Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independence
I would not be so sure about that. Many of the remaining Labour voters in Scotland may well wonder why it’s worth staying in the UK.
And yet people who argue that leaving a 40 year old trading and customs Union will be terribly difficult seem to think that leaving a 300 year old political, fiscal, defence, diplomatic, trading, customs and currency union will be straightforward?
Wait until the complications on the Irish sea emerge...
It doesn’t work like that, though, does it? I hope I’m wrong, but putting myself in the shows of a Labour voter in Scotland I’d be asking myself why stay.
Money. It's why they joined up in the first place.
Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independence
I would not be so sure about that. Many of the remaining Labour voters in Scotland may well wonder why it’s worth staying in the UK.
And yet people who argue that leaving a 40 year old trading and customs Union will be terribly difficult seem to think that leaving a 300 year old political, fiscal, defence, diplomatic, trading, customs and currency union will be straightforward?
Wait until the complications on the Irish sea emerge...
It doesn’t work like that, though, does it? I hope I’m wrong, but putting myself in the shows of a Labour voter in Scotland I’d be asking myself why stay.
because the Germans aren't going to fund your 10% spending deficit ?
If there is one thing to learn over recent years, it is that nationalist emotionalism beats reason and economics.
au contraire
Brexit is something of a one off. its the british lefties getting all hysterical because they lost.
Elsewhere in Europe nationalists aren't carrying the halls of power, money is. But that's because the other European polities are making adaptions whereas Westminster just kept the lid on the pressure cooker.
Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independence
I'm Scottish, I'm not particularly well disposed of towards the SNP, but I'm certain the UK died yesterday.
45% of the Scottish people voted to leave previously, with a hard brexit and Boris in charge for the next 5 years this will get over the line. Likewise Northern Ireland returned a majority of nationalist MPs for the first time. There will be a border poll and it will be won.
Of course, this means a Tory majority of around 210 in England and Wales. Not sure how long it takes to o we turn that.
The United Kingdom of England and Wales will not elect its three parliaments using first past the post.
Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
The tricky bit is the nomination thresholds. 10% of MPs shouldn't be too hard, but the CLP and Affiliate (Trade Union) thresholds are more difficult.
Apart from anything else, the contest is unlikely to be speedy, Easter at the earliest.
I've just backed RLB at 6.2. It's a sort of hedge because Starmer is the favourite so if Lab decide to continue the leftist project I win but then again if they do that they won't win the next election either.
So trebles all round.
Surely Labour can't get to the 30th anniversary of the Tories *booting out* their first woman leader - and another one since - without chalking up one for the supposed party of equality? So I'm surprised to see Starmer quite so out in front in the odds. Name recognition? That said, I hope they also hire someone electable (which is probably also why Starmer is so far out in front).
I've warmed (or at least thawed) to RLB, but I think Angela Rayner would carry more weight than her. I get they're the next generation and would carry the flame for the Dear Leader. But Cooper and possibly Thornberry should be up there on grounds of greater heft and competence, and even Jess Phillips on the grounds of socking it to the man - she'd soon get back some of the Midlands (ex)marginals and score some points at PMQs.
In any case, I'm not convinced Corbyn's timescale for leaving is at all urgent. Given a choice, I reckon he'd give himself a year plus to groom the nextgen candidates to victory. At the very best he's waiting to see how insistent others are that he buggers off pronto.
Corbyn won't leave until he wants to. He had the brass neck to stay on after 80% of the PLP voted no confidence in him.
RLB is continuity Corbyn. Rayner, Phillips or possibly Thornberry are the ones with the guts for a fight against the Entryists. I think they are too numerous though. It is like the dark days of Militant in the mid Eighties.
Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
The tricky bit is the nomination thresholds. 10% of MPs shouldn't be too hard, but the CLP and Affiliate (Trade Union) thresholds are more difficult.
Apart from anything else, the contest is unlikely to be speedy, Easter at the earliest.
I've just backed RLB at 6.2. It's a sort of hedge because Starmer is the favourite so if Lab decide to continue the leftist project I win but then again if they do that they won't win the next election either.
