rcs1000 said:

KentRising said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1204888054273576963?s=20

So, basically, what that reminds us is of is the fact that the polls showing big Tory leads were way out.

Shit the bed.

Yeah but...

In 2017 the Con-Lab gap was less than expected.
In 2015, it was more than expected.
In 2010, it was less than expected.

Assuming that errors will be be in the same direction as last time is a sure fire way of losing all your money.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

nunu2 said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1204885669140746242

Nearly all the final opinion polls are published.

I'm hearing rumours of IDS is a goner in Chingford!

People haven't voted yet!

That's news to people who have sent in their postal votes.

So how do we know IDS has already lost then?

RobinWiggs said:

tyson said:

RobinWiggs said:

Black_Rook said:

Tonight's polls

Opinium Con 45/Lab 33/LD 12 (Con lead +12)
Qriously 43/30/12 (+13)
NCPolitics 43/33/12 (+10)
BMG 41/32/14 (+9)
Panelbase 43/34/11 (+9)
ComRes 41/36/12 (+5)
Kantar 44/32/13 (+12)
Deltapoll 45/35/10 (+10)

Mean Con lead: 10% exactly

Still waiting for Survation, YouGov and ICM, assuming they're all publishing tonight...? Ipsos MORI expected tomorrow morning I believe.

Why am I drawn to the 5% poll and worried, yet not calmed by the 5 x 10% and over polls?

2017 has a lot to answer for. I was fine until this evening.

What worries me is how the Tories have morphed into an English nationalist pressure group that doesn't give 2 flying fucks about the economic health of the country and fights an election on an entirely mendacious theme of "get Brexit done" that is obviously bollox. What became of your party? From what I see you are something much lower than pond life amoeba...

This has been an unpleasant campaign, and this type of post typifies it.

I dislike Corbyn vehemently and disagree with most Labour policy. But I still recognise that most Labour candidates are like most Conservative candidates - decent and honourable people motivated primarily by notions of public service, who want to do the best for the community.

I certainly wouldn’t call them lower than amoeba. I wish you didn’t either

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Some additional predictions from me.

The red wall will not crumble entirely. The Tories will gain 4 seats in the red wall.

The Tories will lose five seats in Scotland.

The Tories will lose four seats in London.

The Lib Dems will make surprise gains in the South - but will only be in the low 20s at best.

The next Government will be a Labour minority Government supported by the SNP in a C&S agreement. The Lib Dems will abstain.

Corbyn will resign.

I come from the future

theoldpolitics said:

Why is Chris Williamson not on the Betfair market for Derby North? He is surely only marginally more ridiculous a figure than Lord Buckethead, who is available to back for Uxbridge.

Richard_Nabavi said:

tyson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

tyson said:

Floater said:

tyson said:

Gallowgate said:

tyson said:

The Tories have inflicted three years of Brexit twattery on us...plunging the country into a nihilistic, populist nightmare.

Please, can someone tell me why they deserve a majority tomorrow.? And the answer cannot mention Corbyn. Thanks

Something something get Brexit done

You know...today our administrator just blurted out racist stuff as if it was normal...fucking Tories...you've opened up the box with your Brexit shitshow and you've made this country a worse place. Well fucking done

Yes Brexit made Labour a racist cess pit ......

Brexit has made the Labour Party a nasty place to be...yes, absolutely

Wrong way round. It was Labour choosing Corbyn, and thereby emasculating the Labour Remain campaign, which was one of the key reasons Leave won.

Even if that weren't the case, Corbyn brought Seumas Milne and the other extremely unpleasant elements in before the referendum. You can't blame anyone other than Labour for Labour descending into a vile cesspit.

I agree with pretty much everything you have written. In fact I could have written the same thing myself in a polemical moment. But...in this cesspit..there are still quite a few of us hanging on and hoping we can fight back....

Which is fair enough, as I said the other day. I have every respect for those who stay and try to improve things from the inside, but I also respect those who get to the point where they feel they can't in all conscience continue to do so. It's not an easy decision.

Byronic said:

kle4 said:

Byronic said:

kle4 said:

I apologise to Mr Byronic for what was an intemperate response.

No worries mate, we all get a bit upset.

I was only teasing you in the original comment.

Hence why it was uncalled for, but I can be a bit petulant at times.

Incidentally, when I was abroad recently, and looking for an objective viewpoint
on PB, on leader debates (which I could not watch), it was you who gave the most fair minded account.

So your studied if sometimes frustrating neutrality is very valuable. Keep it up!

rcs1000 said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

On the subject of massively ranges for predictions:

In mathematics there is a famous number called Graham’s Number after its discover. The number itself is one of the class of stupidly big numbers that are too big to ever calculate; indeed early on in the recipe for finding the number you are dealing with numbers which are literally too big to fit in the universe. This means that if you could write each digit in the smallest volume known to science there would not be enough room in the visible universe to write it down.

