politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2019 – the result with two seats to be declared
Comments
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Yes - along the lines of the most recent referendum "Leave vs Remain".Floater said:
Cant agree with 4 - if they want to leave it's entirely their callStocky said:
Thanks CR.Casino_Royale said:
Good work!Stocky said:
I`m pleased to report overall profit of around £1,200.Casino_Royale said:Turns out I didn't do too badly in my betting, as it happens.
Over £300+ profit.
Will pay for family lift passes in Tignes next week plus some.
Whilst feeling sad about LDs, I`m relieved that the Corbyn/McDonnell threat has gone and that CP can get that Brexit albatross from off our neck.
Brexit apart, this is my initial wish list for Boris;
1) Repeal the FTPA
2) Legislate (or some such) that Bercow`s speakership shenanighans do not set precedents
3) Row back postal voting rules so that only in exceptional circumstances, i.e. before Blair changed the rules, can a postal vote be applied for.
4) Confirm that any future Scottish Ref will be voted on by all UK citizens not just those that reside in Scotland0 -
You can`t possibly feel more smugger than I am this morning.viewcode said:
I really have to start betting more money. I'm being out-smugged...Stocky said:
I`m pleased to report overall profit of around £1,200.Casino_Royale said:Turns out I didn't do too badly in my betting, as it happens.
Over £300+ profit.
Will pay for family lift passes in Tignes next week plus some.
(Congrats to you both, btw)0 -
DoddsStocky said:Will PBers please share their personal favourite top 3 MP ejections.
Mine are:
Sam Gyimah
Paula Sherriff
Sarah Wollaston
Don`t say Swinson, I`m upset about her as it is. She needs a cuddle (not in that way).
Dent Coad
SWINSON COME ON1 -
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.RochdalePioneers said:
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.WhisperingOracle said:Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.1 -
Amazing results for Tories in Wales, took 6 from Labour and came very close to taking 8. A very unexpected result in Gower, where the Brexit Party had a massive surge to get the same share as the tories. Anyone know why they surged in this seat specifically so much?0
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Lovely to see Momentum making all the wrong takes from this defeat.2
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I do wonder about this. Cummings hates the ERG, but many of this new intake will be disproportionately pro-ERG. The Brexit Party can also still return, looking at the spread of their voting.glw said:
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.RochdalePioneers said:
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.WhisperingOracle said:Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.0 -
Maybe, maybe not. If we had PR though we would at least be heading for a second referendum at least.felix said:
Correct - apart from the fact that Labour was and is, not a remain party. Back to the abacus.TheScreamingEagles said:
However it is over for the time being and we will just have to see how Johnson performs, good luck to him, I hope he rules as one nation liberal and opts for a sensible deal with the the EU. I hope he privately acknowledges that his huge majority was really courtesy of our election system rather than the voters. He actually added only around 300k votes to Theresa May's total.1 -
No. Norway has massive oil wealth, they can afford it, we can't.CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour needs to tack to Norway-style social democracy, I think. Anyone like that in the party waiting in the wings?
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Is there a Sliding Doors universe somewhere, where John Smith didn't pass away, and everything went rather differently?Slackbladder said:Lovely to see Momentum making all the wrong takes from this defeat.
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Yes and Boris can tell the ERG to STFU when they realise the ECJ will rule on these agreed minimum standards. Unless all the new MPs are Brexit headbangers as well.Casino_Royale said:
Excellent. A promising practical start.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Me too. Johnson has the numbers for a genuinely bridging Brexit of a Norway-style that May never pursued. Will he take it?glw said:
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.RochdalePioneers said:
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.WhisperingOracle said:Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.0 -
LibDems must be in a state when Sarah Olney is only 16/1 to be next leader!0
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Sadly Bradford South was garbled in this tweet, which they haven't issued a retraction/correction for (they made a few other mistakes which they did amend!):wooliedyed said:
Between those two yep, but Bradford South was nearly 25% seeing lab to LD!Pulpstar said:I think my seat of Bassetlaw might have had the biggest swing @ 18.4%.
Con + 11.9, Lab -24.9
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205357627770888193
The correct result is quite different!
LAB: 46.3% (-8.2)
CON: 40.4% (+2.2)
BRX: 7.1% (+7.1)
LDEM: 3.8% (+2.5)
Turnout 57.6%0 -
Laura Pidcock is a gold star ejection in its own unbeatable class.Stocky said:Will PBers please share their personal favourite top 3 MP ejections.
