In any normal election these would be AMAZING polls for the Tories, and point to a huge landslide
It could be a very very good night for them, and more of a shock to the opposition than it should be, since it is within the realms of possibility on these polls. While I definitely tend to gut feel think the lower predictions make more sense, we should not be surprised if Boris has a mahoosive majority.
I think we might be running the risk here of seeing this election through the prism of what happened last time. Mortimer's comments today about his canvassing experiences suggest the Tory vote is likely to be a lot stronger than maybe we thought. One other thought might be on turnout - despite it being December, could we get a surprise turnout of traditional non-voters who help push the Tories over the line? If that is the case, we are in landslide territory.
And running the risk of seeing the election through social media?
Tories lead now the same in both their marginals and Labour marginals, bad result for the SNP, just 2% up on 2017 and Labour and the Tories holding most of their Scottish vote
Still waiting for Survation, YouGov and ICM, assuming they're all publishing tonight...? Ipsos MORI expected tomorrow morning I believe.
Why am I drawn to the 5% poll and worried, yet not calmed by the 5 x 10% and over polls?
2017 has a lot to answer for. I was fine until this evening.
You know all those 2016 voters that came out of nowhere, those never really voted before voters? The ones that screwed assumptions about remaining. They’re coming out tomorrow. And for one party.
The polling average hasn't changed for about 2 weeks.
It's still 43/33 after tonight's polls.
Yeah, lots of noise, but the overall position seems remarkably stable.
What I think we have seen is initially the Tory lead grew at they squeezed the Brexit Party, then Labour have managed to squeeze Lib Dem share right down, and so we have seen swings, but actually looking like lead is the same as we began 6 weeks ago.
I’m going with rcs1000 prediction of 90 seat Tory majority Minimum . In fact I’ll stick my neck out and say tories will get 380 plus seats . 108 seat majority
Still waiting for Survation, YouGov and ICM, assuming they're all publishing tonight...? Ipsos MORI expected tomorrow morning I believe.
Why am I drawn to the 5% poll and worried, yet not calmed by the 5 x 10% and over polls?
2017 has a lot to answer for. I was fine until this evening.
What worries me is how the Tories have morphed into an English nationalist pressure group that doesn't give 2 flying fucks about the economic health of the country and fights an election on an entirely mendacious theme of "get Brexit done" that is obviously bollox. What became of your party? From what I see you are something much lower than pond life amoeba...
The market is still clearly spooked, a load of 10%+ leads on the eve of a GE you would think would have the price dropping through the floor, but it hasn't.
I'm getting "We're alright!" vibes from Johnson's rally.
"We're all LEFT!" from Jezza's?
Wow. Jez a finally cutting through to his leavers with his own brexit plan? Why a Labour negotiation? To set in law we will not have weaker workers rights, weaker consumer rights, weaker environmental rights. Boris deal does not do this, his deal simply says trust him on that. Are we the people going to trust you on our rights Boris? No we aren’t!
Has to be one of the worst political campaigns ever. They have on one side a bungling bonking buffoon and the other an anti-semite enabling terrorist sympathizer and they still can't get more than the odd beardy sandal wearer to say I agree with Jo....
Not to mention that this is the Brexit election, with 52-54% of the population in the remain camp, and they're the only national remain party.
In any normal election these would be AMAZING polls for the Tories, and point to a huge landslide
It could be a very very good night for them, and more of a shock to the opposition than it should be, since it is within the realms of possibility on these polls. While I definitely tend to gut feel think the lower predictions make more sense, we should not be surprised if Boris has a mahoosive majority.
No offence, but make your fucking mind up
No offence, but I have made my mind up, I have said I think the lower predictions make more sense, and stated I think the Tories will get a small majority of around 25-30. So fuck you. All I've said is that even though I think they will get that many I, and others, cannot be surprised if there is a big Tory majority. So fuck you again.
Some of you may be aware of the music subgenre sometimes known as "trailer music" or "production music": music written for commercial use, esp. trailers. The Wonder Woman 1984 trailer came out this week with a trailer cover of "Blue Monday" which I particularly liked. The trailer music for it is on YouTube and you can find it here and here.
I think you mentioned my fave band the other night: "Ready Player One" also had a Depeche Mode cover.
