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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s quitting but not quite yet as Blair’s old seat goes t

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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    Labour over 200 makes it slightly easier for a recovery next time.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So close in Coventry.

    Coventry NW must be very close. Also Carshalton & Wallington.
    NW might be the most marginal seat in the country
    C & W goes blue.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,194
    Brom said:

    Tom Brake loses by 700

    Bloody hell.
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    alex_ said:

    Andrew said:
    He missed Sqwawkbox, Evolve, Rachael Swindon.....
    For many years the leftist journalist most worth reading has been John Harris. That won’t change.
    Won't find any argument from me over that. His "Anywhere But Westminster" is extremely good. He manages to put his own politics to one side and ask the whys?
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Cons GAIN Carshalton.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,055
    Brom said:

    Tom Brake loses by 700

    Tory net gain in london?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Cons GAIN Carshalton.

    teehee
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    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    RobD said:

    Turn-out 67% so far...so again total horse-shit about voting rush.

    All that guff about registration too.
    Except that there really was a late registration rush and there really were queues to vote. Whether there were regional variations, or we should question the lazy assumption these were all or even mainly Labour voters, can wait.
    But turn-out isn't up. And registration increase was basically inline with population increase (and as I said numerous times, lots of uni now auto-enroll all students).
    And queues were because people didn’t want to vote in the dark and had Xmas parties to go to.
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    CON GAIN CARLSHALTON
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,901
    Andy_JS said:

    Bloody hell:

    Sheffield Hallam

    Lab 19,709
    LD 18,997
    Con 14,696
    Grn 1,630
    BRX 1,562
    UKIP 168
    Ind 123

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000922

    If it hasn't gone away from Labour now I don't think the LDs are ever getting it back.
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    Jesus, we thought the Lib Dem campaign was crap, but....Swinson and Brake gone...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,961
    Con Gain Carshalton
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,793
    Brom said:

    Tom Brake loses by 700

    Interesting result.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Lib Dems hold Caithness. Even I'm cheering them on, at this point.
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    Don't stop to ask
    And now you've found a break to make at last
    You've got to find a way
    Say what you want to say
    Brake out
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    Jamie Stone squeaks it for the LDs in Caithness.
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    Lib Dems hold Caithness. Even I'm cheering them on, at this point.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205358315011788802?s=20
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    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    How many recounts have there been tonight? Feels like fewer than usual?
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,055
    Ruth doesn't have to skinny dip
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Final Scotland seats results seem to be:
    SNP 48
    CON 6
    LD 4
    LAB 1

    Basically it's a LAB-SNP swing of 8% and little else, apart from Swinson but that was Swinson.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,290
    Jim Murphy spelling it out to Andrew Neil:

    Lab manifesto was just telling poor people we'll give them free things.
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    If LDs hold O&S, they'll have the exact same number of seats as they did prior to the election in Scotland.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,793
    Labour have held both marginal seats in Coventry by tiny majorities.
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    alex_ said:

    RobD said:

    Turn-out 67% so far...so again total horse-shit about voting rush.

    All that guff about registration too.
    Except that there really was a late registration rush and there really were queues to vote. Whether there were regional variations, or we should question the lazy assumption these were all or even mainly Labour voters, can wait.
    But turn-out isn't up. And registration increase was basically inline with population increase (and as I said numerous times, lots of uni now auto-enroll all students).
    And queues were because people didn’t want to vote in the dark and had Xmas parties to go to.
    Those may have been factors but there were queues when I voted in the dark.
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    I'll be proven wrong in future on a bunch of stuff, so I'm going to take a brief moment now to stress that my posts earlier today disparaging election day rumours as meaningless guesswork was right this time. Take this beauty, for example, with 4k retweets from a verified journalist. And the Betfair swings against a Tory majority based on them.

    https://twitter.com/ljayes/status/1205205524352045056
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    alex_ said:

    How many recounts have there been tonight? Feels like fewer than usual?

    Canterbury was reportedly a recount (though Lab held in the end by nearly 2,000) and Blyth Valley was a "batch recount".
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,961
    This result almost existential for the LDs
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,793
    alex_ said:

    How many recounts have there been tonight? Feels like fewer than usual?

