Exciting times for Labour supporters. Corbyn could be in Downing Street within 40 hours.
Only if Boris invites him for drinks.
I was going to say - on tonight's polls, only with a loudhailer on the other side of the gates but - we're all still not really enlightened by tonight's polls so far, I think.
Exciting times for Labour supporters. Corbyn could be in Downing Street within 40 hours.
Indeed he could, and if the British public put him there it will be fair enough. They can't say they've not been warned though and they'll repent at leisure.
Is it? I distinctly remember a survation poll being within 1 or 2%. Not had any of those.
We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority
there were two polls in 2017 which were that close Qriously had a Labour 2% lead and Survation with a Tory 1% lead
And what did Qriously say today....?
13% Tory lead
Exactly. Blues chill. Breathe.
Given where Boris and Jezza have been, I don't think they believe it is 13% lead.
Weird story on R5 driving home. Apparently since the beginning of December Boris has been in Tory held seats 2:1. Corbyn has been in opposition held seats ( mainly Tory) 2:1. Given the polling shouldn’t it have been the reverse?
This Tory campaign has been better than 2017 but it did seem excessively focused on just 9 seats more from an early stage.
That's what I noticed too. Corbyn's MRP has Labour leading the Consevatives, he has shifted his campaogn to Conservative marginals up to the 3% swing to Labour.
What is in Corbyn’s MRP? What would he be doing? Assuming very high youth turnout?
Just looking inside the polls that ask for past vote the Conservative lead should be just 2% because they are not getting enough 2017 LAB voters to increase their lead, they never did, from the start of the campaign it's single digits.
But weighting by past vote didn't work in 2015 or 2017, if it did Milliband and May would have won easily.
But what Corbyn did so well in 2017 was found undecided voters and those who don’t normally vote. He didn’t really encourage Tory to Labour switchers then.
That's why I don't think weighting by past vote works. But I can't find any other explanation as to why Corbyn is capaigning almost exclusively in these Conservative marginals these past few days.
One thing is certain, Corbynonomics isn't going anywhere....
Having been adopted by the government, what more is there for it to achieve?
I haven't noticed train nationalizations by Boris.
In fact the only things I remember from the Conservative campaign is:
Get Brexit Done, We will close your favourite TV station, and Don't take the money from Anti-Semites.
The only thing I remember from Labour's campaign is:
We will give you loads of lovely Money.
No. There’s been hope. Rather than a dirty tricks campaign there has been positivity.
What this country needs is to start getting what matters, right. And what matters most is how we live in our communities. Instead of talk about ”putting down like unwanted dogs“ those people along our street who need to use foodbanks, and yes a Tory Candidate actually did say this, how the mask has been slipping this campaign, families and friends around us in our communities don’t need putting down, they need lifting up! lets guarantee living wages and social security to ensure people don’t need to use foodbanks. And let’s now properly fund the local facilities that make our community: the schools, the homes, the doctors the hospitals, the police station, the home care, the children’s centres, the youth clubs affording vital rite of passage for our youth of today, the specialist units for the those with special need who are indeed special and most cherished ones in our community. Get brexit done? There Is no magic wand to instantly unite a divided nation. No quick fix to the problems the Tory’s have allowed to fester in our run down communities throughout this lost decade, to pay for this will require hard work, to put it right will require hard work over time. To climb these mountains will take us one step at a time. But to start with, let’s at least point our great country in the right direction, and set off with the promise: that we leave no one behind. We will steer the country in the right direction. We will leave no one behind.
Exciting times for Labour supporters. Corbyn could be in Downing Street within 40 hours.
I think we're still quite far from that. A hung parliament with the tories at or above ~ 314 seats would be guaranteed not to result in Corbyn as PM, as neither the DUP nor the tories would support him. A bit below that and he'd first need to get support from the libdems.
While I believe there's a small chance of a hung parliament at the moment, a hung parliament with the tories below 314 seems extremely unlikely to me.
That people like to hear optimistic predictions that tell them how great they are.
Scotland is pretty unpredictable and SLAB outperformed expectations last time and it seems they might well dos so again, but given where they started out it would take something epochal to be 'back'. Being in second place would be a start.
Exciting times for Labour supporters. Corbyn could be in Downing Street within 40 hours.
I think we're still quite far from that. A hung parliament with the tories at or above ~ 314 seats would be guaranteed not to result in Corbyn as PM, as neither the DUP nor the tories would support him. A bit below that and he'd first need to get support from the libdems.
While I believe there's a small chance of a hung parliament at the moment, a hung parliament with the tories below 314 seems extremely unlikely to me.
Just watch we’ll get Tories at 322 or something and the SF abstentions will make the difference.
The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls.
It's not been brilliant, but it's been pretty good.
MUCH better than 2017. The problem is they got tired in the last few days and when Boyfloorgate happened they panicked.
The one single stand out ad of the entire campaign was theirs. Boris' Love Actually spoof.
