politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2019 polling race: The pollsters ranked by the CON lead
Comments
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Its an opinion, we all have them.saddened said:
7 AM - 10 PM, nobody is disenfranchised. If you can't find 30 mins to vote, you don't want to.noneoftheabove said:
Many are disenfranchised by no weekend voting, or by not having the right flavour passport.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe but many would be disenfranchised if they could not postal votenoneoftheabove said:
I dont agree with the previous poster but acceptable is the wrong word imo. They are allowed their thoughts on what is and isnt a proper vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabledkinabalu said:
No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?Richard_Tyndall said:No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.
How are you calling it btw?
Sorry but that is not really acceptable
I would prefer voting at weekends, voting for residents who have been here 5+ years but dont happen to have the right flavour passport, but others dont want that.
I fail to see why people shouldnt be able to express their disdain for certain categories of voting, when in reality everyone has some view on who should be able to vote and how.0 -
Boris would probably look at the dog and say "well that looks a jolly jape, I'll have a go at that myself when I get home"alb1on said:
The staff get distracted by the dog humping the table leg whilst Boris humps the other leg.Time_to_Leave said:Boris taking his dog to the polling station is clever electioneering. He’s appearing all over the shop.
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I hope you replied "it's between a clown and an anti-semite and a clown and an Islamophobe". (Commas discretionary)rcs1000 said:Here in Los Angeles, the only question I've had was "So, your election's between a clown and an anti-semite, right?"
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He is referring to all makers of bullshit productskle4 said:
Obviously such things are not designed to cause somebody to suddenly switch their view, they're part of the ongoing process of building an image or brand, or just getting more visibility.Benpointer said:
Wtf? "I really wish I could decide how to vote. Oh, wait, Boris is taking his dog to the polling station. That settles it - I'm voting for the dog!"Time_to_Leave said:Boris taking his dog to the polling station is clever electioneering. He’s appearing all over the shop.
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Get your beauty sleep.Benpointer said:
We are in for a long night IMO
Something I didnt realise until today Dennis has been in hospital for the whole campaign.
I am back on him in the Constituency betting but DYOR.
Too many cars today trying to help him retain the seat.
I was turned away.0 -
That’s not fair. There’s also a non-entity, and a Krankie.rcs1000 said:Here in Los Angeles, the only question I've had was "So, your election's between a clown and an anti-semite, right?"
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No offence but it's amazing how much can be written based on nothing concrete.
It reminds me of 1997 in Mitcham & Morden. Tory canvassers there were convinced they were going to buck the national trend and increase their slim majority. In fact they suffered an enormous defeat on a huge swing, and the Labour MP is still there today.0 -
Not in big cities, not at all.kinabalu said:
Well I would lump on if I wasn't already positioned that way for a slightly scary amount. Will the Cons REALLY pick up a ton of WC Labour seats though? When those people are in the ballot box will they actually go ahead and do it? Is Brexit so important to them as to risk being called class traitors by their nearest and dearest?Philip_Thompson said:Absolutely. Has there ever been an election before where the polls averaged a 10% lead and you could get 1.48 for a majority? Staggering, but I think nobody is taking anything for granted yet.
But, in smaller urban areas in the North and Midlands, the drift away from Labour has been taking place over a long time. It's rather like the way people refused to believe, pre-1997, that places like Leeds NE, Leeds NW, Bristol West, Edinburgh Pentlands, Birmingham Edgbaston were on the point of voting Labour, simply because they never had done before.0 -
No. But the numbers have refreshed on BF, and not necessarily in this punter's favour. Much more like 1.02 in each case now.isam said:
CON under 325 you mean?Drutt said:Dutching your BF backing pennies between CON maj and NOM works out at 1.07.
That has to be a good value way of effectively backing LAB under 325 (otherwise about 1.02)?0 -
“Nothing concrete” eh? Must be good for Labour....Andy_JS said:No offence but it's amazing how much can be written based on nothing concrete.
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Odd posting for a supposed journalist to make.... sounds more like an activist?Brom said:https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205165468044185605
This sounds a bit defeatist. Not sure Owen Jones knows much more than the rest of us though.1 -
Would people be interested in real time betting numbers on the spreadsheet? And if so, which ones? I have put up Betfair Tory O/M up just as a test.0
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Brexit Party not standing in 2017 Tory won seats certainly helps the Tories not go backwards - but having asymmetric swing between the two sets of seats really does make it tricky. The extent of the swing in those marginals the Tories must gain is perhaps obscured. 10% lead should be enough. 5% - not so much.nico67 said:
Very funny ! As much as I’d like it to be a 2017 repeat I can’t see it happening .Pulpstar said:
I even wrote a piece on how this isn't 2017 which I'm starting to get the willies about !nico67 said:It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .
I think I can understand though how some Tory supporters are suffering an emotional rollercoaster . I think the problem is what sort of lead guarantees a majority .
There might be more tactical voting this time , and even with a big lead the situation in Scotland is complicated.
We don’t really know about turnout barring these reports from people at some of the polling stations , I suspect though it will be higher in Remain areas but because the Tories have managed to keep onside many of their Remainers it might not be so damaging .
I think it’s a bit more unpredictable overall with loads of different dynamics in play .
Anyway, I could be any serener if I was a Williams sister.
*makes a grab for another bag of compulsively eaten popcorn, despite hating the stuff.....*0 -
ramp alertmelcf said:Seems like Labour has managed a higher or more enthusiastic turnout, than expected.
Wouldn't be suprised, if this last minute surge, brings Labour in the 36-39% range.0 -
Depends how “real time”. In 2017 I needed a “bloody hell it was supposed to be a Tory majority how do I salvage my betting position” button. If you can do me one of those that would be great.FrancisUrquhart said:Would people be interested in real time betting numbers on the spreadsheet? And if so, which ones? I have put up Betfair Tory O/M up just as a test.
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Boris has always appeared all over the shop to me.Time_to_Leave said:Boris taking his dog to the polling station is clever electioneering. He’s appearing all over the shop.
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Too much information.Nigel_Foremain said:
He will probably be proposing to anyone that offers him a blowjobkle4 said:Will Boris be proposing to Carrie if he gets a landslide?
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It's a fact. Not an opinion.noneoftheabove said:
Its an opinion, we all have them.saddened said:
7 AM - 10 PM, nobody is disenfranchised. If you can't find 30 mins to vote, you don't want to.noneoftheabove said:
Many are disenfranchised by no weekend voting, or by not having the right flavour passport.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe but many would be disenfranchised if they could not postal votenoneoftheabove said:
I dont agree with the previous poster but acceptable is the wrong word imo. They are allowed their thoughts on what is and isnt a proper vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabledkinabalu said:
No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?Richard_Tyndall said:No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.
How are you calling it btw?
Sorry but that is not really acceptable
I would prefer voting at weekends, voting for residents who have been here 5+ years but dont happen to have the right flavour passport, but others dont want that.
I fail to see why people shouldnt be able to express their disdain for certain categories of voting, when in reality everyone has some view on who should be able to vote and how.0 -
From afar it looks like most of any surge of young voters there might be is happening in seats Labour would expect to win anyway based on the most recent polling.melcf said:Seems like Labour has managed a higher or more enthusiastic turnout, than expected.
Wouldn't be suprised, if this last minute surge, brings Labour in the 36-39% range.
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Less than 3 hours left to vote for 31,000 people here in marginal Wolverhampton.
https://www.expressandstar.com/sport/football/wolverhampton-wanderers-fc/2019/11/27/parking-fears-over-wolves-europa-league-clash-on-general-election-night/0 -
You had mine from North East Wales marginals at 2pm.WhisperingOracle said:It does look as if turnout could be lower in the north so far, outside the cities. Could change later though.
Still need more reports from Wales.
We’ve had both weather and turnout occurring, with scattered showers of brisk, slowing down later,
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Sorry, truth hurts ehsquareroot2 said:
ramp alertmelcf said:Seems like Labour has managed a higher or more enthusiastic turnout, than expected.
Wouldn't be suprised, if this last minute surge, brings Labour in the 36-39% range.0 -
Andecdata - first geniune election in the former Peoples Republic of Bercow for many years. Looked like lots of 'ticks' already showing on the address lists.
Put 3 down for former Tory Dorrell and 1 down for the current Tory (v reluctantly by yours truly).
I wonder if Lib Dems will surprise on the upside now after managing expectations so well with their pants campaign?0 -
Sorry to be a bore but could you link to the s/s? ta.FrancisUrquhart said:Would people be interested in real time betting numbers on the spreadsheet? And if so, which ones? I have put up Betfair Tory O/M up just as a test.
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Just voted in Pontefract, turnout, and I quote, ‘steady’.0
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Well at the moment it is pining Betfair every 15s. I can obviously ping it faster.Time_to_Leave said:
Depends how “real time”. In 2017 I needed a “bloody hell it was supposed to be a Tory majority how do I salvage my betting position” button. If you can do me one of those that would be great.FrancisUrquhart said:Would people be interested in real time betting numbers on the spreadsheet? And if so, which ones? I have put up Betfair Tory O/M up just as a test.
