politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2019 polling race: The pollsters ranked by the CON lead
Comments
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how on earth can they know that without doing their own exit poll?3ChordTrick said:Labour sources Cardiff Central : saying majority likely to match 2017.
Take what you will from that.0 -
Just had a resent text from 5.27pm saying JC office are calling it as a Con majority.0
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I am sure PB Tories will have an opportunity to switch from blind panic back to smug triumphalism in a few hours. I always imagine that PB Tories think of themselves as heirs to their imperial forebears, maintaining their stiff upper lips while the lesser races are consumed by their emotions, calmly putting down a Pashtun uprising or relieving Mafeking. On present form they are more Corporal Jones than General Gordon. Show some backbone, PB Tories. Playing fields of Eton! Your man has this!CorrectHorseBattery said:Never change PB
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Betfair recent moves might simply be due to punters getting out of work at 5pm.0
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RE the markets: fear of Corbyn is offset by hope of revoke.0
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Never been this nervous about politics before. Think this one is huge. I'm going for a lie down in a darkened room.nico67 said:
Yes but often especially in the cities people will pop into the polling booth either on their way to work or on their way home.funkhauser said:
I live opposite a polling station & it was incredibly busy this morning despite the wind & rain,now down to a trickle of people...nico67 said:Its pretty important for Labour to have this rain clearing.
Historically their supporters tend to come out in bigger numbers from around 7 to 10 pm . It’s this period last time according to those on the 2017 exit poll where Mays majority started slipping away .
I remember Michael Thrasher saying this when he was talking about the changes they saw during the day .
I still think the Tories will get a comfortable majority , following betting patterns is leading to some Tory supporters in here from almost reaching for the Prozac !1 -
Why would they say that unless they wanted to mobilize the Conservative vote?3ChordTrick said:Labour sources Cardiff Central : saying majority likely to match 2017.
Take what you will from that.
Cardiff North would be of more interest. A sea of orange from Whitchurch, through Rhiwbina to Llanishen and Cyncoed. And the LD candidate has backed voting Labour!0 -
Labour doing better than expected in Wales?3ChordTrick said:Labour sources Cardiff Central : saying majority likely to match 2017.
Take what you will from that.0 -
Panic over on Betfair for now.
Back into 1.57
Looks spot on to me.0 -
All political punters should be forced to look at charts showing the Betfair movements and the full PB.com threads for the previous election before betting on the next one. We do this every time, crazy rumours and whispers of differential turnout and it is accurate no more than chance. In 2016 the rumours pushed Leave from 4/1 to 10/1 during polling day!0
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Yet another move to scare out the lazy vote.Brom said:Just had a resent text from 5.27pm saying JC office are calling it as a Con majority.
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But thank you to whoever was funding the 1.65. I think/hope.bigjohnowls said:Panic over on Betfair for now.
Back into 1.57
Looks spot on to me.
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Is that like unfazed?RobD said:Sterling unphased.
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If I’m wrong I’m going to apologise.
If I’m right, I’m going to get very drunk0 -
Don't do that! Who knows what might happen if you stop watching the screen?KentRising said:
Never been this nervous about politics before. Think this one is huge. I'm going for a lie down in a darkened room.nico67 said:
Yes but often especially in the cities people will pop into the polling booth either on their way to work or on their way home.funkhauser said:
I live opposite a polling station & it was incredibly busy this morning despite the wind & rain,now down to a trickle of people...nico67 said:Its pretty important for Labour to have this rain clearing.
Historically their supporters tend to come out in bigger numbers from around 7 to 10 pm . It’s this period last time according to those on the 2017 exit poll where Mays majority started slipping away .
I remember Michael Thrasher saying this when he was talking about the changes they saw during the day .
I still think the Tories will get a comfortable majority , following betting patterns is leading to some Tory supporters in here from almost reaching for the Prozac !0 -
It would be worthless.egg said:
What about other polling similar to exit poll style on behalf of other media leaking out?AlastairMeeks said:
Two possibilities.Peter_the_Punter said:now 1.58. OK folks, you tell me what's going on because I am buggered if I know.
