politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2019 polling race: The pollsters ranked by the CON lead

First?

kinabalu said:

Cons drifting like a barge in the betting!

Could it be slipping away from "Boris"? Has the nation rumbled him?

Based on what? Voting looks brisk? That's not much to base it on even if he has blown it.

kinabalu said:

Cons drifting like a barge in the betting!

Could it be slipping away from "Boris"? Has the nation rumbled him?

No, all those polls give a bigger Tory lead than 2017

This is tremendous:

Is this Britain's worst polling station?

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire-news/britains-worst-polling-station-17408970#ICID=Android_HuddersfieldExaminerNewsApp_AppShare

kinabalu said:

Cons drifting like a barge in the betting!

Could it be slipping away from "Boris"? Has the nation rumbled him?

They have been settled at about 1.48 for some time

FrancisUrquhart said:

Gabs3 said:

What was the average final polling in 2017?

~6.5%....but the variance was huge.

Pollsters have learnt their lesson since 2017.... haven't they?

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Gabs3 said:

What was the average final polling in 2017?

~6.5%....but the variance was huge.

Pollsters have learnt their lesson since 2017.... haven't they?

Are you trying to set me off into blind panic?

All things considered it's hard to believe that Lab 11% down in the North isn't true. You've got a more favourable Tory leader in Boris, crap weather, a BXP offering more threat than UKIP and 2 extra years of anti Britain pro 2nd ref Corbyn since 2017. I wouldn't be surprised if they are down more in the North and down less in London.

Brom said:

All things considered it's hard to believe than Lab 11% down in the North isn't true. You've got a more favourable Tory leader in Boris, crap weather, a BXP offering more threat than UKIP and 2 extra years of anti Britain pro 2nd ref Corbyn since 2017. I wouldn't be surprised if they are down more in the North and down less in London.

That's my conclusion. When you pair it with the Tories seemingly receding slightly in the leafy rural areas with massive majorities, it looks to be promising for vote efficiency.

Brom said:

All things considered it's hard to believe than Lab 11% down in the North isn't true. You've got a more favourable Tory leader in Boris, crap weather, a BXP offering more threat than UKIP and 2 extra years of anti Britain pro 2nd ref Corbyn since 2017. I wouldn't be surprised if they are down more in the North and down less in London.

Yes Labour flooding Barnet apparently as well as here in Chingford and looking to pick up London seats to make up for northern losses. Hearing Raab under threat in Esher where apparently it looks very close at the moment but hopefully he clings on

kinabalu said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

They have been settled at about 1.48 for some time

Big change from the recent lows though. And a fair bit longer than after the 28 seat YouGov got processed.

I wonder if Remainers are turning out in big numbers and voting super smart?

Or a bit like Brexit, those with the big money in the market exist in a small bubble and seeing big queues in their local area.

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Based on what? Voting looks brisk? That's not much to base it on even if he has blown it.

I really don't know. Has anybody heard anything reliable and fascinating?

Certainly Con maj should be MUCH shorter than the 1.5 mark based on the evidence that I'm aware of.

Everyone is spooked by 2017.

RobD said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Based on what? Voting looks brisk? That's not much to base it on even if he has blown it.

I really don't know. Has anybody heard anything reliable and fascinating?

Certainly Con maj should be MUCH shorter than the 1.5 mark based on the evidence that I'm aware of.

Everyone is spooked by 2017.

Definitely...aren't we all....Most elections when the average poll lead is large i.e. 10%, normally the only talk is just how big the majority will be.

kinabalu said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

They have been settled at about 1.48 for some time

Big change from the recent lows though. And a fair bit longer than after the 28 seat YouGov got processed.

I wonder if Remainers are turning out in big numbers and voting super smart?

In London and the south but unlikely to help in the north

I think it is quite difficult to say with any confidence between a hung parliament or a majority to be honest

kinabalu said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

They have been settled at about 1.48 for some time

Big change from the recent lows though. And a fair bit longer than after the 28 seat YouGov got processed.