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His dog?Nigel_Foremain said:
He will probably be proposing to anyone that offers him a blowjobkle4 said:Will Boris be proposing to Carrie if he gets a landslide?
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morning all...
sorry if this has been asked already but is there a list of estimated declaration times?0 -
and with that, back to you in the studio John.RobinWiggs said:
You had mine from North East Wales marginals at 2pm.WhisperingOracle said:It does look as if turnout could be lower in the north so far, outside the cities. Could change later though.
Still need more reports from Wales.
We’ve had both weather and turnout occurring, with scattered showers of brisk, slowing down later,
Thanks Robin. Looks wild out there ! Robin Wiggs, our Wales correspondent, on the spot in Wales there.
In other news..
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Just voted near Cowbridge. I pondered and pondered. Who are Gwlad, Gwlad ( auto correct didn't like them either). Their candidate lived in Bexleyheath anyway. Only other choices were the Greens, Cairns and the National Socialists. Did I get the last bit right?0
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At GE2010 Cameron's Tories had a 7.2% national vote share lead and were 20 seats short of a majority.0
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Well, there's disruption on GWR services out of Paddington this evening. Could affect Thames Valley constituencies' turnout a bit (although I think a lot of us voted this morning. The polling booth was busier than I remember it at 7:00 this morning); that kind of thing is outside (apparently) anyone's control but the Almighty. And, on the evidence, he's a total b*st*rd.saddened said:
7 AM - 10 PM, nobody is disenfranchised. If you can't find 30 mins to vote, you don't want to.noneoftheabove said:
Many are disenfranchised by no weekend voting, or by not having the right flavour passport.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe but many would be disenfranchised if they could not postal votenoneoftheabove said:
I dont agree with the previous poster but acceptable is the wrong word imo. They are allowed their thoughts on what is and isnt a proper vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabledkinabalu said:
No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?Richard_Tyndall said:No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.
How are you calling it btw?
Sorry but that is not really acceptable
I would prefer voting at weekends, voting for residents who have been here 5+ years but dont happen to have the right flavour passport, but others dont want that.
I fail to see why people shouldnt be able to express their disdain for certain categories of voting, when in reality everyone has some view on who should be able to vote and how.0 -
Because they haven't identified enough Labour voters to take to the polling stations. Is all.bigjohnowls said:
Get your beauty sleep.Benpointer said:
We are in for a long night IMO
Something I didnt realise until today Dennis has been in hospital for the whole campaign.
I am back on him in the Constituency betting but DYOR.
Too many cars today trying to help him retain the seat.
I was turned away.0 -
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA/IshmaelZ said:
Sorry to be a bore but could you link to the s/s? ta.FrancisUrquhart said:Would people be interested in real time betting numbers on the spreadsheet? And if so, which ones? I have put up Betfair Tory O/M up just as a test.
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I got the same email. Must admit, I’m looking forward to the Cabinet getting back to running the country instead of writing emails to me twice a day.TheScreamingEagles said:Boris Johnson has just personally told me this
‘our teams on the ground are reporting a high Labour turnout. So have you voted yet? Have your friends and family?’
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I am sure he has thought about trying itmelcf said:
His dog?Nigel_Foremain said:
He will probably be proposing to anyone that offers him a blowjobkle4 said:Will Boris be proposing to Carrie if he gets a landslide?
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Sorry yes.Drutt said:
No. But the numbers have refreshed on BF, and not necessarily in this punter's favour. Much more like 1.02 in each case now.isam said:
CON under 325 you mean?Drutt said:Dutching your BF backing pennies between CON maj and NOM works out at 1.07.
That has to be a good value way of effectively backing LAB under 325 (otherwise about 1.02)?
Could you do it at 1.07? Laying Lab maj at 16/1 ish??0 -
That's on @FrancisUrquhart 's excellent sheet - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA/edit#gid=669939416spudgfsh said:morning all...
sorry if this has been asked already but is there a list of estimated declaration times?
Check out the seat tab.0 -
Does it help them? Look at rabbs worries with his majority, what swallowing brexit party may have done is make Boris Tories look like populist front more than traditional conservative, in some areas good look, in liberal conservative remain areas strategic blunderMarqueeMark said:
Brexit Party not standing in 2017 Tory won seats certainly helps the Tories not go backwards - but having asymmetric swing between the two sets of seats really does make it tricky. The extent of the swing in those marginals the Tories must gain is perhaps obscured. 10% lead should be enough. 5% - not so much.nico67 said:
Very funny ! As much as I’d like it to be a 2017 repeat I can’t see it happening .Pulpstar said:
I even wrote a piece on how this isn't 2017 which I'm starting to get the willies about !nico67 said:It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .
I think I can understand though how some Tory supporters are suffering an emotional rollercoaster . I think the problem is what sort of lead guarantees a majority .
There might be more tactical voting this time , and even with a big lead the situation in Scotland is complicated.
We don’t really know about turnout barring these reports from people at some of the polling stations , I suspect though it will be higher in Remain areas but because the Tories have managed to keep onside many of their Remainers it might not be so damaging .
I think it’s a bit more unpredictable overall with loads of different dynamics in play .
Anyway, I could be any serener if I was a Williams sister.
*makes a grab for another bag of compulsively eaten popcorn, despite hating the stuff.....*0 -
Anyway, ladies and gentlemen, you have had TWO THIRDS OF YOUR TIME TO VOTE.0
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The Betfair market is clearly spooked. How much of that is city people in the London bubble, who knows.0
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That last one is the new name for the Brexit PartyMexicanpete said:Just voted near Cowbridge. I pondered and pondered. Who are Gwlad, Gwlad ( auto correct didn't like them either). Their candidate lived in Bexleyheath anyway. Only other choices were the Greens, Cairns and the National Socialists. Did I get the last bit right?
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You have no idea what the turnout is, nobody does, you are just guessingmelcf said:
Sorry, truth hurts ehsquareroot2 said:
ramp alertmelcf said:Seems like Labour has managed a higher or more enthusiastic turnout, than expected.
Wouldn't be suprised, if this last minute surge, brings Labour in the 36-39% range.0 -
Main reason being Lib Dems were polling double what they are now.MikeSmithson said:At GE2010 Cameron's Tories had a 7.2% national vote share lead and were 20 seats short of a majority.
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That was reduced slightly to 6.6% in 2015 and they won a majority of 12.MikeSmithson said:At GE2010 Cameron's Tories had a 7.2% national vote share lead and were 20 seats short of a majority.
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If Con under 325 is 1.02.Fysics_Teacher said:
NOM at circa 3.0 is a bargain.
Although IMO 3.0 is about right0 -
In six weeks, I haven't met a single voter who articulated anything close to that.egg said:
Does it help them? Look at rabbs worries with his majority, what swallowing brexit party may have done is make Boris Tories look like populist front more than traditional conservative, in some areas good look, in liberal conservative remain areas strategic blunderMarqueeMark said:
Brexit Party not standing in 2017 Tory won seats certainly helps the Tories not go backwards - but having asymmetric swing between the two sets of seats really does make it tricky. The extent of the swing in those marginals the Tories must gain is perhaps obscured. 10% lead should be enough. 5% - not so much.nico67 said:
Very funny ! As much as I’d like it to be a 2017 repeat I can’t see it happening .Pulpstar said:
I even wrote a piece on how this isn't 2017 which I'm starting to get the willies about !nico67 said:It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .
I think I can understand though how some Tory supporters are suffering an emotional rollercoaster . I think the problem is what sort of lead guarantees a majority .
There might be more tactical voting this time , and even with a big lead the situation in Scotland is complicated.
We don’t really know about turnout barring these reports from people at some of the polling stations , I suspect though it will be higher in Remain areas but because the Tories have managed to keep onside many of their Remainers it might not be so damaging .
I think it’s a bit more unpredictable overall with loads of different dynamics in play .
Anyway, I could be any serener if I was a Williams sister.
*makes a grab for another bag of compulsively eaten popcorn, despite hating the stuff.....*0 -
tyvmFrancisUrquhart said:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA/IshmaelZ said:
Sorry to be a bore but could you link to the s/s? ta.FrancisUrquhart said:Would people be interested in real time betting numbers on the spreadsheet? And if so, which ones? I have put up Betfair Tory O/M up just as a test.
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I agree the BP has made it even more difficult to work out . Are you sure it’s just popcorn ? Or is it too early to drink !MarqueeMark said:
Brexit Party not standing in 2017 Tory won seats certainly helps the Tories not go backwards - but having asymmetric swing between the two sets of seats really does make it tricky. The extent of the swing in those marginals the Tories must gain is perhaps obscured. 10% lead should be enough. 5% - not so much.nico67 said:
Very funny ! As much as I’d like it to be a 2017 repeat I can’t see it happening .Pulpstar said:
I even wrote a piece on how this isn't 2017 which I'm starting to get the willies about !nico67 said:It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .
I think I can understand though how some Tory supporters are suffering an emotional rollercoaster . I think the problem is what sort of lead guarantees a majority .