1) Someone has some very credible information suggesting that the Conservatives are underperforming.
2) No one knows anything and there's something of a blind stampede.
Given the nature of general elections, 2 seems more likely than 1. But what do I know?
Exit polling is quite different to standard opinion polling. It's only as accurate as it is because John Curtice & Co. have had six successive elections to compare turnouts and voting intentions across the same polling stations.1 -
There is no chance of any leak from the exit poll itself , unless some people doing the data collection on the ground outside polling stations are leaking then this betting drama looks plain silly .1
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Ah, the PB polling day panic. I do love traditions at this time of year.Jason said:
Steady on fella. We've gone from a Tory landslide to Corbyn PM in the space of 12 hours.KentRising said:
It will make a complete mockery of the polls.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think a hung parliament is becoming more likely and my reason for saying it are as follows
Large youth turnout in London and possibility of IDS and Raab losing
HYUFD was far from confident today
Little if any information from the red wall and beyond which you would expect if big gains
Poor weather across most of the country and early dark evenings
Rumours of smaller postal votes being received
The pound and betting markets falling confidence
Is this the David Herdson moment of 2017
But I think we are now facing PM Corbyn.0 -
oops, me and my crap spelling.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is that like unfazed?RobD said:Sterling unphased.
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I am arent you?Brom said:Just had a resent text from 5.27pm saying JC office are calling it as a Con majority.
Werent you on Tory Maj at some really short odds?0 -
Could be the equalisation of Labour doing worse in Wales vs Labour doing better in cities.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Labour doing better than expected in Wales?3ChordTrick said:Labour sources Cardiff Central : saying majority likely to match 2017.
Take what you will from that.
Or it could be the aliens which were conducting thought probes last night.0 -
Thsi makes it sound as if it is unfair that the tories will only get an overall majority if their lead is 6 points, but if they do get an overall majority it will still be with well under 50% of the vote share.CorrectHorseBattery said:1 -
If I’m watching England bat live my feet mustn’t touch the floor. Resting on a drinks bottle or something is ok but never the floor. Whenever I need a wee I fear for the total.Chris said:
Don't do that! Who knows what might happen if you stop watching the screen?KentRising said:
Never been this nervous about politics before. Think this one is huge. I'm going for a lie down in a darkened room.nico67 said:
Yes but often especially in the cities people will pop into the polling booth either on their way to work or on their way home.funkhauser said:
I live opposite a polling station & it was incredibly busy this morning despite the wind & rain,now down to a trickle of people...nico67 said:Its pretty important for Labour to have this rain clearing.
Historically their supporters tend to come out in bigger numbers from around 7 to 10 pm . It’s this period last time according to those on the 2017 exit poll where Mays majority started slipping away .
I remember Michael Thrasher saying this when he was talking about the changes they saw during the day .
I still think the Tories will get a comfortable majority , following betting patterns is leading to some Tory supporters in here from almost reaching for the Prozac !
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Well if it is that's a pretty risky strategy. You might just say why bother voting then if it's a foregone conclusion.KentRising said:
Yet another move to scare out the lazy vote.Brom said:Just had a resent text from 5.27pm saying JC office are calling it as a Con majority.
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What was the final Herdson call? I missed it.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think a hung parliament is becoming more likely and my reason for saying it are as follows
Large youth turnout in London and possibility of IDS and Raab losing
HYUFD was far from confident today
Little if any information from the red wall and beyond which you would expect if big gains
Poor weather across most of the country and early dark evenings
Rumours of smaller postal votes being received
The pound and betting markets falling confidence
Is this the David Herdson moment of 20170 -
What extension? If GE in Feb, we will have Brexited already on a "No Deal" basis unless parliament passes Tories` WA.SunnyJim said:
We will be doing it again in February.NorthofStoke said:If its a hung parliament then something has to give in next few months
If it is a HP there isn't a viable coalition as far as I can see.
Don't know what that means for the extension.0 -
As someone who routinely overreacts to things, I endorse the message that this reaction does not make sense.nico67 said:There is no chance of any leak from the exit poll itself , unless some people doing the data collection on the ground outside polling stations are leaking then this betting drama looks plain silly .