I wonder if Remainers are turning out in big numbers and voting super smart?

No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.

Turnout market on betfair doesn't seem to have changed too much. 60-70 still 1.6, 70-80 2.9ish

kinabalu said:

Cons drifting like a barge in the betting!

Could it be slipping away from "Boris"? Has the nation rumbled him?

I'm amazed that you've already got an accurate gauge of turnout and VI

Chameleon said:

Brom said:

All things considered it's hard to believe than Lab 11% down in the North isn't true. You've got a more favourable Tory leader in Boris, crap weather, a BXP offering more threat than UKIP and 2 extra years of anti Britain pro 2nd ref Corbyn since 2017. I wouldn't be surprised if they are down more in the North and down less in London.

That's my conclusion. When you pair it with the Tories seemingly receding slightly in the leafy rural areas with massive majorities, it looks to be promising for vote efficiency.

That's very much my view. I think the Conservatives will slip back slightly in the South where the LDs are way behind (most of the time), but will see their vote hold up (or even increase slightly in the North). I also think BXP will mostly taken Northern Labour Leave voters who can't stomach voting for Johnson, but don't want to vote for Corbyn.

Result: Conservative majority of around 100.

Hasn't everybody got the Exit Poll? I got my emailed to me this morning, a bit like the way Jezza gets the Queen speech.

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Based on what? Voting looks brisk? That's not much to base it on even if he has blown it.

I really don't know. Has anybody heard anything reliable and fascinating?

Certainly Con maj should be MUCH shorter than the 1.5 mark based on the evidence that I'm aware of.

Im pretty sure some of it is nervousness re 2017 and reports of high youth turnout (notwithstanding the fact that the only photo evidence we have for this is from London and Central Manchester seats (I think).

Personally I don’t think anyone has an effing clue what’s going on at this stage in an election. You hear the odd rumour but it’s impossible to corroborate. Heck, look at how the betting odds tend to wiggle all over the place at a by-election before crashing home shortly before the result.

Just got in after GOTV for Lib Dems in Colne Valley. We also have a local by-election in Colne Valley ward. Started in steady drizzle which got heavier and heavier. Many voters will have soggy leaflets. Lib Dems telling but no others. Indeed Labour put in a complaint that the Lib Dems were asking voters for their poll cards. Lots of Labour activity on the streets but no sign of Conservative activity ( probably on the phones). Turnout at noon was about twice the usual.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

In London and the south but unlikely to help in the north

I think it is quite difficult to say with any confidence between a hung parliament or a majority to be honest

No indeed. I have my betting position which pays a packet on big Con win. And I have my political sensibility which takes a battering on same. So I'm incredibly nervous both ways. Cat on a hot tin roof. Want a drink but mustn't. Need to stay very calm. Perhaps some buddhism is in order. Yes, definitely.

Stark_Dawning said:

Ironically, the hype about the Red Firewall might harm Boris. If potential northern Tory converts think that millions of their number are going to vote Tory they might just not bother, saving themselves the ethical problem of engaging in class betrayal. The whole concept might turn out to be a damp squib.

But they don't.. the story has been about Labour closing the gap for weeks now

TrèsDifficile said:

RobD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The available evidence suggests a Conservative majority. The quality of that evidence, however, is not high and it might be misleading.

I like how your new avatar focuses in on the best part of the photo.

The Red Guardian's trousers and the Green Lanterns jumper!

Also, does he have something in his pocket, or is he just pleased to see himself?!

I wasn't talking about the jumper.

*ahem*

Anecdote alert (NW currently blue bellwether swing constituency)

I wrote earlier today that I only received blue leaflets and that there was a blue Teller at my polling station this morning and that I'd seen no evidence of the reds this campaign, however I'd also only just moved into the constituency and had to register to vote after the start of the campaign.