Mine are:
Sam Gyimah
Paula Sherriff
Sarah Wollaston
Don`t say Swinson, I`m upset about her as it is. She needs a cuddle (not in that way).
Jess Phillips holding on to almost all her vote share is small piece of good news for Labour's future.
Agree about Jo Swinson. Great person who made some bad calls and had no luck.
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Emma Dent Coad.Stocky said:Will PBers please share their personal favourite top 3 MP ejections.
Mine are:
Sam Gyimah
Paula Sherriff
Sarah Wollaston
Don`t say Swinson, I`m upset about her as it is. She needs a cuddle (not in that way).4 -
Can someone list the LibDem performances in the Mike Smithson letters constituencies.
Can someone list the turnout change in the 'endless youth in a queue to vote' constituencies.1 -
None of the 11 original TIGGers won a seat anywhere, am I right?0
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Oh I totally missed that in the excitement. My bad!MyBurningEars said:
Sadly Bradford South was garbled in this tweet, which they haven't issued a retraction/correction for (they made a few other mistakes which they did amend!):wooliedyed said:
Between those two yep, but Bradford South was nearly 25% seeing lab to LD!Pulpstar said:I think my seat of Bassetlaw might have had the biggest swing @ 18.4%.
Con + 11.9, Lab -24.9
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205357627770888193
The correct result is quite different!
LAB: 46.3% (-8.2)
CON: 40.4% (+2.2)
BRX: 7.1% (+7.1)
LDEM: 3.8% (+2.5)
Turnout 57.6%1 -
Dominic GrieveStocky said:Will PBers please share their personal favourite top 3 MP ejections.
Mine are:
Sam Gyimah
Paula Sherriff
Sarah Wollaston
Don`t say Swinson, I`m upset about her as it is. She needs a cuddle (not in that way).
Chuka
Soubry
Basically all those who thought that they knew better.1 -
Thing is, she is half right. One of the reasons for Labour's constructive ambiguity on Brexit was its voters in the South were Remainers but in the North were Leavers.Stocky said:
It`s a psychosis - their brains don`t work along logical lines.SandyRentool said:
Anyone with a parody Momentumite account might as well pack up now.dr_spyn said:0 -
1) Pidcock
2) Dodds
3) Goldsmith2 -
Random musings:
1. Chris Williamson's lost deposit and mere hundreds of votes...
2. What happened to Amol Rajan and his social media updates, shown early on BBC and never seen again?
3. No Owen Jones, Bastani or Blakeney on BBC coverage - hopefully they will fade away?
4. Last time Mark Francois is allowed in front of a national TV camera if Boris has any sense. Berlin Wall = Red Wall, was he on something?
5. V Sad Berger didn't win the F & GG seat.
6. John Mann, Ian Austin, John Woodcock et al should get humble apologies from their former moderate colleagues.
7. Twitter really is pointless for judging the public mood.
8. Corbyn protege Pidcock goes yet with no TV cameras even there to capture it seemingly.
9. OGH seemingly voted Labour after everything that he'd said before about Corbyn's A/S. Or did I get that wrong?1 -
Will they be more pro ERG, or is this a guess?WhisperingOracle said:
I do wonder about this. Cummings hates the ERG, but many of this new intake will be disproportionately pro-ERG. The Brexit Party can also still return, looking at the spread of their voting.glw said:
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.RochdalePioneers said:
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.WhisperingOracle said:Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.0 -
Yes that may be the case currently. However Brexit has not happened yet. The government now has to implement Brexit, which is a different matter compared to winning an election or a referendum. Things may look different by 2024 when the consequences of leaving the EU are beginning to be evaluated.Wulfrun_Phil said:
The Corbyn cult may be making an all too predictable choice to dig a deeper hole but the LDs need to make one too.fox327 said:We are now waiting to see what Jeremy Corbyn and his supporters are going to do next. My assumption is that the left wing of the Labour party will decide to fight on to the bitter end. I think that essentially Labour has made its choice and it will never go back to being a centrist party. The UK now faces a very long drawn out replacement of Labour by the Liberal Democrats as the main party on the left wing of politics, which could take 10 - 30 years.
In this election Labour has lost 59 seats or -22.5% compared to 2017. The Liberal Democrats have lost 1 seat (without St. Ives) or -8.5% compared to 2017. They are slowly closing the gap between them and Labour. I think this process will continue year after year in local, mayoral, regional and general elections, but it will be slow until the Liberal Democrats overtake Labour nationally.
