I've not moved on from poetry since my schooldays, in that I cannot tell what is meant to be generally thought of as a 'good' example of it or not. I feel the same way about things like various gymnastics events, such as the Pommell Horse, in that it all seems very impressive but I cannot tell which is better than another.
Good poetry is poetry you enjoy. Different people have different good poets: for some people there are none.
Boom, Boom. Labour would still hope to outperform the polls a little (especially as the average will be higher than this 5%), like last time, but that would probably be enough to cobble some anti-tory majority together.
The red wall has reinforced itself, why must it tease the Tories so?
Why do celebrities feel that they are adding anything or are honour bound to share their political views? The first series of Alan Partridge was hilarious, so are The Trip series'... do I feel the need to know what he thinks about politics on the News as well? Why?
Its not that different to us posting on here, celebs just happens to have a bigger audience.
Why doesn’t he post on here then? I don’t see why being talented in his job should elevate his views in a completely unrelated field to the point of him being on prime time tv talking about them. He certainly isn’t ‘honour bound’ to tell us all about them as he claims
Maybe he does? Maybe he hasnt heard of the site? Maybe he is anti-betting? Ive really no idea.
Being talented as an actor, sportsperson or musician allows someone to create a brand through which they can sell overpriced clothes, books, dvds and also political ideas, its just part of modern life. I agree he is not honour bound to share his view but he is just as entitled to share them as we are.
Not sure why you want to argue with me. You are agreeing with what I said.
The books and dvds, and to an extent the clothes, that celebs sell on the back of their fame are usually related to their talent. If Coogan made a dvd or wrote a book about politics, I doubt it would sell as well as one of his comedy
The Tories will be fuming at LK as well - it just panics Labour voters into turning out tomorrow. She really should have been more careful. And people shouldn't have been leaking to her.
Bragging (at being in the know), not leaking.
Didn't a Labour candidate in Bristol get a police caution for similar naughtiness?
I've not moved on from poetry since my schooldays, in that I cannot tell what is meant to be generally thought of as a 'good' example of it or not. I feel the same way about things like various gymnastics events, such as the Pommell Horse, in that it all seems very impressive but I cannot tell which is better than another.
Good poetry is poetry you enjoy. Different people have different good poets: for some people there are none.
Sure, but there are still generally acclaimed people in any art form who, though not for everyone, critical consensus says is good.
It seems quite reasonable to me that the exit poll could be wrong if these seats in the North are as close as people say
The exit poll can be statistically correct but produce an outcome completely different from the actual result. in a close election the Tories getting 315 seats will be a compeltely different thing to them getting 330 seats. both of which could be well within the Margin of error.
What’s the lowest lead we’ve had this evening please?
Nine.
Statistically we should expect at least one that is small, say 5-6%.
I don't buy the doom-laden predictions (from the Tory point of view) which state that they need something like a 7pt lead to scrape a majority. The last election, fought on the same boundaries, saw Theresa May short of an absolute majority by only nine seats based on a 2.4pt margin over Labour. A 4% lead on polling day ought to be enough for Johnson to at least scrape home.
The polls published so far this evening have been encouraging from the Conservative perspective. Whilst it's still possible for them to fall right back into Hung Parliament territory or to win by a landslide, I think there's every reason to suppose that the eventual outcome will be somewhere in between the two.
I remain confident that there will be a Tory majority of some sort at the conclusion of this election. If asked to define my confidence numerically, I'd estimate the likelihood thereof at around 80-90%.
Fully agreed. The only thing pointing towards a 6-7% lead being required for a majority is Yougov's MRP, but I'm sceptical about how the vote is distributed (they have the tories making bigger gains in some heavily remain ultra-safe labour seats than in most heavily remain seats for instance, with the labour vote being extremely efficient in comparison) and they do have a pretty poor track record on actually predicting seats.
They got 2017 right mainly because they were very close to the actual national voteshare (4% instead of 2.5%), but in terms of seats it was pretty bad - they predicted only 303 tory seats on that lead instead of 317, so on a 2.5% lead their model would have probably been between 20 and 30 seats short.
1) Brexit has damaged the Tories economic prowess badly, they have been so single minded over enacting the policy they have sacrificed the high ground almost completely over fiscal pridence which has allowed Labour to thrive with their economic crankery. The checks and balances between the two lead parties over government spending etc has now gone, which in my opinion is a very long term worry.
2) Anti-Semitism has damaged Labours "progessive" credentials as badly as the above, allowing racist crankery to rear its ugly head again. By embracing a culture war based view of race they have made the subject frictional where understanding was growing year on year. Without the checks and balances here we have lost the balance we were establishing....again a long term worry.