Thought I'd update to say just before I drove past a couple of people going from door to door with red clipboards, red rosettes and "Vote Labour" written on the back of the clipboard. So there is red activity afterall.

Also drove past a polling station in the neighbouring constituency [rock solid safe red] which had no signs of activity but a Police car parked outside the station. Hope nothing has gone wrong to justify the Police being at the polling station, never seen that before.

Do we have odds on what dukedom Curtice will be offered if he gets it right this time?

Stark_Dawning said:

Ironically, the hype about the Red Firewall might harm Boris. If potential northern Tory converts think that millions of their number are going to vote Tory they might just not bother, saving themselves the ethical problem of engaging in class betrayal. The whole concept might turn out to be a damp squib.

If I've learn't anything it is: nothing hurts Johnson but the potential of seeing one of his long lost children.

Philip_Thompson said:

Anecdote alert (NW currently blue bellwether swing constituency)

I wrote earlier today that I only received blue leaflets and that there was a blue Teller at my polling station this morning and that I'd seen no evidence of the reds this campaign, however I'd also only just moved into the constituency and had to register to vote after the start of the campaign.

Thought I'd update to say just before I drove past a couple of people going from door to door with red clipboards, red rosettes and "Vote Labour" written on the back of the clipboard. So there is red activity afterall.

Also drove past a polling station in the neighbouring constituency [rock solid safe red] which had no signs of activity but a Police car parked outside the station. Hope nothing has gone wrong to justify the Police being at the polling station, never seen that before.

Maybe the Police were voting?

#GE2019 Nowcast (12th Dec):

CON: 344 (-1), 43.3% (+0.4)
LAB: 223 (-1), 33.8% (+1.1)
SNP: 45 (+2), 3.7% (-0.2)
LDM: 14 (=), 11.7% (-1.3)

See the graphics for full results.
Changes w/ 6th Dec.

Polls from 9-11 Dec.
Support me on https://t.co/8SlnLyh9g4 https://t.co/jNVQHYMAUU

Time_to_Leave said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Hasn't everybody got the Exit Poll? I got my emailed to me this morning, a bit like the way Jezza gets the Queen speech.

PB Elite members (platinum tier and above) got theirs yesterday.

Those of us who are the real elite wrote it.

Wrote it down.

Diamond tier dictated it.

Diamond tier are a right bunch of dictators.....

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Anecdote alert (NW currently blue bellwether swing constituency)

I wrote earlier today that I only received blue leaflets and that there was a blue Teller at my polling station this morning and that I'd seen no evidence of the reds this campaign, however I'd also only just moved into the constituency and had to register to vote after the start of the campaign.

Thought I'd update to say just before I drove past a couple of people going from door to door with red clipboards, red rosettes and "Vote Labour" written on the back of the clipboard. So there is red activity afterall.

Also drove past a polling station in the neighbouring constituency [rock solid safe red] which had no signs of activity but a Police car parked outside the station. Hope nothing has gone wrong to justify the Police being at the polling station, never seen that before.

Maybe the Police were voting?

I hope that's it. No blue lights or other activity which seems to be a good sign.

Don't forget the Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week)!

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/1205146378135101440

RobD said:

Everyone is spooked by 2017.

That does seem the most likely explanation. In which case, 1.48 Con maj is a standout bet.

I thought it would be 1.2 on the day.

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Anecdote alert (NW currently blue bellwether swing constituency)

I wrote earlier today that I only received blue leaflets and that there was a blue Teller at my polling station this morning and that I'd seen no evidence of the reds this campaign, however I'd also only just moved into the constituency and had to register to vote after the start of the campaign.

Thought I'd update to say just before I drove past a couple of people going from door to door with red clipboards, red rosettes and "Vote Labour" written on the back of the clipboard. So there is red activity afterall.

