politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2019 polling race: The pollsters ranked by the CON lead
Comments
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It’s tough, though isn’t it. My first successful local election campaign, I remember dragging a young couple away from their dinner with fifteen minutes until polls closed, persuading them with my account of how the election was on a knife edge and promising to get them back home before their dinner got cold. Then went to the count and we won by over a thousand.CorrectHorseBattery said:You know the image coming out of both sides is remarkably mixed, doesn’t really scream landslide to me
I did write them a nice personal letter afterwards, a mixture of apology and thanks.0 -
I'm sick of hearing how everyone under 30 is going to vote Labour. It's such a lazy cliche.1
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It's also true. You should see my facebook newsfeed.Andy_JS said:I'm sick of hearing how everyone under 30 is going to vote Labour. It's such a lazy cliche.
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Don’t you think it’s odd we’re hearing of massive progress in these low target list seats and yet nothing about the actual key marginals?
What if the gains the Tories make actually turn out to be incredibly random but crucially small?
If they’re getting seats on their target list at over 100, the polls have to be incredibly wrong the other way surely.0 -
Completely agree. Even people at the count at 2 in the morning don't always know what's going on, after they've already been counting votes for 4 hours.nichomar said:I’ve been involved in elections since 1983 and have never ever know what was going on anywhere than in the patch that my committee room covered and that was open to interpretation. I doubt if anyone really knows what’s happening and all these stories are complete and utter bollocks. They help pass the time away but get real nobody really knows
It's entertaining to read all the rumours and gossip but they mean very little.3 -
The Survation poll suggested a very tight contest in Stockton South.RochdalePioneers said:Massive turnout here in Stockton South. Have just gone through the Thornaby polling stations data and it's off the chart for even a general election. Only comparable was the referendum
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Back in the days when we understood politics, both Walsall seats were reasonably comfortably though not overwhelmingly Lab. South had a bigger middle class but was also more heavily Asian. It has swung away from the Conservatives as north has swung towards. I'd be amazed if it was close.Artist said:
Walsall South is 124 on the Tory target list, though a very heavy leave seat.Razedabode said:Tories confident of making gains from Labour in the Midlands. They are reporting positive news for them against Ruth Smeeth in Stoke North and Valerie Vaz in Walsall South
But Dominic Raab is facing a massive fight in Esher. One Tory source puts it at 50-50
From Alex Wickham0 -
NOOOOOO! Please say it's not true that's just awful. Please please no I beg you. Pleeaaase.CorrectHorseBattery said:
IDS is a goner or they’ve given upHYUFD said:Labour reportedly starting to pull activists out of Chingford and Woodford Green and send them to Barnet
Oh. Goner you said? Ah. Sorry I thought you'd written Gooner.
Goner? Oh that's ok.0 -
Well that’s how it used to be but today’s youth too keen to knock off and go down the pub.IanB2 said:0 -
If the Tories are taking seats up to 124, they won't mourn Raab as a bit of collateral damage......WhisperingOracle said:
It could be a question of whether a few losses in commuter Remainia are sufficient to offset some Northern gains.Artist said:
Walsall South is 124 on the Tory target list, though a very heavy leave seat.Razedabode said:Tories confident of making gains from Labour in the Midlands. They are reporting positive news for them against Ruth Smeeth in Stoke North and Valerie Vaz in Walsall South
But Dominic Raab is facing a massive fight in Esher. One Tory source puts it at 50-50
From Alex Wickham0 -
FTFYsquareroot2 said:
Quite so. The ramping on here is ludicrous.HaroldO said:No one knows anything.
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How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.2 -
Not voted yet. Two hour commute between me and ballot box.0
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If you ask nicely they might give you a new one.ydoethur said:Just torn up my ballot paper.
By the way who are Gwlad,Gwlad? I didn't know who they were so they didn't get my vote. Should I have buyer's remorse?0 -
I wouldn't believe anything I read on Facebook.Mikest1982 said:
It's also true. You should see my facebook newsfeed.Andy_JS said:I'm sick of hearing how everyone under 30 is going to vote Labour. It's such a lazy cliche.