    They don't announce them on TV like they used to. I think there's been just as many close results as usual, and they would have had recounts.
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    Andy_JS said:

    Labour have held both marginal seats in Coventry by tiny majorities.

    The Conservatives block in Coventry is in the SW of the city and so gets split between NW and S.
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    Bye bye brake.... Another highlight.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    speedy2 said:

    Final Scotland seats results seem to be:
    SNP 48
    CON 6
    LD 4
    LAB 1

    Basically it's a LAB-SNP swing of 8% and little else, apart from Swinson but that was Swinson.

    Tories probably two below expectation and Labour one below. Not really a seismic result.
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    If LDs hold O&S, they'll have the exact same number of seats as they did prior to the election in Scotland.

    Just one teeny, tiny issue... ;)
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Andy_JS said:

    Labour have held both marginal seats in Coventry by tiny majorities.

    Fuckin' Coventry, proving a very tough nut to crack.
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    It seems my anecdotes about the LibDems having worries in Hallam proved correct.
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Yes.
    The SNP underperformed the Exit Poll, I always thought that the SNP can not win all seats on just 44% of the vote.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,793
    Winchester:

    Con 28,430
    LD 27,445
    Lab 2,723
    JACP 292
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,901
    How many of the 2015 LD survivors are still in parliament? Farron and Carmichael(if he wins)?
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,136
    Perhaps this has all been said already, but it's interesting that - while the final YouGov MRP doesn't look particularly good in the light of the results - if it had been released a day earlier it would have been spot on in terms of Tory vote share and only about a dozen out in terms of Tory seats.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,793
    edited December 2019
    Dewsbury:

    Con 26,171
    Lab 24,618
    LD 2,406
    Grn 1,060
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Artist said:

    speedy2 said:

    Final Scotland seats results seem to be:
    SNP 48
    CON 6
    LD 4
    LAB 1

    Basically it's a LAB-SNP swing of 8% and little else, apart from Swinson but that was Swinson.

    Tories probably two below expectation and Labour one below. Not really a seismic result.
    Tories were a few hundred away in Gordon, which would have made it 7 Scottish seats for them and a unionist buffer stretching along the border and right round the east coast. I reckon they'd have been pretty happy with 7. Six is okay.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,866
    Ghastly result for metropolitan unionist liberals like me. Utterly awful.

    Only consolations: Labour humiliated; SNP underwhelms; DUP damaged.

    A whole book could / must be written on the pisspoor Lib Dem campaign.
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    What a corker of a seat!!

    @britainelects
    9m9 minutes ago
    More
    Bradford South: Lab HOLD

    LAB: 33.9% (-20.6)
    LDEM: 29.6% (+28.3)
    CON: 29.6% (-8.6)
    BREX: 5.2% (+5.2)
    GRN: 1.8% (+0.9)

    Swing: -20.6
    Turnout: 78.6%
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    If LDs hold O&S, they'll have the exact same number of seats as they did prior to the election in Scotland.

    Just one teeny, tiny issue... ;)
    Probably a blessing for the LDs.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,901
    Southern valleys the next Labour heartland to fall in an election? What's their most heartlandy heartland?
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    Lord Faulkner on the BBC. Wonder when he'll quit?
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    VILLIERS HANGS ON IN CHIPPING BARNET
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,793
    The fact that Labour have narrowly stayed above 200 seats is bad news for those who want to get rid of Corbyn and McDonnell. It just looks better than one hundred and something even if it had been 199.
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    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    tlg86 said:

    Brom said:

    Tom Brake loses by 700

    Bloody hell.
    That is unbelievable....we dared to dream and now he has gone
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    Lord Faulkner on the BBC. Wonder when he'll quit?

    Some jokes never get old.
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    Charlie Falconer sighting on BBC1.
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    ITV brave to have a person outside Jezza's house given his rant at the media.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,194
    For all of Labour's losses, it's notable that there hasn't really been a big name defeated. I know more high profile MPs tend to have safer seats, but some of the seats they've lost were fairly safe. It's not healthy for them the top of their party has become dominated by those in big cities.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760

    Ghastly result for metropolitan unionist liberals like me. Utterly awful.

    Only consolations: Labour humiliated; SNP underwhelms; DUP damaged.