That's of little importance. What really matters is whether they are getting targeted messages out to specific segments of the voting population in the right seats (as they did very well in 2015) - for example, so that White Van Man in a Midlands marginal gets to hear how badly he'll be hit by Labour's plans for tax changes. I don't know the answer to that question.
They've been putting out lots of Facebook advertising under the cover of "independent" groups. Not sure how well targeted it has been though. The last one I saw was to remind me of all the extra protection to tenants like me that Labour was offering (under the guise of it being a cataclysmic attack on landlords).
Since there are more tenants than landlords that sort of scattergun advertising could backfire.
Exciting times for Labour supporters. Corbyn could be in Downing Street within 40 hours.
I doubt he has a chance of a win unambiguous enough to have that happen. Unless Lab + SNP = a majority it might take a few days before it is confirmed the LDs will play ball.
The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls.
It's not been brilliant, but it's been pretty good.
MUCH better than 2017. The problem is they got tired in the last few days and when Boyfloorgate happened they panicked.
The one single stand out ad of the entire campaign was theirs. Boris' Love Actually spoof.
They stole Love Actually from a Labour MP. It wasn’t their idea.
Boris one was subtler - the Labour one had the voter replace a 'Vote Conservative' poster with a 'Vote Labour' one - in Boris video the viewer was left to make up their own mind.
After my first twitch at the late Labour surge, which I felt in my waters before the pollsters realised, I sense a VERY late swing back to the Tories, as voters confront the REALITY of a Jew-hating Marxist government
I had lunch with a hardcore Labour friend (who hates Corbyn) today. He said that in the polling booth he will probably grimace and reluctantly vote Labour, but he also said that his parents who are Tories just LOVE Boris and they will eagerly vote Boris.
It is reluctance versus eagerness. Eagerness wins, for Boris. Probably a small majority of 20-30 as I predicted at the beginning of this entertaining shitshow.
Johnson will get his majority because his and Cumming's strategy from August of embracing and eliminating the Brexit Party will pay off. It is nearly the only reason he will get his majority, but it will work. People's views of Corbyn and Johnson are almost irrelevant. Or put another way, hatred of the other is a wash.
Didn’t he say that at a rally in Scotland too? They’re fishing in the same pond as the SNP unlike the Tories so as long as Sturgeon is strong it’s hard to see a comeback
One thing is certain, Corbynonomics isn't going anywhere....
Having been adopted by the government, what more is there for it to achieve?
I haven't noticed train nationalizations by Boris.
In fact the only things I remember from the Conservative campaign is:
Get Brexit Done, We will close your favourite TV station, and Don't take the money from Anti-Semites.
The only thing I remember from Labour's campaign is:
We will give you loads of lovely Money.
No. There’s been hope. Rather than a dirty tricks campaign there has been positivity.
What this country needs is to start getting what matters, right. And what matters most is how we live in our communities. Instead of talk about ”putting down like unwanted dogs“ those people along our street who need to use foodbanks, and yes a Tory Candidate actually did say this, how the mask has been slipping this campaign, families and friends around us in our communities don’t need putting down, they need lifting up! lets guarantee living wages and social security to ensure people don’t need to use foodbanks. And let’s now properly fund the local facilities that make our community: the schools, the homes, the doctors the hospitals, the police station, the home care, the children’s centres, the youth clubs affording vital rite of passage for our youth of today, the specialist units for the those with special need who are indeed special and most cherished ones in our community.
There Is no magic wand to instantly unite a divided nation. No quick fix to the problems the Tory’s have allowed to fester in our run down communities throughout this lost decade, to pay for this will require hard work, to put it right will require hard work over time. To climb these mountains will take us one step at a time. But to start with, let’s at least point our great country in the right direction, and set off with the promise: that we leave no one behind. We will steer the country in the right direction. We will leave no one behind.
OK, if you strip out the hateful anti-Tory bile....
Now explain how bunging £58bn to a spectacularly undeserving but noisome cause is a step in the right direction which leaves no-one behind?
Whatever the actual lead is on the day - I'm guessing between 5-7% - the general feel of the parties to me seems to be that the Tories are not at all confident, even pessimistic, and Labour are nervous but putting on a braver face.
Why are labour nervous, what have they got to lose
Quite a lot, particularly in terms of any internal battles. Sub 200 and it's a horrendous night, the leadership has no place to hide, the party would have some very tough questions to ask itself. 250 and its not great, certainly, but they will have retained large chunks of the red wall, and can think that 'one more heave' may do it next time, it keeps the Corbynite wing strong even though it will be a loss.
I think we can safely say Labour sub-200 is not going to happen. We are talking a Boris majority of 30 a worst for Labour, one at 10-15 perhaps even likelier, so more than enough for the Corbynistas to keep the red flag flying.
Corbyn's ilk are here to stay. The only question now is will the man himself be - on Friday evening - having coalition talks with Nicola, or sat by the fire considering whether to pass on the baton.
Is it? I distinctly remember a survation poll being within 1 or 2%. Not had any of those.