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In terms of pulling out of seats, Momentum and Labour don’t tend to do that unless they have a lot of confidence they’re secure.0
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My partner normally votes LD, she voted Tory today to my surprise to stop Corbyn0
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Yes we did thatbigjohnowls said:
Your candidate even asked people not to vote for him yesterday? Or have i got wrong Constituency?RochdalePioneers said:Massive turnout here in Stockton South. Have just gone through the Thornaby polling stations data and it's off the chart for even a general election. Only comparable was the referendum
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It’s not like they don’t have enough activists. In Chingford they have hundreds. My assumption would be they’ve won it0
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Is that right?CorrectHorseBattery said:In terms of pulling out of seats, Momentum and Labour don’t tend to do that unless they have a lot of confidence they’re secure.
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He might still hold on!MarqueeMark said:
If the Tories are taking seats up to 124, they won't mourn Raab as a bit of collateral damage......WhisperingOracle said:
It could be a question of whether a few losses in commuter Remainia are sufficient to offset some Northern gains.Artist said:
Walsall South is 124 on the Tory target list, though a very heavy leave seat.Razedabode said:Tories confident of making gains from Labour in the Midlands. They are reporting positive news for them against Ruth Smeeth in Stoke North and Valerie Vaz in Walsall South
But Dominic Raab is facing a massive fight in Esher. One Tory source puts it at 50-50
From Alex Wickham0 -
😀AlastairMeeks said:
No, I couldn’t risk strangers hanging tinsel and baubles on me.Fysics_Teacher said:
Are you still wearing the green jumper?AlastairMeeks said:I’m heading to vote in 45 minutes or so. The red suit may deter any coded information about voting speed being given. But I shall do my best to get that vital information.
Why am I asking someone I only know online what they are wearing?0 -
I'm shocked.CorrectHorseBattery said:It’s not like they don’t have enough activists. In Chingford they have hundreds. My assumption would be they’ve won it
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I don't know the answer to your question, but I am very gwlad you asked it.Mexicanpete said:
If you ask nicely they might give you a new one.ydoethur said:Just torn up my ballot paper.
By the way who are Gwlad,Gwlad. I didn't know who they were so they didn't get my vote. Should I have buyer's remorse?0 -
Ah yes, later in the night we'll be getting the 'Party X looking very glum at the count in constituency Y, they think they've lost by 4,000 votes' reports, followed by Party X winning easily. It's a noble tradition of election nights.Andy_JS said:
Completely agree. Even people at the count at 2 in the morning don't always know what's going on, after they've already been counting votes for 4 hours.nichomar said:I’ve been involved in elections since 1983 and have never ever know what was going on anywhere than in the patch that my committee room covered and that was open to interpretation. I doubt if anyone really knows what’s happening and all these stories are complete and utter bollocks. They help pass the time away but get real nobody really knows
It's entertaining to read all the rumours and gossip but they mean very little.2 -
By 2 pm, I had no idea whether Leave or Remain had won in Luton. By 4 pm, I thought it was about 54/46 Leave. It turned out to be 57/43.Andy_JS said:
Completely agree. Even people at the count at 2 in the morning don't always know what's going on, after they've already been counting votes for 4 hours.nichomar said:I’ve been involved in elections since 1983 and have never ever know what was going on anywhere than in the patch that my committee room covered and that was open to interpretation. I doubt if anyone really knows what’s happening and all these stories are complete and utter bollocks. They help pass the time away but get real nobody really knows
It's entertaining to read all the rumours and gossip but they mean very little.0 -
That'll be the homophobe Stormzy? But that's OK, he's part of your tribebigjohnowls said:“Personally, for me, it’s very clear cut. Jeremy Corbyn is a man of hope, a man of justice, a man of equality. And the other guy is a f***ing Prick” - Stormzy
Edit to add link https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/11/21/stormzy-has-posted-homophobic-tweets-calling-people-faggots-and-proper-gay/0 -
YepGallowgate said:Everyone under 30 I know appears to have voted. Even those who didn’t vote in the EU ref. Primarily for Labour.
And do we really think that kind of turnout was factored into the opinion polls?