    A whole book could / must be written on the pisspoor Lib Dem campaign.

    the yokels own you
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    tlg86 said:

    For all of Labour's losses, it's notable that there hasn't really been a big name defeated. I know more high profile MPs tend to have safer seats, but some of the seats they've lost were fairly safe. It's not healthy for them the top of their party has become dominated by those in big cities.

    Piddock.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,961

    It seems my anecdotes about the LibDems having worries in Hallam proved correct.

    My friend mentioned labour posters up near her school in Bents Green...
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    edited December 2019
    Any news on Jonny mercer?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,793

    What a corker of a seat!!

    @britainelects
    9m9 minutes ago
    More
    Bradford South: Lab HOLD

    LAB: 33.9% (-20.6)
    LDEM: 29.6% (+28.3)
    CON: 29.6% (-8.6)
    BREX: 5.2% (+5.2)
    GRN: 1.8% (+0.9)

    Swing: -20.6
    Turnout: 78.6%

    What happened there with the LD candidate?
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    tlg86 said:

    For all of Labour's losses, it's notable that there hasn't really been a big name defeated. I know more high profile MPs tend to have safer seats, but some of the seats they've lost were fairly safe. It's not healthy for them the top of their party has become dominated by those in big cities.

    Pidcock probably the biggest scalp.
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    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Andy_JS said:

    The fact that Labour have narrowly stayed above 200 seats is bad news for those who want to get rid of Corbyn and McDonnell. It just looks better than one hundred and something even if it had been 199.

    Imagine what the electoral map of the 80s and 90s would have been if Foot had remained leader after 1983... :hushed:
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    kle4 said:

    How many of the 2015 LD survivors are still in parliament? Farron and Carmichael(if he wins)?

    Very few of those who voted LD in 2015 are voting LD in this election, they have retained only half of their past vote each of the last 3 elections according to the polls.
    They only remain stable because newcomers from other parties fill the gap.
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    CON GAIN DEWSBURY
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    Lord falconer on bbc..... Resignation incoming?
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    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Andy_JS said:

    Labour have held both marginal seats in Coventry by tiny majorities.

    Fuckin' Coventry, proving a very tough nut to crack.
    Two universities.
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    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited December 2019

    tlg86 said:

    For all of Labour's losses, it's notable that there hasn't really been a big name defeated. I know more high profile MPs tend to have safer seats, but some of the seats they've lost were fairly safe. It's not healthy for them the top of their party has become dominated by those in big cities.

    Pidcock probably the biggest scalp.
    Now the "Stu" meme will never get going... :disappointed:
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    Andy_JS said:

    What a corker of a seat!!

    @britainelects
    9m9 minutes ago
    More
    Bradford South: Lab HOLD

    LAB: 33.9% (-20.6)
    LDEM: 29.6% (+28.3)
    CON: 29.6% (-8.6)
    BREX: 5.2% (+5.2)
    GRN: 1.8% (+0.9)

    Swing: -20.6
    Turnout: 78.6%

    What happened there with the LD candidate?
    Completely different to the BBC result so I can only think britainelects has made a cock-up of the figures!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000588
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,194

    tlg86 said:

    For all of Labour's losses, it's notable that there hasn't really been a big name defeated. I know more high profile MPs tend to have safer seats, but some of the seats they've lost were fairly safe. It's not healthy for them the top of their party has become dominated by those in big cities.

    Pidcock probably the biggest scalp.
    Ha! I'd forgotten about her. ITV didn't mention her when showing notable casualties. I guess she's not that much of a household name.
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    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Any news on Jonny mercer?

    He won ages ago I think?
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Sky saying 78-82 Tory majority.
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    tlg86 said:

    For all of Labour's losses, it's notable that there hasn't really been a big name defeated. I know more high profile MPs tend to have safer seats, but some of the seats they've lost were fairly safe. It's not healthy for them the top of their party has become dominated by those in big cities.

    Pidcock probably the biggest scalp.
    Skinner more symbolic for the public.

    Pidders loss a blow to the Corbynista ultras.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited December 2019
    Goodness me.

    I suppose that, at the end of the night and after all the talk of Portillo moments, it's kind of fitting that the decapitee turned out to be the leader of the Revoke Party. And now the Liberal Democrats are projected to end up with one seat fewer than they won in 2017 - and Tim Farron is the last survivor in the country between Oxford and Edinburgh. Where they're meant to go from here, who knows?

