Boris has a very handy majority that could see him through the next election as well. He can proceed with Brexit, without the distraction of the Europhile headbangers.
Playing with the Economist data, leave-voting seats unsurprisingly voted Con +20 overall. But even down to about 40% of the leave vote Con won overall.
Playing with the Economist data, leave-voting seats unsurprisingly voted Con +20 overall. But even down to about 40% of the leave vote Con won overall.
Boris has a very handy majority that could see him through the next election as well. He can proceed with Brexit, without the distraction of the Europhile headbangers.
The only way to proceed with Brexit without distractions is to do it in name only and ignore the Eurosceptic headbangers.
Boris has a very handy majority that could see him through the next election as well. He can proceed with Brexit, without the distraction of the Europhile headbangers.
The only way to proceed with Brexit without distractions is to do it in name only and ignore the Eurosceptic headbangers.
Yeah but this is using actual vote share so a bit cheaty, when you've only got polling data to go with there's more uncertainty. I wonder whether an advantage of MRP over UNS is that it reduces sensitivity of the MP numbers to the polling uncertainty ... perhaps it doesn't work that way at all. Might be able to stake a guess at how sensitive it is from the way the two MRP projections differed.
So many waffer-thin majorities for Labour. Not only are they going to start miles behind, they will have to throw loads of resources at defending these new marginals.
So many waffer-thin majorities for Labour. Not only are they going to start miles behind, they will have to throw loads of resources at defending these new marginals.
No, they'll just wheel out Len McCluskey to go around saying 'Come home to Labour'.
Turn-out 67% so far...so again total horse-shit about voting rush.
All that guff about registration too.
Except that there really was a late registration rush and there really were queues to vote. Whether there were regional variations, or we should question the lazy assumption these were all or even mainly Labour voters, can wait.
Turn-out 67% so far...so again total horse-shit about voting rush.
All that guff about registration too.
Except that there really was a late registration rush and there really were queues to vote. Whether there were regional variations, or we should question the lazy assumption these were all or even mainly Labour voters, can wait.
But turn-out isn't up. And registration increase was basically inline with population increase (and as I said numerous times, lots of uni now auto-enroll all students).
Comments
Con 30,327
Ind Gauke 15,919
Lab 7,228
LD 6,251
Grn 1,466
CON 5-6
LAB 1
LD 3-4
SNP 48-50
Tory Scottish seats creeping up, now up to SIX.
Con 37,035
LD 16,624
Lab 7,638
BRX 1,286
Ind 681
ED 194
Con 21,791
Lab 16,492
BRX 4,151
LD 1,759
Grn 758
Ind 517
Ind 470
Slacker.
Lab 22,594
Con 19,069
Those are places where conservatism is almost a majority.
The SNP have got their socialist leg back but not the conservative one.
Sheffield Hallam
Lab 19,709
LD 18,997
Con 14,696
Grn 1,630
BRX 1,562
UKIP 168
Ind 123
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000922
They got some Labour votes back but no one else.
Their result in terms of votes and seats is worse than 2015.
SNP 23,885
Con 23,066
Lab 3,052
LD 5,913
Symbolic.
Berger ~ 17,000
Lab ~ 13,000
Lab 19,468
Con 19,175
BRX 2,887
LD 1,182
Grn 602
Ind 212
Ind 209
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000657
Worked a treat this time.
MRP #2 was taken at height of photo-gate and it knocked 20 seats off from the previous day.
But because there are so many marginals the impact was much greater.
Of the northern Manchester town seats only Bolton SE and Rochdale are Labour.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1205356762632769538?s=20
Con gain.