There might be more tactical voting this time , and even with a big lead the situation in Scotland is complicated.
We don’t really know about turnout barring these reports from people at some of the polling stations , I suspect though it will be higher in Remain areas but because the Tories have managed to keep onside many of their Remainers it might not be so damaging .
I think it’s a bit more unpredictable overall with loads of different dynamics in play .
Anyway, I could be any serener if I was a Williams sister.
*makes a grab for another bag of compulsively eaten popcorn, despite hating the stuff.....*0 -
It's worth remembering that last time the Tories did better than the exit poll with the first few results to be declared from the North East which led Peter Kellner to say that maybe the Tories would get a majority after all. That came to an end when Swindon North was declared a bit later and was in line with the exit poll.0
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Why?MikeSmithson said:At GE2010 Cameron's Tories had a 7.2% national vote share lead and were 20 seats short of a majority.
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Must have all voted already!!MarqueeMark said:
Because they haven't identified enough Labour voters to take to the polling stations. Is all.bigjohnowls said:
Get your beauty sleep.Benpointer said:
We are in for a long night IMO
Something I didnt realise until today Dennis has been in hospital for the whole campaign.
I am back on him in the Constituency betting but DYOR.
Too many cars today trying to help him retain the seat.
I was turned away.0 -
It was the straw that ensured I will definitely not be voting Tory for the first time in 8 GEs!egg said:
Does it help them? Look at rabbs worries with his majority, what swallowing brexit party may have done is make Boris Tories look like populist front more than traditional conservative, in some areas good look, in liberal conservative remain areas strategic blunderMarqueeMark said:
Brexit Party not standing in 2017 Tory won seats certainly helps the Tories not go backwards - but having asymmetric swing between the two sets of seats really does make it tricky. The extent of the swing in those marginals the Tories must gain is perhaps obscured. 10% lead should be enough. 5% - not so much.nico67 said:
Very funny ! As much as I’d like it to be a 2017 repeat I can’t see it happening .Pulpstar said:
I even wrote a piece on how this isn't 2017 which I'm starting to get the willies about !nico67 said:It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .
I think I can understand though how some Tory supporters are suffering an emotional rollercoaster . I think the problem is what sort of lead guarantees a majority .
There might be more tactical voting this time , and even with a big lead the situation in Scotland is complicated.
We don’t really know about turnout barring these reports from people at some of the polling stations , I suspect though it will be higher in Remain areas but because the Tories have managed to keep onside many of their Remainers it might not be so damaging .
I think it’s a bit more unpredictable overall with loads of different dynamics in play .
Anyway, I could be any serener if I was a Williams sister.
*makes a grab for another bag of compulsively eaten popcorn, despite hating the stuff.....*0 -
That spreadsheet really is awesome.3
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Gwlad Gwald describe themselves as a Welsh nationalist centre right pro-Brexit Party.Nigel_Foremain said:
That last one is the new name for the Brexit PartyMexicanpete said:Just voted near Cowbridge. I pondered and pondered. Who are Gwlad, Gwlad ( auto correct didn't like them either). Their candidate lived in Bexleyheath anyway. Only other choices were the Greens, Cairns and the National Socialists. Did I get the last bit right?
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cheers.RobD said:
That's on @FrancisUrquhart 's excellent sheet - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA/edit#gid=669939416spudgfsh said:morning all...
sorry if this has been asked already but is there a list of estimated declaration times?
Check out the seat tab.0 -
Owen Jones using a quote from Boris Johnson as a FACT?Scrapheap_as_was said:
Odd posting for a supposed journalist to make.... sounds more like an activist?Brom said:https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205165468044185605
This sounds a bit defeatist. Not sure Owen Jones knows much more than the rest of us though.0 -
More importantly I’ll be tucking into a spaghetti bolognese and a pint of a lager in less than 2 hours.MarqueeMark said:Anyway, ladies and gentlemen, you have had TWO THIRDS OF YOUR TIME TO VOTE.
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At least the begging letters have stopped - after I wrote into HQ telling them to bugger off with their e-mails, as some of us were working bloody hard in the field to get our candidates elected.RobinWiggs said:
I got the same email. Must admit, I’m looking forward to the Cabinet getting back to running the country instead of writing emails to me twice a day.TheScreamingEagles said:Boris Johnson has just personally told me this
‘our teams on the ground are reporting a high Labour turnout. So have you voted yet? Have your friends and family?’1 -
I think we can say that the Swin-gasm isn't going to materialise tonight, save for the possible Raab unseating.Brom said:
Main reason being Lib Dems were polling double what they are now.MikeSmithson said:At GE2010 Cameron's Tories had a 7.2% national vote share lead and were 20 seats short of a majority.