    Wooden-headed Labour looks at imminent risk of going to war with itself, as the Momentum wing tries to buy time to push Corbyn Mk2 upon what's left of the PLP, and upon the nation.

    Meanwhile, Boris Johnson wins an immense landslide victory in England, Nicola Sturgeon does likewise in Scotland, and the breakup of Britain once again looms upon the horizon.

    Where will we find ourselves by 2024, I wonder?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2019
    Given Jezza's campaign trail, do we think Labour knew they were in for a shellacking or they had no clue about anything?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,793
    I think those Bradford South figures are wrong. This is the correct result:

    Lab 18,390
    Con 16,044
    BRX 2,819
    LD 1,505
    Grn 983

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000588
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Andy_JS said:

    What a corker of a seat!!

    @britainelects
    9m9 minutes ago
    More
    Bradford South: Lab HOLD

    LAB: 33.9% (-20.6)
    LDEM: 29.6% (+28.3)
    CON: 29.6% (-8.6)
    BREX: 5.2% (+5.2)
    GRN: 1.8% (+0.9)

    Swing: -20.6
    Turnout: 78.6%

    What happened there with the LD candidate?
    Not sure that result is correct
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,136
    kle4 said:

    How many of the 2015 LD survivors are still in parliament? Farron and Carmichael(if he wins)?

    Who would choose to keep that pair?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,901
    I would love to believe Boris has a plan to win over Scotland, draw it back from the brink of indy other than just saying no to them, and that that plan will work, but I cannot. He's proven me very wrong before, so I hope he will again.
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    Given Jezza's campaign trail, do we think Labour knew they were in for a shell-laking or they had no clue about anything?

    Anecdotes on Twitter from 'sources' suggest they thought they'd done enough for a hung parliament.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    kle4 said:

    I would love to believe Boris has a plan to win over Scotland, draw it back from the brink of indy other than just saying no to them, and that that plan will work, but I cannot. He's proven me very wrong before, so I hope he will again.

    Maybe he'll renegotiate the Act of Union? :p
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    Any news on Jonny mercer?

    Presume Johnny Mercer, Plymouth Moor View? Well safe.

    Conservative 60.7%
    Labour 31.5%
    Liberal Democrat 5.2%
    Green 2.7%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000879
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Andy_JS said:

    The fact that Labour have narrowly stayed above 200 seats is bad news for those who want to get rid of Corbyn and McDonnell. It just looks better than one hundred and something even if it had been 199.

    They did better than 2010 and 2015 in terms of votes, better than Kinnock in 1987.
    But Boris did better than Thatcher on that measure.
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    alex_ said:

    Any news on Jonny mercer?

    He won ages ago I think?
    Excellent news...

    Buckingham yet?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    alex_ said:

    Any news on Jonny mercer?

    He won ages ago I think?
    Excellent news...

    Buckingham yet?
    CON gain from LAB (shamelessly stolen from someone else upthread)
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,055
    Everything crossed for the UUP to join the party in fermanagh
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,488
    edited December 2019
    There are a lot of miserable people on the left (Berry the latest on the BBC) who are coming dangerously close to saying the people are idiots for voting the way they did.

    Not a great look.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kle4 said:

    I would love to believe Boris has a plan to win over Scotland, draw it back from the brink of indy other than just saying no to them, and that that plan will work, but I cannot. He's proven me very wrong before, so I hope he will again.

    What's he actually meant to do? The Unionist vote in Scotland is hopelessly split. If we somehow end up with Indyref2 *AND* the No campaign wins it again, Indyref3 will simply follow in a few years' time.

    The Union is finished. It's done.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,290
    I can't get BBC website to load any individual seat results.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited December 2019

    Given Jezza's campaign trail, do we think Labour knew they were in for a shell-laking or they had no clue about anything?

    Anecdotes on Twitter from 'sources' suggest they thought they'd done enough for a hung parliament.
    We were also informed by certain Labourites on here that Corbyn had some magical, super secret oracle MRP up his sleeve that was guiding him efficiently to the seats he needed to be in.

    I think they were making it up as they were going along.
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    Sad to see him go. One of the good guys.
This discussion has been closed.