politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2019 polling race: The pollsters ranked by the CON lead
Comments
-
Heard on Twitter the Russians are going to launch a major cyber attack on the UK internet at 9.59 after they get their bets on at the last minute, it must be true because you heard it here0
-
Oh dear, can someone poke the hamster?0
-
God spare us from Conservatives who, fresh from a referendum campaign on Brexit won by scaring people with untrue stories that millions of Muslims were poised to descend on Britain and are backing for Prime Minister a man who sought to suspend democracy to impose a mandateless policy with enduring consequences on the country and who concluded his election campaign with a posh man’s version of “send the immigrants home”, worry about the ethical credentials of their opponents.1
-
Perhaps. There are only a handful of campus towns not already in Labour hands, though.WhisperingOracle said:
Could be a kicking in the north, and a massive boost in the campuses and campus towns, and London.RochdalePioneers said:Looking at the breakdown of the polling stations I've seen I think Labour are going to get a kicking. Off out to see some more in half an hour...
The university towns have swung to Labour in 2010 and 2015 and 2017 already, as memories of the Iraq war receded.0 -
Why should it be silenced?tyson said:
Can you just zip it with anti semite stuff for one second..Byronic said:
Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.Gabs3 said:How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
That's the only conclusion.
Corbyn has dealt terribly with it badly
All those lefties that were outraged by the Farage poster endlessly screaming racism are now happy to vote for Corbyn's Labour party.
Could anyone make that up?2 -
From the MRP Labour are expected to do very well in seats like this:WhisperingOracle said:
Could be a kicking in the north, and a massive boost in the campuses and campus towns, and London.RochdalePioneers said:Looking at the breakdown of the polling stations I've seen I think Labour are going to get a kicking. Off out to see some more in half an hour...
Putney
Chipping Barnet
Canterbury
Portsmouth South
Bristol NW
Cambridge
Leeds NW
Reading East
Wirral West1 -
https://www.twitter.com/lucianaberger/status/1205097181486747648
Of course they want to go out their way to ensure the Jew doesn't get elected...0 -
nichomar said:
Where are you I made up the spare bed and bought an extra bottle of cordoniu to celebrate the election resultsAve_it said:At 9pm you will get the Ave it prediction!
It's currently the subject of a plausibility review by Curtice!nichomar said:
Where are you I made up the spare bed and bought an extra bottle of cordoniu to celebrate the election resultsAve_it said:At 9pm you will get the Ave it prediction!
It's currently the subject of a plausibility review by Curtice!
Hello Nichomarnichomar said:
Where are you I made up the spare bed and bought an extra bottle of cordoniu to celebrate the election resultsAve_it said:At 9pm you will get the Ave it prediction!
It's currently the subject of a plausibility review by Curtice!
At home in London at the moment! But I have Ryanair.com and easyjet.com up in case Corbyn wins and I have to move to Spain to rent a room off you!0 -
Or a good source at Google HQ.TheScreamingEagles said:
You'd need tellers in every polling station providing live time information to get that kind of detail.RobD said:
There's no way canvasing tallies are that precise. Is there any net gain in information by posting tweets from this account?CorrectHorseBattery said:
0 -
NorthofStoke said:
True of some but there is a total unconscious blocking of the reality of the LP leadership in the case of many. In some ways it is more frightening in that I don't know what can be done but in other ways less frightening because the scales must drop eventually. The evidence about Corbyn and antisemitism and his support for repressive regimes and vile terrorists is overwhelming but some will not see.Byronic said:
Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.Gabs3 said:How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
That's the only conclusion.NorthofStoke said:
True of some but there is a total unconscious blocking of the reality of the LP leadership in the case of many. In some ways it is more frightening in that I don't know what can be done but in other ways less frightening because the scales must drop eventually. The evidence about Corbyn and antisemitism and his support for repressive regimes and vile terrorists is overwhelming but some will not see.Byronic said:
Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.Gabs3 said:How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
That's the only conclusion.