Plus after TIG and then the likely LibDem disappointment, the prospect of either realignment or breakthrough and a change to our political system looks postponed for another generation.
There was an old man of the left, Whose popularity gave him some heft, He taxed the few, And repelled the Jew, And so the opposition was cleft.
'Poets' in the loosest possible use of the term. There are only 10 proper poets in the entire country.
How on earth do you define 'proper poets'?
Ones that can actually write.
One of the finest poets around today actually contributes to this site.
Who?!
Thank you 😌 [ahem] Mighty I stand in rampaging light March morning on Aventine, Thyrsus in hand, the blossom bright, Leaves once again upon my vine. Soft hands hold the honey soaked thyrsus, A robe gay with barbaric gold. Smooth brow, with ivy's clustering berries, A wreathe binding myrrh-scented tresses. I am waiting. Absorbed in sweet thoughts, Of rich-haired Nymphai dwelling the dells of Nysa In their sweet-smelling caves, Beckoned from familiar sober manner By the overflowing and intoxicating power of nature. The mad Nymphai arrive to a beat, Dancing through groves with lightly leaping feet, Their heads thrown backwards, dishevelled hair, Sacred fawnskin flail at their loins, In their hands, swords and serpents, Staffs entwined with ivy, headed with pine-cone. They come again to the rite rejoice, Will dismember me now And devour - Eat this body, the flesh my spirit inhabits, Drink a toast with my deific blood, Thankfulness for the fruit that banishes despair. Nourished with blood and body, They grow into my likeness, A temple to my glory, great Becomes the mystery of our cult.
Hear me Death in your empire unconfined, Extending to mortal tribes of every kind. On thee the portion of our time depends, Where your absence lengthens life, Your presence life ends.
But a Soul divine and immortal, So doomed to live the grievous circle, Will rise again, yes, Rise again behind brief rest, will you my dust. Immortal life, Immortal life, I rise again where I am sown, This spring on Aventine, Leaves once again upon my vine.
Wow! Check out what LauraK has been saying about postal voting, as quoted in the Guardian, then go straight back to your online accounts! Dynamite!
Except it’s crap. Even if it turns out to be true.
If it is true she might get a visit from Mr Plod!
I chucked in an official complaint to the BBC, and asked for a formal response. It’ll provide a bit of interest in the fallow post-election period, perhaps. I don’t care at all about the PVs (except that people circulating such nonsense is a pet hate of mine, as you may have noticed) but thought she was very poor yesterday putting out that story about the non-assault without bothering to do any checking whatsoever.
wonder if betfair could have pressure against a Tory majority from people hedging their wealth
I'm down 2k Tory majority, up 4.4k NOM for this reason
Well I for one have taken out serious insurance.
Hoping to lose a lot of money on Betfair tomorrow night.
Though I won't lose as much as I won in 2017 when I did the same - Con lost majority so my bets won big time but they stayed in power - was unbelievable!
What an absolute cock Steve Coogan is. Tories should be sending that out on Facebook ASAP...see what they think of you.
I have to say all his sanctimonious stuff about phone hacking, when he used to be best mates with the NOTW celeb bod, used to phone him up on a Saturday night and got them to spike all sorts of stories about him.
He got pissed when Andy Coulson came in and said why do we keep not printing the stories about him?
I think phone hackees like Coogan and Grant, whilst never likely to be natural Tory voters, now think the politics is personal.
At this rate, 200k will have been matched on Betfair Majority overall market in less than 30mins.
What's going on?
Price came in quite significantly, then obviously after this 5% poll drifted way out, but it is the size of the money going in. Big lumps at a time, £10k, £20k etc. I can only presume city folk.
There was an old man of the left, Whose popularity gave him some heft, He taxed the few, And repelled the Jew, And so the opposition was cleft.
'Poets' in the loosest possible use of the term. There are only 10 proper poets in the entire country.
How on earth do you define 'proper poets'?
Ones that can actually write.
One of the finest poets around today actually contributes to this site.
Who?!
