Before people get too excited over the Savanta Comres poll , the fieldwork dates were the 9th and 10th of December.
That was at the height of phone gate . And so far it’s the only pollster to have done fieldwork only on those two days . That was before Ashworths idiocy .
We’d need to see another poll showing something similar or within the 5 to 7 range for later fieldwork .
Before people get too excited over the Savanta Comres poll , the fieldwork dates were the 9th and 10th of December.
That was at the height of phone gate . And so far it’s the only pollster to have done fieldwork only on those two days . That was before Ashworths idiocy .
We’d need to see another poll showing something similar or within the 5 to 7 range for later fieldwork .
And this could tie in with the very poor YouGov MRP result for Con on Tues compared to Mon.
Having said that - the flat BMG and Panelbase don't really tie in with the above.
Friends of my fiance texted her today, one saying she's voting Tory, another saying leaning Tory. As I do not know their voting history this anecdote is utterly useless, but it reassured my trembling bowels that I am not the sole elector voting Tory tomorrow....
Is it? I distinctly remember a survation poll being within 1 or 2%. Not had any of those.
We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority
there were two polls in 2017 which were that close Qriously had a Labour 2% lead and Survation with a Tory 1% lead
And what did Qriously say today....?
13% Tory lead
Exactly. Blues chill. Breathe.
Given where Boris and Jezza have been, I don't think they believe it is 13% lead.
Weird story on R5 driving home. Apparently since the beginning of December Boris has been in Tory held seats 2:1. Corbyn has been in opposition held seats ( mainly Tory) 2:1. Given the polling shouldn’t it have been the reverse?
This Tory campaign has been better than 2017 but it did seem excessively focused on just 9 seats more from an early stage.
That's what I noticed too. Corbyn's MRP has Labour leading the Consevatives, he has shifted his campaogn to Conservative marginals up to the 3% swing to Labour.
Does anyone personally know a candidate in tomorrow's election?
I do, and the pressure on my MP is incredible, even though there was a huge majority from the last election.
My wife has been a Borough Councillor for 16 years and has had a healthy majority in each election. When I spoke to her at the count at the last election the conversation went along the lines of:
Me: I've been counting the votes out of the boxes, can you add these up as I read them up out Candidate: Oh, fuck Off!
(Sorry Mods)
Good luck to all who put themselves forward. It is not a personal vote, we do not judge you on yourself, only on your political persuasion.
Having said that, if you are not of my political persuasion (see earlier post), eff off
Is it? I distinctly remember a survation poll being within 1 or 2%. Not had any of those.
We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority
there were two polls in 2017 which were that close Qriously had a Labour 2% lead and Survation with a Tory 1% lead
And what did Qriously say today....?
13% Tory lead
Exactly. Blues chill. Breathe.
Given where Boris and Jezza have been, I don't think they believe it is 13% lead.
Weird story on R5 driving home. Apparently since the beginning of December Boris has been in Tory held seats 2:1. Corbyn has been in opposition held seats ( mainly Tory) 2:1. Given the polling shouldn’t it have been the reverse?
This Tory campaign has been better than 2017 but it did seem excessively focused on just 9 seats more from an early stage.
That's what I noticed too. Corbyn's MRP has Labour leading the Consevatives, he has shifted his campaogn to Conservative marginals up to the 3% swing to Labour.
What is in Corbyn’s MRP? What would he be doing? Assuming very high youth turnout?
Before people get too excited over the Savanta Comres poll , the fieldwork dates were the 9th and 10th of December.
That was at the height of phone gate . And so far it’s the only pollster to have done fieldwork only on those two days . That was before Ashworths idiocy .
We’d need to see another poll showing something similar or within the 5 to 7 range for later fieldwork .
And this could tie in with the very poor YouGov MRP result for Con on Tues compared to Mon.
Having said that - the flat BMG and Panelbase don't really tie in with the above.