In any normal election these would be AMAZING polls for the Tories, and point to a huge landslide
It could be a very very good night for them, and more of a shock to the opposition than it should be, since it is within the realms of possibility on these polls. While I definitely tend to gut feel think the lower predictions make more sense, we should not be surprised if Boris has a mahoosive majority.
No offence, but make your fucking mind up
No offence, but I have made my mind up, I have said I think the lower predictions make more sense, and stated I think the Tories will get a small majority of around 25-30. So fuck you. All I've said is that even though I think they will get that many I, and others, cannot be surprised if there is a big Tory majority. So fuck you again.
DeltaPoll suggests Tory vote very flat - could prove remarkably efficient or inefficient depending on a small margin...
The crosstabs have them 9% ahead of labour in labour held marginals, which is very good news for them, although it's a subsample and thus should be taken with a grain of salt.
I'm getting "We're alright!" vibes from Johnson's rally.
"We're all LEFT!" from Jezza's?
Wow. Jez a finally cutting through to his leavers with his own brexit plan? Why a Labour negotiation? To set in law we will not have weaker workers rights, weaker consumer rights, weaker environmental rights. Boris deal does not do this, his deal simply says trust him on that. Are we the people going to trust you on our rights Boris? No we aren’t!
Now he’s doing a Boris impersonation about not knowing where the new hospitals are building
I don't like all these polls making it look like a ten point lead... I'm much more relaxed when I'm panicking. We're three minutes from the end of the film all slapping our backs that the bad guy has been defeated - he's got one more rise from the apparent grave to come yet...
Purely anecdotal but in past hour 2 whatsapps from mates. One in safe Lab seat (Lewisham West & Penge) who was voting Green when we met on the wknd but now voting Tory along with his wife. Other usual Lab voter (centrist) in Cov South voting Tory because he hates Corbyn and their candidate Zarah Sultana too radical. I hope others feel the same way.
The risk of Corbyn hopefully favours the Tories with undecideds tomorrow.
Well he’s hardly going to say “we’re f**cked” is he?
LauraK. has already let that cat out of the bag.
She’s let us known Labour hasn’t done well on postal votes. But why would they, they’re skewed to the elderly.
Which could, of course, be completely counterproductive. Isn't this what Johnson wanted to avoid? Complecency.
"Us Tories have it in the bag! Even the BBC said so. Landslide for Johnson.... think I'll stay at home instead." whilst Labour voters think, "Must go and vote. Got to try and stop the landslide at least."
I think it was really stupid for LauraK to say what she said. But it'll help Labour, not the Conservatives on polling day.
DeltaPoll suggests Tory vote very flat - could prove remarkably efficient or inefficient depending on a small margin...
The crosstabs have them 9% ahead of labour in labour held marginals, which is very good news for them, although it's a subsample and thus should be taken with a grain of salt.
You mean pinch? Like you would do to a pig stuck in a poke?
In any normal election these would be AMAZING polls for the Tories, and point to a huge landslide
It could be a very very good night for them, and more of a shock to the opposition than it should be, since it is within the realms of possibility on these polls. While I definitely tend to gut feel think the lower predictions make more sense, we should not be surprised if Boris has a mahoosive majority.
No offence, but make your fucking mind up
No offence, but I have made my mind up, I have said I think the lower predictions make more sense, and stated I think the Tories will get a small majority of around 25-30. So fuck you. All I've said is that even though I think they will get that many I, and others, cannot be surprised if there is a big Tory majority. So fuck you again.
The polling average hasn't changed for about 2 weeks.
It's still 43/33 after tonight's polls.
Yeah, lots of noise, but the overall position seems remarkably stable.
What I think we have seen is initially the Tory lead grew at they squeezed the Brexit Party, then Labour have managed to squeeze Lib Dem share right down, and so we have seen swings, but actually looking like lead is the same as we began 6 weeks ago.
Yes, that's about right. Boris is well ahead of the anti-Semitic Trot, thank goodness, and I think we can now safely rule out a late LibDem tsunami.
So a solid but not spectacular Boris majority, maybe a bit bigger than the latest YouGov MRP, would be my expectation. A few gains for the LibDems, but not many. In Scotland, a mixed result with the SNP gaining a few but not as many as looked likely a couple of weeks ago.
Get Brexit done is clearly overplayed to give the impression that it will all go away, but perhaps I overestimate the public in thinking that most people do know that in reality only this phase will be done, and many regard that as sufficient progress - it's clearly done enough for opponents, hence fighting so hard to not be this much done.