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two pints and a [packet of crisps would be more effectiveGallowgate said:
More importantly I’ll be tucking into a spaghetti bolognese and a pint of a lager in less than 2 hours.MarqueeMark said:Anyway, ladies and gentlemen, you have had TWO THIRDS OF YOUR TIME TO VOTE.
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..and that is something the whole nation can rally around.Gallowgate said:
More importantly I’ll be tucking into a spaghetti bolognese and a pint of a lager in less than 2 hours.MarqueeMark said:Anyway, ladies and gentlemen, you have had TWO THIRDS OF YOUR TIME TO VOTE.
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Sunderland Central was Lab 45% Con 30% with the latest YouGov MRP.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LfRjAazZUbSjAOQ0w_ctAPWKfi5hBKilNj0LvuIZp9U/edit#gid=00 -
My fear is that the Midlands in particular will go blue blue blue. They went for Thatcher in a way that places like South Yorkshire and the North East did not.Sean_F said:Not in big cities, not at all.
But, in smaller urban areas in the North and Midlands, the drift away from Labour has been taking place over a long time. It's rather like the way people refused to believe, pre-1997, that places like Leeds NE, Leeds NW, Bristol West, Edinburgh Pentlands, Birmingham Edgbaston were on the point of voting Labour, simply because they never had done before.
And there was that CH4 vox pop from Brum with the oiky guy saying how Boris was a "lovable buffoon" who was a "straight talker". That shook me up.
I just don't trust them.0 -
Working tonight but should be free by 8am tomorrow, to post the same.saddened said:
Been good reading your posts. Shame we won't be seeing you again after 10PM.melcf said:Seems like Labour has managed a higher or more enthusiastic turnout, than expected.
Wouldn't be suprised, if this last minute surge, brings Labour in the 36-39% range.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oxDwxNcURTU0 -
Keep whistiing. It's dark - and this night will be long......bigjohnowls said:
Must have all voted already!!MarqueeMark said:
Because they haven't identified enough Labour voters to take to the polling stations. Is all.bigjohnowls said:
Get your beauty sleep.Benpointer said:
We are in for a long night IMO
Something I didnt realise until today Dennis has been in hospital for the whole campaign.
I am back on him in the Constituency betting but DYOR.
Too many cars today trying to help him retain the seat.
I was turned away.0 -
The much awaited Murali_s final seat projection for GE19 has been released and it's reasonably good news for the PB Tories. The Tories on course for a majority of 4!
C: 327
L: 237
LD: 18
SNP: 45
OTH: 23
Margin of error +/- 20 seats for C, L; +/- 5 seats for LD, SNP.
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Still a major swing in fairness.Andy_JS said:Sunderland Central was Lab 45% Con 30% with the latest YouGov MRP.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LfRjAazZUbSjAOQ0w_ctAPWKfi5hBKilNj0LvuIZp9U/edit#gid=00 -
That aligns with my guess!murali_s said:The much awaited Murali_s final seat projection for GE19 has been released and it's reasonably good news for the PB Tories. The Tories on course for a majority of 4!
C: 327
L: 237
LD: 18
SNP: 45
OTH: 23
Margin of error +/- 20 seats for C, L; +/- 5 seats for LD, SNP.0 -
Does anyone know if the turnout odds have moved today?
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Jones is basically an activist - albeit one in the same class as Izzard.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Odd posting for a supposed journalist to make.... sounds more like an activist?Brom said:https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205165468044185605
This sounds a bit defeatist. Not sure Owen Jones knows much more than the rest of us though.0 -
You don't trust who? The Tories or West MIdlands voters?kinabalu said:
My fear is that the Midlands in particular will go blue blue blue. They went for Thatcher in a way that places like South Yorkshire and the North East did not.Sean_F said:Not in big cities, not at all.
But, in smaller urban areas in the North and Midlands, the drift away from Labour has been taking place over a long time. It's rather like the way people refused to believe, pre-1997, that places like Leeds NE, Leeds NW, Bristol West, Edinburgh Pentlands, Birmingham Edgbaston were on the point of voting Labour, simply because they never had done before.
And there was that CH4 vox pop from Brum with the oiky guy saying how Boris was a "lovable buffoon" who was a "straight talker". That shook me up.
I just don't trust them.0 -
Giving us some posts on your own time, huh? Very generous.melcf said:
Working tonight but should be free by 8am tomorrow, to post the same.saddened said:
Been good reading your posts. Shame we won't be seeing you again after 10PM.melcf said:Seems like Labour has managed a higher or more enthusiastic turnout, than expected.