The Panelbase was conducted on 10 and 11 December so perhaps it had the increase in Labour negated by the dimwit Ashworths comments the next day .
SPIN always suspends. It suspends if you breath on it heavily. If you look at it sideways it shivers and starts crying. It's not an online market, it's an automated panic attack.
If another Winter election were to happen in the next few months, the general public is so unused to such frequent elections, and may be so fatigued and irritated, that it would be the most unpredictable for about 50 years, necessitate large-scale throwing out of models into industrial landfill, and make this one look a model of predictability, I think.
Imagine it though, bong at 10 and Labour the largest party.
It wouldn’t be a shock. These brexit years have been so cruel on voters. Cummings is smart. And there have been solid reasons to believe HY all through these months. But they both missed the deciding factor. Lunacy. https://darkstarastrology.com/full-moon-december-2019/
In my uncounted month, My crater of darkness surrounds me, Awaiting a spike of lunar light For my therianthropy.
Run with it Human Beast One with it under dyad chaste, By blood, fog, oak and mead The hare, the storm, wolf, the seed, This is the moment its reached its height This moment forth depreciate.
Esbat thirteen lunar Sabbath Potent and powerful, the fertility cycle, Her mounds and valleys wilderness beauty, Mother natures creation principle.
Run with it Human Beast One with it under dyad chaste, Bare skin in the lunar light The Goddess power at its height, This is the moment shes reached her peak This moment forth deteriorate.
A time was I poured with joy Climbing greenwood to the pasture, Slept under a spell of earthly delight Soul cradled in summer folia.
Run with it Human Beast One with it under dyad chaste, Wax and wane wheel of year Pause on your path and stand so still, This is the moment its reached its height This moment forth depreciate.
The human is no solitary creature But each beast hunts in different ways, The social animal with social behavior Is within itself still for organism of prey.
Run with it Human beast One with it under dyad chaste, Hunters instinct – stalk and wait To hunt to kill, hide or chase, This is the moment he reached his might This moment forth deteriorate.
At time of full moon, This moment forth on the wane ‘till peak of eternal light slips from view. A beast at rest under the darkest moon.
SPIN always suspends. It suspends if you breath on it heavily. If you look at it sideways it shivers and starts crying. It's not an online market, it's an automated panic attack.
It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.
42% of Labour Leavers preferring the Conservatives is not good news for Labour.
Look at the trend.
The trend would be favourable for Labour if the general election was in February and not tomorrow.
If that were to happen, the general public is so unused to such frequent elections, and may be so fatigued and irritated, that it would be the most unpredictable for about 50 years, necessitate large-scale throwing out of models, and make this one look a model of predictability, I think.
We're becoming more European/Italian with these frequent general elections.
Before people get too excited over the Savanta Comres poll , the fieldwork dates were the 9th and 10th of December.
That was at the height of phone gate . And so far it’s the only pollster to have done fieldwork only on those two days . That was before Ashworths idiocy .
We’d need to see another poll showing something similar or within the 5 to 7 range for later fieldwork .
And this could tie in with the very poor YouGov MRP result for Con on Tues compared to Mon.
Having said that - the flat BMG and Panelbase don't really tie in with the above.
The Panelbase was conducted on 10 and 11 December so perhaps it had the increase in Labour negated by the dimwit Ashworths comments the next day .
Hmm, this is splitting hairs I think, we're talking mere hours between poll endings. I think what we are seeing is some polls showing a real tightening, others not. Simple as that. Which set will be right? Get back to me in 24 hours and 30 minutes.....[gulp]
Let me tell you what my difference is regarding your article above:
1) I do not disagree that "The WA only governs the terms of Britain’s departure from the EU not the future relationship with it." . However, without that first step, there can be no fulfilment of the result that concluded with the majority of the electorate (that bothered to vote) electing to leave. 2) Your further statement "But even giving him credit for that (ignoring the fact that his renegotiation largely – though not entirely – involved a rehash of a previous version) the matters covered by the WA are very different and far fewer in number than those normally covered by an FTA." does not recognise that this first step is not a presentation of an FTA. Many commentators stated that Boris would not come back with a new WA, now they are moving on to "This isn't an FTA" or "He won't come back with an FTA"
I have no doubt that there are many obstacles to overcome, and I fully understand that there will be further negotiations to conclude a full FTA ....... and the article that you have written, and it articulates your position very well, is written from the standpoint of someone who really wants to Remain.
