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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s quitting but not quite yet as Blair’s old seat goes t

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,605
    edited December 2019
    Tory majority will be 80 if they hold St Ives. Otherwise 78.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Artist said:
    Shows how little class she has.

    No loss to our political life whatsoever

    Good riddance
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Quincel said:

    Did the Greens set up any plausible targets? Any double-digit rises or 20%+ results?

    Congrats on ur fantasy team. Top of everyone last time I checked.
    Thanks! I thought 200k points was a tough target but virtually everything went right for me.
  • Quincel said:

    Did the Greens set up any plausible targets? Any double-digit rises or 20%+ results?

    Here's a quick review of the only seats they got above 5% in the 2017 election, starting with the ones they did best at in 2017. RA4G = "Remain Alliance, LDs stood down in favour of Greens" and RA4LD = "Remain Alliance, Greens stood down in favour of LDs"

    Isle of Wight 15.2% (2017: 17.3%, down 2.1%) going backwards despite RAforG, 3rd place, Tories got 56%

    Buckingham didn't stand, RA4LD who didn't win either (was 16.3% in 2017, obviously unusual circumstances vs speaker but even so the Greens gave up a prime seat here)

    Bristol West 24.9% (2017: 12.9%, up 12.0%) good 2nd place and added share, but Labour way ahead on 62% and Greens had benefit of RA4G

    Sheffield Central 9.0% (2017: 8.0%, up 0.9%) No RA, 3rd place, Labour on 67%

    Skipton and Ripon 4.7% (2017: 6.4%, down 1.7%) No RA, 4th place, Tories on 59%

    North Herefordshire 9.3% (2017: 5.5%, up 3.8% ) No RA, 4th place, Tories on 63%

    North East Hertfordshire 4.3% (2017: 5.3%, down 1.1%) No RA, 4th place, Tories on 57%

    Not really anything to write home about is it? If they'd added 10% on Isle of Wight, got to 27%, that would be interesting as a potential staging post. Went backwards in it. Bristol West they got a solid 2nd place but long way behind Lab.
  • I checked the rest of the RA4G seats too. When/if the Lib Dems come back I expect Green shares to fall accordingly so the share rises here are probably not so exciting as they first appear.

    Bury St Edmunds 15.7% (2017: 4.2%, up 11.5%), 3rd place, Tories 61%

    Cannock Chase 6.3% (2017: 1.7%, up 4.6%), 3rd place, Tories 68%

    Dulwich & West Norwood 16.5% (2017: 2.5%, up 14.0%), 2nd place, Labour 66%, only just pipped the Tories, nice gain in vote share!

    Exeter 8.6% (2017: 1.9%, up 6.8%), 3rd place, Labour got 53%

    Forest of Dean 9.1% (2017: 2.5%, up 6.7%), 3rd place, Tories got 60%)

    Stroud 7.5% (2017: 2.2%, up 5.3%), 3rd place, Tories 48% and Labour 42%

    The results from Dulwich & West Norwood and Bury St Edmunds look encouragingish, but will they hold that share if the LDs come back into things, and in both seats how many heaves will it take when the top-placed party enjoys such vote share? If you only get one election every five years from now on, could be a long time before Greens are seriously in contention in, say, half a dozen seats.And there are seats they'd built up decent positions before where they've slipped back in 2017 and stayed put in 2019 (eg Norwich South was talked up as a seat they might eventually win, got 14%-15% in 2010 and 2015, squeezed out in 2017 and still down in 4th place and sub-5% in 2019).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited December 2019
    Artist said:
    In fairness Pidcock did have the good grace to applaud and shake hands - unlike Dent Toad.
  • MimusMimus Posts: 56

    So Cummings call it right again

    Lots of people in London talking to each other but having no understanding of the rest of the country

    With all the crash and chaos of Boris' first few weeks, they had a strategy worked out. They called the politics right, the public were fed up with a remoaning parliament and have turfed the lot out. Almost every one of the egregious blockers have now gone.
  • Mimus said:

    So Cummings call it right again

    Lots of people in London talking to each other but having no understanding of the rest of the country

    With all the crash and chaos of Boris' first few weeks, they had a strategy worked out. They called the politics right, the public were fed up with a remoaning parliament and have turfed the lot out. Almost every one of the egregious blockers have now gone.
    They were gifted it. Why Labour and the Lib Dems agreed to an early election will be an enduring mystery. They should have left him dangling.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Quincel said:

    Did the Greens set up any plausible targets? Any double-digit rises or 20%+ results?

