I'm hearing rumours of IDS is a goner in Chingford!
People haven't voted yet!
That's news to people who have sent in their postal votes.
So how do we know IDS has already lost then?
Presumably it is people interpreting their canvass returns. Art rather than science, but if you know your patch it can give you a pretty good indication
Alternatively it is just spin in order to persuade any remaining LibDems to come over.
Still waiting for Survation, YouGov and ICM, assuming they're all publishing tonight...? Ipsos MORI expected tomorrow morning I believe.
Why am I drawn to the 5% poll and worried, yet not calmed by the 5 x 10% and over polls?
2017 has a lot to answer for. I was fine until this evening.
What worries me is how the Tories have morphed into an English nationalist pressure group that doesn't give 2 flying fucks about the economic health of the country and fights an election on an entirely mendacious theme of "get Brexit done" that is obviously bollox. What became of your party? From what I see you are something much lower than pond life amoeba...
This has been an unpleasant campaign, and this type of post typifies it.
I dislike Corbyn vehemently and disagree with most Labour policy. But I still recognise that most Labour candidates are like most Conservative candidates - decent and honourable people motivated primarily by notions of public service, who want to do the best for the community.
I certainly wouldn’t call them lower than amoeba. I wish you didn’t either
He does this now and again - then cries when its returned in kind
The polling average hasn't changed for about 2 weeks.
It's still 43/33 after tonight's polls.
This is a very valid point, just looking at the polls from when the election was called. Leads of 8,10,12,7,13,6,11 etc. Essentially exactly the same as now. So either the pollsters have missed something or we’ll get exactly the same result as we would have done without 6 weeks of bullshit. The only major difference is BXP and Lib Dems being squeezed which probably has more upsides for Con than Lab.
Why is Chris Williamson not on the Betfair market for Derby North? He is surely only marginally more ridiculous a figure than Lord Buckethead, who is available to back for Uxbridge.
The Tories have inflicted three years of Brexit twattery on us...plunging the country into a nihilistic, populist nightmare.
Please, can someone tell me why they deserve a majority tomorrow.? And the answer cannot mention Corbyn. Thanks
Something something get Brexit done
You know...today our administrator just blurted out racist stuff as if it was normal...fucking Tories...you've opened up the box with your Brexit shitshow and you've made this country a worse place. Well fucking done
Yes Brexit made Labour a racist cess pit ......
Brexit has made the Labour Party a nasty place to be...yes, absolutely
Wrong way round. It was Labour choosing Corbyn, and thereby emasculating the Labour Remain campaign, which was one of the key reasons Leave won.
Even if that weren't the case, Corbyn brought Seumas Milne and the other extremely unpleasant elements in before the referendum. You can't blame anyone other than Labour for Labour descending into a vile cesspit.
I agree with pretty much everything you have written. In fact I could have written the same thing myself in a polemical moment. But...in this cesspit..there are still quite a few of us hanging on and hoping we can fight back....
Which is fair enough, as I said the other day. I have every respect for those who stay and try to improve things from the inside, but I also respect those who get to the point where they feel they can't in all conscience continue to do so. It's not an easy decision.
I did reply to your post the other day...but it got convoluted and all that...and I binned it..
As one comrade to another..and we have jostled with each other these past years..and are both struggling with our political identities. You are a traditional Tory, and I am traditional Labour. But things have changed...and it's tough
I apologise to Mr Byronic for what was an intemperate response.
No worries mate, we all get a bit upset.
I was only teasing you in the original comment.
Hence why it was uncalled for, but I can be a bit petulant at times.
Incidentally, when I was abroad recently, and looking for an objective viewpoint on PB, on leader debates (which I could not watch), it was you who gave the most fair minded account.
So your studied if sometimes frustrating neutrality is very valuable. Keep it up!
Very kind. Though I would say it is not neutrality, just allegy to definitive statements Comes from writing too many reports that have allow for many outcomes.