Those of us who want to leave are not persuaded.
Thank you for your thoughtful comments. I have long since assumed that we will leave. My main concern has been to avoid a disruptive hard exit. I wish Mrs May’s deal had been voted for because it is, IMO, better than the WA now on offer.
The reason I wrote this was not to persuade but because it seems to me that there has been very little discussion of what an FTA involves, the difficulties to be overcome and the trade offs and decisions to be made. Without such discussion I fear that we will get a sub-optimal FTA and also that when the consequences reveal themselves it will lead to more strife, anger and disappointment, especially among many who voted Leave.
The country has IMO deluded itself about what Brexit actually means and involves. Fine to vote for it and to accept the consequences. But not fine to do so on a false prospectus which is what I think all 3 parties are offering at this election. Britain has deluded itself about the EU - one reason for the Leave vote - and is now deluding itself about the what and how of departure. I think that a real pity.
One reason why I am wavering about voting for the Lib Dems, which is my natural preference, is that I think their Revoke Article 50 policy is strategically inept and the wrong policy. Asking people to think again is one thing. Ignoring their vote quite another.
We badly need some honest politicians to speak some hard truths about the choices facing us. We are not getting this, one reason why I am finding this election so depressing and the choice of who to vote or, even, whether to vote so hard.
So that's a crude mean of just under 10%, which is about where the mean polling gap has been for about the last 15 days, and also right in the middle of the Tory leads given by the two iterations of the YouGov MRP.
Incidentally, Qriosly got as close to the final Con-Lab gap in 2017 as Survation did (1.5% out, only in favour of Lab rather than Con.) It'll be interesting to see if Survation come out with a similar gap to theirs when they publish later on.
It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.
42% of Labour Leavers preferring the Conservatives is not good news for Labour.
Look at the trend.
The trend would be favourable for Labour if the general election was in February and not tomorrow.
If that were to happen, the general public is so unused to such frequent elections, and may be so fatigued and irritated, that it would be the most unpredictable for about 50 years, necessitate large-scale throwing out of models, and make this one look a model of predictability, I think.
We're becoming more European/Italian with these frequent general elections.
Or as we all used to dismissively describe the Italians "ungovernable".
Is it? I distinctly remember a survation poll being within 1 or 2%. Not had any of those.
We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority
there were two polls in 2017 which were that close Qriously had a Labour 2% lead and Survation with a Tory 1% lead
And what did Qriously say today....?
13% Tory lead
Exactly. Blues chill. Breathe.
Given where Boris and Jezza have been, I don't think they believe it is 13% lead.
Weird story on R5 driving home. Apparently since the beginning of December Boris has been in Tory held seats 2:1. Corbyn has been in opposition held seats ( mainly Tory) 2:1. Given the polling shouldn’t it have been the reverse?
This Tory campaign has been better than 2017 but it did seem excessively focused on just 9 seats more from an early stage.
That's what I noticed too. Corbyn's MRP has Labour leading the Consevatives, he has shifted his campaogn to Conservative marginals up to the 3% swing to Labour.
What is in Corbyn’s MRP? What would he be doing? Assuming very high youth turnout?
Just looking inside the polls that ask for past vote the Conservative lead should be just 2% because they are not getting enough 2017 LAB voters to increase their lead, they never did, from the start of the campaign it's single digits.
But weighting by past vote didn't work in 2015 or 2017, if it did Milliband and May would have won easily.