Thank you 😌 [ahem] Mighty I stand in rampaging light March morning on Aventine, Thyrsus in hand, the blossom bright, Leaves once again upon my vine. Soft hands hold the honey soaked thyrsus, A robe gay with barbaric gold. Smooth brow, with ivy's clustering berries, A wreathe binding myrrh-scented tresses. I am waiting. Absorbed in sweet thoughts, Of rich-haired Nymphai dwelling the dells of Nysa In their sweet-smelling caves, Beckoned from familiar sober manner By the overflowing and intoxicating power of nature. The mad Nymphai arrive to a beat, Dancing through groves with lightly leaping feet, Their heads thrown backwards, dishevelled hair, Sacred fawnskin flail at their loins, In their hands, swords and serpents, Staffs entwined with ivy, headed with pine-cone. They come again to the rite rejoice, Will dismember me now And devour - Eat this body, the flesh my spirit inhabits, Drink a toast with my deific blood, Thankfulness for the fruit that banishes despair. Nourished with blood and body, They grow into my likeness, A temple to my glory, great Becomes the mystery of our cult.
Hear me Death in your empire unconfined, Extending to mortal tribes of every kind. On thee the portion of our time depends, Where your absence lengthens life, Your presence life ends.
But a Soul divine and immortal, So doomed to live the grievous circle, Will rise again, yes, Rise again behind brief rest, will you my dust. Immortal life, Immortal life, I rise again where I am sown, This spring on Aventine, Leaves once again upon my vine.
Anecdata: talked to a lawyer, staunch Tory unionist, lives in a SNP seat w/ close-ish Tory challenger … voting tactically for SNP because of Remain. Surprised me anyway.
wonder if betfair could have pressure against a Tory majority from people hedging their wealth
I'm down 2k Tory majority, up 4.4k NOM for this reason
Well I for one have taken out serious insurance.
Hoping to lose a lot of money on Betfair tomorrow night.
Though I won't lose as much as I won in 2017 when I did the same - Con lost majority so my bets won big time but they stayed in power - was unbelievable!
Yes well I'd take a Tory landslide a big majority as first preference but would prefer the Tories on 324 rather than 326
Imagine it though, bong at 10 and Labour the largest party.
Is he saying that all polls are wrong, or just the ones with the larger Tory leads? If he "corrects" YouGov to 6%, surely that means the methodology for this poll is bang on?
Imagine it though, bong at 10 and Labour the largest party.
Is he saying that all polls are wrong, or just the ones with the larger Tory leads? If he "corrects" YouGov to 6%, surely that means the methodology for this poll is bang on?
Before people get too excited over the Savanta Comres poll , the fieldwork dates were the 9th and 10th of December.
That was at the height of phone gate . And so far it’s the only pollster to have done fieldwork only on those two days . That was before Ashworths idiocy .
We’d need to see another poll showing something similar or within the 5 to 7 range for later fieldwork .
There was an old man of the left, Whose popularity gave him some heft, He taxed the few, And repelled the Jew, And so the opposition was cleft.
'Poets' in the loosest possible use of the term. There are only 10 proper poets in the entire country.
How on earth do you define 'proper poets'?
Ones that can actually write.
One of the finest poets around today actually contributes to this site.
Who?!
Thank you 😌 [ahem] Mighty I stand in rampaging light March morning on Aventine, Thyrsus in hand, the blossom bright, Leaves once again upon my vine. Soft hands hold the honey soaked thyrsus, A robe gay with barbaric gold. Smooth brow, with ivy's clustering berries, A wreathe binding myrrh-scented tresses. I am waiting. Absorbed in sweet thoughts, Of rich-haired Nymphai dwelling the dells of Nysa In their sweet-smelling caves, Beckoned from familiar sober manner By the overflowing and intoxicating power of nature. The mad Nymphai arrive to a beat, Dancing through groves with lightly leaping feet, Their heads thrown backwards, dishevelled hair, Sacred fawnskin flail at their loins, In their hands, swords and serpents, Staffs entwined with ivy, headed with pine-cone. They come again to the rite rejoice, Will dismember me now And devour - Eat this body, the flesh my spirit inhabits, Drink a toast with my deific blood, Thankfulness for the fruit that banishes despair. Nourished with blood and body, They grow into my likeness, A temple to my glory, great Becomes the mystery of our cult.
Hear me Death in your empire unconfined, Extending to mortal tribes of every kind. On thee the portion of our time depends, Where your absence lengthens life, Your presence life ends.
But a Soul divine and immortal, So doomed to live the grievous circle, Will rise again, yes, Rise again behind brief rest, will you my dust. Immortal life, Immortal life, I rise again where I am sown, This spring on Aventine, Leaves once again upon my vine.
Is it? I distinctly remember a survation poll being within 1 or 2%. Not had any of those.
We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority
there were two polls in 2017 which were that close Qriously had a Labour 2% lead and Survation with a Tory 1% lead
And what did Qriously say today....?
13% Tory lead
Exactly. Blues chill. Breathe.
Given where Boris and Jezza have been, I don't think they believe it is 13% lead.