We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority
there were two polls in 2017 which were that close Qriously had a Labour 2% lead and Survation with a Tory 1% lead
And what did Qriously say today....?
13% Tory lead
Exactly. Blues chill. Breathe.
Given where Boris and Jezza have been, I don't think they believe it is 13% lead.
Weird story on R5 driving home. Apparently since the beginning of December Boris has been in Tory held seats 2:1. Corbyn has been in opposition held seats ( mainly Tory) 2:1. Given the polling shouldn’t it have been the reverse?
This Tory campaign has been better than 2017 but it did seem excessively focused on just 9 seats more from an early stage.
That's what I noticed too. Corbyn's MRP has Labour leading the Consevatives, he has shifted his campaogn to Conservative marginals up to the 3% swing to Labour.
What is in Corbyn’s MRP? What would he be doing? Assuming very high youth turnout?
Just looking inside the polls that ask for past vote the Conservative lead should be just 2% because they are not getting enough 2017 LAB voters to increase their lead, they never did, from the start of the campaign it's single digits.
But weighting by past vote didn't work in 2015 or 2017, if it did Milliband and May would have won easily.
I thought YouGov had far more 2017 Lab voting Con than 2017 Con voting Lab.
If above correct, Con lead must surely increase from 2017.
It doesn't, because the numbers are so small as to constitute a 1% swing which can easily be erased by voters too young to have voted in 2017.
Get Brexit done is clearly overplayed to give the impression that it will all go away, but perhaps I overestimate the public in thinking that most people do know that in reality only this phase will be done, and many regard that as sufficient progress - it's clearly done enough for opponents, hence fighting so hard to not be this much done.
Unfortunately most people are, I hate to say it, both ill informed and uneducated when it comes to anything technical, and Brexit certainly is technical.
My wife doesn't understand this. She often goes around saying things like, "But surely everyone understands the impact of the Prison Reform Act [1] on the state of prisons in the 1830s?" She simply can't comprehend that most people neither know, nor care to know about anything prior to when they were born. Her hairdresser said to her, after she said that she was going to Berlin on holiday, "Oh, I love Russia me!" My wife still doesn't get it. Slip of the tongue, she thinks.
Most people aren't idiots. But most people aren't interested. Johnson is saying 'Get Brexit Done' and he's saying he has a 'great deal'. As no one can deny that he does have a deal, they don't believe Jo Swinson, or Jeremy Corbyn when they say its a rubbish deal (Which I think it is). Sour grapes from sour losers, they think.
Johnson will get his majority tomorrow I'm afraid. Then he won't get Brexit done. And by next summer, the whole lot will be unravelling before his eyes. But he won't care. BEST RESULT SINCE 1987! I beat Major, Hague, Howard, Cameron and May! I'm a GENIUS!
[1] I've no idea if this is the right act my wife goes on about. Just proves my point further.
It was into 1.35 and falling fast with decent money just before the ComRes was revealed. Since then £300k has been matched as it has gone back to the resistance level of 1.40.
Exciting times for Labour supporters. Corbyn could be in Downing Street within 40 hours.
I think we're still quite far from that. A hung parliament with the tories at or above ~ 314 seats would be guaranteed not to result in Corbyn as PM, as neither the DUP nor the tories would support him. A bit below that and he'd first need to get support from the libdems.
While I believe there's a small chance of a hung parliament at the moment, a hung parliament with the tories below 314 seems extremely unlikely to me.
Just watch we’ll get Tories at 322 or something and the SF abstentions will make the difference.
That would be pretty funny. I assume there'd be huge pressure to make them turn up, although it would probably be for naught. Still, that'd be peak Brexit.
One thing is certain, Corbynonomics isn't going anywhere....
Having been adopted by the government, what more is there for it to achieve?
I haven't noticed train nationalizations by Boris.
In fact the only things I remember from the Conservative campaign is:
Get Brexit Done, We will close your favourite TV station, and Don't take the money from Anti-Semites.
The only thing I remember from Labour's campaign is:
We will give you loads of lovely Money.
No. There’s been hope. Rather than a dirty tricks campaign there has been positivity.
What this country needs is to start getting what matters, right. And what matters most is how we live in our communities. Instead of talk about ”putting down like unwanted dogs“ those people along our street who need to use foodbanks, and yes a Tory Candidate actually did say this, how the mask has been slipping this campaign, families and friends around us in our communities don’t need putting down, they need lifting up! lets guarantee living wages and social security to ensure people don’t need to use foodbanks. And let’s now properly fund the local facilities that make our community: the schools, the homes, the doctors the hospitals, the police station, the home care, the children’s centres, the youth clubs affording vital rite of passage for our youth of today, the specialist units for the those with special need who are indeed special and most cherished ones in our community.
There Is no magic wand to instantly unite a divided nation. No quick fix to the problems the Tory’s have allowed to fester in our run down communities throughout this lost decade, to pay for this will require hard work, to put it right will require hard work over time. To climb these mountains will take us one step at a time. But to start with, let’s at least point our great country in the right direction, and set off with the promise: that we leave no one behind. We will steer the country in the right direction. We will leave no one behind.
OK, if you strip out the hateful anti-Tory bile....
Now explain how bunging £58bn to a spectacularly undeserving but noisome cause is a step in the right direction which leaves no-one behind?
That was corbyn speaking today. What a stump speech. We haven’t heard anything like that from Boris, just gimmicks, dirty tricks units, not real oven baked politics
The WORST poll for the Tories has a knife edge between a hung parliament and a Tory maj. The BEST poll for the Tories has a Tory landslide. The average is a very solid Tory majority.
Meanwhile leader-rating figures show a decided preference for Boris over Corbyn
The MRP polls show a decent Tory majority. Postal votes - allegedly - indicate a strong Tory performance. Anecdotal evidence from MPs, canvassers, activists tell us that, at the very least, Labour are back-pedalling from 2017, and the public are much warier of Labour under Corbyn than they were.
Taken together this is quite a compelling picture.
Now, it is possible that ALL these polls and anecdotes are utterly wrong. But if you're a betting man, the chances of that are really quite low.
That people like to hear optimistic predictions that tell them how great they are.
Scotland is pretty unpredictable and SLAB outperformed expectations last time and it seems they might well dos so again, but given where they started out it would take something epochal to be 'back'. Being in second place would be a start.
Since the SNP has lost it's Conservative leg in 2017 it's been very vulnerable to losing it's Socialist leg.
A swing of just 3% from SNP to Labour is enough to wipeout the SNP from most of their seats.
One thing is certain, Corbynonomics isn't going anywhere....
Having been adopted by the government, what more is there for it to achieve?
I haven't noticed train nationalizations by Boris.
In fact the only things I remember from the Conservative campaign is:
Get Brexit Done, We will close your favourite TV station, and Don't take the money from Anti-Semites.
The only thing I remember from Labour's campaign is:
We will give you loads of lovely Money.
No. There’s been hope. Rather than a dirty tricks campaign there has been positivity.
What this country needs is to start getting what matters, right. And what matters most is how we live in our communities. Instead of talk about ”putting down like unwanted dogs“ those people along our street who need to use foodbanks, and yes a Tory Candidate actually did say this, how the mask has been slipping this campaign, families and friends around us in our communities don’t need putting down, they need lifting up! lets guarantee living wages and social security to ensure people don’t need to use foodbanks. And let’s now properly fund the local facilities that make our community: the schools, the homes, the doctors the hospitals, the police station, the home care, the children’s centres, the youth clubs affording vital rite of passage for our youth of today, the specialist units for the those with special need who are indeed special and most cherished ones in our community.
There Is no magic wand to instantly unite a divided nation. No quick fix to the problems the Tory’s have allowed to fester in our run down communities throughout this lost decade, to pay for this will require hard work, to put it right will require hard work over time. To climb these mountains will take us one step at a time. But to start with, let’s at least point our great country in the right direction, and set off with the promise: that we leave no one behind. We will steer the country in the right direction. We will leave no one behind.
OK, if you strip out the hateful anti-Tory bile....
Now explain how bunging £58bn to a spectacularly undeserving but noisome cause is a step in the right direction which leaves no-one behind?
That was corbyn speaking today. What a stump speech. We haven’t heard anything like that from Boris, just gimmicks, dirty tricks units, not real oven baked politics
So £58bn to the WASPIs isn't a gimmick? Is a real oven-baked policy? Are you completely mad? (And that's just taking one late addition to the laundry-list of lunacy).
The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls.
It's not been brilliant, but it's been pretty good.
MUCH better than 2017. The problem is they got tired in the last few days and when Boyfloorgate happened they panicked.
The one single stand out ad of the entire campaign was theirs. Boris' Love Actually spoof.
They stole Love Actually from a Labour MP. It wasn’t their idea.
See my other post. Lots of political campaigns have used the Love Actually Meme, and the meme itself is a parody! - of a Bob Dylan vid.
I think what annoys Boris-haters is that Boris' team did it so professionally. It was annoyingly good enough to make lefties retweet it angrily, it was annoyingly smart enough to engage Tory loyalists. Making it go viral. Plus, lovers of the movie shared it endlessly.
It will be seen as a model of its kind for future campaigns. It even got salience in the US, Oz and European media.
Sometimes you really do come out with a load of bobbins.....
Whatever the actual lead is on the day - I'm guessing between 5-7% - the general feel of the parties to me seems to be that the Tories are not at all confident, even pessimistic, and Labour are nervous but putting on a braver face.
Why are labour nervous, what have they got to lose
Quite a lot, particularly in terms of any internal battles. Sub 200 and it's a horrendous night, the leadership has no place to hide, the party would have some very tough questions to ask itself. 250 and its not great, certainly, but they will have retained large chunks of the red wall, and can think that 'one more heave' may do it next time, it keeps the Corbynite wing strong even though it will be a loss.