Unfortunately most people are, I hate to say it, both ill informed and uneducated when it comes to anything technical, and Brexit certainly is technical.
My wife doesn't understand this. She often goes around saying things like, "But surely everyone understands the impact of the Prison Reform Act [1] on the state of prisons in the 1830s?" She simply can't comprehend that most people neither know, nor care to know about anything prior to when they were born. Her hairdresser said to her, after she said that she was going to Berlin on holiday, "Oh, I love Russia me!" My wife still doesn't get it. Slip of the tongue, she thinks.
Most people aren't idiots. But most people aren't interested. Johnson is saying 'Get Brexit Done' and he's saying he has a 'great deal'. As no one can deny that he does have a deal, they don't believe Jo Swinson, or Jeremy Corbyn when they say its a rubbish deal (Which I think it is). Sour grapes from sour losers, they think.
Johnson will get his majority tomorrow I'm afraid. Then he won't get Brexit done. And by next summer, the whole lot will be unravelling before his eyes. But he won't care. BEST RESULT SINCE 1987! I beat Major, Hague, Howard, Cameron and May! I'm a GENIUS!
[1] I've no idea if this is the right act my wife goes on about. Just proves my point further.
The problem I have with all politicians is that they never have a good thing to say about the other side. So when one lot says the other lot got a bad deal no one believes them because they would say that wouldn’t they.
Or its the scare Flat Cap Fred into actually getting out and voting...The Tories don't want the "its in the bag" message to all those who usually vote Labour and want Brexit sorted.
It's easy to forget that Tony Blair's two landslides in 1997 and 2001 were won with leads of 13% and 9%. And here we are not sure whether a 10% lead will give the Tories any sort of majority.
The polling average hasn't changed for about 2 weeks.
It's still 43/33 after tonight's polls.
Survation could show Lab lead of +1.
It would be funny, in a dark way, if no poll had Labour in the lead but they actually were more popular than the Tories like they act like they are, and they win on that basis.
The Nats are going to be relatively frustrated tomorrow. Is my hunch
Not mine. They should take more than half of the Scottish Conservative seats IMO and all but a couple of Labour ones.
Key points:
The SCON surge was due more to SNP to Con switchers than previous Lab or LD voters choosing tactically from a Unionist perspective. We can presume those ex-SNP voters aren't especially unionist, nor necessarily they will stick with the SCONs this time.
Any collapse in the Labour vote in Scotland harms the Conservatives because they will go to the SNP and vote them out.
1. Why did people switch from SNP to Con in the first place? Could they have been Yes/Leave voters prioritising the latter? A lot of SNP voters actually backed Leave in the first place. Some will still support it out of conviction; others may not care one way or another about being in the EU, but might regard leaving it as liable to improve their chances of winning Indyref2. In any event, why reverse position before Leave has happened? 2. Parts of Scotland that return Conservative MPs do not, generally speaking, contain large reservoirs of Labour support (in part, presumably, because much of the residual Labour vote in those areas was also Unionist and has already switched sides to the Tories to frustrate the SNP. And, as an extension, it's probably fair to suppose that whatever is left of the Labour vote in SCon-held seats is bedrock support (surviving habit voters and those who are genuinely enthusiastic about the Corbyn project.)
Everyone's expecting Scottish Labour to get another drubbing because it's now a niche product, but the polling evidence suggests the Tory share holding up quite well. Should they benefit once again from some Unionist tactical support then they stand a good chance of holding most of what they already have, even if significant numbers of gains look quite beyond them.
On the subject of massively ranges for predictions:
In mathematics there is a famous number called Graham’s Number after its discover. The number itself is one of the class of stupidly big numbers that are too big to ever calculate; indeed early on in the recipe for finding the number you are dealing with numbers which are literally too big to fit in the universe. This means that if you could write each digit in the smallest volume known to science there would not be enough room in the visible universe to write it down.
The best bit about this number is that is was not actually the answer to the problem Graham was trying to solve, only the upper bound. The lower bound was... 3.
Predictions which range from a hung parliament to a Tory majority in three figures are pretty mild by comparison.
Or, internal polling good and not wanting to risk complacency.