    Here's a quick review of the only seats they got above 5% in the 2017 election, starting with the ones they did best at in 2017. RA4G = "Remain Alliance, LDs stood down in favour of Greens" and RA4LD = "Remain Alliance, Greens stood down in favour of LDs"

    Isle of Wight 15.2% (2017: 17.3%, down 2.1%) going backwards despite RAforG, 3rd place, Tories got 56%

    Buckingham didn't stand, RA4LD who didn't win either (was 16.3% in 2017, obviously unusual circumstances vs speaker but even so the Greens gave up a prime seat here)

    Bristol West 24.9% (2017: 12.9%, up 12.0%) good 2nd place and added share, but Labour way ahead on 62% and Greens had benefit of RA4G

    Sheffield Central 9.0% (2017: 8.0%, up 0.9%) No RA, 3rd place, Labour on 67%

    Skipton and Ripon 4.7% (2017: 6.4%, down 1.7%) No RA, 4th place, Tories on 59%

    North Herefordshire 9.3% (2017: 5.5%, up 3.8% ) No RA, 4th place, Tories on 63%

    North East Hertfordshire 4.3% (2017: 5.3%, down 1.1%) No RA, 4th place, Tories on 57%

    Not really anything to write home about is it? If they'd added 10% on Isle of Wight, got to 27%, that would be interesting as a potential staging post. Went backwards in it. Bristol West they got a solid 2nd place but long way behind Lab.
    Man, that is weak. Basically praying that Bristol West works out for them somehow. They didn't do too badly in national vote share either (i.e. not down I think), must have been spread very thin.
  • JameiJamei Posts: 59
    McDonnell saying they won the policy arguments but couldn't quite win the Brexit argument.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Couple of hours kip.

    Delighted to see the SNP on 48 not 55 or 57 or 59 - and 6 Tories, whilst a disaster in one sense is drastically better than it looked at one point.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Hows the BXP v Green vote share contest looking?
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    Artist said:
    In fairness Pidcock did have the good grace to applaud and shake hands - unlike Dent Toad.
    Dent Coad was a crank, like Williamson. Drink on her own power and convinced of her moral right to rule, so defeat was always going to rankle.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    Couple of hours kip.

    Delighted to see the SNP on 48 not 55 or 57 or 59 - and 6 Tories, whilst a disaster in one sense is drastically better than it looked at one point.

    It's a disaster in the sense of me backing under 47.5.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Artist said:
    In fairness Pidcock did have the good grace to applaud and shake hands - unlike Dent Toad.
    I'd agree with that. Losing your seat and career on such a massive swing is very difficult, she shook hands with her fellow candidates and applauded the winner. The fact that she didn't decide to to perform for the peanut gallery shouldn't be held against her.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Hows the BXP v Green vote share contest looking?

    Greens have won, at least according to an Aaron Bastani tweet I saw quoting a Green press release. I don't think he literally made it up, but possible.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Jamei said:

    McDonnell saying they won the policy arguments but couldn't quite win the Brexit argument.

    Bollocks

    People will always love the idea of freebies. But they also know that things have to be paid for...

    So they lost the Brexit and economic arguments.

    Game over
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Quincel said:

    Hows the BXP v Green vote share contest looking?