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Quite right. We need to display the spirit of Brigadier John Nicholson, at the Siege of Delhi.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I am sure PB Tories will have an opportunity to switch from blind panic back to smug triumphalism in a few hours. I always imagine that PB Tories think of themselves as heirs to their imperial forebears, maintaining their stiff upper lips while the lesser races are consumed by their emotions, calmly putting down a Pashtun uprising or relieving Mafeking. On present form they are more Corporal Jones than General Gordon. Show some backbone, PB Tories. Playing fields of Eton! Your man has this!CorrectHorseBattery said:Never change PB
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Like you’d know what JC office are saying. In 2017, people were calling it as a Tory majority until the exit poll came in.0
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RobD said:
You've suddenly become less credulous?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/toryfibs/status/1205174434174316547
This sounds like bollocks
PB Tories panicking is one of the two default modes.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I am sure PB Tories will have an opportunity to switch from blind panic back to smug triumphalism in a few hours. I always imagine that PB Tories think of themselves as heirs to their imperial forebears, maintaining their stiff upper lips while the lesser races are consumed by their emotions, calmly putting down a Pashtun uprising or relieving Mafeking. On present form they are more Corporal Jones than General Gordon. Show some backbone, PB Tories. Playing fields of Eton! Your man has this!CorrectHorseBattery said:Never change PB
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Doesn't that email get sent out a every GE.wills66 said:I reckon the market started moving after CCHQ sent out their "Labour turnout is High, have you voted" email as part of their GOTV operation (timed 16:34).
Somebody, somewhere thinks that this is a real emergency email instead of a standard pre-programmed one, the later being what I have assumed it is.
No idea which is right or which is wrong.
WillS.0 -
Well I thought that, but it's from the wife of someone at Labour HQ so it's worth something rather than nothing IMO.KentRising said:
Yet another move to scare out the lazy vote.Brom said:Just had a resent text from 5.27pm saying JC office are calling it as a Con majority.
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Down to 1.55, I lacked the balls to go bigger at 1.66 ten minutes ago - I only bet £25. Should have put a zero on end of that.0
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bigjohnowls said:
Your comment is why Tory Maj is not nailed onChameleon said:
The issue with blindly backing 'the underdog' (I'd argue that it's more backing whoever opposes your country) is that you end up laying wreaths on the graves of members of a terrorist organisation that massacred Israeli athletes, or invite terrorists to Parliament weeks after they tried to assassinate the PM, and successfully assassinated an MP.melcf said:This would be my last post on Corbyn. I know he has been vilified and ostracised, so anyone supporting him would suffer the same fate. The main reason is because HE HAS BACKED THE UNDERDOG throughout his life.
The underdogs, include people like me, who are marginalised and not considered part of the mainstream. Despite working and contributing into the system. Also the voiceless and the weak, who can't defend themselves. Hence he keeps polling 35-40%, despite the avalanche of bad publicity, courtesy of the right wing press.
He could have taken the easy route and become extremely popular with the masses. By playing to the gallery, just like Bojo. Which is being is being anti immigration and Islamphobic. Instead, throughout his life he chose to swim against the tide. In the process making very powerful enemies and pissing off significant sections of the population.
Despite all this, he still gives hope to millions across the country and has their vote. Whether he will be around in 24 hours or not is hard to say. However, the very fact that the nasty Tories have agreed to end austerity and hire more Police Officers, Nurses and build more hospitals will be his legacy. To shift focus from bs Brexit, to the real issues that matter in the long run.
People are worrying about the NHS, school funding, making ends meet.
Tory lies about Corbyn not so much when they see the Racist in the other party
Nothing I said is a lie, Corbyn's default position is to back the UK's enemies.