I'm hearing rumours of IDS is a goner in Chingford!
People haven't voted yet!
That's news to people who have sent in their postal votes.
So how do we know IDS has already lost then?
So far behind on postal votes there’s no coming back. Just saying like, NuNu was the vacuum cleaner in tellietubbyland before becoming PB rumour miller
On the subject of massively ranges for predictions:
In mathematics there is a famous number called Graham’s Number after its discover. The number itself is one of the class of stupidly big numbers that are too big to ever calculate; indeed early on in the recipe for finding the number you are dealing with numbers which are literally too big to fit in the universe. This means that if you could write each digit in the smallest volume known to science there would not be enough room in the visible universe to write it down.
The best bit about this number is that is was not actually the answer to the problem Graham was trying to solve, only the upper bound. The lower bound was... 3.
Predictions which range from a hung parliament to a Tory majority in three figures are pretty mild by comparison.
Point of order: wasn't the lower bound six?
I thought it started at three and after some heroic work they got it up to six. I think it now stands at 11.
This is all from memory though. I’ve gone to bed having been signed off work for a couple of days, which is not what I was expecting when i went to the doctor.
I'm hearing rumours of IDS is a goner in Chingford!
People haven't voted yet!
That's news to people who have sent in their postal votes.
So how do we know IDS has already lost then?
Presumably it is people interpreting their canvass returns. Art rather than science, but if you know your patch it can give you a pretty good indication
Alternatively it is just spin in order to persuade any remaining LibDems to come over.
It is just spin, I have canvassed Chingford and Woodford Green every weekend for the last 2 months and have yet to meet a 2017 Tory voter confirmed to be switching to Labour.
Labour are squeezing the LD vote a bit but tomorrow will all be about GOTV
I'm hearing rumours of IDS is a goner in Chingford!
There are no 'rumours' as most of the votes have not yet been cast. What a ridiculous post, the polls show it close but that is a different matter
In 1992 the Tories knew Chris Patten was losing Bath well before the votes were past. This seems like a 1992 result- the Tories squeaking a 20 majority and then the country is plunged into 5 years of hellish governance....
The nation clearly needs to be run by brutish anti semitic marxists..... oh wait
I'm hearing rumours of IDS is a goner in Chingford!
People haven't voted yet!
That's news to people who have sent in their postal votes.
So how do we know IDS has already lost then?
Presumably it is people interpreting their canvass returns. Art rather than science, but if you know your patch it can give you a pretty good indication
Alternatively it is just spin in order to persuade any remaining LibDems to come over.
It is just spin, I have canvassed Chingford and Woodford Green every weekend for the last 2 months and have yet to meet a 2017 Tory voter confirmed to be switching to Labour.
Labour are squeezing the LD vote a bit but tomorrow will all be about GOTV
Still waiting for Survation, YouGov and ICM, assuming they're all publishing tonight...? Ipsos MORI expected tomorrow morning I believe.
Why am I drawn to the 5% poll and worried, yet not calmed by the 5 x 10% and over polls?
2017 has a lot to answer for. I was fine until this evening.
What worries me is how the Tories have morphed into an English nationalist pressure group that doesn't give 2 flying fucks about the economic health of the country and fights an election on an entirely mendacious theme of "get Brexit done" that is obviously bollox. What became of your party? From what I see you are something much lower than pond life amoeba...
This has been an unpleasant campaign, and this type of post typifies it.
I dislike Corbyn vehemently and disagree with most Labour policy. But I still recognise that most Labour candidates are like most Conservative candidates - decent and honourable people motivated primarily by notions of public service, who want to do the best for the community.
I certainly wouldn’t call them lower than amoeba. I wish you didn’t either
He does this now and again - then cries when its returned in kind
He is correct about the Conservatives becoming an English nationalist party though. I used to feel that the Westminster govt represented me no matter which party was in charge. Labour no longer seems to give a d*mn about anything and the Tories have become an English party.
I am not English. I am British/Irish, but I feel dispossessed.