I think we can safely say Labour sub-200 is not going to happen. We are talking a Boris majority of 30 a worst for Labour, one at 10-15 perhaps even likelier, so more than enough for the Corbynistas to keep the red flag flying.
Corbyn's ilk are here to stay. The only question now is will the man himself be - on Friday evening - having coalition talks with Nicola, or sat by the fire considering whether to pass on the baton.
He has had his chance twice, and blown it twice. Third time lucky?
There is a spreadsheet that shows a lot of the big increases are places like Hackney i.e. they will need a second set of scales to weigh the votes and student areas. There are about 20-30 seats up that are marginals.
That people like to hear optimistic predictions that tell them how great they are.
Scotland is pretty unpredictable and SLAB outperformed expectations last time and it seems they might well dos so again, but given where they started out it would take something epochal to be 'back'. Being in second place would be a start.
Since the SNP has lost it's Conservative leg in 2017 it's been very vulnerable to losing it's Socialist leg.
A swing of just 3% from SNP to Labour is enough to wipeout the SNP from most of their seats.
The swing will be from Labour to SNP And it will be more than 3%.
The WORST poll for the Tories has a knife edge between a hung parliament and a Tory maj. The BEST poll for the Tories has a Tory landslide. The average is a very solid Tory majority.
Meanwhile leader-rating figures show a decided preference for Boris over Corbyn
The MRP polls show a decent Tory majority. Postal votes - allegedly - indicate a strong Tory performance. Anecdotal evidence from MPs, canvassers, activists tell us that, at the very least, Labour are back-pedalling from 2017, and the public are much warier of Labour under Corbyn than they were.
Taken together this is quite a compelling picture.
Now, it is possible that ALL these polls and anecdotes are utterly wrong. But if you're a betting man, the chances of that are really quite low.
This is all great and sensible, Byronic, but in 10 minutes when Survation also show a tightening race.......
That people like to hear optimistic predictions that tell them how great they are.
Scotland is pretty unpredictable and SLAB outperformed expectations last time and it seems they might well dos so again, but given where they started out it would take something epochal to be 'back'. Being in second place would be a start.
Since the SNP has lost it's Conservative leg in 2017 it's been very vulnerable to losing it's Socialist leg.
A swing of just 3% from SNP to Labour is enough to wipeout the SNP from most of their seats.
I’ll be nice to Jeremy. He can take as many SNP seats as he wants.
Is the error margin, whilst unquoted, still mathematically +/- 3%?
No. The +/- 3% quoted figure is a hangover that just isn't bloody dying. To explain.
The margin of error for a random sample of sufficient size from a representative sample frame is approx 3%. But polling in the UK doesn't use random sampling (it uses quota sampling) and doesn't sample from a representative sample frame (it uses self-selecting groups, these days usually in an online panel). The pollsters weight this to make it look like a proper sample and usually this works but it destroys the theory.
That lack of theoretical justification was dealt differently in the US. US statisticians are very prim and earnest and had a polite debate about nonrepresentative sampling. But UK pollsters get drunk and fall over, and for years this deficit was swept under the carpet: For example, Peter Kellner in his guide to journalists still used the 3% as a rule-of-thumb and one pollster had the cheek to say "as if it were a random sample" even tho they knew damn well it wasn't.
The BPC are an uneasy alliance between academics and pollsters, and for years the BPC were getting increasingly snotty about this problem. Eventually following the House of Lords enquiry they snapped and recommended that BPC members say in the poll release what the margin of error is for that poll. So now if you want to know the margin of error for a given poll, look in the small print.
The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls.
It's not been brilliant, but it's been pretty good.
MUCH better than 2017. The problem is they got tired in the last few days and when Boyfloorgate happened they panicked.
The one single stand out ad of the entire campaign was theirs. Boris' Love Actually spoof.
They stole Love Actually from a Labour MP. It wasn’t their idea.
See my other post. Lots of political campaigns have used the Love Actually Meme, and the meme itself is a parody! - of a Bob Dylan vid.
I think what annoys Boris-haters is that Boris' team did it so professionally. It was annoyingly good enough to make lefties retweet it angrily, it was annoyingly smart enough to engage Tory loyalists. Making it go viral. Plus, lovers of the movie shared it endlessly.
It will be seen as a model of its kind for future campaigns. It even got salience in the US, Oz and European media.
Sometimes you really do come out with a load of bobbins.....
I'm not opinionating, it is true.
These days the essence of an ad is making it viral and shareable. That was the most viral and shareable ad of the campaign, by a mile.
It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.
42% of Labour Leavers preferring the Conservatives is not good news for Labour.
It isn't good news for Labour. But no-one expects Labour to lead the next government. The question is whether the Conservatives get an absolute majority. The question doesn't necessarily match that situation. It's possible to vote Labour without really expecting them to win.
Sure, but polls are quite consistent that more people have switched Lab to Con since 2017 than the other way around.
OTOH and moving slightly from my original point, CON + UKIP or BP is almost exactly the same as 2017, while Lab+LD is also the same as 2017. The only thing that matters in this election and the reason why the Tories will get their majority is that they have been more effective at squeezing the BP vote than Labour squeezing the Lib Dems.
I’d advise Tory supporters in here to have a drink and chill . This just doesn’t feel like 2017 . All the fundamentals support a Tory majority .
1 poll and the YouGov MRP, and Boris making gaffes, and Tories lacking policy substance to get a message out in the campaign, and where Boris has been campaigning, and...
Ok, its hardly definitive reason for a Tory panic. But it's not nothing.
Is it? I distinctly remember a survation poll being within 1 or 2%. Not had any of those.
We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority
there were two polls in 2017 which were that close Qriously had a Labour 2% lead and Survation with a Tory 1% lead
And what did Qriously say today....?
13% Tory lead
Exactly. Blues chill. Breathe.
Given where Boris and Jezza have been, I don't think they believe it is 13% lead.
Weird story on R5 driving home. Apparently since the beginning of December Boris has been in Tory held seats 2:1. Corbyn has been in opposition held seats ( mainly Tory) 2:1. Given the polling shouldn’t it have been the reverse?
This Tory campaign has been better than 2017 but it did seem excessively focused on just 9 seats more from an early stage.
The WORST poll for the Tories has a knife edge between a hung parliament and a Tory maj. The BEST poll for the Tories has a Tory landslide. The average is a very solid Tory majority.
Meanwhile leader-rating figures show a decided preference for Boris over Corbyn
The MRP polls show a decent Tory majority. Postal votes - allegedly - indicate a strong Tory performance. Anecdotal evidence from MPs, canvassers, activists tell us that, at the very least, Labour are back-pedalling from 2017, and the public are much warier of Labour under Corbyn than they were.
Taken together this is quite a compelling picture.
Now, it is possible that ALL these polls and anecdotes are utterly wrong. But if you're a betting man, the chances of that are really quite low.
This is all great and sensible, Byronic, but in 10 minutes when Survation also show a tightening race.......
I will only worry if Survation shows a lead under 7
That people like to hear optimistic predictions that tell them how great they are.
Scotland is pretty unpredictable and SLAB outperformed expectations last time and it seems they might well dos so again, but given where they started out it would take something epochal to be 'back'. Being in second place would be a start.
Since the SNP has lost it's Conservative leg in 2017 it's been very vulnerable to losing it's Socialist leg.
A swing of just 3% from SNP to Labour is enough to wipeout the SNP from most of their seats.
The swing will be from Labour to SNP And it will be more than 3%.
If Labour are apporaching their 2017 levels nationally then just like the Conservatives they should be approaching their 2017 levels in Scotland too.
If both of them are high it means the SNP and other 3rd parties will be down.
That people like to hear optimistic predictions that tell them how great they are.
Scotland is pretty unpredictable and SLAB outperformed expectations last time and it seems they might well dos so again, but given where they started out it would take something epochal to be 'back'. Being in second place would be a start.
Since the SNP has lost it's Conservative leg in 2017 it's been very vulnerable to losing it's Socialist leg.
A swing of just 3% from SNP to Labour is enough to wipeout the SNP from most of their seats.
I’ll be nice to Jeremy. He can take as many SNP seats as he wants.
I wouldn't be optimistic, they haven't been hitting most seats with the ground campaign.
The WORST poll for the Tories has a knife edge between a hung parliament and a Tory maj. The BEST poll for the Tories has a Tory landslide. The average is a very solid Tory majority.
Meanwhile leader-rating figures show a decided preference for Boris over Corbyn
The MRP polls show a decent Tory majority. Postal votes - allegedly - indicate a strong Tory performance. Anecdotal evidence from MPs, canvassers, activists tell us that, at the very least, Labour are back-pedalling from 2017, and the public are much warier of Labour under Corbyn than they were.
Taken together this is quite a compelling picture.
Now, it is possible that ALL these polls and anecdotes are utterly wrong. But if you're a betting man, the chances of that are really quite low.
This is all great and sensible, Byronic, but in 10 minutes when Survation also show a tightening race.......
I will only worry if Survation shows a lead under 7
*waits, anxiously*
Why change a habit of a lifetime? Worrying is your metier.
The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls.
It's not been brilliant, but it's been pretty good. The one single stand out ad of the entire campaign was theirs. Boris' Love Actually spoof.
I think what annoys Boris-haters is that Boris' team did it so professionally. It was annoyingly good enough to make lefties retweet it angrily, it was annoyingly smart enough to engage Tory loyalists. Making it go viral. Plus, lovers of the movie shared it endlessly.
Sometimes you really do come out with a load of bobbins.....