Weird story on R5 driving home. Apparently since the beginning of December Boris has been in Tory held seats 2:1. Corbyn has been in opposition held seats ( mainly Tory) 2:1. Given the polling shouldn’t it have been the reverse?
This Tory campaign has been better than 2017 but it did seem excessively focused on just 9 seats more from an early stage.
Before people get too excited over the Savanta Comres poll , the fieldwork dates were the 9th and 10th of December.
That was at the height of phone gate . And so far it’s the only pollster to have done fieldwork only on those two days . That was before Ashworths idiocy .
We’d need to see another poll showing something similar or within the 5 to 7 range for later fieldwork .
Yesterday & the day before? Readily dismissed as out of date 👍🏻
After my first twitch at the late Labour surge, which I felt in my waters before the pollsters realised, I sense a VERY late swing back to the Tories, as voters confront the REALITY of a Jew-hating Marxist government
I had lunch with a hardcore Labour friend (who hates Corbyn) today. He said that in the polling booth he will probably grimace and reluctantly vote Labour, but he also said that his parents who are Tories just LOVE Boris and they will eagerly vote Boris.
It is reluctance versus eagerness. Eagerness wins, for Boris. Probably a small majority of 20-30 as I predicted at the beginning of this entertaining shitshow.
Is it? I distinctly remember a survation poll being within 1 or 2%. Not had any of those.
We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority
there were two polls in 2017 which were that close Qriously had a Labour 2% lead and Survation with a Tory 1% lead
And what did Qriously say today....?
13% Tory lead
Exactly. Blues chill. Breathe.
Given where Boris and Jezza have been, I don't think they believe it is 13% lead.
Weird story on R5 driving home. Apparently since the beginning of December Boris has been in Tory held seats 2:1. Corbyn has been in opposition held seats ( mainly Tory) 2:1. Given the polling shouldn’t it have been the reverse?
This Tory campaign has been better than 2017 but it did seem excessively focused on just 9 seats more from an early stage.
Whatever the actual lead is on the day - I'm guessing between 5-7% - the general feel of the parties to me seems to be that the Tories are not at all confident, even pessimistic, and Labour are nervous but putting on a braver face.
No, Survation had a 1% Tory lead in its final 2017 poll, a 5% Tory lead with Comres is still a 1.5% swing to the Tories from Labour, on UNS that would see 17 Tory gains from Labour, more than double the 8 needed for a majority
Is it? I distinctly remember a survation poll being within 1 or 2%. Not had any of those.
We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority
there were two polls in 2017 which were that close Qriously had a Labour 2% lead and Survation with a Tory 1% lead
And what did Qriously say today....?
13% Tory lead
Exactly. Blues chill. Breathe.
Given where Boris and Jezza have been, I don't think they believe it is 13% lead.
Weird story on R5 driving home. Apparently since the beginning of December Boris has been in Tory held seats 2:1. Corbyn has been in opposition held seats ( mainly Tory) 2:1. Given the polling shouldn’t it have been the reverse?
This Tory campaign has been better than 2017 but it did seem excessively focused on just 9 seats more from an early stage.
There was talk earlier that leaders visits are now charged to the constituency, not the national campaign and so might not be as welcome as a few more mailshots in tight battles.
Is it? I distinctly remember a survation poll being within 1 or 2%. Not had any of those.
We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority
there were two polls in 2017 which were that close Qriously had a Labour 2% lead and Survation with a Tory 1% lead
And what did Qriously say today....?
13% Tory lead
Exactly. Blues chill. Breathe.
Given where Boris and Jezza have been, I don't think they believe it is 13% lead.
Weird story on R5 driving home. Apparently since the beginning of December Boris has been in Tory held seats 2:1. Corbyn has been in opposition held seats ( mainly Tory) 2:1. Given the polling shouldn’t it have been the reverse?
This Tory campaign has been better than 2017 but it did seem excessively focused on just 9 seats more from an early stage.
This to me indicates Labour thinks GTVO will be enough to hold the Labour Leave seats but Tories are deeply worried about going backwards in Remain seats.
After my first twitch at the late Labour surge, which I felt in my waters before the pollsters realised, I sense a VERY late swing back to the Tories, as voters confront the REALITY of a Jew-hating Marxist government
I had lunch with a hardcore Labour friend (who hates Corbyn) today. He said that in the polling booth he will probably grimace and reluctantly vote Labour, but he also said that his parents who are Tories just LOVE Boris and they will eagerly vote Boris.
It is reluctance versus eagerness. Eagerness wins, for Boris. Probably a small majority of 20-30 as I predicted at the beginning of this entertaining shitshow.