    Greens have won, at least according to an Aaron Bastani tweet I saw quoting a Green press release. I don't think he literally made it up, but possible.
    Cheers. I got that one wrong then. But no money in the game.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Artist said:
    In fairness Pidcock did have the good grace to applaud and shake hands - unlike Dent Toad.
    Not only graceless. The failure to speak is a mark of their cowardly nature. The contrast with Jo Swinson speaks volumes.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Jamei said:

    McDonnell saying they won the policy arguments but couldn't quite win the Brexit argument.

    In a sense he's right. When Corbyn first became leader their biggest argument with the conventional wisdom was probably austeriy. They've won that one by and large, but not in a way which has paid electoral dividends. They didn't expect Brexit would come either. The austerity battle is no longer the main one for most voters.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Quincel said:

    Hows the BXP v Green vote share contest looking?

    Greens have won, at least according to an Aaron Bastani tweet I saw quoting a Green press release. I don't think he literally made it up, but possible.
    Cheers. I got that one wrong then. But no money in the game.
    I thought a Green vs SNP vs Brexit vote match would have been an interesting market and had to call. As it turns out SNP won fairly cleanly I imagine, and tbh I'd have guessed The Brexit Party to beat the Greens too.
  • Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    Did the Greens set up any plausible targets? Any double-digit rises or 20%+ results?

    ... Not really anything to write home about is it? If they'd added 10% on Isle of Wight, got to 27%, that would be interesting as a potential staging post. Went backwards in it. Bristol West they got a solid 2nd place but long way behind Lab.
    Man, that is weak. Basically praying that Bristol West works out for them somehow. They didn't do too badly in national vote share either (i.e. not down I think), must have been spread very thin.
    That was hard work to tally up, will be easier once people put out spreadsheets with the minor parties in!

    If you're going to win seats in parliament it's all about the efficiency I'm afraid. If you're going to influence politics just by being a safe way for voters to signal that the environment matters, and Green votes might make a difference in tight Tory-Lab seats, then that's still an effect of sorts. Think what UKIP achieved in their heyday by doing that.

    One thing that probably ought to worry you about the Green vote is when races get tight and the minor party votes get squeezed, promising positions just seem to evaporate. Bristol West looks like a half-decent shout in the long-run, with the Tories out of the running in it then the Greens needn't be the victims of anti-Tory tactical voting.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Jamei said:

    McDonnell saying they won the policy arguments but couldn't quite win the Brexit argument.

    Bollocks

    People will always love the idea of freebies. But they also know that things have to be paid for...

    So they lost the Brexit and economic arguments.

    Game over
    Perhaps, but the Tories campaigned on tax cuts and infrastructure spending and literally said 'Austerity is over' in public appearances. And while Labour were promising much higher spending it didn't seem to do the Tories much harm. The LD's promise of permanent budget surpluses hardly achieved much cut-through.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    In a triumph for the incumbent over the contender, I see that Buckethead trounced Binface.
  • Fantastic news to wake up to - Pidcock has lost her seat. Leamington and Warwick has re-elected Matt Western.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    2017 was a last chance for Labour in their old seats it seems now. People voted for the old familiar on spite of Corbyn and not because of and the more they saw of him the less they liked.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    So a somewhat sub-optimal result for Remain then? :D
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited December 2019
    No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

    Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

    Lovely.

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    GIN1138 said:

    So a somewhat sub-optimal result for Remain then? :D

    "The real fight starts now", as they say.

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/829436790763315207?lang=en
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    edited December 2019
    Very depressing, although I suppose the thought of no new Parliamentary election for a while is OK for the country, if sad for those of us who revel in these things.
    I've got the impression that, in the seats I saw declare anyway, the 'swing' to the Tories wasn't one; more like the Brexit Party took Labour votes.
    In other words, the old Methodism and Marx alliance which has sustained Labour over the years has broken down, with the Methodists wanting to go back to the past...... Britain alone.
  • MimusMimus Posts: 56

    No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

    Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

    Lovely.

    An incredible hangover cure.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

    Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

    Lovely.