Why is Chris Williamson not on the Betfair market for Derby North? He is surely only marginally more ridiculous a figure than Lord Buckethead, who is available to back for Uxbridge.
What's ridiculous about Lord Buckethead? Eminently sensible policy platform. Chris Williamson, on the other hand …
I have bet on Labour in that seat. I suspect Williamson had a negative personal vote.
Don't know what's going to happen tbh. It's close though. There's far too much visceral hatred of Johnson for landslides. My head says that the Cons will just do it, but my heart? Well in the famous words of Martin Brunson at this time in 1992, 'I just wonder ...' My heart says hung parliament with Labour outperforming every poll.
Incidentally, they have far more members and a better organised ground game these days. It may count for something.
Bad front page at all sorts of levels. Mixed messaging. If you want to save Brexit you are not moving on. There's the weird space aliens thing. Poor layout design. And does anyone really believe Johnson is ushering a bright future?
Why is Chris Williamson not on the Betfair market for Derby North? He is surely only marginally more ridiculous a figure than Lord Buckethead, who is available to back for Uxbridge.
The Tories have inflicted three years of Brexit twattery on us...plunging the country into a nihilistic, populist nightmare.
Please, can someone tell me why they deserve a majority tomorrow.? And the answer cannot mention Corbyn. Thanks
Something something get Brexit done
You know...today our administrator just blurted out racist stuff as if it was normal...fucking Tories...you've opened up the box with your Brexit shitshow and you've made this country a worse place. Well fucking done
Yes Brexit made Labour a racist cess pit ......
Brexit has made the Labour Party a nasty place to be...yes, absolutely
Wrong way round. It was Labour choosing Corbyn, and thereby emasculating the Labour Remain campaign, which was one of the key reasons Leave won.
Even if that weren't the case, Corbyn brought Seumas Milne and the other extremely unpleasant elements in before the referendum. You can't blame anyone other than Labour for Labour descending into a vile cesspit.
I agree with pretty much everything you have written. In fact I could have written the same thing myself in a polemical moment. But...in this cesspit..there are still quite a few of us hanging on and hoping we can fight back....
I wish you well - but I think Labour are lost to reason now
I'm hearing rumours of IDS is a goner in Chingford!
There are no 'rumours' as most of the votes have not yet been cast. What a ridiculous post, the polls show it close but that is a different matter
In 1992 the Tories knew Chris Patten was losing Bath well before the votes were past.
Let's remember Bob Marshall-Andrews conceding defeat on election night in 2005 in Medway ....
... and then finding he'd scraped home (against Mark Reckess) by 213 votes.
There is no polling that can predict a constituency to +/- 200 votes.
I am sure it is close in Chingford, but unless IDS has lost by a lot (unlikely IMO), then no-one can be certain about the result until 3.00 am tomorrow night.
Bad front page at all sorts of levels. Mixed messaging. If you want to save Brexit you are not moving on. There's the weird space aliens thing. Poor layout design. And does anyone really believe Johnson is ushering a bright future?
Many of those Labour Leavers will see this tomorrow and think "do I really want to be on the same side as the Sun?"
Still waiting for Survation, YouGov and ICM, assuming they're all publishing tonight...? Ipsos MORI expected tomorrow morning I believe.
Why am I drawn to the 5% poll and worried, yet not calmed by the 5 x 10% and over polls?
2017 has a lot to answer for. I was fine until this evening.
What worries me is how the Tories have morphed into an English nationalist pressure group that doesn't give 2 flying fucks about the economic health of the country and fights an election on an entirely mendacious theme of "get Brexit done" that is obviously bollox. What became of your party? From what I see you are something much lower than pond life amoeba...
This has been an unpleasant campaign, and this type of post typifies it.
I dislike Corbyn vehemently and disagree with most Labour policy. But I still recognise that most Labour candidates are like most Conservative candidates - decent and honourable people motivated primarily by notions of public service, who want to do the best for the community.