The biggest swing that I have so far seen against an incumbent party was the 17.5% swing from LD to Con in 58% Leave-voting North Norfolk.
If a centrist left leaning alternative to Labour is to emerge, with broad enough support to win at a GE, it needs to appeal across the Brexit spectrum and it can only effectively do that by accepting that Brexit is now done and dusted and should be regarded as a non-issue for the foreseeable future.0 -
Any opinion polls today?6
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A lot of these new MP's are going to be more sympathetic to Steve Baker than Ken Clarke. He has a problem with this immediately.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Me too. Johnson has the numbers for a genuinely bridging Brexit of a Norway-style that May never pursued. Will he take it?glw said:
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.RochdalePioneers said:
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.WhisperingOracle said:Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.0 -
I nearly took Ladrokes 6/4 that "Labour would win no seat that they didn`t win in 2017" a few times - but didn`t. Does anyone know whether that would have been a winner?0
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0
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They have to claim that black is white to justify themselves.Slackbladder said:Lovely to see Momentum making all the wrong takes from this defeat.
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Oh mercySlackbladder said:Any opinion polls today?
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The problem is that they know what they want and Boris does not, many suspect. Most others are loyalists without strong views, so it's easier for the ERG or a strong adviser who does have a vision to have control.glw said:
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.RochdalePioneers said:
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.WhisperingOracle said:Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.0 -
Nope. Putney.Stocky said:I nearly took Ladrokes 6/4 that "Labour would win no seat that they didn`t win in 2017" a few times - but didn`t. Does anyone know whether that would have been a winner?
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Tbh, if they don’t make her leader they’ve no hope. With Phillips they just might.algarkirk said:
Laura Pidcock is a gold star ejection in its own unbeatable class.Stocky said:Will PBers please share their personal favourite top 3 MP ejections.
Mine are:
Sam Gyimah
Paula Sherriff
Sarah Wollaston
Don`t say Swinson, I`m upset about her as it is. She needs a cuddle (not in that way).
Jess Phillips holding on to almost all her vote share is small piece of good news for Labour's future.
Agree about Jo Swinson. Great person who made some bad calls and had no luck.0 -
No - PutneyStocky said:I nearly took Ladrokes 6/4 that "Labour would win no seat that they didn`t win in 2017" a few times - but didn`t. Does anyone know whether that would have been a winner?
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I just saw Williamson only got 635 votes - delicious0
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Putney?Stocky said:I nearly took Ladrokes 6/4 that "Labour would win no seat that they didn`t win in 2017" a few times - but didn`t. Does anyone know whether that would have been a winner?
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Could a site admin change @Tissue_Price's name to @Tissue_PriceMP please?
Bloody well done Aaron! Ended over a hundred years of Labour representation for NUL.3 -
That's broadly what is happening now anyway. Openreach is now on a fibre-preferred footing for upgrades and new installations. City Fibre is aiming to do 5 million properties, with Vodafone and maybe others as partners. Virgin Media is expanding its footprint, is putting in FTTP, and even has a 10 million new properties plan. There are other companies also working on rolling out fibre.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Broadband -- free or not is unclear -- actually is in the Conservative manifesto, a point perhaps missed by both attackers and defenders of Labour's policy. It says:eek said:
Free broadband is pointless - it's not exactly expensive at the best of times. A free mobile for the unemployed would be a better plan and cost peanuts in the scheme of things.IshmaelZ said:
Exactly what Osborne said last night: forget tax breaks for the billionaires in the first budget, helicopter money into Workington.RochdalePioneers said:Morning all! A thoroughly entertaining election with some genuine "you're fucking kidding me" moments with yellow team at the Stockton South count as results started coming in.
In any election you always get the correct result. Even if that includes insanities like the people of Redcar voting for the party who closed their steelworks and literally broke their town. When they eventually realise the EU aren't to blame for their problems, I fear for the British polity as the (in their view) betrayal by the left and then betrayal by the right leads towards very dark things...
But thats a way off. The Tories have at least a decade in front of them to reshape the country as they see fit. If Johnson has a brain he will spend a £fuckton of cash up here on infrastructure. Transform the place with a Blue stamp and repeat the message "What did Labour ever do for you"
Free broadband would be a good starting point...
My big hope is that Cummings remains around and starts implementing what is discussed https://unherd.com/2019/12/is-this-the-tories-real-manifesto/ - the north needs to be reinvented - it's going to be hard work but it has to be done.
