Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
The tricky bit is the nomination thresholds. 10% of MPs shouldn't be too hard, but the CLP and Affiliate (Trade Union) thresholds are more difficult.
Apart from anything else, the contest is unlikely to be speedy, Easter at the earliest.
I've just backed RLB at 6.2. It's a sort of hedge because Starmer is the favourite so if Lab decide to continue the leftist project I win but then again if they do that they won't win the next election either.
So trebles all round.
Surely Labour can't get to the 30th anniversary of the Tories *booting out* their first woman leader - and another one since - without chalking up one for the supposed party of equality? So I'm surprised to see Starmer quite so out in front in the odds. Name recognition? That said, I hope they also hire someone electable (which is probably also why Starmer is so far out in front).
I've warmed (or at least thawed) to RLB, but I think Angela Rayner would carry more weight than her. I get they're the next generation and would carry the flame for the Dear Leader. But Cooper and possibly Thornberry should be up there on grounds of greater heft and competence, and even Jess Phillips on the grounds of socking it to the man - she'd soon get back some of the Midlands (ex)marginals and score some points at PMQs.
In any case, I'm not convinced Corbyn's timescale for leaving is at all urgent. Given a choice, I reckon he'd give himself a year plus to groom the nextgen candidates to victory. At the very best he's waiting to see how insistent others are that he buggers off pronto.
Corbyn won't leave until he wants to. He had the brass neck to stay on after 80% of the PLP voted no confidence in him.
RLB is continuity Corbyn. Rayner, Phillips or possibly Thornberry are the ones with the guts for a fight against the Entryists. I think they are too numerous though. It is like the dark days of Militant in the mid Eighties.
The PLP might deny Corbyn the chance to stay. Labour needs to find a Kinnock for the 2020s.
Luckily for Ed the vote against him was so much split. So he's not out of the running. But I guess you don't stand much of a chance of the leadership if you get only a third of your own constituents' votes.
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