No. Me neither.0 -
Thank goodness for democracy, where everyone's vote is worth the same. Unlike on social media where the people who make the most noise get the most attention and quiet people are ignored.1
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Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.Gabs3 said:How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
That's the only conclusion.-1 -
In my view, Conservatives will win a majority of 40-50 seats. A 1.61 or even a 1.5 as it has now gone down to is a ridiculously good price.0
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I suspect as they realise it is lost, Tory vote coming out hereAndy_JS said:
Is that because they don't think they can win Chingford or because they think they've already done enough to win it?HYUFD said:Labour reportedly starting to pull activists out of Chingford and Woodford Green and send them to Barnet
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Just under three hours until the Big Bong!
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LOLTOPPING said:
NOOOOOO! Please say it's not true that's just awful. Please please no I beg you. Pleeaaase.CorrectHorseBattery said:
IDS is a goner or they’ve given upHYUFD said:Labour reportedly starting to pull activists out of Chingford and Woodford Green and send them to Barnet
Oh. Goner you said? Ah. Sorry I thought you'd written Gooner.
Goner? Oh that's ok.
Could Boris disaster last few days and Corbyns strong finish have been inspired by their internal polling?0 -
It could be tight then. If Boris scrapes a one seat majority we know who to blame.Jonathan said:Not voted yet. Two hour commute between me and ballot box.
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HY bullish on Chingford!HYUFD said:
I suspect as they realise it is lost, Tory vote coming out hereAndy_JS said:
Is that because they don't think they can win Chingford or because they think they've already done enough to win it?HYUFD said:Labour reportedly starting to pull activists out of Chingford and Woodford Green and send them to Barnet
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This is the first election in my adult life where I haven't really got involved due to disillusionment with the whole politics thing.
I now deeply regret that decision. Sitting around nervously with nothing to do, looking at the clock, digesting all the rumours and ramping... it's a fucking nightmare. It's torture. It's like watching your team defending a 1-0 lead and the fourth official shows 8 minutes stoppage time.
Getting out on the ground takes the edge off and provides camaraderie and focus. I'm never not getting involved again!0 -
Had a chat with a Jewish colleague. He voted Labour as the lesser of two evils.Byronic said:
Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.Gabs3 said:How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
That's the only conclusion.0 -
I am coming to the conclusion I will need to emigrate im the next decade or so. These people will become the majority sooner or later.Byronic said:
Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.Gabs3 said:How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
That's the only conclusion.1 -
Labour toleration of racism and the Tories abandonment of fiscal prudence has led us to where we are.Byronic said:
Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.Gabs3 said:How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
That's the only conclusion.0 -
Or lost them.CorrectHorseBattery said:In terms of pulling out of seats, Momentum and Labour don’t tend to do that unless they have a lot of confidence they’re secure.
Jesus christ. Or maybe that they've not got much realistic prospect of winning it? Did that ever cross your mind? Your constant ramping is hilarious, come 17:00 tomorrow I doubt that we'll ever hear again from you (I assume that your contract ends on a Friday right?)CorrectHorseBattery said:It’s not like they don’t have enough activists. In Chingford they have hundreds. My assumption would be they’ve won it
Also, unless it is a 1997 style landslide, by 7pm you very rarely know for certain that you've won a seat or not.0 -
Getting nervous now!
Will CHB be named poster of the DECADE later?!0 -
Momentum were absolutely convinced that they had won Wandsworth in 2018. It did not turn out that way. I thought their human wave tactics in Shaftesbury Ward were counter-productive.CorrectHorseBattery said:In terms of pulling out of seats, Momentum and Labour don’t tend to do that unless they have a lot of confidence they’re secure.
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I always thought it was a bridge too far for Labour to win it this time.HYUFD said:
I suspect as they realise it is lost, Tory vote coming out hereAndy_JS said:
Is that because they don't think they can win Chingford or because they think they've already done enough to win it?HYUFD said:Labour reportedly starting to pull activists out of Chingford and Woodford Green and send them to Barnet
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It means ‘Nation, Nation’ (roughly - it doesn’t translate well into English). They’re the first two words of the chorus of Land of My Fathers.Mexicanpete said:
If you ask nicely they might give you a new one.ydoethur said:Just torn up my ballot paper.