The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls. FridgeGate, PhoneInThePocketGate, FakePunchGate, etc.
Not likely. it is not in the interest of either Labour or Tory to change it and a hung parliament wouldn't have the political capital to spend on changing it.
The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls. FridgeGate, PhoneInThePocketGate, FakePunchGate, etc.
It's also the case that a lot of the modern media is powered by free labour from "social media", and the under-employed daytime posters tend not to vote Conservative.
The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls. FridgeGate, PhoneInThePocketGate, FakePunchGate, etc.
It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.
42% of Labour Leavers preferring the Conservatives is not good news for Labour.
Look at the trend.
The trend would be favourable for Labour if the general election was in February and not tomorrow.
If that were to happen, the general public is so unused to such frequent elections, and may be so fatigued and irritated, that it would be the most unpredictable for about 50 years, necessitate large-scale throwing out of models, and make this one look a model of predictability, I think.
We're becoming more European/Italian with these frequent general elections.
Have the spanish ruled out a third GE in a year yet? I'd be exhausted. What about Israel? Could be three in a calendar year for them too.
It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.
42% of Labour Leavers preferring the Conservatives is not good news for Labour.
It isn't good news for Labour. But no-one expects Labour to lead the next government. The question is whether the Conservatives get an absolute majority. The question doesn't necessarily match that situation. It's possible to vote Labour without really expecting them to win.
So that's a crude mean of just under 10%, which is about where the mean polling gap has been for about the last 15 days, and also right in the middle of the Tory leads given by the two iterations of the YouGov MRP.
Incidentally, Qriosly got as close to the final Con-Lab gap in 2017 as Survation did (1.5% out, only in favour of Lab rather than Con.) It'll be interesting to see if Survation come out with a similar gap to theirs when they publish later on.
Let me tell you what my difference is regarding your article above:
1) I do not disagree that "The WA ly – involved a rehash of a previous version) the matters covered by the WA are very different and far fewer in number than those normally covered by an FTA." does not recognise that this first step is not a presentation of an FTA. Many commentators stated that Boris would not come back with a new WA, now they are moving on to "This isn't an FTA" or "He won't come back with an FTA"
I have no doubt that there are many obstacles to overcome, and I fully understand that there will be further negotiations to conclude a full FTA ....... and the article that you have written, and it articulates your position very well, is written from the standpoint of someone who really wants to Remain.
Those of us who want to leave are not persuaded.
Thank you for your thoughtful comments. I have long since assumed that we will leave. My main concern has been to avoid a disruptive hard exit. I wish Mrs May’s deal had been voted for because it is, IMO, better than the WA now on offer.
The reason I wrote this was not to persuade but because it seems to me that there has been very little discussion of what an FTA involves, the difficulties to be overcome and the trade offs and decisions to be made. Without such discussion I fear that we will get a sub-optimal FTA and also that when the consequences reveal themselves it will lead to more strife, anger and disappointment, especially among many who voted Leave.
The country has IMO deluded itself about what Brexit actually means and involves. Fine to vote for it and to accept the consequences. But not fine to do so on a false prospectus which is what I think all 3 parties are offering at this election. Britain has deluded itself about the EU - one reason for the Leave vote - and is now deluding itself about the what and how of departure. I think that a real pity.
One reason why I am wavering about voting for the Lib Dems, which is my natural preference, is that I think their Revoke Article 50 policy is strategically inept and the wrong policy. Asking people to think again is one thing. Ignoring their vote quite another.
We badly need some honest politicians to speak some hard truths about the choices facing us. We are not getting this, one reason why I am finding this election so depressing and the choice of who to vote or, even, whether to vote so hard.
The revoke policy only ever kicked in if there was a LibDem majority. You can probably risk ignoring it now.
At least they have been consistent in articulating the long term damage that Brexit will do.
Is it? I distinctly remember a survation poll being within 1 or 2%. Not had any of those.
