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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s quitting but not quite yet as Blair’s old seat goes t

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    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,312
    speedy2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    speedy2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Do Labour not think this "the evil Tories, what about the homeless yadda yadda yadda"...basically you are telling voters you were wrong, you are heartless for voting for the other team.

    Blair won on slogans like "tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime" and "education, education, education".
    Bland slogans, anyone could have won in 1997.
    Who could have won in 1987 is the more propper question ?
    Corbyn and McDonnell wouldn't have won in 1997.
    Against Major after the post 1992 mess ?
    They almost beat May under better conditions for the Consevatives.
    They could have beaten May in an election now.
    That was a different age. JC and JMD have benefitted from social media in a way they couldn't have done then. TB was just continuation tory for the first term.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,287
    Couldn’t happen to a nicer racist bastard.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Ah, remain splits in Kensington letting the Tories in. Wonderful!
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    What is the point of Peston...he has just manage to totally incorrectly describe the polling situation over the course of the campaign.

    It's very early in the morning, no one has got much sleep, no one is thinking 100% clearly.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Corby Con hold
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    ydoethur said:

    Couldn’t happen to a nicer racist bastard.
    I was longing for this prick to be utterly humiliated. Superb.
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    humbugger said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, just noticed that Aaron Bell was elected. Well done Sir, PB's new MP!

    Great news for Aaron and PB.
    Congratulations Tissue Price!
    Oooh, he's in my fantasy football team! Well done, Aaron.
    one of our league (quincel?) is second overall. nice job.
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    A thought:

    Did we ever think when we saw Boris Johnson bumbling through his appearances on Have I Got News For You that he would one day be the Tory leader who would deliver their biggest majority since Thatcher?
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    Oops. Up for three quarters of an hour on pb and only just remembered it's on telly.
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    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Aaron!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    DCT hold
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    tlg86 said:

    speedy2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    speedy2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Do Labour not think this "the evil Tories, what about the homeless yadda yadda yadda"...basically you are telling voters you were wrong, you are heartless for voting for the other team.

    Blair won on slogans like "tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime" and "education, education, education".
    Bland slogans, anyone could have won in 1997.
    Who could have won in 1987 is the more propper question ?
    Corbyn and McDonnell wouldn't have won in 1997.
    Against Major after the post 1992 mess ?
    They almost beat May under better conditions for the Consevatives.
    They could have beaten May in an election now.
    In 1997 many more people had memories of the 1970s. That's why it took someone like Blair to seal the deal. I'd say 2017 was the perfect storm for Corbyn and McDonnell.
    Labour were leading massively since late 1992 before Blair took over.
    The Conservatives were disintegrating over scandals, europe, economic mismanagement and leadership.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    I don't like to be premature, but I'm now prepared to accept that there is the slight possibility that this is not 2017 again.

    And being serious, I would never have predicted that if there was a big majority, which was certainly looking possible, it would be down to the Red Wall being crumbly enough that a crappy outcome in Scotland was overcome.

    Like many others I am very concerned about the Union - I had thought at least one positive of a big majority would be the SNP not having a very very good night.
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    ITV just showed a really good graphic on the Exit Poll...basically incredibly accurate, even on a seat by seat basis.
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    Barnet are frigging useless... not a single result yet from F&GG, Hendon or Chipping Barnet
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    ITN predicting

    Cons 359
    Labour 203
    LD 12
    SNP 53
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    ITV just showed a really good graphic on the Exit Poll...basically incredibly accurate, even on a seat by seat basis.

    Curtice picking his dukedom as we speak.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,685
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    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    A thought:

    Did we ever think when we saw Boris Johnson bumbling through his appearances on Have I Got News For You that he would one day be the Tory leader who would deliver their biggest majority since Thatcher?

    The authors of this book must be feeling pretty stupid right about now...

    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13160423-prime-minister-boris-and-other-things-that-never-happened
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    Floater said:

    Grimsby - that swing!!!!!!

    All about immigration.
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    All three Scottish borders seats hold for the Tories.

    Tory Scottish seat total up to FOUR.
    Fab. That means I win the £400 bet I put on earlier at snp under 55.5 seats !
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    OK goodnight all

    TY to TSE and other moderators and all participators!

    :lol:
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Con hold Cheltenham
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Laura Trott enters the Commons as the MP for Sevenoaks.
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    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    If Boris has any sense ( debatable ) he'll scrap the FTPA and push through boundary changes asap.

    A lot of Tory seats with pretty small electorates now. Political impact of boundary changes very different.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    HYUFD said:

    Corby Con hold

    Another Midlands marginal that isn't very marginal any more.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,004

    ITN predicting

    Cons 359
    Labour 203
    LD 12
    SNP 53

    The LD number could still be 10... or 16. Many of the LDs tightest holds are still to declare, as are their best prospects.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    Claire Wright nowhere near.
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    SCon take Aberdeenshire West.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    edited December 2019

    SCon take Aberdeenshire West.