    Why exactly does this result prevent any court cases taking place?
  • JameiJamei Posts: 59
    Next time we'll be talking swingback and focusing on the penultimate MRP
  • GIN1138 said:

    So a somewhat sub-optimal result for Remain then? :D

    The situation has developed etc etc
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    nunu2 said:

    Aaron!

    Artist said:
    That was an altogether more impressive speech than Pidcock’s maiden effort.
  • No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

    Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

    Lovely.

    Plain sailing for Brexit and then the next year in the transition period negotiating with the EU. Can't wait. It will be just like old times.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    So, if we count St. Ives as likely lost to the LDs, the Tory majority will be 78, and effectively 83 when accounting for Sinn Fein and speakers.

    Not bad, lads, not bad!
  • I demand a thread entitled 'Woe, Jeremy Corbyn'.
  • No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

    Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

    Lovely.

    Why exactly does this result prevent any court cases taking place?
    Get with the programme, grandad. You’re supposed to celebrate the silencing of dissenting voices and those seeking to protect constitutional order.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited December 2019
    I deliberately skipped Sky coverage to avoid Bercow, and I don't find Farage as amusing as many people seem to, but I'm sorry I missed this genuinely nice little moment between them!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPK2-dnsbDQ
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

    Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

    Lovely.

    It couldn’t have gone much better. All the months of obstruction from Bercow, the rebels and the opposition, the snobbery and superiority of the people’s vote bullshit and the threat of an anti semetic far left government has been eradicated overnight.

    Classic Dom.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Smug mode activated

    I said the LDs would win Ed West by more the East Dunbartonshire.

    Many said I was wrong. I was right.
  • No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

    Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

    Lovely.

    Why exactly does this result prevent any court cases taking place?
    The Conservative manifesto says they will reduce the power of the courts and availability of judicial review.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Brom said:

    No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

    Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

    Lovely.

    It couldn’t have gone much better. All the months of obstruction from Bercow, the rebels and the opposition, the snobbery and superiority of the people’s vote bullshit and the threat of an anti semetic far left government has been eradicated overnight.

    Classic Dom.
    The air smells sweeter this morning.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298

    Fantastic news to wake up to - Pidcock has lost her seat. Leamington and Warwick has re-elected Matt Western.

    Here's another bit of good news, I owe you £25 from a bet. DM to discuss payment method?
  • MimusMimus Posts: 56
    Still shocked by the Swinson defeat, she made the wrong call on Brexit, but I thought she was the bravest and most open leader in this election, even likeable and sympathetic in character by comparison. Yet she still got humiliated by her own constituency.

    Politics is brutal.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Jamei said:

    McDonnell saying they won the policy arguments but couldn't quite win the Brexit argument.

    No. They lost policy.

    But ultimately, and to a much greater extent than even I expected, what cut through and damaged Labour was the anti-semitism of its leadership. Although I said eighteen months ago when it first started to gain traction that it would hurt them, I didn’t anticipate it would hurt them this much.

    I think the problem was that it gained so much traction it crystallised other doubts - doubts about Corbyn’s integrity, doubts about his basic competence, doubts about his past, doubts about his understanding of politics. Ultimately, throughout this campaign he simply hasn’t been convincing anyone. The benefit of the doubt was gone.

    I don’t know whether @Gabs3 will be a bit easier today. I would suggest, not yet. The scandal affects all parties, and far too many ordinary people. But the fact people do care about such things enough to reject them is at least something to hang onto.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,605
    edited December 2019
    Why's it taking them so long to count the votes in the two safe Tory seats of Arundel and South Northants?

    Edit: Andrea Leadsom's result has just been announced.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000942
  • Brom said:

    No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

    Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

    Lovely.

    It couldn’t have gone much better. All the months of obstruction from Bercow, the rebels and the opposition, the snobbery and superiority of the people’s vote bullshit and the threat of an anti semetic far left government has been eradicated overnight.

    Classic Dom.
    Apparently he wargamed this.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    ydoethur said:

    Jamei said:

    McDonnell saying they won the policy arguments but couldn't quite win the Brexit argument.