We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority
there were two polls in 2017 which were that close Qriously had a Labour 2% lead and Survation with a Tory 1% lead
And what did Qriously say today....?
13% Tory lead
Exactly. Blues chill. Breathe.
Given where Boris and Jezza have been, I don't think they believe it is 13% lead.
Weird story on R5 driving home. Apparently since the beginning of December Boris has been in Tory held seats 2:1. Corbyn has been in opposition held seats ( mainly Tory) 2:1. Given the polling shouldn’t it have been the reverse?
This Tory campaign has been better than 2017 but it did seem excessively focused on just 9 seats more from an early stage.
That's what I noticed too. Corbyn's MRP has Labour leading the Consevatives, he has shifted his campaogn to Conservative marginals up to the 3% swing to Labour.
What is in Corbyn’s MRP? What would he be doing? Assuming very high youth turnout?
Just looking inside the polls that ask for past vote the Conservative lead should be just 2% because they are not getting enough 2017 LAB voters to increase their lead, they never did, from the start of the campaign it's single digits.
But weighting by past vote didn't work in 2015 or 2017, if it did Milliband and May would have won easily.
I thought YouGov had far more 2017 Lab voting Con than 2017 Con voting Lab.
If above correct, Con lead must surely increase from 2017.
It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.
42% of Labour Leavers preferring the Conservatives is not good news for Labour.
It isn't good news for Labour. But no-one expects Labour to lead the next government. The question is whether the Conservatives get an absolute majority. The question doesn't necessarily match that situation. It's possible to vote Labour without really expecting them to win.
Sure, but polls are quite consistent that more people have switched Lab to Con since 2017 than the other way around.
Whatever the actual lead is on the day - I'm guessing between 5-7% - the general feel of the parties to me seems to be that the Tories are not at all confident, even pessimistic, and Labour are nervous but putting on a braver face.
Why are labour nervous, what have they got to lose
The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls.
It's not been brilliant, but it's been pretty good.
MUCH better than 2017. The problem is they got tired in the last few days and when Boyfloorgate happened they panicked.
The one single stand out ad of the entire campaign was theirs. Boris' Love Actually spoof.
That's of little importance. What really matters is whether they are getting targeted messages out to specific segments of the voting population in the right seats (as they did very well in 2015) - for example, so that White Van Man in a Midlands marginal gets to hear how badly he'll be hit by Labour's plans for tax changes. I don't know the answer to that question.
Is it? I distinctly remember a survation poll being within 1 or 2%. Not had any of those.
We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority
there were two polls in 2017 which were that close Qriously had a Labour 2% lead and Survation with a Tory 1% lead
And what did Qriously say today....?
13% Tory lead
Exactly. Blues chill. Breathe.
Given where Boris and Jezza have been, I don't think they believe it is 13% lead.
Weird story on R5 driving home. Apparently since the beginning of December Boris has been in Tory held seats 2:1. Corbyn has been in opposition held seats ( mainly Tory) 2:1. Given the polling shouldn’t it have been the reverse?
This Tory campaign has been better than 2017 but it did seem excessively focused on just 9 seats more from an early stage.
That's what I noticed too. Corbyn's MRP has Labour leading the Consevatives, he has shifted his campaogn to Conservative marginals up to the 3% swing to Labour.
What is in Corbyn’s MRP? What would he be doing? Assuming very high youth turnout?
Just looking inside the polls that ask for past vote the Conservative lead should be just 2% because they are not getting enough 2017 LAB voters to increase their lead, they never did, from the start of the campaign it's single digits.
But weighting by past vote didn't work in 2015 or 2017, if it did Milliband and May would have won easily.
But what Corbyn did so well in 2017 was found undecided voters and those who don’t normally vote. He didn’t really encourage Tory to Labour switchers then.
I should also point out that my hard left Labour friend was nearly persuaded to vote for Boris by the Love Actually video!
So this stuff works.
