predicting armageddon and have no professional insight or qualifications in this complex field
I don't have a lot of confidence in the UK government implementing policy for effective intervention compared with some of the Asian countries that have been through this with SARS. That's what's worrying me. I would be a lot more comfortable with a set of processes that people need to follow with a clearly understood objective of containing, delaying or mitigating the epidemic, and where those processes are clearly stated and monitored. Just saying we need to wash our hands a lot doesn't seem adequate for the task.
Either way, it seems that the rest of he country is fine with anyone who can win one of those three.
xkcd link incoming in 3, 2, ...
It seems highly unlikely we will be through this by September unless the summer months really do have a massive effect on the virus.
I have now mentally set in for the next 6 months that normal life will be suspended.
That they no longer work, tells us precisely nothing
This is a bit like claims of austerity...what lock down.
Universal at conferences, similar thing at funerals, rather rare on public transport.
(patient-doctor transmission separate, of course, but you can see why that could be on the cards)
EDIT: Cases outside China
The government has made it clear they want a Canada-style deal, the EU is making it clear if we want closer than Canada it will come with extra provisions we don't want so the government is saying "OK, no closer than Canada then". They're systematically removing all the excuses for the EU to mess us around and accepting what reality means. If that means extra paperwork we aren't seeking to avoid that, we are seeking to accept that.
Now if the EU wants to avoid that paperwork, if they think its not necessary and costly, they of course can approach us and suggest to us are we willing to compromise on this and do away with the paperwork? At which point the negotiations would be different, what are the EU prepared to offer to remove that, rather than what are we prepared to offer. If they're prepared to offer no paperwork with no strings attached then I'm sure we can compromise on that if they suggest it.
The trade-off between health and social costs is ultimately a value-based decision. Saying it will be informed by 'science' pretends none of these trade-offs are actually the preferences of the decision-makers in the room.
Edit to point out this was almost 40 years ago.
#dumptrump
https://xkcd.com/1102/
As I posted earlier...
https://twitter.com/JohnCendpts/status/1236754751284486149
Doctors here have been dismissive of the RKI to me "It's mostly a bunch of people sitting in offices".
Health is a state matter, but it's even worse as local Gesundsheitsamts, which are a branch of local government, have responsibility in local areas, and as noted, do not coordinate well with hospitals, which are run by various organisations - many by either the Catholic or Evangelical churches. GPs tend to be individual practices, and ambulance services are run by other private organisations - Maltesers, Red Cross,
The many University Clinics (=big hospitals) in the big cities are usually the places that should be best equipped to deal with coronavirus cases, but obviously have limited places available.
Towns have set up their own coronavirus hotlines, there is no national coronavirus hotline, although there is a general national phone number which is notoriously difficult to get through to. There are stories of people being given conflicting advice and being sent round in circles.
Another big fail was assuming the world outside of China was a homogeneous block.
An homogeneous block? I digress.
One fairly simple refinement would have been to model Europe, SE Asia, Asia Other, N America and RoW separately.
And the thing is that Nissan and co won't be that badly affected but a smaller parts manufacturer / exporter on the other hand....
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/russia-hired-network-of-britons-to-go-after-enemies-of-putin/ar-BB10WAZC?ocid=spartanntp
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-teen-influencer-on-what-it-was-like-to-work-for-the-bloomberg-campaign/
An 18-year-old high school student in the Bay Area was playing Assassin — a kind of long-term, citywide game of tag using Nerf guns — when he noticed the signs: “Vote Mike Bloomberg.”
“I thought to myself, ‘Why is Bloomberg in a pro-Sanders district?’” said James, who asked us not to use his real name because he is not authorized to discuss his campaign work.
He pulled his car into the parking lot of the local campaign office and walked inside. A week later, he was collecting his first paycheck for his work on the campaign.
Throughout Bloomberg’s 101-day campaign for president, the former New York mayor spent more than $500 million. Part of that money was spent paying a campaign outreach firm, Grindstone Field Solutions, to hire hundreds of “deputy field organizers” to campaign through phone calls, texts and social media posts, many of them teenagers like James.
The money was good: On average, James said he did about 10 hours of work a week, and on some days he wouldn’t do any work at all. But he got paid $83 per day regardless of how much work he did, which he said surprised him.
“I also work as a tutor and I get paid minimum wage, so I’m used to long hours and low pay,” he said. “I was severely overpaid for what I actually did. Maybe I just don’t understand how adult work culture works.”...
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1237058819915644931?s=20
"I love it that he's not a politician. He's a businessman who knows how to run things. OK, so he can be a bit crude and stuff, but so what, he's gonna get things done. It's what we need."
Whereas ironically his biggest weakness is that he is almost comically out of his depth in the White House. Real estate (from inherited money), branding, reality TV, this is absolute child's play compared to top tier government and geopolitics.
But the plebs don't realize that and were thus fooled by him.
Sad.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1237060167914708995
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1237061880381878273
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/03/french-coronavirus-smurf-world-record.html
I think both the nature and level of worry is distributed as unevenly throughout Germany as it is in the UK.
What for me was the "AHA moment" was realising that unlike in English you are not expected to pronounce each word as quickly as possible. An 8 syllable word should be pronounced as 8 syllables
Still saying its not very important compared to washing hands.
if she gets the Veep pick and something happens...
They said at the time it would likely change soon and now it has, it was never said they'd never change that. It makes sense to roll out advice and important as they're saying to introduce things that are sustainable.
https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1237059251983593472?s=20
He's basically just a party apparatchik. I don't understand why he has any credibility on this site.