Also drove past a polling station in the neighbouring constituency [rock solid safe red] which had no signs of activity but a Police car parked outside the station. Hope nothing has gone wrong to justify the Police being at the polling station, never seen that before.

Maybe the Police were voting?

Or maybe the Fascists were stuffing the ballot boxes with Fascists votes. Thought about that, have you? Hmmmm.

#That'sEnoughNowRik

Time_to_Leave said:

MarqueeMark said:

Time_to_Leave said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Hasn't everybody got the Exit Poll? I got my emailed to me this morning, a bit like the way Jezza gets the Queen speech.

PB Elite members (platinum tier and above) got theirs yesterday.

Those of us who are the real elite wrote it.

Wrote it down.

Diamond tier dictated it.

Diamond tier are a right bunch of dictators.....

I thought they were lizards?

There's any conflict?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The Britain Elects poll tracker projects Labour will be down ~11pts (vs. GE2017) in the North of England, compared to 8pts in London, 7pts in the East Midlands, and 5pts in the West Midlands.

Take a look: https://t.co/m1hoBpI81D https://t.co/xEmOOvngPj

8 pts down in London surprises me. I expected them to be hit harder in the Midlands than London. If it is accurate it presages interesting times in seats like the 3 way marginals of Kensington and Cities.

Britain Elects

Contrary to Twitter reports, there have been NO published constituency polls for Uxbridge South & Ruislip.

Find the latest constituency voting intention surveys here:

https://t.co/xTe4Cz8DZc https://t.co/DGgGsd5vxP

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

RobD said:

Everyone is spooked by 2017.

That does seem the most likely explanation. In which case, 1.48 Con maj is a standout bet.

I thought it would be 1.2 on the day.

Absolutely. Has there ever been an election before where the polls averaged a 10% lead and you could get 1.48 for a majority? Staggering, but I think nobody is taking anything for granted yet.

The ghost of 2017 is definitely in the air. On those polls I ought to want to put silly money on it. But I’m scared.

slade said:

Just got in after GOTV for Lib Dems in Colne Valley. We also have a local by-election in Colne Valley ward. Started in steady drizzle which got heavier and heavier. Many voters will have soggy leaflets. Lib Dems telling but no others. Indeed Labour put in a complaint that the Lib Dems were asking voters for their poll cards. Lots of Labour activity on the streets but no sign of Conservative activity ( probably on the phones). Turnout at noon was about twice the usual.

Labour were leafletting Huddersfield station yesterday with non constituency specific flyers, but I presumed the main target to be the bits of town sitting in Colne Valley.

nico67 said:

What’s up with the pound . Do currency speculators know something we don’t .

Just uncertainty before the result. Tory Maj should boost it, obviously a Hung parliament and it is taking a bath.

rcs1000 said:

1. Will Jo Swinson hold her seat? It will be a big win for the LDs if the SNP's gain East Dumbartonshire.

Because then the Lib Dems will get a better leader, you mean?

Richard_Tyndall said:

No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.

No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?

How are you calling it btw?

I've obviously pinched these figures from someone else's tweet but, if the polls are wrong by the same amount and in the same direction as in 2017, we're looking at Con maj ~10.

If the polls are wrong by the same amount and in the same direction as in 2015, we're looking at Con maj ~110.

Blimey

El_Capitano said:

rcs1000 said:

1. Will Jo Swinson hold her seat? It will be a big win for the LDs if the SNP's gain East Dumbartonshire.

Because then the Lib Dems will get a better leader, you mean?

What do you mean, she’s going to be Prime Minister Jo Swinson in a matter of hours!

TrèsDifficile said:

If they are, how would anyone know and so why would it affect how people bet?

Well you can get a sense from the traffic at the polling stations, I guess. If, say, it's a stampede in London but a trickle up in South Yorkshire, that would just possibly be saying something.

kinabalu said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.

No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?

How are you calling it btw?

Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabled

Sorry but that is not really acceptable

It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .