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Past performance is not a guide to the future. A caveat plastered all over investment products which might usefully be remembered by those anxiously scanning polls or those politicians explaining why the PM’s success in getting a revised Withdrawal Agreement means that he can reach an FTA with the EU before the transition period ends in 385 days time.
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Labour have put up Andy McDonald for Brillo this evening. If I see Barry Gardiner later, I'll know the jig's up.
Westminster #GE2019
Con 43% (NC)
Lab 34% (NC)
Lib Dem 11% (-2%)
Brexit Party 4% (+1%)*
Green 3% (+1%)
*BXP share where they’re standing = 8% (+1%)
EU Ref
Remain 52% (NC)
Leave 48% (NC)
Dec 10-11
Sample 3,174
Either way, anyone voting for him should hang their heads in shame.
It may be we can complete a FTA within a year and before the transition period ends or it may take a bit longer but a FTA will be done
The polls in the last week are useless due to herding.
Anyone voting for him should hang their head in shame!!
9 from BMG and PanelBase no change
9 is the number used for the MRP
I just wanted to thank Mike, the header writers and everyone for the content over the last few weeks. Lots to think about. Various comments have struck me as truth that have altered my thinking here and there.
Try to remember that things are rarely as bad as you fear or as good as you hope. The British public tend to be wise in the end - let's try to trust them.
Does that seem rather high?
*lies buried under weight of opinion polls*
Good news for team Blue as it suggests the last few days have had no significant impact in VI.
(For the record, he’s right about Johnson, but totally wrong about Corbyn.)
I said to my good lady today whatever happens tomorrow the mps have been elected into a fresh HOC and there can be no complaints as there was with so many mps just squatting in the last session
Do you know any other non racists who talk about "watermelon smiles" and "Piccaninnies" or that say "Islam is the problem."or compare Muslim women to letter boxes or Bank Robbers?
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/dec/11/tv-naturalist-david-bellamy-dies-aged-86
Although of course we know that Bozo will extend. Whatever he says.
Yes, I had forgotten the ritual morning of completely useless anecdotes from polling stations. A good reason to go out campaigning
Somebody has added the MRPs (YG and FocalData) to the Wiki poll table - do you think I should include them in ELBOW?
Having checked their twitter feed their final poll was the one released on Monday .
Who has been excluded?
Food for thought when using published electorate numbers for boundary reviews.
(ICM's previous four had leads of 10%, 7%, 7%, and most recently 6%.)
So up 1.4% - I guess that's roughly in line with population increase.
Implies no change in % of people registered / not registered.
So all those articles about registration surges were complete rubbish - surprise, surprise!
And none of the journalists who wrote those articles have bothered to follow up the actual data - again surprise, surprise!
*OK, not the whole problem. The racism, dishonesty and incompetence are issues as well.
I'm not sure that The BBC has learnt from the coverage in 2015, and 2017. The only saving grace is John Curtice discussing what to look for on Friday morning.
At least average them 7.5%