Exciting times for Labour supporters. Corbyn could be in Downing Street within 40 hours.
Only if Boris invites him for drinks.
Bo-who? There was a 2% Tory-to-Labour swing in Uxbridge between the first and second YouGov MRPs, and the second poll used data mostly collected before phonegate. Only 4.5% to go!
Exciting times for Labour supporters. Corbyn could be in Downing Street within 40 hours.
I think we're still quite far from that. A hung parliament with the tories at or above ~ 314 seats would be guaranteed not to result in Corbyn as PM, as neither the DUP nor the tories would support him. A bit below that and he'd first need to get support from the libdems.
While I believe there's a small chance of a hung parliament at the moment, a hung parliament with the tories below 314 seems extremely unlikely to me.
The DUP spokesman on C4 news didn't rule out working with Jezza, provided he ditched the Irish Sea border.
Well exactly. Who the hell cares about 'stealing' such a thing? I assumed Dr Allin-Khan was being faux outraged in her own response to it, but others seem very serious that it matters that it was not a unique idea.
Well he’s hardly going to say “we’re f**cked” is he?
Yes but a poll has said the same, a slow Labour comeback in Scotland.
Is their card? Surprise seat gains in Scotland?
2 Labour seats in Scotland. Edinburgh South and Kirkcaldy because the SNP screwed up in the latter. The rest are toast.
One of the unexpected upsides of this election has been the first signs of the death of Scottish independence, as a desire and a cause.
Not sure why. Because Brexit is such a clusterfuck? But even Sturgeon is backing away from the issue, and is now talking about devomax
I'm mulling an article on this, which references Macbeth. Not the bits of Macbeth you'd immediately think of.
But it can wait until we know the result of the GE.
"The same reasons that gave rise to the SNP's dominance now drag it down."
SNP has simply a small core and loose layers of disgruntled ex-Conservatives, ex-Labour and ex-LD voters, if those voters get happy again with their former parties the SNP disappears like a mirage.
The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls.
It's not been brilliant, but it's been pretty good.
MUCH better than 2017. The problem is they got tired in the last few days and when Boyfloorgate happened they panicked.
The one single stand out ad of the entire campaign was theirs. Boris' Love Actually spoof.
They stole Love Actually from a Labour MP. It wasn’t their idea.
Boris one was subtler - the Labour one had the voter replace a 'Vote Conservative' poster with a 'Vote Labour' one - in Boris video the viewer was left to make up their own mind.
Most men would struggle not to vote for Rosena Allin if she turned up at their door.
If you look at this and compare to the fieldwork dates with Comres it’s possible the events of Monday shifted things towards Lab a touch but things then evened our. Hopefully that explains the late MRP decline in Tory seats.
I think this may well be a curious election, in which the Conservatives, Labour, the LibDems, the SNP, Plaid Cymru, the Brexit Party, UKIP, the DUP, and the Greens are all going to be disappointed.
By the way, two questions (I've been a long time lurker and contributed two or three very drunken posts a year or two ago under a username I cannot remember):
1) Why do politicians refer to The NHS as Our NHS?
I'm sorry, sod off. It is The NHS and you can weaponise it all you like but it ain't "ours", it's The.
Mr Corbyn, we do not have until Thursday to save it you silly arse. After Thurday, the NHS will continue to mend broken bones, take out tonsils (do they still recommend that - I may be showing my age!), and keep people alive from far, far more serious and complex problems. I know this, my daughter works in the NHS. If you politicians buggered off, she would turn up for work tomorrow whilst you have a recess, weekend, early Friday or whatever!
Mr Johnson, you can suggest throwing all the money you like at it but until politicians of all stripes come together and agree the fundamental changes that are needed it will always be a political football rather than an improved service. Stories such as "Leeds Jack" should only ever be an opportunity to apologise for not being able to do enough. We know there is vast amount of money being poured into the NHS. But is that money being used effectively - Jacks Mum, and many others would say bloody hell, No! As long as it remains a party political issue, we will see more "Jack" incidents and you, and Mr Corbyn will rightly be given uncomfortable moments.