Bozo is a fraud. He couldn’t even be bothered to come up with an original idea .
Labours Rosena Allin-Khan already had a take on Love Actually a few weeks back .
Oh FFS, She ripped off a movie scene, just as many political campaigns have ripped off the SAME scene (Hillary Clinton did one), and of course the original scene was ripped off a Bob Dylan film clip.
OK, I'm going to rise to the challenge, and I'm staying on topic as well:
There once was a PM called Boris Who found in high office no solace. "Crikes! To get Brexit done Is really no fun, I think I'll go back to my Horace".
There was a young Liberal called Swinson, Who was fresh, energetic and winsome. But she hacked off some folk, When she stood for Revoke, And the voters decided to rinse 'em.
The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls.
It's not been brilliant, but it's been pretty good.
MUCH better than 2017. The problem is they got tired in the last few days and when Boyfloorgate happened they panicked.
The one single stand out ad of the entire campaign was theirs. Boris' Love Actually spoof.
They stole Love Actually from a Labour MP. It wasn’t their idea.
See my other post. Lots of political campaigns have used the Love Actually Meme, and the meme itself is a parody! - of a Bob Dylan vid.
I think what annoys Boris-haters is that Boris' team did it so professionally. It was annoyingly good enough to make lefties retweet it angrily, it was annoyingly smart enough to engage Tory loyalists. Making it go viral. Plus, lovers of the movie shared it endlessly.
It will be seen as a model of its kind for future campaigns. It even got salience in the US, Oz and European media.
Whatever the actual lead is on the day - I'm guessing between 5-7% - the general feel of the parties to me seems to be that the Tories are not at all confident, even pessimistic, and Labour are nervous but putting on a braver face.
Why are labour nervous, what have they got to lose
Quite a lot, particularly in terms of any internal battles. Sub 200 and it's a horrendous night, the leadership has no place to hide, the party would have some very tough questions to ask itself. 250 and its not great, certainly, but they will have retained large chunks of the red wall, and can think that 'one more heave' may do it next time, it keeps the Corbynite wing strong even though it will be a loss.
You do realise that YOU are allowed to update Wiki? It's not even that hard...
I tried once and couldn't do it.
Nowadays you really need to open an account, tied to a regular email address, and edit from a secure rather than public IP. They are - quite sensibly - limiting the scope for anonymous IP editors to edit many pages.
Comments
Wut
Having said that - the flat BMG and Panelbase don't really tie in with the above.
Corbyn's MRP has Labour leading the Consevatives, he has shifted his campaogn to Conservative marginals up to the 3% swing to Labour.
HP - my final prediction. To the surprise of nobody.
But I’ll be here regardless.
I do, and the pressure on my MP is incredible, even though there was a huge majority from the last election.
My wife has been a Borough Councillor for 16 years and has had a healthy majority in each election. When I spoke to her at the count at the last election the conversation went along the lines of:
Me: I've been counting the votes out of the boxes, can you add these up as I read them up out
Candidate: Oh, fuck Off!
(Sorry Mods)
Good luck to all who put themselves forward. It is not a personal vote, we do not judge you on yourself, only on your political persuasion.
Having said that, if you are not of my political persuasion (see earlier post), eff off
But it feels like it is not quite enough, overall, especially with so many postals returned during a period of higher support for the Tories.
Breaking: numbers look bigger if you double them.
My crater of darkness surrounds me,
Awaiting a spike of lunar light
For my therianthropy.
Run with it Human Beast
One with it under dyad chaste,
By blood, fog, oak and mead
The hare, the storm, wolf, the seed,
This is the moment its reached its height
This moment forth depreciate.
Esbat thirteen lunar Sabbath
Potent and powerful, the fertility cycle,
Her mounds and valleys wilderness beauty,
Mother natures creation principle.
Run with it Human Beast
One with it under dyad chaste,
Bare skin in the lunar light
The Goddess power at its height,
This is the moment shes reached her peak
This moment forth deteriorate.