If this Conservative Government is returned to office, we will have an infrastructure revolution for this country. Now is the time to invest in Northern Powerhouse Rail, and the Midlands Rail Hub, and so many more projects, as well as a massive programme of improvements for our roads and gigabit broadband for every home and business.
Labour's plan to nationalise Openreach would have almost certainly brought this ongoing work to a halt.
Hopefully a period of political stablity, relatively, and some certainty about our relationship with the EU, will mean that companies can get investing again.0 -
Correct. Leslie, gapes and Soubry lost as Change UK candidates the latter 2 saved deposits. Chuka, Berger, Funny tinge lost for the LDs along with Wollaston. Allen, Ryan, and one other who's name escapes me stood down and Gavin Shuker got a creditable 9.3% as an indy in Luton (better than the 3 changers)Richard_Nabavi said:None of the 11 original TIGGers won a seat anywhere, am I right?
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Yes. Logicians call them possible worlds. They really exist. Jezza, and all his Twitter supporters have been living in one for years.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Is there a Sliding Doors universe somewhere, where John Smith didn't pass away, and everything went rather differently?Slackbladder said:Lovely to see Momentum making all the wrong takes from this defeat.
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Yes - Putney - you`re right. That`s saved me a few quid then.ThomasNashe said:
Putney?Stocky said:I nearly took Ladrokes 6/4 that "Labour would win no seat that they didn`t win in 2017" a few times - but didn`t. Does anyone know whether that would have been a winner?
0 -
CarlottaVance said:
Off to a good start uniting the nation I see.0 -
Boris pledging to be a 'One Nation' conservative.
I guess that one nation is England.1 -
Interesting gender breakdown from the HoC Library team!
https://members.parliament.uk/parties/Commons
Conservative: 364 MPs
Men 277
Women 87
Labour: 202 MPs
Men 98
Women 104
SNP: 48 MPs
Men 32
Women 16
Lib Dem: 11 MPs
Men 4
Women 7
DUP 8 MPs
Men 7
Women 1
SF 7 MPs
Men 5
Women 2
Had thought that the Tories might have a bit more female representation, given the gender differential in polling with Labour maybe they would benefit from more of a feminine touch? (Only 24% women.)
Labour are for the first time ever more than 50% women (just, at 51%).0 -
and Wales.logical_song said:Boris pledging to be a 'One Nation' conservative.
I guess that one nation is England.0 -
On 8, there was footage posted earlier. She slinked off, refusing to speak. A total coward.Scrapheap_as_was said:Random musings:
1. Chris Williamson's lost deposit and mere hundreds of votes...
2. What happened to Amol Rajan and his social media updates, shown early on BBC and never seen again?
3. No Owen Jones, Bastani or Blakeney on BBC coverage - hopefully they will fade away?
4. Last time Mark Francois is allowed in front of a national TV camera if Boris has any sense. Berlin Wall = Red Wall, was he on something?
5. V Sad Berger didn't win the F & GG seat.
6. John Mann, Ian Austin, John Woodcock et al should get humble apologies from their former moderate colleagues.
7. Twitter really is pointless for judging the public mood.
8. Corbyn protege Pidcock goes yet with no TV cameras even there to capture it seemingly.
9. OGH seemingly voted Labour after everything that he'd said before about Corbyn's A/S. Or did I get that wrong?0 -
I wondered, listening (sort of) to Johnson this morning whether the skids aren't under Cummings. He's been useful, done what Boris wanted, now 'go away'.WhisperingOracle said:
I do wonder about this. Cummings hates the ERG, but many of this new intake will be disproportionately pro-ERG. The Brexit Party can also still return, looking at the spread of their voting.glw said:
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.RochdalePioneers said:
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.WhisperingOracle said:Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.0 -
On queues to vote. There may be another explanation. The size of the queue is partly a function of the number of staff handing out ballot papers. Now I come to think of it, at the polling station where I had to queue yesterday, there was just one pair as opposed to two in previous elections. Maybe local authority cuts created an illusion of greater turnout.another_richard said:Can someone list the LibDem performances in the Mike Smithson letters constituencies.
Can someone list the turnout change in the 'endless youth in a queue to vote' constituencies.0 -
Classic DomWhisperingOracle said:
American Republicanism here we come.CarlottaVance said:
An utter genius.0 -
Labour are deluded if they think this was just about Brexit.
A better leader and a credible retail offer to those Leave areas would have helped . But it’s fanciful to say Labour going full on Leave wouldn’t have caused them immense damage in many other areas .