Parliament: For goodness sake, get the clinicians involved in the discussions. Include people that are currently managing hospitals but above all, listen to the clinical staff. What stops them working, where is money being wasted, what could we do in the next 30 days that would improve their patients outcomes? And then ask that question once those things had been put in place for the next 30 days. FFS, it is not rocket science!
Oh, and by the way, Mr Public, Allow our politicians to set up a cross party platform to agree (Jesus H, is that possible?) a way forward. Back off from our own political prejudices and do what we say we want our politicians to do - that is, of course, if the fuckers above can agree to those proposals. Then, and only then, will it be "Our NHS"
So far so good. My biggest upside is Labour 35-40% so if they can get 35.1% and the Tories 45% I’ll be happy on all fronts. Though a majority of 20 and losing my money would be fantastic too!
By the way, two questions (I've been a long time lurker and contributed two or three very drunken posts a year or two ago under a username I cannot remember):
1) Why do politicians refer to The NHS as Our NHS?
I'm sorry, sod off. It is The NHS and you can weaponise it all you like but it ain't "ours", it's The.
Mr Corbyn, we do not have until Thursday to save it you silly arse. After Thurday, the NHS will continue to mend broken bones, take out tonsils (do they still recommend that - I may be showing my age!), and keep people alive from far, far more serious and complex problems. I know this, my daughter works in the NHS. If you politicians buggered off, she would turn up for work tomorrow whilst you have a recess, weekend, early Friday or whatever!
Mr Johnson, you can suggest throwing all the money you like at it but until politicians of all stripes come together and agree the fundamental changes that are needed it will always be a political football rather than an improved service. Stories such as "Leeds Jack" should only ever be an opportunity to apologise for not being able to do enough. We know there is vast amount of money being poured into the NHS. But is that money being used effectively - Jacks Mum, and many others would say bloody hell, No! As long as it remains a party political issue, we will see more "Jack" incidents and you, and Mr Corbyn will rightly be given uncomfortable moments.
Parliament: For goodness sake, get the clinicians involved in the discussions. Include people that are currently managing hospitals but above all, listen to the clinical staff. What stops them working, where is money being wasted, what could we do in the next 30 days that would improve their patients outcomes? And then ask that question once those things had been put in place for the next 30 days. FFS, it is not rocket science!
Oh, and by the way, Mr Public, Allow our politicians to set up a cross party platform to agree (Jesus H, is that possible?) a way forward. Back off from our own political prejudices and do what we say we want our politicians to do - that is, of course, if the fuckers above can agree to those proposals. Then, and only then, will it be "Our NHS"
If these are your drunken posted offerings you're either very inspired when drunk or I demand to see some sober posts to see what you can come up with!
We the public are definitely part of the problem when it comes to the NHS. Venerated to the degree it cannot even be properly touched except in a way which results in partisan politics.
Well he’s hardly going to say “we’re f**cked” is he?
Yes but a poll has said the same, a slow Labour comeback in Scotland.
Is their card? Surprise seat gains in Scotland?
2 Labour seats in Scotland. Edinburgh South and Kirkcaldy because the SNP screwed up in the latter. The rest are toast.
One of the unexpected upsides of this election has been the first signs of the death of Scottish independence, as a desire and a cause.
Not sure why. Because Brexit is such a clusterfuck? But even Sturgeon is backing away from the issue, and is now talking about devomax
I'm mulling an article on this, which references Macbeth. Not the bits of Macbeth you'd immediately think of.
But it can wait until we know the result of the GE.
The Nats are going to be relatively frustrated tomorrow. Is my hunch
Not mine. They should take more than half of the Scottish Conservative seats IMO and all but a couple of Labour ones.
Key points:
The SCON surge was due more to SNP to Con switchers than previous Lab or LD voters choosing tactically from a Unionist perspective. We can presume those ex-SNP voters aren't especially unionist, nor necessarily they will stick with the SCONs this time.