    No. They lost policy.

    But ultimately, and to a much greater extent than even I expected, what cut through and damaged Labour was the anti-semitism of its leadership. Although I said eighteen months ago when it first started to gain traction that it would hurt them, I didn’t anticipate it would hurt them this much.

    I think the problem was that it gained so much traction it crystallised other doubts - doubts about Corbyn’s integrity, doubts about his basic competence, doubts about his past, doubts about his understanding of politics. Ultimately, throughout this campaign he simply hasn’t been convincing anyone. The benefit of the doubt was gone.

    I don’t know whether @Gabs3 will be a bit easier today. I would suggest, not yet. The scandal affects all parties, and far too many ordinary people. But the fact people do care about such things enough to reject them is at least something to hang onto.
    I suspect you are right that anti-semitism hurt them; it goes against everything that the party stood for, historically.
  • No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

    Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

    Lovely.

    Why exactly does this result prevent any court cases taking place?
    The Conservative manifesto says they will reduce the power of the courts and availability of judicial review.
    The courts will get to interpret those laws. They have been highly resistant to political attempts to restrict their role in the past. Should be an interesting battle if the government decides to fight it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

    Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

    Lovely.

    Why exactly does this result prevent any court cases taking place?
    because realistically a clear majority can pass any law it wants
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298

    Brom said:

    No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

    Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

    Lovely.

    It couldn’t have gone much better. All the months of obstruction from Bercow, the rebels and the opposition, the snobbery and superiority of the people’s vote bullshit and the threat of an anti semetic far left government has been eradicated overnight.

    Classic Dom.
    Apparently he wargamed this.
    Massive triumph for him personally. His strategy seems to have gone perfectly.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Brom said:

    No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

    Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

    Lovely.

    It couldn’t have gone much better. All the months of obstruction from Bercow, the rebels and the opposition, the snobbery and superiority of the people’s vote bullshit and the threat of an anti semetic far left government has been eradicated overnight.

    Classic Dom.
    That's a post to be cherished :smile:
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Shame the SNP did so well, but glad it doesn't seem as bad as the exit poll suggested.

    I got almost all my bets wrong. Quite a feat. I did have a saver on the Conservatives getting 6-10 in Scotland.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478

    No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

    Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

    Lovely.

    Why exactly does this result prevent any court cases taking place?
    The Conservative manifesto says they will reduce the power of the courts and availability of judicial review.
    The courts will get to interpret those laws. They have been highly resistant to political attempts to restrict their role in the past. Should be an interesting battle if the government decides to fight it.
    I suspect that, initially at any rate, this Government will.
  • rkrkrk said:

    Brom said:

    No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

    Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

    Lovely.

    It couldn’t have gone much better. All the months of obstruction from Bercow, the rebels and the opposition, the snobbery and superiority of the people’s vote bullshit and the threat of an anti semetic far left government has been eradicated overnight.

    Classic Dom.
    Apparently he wargamed this.
    Massive triumph for him personally. His strategy seems to have gone perfectly.
    Wait for the blog. Mind you it’ll take him a week to deliver 70,000 words.
  • Mimus said:

    Still shocked by the Swinson defeat, she made the wrong call on Brexit, but I thought she was the bravest and most open leader in this election, even likeable and sympathetic in character by comparison. Yet she still got humiliated by her own constituency.

    Politics is brutal.

    Swinson made the wrong call on Brexit, the wrong call on working with Labour, and even the wrong call, according to some, on her wardrobe. The LibDems need to learn from this and ensure their next leader spends their first couple of days locked in a room with the great and the good to determine positioning on all foreseeable questions, rather than getting locked into the first thing that pops into the leader's head when faced with a microphone.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Boris makes his victory speech in central London
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298

    rkrkrk said:

    Brom said:

    No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

    Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

    Lovely.

    It couldn’t have gone much better. All the months of obstruction from Bercow, the rebels and the opposition, the snobbery and superiority of the people’s vote bullshit and the threat of an anti semetic far left government has been eradicated overnight.