Wouldn't be suprised, if this last minute surge, brings Labour in the 36-39% range.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oxDwxNcURTU
Or are you one of those 400 employees Labour let go?0 -
I don't think there will be too many people saddened by his defenestration if it happens.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I think we can say that the Swin-gasm isn't going to materialise tonight, save for the possible Raab unseating.Brom said:
Main reason being Lib Dems were polling double what they are now.MikeSmithson said:At GE2010 Cameron's Tories had a 7.2% national vote share lead and were 20 seats short of a majority.
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Train disruption in this country isn't exactly an unusual occurrence.Animal_pb said:
Well, there's disruption on GWR services out of Paddington this evening. Could affect Thames Valley constituencies' turnout a bit (although I think a lot of us voted this morning. The polling booth was busier than I remember it at 7:00 this morning); that kind of thing is outside (apparently) anyone's control but the Almighty. And, on the evidence, he's a total b*st*rd.saddened said:
7 AM - 10 PM, nobody is disenfranchised. If you can't find 30 mins to vote, you don't want to.noneoftheabove said:
Many are disenfranchised by no weekend voting, or by not having the right flavour passport.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe but many would be disenfranchised if they could not postal votenoneoftheabove said:
I dont agree with the previous poster but acceptable is the wrong word imo. They are allowed their thoughts on what is and isnt a proper vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabledkinabalu said:
No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?Richard_Tyndall said:No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.
How are you calling it btw?
Sorry but that is not really acceptable
I would prefer voting at weekends, voting for residents who have been here 5+ years but dont happen to have the right flavour passport, but others dont want that.
I fail to see why people shouldnt be able to express their disdain for certain categories of voting, when in reality everyone has some view on who should be able to vote and how.0 -
0
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I am done for the day.
quite encouraging despite torrential drizzle and floods of less than Biblical proportions.
See you guys at 9.55pm1 -
You've suddenly become less credulous?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/toryfibs/status/1205174434174316547
This sounds like bollocks
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Well there's Boris, Mrs Raab and er...Nigel_Foremain said:
I don't think there will be too many people saddened by his defenestration if it happens.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I think we can say that the Swin-gasm isn't going to materialise tonight, save for the possible Raab unseating.Brom said:
Main reason being Lib Dems were polling double what they are now.MikeSmithson said:At GE2010 Cameron's Tories had a 7.2% national vote share lead and were 20 seats short of a majority.
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that party name sounds like Biggus Dickus announcing how pweased he is!3ChordTrick said:
Gwlad Gwald describe themselves as a Welsh nationalist centre right pro-Brexit Party.Nigel_Foremain said:
That last one is the new name for the Brexit PartyMexicanpete said:Just voted near Cowbridge. I pondered and pondered. Who are Gwlad, Gwlad ( auto correct didn't like them either). Their candidate lived in Bexleyheath anyway. Only other choices were the Greens, Cairns and the National Socialists. Did I get the last bit right?
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He is a compulsive liar who has been repeatedly in trouble for making shit up. He even made up that he was a doctor when he isn't.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/toryfibs/status/1205174434174316547
This sounds like bollocks0 -
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Its pretty important for Labour to have this rain clearing.
Historically their supporters tend to come out in bigger numbers from around 7 to 10 pm . It’s this period last time according to those on the 2017 exit poll where Mays majority started slipping away .
I remember Michael Thrasher saying this when he was talking about the changes they saw during the day .
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Con maj creeping ever upwards on the markets.0
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I got the same email. Must admit, I’m looking forward to the Cabinet getting back to running the country instead of writing emails to me twice a day.TheScreamingEagles said:Boris Johnson has just personally told me this
‘our teams on the ground are reporting a high Labour turnout. So have you voted yet? Have your friends and family?’
Fewer, not less.RobD said:
You've suddenly become less credulous?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/toryfibs/status/1205174434174316547
This sounds like bollocks
Bloody students.
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If get Brexit and done never again appear in a sentence or indeed anywhere in that order I will be very happy.RobinWiggs said:
I got the same email. Must admit, I’m looking forward to the Cabinet getting back to running the country instead of writing emails to me twice a day.TheScreamingEagles said:Boris Johnson has just personally told me this
‘our teams on the ground are reporting a high Labour turnout. So have you voted yet? Have your friends and family?’
