politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s quitting but not quite yet as Blair’s old seat goes t
Comments
-
James Frith out in Bury North.
Con gain.0 -
Won't find any argument from me over that. His "Anywhere But Westminster" is extremely good. He manages to put his own politics to one side and ask the whys?alex_ said:
For many years the leftist journalist most worth reading has been John Harris. That won’t change.FrancisUrquhart said:
He missed Sqwawkbox, Evolve, Rachael Swindon.....Andrew said:1 -
Cons GAIN Carshalton.1
-
Tory net gain in london?Brom said:Tom Brake loses by 700
1 -
teeheeKentRising said:Cons GAIN Carshalton.
1 -
And queues were because people didn’t want to vote in the dark and had Xmas parties to go to.FrancisUrquhart said:
But turn-out isn't up. And registration increase was basically inline with population increase (and as I said numerous times, lots of uni now auto-enroll all students).DecrepiterJohnL said:
Except that there really was a late registration rush and there really were queues to vote. Whether there were regional variations, or we should question the lazy assumption these were all or even mainly Labour voters, can wait.RobD said:
All that guff about registration too.FrancisUrquhart said:Turn-out 67% so far...so again total horse-shit about voting rush.
0 -
CON GAIN CARLSHALTON1
-
If it hasn't gone away from Labour now I don't think the LDs are ever getting it back.Andy_JS said:Bloody hell:
Sheffield Hallam
Lab 19,709
LD 18,997
Con 14,696
Grn 1,630
BRX 1,562
UKIP 168
Ind 123
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E140009221 -
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205357692186959873?s=20KentRising said:Cons GAIN Carshalton.
0 -
Jesus, we thought the Lib Dem campaign was crap, but....Swinson and Brake gone...1
-
Con Gain Carshalton0
-
Lib Dems hold Caithness. Even I'm cheering them on, at this point.3
-
Don't stop to askCarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205357692186959873?s=20KentRising said:Cons GAIN Carshalton.
And now you've found a break to make at last
You've got to find a way
Say what you want to say
Brake out0 -
Jamie Stone squeaks it for the LDs in Caithness.0
-
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205358315011788802?s=20KentRising said:Lib Dems hold Caithness. Even I'm cheering them on, at this point.
0 -
-
How many recounts have there been tonight? Feels like fewer than usual?0
-
Ruth doesn't have to skinny dip0
-
So Swinson is the only SLD loser ?speedy2 said:0 -
Final Scotland seats results seem to be:
SNP 48
CON 6
LD 4
LAB 1
Basically it's a LAB-SNP swing of 8% and little else, apart from Swinson but that was Swinson.0 -
Jim Murphy spelling it out to Andrew Neil:
Lab manifesto was just telling poor people we'll give them free things.3 -
If LDs hold O&S, they'll have the exact same number of seats as they did prior to the election in Scotland.0
-
Labour have held both marginal seats in Coventry by tiny majorities.0
-
Those may have been factors but there were queues when I voted in the dark.alex_ said:
And queues were because people didn’t want to vote in the dark and had Xmas parties to go to.FrancisUrquhart said:
But turn-out isn't up. And registration increase was basically inline with population increase (and as I said numerous times, lots of uni now auto-enroll all students).DecrepiterJohnL said:
Except that there really was a late registration rush and there really were queues to vote. Whether there were regional variations, or we should question the lazy assumption these were all or even mainly Labour voters, can wait.RobD said:
All that guff about registration too.FrancisUrquhart said:Turn-out 67% so far...so again total horse-shit about voting rush.
0 -
I'll be proven wrong in future on a bunch of stuff, so I'm going to take a brief moment now to stress that my posts earlier today disparaging election day rumours as meaningless guesswork was right this time. Take this beauty, for example, with 4k retweets from a verified journalist. And the Betfair swings against a Tory majority based on them.
https://twitter.com/ljayes/status/12052055243520450562 -
Canterbury was reportedly a recount (though Lab held in the end by nearly 2,000) and Blyth Valley was a "batch recount".alex_ said:How many recounts have there been tonight? Feels like fewer than usual?