Yep, Labour voters just can't help voting Labour. They'd vote Labour even if led by Chairman Mao.
It's like a homing beacon that activates within them in the final days before each election. Like the Manchurian Candidate, or something.
Anecdata: talked to a lawyer, staunch Tory unionist, lives in a SNP seat w/ close-ish Tory challenger … voting tactically for SNP because of Remain. Surprised me anyway.
It only takes a quick glance at this website to surmise that remainiacs are diagnosably mad
The inclusion of updated recent Scottish, Welsh, English regional, and local opinion poll data in this forecast results in a small reduction in the size of the forecast Conservative majority.
Imagine it though, bong at 10 and Labour the largest party.
It wouldn’t be a shock. These brexit years have been so cruel on voters. Cummings is smart. And there have been solid reasons to believe HY all through these months. But they both missed the deciding factor. Lunacy. https://darkstarastrology.com/full-moon-december-2019/
Comments
The red wall has reinforced itself, why must it tease the Tories so?
The books and dvds, and to an extent the clothes, that celebs sell on the back of their fame are usually related to their talent. If Coogan made a dvd or wrote a book about politics, I doubt it would sell as well as one of his comedy
They got 2017 right mainly because they were very close to the actual national voteshare (4% instead of 2.5%), but in terms of seats it was pretty bad - they predicted only 303 tory seats on that lead instead of 317, so on a 2.5% lead their model would have probably been between 20 and 30 seats short.
We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority
I'm down 2k Tory majority, up 4.4k NOM for this reason
Surprised Betfair moved so much on the ComRes.
Opinium -12
BMG - 9
Panelbase - 9
ComRes - 5
Then also NCP - 10 (albeit not a regular pollster)
I don't have a great position, some smallish constituency bets, on low LD numbers, and con gains in Scotland. I am green on Con 360+.
I chucked in an official complaint to the BBC, and asked for a formal response. It’ll provide a bit of interest in the fallow post-election period, perhaps. I don’t care at all about the PVs (except that people circulating such nonsense is a pet hate of mine, as you may have noticed) but thought she was very poor yesterday putting out that story about the non-assault without bothering to do any checking whatsoever.
Thanks for your time sir!!
Much appreciated and will see what tomorrow brings.
Hoping to lose a lot of money on Betfair tomorrow night.
Though I won't lose as much as I won in 2017 when I did the same - Con lost majority so my bets won big time but they stayed in power - was unbelievable!
I'll get my coat....
Or on this case, Of Sleeping Dogs.
Imagine it though, bong at 10 and Labour the largest party.
Which is strangely odd to the 75% that say they will back Labour tomorrow.
That was at the height of phone gate . And so far it’s the only pollster to have done fieldwork only on those two days . That was before Ashworths idiocy .
We’d need to see another poll showing something similar or within the 5 to 7 range for later fieldwork .
I'm not buying this 'could be close' monkey business.
It's damage limitation.
This Tory campaign has been better than 2017 but it did seem excessively focused on just 9 seats more from an early stage.
It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.
That's more like news.
After my first twitch at the late Labour surge, which I felt in my waters before the pollsters realised, I sense a VERY late swing back to the Tories, as voters confront the REALITY of a Jew-hating Marxist government
I had lunch with a hardcore Labour friend (who hates Corbyn) today. He said that in the polling booth he will probably grimace and reluctantly vote Labour, but he also said that his parents who are Tories just LOVE Boris and they will eagerly vote Boris.
It is reluctance versus eagerness. Eagerness wins, for Boris. Probably a small majority of 20-30 as I predicted at the beginning of this entertaining shitshow.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204870235058319361?s=20
Nothing more to be gained from speculating on here tonight, and a long day tomorrow.
Enjoy.
It's like a homing beacon that activates within them in the final days before each election. Like the Manchurian Candidate, or something.
The forecast is here: UK-Elect Forecast December 11th 2019
Details as CSV file are here: UK-Elect Forecast Details December 11th 2019
The inclusion of updated recent Scottish, Welsh, English regional, and local opinion poll data in this forecast results in a small reduction in the size of the forecast Conservative majority.
There once was a PM called Boris
Who found in high office no solace.
"Crikes! To get Brexit done
Is really no fun,
I think I'll go back to my Horace".
Cummings is smart. And there have been solid reasons to believe HY all through these months.
But they both missed the deciding factor.
Lunacy.
https://darkstarastrology.com/full-moon-december-2019/
More maps here: UK-Elect Forecast Maps December 11th 2019