Any collapse in the Labour vote in Scotland harms the Conservatives because they will go to the SNP and vote them out.
You get the feeling a relatively small number of votes could make the difference between a hung parliament and a large Tory majority. Lots of close results, more marginals than usual.
In any normal election these would be AMAZING polls for the Tories, and point to a huge landslide
It’s also pleasing that the smallest poll lead is the one commissioned by the Telegraph. I really think 41 is on the low side though think Lab 36 is possible.
You get the feeling a relatively small number of votes could make the difference between a hung parliament and a large Tory majority. Lots of close results, more marginals than usual.
If only there was a real time update of all of this....
By the way, two questions (I've been a long time lurker and contributed two or three very drunken posts a year or two ago under a username I cannot remember):
1) Why do politicians refer to The NHS as Our NHS?
I'm sorry, sod off. It is The NHS and you can weaponise it all you like but it ain't "ours", it's The.
Mr Corbyn, we do not have until Thursday to save it you silly arse. After Thurday, the NHS will continue to mend broken bones, take out tonsils (do they still recommend that - I may be showing my age!), and keep people alive from far, far more serious and complex problems. I know this, my daughter works in the NHS. If you politicians buggered off, she would turn up for work tomorrow whilst you have a recess, weekend, early Friday or whatever!
Mr Johnson, you can suggest throwing all the money you like at it but until politicians of all stripes come together and agree the fundamental changes that are needed it will always be a political football rather than an improved service. Stories such as "Leeds Jack" should only ever be an opportunity to apologise for not being able to do enough. We know there is vast amount of money being poured into the NHS. But is that money being used effectively - Jacks Mum, and many others would say bloody hell, No! As long as it remains a party political issue, we will see more "Jack" incidents and you, and Mr Corbyn will rightly be given uncomfortable moments.
Parliament: For goodness sake, get the clinicians involved in the discussions. Include people that are currently managing hospitals but above all, listen to the clinical staff. What stops them working, where is money being wasted, what could we do in the next 30 days that would improve their patients outcomes? And then ask that question once those things had been put in place for the next 30 days. FFS, it is not rocket science!
Oh, and by the way, Mr Public, Allow our politicians to set up a cross party platform to agree (Jesus H, is that possible?) a way forward. Back off from our own political prejudices and do what we say we want our politicians to do - that is, of course, if the fuckers above can agree to those proposals. Then, and only then, will it be "Our NHS"
Has to be one of the worst political campaigns ever. They have on one side a bungling bonking buffoon and the other an anti-semite enabling terrorist sympathizer and they still can't get more than the odd beardy sandal wearer to say I agree with Jo....
I think this may well be a curious election, in which the Conservatives, Labour, the LibDems, the SNP, Plaid Cymru, the Brexit Party, UKIP, the DUP, and the Greens are all going to be disappointed.
I don't think so.
If the Conservatives are dissapointed then Labour would be happy. If Labour is happy so will the SNP because they might share power with them in exchange for yer another scottish referendum. The DUP will also be happy since the New Deal wont pass parliament.
In any normal election these would be AMAZING polls for the Tories, and point to a huge landslide
It could be a very very good night for them, and more of a shock to the opposition than it should be, since it is within the realms of possibility on these polls. While I definitely tend to gut feel think the lower predictions make more sense, we should not be surprised if Boris has a mahoosive majority.
I think we might be running the risk here of seeing this election through the prism of what happened last time. Mortimer's comments today about his canvassing experiences suggest the Tory vote is likely to be a lot stronger than maybe we thought. One other thought might be on turnout - despite it being December, could we get a surprise turnout of traditional non-voters who help push the Tories over the line? If that is the case, we are in landslide territory.
Has to be one of the worst political campaigns ever. They have on one side a bungling bonking buffoon and the other an anti-semite enabling terrorist sympathizer and they still can't get more than the odd beardy sandal wearer to say I agree with Jo....