A time was I poured with joy
Climbing greenwood to the pasture,
Slept under a spell of earthly delight
Soul cradled in summer folia.
Run with it Human Beast
One with it under dyad chaste,
Wax and wane wheel of year
Pause on your path and stand so still,
This is the moment its reached its height
This moment forth depreciate.
The human is no solitary creature
But each beast hunts in different ways,
The social animal with social behavior
Is within itself still for organism of prey.
Run with it Human beast
One with it under dyad chaste,
Hunters instinct – stalk and wait
To hunt to kill, hide or chase,
This is the moment he reached his might
This moment forth deteriorate.
At time of full moon,
This moment forth on the wane
‘till peak of eternal light slips from view.
A beast at rest under the darkest moon.
(For those who don't know, Arcadia + Power Station = Duran Duran + Robert Palmer).
The reason I wrote this was not to persuade but because it seems to me that there has been very little discussion of what an FTA involves, the difficulties to be overcome and the trade offs and decisions to be made. Without such discussion I fear that we will get a sub-optimal FTA and also that when the consequences reveal themselves it will lead to more strife, anger and disappointment, especially among many who voted Leave.
The country has IMO deluded itself about what Brexit actually means and involves. Fine to vote for it and to accept the consequences. But not fine to do so on a false prospectus which is what I think all 3 parties are offering at this election. Britain has deluded itself about the EU - one reason for the Leave vote - and is now deluding itself about the what and how of departure. I think that a real pity.
One reason why I am wavering about voting for the Lib Dems, which is my natural preference, is that I think their Revoke Article 50 policy is strategically inept and the wrong policy. Asking people to think again is one thing. Ignoring their vote quite another.
We badly need some honest politicians to speak some hard truths about the choices facing us. We are not getting this, one reason why I am finding this election so depressing and the choice of who to vote or, even, whether to vote so hard.
https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/1204858042124292099
ComRes 5%
Panelbase 9%
BMG 9%
NumberCruncherPolitics 10%
Qriosly 13%
Opinium 12%
So that's a crude mean of just under 10%, which is about where the mean polling gap has been for about the last 15 days, and also right in the middle of the Tory leads given by the two iterations of the YouGov MRP.
Incidentally, Qriosly got as close to the final Con-Lab gap in 2017 as Survation did (1.5% out, only in favour of Lab rather than Con.) It'll be interesting to see if Survation come out with a similar gap to theirs when they publish later on.
But weighting by past vote didn't work in 2015 or 2017, if it did Milliband and May would have won easily.
So this stuff works.
KLAXON on standby.
ComRes already recorded, BMG 3 hours ago not.
That advert was the most searched topic yesterday in the UK.
But today its the Fridge.
MUCH better than 2017. The problem is they got tired in the last few days and when Boyfloorgate happened they panicked.
The one single stand out ad of the entire campaign was theirs. Boris' Love Actually spoof.
At least they have been consistent in articulating the long term damage that Brexit will do.
Labours Rosena Allin-Khan already had a take on Love Actually a few weeks back .
If above correct, Con lead must surely increase from 2017.
In fact the only things I remember from the Conservative campaign is:
Get Brexit Done, We will close your favourite TV station, and Don't take the money from Anti-Semites.
The only thing I remember from Labour's campaign is:
We will give you loads of lovely Money.
Wankpiffle of the highest order.
Who was fresh, energetic and winsome.
But she hacked off some folk,
When she stood for Revoke,
And the voters decided to rinse 'em.
What does Jeremy know???
What does Jeremy know???
I think what annoys Boris-haters is that Boris' team did it so professionally. It was annoyingly good enough to make lefties retweet it angrily, it was annoyingly smart enough to engage Tory loyalists. Making it go viral. Plus, lovers of the movie shared it endlessly.
It will be seen as a model of its kind for future campaigns. It even got salience in the US, Oz and European media.