I certainly wouldn’t call them lower than amoeba. I wish you didn’t either
Amoeba- I didn't quite realise I held them in such disdain....they haven't really done anything to me. But the Tories have impacted my life with all this Brexit nonsense which has cost me a lot of money, and caused me emotional pain. I've been burgled and physically assaulted in my life....but this cannot compare to the personal harm caused to me by Brexit....
Bad front page at all sorts of levels. Mixed messaging. If you want to save Brexit you are not moving on. There's the weird space aliens thing. Poor layout design. And does anyone really believe Johnson is ushering a bright future?
Many of those Labour Leavers will see this tomorrow and think "do I really want to be on the same side as the Sun?"
I just spent half an hour replying to @CycleFree . Not sure where her comment has gone and I'm buggered where mine is. They were so intelligent and insightful (well Ms Free's were)!
Why is Chris Williamson not on the Betfair market for Derby North? He is surely only marginally more ridiculous a figure than Lord Buckethead, who is available to back for Uxbridge.
I'm a Count Binface man myself.
Splitter!
General Waste keeps appearing on rubbish bins all over the place!
The Tories have inflicted three years of Brexit twattery on us...plunging the country into a nihilistic, populist nightmare.
Please, can someone tell me why they deserve a majority tomorrow.? And the answer cannot mention Corbyn. Thanks
Because Socialism was tested to destruction in this country in the 60's & 70's.
It failed so badly that is was then junked by Labour & with the exception of North Korea & Cuba abandoned by the rest of the world.
countries like south Korea managed super broadband up to 97% our free market laiseez faire capitalism has got us up to 10% at a snails pace hence we are struggling to be competitive in global productivity tables. Japan 97% too, and Scandinavia and Ireland copying the South Korea example to improve competitiveness and productivity of across all their nation. You can call it commie broadband, you can be ignorant to how other countries, in Europe too, don’t leave it to liassez faire capitalism to deliver as U.K. has for so long, and call all that socialist and communist too. But you are not going to escape the fact that the British model isn’t working.
Bad front page at all sorts of levels. Mixed messaging. If you want to save Brexit you are not moving on. There's the weird space aliens thing. Poor layout design. And does anyone really believe Johnson is ushering a bright future?
Many of those Labour Leavers will see this tomorrow and think "do I really want to be on the same side as the Sun?"
I wonder what Lancaster did to deserve a bolt of lightning from The Sun?
The only reason South Korea is so far ahead on broadband is that our expertise as a world leader was sold to them in the 80s when Thatcher decided it wasn't worth the investment
Still waiting for Survation, YouGov and ICM, assuming they're all publishing tonight...? Ipsos MORI expected tomorrow morning I believe.
Why am I drawn to the 5% poll and worried, yet not calmed by the 5 x 10% and over polls?
2017 has a lot to answer for. I was fine until this evening.
What worries me is how the Tories have morphed into an English nationalist pressure group that doesn't give 2 flying fucks about the economic health of the country and fights an election on an entirely mendacious theme of "get Brexit done" that is obviously bollox. What became of your party? From what I see you are something much lower than pond life amoeba...
This has been an unpleasant campaign, and this type of post typifies it.
I dislike Corbyn vehemently and disagree with most Labour policy. But I still recognise that most Labour candidates are like most Conservative candidates - decent and honourable people motivated primarily by notions of public service, who want to do the best for the community.
I certainly wouldn’t call them lower than amoeba. I wish you didn’t either
He does this now and again - then cries when its returned in kind
He is correct about the Conservatives becoming an English nationalist party though. I used to feel that the Westminster govt represented me no matter which party was in charge. Labour no longer seems to give a d*mn about anything and the Tories have become an English party.
I am not English. I am British/Irish, but I feel dispossessed.
A direct result of devolution...with all the talk of a hung parliaments and Lab/SNP tie up why has nobody raised the issue of Scottish votes for English laws being the only way that can be implemented.