The best bit about this number is that is was not actually the answer to the problem Graham was trying to solve, only the upper bound. The lower bound was... 3.

Predictions which range from a hung parliament to a Tory majority in three figures are pretty mild by comparison.

Point of order: wasn't the lower bound six?

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

nunu2 said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1204885669140746242

Nearly all the final opinion polls are published.

I'm hearing rumours of IDS is a goner in Chingford!

People haven't voted yet!

That's news to people who have sent in their postal votes.

So how do we know IDS has already lost then?

Presumably it is people interpreting their canvass returns. Art rather than science, but if you know your patch it can give you a pretty good indication

Alternatively it is just spin in order to persuade any remaining LibDems to come over.

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

nunu2 said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1204885669140746242

Nearly all the final opinion polls are published.

I'm hearing rumours of IDS is a goner in Chingford!

There are no 'rumours' as most of the votes have not yet been cast. What a ridiculous post, the polls show it close but that is a different matter

In 1992 the Tories knew Chris Patten was losing Bath well before the votes were past.
This seems like a 1992 result- the Tories squeaking a 20 majority and then the country is plunged into 5 years of hellish governance....

Floater said:

RobinWiggs said:

tyson said:

RobinWiggs said:

Black_Rook said:

Tonight's polls

Opinium Con 45/Lab 33/LD 12 (Con lead +12)
Qriously 43/30/12 (+13)
NCPolitics 43/33/12 (+10)
BMG 41/32/14 (+9)
Panelbase 43/34/11 (+9)
ComRes 41/36/12 (+5)
Kantar 44/32/13 (+12)
Deltapoll 45/35/10 (+10)

Mean Con lead: 10% exactly

Still waiting for Survation, YouGov and ICM, assuming they're all publishing tonight...? Ipsos MORI expected tomorrow morning I believe.

Why am I drawn to the 5% poll and worried, yet not calmed by the 5 x 10% and over polls?

2017 has a lot to answer for. I was fine until this evening.

What worries me is how the Tories have morphed into an English nationalist pressure group that doesn't give 2 flying fucks about the economic health of the country and fights an election on an entirely mendacious theme of "get Brexit done" that is obviously bollox. What became of your party? From what I see you are something much lower than pond life amoeba...

This has been an unpleasant campaign, and this type of post typifies it.

I dislike Corbyn vehemently and disagree with most Labour policy. But I still recognise that most Labour candidates are like most Conservative candidates - decent and honourable people motivated primarily by notions of public service, who want to do the best for the community.

I certainly wouldn’t call them lower than amoeba. I wish you didn’t either

He does this now and again - then cries when its returned in kind

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Sun go for a reboot of the old Kinnock headline:

https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1204896005075935235

tyson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

tyson said:

Floater said:

tyson said:

Gallowgate said:

tyson said:

The Tories have inflicted three years of Brexit twattery on us...plunging the country into a nihilistic, populist nightmare.

Please, can someone tell me why they deserve a majority tomorrow.? And the answer cannot mention Corbyn. Thanks

Something something get Brexit done

You know...today our administrator just blurted out racist stuff as if it was normal...fucking Tories...you've opened up the box with your Brexit shitshow and you've made this country a worse place. Well fucking done

Yes Brexit made Labour a racist cess pit ......

Brexit has made the Labour Party a nasty place to be...yes, absolutely

Wrong way round. It was Labour choosing Corbyn, and thereby emasculating the Labour Remain campaign, which was one of the key reasons Leave won.

Even if that weren't the case, Corbyn brought Seumas Milne and the other extremely unpleasant elements in before the referendum. You can't blame anyone other than Labour for Labour descending into a vile cesspit.

I agree with pretty much everything you have written. In fact I could have written the same thing myself in a polemical moment. But...in this cesspit..there are still quite a few of us hanging on and hoping we can fight back....

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1204898042169765890

Should be the most up to date there is

Andy_JS said:

The SDP is contesting the following 20 seats:

Havant, Tottenham, York Central, Neath, Folkestone,
Leeds West, Wentworth, Cynon Valley, Cambridge, Epping Forest,
Warrington South, Jarrow, Keighley, Edinburgh SW,, Watford,
Thirsk & Malton, Tooting, Basildon, Leeds Central, Warwick & Leamington.

nunu2 said:

We're all waiting for Survation now....

nunu2 said:

We're all waiting for Survation now....

MarqueeMark said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Corbyn has been in 82 seats Christ

Which will be the one he holds?