0 -
This result almost existential for the LDs0
-
The Conservatives block in Coventry is in the SW of the city and so gets split between NW and S.Andy_JS said:Labour have held both marginal seats in Coventry by tiny majorities.
0 -
Bye bye brake.... Another highlight.0
-
Just one teeny, tiny issue...RandallFlagg said:If LDs hold O&S, they'll have the exact same number of seats as they did prior to the election in Scotland.
0 -
Fuckin' Coventry, proving a very tough nut to crack.Andy_JS said:Labour have held both marginal seats in Coventry by tiny majorities.
0 -
It seems my anecdotes about the LibDems having worries in Hallam proved correct.0
-
Yes.another_richard said:
So Swinson is the only SLD loser ?speedy2 said:
The SNP underperformed the Exit Poll, I always thought that the SNP can not win all seats on just 44% of the vote.0 -
Winchester:
Con 28,430
LD 27,445
Lab 2,723
JACP 2922 -
How many of the 2015 LD survivors are still in parliament? Farron and Carmichael(if he wins)?0
-
Perhaps this has all been said already, but it's interesting that - while the final YouGov MRP doesn't look particularly good in the light of the results - if it had been released a day earlier it would have been spot on in terms of Tory vote share and only about a dozen out in terms of Tory seats.0
-
Dewsbury:
Con 26,171
Lab 24,618
LD 2,406
Grn 1,0601 -
Tories were a few hundred away in Gordon, which would have made it 7 Scottish seats for them and a unionist buffer stretching along the border and right round the east coast. I reckon they'd have been pretty happy with 7. Six is okay.Artist said:
Tories probably two below expectation and Labour one below. Not really a seismic result.speedy2 said:Final Scotland seats results seem to be:
SNP 48
CON 6
LD 4
LAB 1
Basically it's a LAB-SNP swing of 8% and little else, apart from Swinson but that was Swinson.0 -
Ghastly result for metropolitan unionist liberals like me. Utterly awful.
Only consolations: Labour humiliated; SNP underwhelms; DUP damaged.
A whole book could / must be written on the pisspoor Lib Dem campaign.1 -
What a corker of a seat!!
@britainelects
9m9 minutes ago
More
Bradford South: Lab HOLD
LAB: 33.9% (-20.6)
LDEM: 29.6% (+28.3)
CON: 29.6% (-8.6)
BREX: 5.2% (+5.2)
GRN: 1.8% (+0.9)
Swing: -20.6
Turnout: 78.6%0 -
Probably a blessing for the LDs.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Just one teeny, tiny issue...RandallFlagg said:If LDs hold O&S, they'll have the exact same number of seats as they did prior to the election in Scotland.
1 -
Southern valleys the next Labour heartland to fall in an election? What's their most heartlandy heartland?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Lord Faulkner on the BBC. Wonder when he'll quit?2
-
VILLIERS HANGS ON IN CHIPPING BARNET1
-
The fact that Labour have narrowly stayed above 200 seats is bad news for those who want to get rid of Corbyn and McDonnell. It just looks better than one hundred and something even if it had been 199.0
-
Some jokes never get old.numbertwelve said:Lord Faulkner on the BBC. Wonder when he'll quit?
2 -
Charlie Falconer sighting on BBC1.0
-
ITV brave to have a person outside Jezza's house given his rant at the media.0
-
For all of Labour's losses, it's notable that there hasn't really been a big name defeated. I know more high profile MPs tend to have safer seats, but some of the seats they've lost were fairly safe. It's not healthy for them the top of their party has become dominated by those in big cities.0
-
the yokels own youGardenwalker said:Ghastly result for metropolitan unionist liberals like me. Utterly awful.
Only consolations: Labour humiliated; SNP underwhelms; DUP damaged.
A whole book could / must be written on the pisspoor Lib Dem campaign.0 -
Piddock.tlg86 said:For all of Labour's losses, it's notable that there hasn't really been a big name defeated. I know more high profile MPs tend to have safer seats, but some of the seats they've lost were fairly safe. It's not healthy for them the top of their party has become dominated by those in big cities.
2 -
My friend mentioned labour posters up near her school in Bents Green...another_richard said:It seems my anecdotes about the LibDems having worries in Hallam proved correct.
0 -
Any news on Jonny mercer?0
-
What happened there with the LD candidate?MyBurningEars said:What a corker of a seat!!
@britainelects
9m9 minutes ago
More
Bradford South: Lab HOLD
LAB: 33.9% (-20.6)
LDEM: 29.6% (+28.3)
CON: 29.6% (-8.6)
BREX: 5.2% (+5.2)
GRN: 1.8% (+0.9)
Swing: -20.6
Turnout: 78.6%1 -
Pidcock probably the biggest scalp.tlg86 said:For all of Labour's losses, it's notable that there hasn't really been a big name defeated. I know more high profile MPs tend to have safer seats, but some of the seats they've lost were fairly safe. It's not healthy for them the top of their party has become dominated by those in big cities.
0 -
Imagine what the electoral map of the 80s and 90s would have been if Foot had remained leader after 1983...Andy_JS said:The fact that Labour have narrowly stayed above 200 seats is bad news for those who want to get rid of Corbyn and McDonnell. It just looks better than one hundred and something even if it had been 199.
0 -
Very few of those who voted LD in 2015 are voting LD in this election, they have retained only half of their past vote each of the last 3 elections according to the polls.kle4 said:How many of the 2015 LD survivors are still in parliament? Farron and Carmichael(if he wins)?
They only remain stable because newcomers from other parties fill the gap.0 -
CON GAIN DEWSBURY1
-
Lord falconer on bbc..... Resignation incoming?0
-
Two universities.KentRising said:
Fuckin' Coventry, proving a very tough nut to crack.Andy_JS said:Labour have held both marginal seats in Coventry by tiny majorities.
0 -
Now the "Stu" meme will never get going...numbertwelve said:
Pidcock probably the biggest scalp.tlg86 said:For all of Labour's losses, it's notable that there hasn't really been a big name defeated. I know more high profile MPs tend to have safer seats, but some of the seats they've lost were fairly safe. It's not healthy for them the top of their party has become dominated by those in big cities.
0 -
Completely different to the BBC result so I can only think britainelects has made a cock-up of the figures!Andy_JS said:
What happened there with the LD candidate?MyBurningEars said:What a corker of a seat!!
@britainelects
9m9 minutes ago
More
Bradford South: Lab HOLD
LAB: 33.9% (-20.6)
LDEM: 29.6% (+28.3)
CON: 29.6% (-8.6)
BREX: 5.2% (+5.2)
GRN: 1.8% (+0.9)
Swing: -20.6
Turnout: 78.6%
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E140005880 -
Ha! I'd forgotten about her. ITV didn't mention her when showing notable casualties. I guess she's not that much of a household name.numbertwelve said:
Pidcock probably the biggest scalp.tlg86 said:For all of Labour's losses, it's notable that there hasn't really been a big name defeated. I know more high profile MPs tend to have safer seats, but some of the seats they've lost were fairly safe. It's not healthy for them the top of their party has become dominated by those in big cities.
0 -
He won ages ago I think?Scrapheap_as_was said:Any news on Jonny mercer?
1 -
Sky saying 78-82 Tory majority.0
-
Skinner more symbolic for the public.numbertwelve said:
Pidcock probably the biggest scalp.tlg86 said:For all of Labour's losses, it's notable that there hasn't really been a big name defeated. I know more high profile MPs tend to have safer seats, but some of the seats they've lost were fairly safe. It's not healthy for them the top of their party has become dominated by those in big cities.
Pidders loss a blow to the Corbynista ultras.0 -
Goodness me.
I suppose that, at the end of the night and after all the talk of Portillo moments, it's kind of fitting that the decapitee turned out to be the leader of the Revoke Party. And now the Liberal Democrats are projected to end up with one seat fewer than they won in 2017 - and Tim Farron is the last survivor in the country between Oxford and Edinburgh. Where they're meant to go from here, who knows?