The policy was a fudge but the least worst option but needed a better messenger and a more credible manifesto .1 -
Owen Jones was on ITV, undergoing a series of personal tragedies on live television.Scrapheap_as_was said:Random musings:
1. Chris Williamson's lost deposit and mere hundreds of votes...
2. What happened to Amol Rajan and his social media updates, shown early on BBC and never seen again?
3. No Owen Jones, Bastani or Blakeney on BBC coverage - hopefully they will fade away?
4. Last time Mark Francois is allowed in front of a national TV camera if Boris has any sense. Berlin Wall = Red Wall, was he on something?
5. V Sad Berger didn't win the F & GG seat.
6. John Mann, Ian Austin, John Woodcock et al should get humble apologies from their former moderate colleagues.
7. Twitter really is pointless for judging the public mood.
8. Corbyn protege Pidcock goes yet with no TV cameras even there to capture it seemingly.
9. OGH seemingly voted Labour after everything that he'd said before about Corbyn's A/S. Or did I get that wrong?
There were a few places where cameras hadn't been sent - Blyth Valley was another - where presumably the television networks thought them just too improbable losses.0 -
Jezza sixth in line for father of the house!
Peter bottomley (1975)
Barry Sheerman (1979)
Harriet Harman (1982)
Edward leigh (1983 for the rest)
Nick brown
Jezza0 -
How much profit did you miss out on by not using betfair which was offering 1.53 and higher at one point?viewcode said:
I prefer mineMaxPB said:As for my nowcast:
CON 364
LAB 196 (inc speaker)
SNP 43
LD 25
GRN 1
PC 3
NI 18
Con majority 78
Posted on November 18th. I think I did pretty well!
1 bet of £150 at 2/5 with Betfred on Con OM and posted here on the day
1 bet of £120 at 1/3 with Betfred on Con OM and posted here on the day
Total profit £1000 -
It's almost worth looking at social media to determine what is NOT happening.Scrapheap_as_was said:7. Twitter really is pointless for judging the public mood.
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Son 2 is over from Thailand and complaining about my broadband's speed. I get about 60; he gets over 100glw said:
That's broadly what is happening now anyway. Openreach is now on a fibre-preferred footing for upgrades and new installations. City Fibre is aiming to do 5 million properties, with Vodafone and maybe others as partners. Virgin Media is expanding its footprint, is putting in FTTP, and even has a 10 million new properties plan. There are other companies also working on rolling out fibre.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Broadband -- free or not is unclear -- actually is in the Conservative manifesto, a point perhaps missed by both attackers and defenders of Labour's policy. It says:eek said:
Free broadband is pointless - it's not exactly expensive at the best of times. A free mobile for the unemployed would be a better plan and cost peanuts in the scheme of things.IshmaelZ said:
Free broadband would be a good starting point...RochdalePioneers said:Morning all! A thoroughly entertaining election with some genuine "you're fucking kidding me" moments with yellow team at the Stockton South count as results started coming in.
In any election you always get the correct result. Even if that includes insanities like the people of Redcar voting for the party who closed their steelworks and literally broke their town. When they eventually realise the EU aren't to blame for their problems, I fear for the British polity as the (in their view) betrayal by the left and then betrayal by the right leads towards very dark things...
But thats a way off. The Tories have at least a decade in front of them to reshape the country as they see fit. If Johnson has a brain he will spend a £fuckton of cash up here on infrastructure. Transform the place with a Blue stamp and repeat the message "What did Labour ever do for you"
My big hope is that Cummings remains around and starts implementing what is discussed https://unherd.com/2019/12/is-this-the-tories-real-manifesto/ - the north needs to be reinvented - it's going to be hard work but it has to be done.
If this Conservative Government is returned to office, we will have an infrastructure revolution for this country. Now is the time to invest in Northern Powerhouse Rail, and the Midlands Rail Hub, and so many more projects, as well as a massive programme of improvements for our roads and gigabit broadband for every home and business.
Labour's plan to nationalise Openreach would have almost certainly brought this ongoing work to a halt.
Hopefully a period of political stablity, relatively, and some certainty about our relationship with the EU, will mean that companies can get investing again.1 -
Up to a point, Lord Copper.....its not over yet..