    Classic Dom.
    Apparently he wargamed this.
    Massive triumph for him personally. His strategy seems to have gone perfectly.
    Wait for the blog. Mind you it’ll take him a week to deliver 70,000 words.
    I sort of imagine he writes the 70k posts in one sitting between 2 and 6 am.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Important reminder: the Andrew Neil chair tweet now has 7.5 million views.

    This will matter a lot because ... something.
  • Whats the smallest majority (in terms of vote numbers )?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478

    Mimus said:

    Still shocked by the Swinson defeat, she made the wrong call on Brexit, but I thought she was the bravest and most open leader in this election, even likeable and sympathetic in character by comparison. Yet she still got humiliated by her own constituency.

    Politics is brutal.

    Swinson made the wrong call on Brexit, the wrong call on working with Labour, and even the wrong call, according to some, on her wardrobe. The LibDems need to learn from this and ensure their next leader spends their first couple of days locked in a room with the great and the good to determine positioning on all foreseeable questions, rather than getting locked into the first thing that pops into the leader's head when faced with a microphone.
    Swinson was unlucky in becoming Leader only weeks before a political crisis.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    I think a poll a few days ago had support for independence on 45pc and SNP on 37pc. Or something similar. Looks like the 8pc read their manifesto in the meantime .
  • HYUFD said:

    Boris makes his victory speech in central London

    A new dusk has broken.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816
    edited December 2019
    Glad the tories won obviously but in 3 seats i wish they hadn't (or in case of birkenhead wish labour hadnt) due to other better candidates - Finchley , Ashfield (the indie) and Birkenhead (Frank Field)-
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    edited December 2019

    Whats the smallest majority (in terms of vote numbers )?

    Smallest I saw were a couple around 150 (including Swinson loss), must be some smaller...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    rkrkrk said:

    Brom said:

    No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

    Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

    Lovely.

    It couldn’t have gone much better. All the months of obstruction from Bercow, the rebels and the opposition, the snobbery and superiority of the people’s vote bullshit and the threat of an anti semetic far left government has been eradicated overnight.

    Classic Dom.
    Apparently he wargamed this.
    Massive triumph for him personally. His strategy seems to have gone perfectly.
    In England and Wales, yes.

    But it is a very Cummings style victory, in the sense that he has won a short-term victory at the expense of his longer term strategic goals.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Glad the tories won obviously but in 3 seats i wish they hadn't due to other better candidates - Finchley , Ashfield (the indie) and Birkenhead (Frank Field)

    I think one of those wishes as granted. The Tories did not win Birkenhead.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    Did the Greens set up any plausible targets? Any double-digit rises or 20%+ results?

    Congrats on ur fantasy team. Top of everyone last time I checked.
    Thanks! I thought 200k points was a tough target but virtually everything went right for me.
    Don't get too comfortable. I can overtake you if Andrew George gets a majority over 30,000...

    Congrats and well played!
  • ydoethur said:

    Glad the tories won obviously but in 3 seats i wish they hadn't due to other better candidates - Finchley , Ashfield (the indie) and Birkenhead (Frank Field)

    I think one of those wishes as granted. The Tories did not win Birkenhead.
    its been a long night!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    edited December 2019
    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Brom said:

    No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

    Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

    Lovely.

    It couldn’t have gone much better. All the months of obstruction from Bercow, the rebels and the opposition, the snobbery and superiority of the people’s vote bullshit and the threat of an anti semetic far left government has been eradicated overnight.

    Classic Dom.
    Apparently he wargamed this.
    Massive triumph for him personally. His strategy seems to have gone perfectly.
    In England and Wales, yes.

    But it is a very Cummings style victory, in the sense that he has won a short-term victory at the expense of his longer term strategic goals.
    Um... he's just won a majority which makes it likely the Conservatives will be in power for another decade, and certainly for the next 5 years.