No worries Whilst Tory campaign thought it effective idea doing that bit of cheese. Corbyn has gone into labour leave territory saying this: Leave no one behind, heal the division not exploit it Yes a momentous decision will be made by the British people on December twelfth. Do you want to take the leap into the unknown with Boris bad brexit to make your life better? Or do you want to try this manifesto first? A manifesto of much needed reform. A manifesto to transform, that will give oomph to the economy, retrain and reskill Britain's workforce and get Britain fit for the fight of 21st Century. An inclusive manifesto that will leave no one behind. A stepping stone in the right direction, between what has been wrong in this Tory decade and a better future in the next decade. Or do you want to stick with the conservatives, support Boris' bad Brexit and our country remain unprepared for what is to come? The Brexit deal that divides the United Kingdom, are we ready for that? The Bad Brexit deal that divides us forever to come. From the most untrustworthy leader comes the promise Brexit will be done and dusted and out your lives in January. Does anyone actually believe that? The truth, in January comes the hard right agenda on you and your families for the next five years that is hiding behind the lie Brexit will be done and dusted in January. Yes there is important decision to be made by the British people on December twelfth. An important moment for you, your family, your community, your country. But make your mind up and use your vote knowing, if you go with labours inclusive approach and you don’t like it, if despite our efforts and intent to help the many left behind for so long we fail you, you will get a chance to change that government. If the nation goes with Boris and his bad Brexit and you don’t like it, there will be no going back. This is the momentous choice before you on December 12th. Make sure you are part of it. If you only vote once in your life, get out and vote this time.
The WORST poll for the Tories has a knife edge between a hung parliament and a Tory maj. The BEST poll for the Tories has a Tory landslide. The average is a very solid Tory majority.
Meanwhile leader-rating figures show a decided preference for Boris over Corbyn
The MRP polls show a decent Tory majority. Postal votes - allegedly - indicate a strong Tory performance. Anecdotal evidence from MPs, canvassers, activists tell us that, at the very least, Labour are back-pedalling from 2017, and the public are much warier of Labour under Corbyn than they were.
Taken together this is quite a compelling picture.
Now, it is possible that ALL these polls and anecdotes are utterly wrong. But if you're a betting man, the chances of that are really quite low.
This is all great and sensible, Byronic, but in 10 minutes when Survation also show a tightening race.......
I will only worry if Survation shows a lead under 7
*waits, anxiously*
It’s not going to happen . You’re worrying over nothing .
That people like to hear optimistic predictions that tell them how great they are.
Scotland is pretty unpredictable and SLAB outperformed expectations last time and it seems they might well dos so again, but given where they started out it would take something epochal to be 'back'. Being in second place would be a start.
Since the SNP has lost it's Conservative leg in 2017 it's been very vulnerable to losing it's Socialist leg.
A swing of just 3% from SNP to Labour is enough to wipeout the SNP from most of their seats.
The swing will be from Labour to SNP And it will be more than 3%.
If Labour are apporaching their 2017 levels nationally then just like the Conservatives they should be approaching their 2017 levels in Scotland too.
If both of them are high it means the SNP and other 3rd parties will be down.
But Labour are still well short of 2017. And their distribution shows that they are doing better in the south. Scotland is a disaster area for them.
Comments
But I can't find any other explanation as to why Corbyn is capaigning almost exclusively in these Conservative marginals these past few days.
What this country needs is to start getting what matters, right. And what matters most is how we live in our communities.
Instead of talk about ”putting down like unwanted dogs“ those people along our street who need to use foodbanks, and yes a Tory Candidate actually did say this, how the mask has been slipping this campaign,
families and friends around us in our communities don’t need putting down, they need lifting up!
lets guarantee living wages and social security to ensure people don’t need to use foodbanks. And let’s now properly fund the local facilities that make our community: the schools, the homes, the doctors the hospitals, the police station, the home care, the children’s centres, the youth clubs affording vital rite of passage for our youth of today, the specialist units for the those with special need who are indeed special and most cherished ones in our community.
Get brexit done?
There Is no magic wand to instantly unite a divided nation. No quick fix to the problems the Tory’s have allowed to fester in our run down communities throughout this lost decade, to pay for this will require hard work, to put it right will require hard work over time. To climb these mountains will take us one step at a time. But to start with, let’s at least point our great country in the right direction, and set off with the promise: that we leave no one behind. We will steer the country in the right direction. We will leave no one behind.
While I believe there's a small chance of a hung parliament at the moment, a hung parliament with the tories below 314 seems extremely unlikely to me.
Scotland is pretty unpredictable and SLAB outperformed expectations last time and it seems they might well dos so again, but given where they started out it would take something epochal to be 'back'. Being in second place would be a start.
Since there are more tenants than landlords that sort of scattergun advertising could backfire.
See you all on Sunday - have fun!
Now explain how bunging £58bn to a spectacularly undeserving but noisome cause is a step in the right direction which leaves no-one behind?
Corbyn's ilk are here to stay. The only question now is will the man himself be - on Friday evening - having coalition talks with Nicola, or sat by the fire considering whether to pass on the baton.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
My wife doesn't understand this. She often goes around saying things like, "But surely everyone understands the impact of the Prison Reform Act [1] on the state of prisons in the 1830s?" She simply can't comprehend that most people neither know, nor care to know about anything prior to when they were born. Her hairdresser said to her, after she said that she was going to Berlin on holiday, "Oh, I love Russia me!"