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1205436927765368832?s=202 -
I suspect the ERG will say: 'We made you, Boris, and we can just as easily destroy you.' The new intake will already be informed that Boris is just a figurehead, here one day and gone the next, and for the good of their long-term futures they need to recognize where the real power lies.kle4 said:
The problem is that they know what they want and Boris does not, many suspect. Most others are loyalists without strong views, so it's easier for the ERG or a strong adviser who does have a vision to have control.glw said:
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.RochdalePioneers said:
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.WhisperingOracle said:Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.0 -
Yes. It's a shame, in most cases. They completely messed up TIG, but it was the right thing to do, particularly on the Labour side, just done badly. They took a risk and paid the price.Richard_Nabavi said:None of the 11 original TIGGers won a seat anywhere, am I right?
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That is a rather touching naivety.not_on_fire said:One things for sure - Brexit is now fully in the hands of the Brexiteers. No more blaming Remainers when it goes tits up.
There will be lots of blaming ahead. And it will punch down and out.1 -
I would say the opposite: as long as Scotland returns mostly SNP rather than Labour MPs, Labour is more likely to win in E&W after Scottish independence than in E&W within the UK. Fears of Labour being in the SNP's 'pocket' (aka English nationalist antipathy towards Scotland) hold Labour back in England and will only go away once Scotland is independent. It's only sentimental attachment to the union, and in Scotland a tribal resentment towards the SNP, that prevents Labour embracing independence.ReggieCide said:
I personally have no strong feelings one way or the other. The essence of my point was that Independence meant Scottish constituencies were no longer available to be won back. It's very hard to see Labour as viable contenders in a UK minus Scotland.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Labour got killed in Scotland for opposing independence and looking like the Tories' poodle. I would recommend that Labour do nothing to stand in the way of Scottish independence, which I think is now much more likely than not. Scotland and E&W no longer form a single political culture, the Scots should have the freedom to build a modern, European social democratic country on their own. Left wing unionism is dead.ReggieCide said:
I'm not Labour but, given that perspective, I think Labour's first priority is Scotland. The Independence debate is going to make this election look like a tea party. It has to find some way of stopping that or at least slowing it down. For what it's worth, I reckon that helping to push BREXIT though asap so that the Scots are definitely looking at rejoining rather than staying in, looks a viable strategy.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Let's be realistic, Labour isn't going to be winning a majority anytime soon. Not with the SNP cleaning up in Scotland again (to be fair I did predict that!),ReggieCide said:
There's a Catch 22 here. You only get to introduce PR if you win FPTP and why change a winning system?MyBurningEars said:
They only get to implement that if they win an election though! (Even if they do so as part of a coalition, that suggests they're within touching distance of being able to do so alone.) And if they can get a FPTP majority then they can actually implement their policies as they wish, rather than bending as a coalition requires.CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour must also back PR - and fast. That must be one of their new policies.
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You've raised a "Kind Hearts and Coronets" scenario in my mind. Harriet Harman shot down in a hot-air balloon over Berkeley Square?wooliedyed said:Jezza sixth in line for father of the house!
Peter bottomley (1975)
Barry Sheerman (1979)
Harriet Harman (1982)
Edward leigh (1983 for the rest)
Nick brown
Jezza0 -
Most of the first hour post exit poll on BBC was Naga in Blyth Valley seeing if they'd break the record for earliest declaration, then the winner's speech.Cookie said:
Owen Jones was on ITV, undergoing a series of personal tragedies on live television.Scrapheap_as_was said:Random musings:
1. Chris Williamson's lost deposit and mere hundreds of votes...
2. What happened to Amol Rajan and his social media updates, shown early on BBC and never seen again?
3. No Owen Jones, Bastani or Blakeney on BBC coverage - hopefully they will fade away?
4. Last time Mark Francois is allowed in front of a national TV camera if Boris has any sense. Berlin Wall = Red Wall, was he on something?
5. V Sad Berger didn't win the F & GG seat.
6. John Mann, Ian Austin, John Woodcock et al should get humble apologies from their former moderate colleagues.
7. Twitter really is pointless for judging the public mood.
8. Corbyn protege Pidcock goes yet with no TV cameras even there to capture it seemingly.
9. OGH seemingly voted Labour after everything that he'd said before about Corbyn's A/S. Or did I get that wrong?
There were a few places where cameras hadn't been sent - Blyth Valley was another - where presumably the television networks thought them just too improbable losses.0 -
As well, a lot of the new intake are going to be broadly sympathetic to the aims of the ERG, certainly much more than the previous intake.Stark_Dawning said:
I suspect the ERG will say: 'We made you, Boris, and we can just as easily destroy you.' The new intake will already be informed that Boris is just a figurehead, here one day and gone the next, and for the good of their long-term futures they need to recognize where the real power lies.kle4 said:
The problem is that they know what they want and Boris does not, many suspect. Most others are loyalists without strong views, so it's easier for the ERG or a strong adviser who does have a vision to have control.glw said:
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.RochdalePioneers said:
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.WhisperingOracle said:Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.0 -
0
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If Corbyn had resigned in 2017 Momentum would have a point. But this is Labour's worst defeat in years, it is astonishing to me that they just want to carry on.