That’s quite a positive line if they’re dealing in size of majority rather than hung parliament. Majority under 20 over 10 will do most Tories but anything above 20 a bonus
Nah, Tories 43 perhaps 42, lab 35 top. However Blair’s landslide 97 wasn’t gap between him and Tory’s, it was anti tory tactical. It could get hung with 8 point gap
It's easy to forget that Tony Blair's two landslides in 1997 and 2001 were won with leads of 13% and 9%. And here we are not sure whether a 10% lead will give the Tories any sort of majority.
Mori had a 24% lead just 2 days before polling day, the Tories would still be out of power now if that happened!
The Tories have inflicted three years of Brexit twattery on us...plunging the country into a nihilistic, populist nightmare.
Please, can someone tell me why they deserve a majority tomorrow.? And the answer cannot mention Corbyn. Thanks
Something something get Brexit done
You know...today our administrator just blurted out racist stuff as if it was normal...fucking Tories...you've opened up the box with your Brexit shitshow and you've made this country a worse place. Well fucking done
Comments
2017 has a lot to answer for. I was fine until this evening.
It's still 43/33 after tonight's polls.
And running the risk of seeing the election through social media?
Con 44
Lab 36
Ld 11
Safe Lab:
Con: 31
Lab: 48
Safe Con:
Con: 56
Lab: 29
Lab/Con Marginals (all):
Con: 47
Lab: 38
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1204886320205750272
Why a Labour negotiation? To set in law we will not have weaker workers rights, weaker consumer rights, weaker environmental rights. Boris deal does not do this, his deal simply says trust him on that. Are we the people going to trust you on our rights Boris? No we aren’t!
Shit.
The risk of Corbyn hopefully favours the Tories with undecideds tomorrow.
Final vote percentages:
Tories: 41%
Labour 38%
"Us Tories have it in the bag! Even the BBC said so. Landslide for Johnson.... think I'll stay at home instead." whilst Labour voters think, "Must go and vote. Got to try and stop the landslide at least."
I think it was really stupid for LauraK to say what she said. But it'll help Labour, not the Conservatives on polling day.
Please, can someone tell me why they deserve a majority tomorrow.? And the answer cannot mention Corbyn. Thanks
So a solid but not spectacular Boris majority, maybe a bit bigger than the latest YouGov MRP, would be my expectation. A few gains for the LibDems, but not many. In Scotland, a mixed result with the SNP gaining a few but not as many as looked likely a couple of weeks ago.
Ah, internal polling is not so good
"Hey guys, we have a new poll coming out! It took a lot of work and it shows not much happening so you can ignore it!"
2. Parts of Scotland that return Conservative MPs do not, generally speaking, contain large reservoirs of Labour support (in part, presumably, because much of the residual Labour vote in those areas was also Unionist and has already switched sides to the Tories to frustrate the SNP. And, as an extension, it's probably fair to suppose that whatever is left of the Labour vote in SCon-held seats is bedrock support (surviving habit voters and those who are genuinely enthusiastic about the Corbyn project.)
Everyone's expecting Scottish Labour to get another drubbing because it's now a niche product, but the polling evidence suggests the Tory share holding up quite well. Should they benefit once again from some Unionist tactical support then they stand a good chance of holding most of what they already have, even if significant numbers of gains look quite beyond them.
In mathematics there is a famous number called Graham’s Number after its discover. The number itself is one of the class of stupidly big numbers that are too big to ever calculate; indeed early on in the recipe for finding the number you are dealing with numbers which are literally too big to fit in the universe. This means that if you could write each digit in the smallest volume known to science there would not be enough room in the visible universe to write it down.
The best bit about this number is that is was not actually the answer to the problem Graham was trying to solve, only the upper bound. The lower bound was... 3.
Predictions which range from a hung parliament to a Tory majority in three figures are pretty mild by comparison.
Yeah not so good
Just a note for SLab rampers...
#GlasgowNorthEastSNPGain
However Blair’s landslide 97 wasn’t gap between him and Tory’s, it was anti tory tactical. It could get hung with 8 point gap
Con 42.9
Lab 33.8
LD 12.2
Everyone can see my final prediction.
Please do follow me if you want to abuse me off here
'She's turned the weans against us' is shorthand for bitter, drunk male ranting.
Likewise Labour are headed for defeat. Their biggest enemy now is despondent voters. They need to emphasise how close it is.