I don't like the Tories much, but reluctantly had to become a first time Con voter, because they'll screw up the country the least over the next 5 years.1 -
He a journalist isn’t he? I imagine he has special sources.Brom said:https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205165468044185605
This sounds a bit defeatist. Not sure Owen Jones knows much more than the rest of us though.0 -
Or Sir Sydney Rough-Diamond in Carry on up the Khyber.Sean_F said:
Quite right. We need to display the spirit of Brigadier John Nicholson, at the Siege of Delhi.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I am sure PB Tories will have an opportunity to switch from blind panic back to smug triumphalism in a few hours. I always imagine that PB Tories think of themselves as heirs to their imperial forebears, maintaining their stiff upper lips while the lesser races are consumed by their emotions, calmly putting down a Pashtun uprising or relieving Mafeking. On present form they are more Corporal Jones than General Gordon. Show some backbone, PB Tories. Playing fields of Eton! Your man has this!CorrectHorseBattery said:Never change PB
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Don't you have to be 18 or over to purchase alcohol?CorrectHorseBattery said:If I’m wrong I’m going to apologise.
If I’m right, I’m going to get very drunk0 -
So long as it isn't like Reginald Dyer at Jallianwala Bagh.Sean_F said:
Quite right. We need to display the spirit of Brigadier John Nicholson, at the Siege of Delhi.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I am sure PB Tories will have an opportunity to switch from blind panic back to smug triumphalism in a few hours. I always imagine that PB Tories think of themselves as heirs to their imperial forebears, maintaining their stiff upper lips while the lesser races are consumed by their emotions, calmly putting down a Pashtun uprising or relieving Mafeking. On present form they are more Corporal Jones than General Gordon. Show some backbone, PB Tories. Playing fields of Eton! Your man has this!CorrectHorseBattery said:Never change PB
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The other one is sneering, right?Fysics_Teacher said:RobD said:
You've suddenly become less credulous?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/toryfibs/status/1205174434174316547
This sounds like bollocks
PB Tories panicking is one of the two default modes.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I am sure PB Tories will have an opportunity to switch from blind panic back to smug triumphalism in a few hours. I always imagine that PB Tories think of themselves as heirs to their imperial forebears, maintaining their stiff upper lips while the lesser races are consumed by their emotions, calmly putting down a Pashtun uprising or relieving Mafeking. On present form they are more Corporal Jones than General Gordon. Show some backbone, PB Tories. Playing fields of Eton! Your man has this!CorrectHorseBattery said:Never change PB
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When the panic subsides the hubristic victory lap will begin.Fysics_Teacher said:RobD said:
You've suddenly become less credulous?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/toryfibs/status/1205174434174316547
This sounds like bollocks
PB Tories panicking is one of the two default modes.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I am sure PB Tories will have an opportunity to switch from blind panic back to smug triumphalism in a few hours. I always imagine that PB Tories think of themselves as heirs to their imperial forebears, maintaining their stiff upper lips while the lesser races are consumed by their emotions, calmly putting down a Pashtun uprising or relieving Mafeking. On present form they are more Corporal Jones than General Gordon. Show some backbone, PB Tories. Playing fields of Eton! Your man has this!CorrectHorseBattery said:Never change PB
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Sounds a bit like nonsense?Brom said:
Well I thought that, but it's from the wife of someone at Labour HQ so it's worth something rather than nothing IMO.KentRising said:
Yet another move to scare out the lazy vote.Brom said:Just had a resent text from 5.27pm saying JC office are calling it as a Con majority.
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kinabalu said:
What was the final Herdson call? I missed it.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think a hung parliament is becoming more likely and my reason for saying it are as follows
Large youth turnout in London and possibility of IDS and Raab losing
HYUFD was far from confident today
Little if any information from the red wall and beyond which you would expect if big gains
Poor weather across most of the country and early dark evenings
Rumours of smaller postal votes being received
The pound and betting markets falling confidence
Is this the David Herdson moment of 2017
RCS is usually pretty accurate.
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Free money alert:
Battersea LAB hold 1.25 on Betfair Sportsbook can be laid at 1.2 on the Exchange.0 -
Something tells me that the younger voters may be feeling more bothered to brave the rain than the still pro-Brexit, but older voters.
On the other hand, I still think the postal votes could still be just cancelling that out.