Social democracy without Corbyn baggage - fine. But they've gone too radical.0 -
Sue HaymanStocky said:Will PBers please share their personal favourite top 3 MP ejections.
Mine are:
Sam Gyimah
Paula Sherriff
Sarah Wollaston
Don`t say Swinson, I`m upset about her as it is. She needs a cuddle (not in that way).
Laura Pidcock
I want to feel joy at Skinner, but he's an old ill man and i find myself reflecting a bit on the decades of service he has given.0 -
I got 1.66 and then again at 1.62 yesterday. And I didn`t close them out, though my finger hovered over the cash out button.rkrkrk said:
How much profit did you miss out on by not using betfair which was offering 1.53 and higher at one point?viewcode said:
I prefer mineMaxPB said:As for my nowcast:
CON 364
LAB 196 (inc speaker)
SNP 43
LD 25
GRN 1
PC 3
NI 18
Con majority 78
Posted on November 18th. I think I did pretty well!
1 bet of £150 at 2/5 with Betfred on Con OM and posted here on the day
1 bet of £120 at 1/3 with Betfred on Con OM and posted here on the day
Total profit £1000 -
Yep, firstly we can blame the 3.5 years of remainer obstructionism.Mango said:
That is a rather touching naivety.not_on_fire said:One things for sure - Brexit is now fully in the hands of the Brexiteers. No more blaming Remainers when it goes tits up.
There will be lots of blaming ahead. And it will punch down and out.
0 -
It's right that many things they complain about, like brexit and the media, are all very well, but its incumbent on the party and leader to overcome that.CarlottaVance said:
And does it say ian Murray is the former labour mp? I thought he won.0 -
Now watching the BBC coverage from 10pm last night. I was too nervous to watch it at the time. (Too nervous to do anything but watch the financial markets between 9.55 and 10.05, when I came back here to see Ave_It and Francis Urquhart's exultations). No other event comes anywhere close for drama. Will the country face a period of uncertainty, further deadlock, or will it go to hell in a handcart? BONG! Even though I obviously no know the result, I felt sick with anticipation watching it.
Such a massive feeling of relief. Corbyn and McDonnell nowhere near the levers of power.
Ooh, they've wheeled Priti Patel out now. She's upped her game since I last saw her.
Naga Munchetty now. Gone right off her since I saw her on Richard Osman's house of games.
Greetings to pb.com from the people of 12 hours ago.0 -
I apologise for pursuing an education. I guess I should have known my place.OllyT said:0 -
They will also owe their presence to Boris, Boris Boris. They will be loyal.WhisperingOracle said:
As well, a lot of the new intake are going to be broadly sympathetic to the aims of the ERG, certainly much more than the previous intake.Stark_Dawning said:
I suspect the ERG will say: 'We made you, Boris, and we can just as easily destroy you.' The new intake will already be informed that Boris is just a figurehead, here one day and gone the next, and for the good of their long-term futures they need to recognize where the real power lies.kle4 said:
The problem is that they know what they want and Boris does not, many suspect. Most others are loyalists without strong views, so it's easier for the ERG or a strong adviser who does have a vision to have control.glw said:
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.RochdalePioneers said:
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.WhisperingOracle said:Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.0 -
As he himself famously noted about himself. Boris should scare people by noting he us the future, now.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1205437996851441664
He was the future once.0 -
It was a stupid thing to do. They should have stayed and fought. Then they'd still be MPs today when Corbyn is saying his goodbyes.Selebian said:
Yes. It's a shame, in most cases. They completely messed up TIG, but it was the right thing to do, particularly on the Labour side, just done badly. They took a risk and paid the price.Richard_Nabavi said:None of the 11 original TIGGers won a seat anywhere, am I right?