    :open_mouth:

    a gain?

    no, a hold. :D
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    Edinburgh West: LD hold.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    We did better in Totnes than I had expected - 12,700 majority versus my 8,888 sweepstake entry. That said, we really worked hard to find our vote in a constituency that covers 250 sq. miles.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Cons HOLD Aberdeenshire West!!!!
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    Gina on BBC. This should be good....
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    That awful Corbynite that had to be re-interviewed in Coventry South gets elected.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798

    ITN predicting

    Cons 359
    Labour 203
    LD 12
    SNP 53

    Sub 200 would be more symbolically cutting for Labour, which they likely need at this point.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    Cons HOLD Aberdeenshire West!!!!

    Tory Scottish seats up to FIVE.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934
    Ruth needs 2 more non snp seats! Banff and orkney!!
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    kle4 said:

    I don't like to be premature, but I'm now prepared to accept that there is the slight possibility that this is not 2017 again.

    And being serious, I would never have predicted that if there was a big majority, which was certainly looking possible, it would be down to the Red Wall being crumbly enough that a crappy outcome in Scotland was overcome.

    Like many others I am very concerned about the Union - I had thought at least one positive of a big majority would be the SNP not having a very very good night.

    In the past 3 elections when the Consevatives are popular in England and Wales they are unpopular in Scotland and vice versa.
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    We did better in Totnes than I had expected - 12,700 majority versus my 8,888 sweepstake entry. That said, we really worked hard to find our vote in a constituency that covers 250 sq. miles.

    cheers for the reports from there Mark. I got on early at 11/8 partly thanks to your information.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,004

    Edinburgh West: LD hold.

    Woah.

    Didn't expect that. I thought that was by far the most vulnerable LD seat in Scotland.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    I see the independent in East Devon failed, again, as I predicted. No-one left to squeeze.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Artist said:

    That awful Corbynite that had to be re-interviewed in Coventry South gets elected.

    Such a shame, Corbyn riddled the party with these awful MPs
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    HYUFD said:
    Bah, it was down to 4 votes in 2010 between SF and a unity Unionist candidate, 20 is huge.

    All three Scottish borders seats hold for the Tories.

    Tory Scottish seat total up to FOUR.
    About what I thought they'd get at the start of the campaign, but the regional polls, such as they were, looked pretty decent for non-SNP. Alas, not the case.
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    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Quite a lot of Tory women being elected? “No hope” seats the place to be?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    We did better in Totnes than I had expected - 12,700 majority versus my 8,888 sweepstake entry. That said, we really worked hard to find our vote in a constituency that covers 250 sq. miles.

    cheers for the reports from there Mark. I got on early at 11/8 partly thanks to your information.
    All part of the service!
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    rcs1000 said:

    Edinburgh West: LD hold.

    Woah.

    Didn't expect that. I thought that was by far the most vulnerable LD seat in Scotland.
    I'd heard it was going SNP, but Tories and Lab tactical vote has saved Jardine there.
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    We did better in Totnes than I had expected - 12,700 majority versus my 8,888 sweepstake entry. That said, we really worked hard to find our vote in a constituency that covers 250 sq. miles.

    Well done Marquee for all your feed back. Thank you
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    ITV reporting the Tories have won in Finchley.
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    Con hold Finchley.
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    Gina thinks we won't leave on 31 January.

    I want what she's drinking
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    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 708
    rcs1000 said:

    ITN predicting

    Cons 359
    Labour 203
    LD 12
    SNP 53

    The LD number could still be 10... or 16. Many of the LDs tightest holds are still to declare, as are their best prospects.
    We may have to wait a long time for St Ives, my seat. Back in 2017 it was lunchtime IIRC, in 2015 teatime Friday.
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    Hear Luciana hasn't made it in F & GG.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Artist said:

    That awful Corbynite that had to be re-interviewed in Coventry South gets elected.

    I was so hoping she would lose. But she is someone to point to that Labour is still not worthy of being elected.
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Vote share is:
    CON 44
    LAB 33
    LD 11

    UNS
    CON 357
    LAB 214
    LD 18

    UNS is again very reliable.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    Gina thinks we won't leave on 31 January.

    I want what she's drinking

    They've lost. Finally.
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    BBC have Lab on 199. Please stay there, symbolically I'd love them to be <200
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,004
    Well, there are two more SNP gains from the LD they're "expecting" from the exit poll: CS&ER and O&S. The first is probably odds on for them, the second is - I suspect - unlikely.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    Hear Luciana hasn't made it in F & GG.

    Ed Davey will be Lib Dem leader.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Peston really is a bitter bastard.
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    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    We did better in Totnes than I had expected - 12,700 majority versus my 8,888 sweepstake entry. That said, we really worked hard to find our vote in a constituency that covers 250 sq. miles.

    Congratulations and thanks for all your hard work!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2019
    Peston banging on about Kiwi Shitsters twitter stunts again...they don't get it, the public don't give a shit about twitter.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    speedy2 said:

    Vote share is:
    CON 44
    LAB 33
    LD 11

    UNS
    CON 357
    LAB 214
    LD 18

    UNS is again very reliable.

    MRP a waste of money? :p
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    326! Majority!!!!!!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    I look forwarf to a huge number of MPs who quickly work to get wikipedia pages, which are presently just blank, like this chap
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Grundy_(politician)

    Hear Luciana hasn't made it in F & GG.

    Shame. She has taken huge amounts of crap and did not deserve it.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,685
    Only 6 Labour seats to come according to the BBC. Currently on 193, expected to get 199.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    Vine just forecast SNP 52.

    That is impossible - already Con 5, LD 2, Lab 1

    So max SNP 51 if win all rest
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    Hear Luciana hasn't made it in F & GG.

    Luciana should have stayed and fought in Liverpool.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,004

    Hear Luciana hasn't made it in F & GG.

    Boo. I always liked her.

    The irony is that, if her constituents had known the likely result in the rest of the country, she would probably have been elected with a decent majority.
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    Best Tory share since 1970.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    326! Majority!!!!!!

    How long has it been since the words "Hung parliament" have been uttered on here?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190

    BBC have Lab on 199. Please stay there, symbolically I'd love them to be <200</p>

    This result is going to mirror 2005 in terms of seats, though certainly not in terms of vote share.
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    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    So... what happens if the European Parliament reject the Withdrawal Agreement? Is this a possibility anyone has considered?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798

    Peston banging on about Kiwi Shitsters twitter stunts again...they don't get it, the public don't give a shit about twitter.

    Is his complaint that stupid twitter stunts supposedly work? Because if that's the case I think he's angry at the wrong people.
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    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    People have voted tactically. They have not tactically voted. God this is painful to listen to.

    Meanwhile, Lord Mann is truly excellent.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,685
    As in 2017, the first version of the YouGov MRP was pretty good.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    Only 6 Labour seats to come according to the BBC. Currently on 193, expected to get 199.


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    humbugger said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, just noticed that Aaron Bell was elected. Well done Sir, PB's new MP!

    Great news for Aaron and PB.
    Congratulations Tissue Price!
    Oooh, he's in my fantasy football team! Well done, Aaron.
    Pb gains an MP but loses a bookmaker. Swings and roundabouts. Well done, TP.
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    Andy_JS said:

    Only 6 Labour seats to come according to the BBC. Currently on 193, expected to get 199.

    but ITV saying 203
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    tlg86 said:

    Peston really is a bitter bastard.

    And consistently wrong in his analysis every day of the past couple of years.
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    Peston banging on about Kiwi Shitsters twitter stunts again...they don't get it, the public don't give a shit about twitter.

    The Corbynistas need to learn what the Yessers had to learn the hard way in 2014. Twitter is a bubble. Your pals voted Yes, but your parents didn't.

    They hit the pavements, and the SNP got 56/59 at the next election.

    It's won in the ground game, and you need to know your stuff. You can't just descend with a rent a crowd, and run about like headless chickens.
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    speedy2 said:

    Vote share is:
    CON 44
    LAB 33
    LD 11

    UNS
    CON 357
    LAB 214
    LD 18

    UNS is again very reliable.

    MRP a waste of money? :p
    If you can know the vote share accurately, UNS is very usefull to know the number of seats.

    MRP in theory gives you which seats are going to change hands and the number of seats.
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    Hear Luciana hasn't made it in F & GG.

    Luciana should have stayed and fought in Liverpool.
    I liked Luciana but the MP she was trying to displace was decent as well.
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    tlg86 said:

    Peston really is a bitter bastard.

    He's gutted, eh?

    Another over rated hack. His show is unwatchable.
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    alex_ said:

    So... what happens if the European Parliament reject the Withdrawal Agreement? Is this a possibility anyone has considered?

    It won't.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    Berger wasn't close in the end.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,315
    edited December 2019
    Boris wins the election and is Prime Minister

    Passed 326 seats
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    Boris wins the election and is Prime Minister

    326 seats

    Yay
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898

    Hear Luciana hasn't made it in F & GG.

    That would be a shame, the one defector I really wanted to see win a seat.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Con GAIN Dagenham & Rainham.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Coventry Northwest will be close
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2019
    Andrew said:
    He missed Sqwawkbox, Evolve, Rachael Swindon.....
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    CON HOLD BANFF & BUCHAN
This discussion has been closed.