Moving my forecast to the lower end of 0-30, to 0-15, but as ever still too early to say.0 -
No my Daddy gets it for meJason said:
Don't you have to be 18 or over to purchase alcohol?CorrectHorseBattery said:If I’m wrong I’m going to apologise.
If I’m right, I’m going to get very drunk4 -
Well, my guess FWIW is that it will be a result similar to 2017 - a Hung Parliament rather than a stonking majority.
But, hey, what do I know.
Raining very heavily here. No time to discover that there is a leak in the conservatory roof .......
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And Ed Miliband thought he had won right up until the exit poll.CorrectHorseBattery said:Like you’d know what JC office are saying. In 2017, people were calling it as a Tory majority until the exit poll came in.
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That gives it more credibility to bring out their supporters.Brom said:
Well I thought that, but it's from the wife of someone at Labour HQ so it's worth something rather than nothing IMO.KentRising said:
Yet another move to scare out the lazy vote.Brom said:Just had a resent text from 5.27pm saying JC office are calling it as a Con majority.
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Still surprised we’ve heard little from the north1
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TheScreamingEagles said:
Listen to David
https://twitter.com/RossPolitics/status/1205180908032188417
That seems pretty reasonable.0 -
Fysics_Teacher said:
And Ed Miliband thought he had won right up until the exit poll.CorrectHorseBattery said:Like you’d know what JC office are saying. In 2017, people were calling it as a Tory majority until the exit poll came in.
My opinion is that there are a lot of opinions on here and each one is worth about as much as the next.. and that's about zeroCyclefree said:Well, my guess FWIW is that it will be a result similar to 2017 - a Hung Parliament rather than a stonking majority.
But, hey, what do I know.
Raining very heavily here. No time to discover that there is a leak in the conservatory roof .......1 -
Fair pointFysics_Teacher said:
And Ed Miliband thought he had won right up until the exit poll.CorrectHorseBattery said:Like you’d know what JC office are saying. In 2017, people were calling it as a Tory majority until the exit poll came in.
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It depends on vote share. For example, a lead of 47% to 41% would probably deliver a comfortable Conservative majority. A result like Con 37% to Lab 31% would almost certainly result in a hung Parliament.eristdoof said:
Thsi makes it sound as if it is unfair that the tories will only get an overall majority if their lead is 6 points, but if they do get an overall majority it will still be with well under 50% of the vote share.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Com Res think that their poll of Con 41 to Lab 36, would give the Conservatives a majority of 6.0 -
Very noticeable. That's why I think 0-10/15 is currently a better bet than 0 to 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:Still surprised we’ve heard little from the north
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He’s also in the USA.funkhauser said:kinabalu said:
What was the final Herdson call? I missed it.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think a hung parliament is becoming more likely and my reason for saying it are as follows
Large youth turnout in London and possibility of IDS and Raab losing
HYUFD was far from confident today
Little if any information from the red wall and beyond which you would expect if big gains
Poor weather across most of the country and early dark evenings
Rumours of smaller postal votes being received
The pound and betting markets falling confidence
Is this the David Herdson moment of 2017
RCS is usually pretty accurate.
Not that that means he is wrong.0 -
Seen his call. It's the same as mine.funkhauser said:RCS is usually pretty accurate.
But I missed the one from David Herdson.0 -
Yes but it was a personal message to a friend rather than a call to arms.funkhauser said:
That gives it more credibility to bring out their supporters.Brom said:
Well I thought that, but it's from the wife of someone at Labour HQ so it's worth something rather than nothing IMO.KentRising said:
Yet another move to scare out the lazy vote.Brom said:Just had a resent text from 5.27pm saying JC office are calling it as a Con majority.
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She is not the Sherlock Holmes she thinks she is if she has only just deduced a Tory majority.Brom said:
Well I thought that, but it's from the wife of someone at Labour HQ so it's worth something rather than nothing IMO.KentRising said:
Yet another move to scare out the lazy vote.Brom said:Just had a resent text from 5.27pm saying JC office are calling it as a Con majority.
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If people are reacting to what individual data collectors are saying about individual polling stations, then that is hardly an indication to what is happening on a national scale.nico67 said:There is no chance of any leak from the exit poll itself , unless some people doing the data collection on the ground outside polling stations are leaking then this betting drama looks plain silly .