By the way who are Gwlad,Gwlad? I didn't know who they were so they didn't get my vote. Should I have buyer's remorse?0 -
Well I'm convinced - a famous person says it and swears while doing so, he must surely be able to see into the hearts of men.bigjohnowls said:“Personally, for me, it’s very clear cut. Jeremy Corbyn is a man of hope, a man of justice, a man of equality. And the other guy is a f***ing Prick” - Stormzy
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Can you just zip it with anti semite stuff for one second..Byronic said:
Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.Gabs3 said:How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
That's the only conclusion.
Corbyn has dealt terribly with it badly
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Age is the biggest divider of how we vote nowadays, far bigger than class or income. Of course its going to get highlighted?Andy_JS said:I'm sick of hearing how everyone under 30 is going to vote Labour. It's such a lazy cliche.
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I wonder if the Tories could have some bad losses in the South, such as even Grieve winning, and then offset that with a few midland northern gains, with the result of a majority of 10 or so.
At the same time, they might not have made quite enough progress in the north for that, or the postal votes may not be enough.0 -
£16.85m on NOM market
1.52/3.1
Is it going to keep bouncing betwwen 1.5 and 1.6 till 9.59pm or will it bust through at one end0 -
I do hope not. Massive Tory landslide with Raab, Patel, Johnson and Gove losing would be my perfect result.contrarian said:
He might still hold on!MarqueeMark said:
If the Tories are taking seats up to 124, they won't mourn Raab as a bit of collateral damage......WhisperingOracle said:
It could be a question of whether a few losses in commuter Remainia are sufficient to offset some Northern gains.Artist said:
Walsall South is 124 on the Tory target list, though a very heavy leave seat.Razedabode said:Tories confident of making gains from Labour in the Midlands. They are reporting positive news for them against Ruth Smeeth in Stoke North and Valerie Vaz in Walsall South
But Dominic Raab is facing a massive fight in Esher. One Tory source puts it at 50-50
From Alex Wickham0 -
At 9pm you will get the Ave it prediction!
It's currently the subject of a plausibility review by Curtice!
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Arguably the Tories policy of relaxing spending constraints makes a great day of sense when compared to all the other parties?HaroldO said:
Labour toleration of racism and the Tories abandonment of fiscal prudence has led us to where we are.Byronic said:
Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.Gabs3 said:How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
That's the only conclusion.0 -
The most famous example was Bob Marshall-Andrews declaring he'd lost his seat in Medway in 2005 and then winning it a few hours later by 200 votes.Richard_Nabavi said:
Ah yes, later in the night we'll be getting the 'Party X looking very glum at the count in constituency Y, they think they've lost by 4,000 votes' reports, followed by Party X winning easily. It's a noble tradition of election nights.Andy_JS said:
Completely agree. Even people at the count at 2 in the morning don't always know what's going on, after they've already been counting votes for 4 hours.nichomar said:I’ve been involved in elections since 1983 and have never ever know what was going on anywhere than in the patch that my committee room covered and that was open to interpretation. I doubt if anyone really knows what’s happening and all these stories are complete and utter bollocks. They help pass the time away but get real nobody really knows
It's entertaining to read all the rumours and gossip but they mean very little.0 -
Absolutely appalling. This election has raised some penetrating questions about British society which must be addressed.Gabs3 said:
I am coming to the conclusion I will need to emigrate im the next decade or so. These people will become the majority sooner or later.Byronic said:
Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.Gabs3 said:How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
That's the only conclusion.1 -
The last few days have given us Boris' finest comedy moments. A vote winning performance.egg said:
LOLTOPPING said:
NOOOOOO! Please say it's not true that's just awful. Please please no I beg you. Pleeaaase.CorrectHorseBattery said:
IDS is a goner or they’ve given upHYUFD said:Labour reportedly starting to pull activists out of Chingford and Woodford Green and send them to Barnet
Oh. Goner you said? Ah. Sorry I thought you'd written Gooner.
Goner? Oh that's ok.
Could Boris disaster last few days and Corbyns strong finish have been inspired by their internal polling?1 -
Not many people predicted one.CorrectHorseBattery said:You know the image coming out of both sides is remarkably mixed, doesn’t really scream landslide to me
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And me, and millions more who admire and respect the Jewish community.Gabs3 said:How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
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Report from Colchester - polling station had a steady flow - no queue outside like at 2016 referendum.