Some of you may be aware of the music subgenre sometimes known as "trailer music" or "production music": music written for commercial use, esp. trailers. The Wonder Woman 1984 trailer came out this week with a trailer cover of "Blue Monday" which I particularly liked. The trailer music for it is on YouTube and you can find it here and here.
Comments
24 hours time - this might be accurate or not.
All will be fine.
Does that tell us the whole story ? I'm still not sure. Certainly 15-35, nearer my original estimate, looks a bit more possible.
SNP has simply a small core and loose layers of disgruntled ex-Conservatives, ex-Labour and ex-LD voters, if those voters get happy again with their former parties the SNP disappears like a mirage.
Boris could have a 100+ majority
LOLLLLLLLZZZZZZ
Interesting, all the Boris blunder stuff, doesn't seem to have hit the Tories. The difference is Lab / LD switching.
Terrible for the LDs though.
Jezza went on a hill walk today?
lolololololol
He has his pledges on wall behind him - like advertising boards for post match football interviews.
1) Why do politicians refer to The NHS as Our NHS?
I'm sorry, sod off. It is The NHS and you can weaponise it all you like but it ain't "ours", it's The.
Mr Corbyn, we do not have until Thursday to save it you silly arse. After Thurday, the NHS will continue to mend broken bones, take out tonsils (do they still recommend that - I may be showing my age!), and keep people alive from far, far more serious and complex problems. I know this, my daughter works in the NHS. If you politicians buggered off, she would turn up for work tomorrow whilst you have a recess, weekend, early Friday or whatever!
Mr Johnson, you can suggest throwing all the money you like at it but until politicians of all stripes come together and agree the fundamental changes that are needed it will always be a political football rather than an improved service. Stories such as "Leeds Jack" should only ever be an opportunity to apologise for not being able to do enough. We know there is vast amount of money being poured into the NHS. But is that money being used effectively - Jacks Mum, and many others would say bloody hell, No! As long as it remains a party political issue, we will see more "Jack" incidents and you, and Mr Corbyn will rightly be given uncomfortable moments.
Parliament: For goodness sake, get the clinicians involved in the discussions. Include people that are currently managing hospitals but above all, listen to the clinical staff. What stops them working, where is money being wasted, what could we do in the next 30 days that would improve their patients outcomes? And then ask that question once those things had been put in place for the next 30 days. FFS, it is not rocket science!
Oh, and by the way, Mr Public, Allow our politicians to set up a cross party platform to agree (Jesus H, is that possible?) a way forward. Back off from our own political prejudices and do what we say we want our politicians to do - that is, of course, if the fuckers above can agree to those proposals. Then, and only then, will it be "Our NHS"
I suspect it won’t though...
We the public are definitely part of the problem when it comes to the NHS. Venerated to the degree it cannot even be properly touched except in a way which results in partisan politics.
Key points:
*innocent face*
Thanks for this...you need to post more....
Simple answer, shy con remain lying to them
One of the best examples of why we should not have PR..
Opinium Con 45/Lab 33/LD 12 (Con lead +12)
Qriously 43/30/12 (+13)
NCPolitics 43/33/12 (+10)
BMG 41/32/14 (+9)
Panelbase 43/34/11 (+9)
ComRes 41/36/12 (+5)
Kantar 44/32/13 (+12)
Deltapoll 45/35/10 (+10)
Mean Con lead: 10% exactly
Still waiting for Survation, YouGov and ICM, assuming they're all publishing tonight...? Ipsos MORI expected tomorrow morning I believe.
Nearly all the final opinion polls are published.
If the Conservatives are dissapointed then Labour would be happy.
If Labour is happy so will the SNP because they might share power with them in exchange for yer another scottish referendum.
The DUP will also be happy since the New Deal wont pass parliament.
Goodnight all
Scotland:
Con: 26
Lab: 24
SNP: 39
Marginals (EW only)
Lab Marginals:
Con: 45
Lab: 36
Con Marginals:
Con: 49
Lab: 40
http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/polls/general-election-2019-final
If that's tight.....TIMBER!!!!!
I didn't think polls were allowed to be released on election day