Yebbut there is no evidence of Pablo Escobar personally dealing cocaine.NorthofStoke said:
True of some but there is a total unconscious blocking of the reality of the LP leadership in the case of many. In some ways it is more frightening in that I don't know what can be done but in other ways less frightening because the scales must drop eventually. The evidence about Corbyn and antisemitism and his support for repressive regimes and vile terrorists is overwhelming but some will not see.Byronic said:
Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.Gabs3 said:How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
That's the only conclusion.
I am baffled by the whining about Corbyn not being personally anti semitic. It suggests there are values of x for which Corbyn being xly anti semitic is perfectly fine and dandy. What are these values?1 -
Anyone else having issues loading the site?0
-
Tory Fibs is putting out a lot of fibs of his own, like knowing that a particular constituency is hinging on 10 votes at the moment.0
-
Yebbut there is no evidence of Pablo Escobar personally dealing cocaine.NorthofStoke said:
True of some but there is a total unconscious blocking of the reality of the LP leadership in the case of many. In some ways it is more frightening in that I don't know what can be done but in other ways less frightening because the scales must drop eventually. The evidence about Corbyn and antisemitism and his support for repressive regimes and vile terrorists is overwhelming but some will not see.Byronic said:
Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.Gabs3 said:How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
That's the only conclusion.
I am baffled by the whining about Corbyn not being personally anti semitic. It suggests there are values of x for which Corbyn being xly anti semitic is perfectly fine and dandy. What are these values?0 -
Yes, the hamster is tired.ydoethur said:Anyone else having issues loading the site?
0 -
So anecdote from Hampshire constituency. Just voted Lib Dem.
Busier than I’ve ever seen it but it’s usually dead so what do I know!0 -
Last night at a Corbyn rally they were chantingalgarkirk said:
And me, and millions more who admire and respect the Jewish community.Gabs3 said:How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
“from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free”,
the genocidal promise of Hamas to drive out the Jews from Israel/Palestine.
Strange that the only war the "stop the war " lot ever seem to want is against Israel
Strange that
Remind me of their past and current leadership again?0 -
All set for the evening!
1 -
They were 4 points behind in 2017, reasonable for Labour to campaign there. You could write a very long book about antisemetism in the Labour, don't need to get the tinfoil hats out as well.Gabs3 said:https://www.twitter.com/lucianaberger/status/1205097181486747648
Of course they want to go out their way to ensure the Jew doesn't get elected...0 -
Yep - this bad boy might not be able to take the load later... is there a plan B?brokenwheel said:
Yes, hamster is tired.ydoethur said:Anyone else having issues loading the site?
0 -
For pity's sake give it a restGabs3 said:
I am coming to the conclusion I will need to emigrate im the next decade or so. These people will become the majority sooner or later.Byronic said:
Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.Gabs3 said:How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
That's the only conclusion.0 -
All set for the evening!
1 -
Brace0
-
Give it some Weetabix.brokenwheel said:
Yes, hamster is tired.ydoethur said:Anyone else having issues loading the site?
0 -
Everyone worries about the ethical credentials of their opponents.AlastairMeeks said:God spare us from Conservatives who, fresh from a referendum campaign on Brexit won by scaring people with untrue stories that millions of Muslims were poised to descend on Britain and are backing for Prime Minister a man who sought to suspend democracy to impose a mandateless policy with enduring consequences on the country and who concluded his election campaign with a posh man’s version of “send the immigrants home”, worry about the ethical credentials of their opponents.
0 -
Yep - this bad boy might not be able to take the load later... is there a plan B?brokenwheel said:
Yes, hamster is tired.ydoethur said:Anyone else having issues loading the site?
0 -
Passed 3 polling places whilst driving home. Turnout looked brisk.0
-
Brace0
-
They were 4 points behind in 2017, reasonable for Labour to campaign there. You could write a very long book about antisemetism in the Labour, don't need to get the tinfoil hats out as well.Gabs3 said:https://www.twitter.com/lucianaberger/status/1205097181486747648
Of course they want to go out their way to ensure the Jew doesn't get elected...0 -
So anecdote from Hampshire constituency. Just voted Lib Dem.
Busier than I’ve ever seen it but it’s usually dead so what do I know!0 -
So anecdote from Hampshire constituency. Just voted Lib Dem.
Busier than I’ve ever seen it but it’s usually dead so what do I know!0 -
We back?0
-
And we are back. Was worried then.0
-
I think we're back.0
-
And we are back. Was worried then.0
-
Brace0
-
Passed 3 polling places whilst driving home. Turnout looked brisk.0
-
Testicle.0
-
OMG IT'S ALIIIIVE0
-
We back?
0 -
Hooray! Anyone actually think Boris in trouble? Sky News Australia only source0
-
PB better stand up to tonight's immense strain, it's like a hand holding mine through the stresses of the night.2
-
You crashed PB with this post.TheValiant said:All set for the evening!
4 -
That was hell!1
-
PB down and it's now 1.41
Coincidence?0 -
Betfair Con Majority now down to 1.410
-
Betfair feeling better about a Con majority0
-
And, we're back.
Pidders defenestration rumours intensify on Twitter.0 -
Ah - we're back.0
-
First PM from the Lords in fifty+ years confirmed!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I was only joking about a Russian cyber attack honest0
-
Thank god for that, I didn't particularly want to spend the evening and night on Twitter.2
-
These so called info from the campaigns is often total hogwash . Done to force others to redirect campaign resources to where they’ll be wasted .
On a different issue did anyone see the astonishing bias from Vicky Young today on the BBC, saying Johnson deserved a majority .
The BBC have lost a lot of credibility in this election .0 -
Can activists tell me if that sort of thing actually makes any difference?brokenwheel said:0 -
What is everybody drinking tonight?
Just dropped my wife off to vote in Rushcliffe (I voted this morning) -Turnout high in this rare remain northern(ish) seat. No Ken Clarke this time who had a big personal vote.
Wife reported that they handed her an unfolded ballot paper0 -
Just been running round Mosborough and Killamarsh, turnout brisk in Killamarsh0
-
Not sure what Lib Dem vote there was to collapse, they lost their deposit in 2017!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Can I suggest that ONLY a Mod posts the exit poll? 82 smart arses trying to post it first is not good for the site.....4
-
Much as I am right on board with that rumour, the LD vote share last time was just under 4%, so it's collapse isn't that exciting.Brom said:Hooray! Anyone actually think Boris in trouble? Sky News Australia only source
0 -
Just did the democratic duty in Alyn & Deeside.
It was absolutely heaving compared to normal. 6 people in there with me. Never ever seen that before. Could this mean something seismic?*
*er no, because I normally vote on my own at 7am.2 -
But what if I miss it?MarqueeMark said:Can I suggest that ONLY a Mod posts the exit poll? 82 smart arses trying to post it first is not good for the site.....
0 -
Yes, but it can take some time before you get to that point.RochdalePioneers said:
Once the count is well under way its pretty simple. Walk up and down looking at tables. You can see who is ahead.KeithJenner said:
Absolutely.Andy_JS said:
Completely agree. Even people at the count at 2 in the morning don't always know what's going on, after they've already been counting votes for 4 hours.nichomar said:I’ve been involved in elections since 1983 and have never ever know what was going on anywhere than in the patch that my committee room covered and that was open to interpretation. I doubt if anyone really knows what’s happening and all these stories are complete and utter bollocks. They help pass the time away but get real nobody really knows
It's entertaining to read all the rumours and gossip but they mean very little.
In 2010 I was at the count for Penistone & Stocksbridge updating the spreadsheet with the test counts for the Tories. We didn’t have any previous count data, so there was some guesswork (I’d calculated targets from canvassing data). At about 2am I couldn’t call it for sure, although thought we’d probably lost. Labour, who would have had far better data than us, looked really panicked which was giving me some hope,
They won by 3,000 votes.
0 -
So anecdote from Hampshire constituency. Just voted Lib Dem.
Busier than I’ve ever seen it but it’s usually dead so what do I know!0 -
Been out....Turn out very large...for Christmas parties that is.0
-
There'll be a new thread at 10pm with the exit poll.MarqueeMark said:Can I suggest that ONLY a Mod posts the exit poll? 82 smart arses trying to post it first is not good for the site.....
0 -
We will find out soon.Mysticrose said:
If the Conservatives win Sunderland Central they have won the election.
If not, then look at the swing in Swindon.0 -
The sidesplitter would be him losing by one vote, having voted himself in Westminster!TheScreamingEagles said:2 -
Hello, hello. Are you still there?
Time to go anyway, just before the PB victory lap begins. Before that they will panic and I will be encouraged, and then BONG Boris Johnson set for a landslide majority.0 -
More rumours about Pidcock, hrrrm. Still dubious here.0
-
Less than two hours until The Big Bong!
0 -
Absolutely disgraceful waste of pineappleRobD said:0 -
One thing that really worries me is I've followed this election pretty closely and now I try to think back I can barely remember a single conservative policy (other than, of course "get Brexit done" - which is really more of an aspiration than a policy at this point).
On the other hand I can remember dozens of Labour ones. From free internet to the WASPI pledge to cutting fares for commuters to taxing those earning over 80k.
What I'm saying is that Labour have given people something to vote for. The Tories have not.
If the Tories scrape home narrowly tonight the spectre of Corbynism will remain. I just don't think they've done enough to discredit it. And Labour may well get lucky next time round.0 -
Great idea Mark.RobD said:
But what if I miss it?MarqueeMark said:Can I suggest that ONLY a Mod posts the exit poll? 82 smart arses trying to post it first is not good for the site.....
But please can we also avoid 82 posts in the final 10 minutes asking people to leave the Exit Poll to a mod?0 -
2
-
The Betfair markets i'm monitoring are out of sync again.
0 -
That reminds me of the candidate in the locals the other year that got 0 votes....he didn't even remember to vote for himself.Foxy said:
The sidesplitter would be him losing by one vote, having voted himself in Westminster!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Had a Truman Show experience when site went down. The real world came into view. 😜3
-
Can somebody remind me of a typical Leave seat to look out for early on, which will give an indication of how the Tories are doing?0
-
Stoke Newington.CorrectHorseBattery said:Can somebody remind me of a typical Leave seat to look out for early on, which will give an indication of how the Tories are doing?
1 -
Workington?CorrectHorseBattery said:Can somebody remind me of a typical Leave seat to look out for early on, which will give an indication of how the Tories are doing?
0 -
If only there was a spreadsheet that showed that...CorrectHorseBattery said:Can somebody remind me of a typical Leave seat to look out for early on, which will give an indication of how the Tories are doing?
1 -
So if Labour hold Workington + Stoke Newington, that is a bad sign for the Tories?
Something of a 1992 Basildon if you will0 -
Can you kindly link me?FrancisUrquhart said:
If only there was a spreadsheet that showed that...CorrectHorseBattery said:Can somebody remind me of a typical Leave seat to look out for early on, which will give an indication of how the Tories are doing?
0 -
echo chamber?CorrectHorseBattery said:So anecdote from Hampshire constituency. Just voted Lib Dem.
Busier than I’ve ever seen it but it’s usually dead so what do I know!0 -
Lord above.CorrectHorseBattery said:So if Labour hold Workington + Stoke Newington, that is a bad sign for the Tories?
Something of a 1992 Basildon if you will0 -
I feared I had been exiled to Conservative Home.ozymandias said:Had a Truman Show experience when site went down. The real world came into view. 😜
0 -
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoACorrectHorseBattery said:
Can you kindly link me?FrancisUrquhart said:
If only there was a spreadsheet that showed that...CorrectHorseBattery said:Can somebody remind me of a typical Leave seat to look out for early on, which will give an indication of how the Tories are doing?
0 -
The spreadsheet is your friend:CorrectHorseBattery said:Can somebody remind me of a typical Leave seat to look out for early on, which will give an indication of how the Tories are doing?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA/edit#gid=01 -
There's something of a shift I am observing in these hours, which is a bit like 2017.0
-
Thank you.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
The spreadsheet is your friend:CorrectHorseBattery said:Can somebody remind me of a typical Leave seat to look out for early on, which will give an indication of how the Tories are doing?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA/edit#gid=00 -
Tory Hold Berger out of a jobGabs3 said:https://www.twitter.com/lucianaberger/status/1205097181486747648
Of course they want to go out their way to ensure the Jew doesn't get elected...0