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what you calling kinabalu>?kinabalu said:
Seen his call. It's the same as mine.funkhauser said:RCS is usually pretty accurate.
But I missed the one from David Herdson.0 -
He's hinting the polls are wrong. He must know something. What has he heard?TheScreamingEagles said:Listen to David
https://twitter.com/RossPolitics/status/12051809080321884170 -
I assume a lot of people did, which was why one of them was followed up by an apology and acknowledgement that people were helping already.MarqueeMark said:
At least the begging letters have stopped - after I wrote into HQ telling them to bugger off with their e-mails, as some of us were working bloody hard in the field to get our candidates elected.RobinWiggs said:
I got the same email. Must admit, I’m looking forward to the Cabinet getting back to running the country instead of writing emails to me twice a day.TheScreamingEagles said:Boris Johnson has just personally told me this
‘our teams on the ground are reporting a high Labour turnout. So have you voted yet? Have your friends and family?’0 -
I know polls have said for weeks Tories are around 40 but what if they drop below 40 and Labour stay around 32-36. That could happen entirely due to turnout.0
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It was to say sorry for his previous night's post that he thought the Cons had lost their majoritykinabalu said:
What was the final Herdson call? I missed it.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think a hung parliament is becoming more likely and my reason for saying it are as follows
Large youth turnout in London and possibility of IDS and Raab losing
HYUFD was far from confident today
Little if any information from the red wall and beyond which you would expect if big gains
Poor weather across most of the country and early dark evenings
Rumours of smaller postal votes being received
The pound and betting markets falling confidence
Is this the David Herdson moment of 20171 -
Chris said:
He's hinting the polls are wrong. He must know something. What has he heard?TheScreamingEagles said:Listen to David
https://twitter.com/RossPolitics/status/1205180908032188417
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Why should they get into trouble for it?nico67 said:There were rumours that in the EU ref some hedge funds were going to commission their own polling on the day . Not sure if this happened .
And even if they could do that with the GE wouldn’t they get into serious trouble if they used that to play the markets .0 -
0
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Why do you take a barge pole to the races? Is it your lucky barge pole?kinabalu said:1.6 now! What the devil is going on?
If the Cons were a horse with this happening day of race I would not be touching them with a barge pole.
I had ten quid on Chummys Favourite, and tipped him live on air. And I was on snow night.1 -
Yep but it only takes one inexperienced person to misunderstand it and they start to move the market. Everyone else follows, not knowing what the original trigger was and thinking someone must know something.funkhauser said:
Doesn't that email get sent out a every GE.wills66 said:I reckon the market started moving after CCHQ sent out their "Labour turnout is High, have you voted" email as part of their GOTV operation (timed 16:34).
Somebody, somewhere thinks that this is a real emergency email instead of a standard pre-programmed one, the later being what I have assumed it is.
No idea which is right or which is wrong.
WillS.
The golden mantra should be No One Knows Anything (Except 3 people in a locked room) ... until about 15 seconds past 10 PM.0 -
A lot of people thought high turnout in bad weather favoured Remain in 2016. It did not turn out that way.WhisperingOracle said:Something tells me that the younger voters may be feeling more bothered to brave the rain than the still pro-Brexit, but older voters.
On the other hand, I still think the postal votes could still be just cancelling that out.
Moving my forecast to the lower end of 0-30, to 0-15, but as ever still too early to say.0 -
As I noticed.CorrectHorseBattery said:Still surprised we’ve heard little from the north
People usually like to report increases in turnout not decreases.
Beyond the M25 silence, unless you live an a heavy student area.
I translate it as: turnout higher where Corbyn is popular, lower where he is not.
That could be Labour voters or Conservative ones though.0 -
Some unkind people might suggest some of the opinions are worth less than zero, but I wouldn't want to play that game lest there be demerit points for over posting.squareroot2 said:Fysics_Teacher said:
And Ed Miliband thought he had won right up until the exit poll.CorrectHorseBattery said:Like you’d know what JC office are saying. In 2017, people were calling it as a Tory majority until the exit poll came in.