Just off to vote now.0 -
I had assumed they were blood and soil nationalists when I saw the name. I suspect they are. And yet the candidate in the Vale of Glamorgan lives in Bexleyheath.Nigel_Foremain said:
that party name sounds like Biggus Dickus announcing how pweased he is!3ChordTrick said:
Gwlad Gwald describe themselves as a Welsh nationalist centre right pro-Brexit Party.Nigel_Foremain said:
That last one is the new name for the Brexit PartyMexicanpete said:Just voted near Cowbridge. I pondered and pondered. Who are Gwlad, Gwlad ( auto correct didn't like them either). Their candidate lived in Bexleyheath anyway. Only other choices were the Greens, Cairns and the National Socialists. Did I get the last bit right?
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What are the liberal conservative remain areas. In your neck of woods it’s all very brexittyMarqueeMark said:
In six weeks, I haven't met a single voter who articulated anything close to that.egg said:
Does it help them? Look at rabbs worries with his majority, what swallowing brexit party may have done is make Boris Tories look like populist front more than traditional conservative, in some areas good look, in liberal conservative remain areas strategic blunderMarqueeMark said:
Brexit Party not standing in 2017 Tory won seats certainly helps the Tories not go backwards - but having asymmetric swing between the two sets of seats really does make it tricky. The extent of the swing in those marginals the Tories must gain is perhaps obscured. 10% lead should be enough. 5% - not so much.nico67 said:
Very funny ! As much as I’d like it to be a 2017 repeat I can’t see it happening .Pulpstar said:
I even wrote a piece on how this isn't 2017 which I'm starting to get the willies about !nico67 said:It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .
I think I can understand though how some Tory supporters are suffering an emotional rollercoaster . I think the problem is what sort of lead guarantees a majority .
There might be more tactical voting this time , and even with a big lead the situation in Scotland is complicated.
We don’t really know about turnout barring these reports from people at some of the polling stations , I suspect though it will be higher in Remain areas but because the Tories have managed to keep onside many of their Remainers it might not be so damaging .
I think it’s a bit more unpredictable overall with loads of different dynamics in play .
Anyway, I could be any serener if I was a Williams sister.
*makes a grab for another bag of compulsively eaten popcorn, despite hating the stuff.....*
I think a good night for conservatives in south west. So you mightrightly be serene, your problems elsewhere.
That sort lumpy night where Lib Dem’s can take Raab but miss Wells, Cheltenham etc.
Another factor is how conservatives took south west back from Lib Dem’s in 2015, labour supporters hated libdems after coalition years, unfortunate for Lib Dem’s as many seats since nineties built up on tactical coalition, that hatred still alive and well in 2017, look at the size of labour vote in Wells for example, but my anecdotal sis that is over for this one, is that the same sense you got out there?0 -
Somebody posted the possible outcomes for the first 4 or 5 seats likely to declare tonight and what they might mean for the overall results.
I thought i'd saved it but haven't.
Can anybody give me a refresher please?0 -
He banned me on Twitter when I told him he was posting misleading polling figures.Fenster said:
He is a compulsive liar who has been repeatedly in trouble for making shit up. He even made up that he was a doctor when he isn't.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/toryfibs/status/1205174434174316547
This sounds like bollocks0 -
We'll see won't we.melcf said:
Working tonight but should be free by 8am tomorrow, to post the same.saddened said:
Been good reading your posts. Shame we won't be seeing you again after 10PM.melcf said:Seems like Labour has managed a higher or more enthusiastic turnout, than expected.
Wouldn't be suprised, if this last minute surge, brings Labour in the 36-39% range.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oxDwxNcURTU0 -
Yes, it should be 1.2 to 1.25.AlastairMeeks said:The price is now too long at 1.5 based on the information we have available. The Conservatives still may not get an overall majority but they must have upwards of an 80% chance now. So I've lumped on. I'll probably hold this bet to conclusion now.
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Horse .... the pills they be working!RobD said:
You've suddenly become less credulous?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/toryfibs/status/1205174434174316547
This sounds like bollocks0 -
Fewer credulous?RobinWiggs said:
I got the same email. Must admit, I’m looking forward to the Cabinet getting back to running the country instead of writing emails to me twice a day.TheScreamingEagles said:Boris Johnson has just personally told me this
‘our teams on the ground are reporting a high Labour turnout. So have you voted yet? Have your friends and family?’
Fewer, not less.RobD said:
You've suddenly become less credulous?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/toryfibs/status/1205174434174316547
This sounds like bollocks
Bloody students.0 -
At GE2015, Cameron's Tories were 6.5% ahead on the national share of the vote and got a working majority of 12 seats.MikeSmithson said:At GE2010 Cameron's Tories had a 7.2% national vote share lead and were 20 seats short of a majority.
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