Looking at the sheets as they crossed my name off it didn't seem like a high turnout.
Lib Dems complaining about Labour people spamming their candidates website0 -
You hadn't realized that these are standard templates that have been issued to candidates,they just need to change the name & constituency?CorrectHorseBattery said:There are too many of these “knife edge” Labour posts now from the north.
Me thinks they’re going to hold on in most but it’s going to be incredibly close. I suspect the next few hours will be key.0 -
Absolutely.Andy_JS said:
Completely agree. Even people at the count at 2 in the morning don't always know what's going on, after they've already been counting votes for 4 hours.nichomar said:I’ve been involved in elections since 1983 and have never ever know what was going on anywhere than in the patch that my committee room covered and that was open to interpretation. I doubt if anyone really knows what’s happening and all these stories are complete and utter bollocks. They help pass the time away but get real nobody really knows
It's entertaining to read all the rumours and gossip but they mean very little.
In 2010 I was at the count for Penistone & Stocksbridge updating the spreadsheet with the test counts for the Tories. We didn’t have any previous count data, so there was some guesswork (I’d calculated targets from canvassing data). At about 2am I couldn’t call it for sure, although thought we’d probably lost. Labour, who would have had far better data than us, looked really panicked which was giving me some hope,
They won by 3,000 votes.0 -
It's moved a lot again, from 1.6 to 1.5. I think someone with a lot of resources is having fun moving the numbers around.bigjohnowls said:£16.85m on NOM market
1.52/3.1
Is it going to keep bouncing betwwen 1.5 and 1.6 till 9.59pm or will it bust through at one end0 -
I was surprised at how many youngsters were voting Con. whilst out canvassing. That they are universally thought to be in the Labour column is very lazy.noneoftheabove said:
Age is the biggest divider of how we vote nowadays, far bigger than class or income. Of course its going to get highlighted?Andy_JS said:I'm sick of hearing how everyone under 30 is going to vote Labour. It's such a lazy cliche.
(With the caveat that the young are not a major demographic in Totnes and South Devon!)0 -
I know it pains you to realise that, for the first time in your life, you are clearly and unambiguously supporting the racist, fascist, nasty, anti-Semite party - the Bad Guys - but there it is, Own it. I will not zip it.tyson said:
Can you just zip it with anti semite stuff for one second..Byronic said:
Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.Gabs3 said:How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
That's the only conclusion.
Corbyn has dealt terribly with it badly1 -
Welsh nationalist Centre-right (their words) pro-Brexit party. All sound a bit blood and soil to me.ydoethur said:
It means ‘Nation, Nation’ (roughly - it doesn’t translate well into English). They’re the first two words of the chorus of Land of My Fathers.Mexicanpete said:
If you ask nicely they might give you a new one.ydoethur said:Just torn up my ballot paper.
By the way who are Gwlad,Gwlad? I didn't know who they were so they didn't get my vote. Should I have buyer's remorse?0 -
I don't get the feeling these are all just spamming - the Tories could have some hope in some of these places.funkhauser said:
You hadn't realized that these are standard templates that have been issued to candidates,they just need to change the name & constituency?CorrectHorseBattery said:There are too many of these “knife edge” Labour posts now from the north.
Me thinks they’re going to hold on in most but it’s going to be incredibly close. I suspect the next few hours will be key.0 -
I share your view.Gabs3 said:How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
Think that as we get later and later, they are suffering from history not having repeated itself.
Eventually we will get a war or something that may wake them up.0 -
I was thinking more of Brexit, that is the big misstep. Hobbling ourselves in the medium term economically is not a solid economic plan.Mikest1982 said:
Arguably the Tories policy of relaxing spending constraints makes a great day of sense when compared to all the other parties?HaroldO said:
Labour toleration of racism and the Tories abandonment of fiscal prudence has led us to where we are.Byronic said:
Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.Gabs3 said:How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
That's the only conclusion.1 -
And we go live to Sir Curtice...Ave_it said:At 9pm you will get the Ave it prediction!