My opinion is that there are a lot of opinions on here and each one is worth about as much as the next.. and that's about zeroCyclefree said:Well, my guess FWIW is that it will be a result similar to 2017 - a Hung Parliament rather than a stonking majority.
But, hey, what do I know.
Raining very heavily here. No time to discover that there is a leak in the conservatory roof .......
Time for a power nap ahead of the count. Play nice everyone and congrats to PM Boris/Jeremy in advance.0 -
That’s what they want us to think. I don’t believe it. Sounds unlikely.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep but it only takes one inexperienced person to misunderstand it and they start to move the market. Everyone else follows, not knowing what the original trigger was and thinking someone must know something.funkhauser said:
Doesn't that email get sent out a every GE.wills66 said:I reckon the market started moving after CCHQ sent out their "Labour turnout is High, have you voted" email as part of their GOTV operation (timed 16:34).
Somebody, somewhere thinks that this is a real emergency email instead of a standard pre-programmed one, the later being what I have assumed it is.
No idea which is right or which is wrong.
WillS.
The golden mantra should be No One Knows Anything (Except 3 people in a locked room) ... until about 15 seconds past 10 PM.0 -
Wasn't the RCS call yesterday an 80 seat Con majority. With MOE and the MRF so close in many seats, that could also be a comfortable 100 plus plus, plus majority or a hung Parliament.Fysics_Teacher said:
He’s also in the USA.funkhauser said:kinabalu said:
What was the final Herdson call? I missed it.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think a hung parliament is becoming more likely and my reason for saying it are as follows
Large youth turnout in London and possibility of IDS and Raab losing
HYUFD was far from confident today
Little if any information from the red wall and beyond which you would expect if big gains
Poor weather across most of the country and early dark evenings
Rumours of smaller postal votes being received
The pound and betting markets falling confidence
Is this the David Herdson moment of 2017
RCS is usually pretty accurate.
Not that that means he is wrong.0 -
Labour will be delighted to see the rain now clearing eastwards ready for the peak time for their more core demographics to come out .
The back edge of the rain is now into west London and should have cleared through most parts by 7 pm which gives them a dry slot all the way through to 10 pm .
It might though hang on in East Anglia but that’s hardly a bastion of Labour support so won’t make much difference.0 -
We’ve heard little from the Tories too though. That to me suggests it’s very close.speedy2 said:
As I noticed.CorrectHorseBattery said:Still surprised we’ve heard little from the north
People usually like to report increases in turnout not decreases.
Beyond the M25 silence, unless you live an a heavy student area.
I translate it as: turnout higher where Corbyn is popular, lower where he is not.0 -
US exit polls are of much worse quality than ours.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/rosspolitics/status/1205181247510765568
I said this a couple of days ago...0 -
What do you think the final value of the bet fair market will be?
£18 million?0 -
Why does it mean that?CorrectHorseBattery said:
We’ve heard little from the Tories too though. That to me suggests it’s very close.speedy2 said:
As I noticed.CorrectHorseBattery said:Still surprised we’ve heard little from the north
People usually like to report increases in turnout not decreases.
Beyond the M25 silence, unless you live an a heavy student area.
I translate it as: turnout higher where Corbyn is popular, lower where he is not.0 -
CorrectHorseBattery said:
https://twitter.com/rosspolitics/status/1205181247510765568
I said this a couple of days ago...
I think the phrase we use on here: president kerry thanks you for the confidence in the exit poll.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/rosspolitics/status/1205181247510765568
I said this a couple of days ago...0 -
Harry Cole says Tories confident in Kensington, but not in Esher...0
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People are talking about Davids 2017 call i thinkkinabalu said:
Seen his call. It's the same as mine.funkhauser said:RCS is usually pretty accurate.
But I missed the one from David Herdson.0 -
What happens if you simply must but Ben Stokes is closing in on both his century and the runs to win the 5th and final test of the Ashes with the series 2/2?Time_to_Leave said:If I’m watching England bat live my feet mustn’t touch the floor. Resting on a drinks bottle or something is ok but never the floor. Whenever I need a wee I fear for the total.