My wife still doesn't get it. Slip of the tongue, she thinks.
Most people aren't idiots. But most people aren't interested. Johnson is saying 'Get Brexit Done' and he's saying he has a 'great deal'. As no one can deny that he does have a deal, they don't believe Jo Swinson, or Jeremy Corbyn when they say its a rubbish deal (Which I think it is). Sour grapes from sour losers, they think.
Johnson will get his majority tomorrow I'm afraid. Then he won't get Brexit done. And by next summer, the whole lot will be unravelling before his eyes. But he won't care. BEST RESULT SINCE 1987! I beat Major, Hague, Howard, Cameron and May! I'm a GENIUS!
[1] I've no idea if this is the right act my wife goes on about. Just proves my point further.
Is their card? Surprise seat gains in Scotland?
Calm down!
The WORST poll for the Tories has a knife edge between a hung parliament and a Tory maj. The BEST poll for the Tories has a Tory landslide. The average is a very solid Tory majority.
Meanwhile leader-rating figures show a decided preference for Boris over Corbyn
The MRP polls show a decent Tory majority. Postal votes - allegedly - indicate a strong Tory performance. Anecdotal evidence from MPs, canvassers, activists tell us that, at the very least, Labour are back-pedalling from 2017, and the public are much warier of Labour under Corbyn than they were.
Taken together this is quite a compelling picture.
Now, it is possible that ALL these polls and anecdotes are utterly wrong. But if you're a betting man, the chances of that are really quite low.
A swing of just 3% from SNP to Labour is enough to wipeout the SNP from most of their seats.
I’d advise Tory supporters in here to have a drink and chill . This just doesn’t feel like 2017 . All the fundamentals support a Tory majority .
And it will be more than 3%.
LAB 30
CON 18
SNP 6
LD 5
Not sure why. Because Brexit is such a clusterfuck? But even Sturgeon is backing away from the issue, and is now talking about devomax
The margin of error for a random sample of sufficient size from a representative sample frame is approx 3%. But polling in the UK doesn't use random sampling (it uses quota sampling) and doesn't sample from a representative sample frame (it uses self-selecting groups, these days usually in an online panel). The pollsters weight this to make it look like a proper sample and usually this works but it destroys the theory.
That lack of theoretical justification was dealt differently in the US. US statisticians are very prim and earnest and had a polite debate about nonrepresentative sampling. But UK pollsters get drunk and fall over, and for years this deficit was swept under the carpet: For example, Peter Kellner in his guide to journalists still used the 3% as a rule-of-thumb and one pollster had the cheek to say "as if it were a random sample" even tho they knew damn well it wasn't.
The BPC are an uneasy alliance between academics and pollsters, and for years the BPC were getting increasingly snotty about this problem. Eventually following the House of Lords enquiry they snapped and recommended that BPC members say in the poll release what the margin of error is for that poll. So now if you want to know the margin of error for a given poll, look in the small print.
But it can wait until we know the result of the GE.
These days the essence of an ad is making it viral and shareable. That was the most viral and shareable ad of the campaign, by a mile.
Job done.
Ok, its hardly definitive reason for a Tory panic. But it's not nothing.
*waits, anxiously*
If both of them are high it means the SNP and other 3rd parties will be down.
A very confident party
Whilst Tory campaign thought it effective idea doing that bit of cheese. Corbyn has gone into labour leave territory saying this: Leave no one behind, heal the division not exploit it
Yes a momentous decision will be made by the British people on December twelfth.
Do you want to take the leap into the unknown with Boris bad brexit to make your life better? Or do you want to try this manifesto first? A manifesto of much needed reform. A manifesto to transform, that will give oomph to the economy, retrain and reskill Britain's workforce and get Britain fit for the fight of 21st Century. An inclusive manifesto that will leave no one behind. A stepping stone in the right direction, between what has been wrong in this Tory decade and a better future in the next decade.
Or do you want to stick with the conservatives, support Boris' bad Brexit and our country remain unprepared for what is to come? The Brexit deal that divides the United Kingdom, are we ready for that? The Bad Brexit deal that divides us forever to come.
From the most untrustworthy leader comes the promise Brexit will be done and dusted and out your lives in January. Does anyone actually believe that? The truth, in January comes the hard right agenda on you and your families for the next five years that is hiding behind the lie Brexit will be done and dusted in January.
Yes there is important decision to be made by the British people on December twelfth. An important moment for you, your family, your community, your country.
But make your mind up and use your vote knowing, if you go with labours inclusive approach and you don’t like it, if despite our efforts and intent to help the many left behind for so long we fail you, you will get a chance to change that government. If the nation goes with Boris and his bad Brexit and you don’t like it, there will be no going back. This is the momentous choice before you on December 12th. Make sure you are part of it. If you only vote once in your life, get out and vote this time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAhF8tPqafQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2af69xt0VKE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGxjIBEZvx0
My go...
Con 340 plus
Lab 240 plus
LD's 20 plus
SNP 42 plus