    {edit to be concise}

    All of his longer-term strategic goals will be helped by a significant majority.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,718

    So Cummings call it right again

    Lots of people in London talking to each other but having no understanding of the rest of the country

    The use of 'the country' as a euphemism for England has to end.
  • Why? From this point he can do pretty much as he pleases.
  • Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    So Cummings call it right again

    Lots of people in London talking to each other but having no understanding of the rest of the country

    The use of 'the country' as a euphemism for England has to end.
    England and Wales.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298

    Mimus said:

    Still shocked by the Swinson defeat, she made the wrong call on Brexit, but I thought she was the bravest and most open leader in this election, even likeable and sympathetic in character by comparison. Yet she still got humiliated by her own constituency.

    Politics is brutal.

    Swinson made the wrong call on Brexit, the wrong call on working with Labour, and even the wrong call, according to some, on her wardrobe. The LibDems need to learn from this and ensure their next leader spends their first couple of days locked in a room with the great and the good to determine positioning on all foreseeable questions, rather than getting locked into the first thing that pops into the leader's head when faced with a microphone.
    More generally Lab and LD have to learn to work together. Attacking each other just helps the Tories I think.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    So Cummings call it right again

    Lots of people in London talking to each other but having no understanding of the rest of the country

    The use of 'the country' as a euphemism for England has to end.
    my country is the UK

    yours is Grossdeutschland
  • Important reminder: the Andrew Neil chair tweet now has 7.5 million views.

    This will matter a lot because ... something.

    I understand the empty chair thng when somebody is ducking away from a leaders debate but its very arrogant of an intervewer or TV station to think that a leader HAS to be interviewed by them. as though its electoral law or something. Leaders are allowed to manage their own campaign!

    Also Andrew Neil is a cynical self important interviewer . Not sure why he is thought of any as good. Prefer Marr and certianly Paxman!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    wanker of a quote

    his consitituency is in London as is the seat of government
  • Important reminder: the Andrew Neil chair tweet now has 7.5 million views.

    This will matter a lot because ... something.

    I understand the empty chair thng when somebody is ducking away from a leaders debate but its very arrogant of an intervewer or TV station to think that a leader HAS to be interviewed by them. as though its electoral law or something. Leaders are allowed to manage their own campaign!

    Also Andrew Neil is a cynical self important interviewer . Not sure why he is thought of any as good. Prefer Marr and certianly Paxman!
    Well he’s not going to get Tories to interview this Parliament, which is a shame as I do rate him. Also Channel 4 can presumably look forward to being sold.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited December 2019
    Boris arrives back in No 10 with Carrie with the biggest majority since Blair and as the most powerful Tory PM since Thatcher
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,718

    So Cummings call it right again

    Lots of people in London talking to each other but having no understanding of the rest of the country

    The use of 'the country' as a euphemism for England has to end.
    my country is the UK

    yours is Grossdeutschland
    My country is England. You’re welcome as a fellow European.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    HYUFD said:

    Boris arrives back in No 10 with Carrie with the biggest majority since Blair and as the most powerful Tory PM since Thatcher

    Good innit? 😁
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    rkrkrk said:

    Mimus said:

    Still shocked by the Swinson defeat, she made the wrong call on Brexit, but I thought she was the bravest and most open leader in this election, even likeable and sympathetic in character by comparison. Yet she still got humiliated by her own constituency.

    Politics is brutal.

    Swinson made the wrong call on Brexit, the wrong call on working with Labour, and even the wrong call, according to some, on her wardrobe. The LibDems need to learn from this and ensure their next leader spends their first couple of days locked in a room with the great and the good to determine positioning on all foreseeable questions, rather than getting locked into the first thing that pops into the leader's head when faced with a microphone.
    More generally Lab and LD have to learn to work together. Attacking each other just helps the Tories I think.
    Only going to be possible if the Corbynites are ousted.
  • wanker of a quote

    his consitituency is in London as is the seat of government
    Also the north dont like show-offs so probably wise to be grateful for the vote and play down a victory rally by having it in the neutral space of central london
This discussion has been closed.