Wooden-headed Labour looks at imminent risk of going to war with itself, as the Momentum wing tries to buy time to push Corbyn Mk2 upon what's left of the PLP, and upon the nation.
Meanwhile, Boris Johnson wins an immense landslide victory in England, Nicola Sturgeon does likewise in Scotland, and the breakup of Britain once again looms upon the horizon.
Where will we find ourselves by 2024, I wonder?1 -
Given Jezza's campaign trail, do we think Labour knew they were in for a shellacking or they had no clue about anything?0
-
I think those Bradford South figures are wrong. This is the correct result:
Lab 18,390
Con 16,044
BRX 2,819
LD 1,505
Grn 983
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E140005880 -
Not sure that result is correctAndy_JS said:
What happened there with the LD candidate?MyBurningEars said:What a corker of a seat!!
@britainelects
9m9 minutes ago
More
Bradford South: Lab HOLD
LAB: 33.9% (-20.6)
LDEM: 29.6% (+28.3)
CON: 29.6% (-8.6)
BREX: 5.2% (+5.2)
GRN: 1.8% (+0.9)
Swing: -20.6
Turnout: 78.6%0 -
I would love to believe Boris has a plan to win over Scotland, draw it back from the brink of indy other than just saying no to them, and that that plan will work, but I cannot. He's proven me very wrong before, so I hope he will again.0
-
Anecdotes on Twitter from 'sources' suggest they thought they'd done enough for a hung parliament.FrancisUrquhart said:Given Jezza's campaign trail, do we think Labour knew they were in for a shell-laking or they had no clue about anything?
1 -
Maybe he'll renegotiate the Act of Union?kle4 said:I would love to believe Boris has a plan to win over Scotland, draw it back from the brink of indy other than just saying no to them, and that that plan will work, but I cannot. He's proven me very wrong before, so I hope he will again.
0 -
Presume Johnny Mercer, Plymouth Moor View? Well safe.Scrapheap_as_was said:Any news on Jonny mercer?
Conservative 60.7%
Labour 31.5%
Liberal Democrat 5.2%
Green 2.7%
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E140008791 -
They did better than 2010 and 2015 in terms of votes, better than Kinnock in 1987.Andy_JS said:The fact that Labour have narrowly stayed above 200 seats is bad news for those who want to get rid of Corbyn and McDonnell. It just looks better than one hundred and something even if it had been 199.
But Boris did better than Thatcher on that measure.0 -
Excellent news...alex_ said:
He won ages ago I think?Scrapheap_as_was said:Any news on Jonny mercer?
Buckingham yet?0 -
0
-
CON gain from LAB (shamelessly stolen from someone else upthread)Scrapheap_as_was said:
Excellent news...alex_ said:
He won ages ago I think?Scrapheap_as_was said:Any news on Jonny mercer?
Buckingham yet?1 -
Everything crossed for the UUP to join the party in fermanagh0
-
There are a lot of miserable people on the left (Berry the latest on the BBC) who are coming dangerously close to saying the people are idiots for voting the way they did.
Not a great look.0 -
What's he actually meant to do? The Unionist vote in Scotland is hopelessly split. If we somehow end up with Indyref2 *AND* the No campaign wins it again, Indyref3 will simply follow in a few years' time.kle4 said:I would love to believe Boris has a plan to win over Scotland, draw it back from the brink of indy other than just saying no to them, and that that plan will work, but I cannot. He's proven me very wrong before, so I hope he will again.
The Union is finished. It's done.0 -
I can't get BBC website to load any individual seat results.0
-
Sad to see him go. One of the good guys.CarlottaVance said:Very different from Dent Coad:
https://twitter.com/JosephineCumbo/status/1205357163146817536?s=201 -
We were also informed by certain Labourites on here that Corbyn had some magical, super secret oracle MRP up his sleeve that was guiding him efficiently to the seats he needed to be in.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Anecdotes on Twitter from 'sources' suggest they thought they'd done enough for a hung parliament.FrancisUrquhart said:Given Jezza's campaign trail, do we think Labour knew they were in for a shell-laking or they had no clue about anything?
I think they were making it up as they were going along.1