You don't HAVE to answer.1 -
https://twitter.com/RossPolitics/status/1205185909114707968Chris said:
He's hinting the polls are wrong. He must know something. What has he heard?TheScreamingEagles said:Listen to David
https://twitter.com/RossPolitics/status/12051809080321884173 -
CorrectHorseBattery said:
I know polls have said for weeks Tories are around 40 but what if they drop below 40 and Labour stay around 32-36. That could happen entirely due to turnout.
Pretty unlikely imo - look at last election, May repeatedly shooting herself in the foot, and still got 42.4% (only marginally less than Blair got in his biggest landslide). That vote is solid imo.
Labour's hope is the squeeze on the LDs/Greens, coming out with around a 36-42, and with a bit of fortune wrt vote distribution could result in Cons on 310ish. Johnson is then stuck, possibly unable to pass the WA, looking a bit impotent and directionless, and a 2nd election might see things closer.0 -
I thought Chris was being ironic.TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/RossPolitics/status/1205185909114707968Chris said:
He's hinting the polls are wrong. He must know something. What has he heard?TheScreamingEagles said:Listen to David
https://twitter.com/RossPolitics/status/12051809080321884170 -
The Tories if they've got any brain cells are going to say it's too close to call or nothing at all. They are not going to be swinging dicks until 9am tomorrow when the majority is concrete - or not, as the case may be.CorrectHorseBattery said:
We’ve heard little from the Tories too though. That to me suggests it’s very close.speedy2 said:
As I noticed.CorrectHorseBattery said:Still surprised we’ve heard little from the north
People usually like to report increases in turnout not decreases.
Beyond the M25 silence, unless you live an a heavy student area.
I translate it as: turnout higher where Corbyn is popular, lower where he is not.
They may have confiscated personal phones at CCHQ....0 -
That's so transparent.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Ever get the feeling that you are in a further remake of "Day of the Body Snatchers"? Perhaps we have to face the fact that only the trashing of the economy to demonstrate that Corbynism can't work will rid us of it?0
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Yes, I know. That was legendary apparently.bigjohnowls said:People are talking about Davids 2017 call i think
Which is why I was sorry to miss his call for this one - if he did one?0 -
'Kin hell, every election I've been involved has involved all the parties saying that privately and publicly.CorrectHorseBattery said:2 -
Basically Corbyn is getting his Student, London vote out, but no one else.CorrectHorseBattery said:
We’ve heard little from the Tories too though. That to me suggests it’s very close.speedy2 said:
As I noticed.CorrectHorseBattery said:Still surprised we’ve heard little from the north
People usually like to report increases in turnout not decreases.
Beyond the M25 silence, unless you live an a heavy student area.
I translate it as: turnout higher where Corbyn is popular, lower where he is not.
But the Conservatives might not get their vote out anywhere.
Very low enthusiasm.
You could see both the Conservative and Labour vote crash towards abstaintion outside of London.
Lower turnout than last time could be the only sure bet.0 -
Surely by definition, the ones who are spending their time on the Facebook groups aren't going to be the ones in closest contact with the voters?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Or Colonel Nicholson at the end of Bridge Over the River Kwai when he realises he's aided and collaborated with the Fascistic & brutish enemy and betrayed his own side. I'll give it 2-3 months for the BJorg to get to that stage after a BJ landslide.TheScreamingEagles said:
So long as it isn't like Reginald Dyer at Jallianwala Bagh.Sean_F said:
Quite right. We need to display the spirit of Brigadier John Nicholson, at the Siege of Delhi.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I am sure PB Tories will have an opportunity to switch from blind panic back to smug triumphalism in a few hours. I always imagine that PB Tories think of themselves as heirs to their imperial forebears, maintaining their stiff upper lips while the lesser races are consumed by their emotions, calmly putting down a Pashtun uprising or relieving Mafeking. On present form they are more Corporal Jones than General Gordon. Show some backbone, PB Tories. Playing fields of Eton! Your man has this!CorrectHorseBattery said:Never change PB
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