The only reason South Korea is so far ahead on broadband is that our expertise as a world leader was sold to them in the 80s when Thatcher decided it wasn't worth the investment
Ahh. Fatcha.
Wonder how long it would take to blame her for something.
On the subject of massively ranges for predictions:
In mathematics there is a famous number called Graham’s Number after its discover. The number itself is one of the class of stupidly big numbers that are too big to ever calculate; indeed early on in the recipe for finding the number you are dealing with numbers which are literally too big to fit in the universe. This means that if you could write each digit in the smallest volume known to science there would not be enough room in the visible universe to write it down.
The best bit about this number is that is was not actually the answer to the problem Graham was trying to solve, only the upper bound. The lower bound was... 3.
Predictions which range from a hung parliament to a Tory majority in three figures are pretty mild by comparison.
I typed 'Graham's Number' into Microsoft's search engine and it came up with 020 8848 6700, the phone number of a plumber's merchant in Hayes.
I must remember to stick with Google next time.
I got something similar but with some strange pictures
He might have been a plumber because he said he liked laying pipe.......
On the subject of massively ranges for predictions:
In mathematics there is a famous number called Graham’s Number after its discover. The number itself is one of the class of stupidly big numbers that are too big to ever calculate; indeed early on in the recipe for finding the number you are dealing with numbers which are literally too big to fit in the universe. This means that if you could write each digit in the smallest volume known to science there would not be enough room in the visible universe to write it down.
The best bit about this number is that is was not actually the answer to the problem Graham was trying to solve, only the upper bound. The lower bound was... 3.
Predictions which range from a hung parliament to a Tory majority in three figures are pretty mild by comparison.
Point of order: wasn't the lower bound six?
I thought it started at three and after some heroic work they got it up to six. I think it now stands at 11.
This is all from memory though. I’ve gone to bed having been signed off work for a couple of days, which is not what I was expecting when i went to the doctor.
Sorry to hear that. Hope you’re fit again soon.
I’ve never heard of Graham’s number, but like it. It sounds like Robin’s number... which is Graham’s number multiplied by Pi.
The only reason South Korea is so far ahead on broadband is that our expertise as a world leader was sold to them in the 80s when Thatcher decided it wasn't worth the investment
Ahh. Fatcha.
Wonder how long it would take to blame her for something.
In this case, it's genuinely true that she chose to cancel BT's planned FTTP rollout in the 80s.
I'm hearing rumours of IDS is a goner in Chingford!
People haven't voted yet!
That's news to people who have sent in their postal votes.
So how do we know IDS has already lost then?
Presumably it is people interpreting their canvass returns. Art rather than science, but if you know your patch it can give you a pretty good indication
Alternatively it is just spin in order to persuade any remaining LibDems to come over.
It is just spin, I have canvassed Chingford and Woodford Green every weekend for the last 2 months and have yet to meet a 2017 Tory voter confirmed to be switching to Labour.
Labour are squeezing the LD vote a bit but tomorrow will all be about GOTV
I have gone through an entire six-week campaign of door-knocking without finding one Con to Labour switcher.
BTW our candidate has knocked on 27,000 doors. He started 5 months ago when selected. He had to break it to his girlfriend that the deposit they'd saved for their first house....? He was going to need it. Now THAT is skin in the game....
The only reason South Korea is so far ahead on broadband is that our expertise as a world leader was sold to them in the 80s when Thatcher decided it wasn't worth the investment
I don't think much has changed through the campaign. Foxy's Final prediction.
Con 360 Lab 201 SNP 43 LD 21 PC 4 Green 1 Ind 1 Speaker 1 NI 18
I think that's pretty good. I think the Con number is more likely to be 370-380, the Lab number will be sub 200 (perhaps nearer 180) while the LDs will probably be 18 or 19, rather than 21.
The Tories have inflicted three years of Brexit twattery on us...plunging the country into a nihilistic, populist nightmare.