0 -
Oh, I was wrong. It turns out the SNP have won too wellAlistair said:The sound you are hearing is the sounds of a hundred "The SNP focus on independence in this election campaign has hurt them" think pieces being ditched.
https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1205258943628562445
The fools.1 -
All the MPs must now gather round Sir Peter Bottomley to hear tales of the legendary fall of Wilson and then Callaghan and the night the government fell, as he is the only remaining witness to these events0
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I wonder if an urgent IQ assessment could be made of the new Tory intake.WhisperingOracle said:
A lot of these new MP's are going to be more sympathetic to Steve Baker than Ken Clarke. He has a problem with this immediately.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Me too. Johnson has the numbers for a genuinely bridging Brexit of a Norway-style that May never pursued. Will he take it?glw said:
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.RochdalePioneers said:
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.WhisperingOracle said:Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.0 -
I'm genuinely surprised that calling the silent majority of ordinary, working class British people racists, gammons and bigots didn't work.4
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So Boris will now deliver Brexit. The trade deal with the EU will swiftly follow. It’s already in the political declaration. The world will not end, indeed our economy will outgrow the EZ in 2020. There is much to do. We will have a high spending, increased borrowing budget that will prove counter cyclical as the EZ mess slows us down. Boris will lead as the one nation socially liberal Tory he always was. Things can only get better.0
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I suspect there will be big internal struggles to come, even with a big majority, because the Farage spectre is still there for the Tories.NorthernPowerhouse said:
They will also owe their presence to Boris, Boris Boris. They will be loyal.WhisperingOracle said:
As well, a lot of the new intake are going to be broadly sympathetic to the aims of the ERG, certainly much more than the previous intake.Stark_Dawning said:
I suspect the ERG will say: 'We made you, Boris, and we can just as easily destroy you.' The new intake will already be informed that Boris is just a figurehead, here one day and gone the next, and for the good of their long-term futures they need to recognize where the real power lies.kle4 said:
The problem is that they know what they want and Boris does not, many suspect. Most others are loyalists without strong views, so it's easier for the ERG or a strong adviser who does have a vision to have control.glw said:
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.RochdalePioneers said:
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.WhisperingOracle said:Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
He's waiting in the wings for the Tories to tack back to a softer Brexit again, as usual.0 -
0
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My top 3? To paraphrase the GIANT that is Tony Blair:
Pidcock, Pidcock, Pidcock0 -
Or departed in greater numbers, earlier, about the time of the Owen Smith challenge.DecrepiterJohnL said:
It was a stupid thing to do. They should have stayed and fought. Then they'd still be MPs today when Corbyn is saying his goodbyes.Selebian said:
Yes. It's a shame, in most cases. They completely messed up TIG, but it was the right thing to do, particularly on the Labour side, just done badly. They took a risk and paid the price.Richard_Nabavi said:None of the 11 original TIGGers won a seat anywhere, am I right?
0 -
Never a good idea for a government to allow a referendum on a question they dont want approved like that.Alistair said:
Oh, I was wrong. It turns out the SNP have won too wellAlistair said:The sound you are hearing is the sounds of a hundred "The SNP focus on independence in this election campaign has hurt them" think pieces being ditched.
https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1205258943628562445
The fools.
It's just a worse idea to refuse it forever when theres such demand for it. Interesting to see how Boris plays it.1 -
1
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Mark Francois with the Liverpool style majority only eclipsed by Castle Point next door!0
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On the interactive map showing gender (and party etc) I spent a good five seconds trying to think who was the MP who'd not declared their gender.MyBurningEars said:Interesting gender breakdown from the HoC Library team!
https://members.parliament.uk/parties/Commons
Conservative: 364 MPs
Men 277
Women 87
Labour: 202 MPs
Men 98
Women 104
SNP: 48 MPs
Men 32
Women 16
Lib Dem: 11 MPs
Men 4
Women 7
DUP 8 MPs
Men 7
Women 1
SF 7 MPs
Men 5
Women 2
Had thought that the Tories might have a bit more female representation, given the gender differential in polling with Labour maybe they would benefit from more of a feminine touch? (Only 24% women.)
Labour are for the first time ever more than 50% women (just, at 51%).
https://visual.parliament.uk/research/visualisations/general-election-2019-constituencies/?map=gender0 -
Wouldn't take long and wouldn't involve too many fingers either!Chris said:
I wonder if an urgent IQ assessment could be made of the new Tory intake.WhisperingOracle said:
A lot of these new MP's are going to be more sympathetic to Steve Baker than Ken Clarke. He has a problem with this immediately.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Me too. Johnson has the numbers for a genuinely bridging Brexit of a Norway-style that May never pursued. Will he take it?glw said:
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.RochdalePioneers said:
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.WhisperingOracle said:Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.0 -
Only another 1826 days to the next election.Slackbladder said:Any opinion polls today?
3
... Con majority 2024 nailed on. 