Beibheirli_C said:

Floater said:

RobinWiggs said:

tyson said:

RobinWiggs said:

Black_Rook said:

Tonight's polls

Opinium Con 45/Lab 33/LD 12 (Con lead +12)
Qriously 43/30/12 (+13)
NCPolitics 43/33/12 (+10)
BMG 41/32/14 (+9)
Panelbase 43/34/11 (+9)
ComRes 41/36/12 (+5)
Kantar 44/32/13 (+12)
Deltapoll 45/35/10 (+10)

Mean Con lead: 10% exactly

Still waiting for Survation, YouGov and ICM, assuming they're all publishing tonight...? Ipsos MORI expected tomorrow morning I believe.

Why am I drawn to the 5% poll and worried, yet not calmed by the 5 x 10% and over polls?

2017 has a lot to answer for. I was fine until this evening.

What worries me is how the Tories have morphed into an English nationalist pressure group that doesn't give 2 flying fucks about the economic health of the country and fights an election on an entirely mendacious theme of "get Brexit done" that is obviously bollox. What became of your party? From what I see you are something much lower than pond life amoeba...

This has been an unpleasant campaign, and this type of post typifies it.

I dislike Corbyn vehemently and disagree with most Labour policy. But I still recognise that most Labour candidates are like most Conservative candidates - decent and honourable people motivated primarily by notions of public service, who want to do the best for the community.

I certainly wouldn’t call them lower than amoeba. I wish you didn’t either

He does this now and again - then cries when its returned in kind

He is correct about the Conservatives becoming an English nationalist party though. I used to feel that the Westminster govt represented me no matter which party was in charge. Labour no longer seems to give a d*mn about anything and the Tories have become an English party.

I am not English. I am British/Irish, but I feel dispossessed.

This thread has been embargoed

Richard_Nabavi said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

On the subject of massively ranges for predictions:

In mathematics there is a famous number called Graham’s Number after its discover. The number itself is one of the class of stupidly big numbers that are too big to ever calculate; indeed early on in the recipe for finding the number you are dealing with numbers which are literally too big to fit in the universe. This means that if you could write each digit in the smallest volume known to science there would not be enough room in the visible universe to write it down.

The best bit about this number is that is was not actually the answer to the problem Graham was trying to solve, only the upper bound. The lower bound was... 3.

Predictions which range from a hung parliament to a Tory majority in three figures are pretty mild by comparison.

I typed 'Graham's Number' into Microsoft's search engine and it came up with 020 8848 6700, the phone number of a plumber's merchant in Hayes.

I must remember to stick with Google next time.

Fysics_Teacher said:

rcs1000 said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

On the subject of massively ranges for predictions:

In mathematics there is a famous number called Graham’s Number after its discover. The number itself is one of the class of stupidly big numbers that are too big to ever calculate; indeed early on in the recipe for finding the number you are dealing with numbers which are literally too big to fit in the universe. This means that if you could write each digit in the smallest volume known to science there would not be enough room in the visible universe to write it down.

The best bit about this number is that is was not actually the answer to the problem Graham was trying to solve, only the upper bound. The lower bound was... 3.

Predictions which range from a hung parliament to a Tory majority in three figures are pretty mild by comparison.

Point of order: wasn't the lower bound six?

I thought it started at three and after some heroic work they got it up to six. I think it now stands at 11.

This is all from memory though. I’ve gone to bed having been signed off work for a couple of days, which is not what I was expecting when i went to the doctor.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Anyone know how to get the PB comments to show on an android phone? Can't see these now unless I'm sat at my PC - sub optimal for tomorrow night.

Used to work and then just disappeared a week or two ago?

CorrectHorseBattery said:

The only reason South Korea is so far ahead on broadband is that our expertise as a world leader was sold to them in the 80s when Thatcher decided it wasn't worth the investment

egg said:

funkhauser said:

tyson said:

The Tories have inflicted three years of Brexit twattery on us...plunging the country into a nihilistic, populist nightmare.

Please, can someone tell me why they deserve a majority tomorrow.? And the answer cannot mention Corbyn. Thanks

Because Socialism was tested to destruction in this country in the 60's & 70's.

It failed so badly that is was then junked by Labour & with the exception of North Korea & Cuba abandoned by the rest of the world.

countries like south Korea managed super broadband up to 97% our free market laiseez faire capitalism has got us up to 10% at a snails pace hence we are struggling to be competitive in global productivity tables. Japan 97% too, and Scandinavia and Ireland copying the South Korea example to improve competitiveness and productivity of across all their nation. You can call it commie broadband, you can be ignorant to how other countries, in Europe too, don’t leave it to liassez faire capitalism to deliver as U.K. has for so long, and call all that socialist and communist too. But you are not going to escape the fact that the British model isn’t working.