It's currently the subject of a plausibility review by Curtice!
https://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/YesMinisterReaction61.gif0 -
Say he does lose, what are the Tories going to do about him. Will someone stand down straight away to get him back in.Razedabode said:Tories confident of making gains from Labour in the Midlands. They are reporting positive news for them against Ruth Smeeth in Stoke North and Valerie Vaz in Walsall South
But Dominic Raab is facing a massive fight in Esher. One Tory source puts it at 50-50
From Alex Wickham0 -
As per our discussion in the earlier day, however, Jewish people like my wife, Gallowgate, and apparently Tyson, on the other hand, are voting Labour.algarkirk said:
And me, and millions more who admire and respect the Jewish community.Gabs3 said:How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.0 -
Of course its not universal! But they will nationally break heavily Labour and over 65 break 50/15 Tories. One of the few ways the polls could all be very wrong is if far more young people vote than expected (or fewer old people vote than expected).MarqueeMark said:
I was surprised at how many youngsters were voting Con. whilst out canvassing. That they are universally thought to be in the Labour column is very lazy.noneoftheabove said:
Age is the biggest divider of how we vote nowadays, far bigger than class or income. Of course its going to get highlighted?Andy_JS said:I'm sick of hearing how everyone under 30 is going to vote Labour. It's such a lazy cliche.
(With the caveat that the young are not a major demographic in Totnes and South Devon!)0 -
Looking at the breakdown of the polling stations I've seen I think Labour are going to get a kicking. Off out to see some more in half an hour...1
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My 28 year old and his girlfriend are voting toryMarqueeMark said:
I was surprised at how many youngsters were voting Con. whilst out canvassing. That they are universally thought to be in the Labour column is very lazy.noneoftheabove said:
Age is the biggest divider of how we vote nowadays, far bigger than class or income. Of course its going to get highlighted?Andy_JS said:I'm sick of hearing how everyone under 30 is going to vote Labour. It's such a lazy cliche.
(With the caveat that the young are not a major demographic in Totnes and South Devon!)
This is a quote from a text he sent me earlier today
"there is no way I want the Labour scum in"
He did not get that from me - we rarely talk politics0 -
How do you know they dont tend to do that? Is it part of a momentum training manual or something, as I dont see how we could possibly know that.CorrectHorseBattery said:In terms of pulling out of seats, Momentum and Labour don’t tend to do that unless they have a lot of confidence they’re secure.
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Mikest1982 said:
Arguably the Tories policy of relaxing spending constraints makes a great day of sense when compared to all the other parties?HaroldO said:
Labour toleration of racism and the Tories abandonment of fiscal prudence has led us to where we are.Byronic said:
Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.Gabs3 said:How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
That's the only conclusion.
Especially with low interest rates.0 -
A different view than our resident Labour rampers - I know who I believeRochdalePioneers said:Looking at the breakdown of the polling stations I've seen I think Labour are going to get a kicking. Off out to see some more in half an hour...
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True of some but there is a total unconscious blocking of the reality of the LP leadership in the case of many. In some ways it is more frightening in that I don't know what can be done but in other ways less frightening because the scales must drop eventually. The evidence about Corbyn and antisemitism and his support for repressive regimes and vile terrorists is overwhelming but some will not see.Byronic said:
Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.Gabs3 said:How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
That's the only conclusion.0 -
That would be appropriate, given the preceding line is ‘dros rhyddid gollasant eu gwaed’ (‘for freedom poured out their blood’).3ChordTrick said:
Welsh nationalist Centre-right (their words) pro-Brexit party. All sound a bit blood and soil to me.ydoethur said:
It means ‘Nation, Nation’ (roughly - it doesn’t translate well into English). They’re the first two words of the chorus of Land of My Fathers.Mexicanpete said:
If you ask nicely they might give you a new one.ydoethur said:Just torn up my ballot paper.
By the way who are Gwlad,Gwlad? I didn't know who they were so they didn't get my vote. Should I have buyer's remorse?0 -
Could be a kicking in the north, and a massive boost in the campuses and campus towns, and London.RochdalePioneers said:Looking at the breakdown of the polling stations I've seen I think Labour are going to get a kicking. Off out to see some more in half an hour...
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As noted it is mostly true. What I dont like is the automatic assumption from some that they should do so, or old people should gite Tory, with the unspoken implication of being wrong for not doing so.Andy_JS said:I'm sick of hearing how everyone under 30 is going to vote Labour. It's such a lazy cliche.
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That’s not quite fair. He’s supporting one of the MANY racist, fascist etc...Byronic said:
I know it pains you to realise that, for the first time in your life, you are clearly and unambiguously supporting the racist, fascist, nasty, anti-Semite party - the Bad Guys - but there it is, Own it. I will not zip it.tyson said:
Can you just zip it with anti semite stuff for one second..Byronic said:
Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.Gabs3 said:How many of us are feeling:
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
That's the only conclusion.
Corbyn has dealt terribly with it badly0 -
Site is beginning to buckle I think0
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If Valerie Vaz loses, then who cares - Boris will have 500 MPs to choose fromegg said:
Say he does lose, what are the Tories going to do about him. Will someone stand down straight away to get him back in.Razedabode said:Tories confident of making gains from Labour in the Midlands. They are reporting positive news for them against Ruth Smeeth in Stoke North and Valerie Vaz in Walsall South
But Dominic Raab is facing a massive fight in Esher. One Tory source puts it at 50-50
From Alex Wickham0 -
I would expect the young outside the metropolis and universities probably vote closer to the rest of the population. It's just the majority of young people congregate in cities, and a larger proportion of them went/go to university.MarqueeMark said:
I was surprised at how many youngsters were voting Con. whilst out canvassing. That they are universally thought to be in the Labour column is very lazy.noneoftheabove said:
Age is the biggest divider of how we vote nowadays, far bigger than class or income. Of course its going to get highlighted?Andy_JS said:I'm sick of hearing how everyone under 30 is going to vote Labour. It's such a lazy cliche.
(With the caveat that the young are not a major demographic in Totnes and South Devon!)0 -
Once the count is well under way its pretty simple. Walk up and down looking at tables. You can see who is ahead.KeithJenner said:
Absolutely.Andy_JS said:
Completely agree. Even people at the count at 2 in the morning don't always know what's going on, after they've already been counting votes for 4 hours.nichomar said:I’ve been involved in elections since 1983 and have never ever know what was going on anywhere than in the patch that my committee room covered and that was open to interpretation. I doubt if anyone really knows what’s happening and all these stories are complete and utter bollocks. They help pass the time away but get real nobody really knows
It's entertaining to read all the rumours and gossip but they mean very little.
In 2010 I was at the count for Penistone & Stocksbridge updating the spreadsheet with the test counts for the Tories. We didn’t have any previous count data, so there was some guesswork (I’d calculated targets from canvassing data). At about 2am I couldn’t call it for sure, although thought we’d probably lost. Labour, who would have had far better data than us, looked really panicked which was giving me some hope,
They won by 3,000 votes.0 -
A kicking covers a wide range. Lots of close second places for the tories wouldnt help despite eating into the red wall.WhisperingOracle said:
Could be a kicking in the north, and a massive boost in the campuses and campus towns, and London.RochdalePioneers said:Looking at the breakdown of the polling stations I've seen I think Labour are going to get a kicking. Off out to see some more in half an hour...
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Or a good source at Google HQ.TheScreamingEagles said:
You'd need tellers in every polling station providing live time information to get that kind of detail.RobD said:
There's no way canvasing tallies are that precise. Is there any net gain in information by posting tweets from this account?CorrectHorseBattery said:
Joke.
(Or is it?)
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In Kensington Tories and LibDems are joint favorites
Tories still favourites in Esher
IDS looks OK in Chingford, according to odds
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I should have known that by the translated title of Land of My Fathers.ydoethur said:
It means ‘Nation, Nation’ (roughly - it doesn’t translate well into English). They’re the first two words of the chorus of Land of My Fathers.Mexicanpete said:
If you ask nicely they might give you a new one.ydoethur said:Just torn up my ballot paper.
By the way who are Gwlad,Gwlad? I didn't know who they were so they didn't get my vote. Should I have buyer's remorse?
I have subsequently learned that they are guerrilla Plaid Cymru bods who disagreed with standing aside, and are thus standing in four seats. Waste of a deposit if you ask me. Not that anyone has.
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