Please, can someone tell me why they deserve a majority tomorrow.? And the answer cannot mention Corbyn. Thanks
Because Socialism was tested to destruction in this country in the 60's & 70's.
It failed so badly that is was then junked by Labour & with the exception of North Korea & Cuba abandoned by the rest of the world.
countries like south Korea managed super broadband up to 97% our free market laiseez faire capitalism has got us up to 10% at a snails pace hence we are struggling to be competitive in global productivity tables. Japan 97% too, and Scandinavia and Ireland copying the South Korea example to improve competitiveness and productivity of across all their nation. You can call it commie broadband, you can be ignorant to how other countries, in Europe too, don’t leave it to liassez faire capitalism to deliver as U.K. has for so long, and call all that socialist and communist too. But you are not going to escape the fact that the British model isn’t working.
Wow,in defence of Socialism all you can come up with is a single example of state intervention in a non Socialist country.
Comments
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1204896005075935235
Alternatively it is just spin in order to persuade any remaining LibDems to come over.
As one comrade to another..and we have jostled with each other these past years..and are both struggling with our political identities. You are a traditional Tory, and I am traditional Labour. But things have changed...and it's tough
Opinium Con 45/Lab 33/LD 12 (Con lead +12)
Qriously 43/30/12 (+13)
NCPolitics 43/33/12 (+10)
BMG 41/32/14 (+9)
Panelbase 43/34/11 (+9)
ComRes 41/36/12 (+5)
Kantar 44/32/13 (+12)
Deltapoll 45/35/10 (+10)
ICM (9 Dec) 42/36/12 (+6)
YouGov MRP (10 Dec) 43/34/12 (+9)
FocalData MRP (10 Dec) 42/34/14 (+8)
Mean Con lead: 9.4%
We continue to await Survation. Ipsos MORI doesn't come until the morning. For the record, their most recent results to date are as follows:
Survation (7 Dec) 45/31/11 (+14)
Ipsos MORI (4 Dec) 44/32/13 (+12)
Havant, Tottenham, York Central, Neath, Folkestone,
Leeds West, Wentworth, Cynon Valley, Cambridge, Epping Forest,
Warrington South, Jarrow, Keighley, Edinburgh SW,, Watford,
Thirsk & Malton, Tooting, Basildon, Leeds Central, Warwick & Leamington.
Just saying like, NuNu was the vacuum cleaner in tellietubbyland before becoming PB rumour miller
This is all from memory though. I’ve gone to bed having been signed off work for a couple of days, which is not what I was expecting when i went to the doctor.
Labour are squeezing the LD vote a bit but tomorrow will all be about GOTV
The metro has farage in his new post brexit role in Last Of The Summer Wine
I am not English. I am British/Irish, but I feel dispossessed.
Incidentally, they have far more members and a better organised ground game these days. It may count for something.
Should be the most up to date there is
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1204898042169765890
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1204896005075935235
... and then finding he'd scraped home (against Mark Reckess) by 213 votes.
There is no polling that can predict a constituency to +/- 200 votes.
I am sure it is close in Chingford, but unless IDS has lost by a lot (unlikely IMO), then no-one can be certain about the result until 3.00 am tomorrow night.
This thread has been embargoed
Wonder how long it would take to blame her for something.
He might have been a plumber because he said he liked laying pipe.......
Is that my coat?
I’ve never heard of Graham’s number, but like it. It sounds like Robin’s number... which is Graham’s number multiplied by Pi.
Con 360
Lab 201
SNP 43
LD 21
PC 4
Green 1
Ind 1
Speaker 1
NI 18
BTW our candidate has knocked on 27,000 doors. He started 5 months ago when selected. He had to break it to his girlfriend that the deposit they'd saved for their first house....? He was going to need it. Now THAT is skin in the game....
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/media-centre/donations-and-loans-received-political-parties-and-non-party-campaigners-uk-fourth-weekly-pre-poll
Deleted - missed new thread open