So trebles all round.
Surely Labour can't get to the 30th anniversary of the Tories *booting out* their first woman leader - and another one since - without chalking up one for the supposed party of equality? So I'm surprised to see Starmer quite so out in front in the odds. Name recognition? That said, I hope they also hire someone electable (which is probably also why Starmer is so far out in front).
I've warmed (or at least thawed) to RLB, but I think Angela Rayner would carry more weight than her. I get they're the next generation and would carry the flame for the Dear Leader. But Cooper and possibly Thornberry should be up there on grounds of greater heft and competence, and even Jess Phillips on the grounds of socking it to the man - she'd soon get back some of the Midlands (ex)marginals and score some points at PMQs.
In any case, I'm not convinced Corbyn's timescale for leaving is at all urgent. Given a choice, I reckon he'd give himself a year plus to groom the nextgen candidates to victory. At the very best he's waiting to see how insistent others are that he buggers off pronto.
Corbyn won't leave until he wants to. He had the brass neck to stay on after 80% of the PLP voted no confidence in him.
RLB is continuity Corbyn. Rayner, Phillips or possibly Thornberry are the ones with the guts for a fight against the Entryists. I think they are too numerous though. It is like the dark days of Militant in the mid Eighties.
The PLP might deny Corbyn the chance to stay. Labour needs to find a Kinnock for the 2020s.
Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
The tricky bit is the nomination thresholds. 10% of MPs shouldn't be too hard, but the CLP and Affiliate (Trade Union) thresholds are more difficult.
Apart from anything else, the contest is unlikely to be speedy, Easter at the earliest.
I've just backed RLB at 6.2. It's a sort of hedge because Starmer is the favourite so if Lab decide to continue the leftist project I win but then again if they do that they won't win the next election either.
So trebles all round.
Surely Labour can't get to the 30th anniversary of the Tories *booting out* their first woman leader - and another one since - without chalking up one for the supposed party of equality? So I'm surprised to see Starmer quite so out in front in the odds. Name recognition? That said, I hope they also hire someone electable (which is probably also why Starmer is so far out in front).
I've warmed (or at least thawed) to RLB, but I think Angela Rayner would carry more weight than her. I get they're the next generation and would carry the flame for the Dear Leader. But Cooper and possibly Thornberry should be up there on grounds of greater heft and competence, and even Jess Phillips on the grounds of socking it to the man - she'd soon get back some of the Midlands (ex)marginals and score some points at PMQs.
In any case, I'm not convinced Corbyn's timescale for leaving is at all urgent. Given a choice, I reckon he'd give himself a year plus to groom the nextgen candidates to victory. At the very best he's waiting to see how insistent others are that he buggers off pronto.
Corbyn won't leave until he wants to. He had the brass neck to stay on after 80% of the PLP voted no confidence in him.
RLB is continuity Corbyn. Rayner, Phillips or possibly Thornberry are the ones with the guts for a fight against the Entryists. I think they are too numerous though. It is like the dark days of Militant in the mid Eighties.
The PLP might deny Corbyn the chance to stay. Labour needs to find a Kinnock for the 2020s.
Luckily for Ed the vote against him was so much split. So he's not out of the running. But I guess you don't stand much of a chance of the leadership if you get only a third of your own constituents' votes.
Comments
Brexit is something of a one off. its the british lefties getting all hysterical because they lost.
Elsewhere in Europe nationalists aren't carrying the halls of power, money is. But that's because the other European polities are making adaptions whereas Westminster just kept the lid on the pressure cooker.
Utter denial. The whole of Labour, left, right, new, old was comprehensively and utterly and totally defeated. All of us.
But I thought they were dreadful. Immature, bitter and divisive. Sometimes you just have to take a beating with good grace.
https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1205387373145669632?s=20
RLB is continuity Corbyn. Rayner, Phillips or possibly Thornberry are the ones with the guts for a fight against the Entryists. I think they are too numerous though. It is like the dark days of Militant in the mid Eighties.